Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 09/12/2004

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-12-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Bush Wins!        
Market Sentiment: Grab Those Seatbelts!    
Watch List:  Networking to Trendy Apparel         

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 9-10         WE 9-03         WE 8-27         WE 8-20 
DOW    10313.07 + 52.87 10260.2 + 65.19 10195.0 + 84.91 +284.79 
Nasdaq  1894.31 + 49.83 1844.48 - 17.61 1862.09 + 31.07 + 73.80 
S&P-100  546.25 +  5.19  541.06 +  0.18  540.88 +  4.84 + 15.32 
S&P-500 1123.92 + 10.29 1113.63 +  5.86 1107.77 +  9.42 + 33.55 
W5000  10936.32 +115.44 10820.9 + 65.86 10755.0 +106.22 +344.09 
SOX      383.61 + 25.77  357.84 - 24.50  382.34 -  3.66 + 19.35 
RUT      569.91 + 13.67  556.24 +  4.57  551.67 +  3.75 + 30.53 
TRAN    3224.38 + 82.53 3141.85 + 33.05 3108.80 + 17.93 +123.95  
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Bush Wins!
by Jim Brown

No, there are no newspaper headlines claiming a win 
before the final ballots are cast but the markets appear
to already be trading on the news. With the polls showing 
a widening gap between Kerry and Bush the Republican 
market was celebrating early on Friday. At least that
is what the talking heads on CNBC would have you 
believe.

Dow Chart – Daily

 
Nasdaq Chart – Daily

 
SOX Chart - 60 min

 

The economics were positive on Friday with the PPI at
-0.1% well below the expected +0.2% level. Don't let 
that lower inflation number surprise you because falling
prices on new cars was primarily the reason. The auto
manufacturers are literally giving away cars to keep 
the production lines busy. Food prices also continued
to fall with a -0.2% drop for the month. The core rate
continued to rise at +1.0% and stretched the string of
gains to thirteen consecutive months. This will keep the
Fed on track for a continued rate hike program. 

International Trade reversed half of last months $8.9 
billion deficit increase with a drop of -$4.9 billion
in the current July report. Exports increased and 
imports fell with exports increasing +7.8%. Imports 
decreased -1.5%. Obviously falling oil prices accounted
for the majority of the decrease in imports. The recent
soft patch in the economy should continue to undermine
imports and that should continue to help the ratios for
the next several months. China is still growing at a 
+8% clip and we are supplying much of their raw materials
and basic components which should keep our export numbers
at the present level or higher. 

Market sentiment was also positive on Friday despite an
earnings warning by Alcoa and several chip stocks. The
Alcoa warning knocked the Dow back under support at 
10250 with a -2.50 drop in the Dow component. The Dow
rebounded and held just over 10250 until 2:15 despite
several attempts to push it lower. At 2:15 a major buy
program hit and pushed the index back into positive 
territory and back over 10300 resistance. 

The SOX roared out of the gate with barely even a 
token dip from the three chip warnings since yesterday's
close. The SOX tacked on another +12 points, +3.4% to
Thursday's +5% gain. The SOX closed at 383 and well
above the 351 low on Wednesday. Chip analysts are
scratching their heads on the rebound and wondering
about the validity of their mass downgrades three days
earlier. 

The Russell has exploded from the 520 low back on August
19th to close at 570 on Friday. Volume in the small caps
has been growing daily and there appears to be no end
in sight. The volume on the Nasdaq where most R2K stocks
trade has risen to over 1.6B shares for the last two days
and levels not seen in nearly a month. 

The Nasdaq has rebounded from its August low of 1751 
to close just below 1900 on Friday. Much of the Nasdaq
bounce this week has been related to the SOX rebound.
The SOX rebound helped the Russell, which in turn helped
the Nasdaq. They are all interrelated and one does not
move far without the others. 

After the smoke cleared on Friday I sat there looking
at the charts in amazement. We had expected a post 
Labor Day rally but not the way it was delivered. The
beginning of the week was weak at best with the SOX
dragging down all the techs. The Nasdaq traded in a
very narrow 1850-1865 range up until noon on Thursday
when the buy programs began their rapid fire launch.
The Dow gapped open on Tuesday and then declined to
Friday's low in an exact reversal of the Nasdaq move.
Remember this chart I posted on Thursday night?

Dow Chart - 15 min

   
 

I explained that a break of the support at 10275 could
put the Dow at risk to 10150. That support broke and
the Dow traded in negative territory all day until 2:15.
At 2:15 a buy program hit that added +1100 issues to the
A/D line and lifted all markets. You can clearly see from
the chart above that the buying was not retail activity.
It was clearly a very strong buy program very similar to
the one on Sept-2nd. 

Ok, here is the million-dollar question. Why buy? What
overriding reason was there to launch a program covering
1000 different stocks on Friday afternoon before the 9/11
anniversary? There were many reasons mentioned on the 
various services I monitor. 

Oil was initially given as the primary reason. Positive
comments from OPEC knocked oil off it's $44.95 high for
the day and into a -$2.50 freefall. It closed at $42.65
and gave back all the gains from Thursday. That may have
induced some portfolio managers to add to positions but
I doubt it was reason for that major buy program. You only
have to look at the oil volatility for the week to realize
the gyrations in oil prices did not translate into stock
prices.  

Oil Chart - 15 min 

   


Another reason given was Bush gains in the opinion 
polls. According to one major survey Bush now has a
+9 point lead over Kerry. While the market is commonly
thought of as Republican I have a hard time seeing 
this as a death bed conversion sort of thing. With 
the Dow teetering on the edge of a major drop all
day why would the poll news which had been out all 
day suddenly prompt a major buy program? I doubt 
some fund manager just walked into his office from
a golf outing to hear the news and then shout buy
stocks into his intercom. I agree with the various
surveys showing the market tracking with the ebb and
flow of Bush's chances but not on an intraday basis. 

Other analysts suggested that the bad news for the 
third quarter was already priced in and traders had 
decided the worst was over. If this is the case then
it would be contrary to most Septembers in recent
memory as most late September declines come on the
exact earnings weakness we are seeing now. If this
was the case then why was the buying not broader and
longer throughout the day? It would have been a more 
general sentiment and not something that could be 
exactly measured to the minute on the charts. Look
at the chart above. It was not widespread market
sentiment but only a single event.  
 
Let me repeat the question. Why would a major buy
program appear late on a Friday afternoon the day
before the 9/11 anniversary? I think the key to the
answer is in the question. Why would Al Qaeda release
a new video tape two days before the 9/11 anniversary?
It is simple. They wanted to remind the world of the
attack and try to exert some terrorist pressure on the
world scene. They would have liked nothing better than
to see our markets sell off in fear of an anniversary
attack. 

I believe there was a market support program running
on Thursday and Friday that was planned to prevent
any pre-9/11 decline. Call it anything you want and
put any entity you want behind it but I believe it
existed. You can choose to believe or not but it does
not change the facts. We saw underlying support
on Thursday and every dip was met with just enough
volume to prevent a Dow meltdown. The Alcoa news broke
that deadlock on Friday morning. The Dow and SPX were 
weak all morning but every dip was met with strong order
flow in the futures market. It was constantly lurking 
just under the bid and prevented a continuation drop 
from the morning gap down. For the two hours before 
the buy program appeared volume slowed to a crawl. The 
internals weakened several times but each time just
enough volume appeared to prevent a dip. As the clock
ticked down the selling pressure increased and a huge
battle began at support. Volume increased on both sides
but regardless of the amount of selling pressure the
volume at bid was always just enough to maintain the
status quo. I don't care how long you have been trading
it does not take an Einstein to realize this was not
normal activity for a September Friday. 

I believe the 2:15 buy program was insurance to prevent
an end of day volume surge on the sell side. Instead
of waiting for everybody else to pull the trigger on
the sell side the best defense is a strong offense. A
sharply rising market is a strong offensive move against
those that might be scared to hold over the weekend. 
Once the massive program triggered, those already short
and waiting for the end of day decline, were forced to
cover and the spike became self perpetuating. An 
excellent chess move by whomever was orchestrating the
event. 

Again, believe me or not, it does not matter. What
matters is how we react to it for Monday. "IF" it 
was an artificial bounce and done for market support
reasons prior to 9/11 then what happens when that 
support is withdrawn? Even if it was just a valid 
buy program from some large fund or a large asset 
allocation program it is just history now. Each day 
we get to start over with a clean slate. The excesses
of the prior day are forgotten as new strategies are
implemented based on millions of different variables
by millions of investors. The only things constant 
are the long term historical trends and the current
market sentiment.  

There are few market trends more constant than the 
relationship of the VIX to the markets. When the VIX
is low it is time to go. When the VIX is high it is
time to buy. This adage has survived years of market
cycles and while it should not be used as an instant
indicator of market direction it is a very valuable
tool in a traders toolkit. Extreme swings normally
produce the expected reaction within a very short
period of time. Friday was an extreme swing day and
the VXO (old VIX) set a new 52-week low. This was
a climax low after four weeks of declines from the
August-13th high of 20.03, which corresponded EXACTLY
with the SPX low of 1060 and the Dow low of 9783. Had
you been watching the VXO then and acted upon it your
results over the last four weeks would have been very
strong. 

The challenge is knowing when a high is a high and a
low is a low. Those things are not normally known until
several days later. The touch of a new 52-week low on
Friday is a major warning signal for the bulls. In the
following chart I have highlighted each time the VXO
neared 14.0 over the last year. I contrasted it with
the SPX. Obviously the more dramatic the move from 
the VXO highs to the lows the more dramatic the 
reversal in the SPX. 

VXO:SPX Chart – Daily

 


The next chart compares the VXO to the Dow and adds the
downtrend resistance since February. By comparing the
VXO levels to the resistance levels on the Dow we are
able to narrow our focus and predict a higher correlation
of expected events. 

VXO:DOW Chart

 
  
Adding in the VXN in comparison to the NDX chart gives us
a broader view and another correlation of the same event. 
The VXN has only broken below 20 three times in the past
year. In late June it stayed below 20 for nine consecutive
days before the July-1st correction began that knocked 
over -200 points off the NDX and -300 points off the 
Nasdaq Composite. During those nine days the NDX added
points but the strain was beginning to show. 

VXN-NDX Chart

   


What I want to get across today is the warning signal.
I am not suggesting that Monday will begin an implosion
that takes us back to new lows. I am only suggesting 
that next week could be dangerous. 

Consider the facts. September is the worst month of
the year followed by October which is the second worst.
The majority of earnings guidance we have been seeing
has been negative. The economy is going to lose 
billions in Q3 earnings, wages and GDP as a result of
the hurricanes. It will eventually add billions more in
GDP as the rebuilding effort gets underway but that will
not be seen until Q4. The SOX has rebounded well above 
reasonable expectations and to strong resistance at
385-390. The next ten points will be more difficult.
The Russell is way overextended from its +50 point
rebound and at resistance at 570. The SPX has resistance
dating back to January at 1125 and it closed at 1124.
The Dow has resistance at 10315 and exactly where it
closed on Friday. The Nasdaq has strong resistance at
1900-1925 and closed at 1894. 

Moving higher from here will not be easy. Not impossible
but not easy. The scenario as I see it can go two ways.
The Friday buy program was just another of many real
efforts to get invested before the election and funds
are going to disregard the historical Sep/Oct weakness.
If this scenario is correct a move over 1125 on Monday
will attract a lot of short covering and buyers wanting
to be long before fall will have to race to chase prices.
This is a very valid scenario and would result in new
lows on the volatility indexes and increasing pressure
in the marketplace. Eventually the volatility spring
must release and it is only a question of when not if.
Still we could be 100 points higher by then and buyers
can't risk standing idly by and watching the train leave
the station. 

The second scenario assumes the Friday buy program was
a unique event and not something that will be repeated
on Monday. The rebound on the SOX will lose traction 
at 385-390 and resume its decline or at least see some
profit taking from the short covering bounce. This will
pressure the Nasdaq and the Russell and the bubble will
burst into a normal September decline. This decline will
be bought aggressively once the profits are harvested. 

We definitely want to be long before mid October and
with everyone having the same game plan that could 
mean early October. How much investors will ignore
the October earnings cycle is still under discussion.
We think we know how bad Q3 earnings will be and we
hope Q3 was the end of the soft patch. However, until
we begin to get Q4 guidance from the early October
earnings reports the outlook is still cloudy. There
are no material economic reports next week and the
Fed does not meet until the following Tuesday. There
is nothing to stimulate a higher move but fear of
missing the train but there could be plenty of 
warnings to push us lower. 

Regardless of your market bias next week should be 
an exciting week in the market. Volume is increasing
and large moves are possible. I hope I have accurately
painted both sides of the picture and not hopelessly
confused you. We are in the best four months of the
year for traders and it is time to place your bets. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Grab Those Seatbelts!
- J. Brown

Hold on to your hats!  September 2004 is ready to move.  The 
question is which way?  Will the markets ignore September's 
historical weakness based on falling oil prices, improving 
economic data and new confidence that the incumbent will win the 
White House?  Or will historical trends reassert themselves thus 
proving this past week to be nothing but a big bull trap? Therein 
lies the true question.  

Unfortunately, we have a lot of conflicting data points.  If 
you're feeling bullish, and many of you are, then the recent 
breakouts this past week are pretty exciting.  Check out some of 
these moves:  The SOX semiconductor index has led the pack with 
an 8.8 percent rally in the last two days.  Most believe this is 
panicked short covering that won't last but we'll see.  The chips 
have inspired the rest of the tech sector to new relative highs.  
The NWX networking index has climbed through resistance at 220 
and its simple 50-dma.  The GHA hardware index has bust through 
resistance at 240 and its simple 200-dma.  The INX Internet index 
has pushed through resistance at 170 and its simple 50-dma.  Last 
and certainly not least the GSO Software index has soared through 
resistance at 135 and its simple 50-dma.  

Want more?  The OIX oil index and OSX oil service indices are at 
new all-time highs and new three-year highs respectively, despite 
the drop in crude oil Friday. The UTY utility index and XNG 
natural gas index are not far behind with both near new two-year 
highs.  Plus, the DFI defense index is resting near new all-time 
highs.  Yes, it has definitely been a bullish week.  

But it's been bullish for several weeks in a row.  Many of these 
sectors are now moving into their third, fourth even fifth week 
of gains.  That's usually when the rallies start to fade and we 
can encounter some steep profit taking.  Even the S&P 500 index 
is in its fourth (actually fifth) week of consecutive gains.  
Should we really be planning new bullish positions now or should 
we be looking to lock in gains?  

This would be a good spot to discuss the volatility indices, 
investor sentiment and spotting market tops and bottoms.  
However, Jim has down such a great job in this weekend's market 
wrap I'll just point you to his commentary.
http://members.OptionInvestor.com/MarketWrap/mw_091204_1.ASP

I will admit that with all the bullish breakouts and the market's 
ability to shrug off the Alcoa earnings warning and several chip 
stock warnings that it would be easy to feel more enthusiastic 
here.  Plus, the recent round of economic news was positive and 
lifts investor sentiment toward a more stable economy.  However, 
and you knew there was a however, I am not at all convinced that 
we'll avoid the traditional September weakness.  With the amount 
of earnings warnings we've already seen we'll certainly hear 
more.  Plus, the volatility indices are seriously suggesting 
we're at a new top.  Plus, the COT data below shows that 
commercial traders or so called "smart money" have been steadily 
growing more bearish on the S&P 500 (check the e-mini data).  

Looking ahead we can remain bullish short-term.  The Stock 
Trader's Almanac reports that the Monday before September's 
triple-witching option expiration Friday (actually it's quadruple 
witching now with single stock futures) has been up 9 out of the 
last 13 years.  That's the good news.  Yet by Friday history 
turns bearish with the markets down on expiration Friday 8 out of 
the last 13 years. 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10313

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10232
 50-dma: 10120
200-dma: 10274



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1123

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1112
 50-dma: 1099
200-dma: 1114



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1413

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1383
 50-dma: 1385
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.76 -0.25
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.48 -0.27
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 19.56 -1.02


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.89        688,108       609,139
Equity Only    0.61        573,043       351,284
OEX            1.43         22,576        32,353
QQQ            1.09         44,880        48,879


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          59.1    + 0.4   Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    39.0    + 1.0   Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       57.0    + 0.4   Bear Correction
S&P 100       55.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.02
10-dma: 1.12
21-dma: 1.05
55-dma: 1.28


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1613      1891
Decliners    1178      1084

New Highs     128        94
New Lows       13        35

Up Volume   1024M     1326M
Down Vol.    502M      259M

Total Vol.  1535M     1602M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/07/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders did add to positions during the most recent
week of data but there was zero change in their slightly bearish
bias.  Meanwhile small traders also added to both their longs
and shorts and scaled back their bullish attitude just a bit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)
09/07/04      415,952   426,342   (10,390)   (1.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%
09/07/04      157,732   130,817    26,915     9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

We're starting to see some big numbers line up on the short 
side from the commercial traders.  This is not good news for
the S&P 500 as the "smart money" grow more bearish on the
market.  Naturally small traders are walking the opposite 
direction by increasing their longs and bullish stance.  
This sort of tug-o-war usually ends up with the small trader
losing.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)
09/07/04      371,111   600,593   (229,482)  (23.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%
09/07/04      286,194     80,075   206,119    56.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Surprisingly the commercial trader added to his or her
long positions and increased their bullish bias a tad. 
Small traders also added to their longs but the jump in
short positions decreased the overall bullishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%
09/07/04       51,814     44,179     7,635    7.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%
09/07/04       16,817    12,561     4,256    14.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders are still asleep here for the Industrials
with very little movement.  Meanwhile small traders are 
growing more bearish on the average.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%
09/07/04       29,128    24,011    5,117       9.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)
09/07/07        5,041     8,656   (3,615)   (26.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Total Systems Svc Inc - TSS - close: 24.23 change: +0.41

WHAT TO WATCH: The tech rally has not been lost on shares of TSS.  
The stock has climbed steadily over the past couple of weeks and 
the overzealous bulls have pushed the stock through major 
resistance at the $24.00 level.  Not only has TSS broken through 
the top of its seven-month trading range but its simple 200-dma 
as well.  TSS still has a bearish P&F chart but this might be a 
candidate for more aggressive traders.  Watch for overhead 
resistance at the bottom of its January gap down near $26.00.




---

Foundry Networks - FDRY - close: 10.75 change: +0.80

WHAT TO WATCH: The breakout in the NWX networking index was 
boosted by an 8 percent rally in shares of FDRY.  The stock not 
only managed to breakout over its simple 40 and 50-dma's but FDRY 
also pushed through heavy psychological resistance at the $10.00 
mark.  Volume was well above average and that's a bullish signal 
for traders.  We wouldn't want to chase it here but a bounce from 
$10.00 or $10.25 might be tempting.  The P&F chart is still 
extremely bearish but it looks like the downside target has been 
achieved.




---

Dr. Reddy's Lab Ltd - RDY - close: 16.86 change: +0.69

WHAT TO WATCH: Biotech/drug stock RDY turned in an impressive 
performance on Friday.  Shares filled and surpassed the gap down 
in early August while simultaneously breaking out over its simple 
40 and 50-dma's.  Volume was above average and the stock looks 
poised to run toward the $17.50-18.00 range.  Watch out for some 
profit taking after the recent surge and consider buying a bounce 
from $16.25 with a tight stop. The P&F chart remains very bearish 
making this an aggressive strategy.  Alternatively one could wait 
for a failed rally near $17.50 and consider new shorts.




---

Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 33.60 change: +2.97

WHAT TO WATCH: The back-to-school shopping season may be over but 
this trendy apparel retailer is still hitting new highs.  Shares 
added almost 10 percent on Friday after Deutsche Bank started 
coverage on the stock with a "buy" and a $35 price target.  Long-
term URB has been a very consistent winner early January 2003.  
While the new high looks tempting for momentum traders and we 
expect some follow through on Monday readers may be better off 
watching for a dip back toward $30.00-30.50 and then buying a 
bounce.  


 

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-12-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     ARB
  Closed Bearish Plays:  NVLS, VRTS

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:     DPH
  Bullish Play Updates:  MVK, SPN
  Bearish Play Updates:  ETM, 


High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  CTMI, ICOS, PCLN

Stock Splits
  Announcements:         PCBK


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Arbitron Inc - ARB - close: 38.64 change: -0.03 stop: 40.01

Company Description:
Arbitron Inc. is an international media and marketing research 
firm serving radio broadcasters, cable companies, advertisers, 
advertising agencies and outdoor advertising companies in the 
United States, Mexico and Europe. Arbitron's core businesses are 
measuring network and local market radio audiences across the 
United States; surveying the retail, media and product patterns 
of local market consumers; and providing application software 
used for analyzing media audience and marketing information data. 
The Company is developing the Portable People Meter, a new 
technology for radio, television and cable ratings. Arbitron's 
marketing and business units are supported by a research and 
technology organization located in Columbia, Maryland. Arbitron 
has approximately 1700 employees; its executive offices are 
located in New York City. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Lack of participation in the rally had our bearish play sensors 
really flashing when we looked at ARB.  The stock has been 
struggling under its simple 200-dma for the last three weeks and 
technical oscillators have turned bearish while the MACD has 
rolled over into a new "sell" signal.  However, let's review a 
little history.  In late June ARB gapped lower after news hit 
that Infinity Broadcasting (a division of Viacom) said it would 
not renew its contract with ARB.  Shares of ARB continued to 
dwindle until they hit their lows in early August.  In mid-August 
shares gapped higher after reaching an agreement, effective 
immediately, with Infinity to renew the contract in a multi-year 
deal.  This of course allowed ARB to revise its earnings outlook 
higher. 

Now it would appear the excitement has faded and the stock looks 
vulnerable to some profit taking.  The P&F chart is still bearish 
and points to a $23.00 target.  Right now we'd be happy with a 
drop to $34.00 but first we're going to use a TRIGGER to open the 
play.  Our entry point will be $37.95 so ARB will have to break 
mild support at the bottom of its two-week trading range at 
$38.00.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:        + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        288 thousand




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Novellus - NVLS - close: 25.58 change: +0.95 stop: 25.01

It was a rough week for semiconductor bears.  Texas Instruments' 
(TXN) mid-quarter update was mixed at best and despite negative 
comments shorts panicked.  The ensuing two-day rally was tough to 
swallow as short covering sent the SOX up more than 5 percent on 
Thursday and up another 3.4 percent on Friday.  NVLS was not left 
behind in the rebound and share crossed the $25.00 mark on Friday 
afternoon stopping us out.  We don't have a lot of faith in this 
SOX rally, especially with the VXN near its lows, so we're not 
willing to chase chip stocks with longs nor are we willing to 
short them right here. 

Picked on September 05 at $23.39 
Gain since picked:        + 2.19
Earnings Date           07/12/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        5.1 million 



---

VERITAS - VRTS - close: 17.91 change: +1.21 stop: 18.01

Almost no tech stock was sparred from the short covering on 
Friday.  News that Oracle had won its lawsuit against the 
government to pursue smaller rival PeopleSoft sent the software 
sector soaring on speculation news.  The rebound in VRTS was 
exacerbated by news that the company has launched a $250 million 
share buyback program.  Before the end of Friday's session VRTS 
had hit $18.09 tagging our stop loss and closing the play.  Just 
our luck that shares were able to break resistance at its simple 
40-dma and the $18.00 mark right before the close.  We do not 
have confidence in this rally with the VXN this low and it 
wouldn't surprise us if VRTS is back near $16.50 by the end of 
next week.

Picked on September 05 at $16.55 
Gain since picked:        + 1.36
Earnings Date           07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        9.4 million 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Delphi Corp - DPH - close: 9.02 change: -0.34 stop: 9.41

Company Description:
Delphi is a world leader in mobile electronics and transportation 
components and systems technology. Multi-national Delphi conducts 
its business operations through various subsidiaries and has 
headquarters in Troy, Mich., USA, Paris, Tokyo and São Paulo, 
Brazil. Delphi's two business sectors – Dynamics, Propulsion, 
Thermal & Interior Sector and Electrical, Electronic &, Safety 
Sector - provide comprehensive product solutions to complex 
customer needs. Delphi has approximately 186,500 employees and 
operates 170 wholly owned manufacturing sites, 42 joint ventures, 
53 customer centers and sales offices and 34 technical centers in 
41 countries. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Automakers and the parts makers who supply them have had a rough 
couple of months.  Wall Street firms have been downgrading both 
industries.  Weak vehicle sales in August lead GM to cut its Q4 
production numbers and as the largest automaker that affects a 
lot of part suppliers.  Now Visteon (VC) a major supplier just 
issued an earnings warning after miscalculating how many cars 
Ford would produce.  Investors are worried that DPH's earnings 
may be under pressure and the stock has reversed its recent 
bullish breakout and is trading back towards its eight-month 
lows.

Technically shares don't look so great with rising volume on the 
declines, bearish turnovers in its oscillators like the RSI and 
stochastics and a potential new sell signal in its MACD soon.  
Plus, its P&F chart has reversed into a new sell signal with a 
$6.50 target.  Despite all this bearishness we're not willing to 
short it just yet.  We want to see a new relative low under 
support at $8.90.  We'll use a TRIGGER at $8.89 with an initial 
target of $8.00 and a secondary target of $7.00.  We'll use an 
initial stop loss at $9.41.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:        + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        1.3 million 




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


 Maverick Tube Corp - MVK - close: 31.25 chg: -0.57 stop: 28.49     

Oil and oil service stocks continued to do well this week 
although they did see some profit taking on Friday as crude oil 
prices slipped almost four percent giving back most of Thursday's 
gains.  Shares of MVK still look strong near their all-time highs 
and above resistance at $30.00.  We still like the triple-top 
breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.  Should MVK see more profit 
taking next week we'd look for support at $30.00 and consider 
buying a bounce as a new entry point for longs.  Remember, we 
were initially targeting a move to the $33.00 level and short-
term traders can plan accordingly.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 01 at $30.60 
Gain since picked:        + 0.65
Earnings Date           07/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        713 thousand




---

Superior Energy - SPN - close: 11.58 change: -0.44 stop: 10.90

It has been a volatile week for SPN.  After spending a few days 
consolidating gains above resistance at $11.50 the stock soared 
on Thursday with the oil services group and crude oil prices.  
Unfortunately, the oil services sector was the worst performing 
group on Friday as crude oil prices gave back four percent.  SPN 
lost all of Thursday's gains and once again tested new support at 
the $11.50 level.  Please take note - while SPN is still above 
the pivotal $11.50 level the sharp reversal feels very bearish.  
The huge volume on Friday of 2.7 million shares versus the 
average of just 355 thousand smells like major distribution 
(a.k.a. profit taking).  There's also the potential that there 
may be some sort of news that hasn't hit the wires yet.  We would 
be super cautious about consider new positions here.  SPN still 
has rising support (see chart) of higher lows and it may test it. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 01 at $11.74 
Gain since picked:        - 0.16
Earnings Date           08/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        355 thousand






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Entercom Comm. - ETM - close: 36.20 change: -0.15 stop: 38.51*new*

ETM feels like one of the few stocks that didn't bounce on short 
covering this past Friday.  Instead we're seeing some follow 
through from Wednesday's breakdown.  We expected some support 
near the $35 and $36 levels so Friday's intraday bounce from its 
lows doesn't concern us.  Volume was pretty strong the last two 
sessions and that's bearish for ETM.  Should ETM bounce at all 
we'd look for resistance at $37.00-37.50 and use any failed rally 
there as a potential new entry point.  The stock appears to be 
trading in a big bear flag pattern and our initial target at $32 
has not changed.  We're going to lower our stop loss to $38.51.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 08 at $37.00 
Gain since picked:        - 0.80
Earnings Date           08/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        463 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


CTI Molecular Imaging - CTMI - cls: 8.61 chg: +0.05 stop: 9.51     

If you're currently staring at an 11 percent "gain" or "drop" in 
this case since CTMI is a short or any sort of profit in this 
play it may be time to consider taking some money off the table.  
We're still bearish on CTMI and believe it could see further 
weakness but its technical oscillators are starting to edge 
higher.  That's our early warning system and we want to pay 
attention.  The first test in any bounce will be the simple 10-
dma, currently at $8.90.  The 10-dma has been resistance for the 
past few weeks and should hold again.  More conservative traders 
may want to consider tightening their stops closer to the $9.00 
level.  We're not suggesting new shorts at this time but another 
failed rally under $9.00 could work.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on August 15 at $ 9.67 
Gain since picked:     - 1.06
Earnings Date        08/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     322 thousand



---

ICOS Corp - ICOS - close: 24.25 change: +0.64 stop: 26.01

There were three reasons we put ICOS on the high risk/reward 
section. First, the stock is a biotech.  They tend to be volatile 
and you never know what sort of headline risks exists if they 
announce some new cure.  Second, the P&F chart is currently 
bullish and suggests a possible bottom.  Third, there is/was a 
short-term trendline of possible support from its higher lows 
dating back to July.  It looks like ICOS found that supporting 
trendline and bounced as the BTK biotech index reversed its 
recent rollover in spite of some very negative action in Amgen 
(AMGN) the BTK's biggest component.  Now the longer-term trend in 
ICOS is still bearish and its MACD is still in its recent "sell" 
signal but we need to be careful here.  We are expecting the 
bounce to continue for a little bit.  Both the $25 and $26 levels 
offer some overhead resistance.  We'd prefer to see ICOS bounce 
toward $25.00 and then begin to waver and roll over again.  That 
would present a new bearish entry point.  Momentum traders may 
want to wait for ICOS to hit a new low under $23.00 before 
considering positions.  Right now ICOS could be building a bear-
flag pattern but if that's the case it's not a short until it 
breaks the bottom boundary.  Plus, we're dealing with conflicting 
indicators since the short-term stochastics are bullish compared 
to the bearish MACD.  Our short-term target remains the $20.00 
region.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 08 at $23.80 
Gain since picked:        + 0.45
Earnings Date           08/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        1.1 million 




---

Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 20.42 change: +0.33 stop: 21.75

We may not be happy with the two-day bounce in PCLN we can be 
happy with its under performance.  The tech sector has been 
soaring the last few days and the INX has built on its trend of 
higher lows to breakout on Friday.  The INX's rally on Friday put 
the stock at a new one-month high and above its simple 50-dma and 
exponential 200-dma.  Meanwhile shares of PCLN have reversed back 
above round-number support/resistance at the $20.00 mark.  The 
recent market action makes us cautious about new plays.  
Fortunately, the VXN volatility index for the NASDAQ 100 is at 
extremely low levels and predicting a short-term top in the 
market soon.  Keep an eye on the VXN and consider new positions 
in PCLN under $20.00. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 07 at $19.85
Gain since picked:        + 0.57
Earnings Date           08/02/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        478 thousand





==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

PCBK declares 5-for-4 stock split 

This morning before the opening bell Pacific Continental Corp. 
(NASDAQ: PCBK) announced that its Board of Directors had approved 
a 5-for-4 stock split of its common shares.

The split will be paid on October 15th, 2004 to shareholders on 
record as of September 30th.  Any fractional shares resulting from 
the split will be paid in cash.  Post-split the number of shares 
outstanding will be 8.5 million.  

This split comes exactly one year after its last stock split.


About the company:
Pacific Continental Bank is the operating subsidiary of Pacific 
Continental Corporation. The bank delivers its highly personalized 
services through ten banking offices in western Oregon including 
Eugene and Portland, the state's two largest commercial markets. 
Pacific Continental targets the banking needs of community-based 
businesses, professional service groups, and not-for-profit 
organizations. (source: company press release)



=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-12-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 12th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

===========================================
Market Watch for the week of September 12th
===========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

CBP  Campbell Soup        Mon, Sep 13  ---- N/A ----      0.18
CKR  CKE Restaurants      Mon, Sep 13  Before the bell    0.20
SKY  Skyline              Mon, Sep 13  ---- N/A ----      n/a


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

IDR  Intrawest            Tue, Sep 14  ---- N/A ----     -0.21
ORCL Oracle               Tue, Sep 14  After the close    0.09
PIR  Pier 1 Imports Inc.  Tue, Sep 14  Before the bell    0.11
POSS Possis Medical       Tue, Sep 14  After the close    0.18
KR   The Kroger Co.       Tue, Sep 14  Before the bell    0.27
V    Vivendi Universal    Tue, Sep 14  ---- N/A ----      n/a


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AXA  AXA                  Wed, Sep 15  ---- N/A ----      n/a
BBY  Best Buy Co.         Wed, Sep 15  Before the bell    0.51
BRC  Brady Corp           Wed, Sep 15  Before the bell    0.53
CLC  CLARCOR Inc          Wed, Sep 15  Before the bell    0.63
MLHR Herman Miller        Wed, Sep 15  After the close    0.20
SKYE SkyePharma           Wed, Sep 15  During the market  n/a

------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

COMS 3Com Corp            Thr, Sep 16  After the close   -0.07
CHTT Chattem Inc          Thr, Sep 16  After the close    0.45
CTAS Cinas Inc            Thr, Sep 16  After the close    0.42
PRGS Progress Software    Thr, Sep 16  ---- N/A ----      0.24
TEK  Tektronix Inc        Thr, Sep 16  After the close    0.30
VRTY Verity               Thr, Sep 16  After the close    0.07

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

BMET Biomet               Fri, Sep 17  Before the bell    0.35
CC   Circuit City         Fri, Sep 17  Before the bell   -0.11
VE   Veolia Environment   Fri, Sep 17  ---- N/A ----      n/a



----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable


BLL     Ball Corp                 2:1      Sep  15th   Sep  16th
SF      Stifel Financial          4:3      Sep  15th   Sep  16th
AMWD    American Woodmark         2:1      Sep  24th   Sep  27th
LM      Legg Mason Inc            3:2      Sep  24th   Sep  27th
CATY    Cathay General Bancorp    2:1      Sep  28th   Sep  29th
WST     West Pharma               2:1      Sep  29th   Sep  30th
NPBC    National Penn             5:4      Sep  30th   Oct   1st

--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

We're just a little over a week away from the FOMC's next meeting.
Economic data will continue to play an important role.  We'll
see three Fed manufacturing survey's this week plus the CPI report
on Friday.  Look for earnings from ORCL, V, and BBY this week.

==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 09/13/04
----------------
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index for August
Monthly Treasury Budget statement for August

-----------------
Tuesday, 09/14/04
-----------------
Richmond Fed Mfg Index for August
Retail Sales for August

-------------------
Wednesday, 09/15/04
-------------------
NY Empire State Mfg Index for Sep.
Business Inventories for July
Industrial Production for August
Capacity Utilization for August


------------------
Thursday, 09/16/04
------------------
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August
Core CPI (minus food & energy) for August
Philly Fed Index for September
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - last reading was 319,000
SEMI Book-to-Bill numbers.

----------------
Friday, 09/17/04
----------------
Michigan Sentiment/Consumer confidence (preliminary) September
Option Expiration Friday


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

HD      Home Depot                 37.54     +0.53
MRK     Merck & Co                 45.77     +0.51
MWD     Morgan Stanley             52.95     +0.99
UN      Unilever N.V.              61.58     +0.82
DEO     Diageo Plc (ADS)           50.80     +0.79
FDC     First Data Corp            43.61     +0.75

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

VRTS    Veritas Software           17.91     +1.21
PSFT    PeopleSoft                 19.79     +1.84
CVC     Cablevision                19.57     +1.28
VSH     Vishay Intertechnology     13.70     +1.08
QSFT    Quest Software             11.27     +1.02
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare         19.20     +1.16

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
TXN     Texas Instruments          21.94     +1.17
SAP     SAP Ag (ADS)               39.18     +1.92
FDX     Fedex Corp                 85.66     +1.71
COF     Capital One Financial      72.55     +2.94
A       Agilent Technologies       22.71     +1.55
URBN    Urban Outfitters           33.60     +2.97
ZQK     Quiksilver Inc             25.90     +3.27

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AMGN    Amgen Inc                  57.30     -1.76
AA      Alcoa Inc                  30.75     -2.54
MGA     Magna Intl Inc             70.67     -2.99
MTG     MGIC Investments           65.14     -3.30
PMI     The PMI Group              40.17     -1.23
EAT     Brinker Intl               30.11     -1.22
FFH     Fairfax Financial         126.50     -5.87
AXL     American Axle & Mfg        32.28     -1.09

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AL      Alcan Inccue Metal         43.17     -1.53
RI      Ruby Tuesday               27.05     -1.46
GIVN    Given Imaging              36.80     -1.24
PGR     Progressive Corp           79.25     -0.69
CFC     Countrywide Financial      36.05     -0.49
MAS     Masco Corp                 32.87     -0.22
PCAR    Paccar Inc                 62.57     -0.47


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives