PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 09-09-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: SOX Shock Watch List: Steel to Oil and more! Market Sentiment: A Mixed Bias ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 09-09-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10289.10 - 24.30 10337.33 10269.49 1.70 bln 1943/1271 NASDAQ 1869.65 + 19.00 1875.39 1849.37 1.67 bln 1985/1105 S&P 100 543.89 + 0.77 545.47 541.78 Totals 3928/2376 S&P 500 1118.38 + 2.11 1121.30 1113.62 W5000 10879.99 - 20.17 10919.16 10827.26 SOX 370.98 + 18.90 374.10 352.06 RUS 2000 566.18 + 8.39 567.73 557.79 DJ TRANS 3193.81 + 5.00 3207.11 3181.10 VIX 14.01 - 0.05 14.41 13.70 VXO (VIX-O)13.75 + 0.05 14.39 13.34 VXN 20.58 - 0.07 21.36 20.29 Total Volume 3,662M Total UpVol 2,560M Total DnVol 1,015M Total Adv 4429 Total Dcl 2747 52wk Highs 229 52wk Lows 74 TRIN 0.94 NAZTRIN 0.45 PUT/CALL 0.91 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== SOX Shock by Jim Brown Semiconductor bears woke up to an unpleasant surprise as bad news from Texas Instruments sent chip stocks soaring. The reversal of fortunes sent the Nasdaq higher but mixed economic news failed to impress the Dow and the decline continued. Dow Chart – Daily Nasdaq Chart – Daily Jobless Claims dropped a much larger than expected -44K to 319,000 for last week. The huge drop was likely due to holiday and weather related delays in filing for claims and the number will probably rise again next week. The July-4th week saw a comparable -40K drop to 309,000 and those claims rebounded right back with the next report. The -44K drop was the largest one-week drop since Dec-2001 but as an anomaly it is not relative. The market celebrated with an opening spike but it was short lived. Import and Export Prices soared in August by +1.7% but the majority of the increase was related to oil prices. A +9.6% jump in oil prices pushed import prices higher while export prices fell -0.5% due to a decline in agricultural prices. Import prices ex-oil only rose +0.4% in August and have increased only +3.2% over the past year. If you don't use energy, inflation is still tame but for the rest of us the cost of living is still rising. Wholesale Inventories also soared +1.3% and almost twice the expected rate. Wholesale Sales only rose +0.5% and this pushed the inventory to sales ratio to 1.16. Still not high but the third consecutive month of growth. The bottom line here with the sharp rise in inventory is a lack of equivalent demand. We are in the traditional holiday build phase and we should see some inventory building but there should also be sales as well or companies are going to be stuck holding this excess. Also impacting the market was an unexpected draw down in gasoline stocks of -2.5 million barrels for the week ended Sept-3rd. Traders were expecting a gain, not a loss. Oil also saw a loss of -1.5 million barrels. This sent crude oil prices soaring +1.80 to $44.57 and the short covering was heavy. This could have had some impact on the Dow but the Nasdaq was unfazed. The biggest shock for the day was not oil but chips. Texas Instruments warned last night that Q3 revenue would be below expectations due to weaker than expected demand and excess inventory at customer locations. They also said earnings would be slightly higher but not because of new manufacturing processes, cheaper components or higher prices to its customers. Earnings would be better because its tax rate would be less and TXN would not have to put as much money into the employee profit sharing plan. Neither of those factors should have influenced chip buyers. They had nothing to do with the ongoing business. Today TXN soared +2 (+10%) to $20.75 on the news. It appears the news was not as bad as traders had expected. With the gloom and doom in the semi sector over the last month the whisper number must have been much lower. One analyst said the news from TXN was good except for the reduction in sales and the aggressive inventory reduction currently underway at its customer locations. Duh! That is like saying I had a wreck on the way to work this morning but at least I hit a police car and not a school bus. Helping the TXN rebound was positive news out of Nokia, TXN's largest customer. Nokia said it saw strong volume in mobile devices. Also helping was a similar earnings report from National Semi. NSM met previously lowered results and warned that revenue for the current quarter would fall between -8% to -10% due to excess inventory levels at customer locations. NSM said the current inventory correction was very aggressive and sharper than in previous cycles. NSM gained +1.38 to $13.47 on the news. SOX Chart - 60 min You would expect the SOX reaction to both of these chip warnings to be negative. If you did you were wrong. Welcome to the club. The SOX jumped +19 points, +5.4%, on the negative announcements. The conventional wisdom tonight was a tremendous short squeeze in progress. Just yesterday JPM said there was still 25% to 30% risk in the sector and the SOX closed right at the 350 support level. Chip bears saw the TXN jump with Nokia's help and then the NSM earnings added fuel to the fire. Shorts were run out of town by a lynch mob of buyers based on the concept that the worst of the correction was almost over. That is a big leap of faith but one many made on Thursday. It just proves that once the spring is compressed to the breaking point the resulting rebound can and does surprise everyone on a routine basis. After the bell chip makers ISIL and ATML warned that revenues would miss estimates and both dropped sharply after the news. I guess the rebound is over. Also after the bell today EDS announced it was cutting 20,000 more jobs over the next two years in an effort to cut another $3 billion in costs. Currently EDS has 138,000 employees after cutting 5,000 in the prior round of layoffs. Alcoa also warned that they would miss estimates for the quarter by a mile. Analysts had expected 52 cents and Alcoa is now guiding to 30 to 35 cents. Alcoa said they were plagued by labor problems and they were going to close some plants rather than deal with the problems. Alcoa also said they were closing plants due to over capacity, softness in automotive, packaging and overseas markets as well as higher expenses in energy and ore. Probably the most significant news after the bell was a court ruling in the ORCL/PSFT battle. A judge ruled that government could not block the Oracle bid to buy PSFT. Oracle was quick to issue a call for PeopleSoft to meet with Oracle, redeem their poison pill and accept the Oracle offer. Oracle claims their $21 offer is a premium of +17% over Thursday's closing price of $17.95. The battle is not yet over as the EU still has to rule on the deal and PSFT is adamant that their poison pill defense will stand. ORCL jumped about 30 cents in after hours but PSFT jumped to $20.40, a gain of +2.45. The hurricane excuse is now official. Companies are racing to warn faster than leaves in a hurricane claiming that the Florida storms have hurt their earnings. We all know that many of these are very valid comments but you can bet the farm there will be those companies trying to use the storm clouds as cover would have warned anyway. Some valid companies that used the hurricane excuse today were Brinkers, Ruby Tuesday, Royal Caribbean, many retailers and several airlines have already warned. Friday is the last trading day before the 9/11 three year anniversary. Homeland Security has been very quiet as well as the press. However, there was a new video from Al Qaeda today with Zawahri ridiculing the U.S. and claiming continued attacks will end our age of security. Officials point out that this is a pattern for Al Qaeda of releasing videos just before 9/11 to remind everyone of their accomplishments. In the past the release of tapes also came immediately before some other attacks and have been claimed to be trigger signals for those attacks. For me this puts additional risk on the market for Friday and Monday. Tomorrow we also have the PPI and International Trade but I would be surprised if either told us anything we did not already know. For Friday we could start out with a negative bias due to the Alcoa warning and the two semi warnings after the bell. The Dow pulled back on Thursday to rest on intraday support from last Friday at 10275. The end of day rebound was only successful in moving the Dow off the lows but was unsuccessful in moving very far off those lows. We are slowly ticking days off of the September calendar and so far we are following the script very closely. I would think the Alcoa warning and nearly -2 point drop in after hours could begin a break of that 200 dma support at 10275. Should that support break the next support level is about 10150-10175. This would be a retracement of the Sept-2nd pre Jobs report bounce. Dow Chart - 15 min The Nasdaq was successful in rebounding off support at 1850 solely on the back of the short covering in the SOX. It closed the day right at the same overhead resistance that has held all week. This was a very strong bounce considering the Dow was negative all day. The SOX rebound was helped by a day long series of buy programs in the Russell that kept the Russell over 560 until 12:45 then spiked it well over resistance at 565. This was a very strong set of market supporting programs. I am sure some of this was prompted by institutional shorts in the SOX but there was a lot of broad based buying in the Russell. The breadth of the Russell rally pushed the volume across all the indexes to the highest level since August 11th. Russell Chart - 2 min The volume ran dry about 3:PM and the indexes began to crumble. The Russell held firm and managed to hold most of its gains despite the Dow moving back to near its lows. This is a very strong show of conviction and turns tomorrow back into a coin flip with the SOX doing the flip. It will all boil down to whether the SOX can hold its gains. If the SOX rolls over then you can bet the rest of the market will fall as well. The SOX rebounded to resistance just under 375 and held 370 into the close. With ISIL and ATML warning tonight we will get to see if the bounce was just short covering or do the chip buyers have some real conviction. The way I see it Friday could be a pivotal day for the September market. If we can overcome the warnings and the 9/11 anniversary event risk then we will have a major milestone in place. If we lose traction at the open and it turns into a skid then the September roadmap will come back into play and we could see some cautionary selling. The put/call ratio has been high for the last couple weeks and that indicates there is a lot of hedging activity and probably a lot of speculative put buying. The VIX hit a low of 13.70 today and is at the same levels seen on July-14th and June-23rd, both cycle highs in the Dow. It sure looks like to me we are setting up for the perfect storm but events like the SOX rebound today and the Russell buy programs tend to throw a kink in that outlook. I would continue to suggest caution as we ease farther out on that September limb. In an effort to improve our service to you, we would like your help in answering a few questions. Please take a minute and answer these ten questions. http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.asp?u=61018620429 Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Oregon Steel Mills - OS - close: 17.00 change: +1.97 WHAT TO WATCH: Breakout alert! Steel stocks were big winners today with a major brokerage upgrading several of the big players. OS may not have been upgraded but shares soared anyway adding 13 percent on five times the average volume. The breakout over resistance at the $16.00 level is very impressive and OS has closed at new five-year highs. We wouldn't want to chase OS here but a dip back toward the $16.00 region might be a great entry point for longs. --- Premcor Inc - PCO - close: 36.82 change: +3.00 WHAT TO WATCH: PCO is another big winner today. Most of the oil and gas stocks traded higher as crude oil surged more than four percent to $44.09 a barrel. Yet PCO out performed most of its peers with an 8.8 percent rally on three times its average volume. The move was fueled by PCO's positive earnings revision higher. The move today pushed PCO above technical resistance at its 40, 50 and 100-dma's in addition to pushing the stock through the top of its trading range at $34.00. We'd watch for a dip and then consider buying the bounce. --- Overseas Shipping - OSG - close: 47.41 change: +2.29 WHAT TO WATCH: Water transportation and shipping stocks were relatively strong today. Stocks TK and CKH turned in decent sessions but OSG managed a five percent rally and broke out to new all-time highs. Volume was almost double the norm, which is good news for the bulls. Aggressive traders may want to consider positions now but we're going to watch for a dip back to $46.00 and consider a bounce. P&F chart readers will note the new triple-top breakout buy signal and $60 target. --- InterActiveCorp - IACI - close: 21.51 change: -0.68 WHAT TO WATCH: IACI should have been on our "I" list last night. The stock has been suffering under a trend of lower highs that has blossomed into a breakdown under support at $22.00. But wait it gets worse. IACI has now closed at a new low on above average volume and its MACD is extremely close to a new "sell" signal. The lack of participation in the technology rally is also bad news. Add a bearish P&F chart with a $9.00 target and we may have a short candidate. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- X $39.96 +1.96 - X is another steel stock breaking out to new four-month highs. However, we want to see it breakout over major resistance at the $40.00 mark. Such a move would send X to new six-year highs and offer a tradable entry point. GDP $11.39 +1.02 - GDP is another oil/gas play that is breaking out above resistance on big volume. UCL $39.80 +0.60 - Watch UCL for a breakout over $40.15. A move through this resistance would put UCL at new 4 1/2 year highs. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== A Mixed Bias - J. Brown Thursday proved to be an interesting day, especially if you were following oil stocks and technology stocks. The two sectors were the best performing spots in the market place. Oil stocks rose as crude oil price climbed more than 4 percent to $44.15 a barrel. Meanwhile the Texas Instrument (TXN) mid-quarter update last night ignited a bounce in the SOX that continued to climb throughout the session. The strength in the SOX helped lift the entire technology sector, as it usually does, but the question remains, "is this a one-day rebound or start of something more?" Looking more broadly at the market in general it was a positive day with most sector indices closing in the green. Market internals were also bullish with advancing stocks outnumbering decliners by 17 to 10 on the NYSE and almost 2 to 1 on the NASDAQ. Up volume swamped down volume 10 to 6 on the NYSE and 13 to 3 on the NASDAQ. Overall volume was pretty decent and one of the best days we've seen in the last couple of weeks. Aside from the strength in stocks today investors were also encouraged by the weekly initial jobless claims. The number dropped 44,000 to 319,000. This was the largest drop since December 2001. It's another clue that the economy is still improving, which should help cement another interest rate hike at the FOMC's September meeting. Yet the Fed isn't just watching jobs data. It's also watching the inflation picture and tomorrow brings the Producer Price Index for August. Tomorrow is a mixed bag. The inability of the blue chips to turn around all day is certainly negative. An earnings warning from Dow-component Alcoa (AA) after the bell tonight certainly won't help matters. Wall Street was looking for 50 cents a share and AA now expects 30 to 35 cents a share. Alcoa will likely be the main drag on the Industrials tomorrow. Meanwhile Oracle had some positive news after the bell this evening. The software giant has won its lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Justice to purchase smaller rival PeopleSoft (PSFT). A judge has declared the merger would not violate anti- trust laws. While the DoJ can appeal this is seen as a boon for ORCL and likely to spark a rally in the software sector tomorrow. Friday may prove to be a duplicate of today - blue chips down with technology stocks up. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9230 Current : 10289 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10232 50-dma: 10120 200-dma: 10274 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 990 Current : 1118 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1111 50-dma: 1100 200-dma: 1113 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1391 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1380 50-dma: 1387 200-dma: 1440 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.01 -0.05 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 13.75 +0.05 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 20.58 -0.70 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.91 616,250 558,939 Equity Only 0.72 483,669 349,029 OEX 1.21 22,035 26,692 QQQ 1.09 44,880 48,879 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 58.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 38.0 + 0 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 56.6 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 56.6 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 100 55.0 + 0 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.02 10-dma: 1.21 21-dma: 1.12 55-dma: 1.28 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1729 1957 Decliners 1094 1051 New Highs 100 81 New Lows 11 35 Up Volume 1061M 1293M Down Vol. 612M 299M Total Vol. 1694M 1650M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/31/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 The latest data shows commercial traders reducing their short positions just a tad. They remain net bearish by only by a small margin. Retail traders have upped both their longs and shorts and the net result has been a reduction in their bullish enthusiasm. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/10/04 397,576 419,734 (22,158) (2.7%) 08/17/04 398,472 416,109 (17,637) (2.2%) 08/24/04 402,599 420,478 (17,879) (2.2%) 08/31/04 406,637 416,778 (10,141) (1.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 135,689 93,897 41,792 18.2% 08/17/04 138,550 97,792 40,758 17.2% 08/24/04 135,151 100,351 34,800 14.7% 08/31/04 144,120 114,343 29,777 11.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Wow! We're seeing some action in the e-minis. Commercial traders or "smart money" has really upped their shorts while reducing their longs. This has produced the most bearish reading in a long time. Without missing a cue the retail traders have upped their longs to produce the most bullish reading in a while. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/10/04 369,547 441,055 ( 71,508) ( 8.8%) 08/17/04 404,065 457,372 ( 53,307) ( 6.2%) 08/24/04 392,065 473,911 ( 81,846) ( 9.4%) 08/31/04 372,071 543,100 (171,029) (18.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 179,940 89,239 90,701 33.7% 08/17/04 192,939 92,361 100,578 35.3% 08/24/04 211,995 76,184 135,811 47.1% 08/31/04 258,624 77,036 181,588 54.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders appear to be happy to sit still in the NDX futures but small traders have increased their long positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 43,968 38,351 5,617 6.8% 08/17/04 44,743 41,535 3,208 3.7% 08/24/04 48,624 43,222 5,402 5.8% 08/31/04 48,167 43,411 4,756 5.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 10,081 10,858 ( 777) ( 3.7%) 08/17/04 12,256 8,352 3,904 18.9% 08/24/04 11,666 10,068 1,598 7.3% 08/31/04 14,635 10,572 4,063 16.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Traders don't seem very willing to change their bets on the Industrials. Neither the commercials or the small traders are shifting any money around. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 30,634 22,994 7,640 14.2% 08/17/04 30,271 22,809 7,462 14.1% 08/24/04 28,919 23,658 5,261 10.1% 08/31/04 29,143 24,147 4,996 9.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/10/04 6,450 8,488 (2,038) (13.6%) 08/17/04 4,388 7,089 (2,701) (23.5%) 08/24/04 5,052 7,214 (2,162) (17.6%) 08/31/04 4,929 7,122 (2,193) (18.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 09-09-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: NVLS, ETM Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) Closed Bullish Plays: AAPL Closed Bearish Plays: GLW Stock Splits Announcements: CELG, NUE Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== NVLS - tech stock short - The sharp rebound in the SOX semiconductor index +5.3 percent helped send to a 5.7 percent bounce of its own. However, we're not sure the bounce is going to see any follow through and NVLS remains under resistance at the $25.00 level. We remain cautious. ETM - non-tech short - ETM bucked the market's bullishness today and dropped another 1.75 percent on heavy volume. ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 35.70 change: -0.65 stop: 33.95 Call us chicken if you want but in this environment we want to be quick to take profits. We were impressed with AAPL's new high over the $36.00 level yesterday but shares drifted lower down 1.78 percent today. The reason for the decline was a downgrade by Bear Stearns. The firm cut AAPL from an "out perform" to a "peer perform" based on valuation saying the stock had reached their price target of $36.50. Bullish traders can be encouraged that AAPL only lost 65 cents on the news and held support at the $35.00 level and its simple 10-dma. However, we feel it's better to take the money and run now than have the stock dip too low in profit taking. Shares are somewhat short-term overbought and due for a dip. Besides we can always jump back in later. Picked on August 25 at $33.05 Gain since picked: + 2.65 Earnings Date 07/14/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 6.8 million Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Corning Inc - GLW - close: 11.09 change: +0.94 stop: 10.51 Holy Cow, Batman! What happened to GLW today? Shares soared more than 9 percent on huge volume to breakout over the $11.00 mark and its simple 40-dma and exponential 200-dma. Checking the news we see that yesterday evening the company reaffirmed its Q3 forecast and raised its estimates on optical fiber volume. Both J.P.Morgan and UBS issued positive comments on the stock following the news. Shares of GLW gapped open at $10.50 and quickly shot higher. We were stopped out at $10.51. Picked on August 24 at $10.47 Gain since picked: + 0.62 Earnings Date 07/19/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 9.9 million ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- CELG designs a 2-for-1 split This afternoon Celgene Corp (NASDAQ:CELG) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split. The split will be payable as a 100 percent stock dividend on October 22nd, 2004 to shareholders on record as of October 15th. Shares will trade post-split on October 25th. About the company: Celgene Corporation, headquartered in Warren, New Jersey, is an integrated biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through gene and protein regulation. (source: company press release) -- NUE smelts a 2-for-1 split Business is booming at Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE). This morning before the opening bell the company raised its Q3 earnings guidance, declared a 2-for-1 stock split and raised its cash dividend 24%. The company now expects $4.40-4.60 per share for just the third quarter. The Board of Directors approved the 2-for-1 stock split to be payable on October 15th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 30th. The BoD also raised the cash dividend to 26 cents per share on a pre-split basis. The cash dividend is payable on November 11th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 30th. About the company: Nucor is the largest steel producer in the United States and is the nation's largest recycler. Nucor and affiliates are manufacturers of steel products, with operating facilities in fourteen states. Products produced are: carbon and alloy steel - in bars, beams, sheet and plate; steel joists and joist girders; steel deck; cold finished steel; steel fasteners; metal building systems; and light gauge steel framing. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SI Siemens Aktien 72.49 +0.53 CVX ChevronTexaco 100.89 +1.09 NOK Nokia Corp 13.79 +1.08 IBM Intl Business Machines 86.42 +0.56 COP ConocoPhillips 77.93 +1.26 NXTL Nextel Communications 23.85 +0.66 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- CMVT Comverse Technology 18.60 +1.10 NVDA NVIDIA Corp 13.55 +1.23 AGIX Atherogenics Inc 18.79 +1.54 OS Oregon Steel Mills 16.99 +1.96 ICPT Intercept Inc 18.51 +1.06 GDP Goodrich Petrol Corp 11.40 +1.03 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TXN Texas Instruments 20.72 +1.89 YUM YUM! Brands 40.61 +1.28 MUR Murphy Oil 81.00 +2.72 POT Potash Corp 59.27 +1.12 NUE Nucor Corp 88.46 +6.16 MRVL Marvell Technology 25.42 +2.28 TS Tenaris Sa 43.49 +3.57 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AZN AstraZeneca 44.25 -2.80 ITW Illinois Tool Works 89.81 -1.82 MGA Magna Intl Inc 73.65 -1.38 JNY Jones Apparel Group 34.68 -1.32 CHS Chico's FAS Inc 34.16 -2.60 AXL American Axle & Mfg 33.21 -1.12 NTES Netease.com Inc 33.99 -1.78 RCII Rent-A-Center 26.20 -4.43 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- NKE Nike Inc 75.06 -2.29 SPG Simon Property Group 54.77 -1.78 BLK Blackrock Inc 72.54 -2.45 BLL Ball Corp 36.81 -1.43 MAC Macerich Co 53.81 -1.98 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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