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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 09/09/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-09-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       SOX Shock
Watch List:        Steel to Oil and more!
Market Sentiment:  A Mixed Bias

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-09-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10289.10 - 24.30 10337.33 10269.49 1.70 bln 1943/1271
NASDAQ   1869.65 + 19.00  1875.39  1849.37 1.67 bln 1985/1105
S&P 100   543.89 +  0.77   545.47   541.78   Totals 3928/2376
S&P 500  1118.38 +  2.11  1121.30  1113.62 
W5000   10879.99 - 20.17 10919.16 10827.26
SOX       370.98 + 18.90   374.10   352.06
RUS 2000  566.18 +  8.39   567.73   557.79
DJ TRANS 3193.81 +  5.00  3207.11  3181.10
VIX        14.01 -  0.05    14.41    13.70
VXO (VIX-O)13.75 +  0.05    14.39    13.34
VXN        20.58 -  0.07    21.36    20.29 
Total Volume 3,662M
Total UpVol  2,560M
Total DnVol  1,015M
Total Adv  4429
Total Dcl  2747
52wk Highs  229
52wk Lows    74
TRIN       0.94
NAZTRIN    0.45
PUT/CALL   0.91
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

SOX Shock
by Jim Brown

Semiconductor bears woke up to an unpleasant surprise as
bad news from Texas Instruments sent chip stocks soaring.
The reversal of fortunes sent the Nasdaq higher but mixed
economic news failed to impress the Dow and the decline
continued. 

Dow Chart – Daily

 
Nasdaq Chart – Daily

 

Jobless Claims dropped a much larger than expected -44K
to 319,000 for last week. The huge drop was likely due
to holiday and weather related delays in filing for 
claims and the number will probably rise again next week.
The July-4th week saw a comparable -40K drop to 309,000
and those claims rebounded right back with the next report.
The -44K drop was the largest one-week drop since Dec-2001
but as an anomaly it is not relative. The market celebrated
with an opening spike but it was short lived. 

Import and Export Prices soared in August by +1.7% but
the majority of the increase was related to oil prices.
A +9.6% jump in oil prices pushed import prices higher
while export prices fell -0.5% due to a decline in 
agricultural prices. Import prices ex-oil only rose 
+0.4% in August and have increased only +3.2% over the
past year. If you don't use energy, inflation is still 
tame but for the rest of us the cost of living is still
rising. 

Wholesale Inventories also soared +1.3% and almost twice
the expected rate. Wholesale Sales only rose +0.5% and
this pushed the inventory to sales ratio to 1.16. Still
not high but the third consecutive month of growth. The 
bottom line here with the sharp rise in inventory is a
lack of equivalent demand. We are in the traditional
holiday build phase and we should see some inventory
building but there should also be sales as well or 
companies are going to be stuck holding this excess.

Also impacting the market was an unexpected draw down
in gasoline stocks of -2.5 million barrels for the week
ended Sept-3rd. Traders were expecting a gain, not a
loss. Oil also saw a loss of -1.5 million barrels. This
sent crude oil prices soaring +1.80 to $44.57 and the
short covering was heavy. This could have had some
impact on the Dow but the Nasdaq was unfazed. 

The biggest shock for the day was not oil but chips. 
Texas Instruments warned last night that Q3 revenue
would be below expectations due to weaker than expected
demand and excess inventory at customer locations. They
also said earnings would be slightly higher but not 
because of new manufacturing processes, cheaper 
components or higher prices to its customers. Earnings
would be better because its tax rate would be less 
and TXN would not have to put as much money into the
employee profit sharing plan. Neither of those factors
should have influenced chip buyers. They had nothing 
to do with the ongoing business. 

Today TXN soared +2 (+10%) to $20.75 on the news. It
appears the news was not as bad as traders had expected.
With the gloom and doom in the semi sector over the last
month the whisper number must have been much lower. One
analyst said the news from TXN was good except for the
reduction in sales and the aggressive inventory reduction
currently underway at its customer locations. Duh! That
is like saying I had a wreck on the way to work this
morning but at least I hit a police car and not a school
bus. 

Helping the TXN rebound was positive news out of Nokia,
TXN's largest customer. Nokia said it saw strong volume
in mobile devices. Also helping was a similar earnings
report from National Semi. NSM met previously lowered
results and warned that revenue for the current quarter
would fall between -8% to -10% due to excess inventory
levels at customer locations. NSM said the current 
inventory correction was very aggressive and sharper
than in previous cycles. NSM gained +1.38 to $13.47
on the news. 

SOX Chart - 60 min

 

You would expect the SOX reaction to both of these
chip warnings to be negative. If you did you were wrong.
Welcome to the club. The SOX jumped +19 points, +5.4%,
on the negative announcements. The conventional wisdom
tonight was a tremendous short squeeze in progress. Just
yesterday JPM said there was still 25% to 30% risk in
the sector and the SOX closed right at the 350 support
level. Chip bears saw the TXN jump with Nokia's help and
then the NSM earnings added fuel to the fire. Shorts
were run out of town by a lynch mob of buyers based on
the concept that the worst of the correction was almost
over. That is a big leap of faith but one many made 
on Thursday. It just proves that once the spring is 
compressed to the breaking point the resulting rebound
can and does surprise everyone on a routine basis. 

After the bell chip makers ISIL and ATML warned that
revenues would miss estimates and both dropped sharply
after the news. I guess the rebound is over. 

Also after the bell today EDS announced it was cutting 
20,000 more jobs over the next two years in an effort 
to cut another $3 billion in costs. Currently EDS has 
138,000 employees after cutting 5,000 in the prior 
round of layoffs. 

Alcoa also warned that they would miss estimates for
the quarter by a mile. Analysts had expected 52 cents
and Alcoa is now guiding to 30 to 35 cents. Alcoa said
they were plagued by labor problems and they were going
to close some plants rather than deal with the problems.
Alcoa also said they were closing plants due to over 
capacity, softness in automotive, packaging and overseas
markets as well as higher expenses in energy and ore. 

Probably the most significant news after the bell was
a court ruling in the ORCL/PSFT battle. A judge ruled
that government could not block the Oracle bid to buy
PSFT. Oracle was quick to issue a call for PeopleSoft
to meet with Oracle, redeem their poison pill and
accept the Oracle offer. Oracle claims their $21 offer
is a premium of +17% over Thursday's closing price of
$17.95. The battle is not yet over as the EU still has
to rule on the deal and PSFT is adamant that their
poison pill defense will stand. ORCL jumped about 30
cents in after hours but PSFT jumped to $20.40, a gain
of +2.45. 

The hurricane excuse is now official. Companies are
racing to warn faster than leaves in a hurricane 
claiming that the Florida storms have hurt their 
earnings. We all know that many of these are very 
valid comments but you can bet the farm there will
be those companies trying to use the storm clouds 
as cover would have warned anyway. Some valid 
companies that used the hurricane excuse today were
Brinkers, Ruby Tuesday, Royal Caribbean, many retailers
and several airlines have already warned.   

Friday is the last trading day before the 9/11 three
year anniversary. Homeland Security has been very quiet
as well as the press. However, there was a new video
from Al Qaeda today with Zawahri ridiculing the U.S.
and claiming continued attacks will end our age of
security. Officials point out that this is a pattern
for Al Qaeda of releasing videos just before 9/11 to
remind everyone of their accomplishments. In the past
the release of tapes also came immediately before some
other attacks and have been claimed to be trigger 
signals for those attacks. For me this puts additional
risk on the market for Friday and Monday. 

Tomorrow we also have the PPI and International Trade
but I would be surprised if either told us anything
we did not already know. 

For Friday we could start out with a negative bias 
due to the Alcoa warning and the two semi warnings
after the bell. The Dow pulled back on Thursday to
rest on intraday support from last Friday at 10275.
The end of day rebound was only successful in moving
the Dow off the lows but was unsuccessful in moving
very far off those lows. We are slowly ticking days 
off of the September calendar and so far we are 
following the script very closely. I would think the
Alcoa warning and nearly -2 point drop in after hours
could begin a break of that 200 dma support at 10275.
Should that support break the next support level is 
about 10150-10175. This would be a retracement of the
Sept-2nd pre Jobs report bounce. 

Dow Chart - 15 min

 

The Nasdaq was successful in rebounding off support
at 1850 solely on the back of the short covering in
the SOX. It closed the day right at the same overhead
resistance that has held all week. This was a very
strong bounce considering the Dow was negative all day.
The SOX rebound was helped by a day long series of buy 
programs in the Russell that kept the Russell over
560 until 12:45 then spiked it well over resistance
at 565. This was a very strong set of market supporting
programs. I am sure some of this was prompted by
institutional shorts in the SOX but there was a lot
of broad based buying in the Russell. The breadth of
the Russell rally pushed the volume across all the 
indexes to the highest level since August 11th. 

Russell Chart - 2 min

 

The volume ran dry about 3:PM and the indexes began
to crumble. The Russell held firm and managed to hold 
most of its gains despite the Dow moving back to near
its lows. This is a very strong show of conviction 
and turns tomorrow back into a coin flip with the SOX
doing the flip. It will all boil down to whether the
SOX can hold its gains. If the SOX rolls over then
you can bet the rest of the market will fall as well. 
The SOX rebounded to resistance just under 375 and
held 370 into the close. With ISIL and ATML warning
tonight we will get to see if the bounce was just 
short covering or do the chip buyers have some real
conviction. 

The way I see it Friday could be a pivotal day for the
September market. If we can overcome the warnings and
the 9/11 anniversary event risk then we will have a
major milestone in place. If we lose traction at the
open and it turns into a skid then the September
roadmap will come back into play and we could see 
some cautionary selling. The put/call ratio has been
high for the last couple weeks and that indicates 
there is a lot of hedging activity and probably a lot
of speculative put buying. The VIX hit a low of 13.70
today and is at the same levels seen on July-14th and
June-23rd, both cycle highs in the Dow. It sure looks
like to me we are setting up for the perfect storm
but events like the SOX rebound today and the Russell
buy programs tend to throw a kink in that outlook. I 
would continue to suggest caution as we ease farther
out on that September limb. 

In an effort to improve our service to you, we would
like your help in answering a few questions. Please 
take a minute and answer these ten questions.  
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.asp?u=61018620429

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Oregon Steel Mills - OS - close: 17.00 change: +1.97

WHAT TO WATCH: Breakout alert!  Steel stocks were big winners 
today with a major brokerage upgrading several of the big 
players.  OS may not have been upgraded but shares soared anyway 
adding 13 percent on five times the average volume.  The breakout 
over resistance at the $16.00 level is very impressive and OS has 
closed at new five-year highs.  We wouldn't want to chase OS here 
but a dip back toward the $16.00 region might be a great entry 
point for longs.




---

Premcor Inc - PCO - close: 36.82 change: +3.00

WHAT TO WATCH: PCO is another big winner today.  Most of the oil 
and gas stocks traded higher as crude oil surged more than four 
percent to $44.09 a barrel.  Yet PCO out performed most of its 
peers with an 8.8 percent rally on three times its average 
volume.  The move was fueled by PCO's positive earnings revision 
higher.  The move today pushed PCO above technical resistance at 
its 40, 50 and 100-dma's in addition to pushing the stock through 
the top of its trading range at $34.00.  We'd watch for a dip and 
then consider buying the bounce.




---

Overseas Shipping - OSG - close: 47.41 change: +2.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Water transportation and shipping stocks were 
relatively strong today.  Stocks TK and CKH turned in decent 
sessions but OSG managed a five percent rally and broke out to 
new all-time highs.  Volume was almost double the norm, which is 
good news for the bulls.  Aggressive traders may want to consider 
positions now but we're going to watch for a dip back to $46.00 
and consider a bounce.  P&F chart readers will note the new 
triple-top breakout buy signal and $60 target.




---

InterActiveCorp - IACI - close: 21.51 change: -0.68

WHAT TO WATCH: IACI should have been on our "I" list last night.  
The stock has been suffering under a trend of lower highs that 
has blossomed into a breakdown under support at $22.00.  But wait 
it gets worse.  IACI has now closed at a new low on above average 
volume and its MACD is extremely close to a new "sell" signal.  
The lack of participation in the technology rally is also bad 
news.  Add a bearish P&F chart with a $9.00 target and we may 
have a short candidate.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch 
-----------------------------------

X $39.96 +1.96 - X is another steel stock breaking out to new 
four-month highs.   However, we want to see it breakout over 
major resistance at the $40.00 mark.  Such a move would send X to 
new six-year highs and offer a tradable entry point.

GDP $11.39 +1.02 - GDP is another oil/gas play that is breaking 
out above resistance on big volume.

UCL $39.80 +0.60 - Watch UCL for a breakout over $40.15.  A move 
through this resistance would put UCL at new 4 1/2 year highs. 



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

A Mixed Bias
- J. Brown

Thursday proved to be an interesting day, especially if you were 
following oil stocks and technology stocks.  The two sectors were 
the best performing spots in the market place.  Oil stocks rose 
as crude oil price climbed more than 4 percent to $44.15 a 
barrel.  Meanwhile the Texas Instrument (TXN) mid-quarter update 
last night ignited a bounce in the SOX that continued to climb 
throughout the session.  

The strength in the SOX helped lift the entire technology sector, 
as it usually does, but the question remains, "is this a one-day 
rebound or start of something more?"  Looking more broadly at the 
market in general it was a positive day with most sector indices 
closing in the green.  Market internals were also bullish with 
advancing stocks outnumbering decliners by 17 to 10 on the NYSE 
and almost 2 to 1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume swamped down volume 
10 to 6 on the NYSE and 13 to 3 on the NASDAQ.  Overall volume 
was pretty decent and one of the best days we've seen in the last 
couple of weeks.  

Aside from the strength in stocks today investors were also 
encouraged by the weekly initial jobless claims.  The number 
dropped 44,000 to 319,000.  This was the largest drop since 
December 2001.  It's another clue that the economy is still 
improving, which should help cement another interest rate hike at 
the FOMC's September meeting.  Yet the Fed isn't just watching 
jobs data.  It's also watching the inflation picture and tomorrow 
brings the Producer Price Index for August.  

Tomorrow is a mixed bag.  The inability of the blue chips to turn 
around all day is certainly negative.  An earnings warning from 
Dow-component Alcoa (AA) after the bell tonight certainly won't 
help matters.  Wall Street was looking for 50 cents a share and 
AA now expects 30 to 35 cents a share.  Alcoa will likely be the 
main drag on the Industrials tomorrow.  

Meanwhile Oracle had some positive news after the bell this 
evening.  The software giant has won its lawsuit against the U.S. 
Department of Justice to purchase smaller rival PeopleSoft 
(PSFT).  A judge has declared the merger would not violate anti-
trust laws.  While the DoJ can appeal this is seen as a boon for 
ORCL and likely to spark a rally in the software sector tomorrow.  
Friday may prove to be a duplicate of today - blue chips down 
with technology stocks up.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10289

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10232
 50-dma: 10120
200-dma: 10274



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1118

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1111
 50-dma: 1100
200-dma: 1113



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1391

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1380
 50-dma: 1387
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.01 -0.05
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.75 +0.05
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.58 -0.70


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.91        616,250       558,939
Equity Only    0.72        483,669       349,029
OEX            1.21         22,035        26,692
QQQ            1.09         44,880        48,879


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          58.7    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    38.0    + 0     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 100       55.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.02
10-dma: 1.21
21-dma: 1.12
55-dma: 1.28


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1729      1957
Decliners    1094      1051

New Highs     100        81
New Lows       11        35

Up Volume   1061M     1293M
Down Vol.    612M      299M

Total Vol.  1694M     1650M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/31/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The latest data shows commercial traders reducing their short
positions just a tad.  They remain net bearish by only by a 
small margin.  Retail traders have upped both their longs and
shorts and the net result has been a reduction in their 
bullish enthusiasm.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/10/04      397,576   419,734   (22,158)   (2.7%)
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04      135,689    93,897    41,792    18.2%
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Wow!  We're seeing some action in the e-minis.  Commercial
traders or "smart money" has really upped their shorts while
reducing their longs.  This has produced the most bearish 
reading in a long time.  Without missing a cue the retail
traders have upped their longs to produce the most bullish 
reading in a while.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/10/04      369,547   441,055   ( 71,508)  ( 8.8%)
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04      179,940     89,239    90,701    33.7%
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders appear to be happy to sit still in the
NDX futures but small traders have increased their long 
positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/10/04       43,968     38,351     5,617    6.8%
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04       10,081    10,858    (  777)  ( 3.7%)
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Traders don't seem very willing to change their bets on 
the Industrials.  Neither the commercials or the small traders
are shifting any money around.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04       30,634    22,994    7,640      14.2%
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/10/04        6,450     8,488   (2,038)   (13.6%)
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-09-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  NVLS, ETM

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: AAPL
  Closed Bearish Plays: GLW

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        CELG, NUE

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

NVLS - tech stock short -
  The sharp rebound in the SOX semiconductor index +5.3 percent
  helped send to a 5.7 percent bounce of its own.  However, we're 
  not sure the bounce is going to see any follow through and NVLS
  remains under resistance at the $25.00 level.  We remain cautious.
 
 
ETM - non-tech short -
  ETM bucked the market's bullishness today and dropped another
  1.75 percent on heavy volume.  



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================


============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 35.70 change: -0.65 stop: 33.95

Call us chicken if you want but in this environment we want to be 
quick to take profits.  We were impressed with AAPL's new high 
over the $36.00 level yesterday but shares drifted lower down 
1.78 percent today.  The reason for the decline was a downgrade 
by Bear Stearns.  The firm cut AAPL from an "out perform" to a 
"peer perform" based on valuation saying the stock had reached 
their price target of $36.50.  Bullish traders can be encouraged 
that AAPL only lost 65 cents on the news and held support at the 
$35.00 level and its simple 10-dma.  However, we feel it's better 
to take the money and run now than have the stock dip too low in 
profit taking.  Shares are somewhat short-term overbought and due 
for a dip.  Besides we can always jump back in later.  

Picked on August 25 at $33.05 
Gain since picked:     + 2.65
Earnings Date        07/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     6.8 million 




  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Corning Inc - GLW - close: 11.09 change: +0.94 stop: 10.51

Holy Cow, Batman!  What happened to GLW today?  Shares soared 
more than 9 percent on huge volume to breakout over the $11.00 
mark and its simple 40-dma and exponential 200-dma.  Checking the 
news we see that yesterday evening the company reaffirmed its Q3 
forecast and raised its estimates on optical fiber volume.  Both 
J.P.Morgan and UBS issued positive comments on the stock 
following the news.  Shares of GLW gapped open at $10.50 and 
quickly shot higher.  We were stopped out at $10.51.  

Picked on August 24 at $10.47 
Gain since picked:     + 0.62
Earnings Date        07/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     9.9 million 




==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------
CELG designs a 2-for-1 split 

This afternoon Celgene Corp (NASDAQ:CELG) announced that its Board 
of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split.

The split will be payable as a 100 percent stock dividend on 
October 22nd, 2004 to shareholders on record as of October 15th.  
Shares will trade post-split on October 25th.


About the company:
Celgene Corporation, headquartered in Warren, New Jersey, is an 
integrated biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the 
discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapies 
for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through gene 
and protein regulation. (source: company press release)

--

NUE smelts a 2-for-1 split 

Business is booming at Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE).  This morning before 
the opening bell the company raised its Q3 earnings guidance, 
declared a 2-for-1 stock split and raised its cash dividend 24%.  

The company now expects $4.40-4.60 per share for just the third 
quarter.  

The Board of Directors approved the 2-for-1 stock split to be 
payable on October 15th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of 
September 30th.

The BoD also raised the cash dividend to 26 cents per share on a 
pre-split basis.  The cash dividend is payable on November 11th, 
2004 to shareholders on record as of September 30th.


About the company:
Nucor is the largest steel producer in the United States and is 
the nation's largest recycler. Nucor and affiliates are 
manufacturers of steel products, with operating facilities in 
fourteen states. Products produced are: carbon and alloy steel - 
in bars, beams, sheet and plate; steel joists and joist girders; 
steel deck; cold finished steel; steel fasteners; metal building 
systems; and light gauge steel framing. (source: company press 
release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SI      Siemens Aktien             72.49     +0.53
CVX     ChevronTexaco             100.89     +1.09
NOK     Nokia Corp                 13.79     +1.08
IBM     Intl Business Machines     86.42     +0.56
COP     ConocoPhillips             77.93     +1.26
NXTL    Nextel Communications      23.85     +0.66

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CMVT    Comverse Technology        18.60     +1.10
NVDA    NVIDIA Corp                13.55     +1.23
AGIX    Atherogenics Inc           18.79     +1.54
OS      Oregon Steel Mills         16.99     +1.96
ICPT    Intercept Inc              18.51     +1.06
GDP     Goodrich Petrol Corp       11.40     +1.03

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
TXN     Texas Instruments          20.72     +1.89
YUM     YUM! Brands                40.61     +1.28
MUR     Murphy Oil                 81.00     +2.72
POT     Potash Corp                59.27     +1.12
NUE     Nucor Corp                 88.46     +6.16
MRVL    Marvell Technology         25.42     +2.28
TS      Tenaris Sa                 43.49     +3.57

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AZN     AstraZeneca                44.25     -2.80
ITW     Illinois Tool Works        89.81     -1.82
MGA     Magna Intl Inc             73.65     -1.38
JNY     Jones Apparel Group        34.68     -1.32
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            34.16     -2.60
AXL     American Axle & Mfg        33.21     -1.12
NTES    Netease.com Inc            33.99     -1.78
RCII    Rent-A-Center              26.20     -4.43

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NKE     Nike Inc                   75.06     -2.29
SPG     Simon Property Group       54.77     -1.78
BLK     Blackrock Inc              72.54     -2.45
BLL     Ball Corp                  36.81     -1.43
MAC     Macerich Co                53.81     -1.98


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