Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 09/16/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-16-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Passing Time
Watch List:        Banks to Books and more!
Market Sentiment:  Investors Prepare for Option Expiration

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-16-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10244.49 + 13.10 10281.88 10228.64 1.41 bln 2366/ 847
NASDAQ   1904.08 +  7.60  1914.38  1898.36 1.33 bln 1957/1109
S&P 100   543.35 +  0.72   544.94   542.63   Totals 4323/1956
S&P 500  1123.50 +  3.13  1126.06  1120.37 
W5000   10956.52 + 43.67 10977.31 10912.83
SOX       381.45 +  0.70   386.47   380.15
RUS 2000  574.54 +  6.02   575.10   568.45
DJ TRANS 3233.41 + 17.70  3237.28  3208.83
VIX        14.39 -  0.25    14.66    14.27
VXO (VIX-O)14.44 -  0.33    14.76    14.15
VXN        19.92 -  0.38    20.48    19.60 
Total Volume 2,958M
Total UpVol  1,873M
Total DnVol  1,026M
Total Adv  4838
Total Dcl  2275
52wk Highs  239
52wk Lows    55
TRIN       1.40
NAZTRIN    1.08
PUT/CALL   0.75
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Passing Time
by Jim Brown

On the surface today was rather unspectacular with all 
the major indexes finishing very close to the flat line.
They all gave up some decent midday gains but rallied
back from a late day sell off to keep the bullish bid
intact. 

Dow Chart – Daily

 
Nasdaq Chart

 


The morning started off with positive economic news
and a tame jump in Jobless Claims to 333,000. Analysts
were expecting a slightly stronger bounce in the wake
of Hurricane Charley and the abnormal dip to 317K last
week. The bottom line remains a steady claim rate of
330K once the hurricane adjustments are factored in.
This is a level that is consistent with an increasing
job market but only at approximately 100K per month.

Consumer Prices rose slightly with the CPI posting a
+0.1% gain but this was also slower than expectations
for a +0.2% jump. Energy prices fell for the second
month and food prices posted the smallest gain since
January. Core inflation for the year dropped to only
+1.7% while the headline rate is +2.7% mostly on the
higher energy prices earlier in the year. The Fed
action to stop inflation appears to have been the
right amount at the right time but I doubt their hikes
actually had any impact. Hikes and cuts take about six
months to work their way through the system. The more
likely reason for the slowing in inflation is a lack
of demand as retail slumped over the summer. 

The worst news for the day was drop in the Philly Fed
General Business Index to 13.4 from 28.5. This is a
major blow to the recovery theory and could only be
a month away from the return of negative numbers. The
index has been averaging around 30 since January with
the high at 36.1 in July. The shipments component fell
to 22.4 from 32 and the six-month outlook fell to 44.9
from 52.7. All other components were mostly positive
with New Orders rising to 26.4 from 19.2 and Employment
jumping to 21.5 from 17.2. This report shows we could
be at a the crossroads for the recovery. Some of the 
bounce in the internals could be related to holiday 
orders and staffing. If that is the case those same 
internals should begin to decline again in Q4.  

The bond market exploded on the Philly Fed news and
the yields on the benchmark ten-year fell to a five
month low at 4.06%. The yield is nearing support 
that dates back to July of last year at 4.0% and
it appears the bonds are telling us there is fear
creeping into investors about the strength of the
recovery. The Fed funds futures are still indicating
another hike at two of the next three meetings. 

Ten-year Yield Chart

 


Another shock to the economic groupies today was a 
speech by Fed Governor Gramlich on the impact of higher
oil prices. He claimed the standard economic models do
not allow for a major increase in the price of oil at
this point in the economic cycle. He said a serious 
oil price shock could affect consumers confidence or 
spending plans in a way that could not be anticipated 
by current models. He also showed he was one of the 
few Fed heads that did not have his head buried in 
the sand on future prices. He noted that the sharp 
jump in futures prices was an unusual occurrence and
one that suggests the price gains may be permanent. I
am sure he is in the Fed doghouse tonight for opening
Pandora's Box. A 100% jump in oil prices over the last
year and some of those gains may be permanent? Duh! 
Who would have thought that? 

The recent OPEC statements may have continued to target
in print the $22-$28 price band of a year ago but their
actions AND abilities to lower the price much under $40
remain in serous doubt. Oil demand is continuing to 
rocket higher, supplies are continuing to decrease and
reserves are moving closer to depletion. Just yesterday
crude oil inventories in the U.S. dropped by seven mil
barrels for the week. This was the 7th consecutive
weekly drop. How about this for a Fed understatement
from Gramlich? "This whole issue, however, is new and
imperfectly understood. It is virtually inevitable 
that shocks will result in some combination of higher
inflation and higher unemployment for a time". I bet 
he got a phone call from Alan after that speech hit 
the wires. It is no wonder the bonds rocketed higher
with the double hit of the 50% haircut on the Philly
Fed and a Fed speech warning of unemployment and 
inflation.   

Oil fell at the open after it was determined that Ivan
missed the majority of the oil patch and damage to the
system was minor. It spiked again at the close to $44
on reported short covering related to options expiration.
We continue to see a pattern of higher lows wedging up
to $45, a level that appears to be the current pain
threshold. 

The markets moved in a tight range today as the Ivan
news was filtered for economic impact. Volume was low
due to Ivan, expiration and the Jewish holidays but 
the earnings warnings barely slowed. The hurricane
excuse is appearing more often and whether real or
imagined the results are the same. The pace of new
warnings is growing and Q3 could be a challenge. 
Retailers from Office Depot to Panera Bread are now
jumping on the hurricane excuse train and it appears
that train will be loaded to capacity over the next
three weeks. 

Despite the tight range today the internals were 
very strong with the A/D line ending positive with
more than +2400 advancers than decliners. A/D volume
was nearly 2:1 in favor of advancers and this was a
throw away day given all the factors in play. The
strongest indexes were the transports, utilities 
and the Russell-2000. Strange bedfellows for today's
market. The transports hit a FIVE-YEAR high despite
the $44 oil. This is a serious disconnect with 
reality but a new transport high has got to be good
for the Dow theory crowd. Somebody needs to point 
this out to those investors in Dow stocks as the 
index closed very close to a three week low at 10244.

Just as amazing is the Russell clinging to a +10%
gain over the last three weeks and threatening to
breakout of its 575 resistance. A breakout there
would be an open door to 590 and only a strong day
away from its all time closing high at 606. With the
two strongest months of the year about six weeks 
ahead the possibilities are enormous. 

Russell 2000 Chart

 


Getting to that November rally could still be a
challenge as the other indexes have slowed at strong
resistance. Next week begins the real Q3 warning
season and odds are good there will be some high
profile disappointments. Stocks like MMM, PG, HON
and IBM have pulled back from their highs as traders
begin to worry about which Dow component will be the
next to warn. Next week traders will run the earnings
gauntlet not knowing who will be the next to take a
hit. 

We are getting close to the Osama surprise. There
has been speculation for several weeks that Osama
would suddenly be killed or captured in the weeks
leading up to the election as the pressure to 
produce a trump card increases. This must be a
recurring Kerry nightmare.

The chip bulls got some more bad news tonight. 
The S.E.M.I. Association reported a drop in the 
book-to-bill number to 1.00, the fourth consecutive
monthly drop and the lowest level since Sept-2003.
Bookings fell -4.5% in August according to SEMI.
Readers should remember that this is a three-month
moving average which suggests bookings for August
were significantly less than 1.00 with the average
for the last two months at 1.04 and 1.07. SEMI does
not release the raw data so it makes deciphering the
numbers more of an art than science. The SOX had
pulled back to support at 380 and held there for the
last two days. 380 could provide a decent launch point
but tonight's news could provide some minor instability.
Of course the bulls could point to the fact that this
negative news was already priced in and maybe it is
not as negative as traders expected. It all depends
on whether they see it as a glass half full or half
empty.  

SOX Chart 

 

Friday should be another low volume day and the only
event risk is earnings surprises expected next week.
With the positive internals today I would say it was
a tossup for direction on Friday. Options expiration
should have produced about all the damage they are
going to do as positions were squared ahead of the
event. Wednesday's drop was probably more options
related than earnings related but that would be
pure speculation at this point. If there are two keys
to watch for Friday it would be the SOX at 380 and
the Russell at 575. A bounce in the SOX and a breakout
on the Russell would set the stage for a strong close
and a positive setup for Monday. 

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

PalmSource - PSRC - close: 26.58 change: +2.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Wow!  PSRC soared 9.4% on four times the average 
volume today.   We can't find any news to account for the move 
but the rally today is a major breakout over long-term resistance 
at the $25.00 and $26.25 levels.  These are new ten-month highs 
and PSRC has pushed through P&F resistance as well.  We would not 
chase it here but a dip back to $25.00 might be a tempting entry 
point.  Beware of earnings due out on September 23rd.

Chart=


---

New York Community Bank - NYB - close: 21.92 change: +0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: You may remember NYB as successful long we 
recently closed.  Now shares have spent the last week or so 
consolidating gains.  Traders have bought the dip to its simple 
20-dma and NYB is bouncing.  We're not excited about the momentum 
oscillators as they look overbought but a move over $22.00 might 
be an aggressive bull's entry point.  

Chart=


---

BJ's Wholesale Club - BJ - close: 27.05 change: +0.90

WHAT TO WATCH: Breakout alert!  Wholesale retailer BJ has broken 
out to new 2004 highs on better than average volume.  Its MACD 
indicator has reversed back into a bullish signal and RSI and 
stochastics confirm it.  The $26.00-26.50 levels were tough 
resistance but BJ has more resistance at $27.45.  A move higher 
here would put BJ at new two-year highs.  The P&F chart looks 
pretty bullish with a spread triple-top breakout buy signal and a 
$38 target.  Our initial target would be $30.00.

Chart=


---

Barnes & Noble - BKS - close: 35.95 change: +0.62

WHAT TO WATCH: Watch for a new three-year high over resistance at 
$36.50.  Bulls can use such a move as a momentum entry point with 
a $40.00 target.  P&F chart traders can wait for a move over 
$37.00, which would produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal.  

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

GNW $23.90 +0.60 - This life insurance stock may be worth a 
second look.  Shares are breaking out to new highs over $23.50.

CNQ $35.46 +0.61 - This oil and gas play still looks strong over 
$34.50. 

ESE $66.17 -3.08 - For the truly high-risk trader ESE appears to 
have reversed.  Its MACD has produced a new sell signal on 
massive volume.  



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Investors Prepare for Option Expiration
- J. Brown

It was an odd day on Wall Street.  After Wednesday's weakness 
many felt that the rest of the week would be down.  That's 
probably not a surprise.  We've already mentioned that 
September's option expiration Friday historically tends to end 
lower.  Having the major averages at or near resistance and the 
volatility indices at or near bearish reversal levels looked like 
a good set up for a decline.  

Yet strangely the markets don't seem ready to fall yet.  They 
shrugged of an earnings warning from Canadian networker Nortel 
Networks.  They ignored news from Delta Airlines that it too may 
seek bankruptcy protection soon.  Overall the market seems to be 
ignoring the recent parade of earnings warnings.  

Actually the market internals today were rather bullish.  
Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners 20-to-7 on the NYSE and 
19-to-10 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume outweighed down volume on both 
exchanges.  Active traders will note that overall volume was 
somewhat low.  This was due to the onset of Rosh Hashanah, the 
Jewish new year.  

Hogging the spotlight most of the day was news coverage of 
Hurricane Ivan and its effect on the Alabama, Florida and 
Louisiana coasts.  Believe it or not there is another hurricane 
lurking in Ivan's shadow.  That would be Hurricane Jeane, the 
fourth hurricane in five or six weeks, and one potential factor 
in the afternoon spike in oil prices.  

Economic data was mixed with the CPI confirming what the PPI 
already told us - inflation is under control.  It's too bad the 
Philly Fed survey came in weaker than expected but this slow down 
in the economy and the lack of inflation may actually give the 
FOMC reason to pass on its next interest rate hike.  At least 
that's what some are arguing.  Others look at the economy and see 
it speeding up from its summer slow down.  

Just one more "indicator" that might make you pause before 
initiating another bullish play is the action in bonds.  Bonds 
have been climbing ever since their double-bottom in May and 
June.  The 10-year note rallied to a new 5 1/2-month high today 
pushing the yield lower to 4.069%.  If "smart money" is buying 
bonds that's a defensive posture and doesn't speak well for where 
Wall Street thinks stocks are going.  

I'm not expecting much for tomorrow.  Volume is likely to remain 
low but we could see some volatility with the quadruple option 
expiration.  Look for the preliminary Michigan sentiment/consumer 
confidence numbers for September to come out.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10244

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10291
 50-dma: 10118
200-dma: 10287



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1123

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1120
 50-dma: 1100
200-dma: 1115



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1417

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1402
 50-dma: 1382
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.39 -0.25
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.44 -0.33
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 19.92 -0.38


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        773,434       582,658
Equity Only    0.61        555,654       340,448
OEX            0.77         41,157        31,938
QQQ            0.65         65,724        42,963


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          61.1    + 1.0   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    43.0    - 1.0   Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       59.0    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 100       56.0    + 1     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.96
10-dma: 0.99
21-dma: 1.05
55-dma: 1.28


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2070      1909
Decliners     717      1047

New Highs     107        62
New Lows       16        13

Up Volume    881M      817M
Down Vol.    504M      468M

Total Vol.  1411M     1311M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/07/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders did add to positions during the most recent
week of data but there was zero change in their slightly bearish
bias.  Meanwhile small traders also added to both their longs
and shorts and scaled back their bullish attitude just a bit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)
09/07/04      415,952   426,342   (10,390)   (1.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%
09/07/04      157,732   130,817    26,915     9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

We're starting to see some big numbers line up on the short 
side from the commercial traders.  This is not good news for
the S&P 500 as the "smart money" grow more bearish on the
market.  Naturally small traders are walking the opposite 
direction by increasing their longs and bullish stance.  
This sort of tug-o-war usually ends up with the small trader
losing.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)
09/07/04      371,111   600,593   (229,482)  (23.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%
09/07/04      286,194     80,075   206,119    56.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Surprisingly the commercial trader added to his or her
long positions and increased their bullish bias a tad. 
Small traders also added to their longs but the jump in
short positions decreased the overall bullishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%
09/07/04       51,814     44,179     7,635    7.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%
09/07/04       16,817    12,561     4,256    14.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders are still asleep here for the Industrials
with very little movement.  Meanwhile small traders are 
growing more bearish on the average.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%
09/07/04       29,128    24,011    5,117       9.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)
09/07/07        5,041     8,656   (3,615)   (26.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-16-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  ARB, MVK, SPN, ETM, CTMI, PCLN

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       MIK

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

ARB - tech stock short-
  As expected ARB did show some weakness today
  but we remain untriggered and wait for ARB to break
  support at the $38.00 level.
 
 
MVK - non-tech long -
  Be careful here.  Momentum is fading and oscillators
  are turning bearish.  If MVK trades under $30.50 we
  grow more concerned.
 
SPN - non-tech long -
  Be careful here.  Momentum is fading and oscillators
  are turning bearish.  If SPN trades under $11.40 we're
  going to worry.
 
ETM - non-tech short -
  ETM is now down several days in a row and hitting new
  lows.  Consider tightening your stop loss.
 
 
CTMI - high risk/reward short -
  Heads up!  CTMI rallied 2.9 percent and out performed
  the BTK biotech index.  The stock may have put in a 
  short-term bottom.  We are going to lower our stop to
  $9.01.
 
 
PCLN - high risk/reward short - 
  Internet travel site PCLN has fallen through round-number
  support at $20.00 despite a bullish day for most of the 
  Internet stocks.


==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

MIK crafts a 2-for-1 stock split 

Just after Thursday's closing bell Michaels Stores, Inc. 
(NYSE:MIK) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-
for-1 stock split. 

The split will be paid as a stock dividend on October 12, 2004 to 
shareholders on record as of September 27th.  

MIK also announced a cash dividend of 7 cents per share payable on 
a post-split basis on October 29th, 2004.

According to MIK's press release this is their second 2:1 split 
since 2001.


About the company:
Michaels Stores, Inc. is the world's largest specialty retailer of 
arts, crafts, framing, floral, wall decor, and seasonal 
merchandise for the hobbyist and do-it-yourself home decorator. As 
of September 16, 2004, the Company owns and operates 836 Michaels 
stores in 48 states and Canada, 163 Aaron Brothers stores, eight 
Recollections stores, and three Star Wholesale operations. 
(source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     PetroChina Co              51.68     +1.78
BA      Boeing Co                  54.52     +0.86
CD      Cendant Corp               22.96     +0.92
FITB    Fifth Third Bancorp        50.00     +1.08
STA     The St. Paul Travelers     34.84     +0.72
AMX     America Movil              37.67     +0.55

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CYD     China Yuchai Ltd           14.35     +1.04
ECSI    Endocardial Solutions      11.52     +1.06
DDN     Dynamex Inc                15.14     +1.04

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
GDW     Golden West Financial     115.06     +2.36
RIMM    Research In Motion         73.10     +3.07
XMSR    XM Satellite Radio         30.58     +1.12
ACH     Aluminum Corp              54.52     +5.42
TS      Tenaris Sa                 44.31     +1.83
WPI     Watson Pharmaceuticals     29.70     +1.32
NCEN    New Century Financial      59.42     +1.33

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

KO      Coca-Cola Co               40.04     -1.12
HDI     Harley-Davidson            59.94     -1.61
IMDC    Inamed Corp                48.78     -2.23
MNT     Mentor Corp                33.25     -1.88
WIBC    Wilshire Bancorp           29.21     -2.43

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ESE     Esco Technologies          66.17     -3.08
EXM     Excel Maritime Carriers    35.30     -2.70
KSS     Kohl's Corp                49.48     -1.28
HAFC    Hanmi Financial            31.97     -0.34
SJW     SJW Corp                   34.76     -0.29


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