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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/21/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-21-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Surprise, No Surprise
Watch List:        Tonight's list is dominated by bullish candidates
Market Sentiment:  Mixed Signals

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-21-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10244.93 + 40.00 10270.52 10200.25 1.62 bln 2238/ 979
NASDAQ   1921.18 + 13.10  1925.85  1909.43 1.56 bln 2023/1108
S&P 100   544.74 +  2.81   546.08   541.93   Totals 4261/2087
S&P 500  1129.30 +  7.10  1131.54  1122.20 
SOX       403.75 +  3.90   406.66   399.90
RUS 2000  576.92 +  6.18   577.15   570.74
DJ TRANS 3271.22 + 28.90  3271.62  3243.11
VIX        13.66 -  0.77    15.97    13.39
VXO (VIX-O)12.86 -  0.92    14.15    12.66
VXN        20.30 -  0.26    20.70    19.88 
Total Volume 3,472M
Total UpVol  2,519M
Total DnVol    892M
Total Adv  4821
Total Dcl  2403
52wk Highs  270
52wk Lows    71
TRIN       0.72
NAZTRIN    0.86
PUT/CALL   0.76
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Surprise, No Surprise
by Jim Brown

The FOMC meeting has passed into the history books and 
there was very little change from the last meeting. The
Fed hiked rates and kept the "measured pace" language.
Traders hoping for a break in the pace were disappointed
that the expected surprise was not delivered. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
NDX Chart

 
Russell Chart

 
SOX Chart

 

The markets started out positive with traders cheering
the jump in Residential Construction and ignoring the
now routine drop in Chain Store Sales. The Chain Store
Sales number fell -1.1% for the week and continued the
weak back to school season. The drop was the sharpest
decline since June and analysts suggested improper
seasonal adjustments were the problem. 

The falling mortgage interest rates continued to push
New Home Construction back to the two million level
in August. This continued the growth from July where
the headline number jumped +171,000 to 1.988M. The
single family starts are growing slower than multifamily
units but both are growing and that is good news for
the economy. Building permits did drop -114,000 in
August but with fall weather ahead this is a normal
seasonal occurrence. Builders are taking a page from
the auto dealer play book and they are offering cash
back, upgrades, furniture, cheap interest and even
vacations to induce buyers to make the commitment now
and not hold inventory over the winter. 

Despite the Fed raising rates to 1.75% today the real
rates fell with bonds jumping on the Fed announcement.
The ten-year rate fell to 4.04% and a new five-month
low. This is a reaction to the weak economics and the
slow and measured pace comments. Bond traders still
expect the Fed to take a pass at the November meeting.

As I stated above the Fed meeting was a non-event with
the quarter point hike as expected. The statement was
mixed on economic comments. The Fed said output growth
appears to have regained some traction after moderating
earlier in the year. They felt labor conditions had
improved only modestly and inflation expectations have
eased. They said the risk of inflation and deflation
were still roughly equal. The committee kept its "pace
that will likely be measured" language and raised the 
rate to remove the current over accommodative posture.
Yawn, no surprise and no change with the exception of 
the possibly slightly stronger language about the
economy. You would have to look hard to see it. Traders
initially thought it was a concession to the future and
a potentially softer side of the Fed but once the full
statement saw the light of day the excitement faded.

The markets spiked on the news as they always do then
faded as is the norm. Once the smoke cleared a buy 
program tried to break the overhead resistance but
all they got for their effort was a failed rally. 
The Dow fell back below 10250 which has become short
term resistance. The Nasdaq fell back to 1920 and the
upper end of its range for the last two weeks, also
strong resistance. The SPX broke 1130 for about 20 min
before slipping back below that strong resistance level
at the close. The only index to really close above its
recent resistance was the Russell at 576.80 and that
was tenuous at best. After the close the various 
futures contracts bled a few more points despite some
decent earnings and no real warnings. 

Adobe beat the street and raised guidance. PAYX reported
inline with estimates as well as CBK. JBL beat analysts
by a penny and traded up about +1.60 in after hours. 
The markets had traded higher early in the day after
Lehman and Goldman both beat estimates by a mile. 
General Mills was a slight drag on the market after
it reported earnings that fell -19% due to higher
prices for its ingredients.  

It was amazing we moved higher at all with oil reaching
a new five week high and trading over $47 for most of
the day. The futures closed at $46.90 but fear of more
terrorist acts, Yukos and production slowdowns due to 
the hurricanes is keeping it higher. Tomorrow at 10:30
we get the oil and gas inventories for the week and we
have seen drops in inventories for the last seven weeks.
It appears traders are speculating that trend will
continue. The drop in inventory levels has been due 
to refineries reluctance to buy the high priced oil
according to analysts. With the summer driving season
over they are playing chicken with supplies and hoping
to produce only as much gasoline as necessary to avoid
passing the high prices up the chain. Eventually we
will reach a level where gasoline inventories will 
force them to add to crude supplies. 

The XOI Oil Index rose +20 for the day and it was
the largest one day jump since July 29th 2002. The
695.75 close is a seven-year high. In a complete 
disconnect from reality the Dow transports also hit
a new five year high at 3271. Something is definitely
wrong with this picture. 

The earnings picture took another turn south today 
with Abby Joseph Cohen predicting profit growth of
only +5% for all of 2005. That is the lowest level
I have heard and even lower than the +8.5% Reuters
number from last week. Seems we are faced with a race
to quote lower for this cycle instead of the constantly
increasing quotes for the last couple quarters. 

According to Zachs 85% of companies met or exceeded
earnings in Q2 and that quarter finished with +34%
earnings growth. Zachs current estimate for the 3Q
earnings growth is +14% to +15%. This is below the
+13% to +17% range given by Reuters just last Friday.
Assuming the numbers are close and will not get
worse is that still confirmation of a growing
economy and justification for a bull market? In 
most cases the answer is yes. We are just spoiled
by the huge gains over the last year.  

I mentioned earlier that the bonds soared on the
Fed announcement. Does that strike you as strange?
It should because there are only two real reasons
for bonds to be soaring. Either inflation is dead
for the foreseeable future or the economy is slipping
back into recession. The Fed comment today suggests
the inflation monster is not dead but at least
contained for the near term. The other side of that
coin is the economic strength. I just profiled the
earnings deceleration for you above. We have been
getting daily tech warnings and the chip sector 
could be on the verge of yet another round of order
push outs. Could it be that BOTH possibilities are
possible. Could inflation be dropping along with the
economy because we are heading into a depression? 
Scary thought but how else do you justify the four
month drop in real interest rates and the rise in
bond prices? Doesn't the Fed want rates to go higher
and bonds to weaken? With "real" rates falling the
Fed may be forced to raise rates even faster to slow
the descent. The various possibilities here for the
economic forecast are numerous enough to make your
head spin. 

Those analysts that get paid the big bucks are not
quite as positive about the markets chances as they
were just a couple weeks ago. They are now claiming
the market rallied on the post convention Bush bounce,
the drop in oil prices from the 8/20 August highs
and the recovery in the Jobs numbers. The Arnold
speech was given as the turning point in the market. 
That was August 31st and well after the price of
oil began to drop and long after the 8/16 beginning
of the current rally. It was however the rebirth of
the current rally which had failed for two days 
before that 8/31 Arnold speech. August 31st was also
the turning point in oil prices at their $41.40 low.
The march higher was choppy as the various Yukos/IRAQ
scenarios played out but for the last week there has
been no hesitation. The prices are nearing the August
highs and the equity markets are not paying attention. 

I believe this cannot continue indefinitely. The
current warning ratio is nearly 3:1 compared to those
who have affirmed guidance. We are hearing on all fronts
that profits are decelerating and analysts are racing
to post the lowest estimate. Money is pouring into
bonds while overall economics are less than inspiring.
My point to all of this is what will push traders to
chase prices higher? Abby said it best today. She said
the early stages of a bull market are full of vim and
vigor. Once that initial stage has passed and the 
consolidation begins the next stage of the market is
marked by durability. The sex appeal has gone and the
lure of doubling your money has passed. Now traders
have to decide is the potential for another +10% to
+20% is worth the risk. Is it worth buying more at 
three-month highs and at strong resistance?

That brings us to tomorrow and the rest of the week.
The SPX, Nasdaq and Russell are all right at very
strong resistance and are either poised to break out
or break down. I know you have heard this before but
if you are a bear this is exactly where you want to
enter your next short. If you are a bull this is the
resistance that must break for any material move to
succeed. What if this resistance does break? What 
then? The SPX has even stronger resistance at 1140
and 1150. The odds of those breaking before the 
election are very slim. The S&P is the strongest of
the major indexes with the Dow and Nasdaq still in a
down trend even if they break their current resistance
levels. I don't want to belabor the facts but the 
markets are not as bullish as some would have you 
think.

I do believe we will move higher before the end of
the year and we should move higher into the election.
How much higher is the question, when and why? With the
earnings warning season due to increase in intensity
as each day passes the bears are getting excited. The
bulls are saying so what? We know that already, buy
more, there is always a post election rally. I fear
that is exactly the sentiment that we should worry
about. 

Is it just the expectation of the post election 
bounce that is really powering all the bad news 
rallies we are seeing? The Stock Traders Almanac
does a great job in telling us how the markets have
moved both before and after every election cycle for
the last fifty years. The trend is well known and 
every four years traders try to capitalize on it. I
have seen several other trends of late fail to appear
once the masses begin to depend on them. I am beginning
to think this post election cycle may leave something
to be desired. I will be happy to ride any wave higher
but I am going to be looking for the sharks behind me.

This week should be the key for me. Economic reports
are few and there should be nothing for the market 
to focus on other than stocks. If we can move higher
this week it would mean strong resistance had failed
and bulls found the conviction and volume necessary 
to overcome not only the resistance but the declining
sentiment. 

Next week the calendar heats up and the road becomes
more bumpy. The closer we get to October the more 
uncomfortable traders will become because the October
dip is the longest running trend around. That dip is
produced by a weak earnings cycle and mutual fund 
rebalancing before the typical year end rally. Do 
the bulls have the conviction to push us higher in
front of that trend? We should have that answer 
really soon.   

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Coinstar Inc - CSTR - close: 22.63 change: +1.93

WHAT TO WATCH: Hmmm... it's a case of the mysterious bullish 
reversal.  As of yesterday CSTR was headed lower with a new sell 
signal on its MACD.  Yet today someone screamed "buy" and shares 
soared 9.3 percent on huge volume to breakout over resistance at 
$22.00.  This is a new 18-month high for the stock.  Yet 
strangely we can't find any news to explain the rally.




---

Deutsche Tele - DT - close: 18.35 change: +0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: Some traders don't like to play ADRs or ADS 
stocks, which represent foreign companies traded on overseas 
exchanges.  They tend to gap open a lot and it's understandable 
why some traders don't want the risk.  We find that today's gap 
higher in DT may be worth taking note of.  DT rallied 2.9 percent 
on above average volume to break through resistance at its simple 
200-dma and the $18.00 level.  These are new six-month highs and 
it has produced a new buy signal on its P&F chart.  
Unfortunately, there appears to be P&F resistance at $19.00.  
Only aggressive traders should consider following this breakout.




---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.72 change: +1.14

WHAT TO WATCH: The NWX networking index was one of today's best 
performing sectors with a 2.15 percent rally.  JNPR out performed 
its peers with a 4.6 percent climb.  The move today in JNPR broke 
through round-number psychological resistance at $25.00 to hit 
new 4 1/2-month highs on above average volume.  That looks pretty 
bullish to us.  However, bulls need to watch for more resistance 
at the $28.00 level.  





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch 
-----------------------------------

AUO $13.68 +0.55 - This is a new two-month high for AUO and the 
stock looks ready to break through the $14 level soon.

SU $30.34 +0.97 - Here's a oil and gas stock that is breaking 
through resistance at $30.00 to hit new all-time highs.

BKS $36.80 +0.75 - We're noticing that BKS has broken out above 
resistance to hit new 2 1/2-year highs today.

MSO $14.81 +1.64 - We're not willing to chase it but the rally in 
Martha Stewart's company is amazing.  



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Mixed Signals
- J. Brown

The market continues to flash investors mixed signals.  The Dow 
Industrials did rally but the bounce began to fail this 
afternoon.  Meanwhile the NASDAQ Composite continued to climb and 
broke through its simple 100-dma.  The S&P 500 is out performing 
the Dow today but it too is stuck under resistance.  Overall the 
market turned in a rather bullish session.  Every sector closed 
in the green with homebuilders, networking and oil stocks as the 
strongest sectors.

Market internals were very bullish.  Advancers beat decliners by 
20-to-7 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was 
about 3 times down volume on the NYSE and about 2.5 times down 
volume on the NASDAQ.  

Investors appeared to interpret the FOMC's interest rate hike to 
1.75 percent, the third hike this year, as a positive vote of 
confidence on the economy.  Yet bonds continued to climb even as 
stocks ticked higher.  If the economy is improving why are 
investors moving money into the "safety" of bonds?  Jim goes into 
more depth in tonight's market wrap.  

Another boost to investor confidence today was the housing 
starts, which came in above economists' expectations.  
Homebuilders were the best performers today with a 4 percent 
rally in the DJUSHB index.  Adding fuel to the move was KBH and 
LEN who both reported earnings and beat estimates last night.  

Sounds like a bunch of good news doesn't it?  Somehow traders are 
turning a blind eye to the rise in crude oil.  Prices climbed to 
over $47 a barrel today and closed at $46.26 up 1.46 percent.  
The OIX oil index soared 2.77 percent to hit new all-time highs.  
Rising oil prices may be good for the producers and refiners but 
it takes a heavy toll on the rest of the economy from 
manufacturers to consumers.  

If the oil issue wasn't bad enough Wall Street seems to be 
ignoring the steady stream of earnings warnings as well.  There 
was a truck load of bad news from the technology sector today but 
the group still churned higher.  Of course some of today's 
earnings news was positive but it didn't come from the technology 
sector.  Besides I don't believe that a couple of strong 
earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers 
(LEH) was enough to inspire a new wave of confidence.   The 
brokers almost always beat the estimates and the earnings 
warnings are only supposed to grow in number as we near the next 
earnings season.

Speaking of confidence I don't have much confidence in bullish
plays with the VIX/VXO volatility indices trading so low today.  
The VXO hit new multi-year lows at 12.86 this afternoon.  We 
don't have to tell you just how bearish that is on a contrarian 
basis.  Then again as Art Cashin reiterated on CNBC today the 
market tends to fool the greatest number of people as often as 
possible and if you've been watching the volume of puts on the 
QQQs lately then the market should be heading higher to confound 
the hordes of put owners looking for a decline on the NASDAQ.

Yes, we have plenty of mixed signals.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10244

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10250
 50-dma: 10128
200-dma: 10272



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1129

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1123
 50-dma: 1101
200-dma: 1116



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1435

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1416
 50-dma: 1381
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.66 -0.77
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 12.86 -0.92
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.30 -0.26


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.76        834,590       631,199
Equity Only    0.72        672,724       483,557
OEX            0.92         20,512        18,944
QQQ            1.39         67,466        94,183


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          62.6    + 1     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    + 2     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       61.4    + 1.4   Bear Correction
S&P 100       58.0    + 2     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.02
10-dma: 0.87
21-dma: 1.03
55-dma: 1.20


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2015      1984
Decliners     798      1025

New Highs     169        80
New Lows       18        31

Up Volume   1181M     1050M
Down Vol.    407M      425M

Total Vol.  1607M     1508M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/14/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

After the last few weeks of just minor changes we're seeing
some heavy volume in the commercials' positions.  They added
27K contracts to their longs and 43K contracts to their shorts.
This is the most bearish the "smart money" has been in weeks.
Small traders also added to positions with a net gain in 
their bullish bias, naturally.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)
09/07/04      415,952   426,342   (10,390)   (1.2%)
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%
09/07/04      157,732   130,817    26,915     9.3%
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Hmm... it looks like commercials have pulled back a bit
on their e-mini short positions but they remain net bearish
on the market.  Small traders didn't make any big changes
and remain strongly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)
09/07/04      371,111   600,593   (229,482)  (23.6%)
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%
09/07/04      286,194     80,075   206,119    56.2%
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is where it gets interesting.  The NDX futures witnessed
some huge surges in volume.  Commercial traders' long positions
rose 25 percent.  Yet their short positions rose 34 percent.
The overall change was a sharp reduction in their net bullish
bias.  Small traders also opened their wallets this past report.
Long positions more than doubled and short positions surged
125 percent.  Yet small traders remain net bullish.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%
09/07/04       51,814     44,179     7,635    7.9%
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%
09/07/04       16,817    12,561     4,256    14.5%
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Wow!  After weeks of very little action the DJ futures are 
finally seeing some volume.  Long and short positions for
commercial traders' both rose 41 percent.  Thus their overall
bias didn't change.  Small traders also raised their bets
and remain strongly net bearish.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%
09/07/04       29,128    24,011    5,117       9.6%
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)
09/07/04        5,041     8,656   (3,615)   (26.4%)
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-21-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  IMN, MVK, ETM, SMRT

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

IMN - tech stock short -
  Be careful here.  IMN appears to be breaking to the upside
  from its recent neutral consolidation.  We would not suggest
  new bearish positions until IMN traded back under $35.25-35.00.
 
 
MVK - non-tech long -
  Heads up!  MVK dropped 2.7 percent and dipped to $29.60 
  after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from a "buy" to a 
  "hold".  Shares bounced back above the $30 level before the close
  but we remain cautious.  It would appear that traders bought the
  dip to $29.60 three times today.
 
 
ETM - non-tech short -
  ETM continues to sink.  Readers can prepare to exit as the
  stock nears our initial target at $32.00 then again at this rate
  ETM may hit $30 by the end of the week.
 
 
SMRT - non-tech short - 
  Uh-oh!  The bounce in SMRT looks dangerous.  Shares dipped
  to their exponential 200-dma on Monday and bounced.  Now 
  we're seeing some strong follow through.  We are not suggesting
  new positions and Readers may want to tighten their stops.
  We're leaving ours at $16.01 for now.



==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UBS     UBS                        72.38     +2.58
CHL     China Mobil Ltd            15.90     +0.58
FTE     France Telecom             25.39     +0.78
SC      Shell Transport            47.03     +1.54
JPM     J.P.Morgan Chase & Co      40.10     +0.72
ALL     Allstate Corp              49.08     +0.69

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

BVF     Biovail Corp               18.05     +1.22
ENDP    Endo Pharmaceuticals       18.23     +1.21
EFD     Efunds Corp                18.70     +2.69
MSO     Martha Stewart Omni Living 14.81     +1.64
MTN     Vail Resorts Inc           19.28     +1.27
LEXR    Lexar Media                 8.78     +1.12

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)            103.82     +3.36
E       Eni Spa (ADS)             110.66     +3.51
DB      Deutsche Bank              75.10     +2.85
NKE     Nike Inc                   79.35     +1.35
LEH     Lehman Brothers            79.75     +3.73
JNPR    Juniper Networks           25.72     +1.14
GENZ    Genzyme Corp               56.16     +1.88

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CL      Colgate-Palmolive          46.07     -2.16
APOL    Apollo Group               72.00     -3.82
RAI     Reynolds American          68.10     -1.79
X       U.S.Steel                  36.08     -1.71
PLMO    PalmOne Inc                31.60     -5.68
PRX     Par Pharmaceuticals        37.80     -2.93
BDY     Bradley Pharmaceuticals    20.53     -1.80

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ITLA    ITLA Capital               44.90     -1.59
LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             65.16     -0.35
SAFC    Safeco Corp                48.37     -0.43
SIR     Sirva Inc                  22.39     -0.16
FNB     FNB Corp                   22.18     -0.22
MCRS    Micro System Inc           50.20     -0.59
FRC     First Republic             45.47     -0.90

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