PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 09-21-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Surprise, No Surprise Watch List: Tonight's list is dominated by bullish candidates Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 09-21-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10244.93 + 40.00 10270.52 10200.25 1.62 bln 2238/ 979 NASDAQ 1921.18 + 13.10 1925.85 1909.43 1.56 bln 2023/1108 S&P 100 544.74 + 2.81 546.08 541.93 Totals 4261/2087 S&P 500 1129.30 + 7.10 1131.54 1122.20 SOX 403.75 + 3.90 406.66 399.90 RUS 2000 576.92 + 6.18 577.15 570.74 DJ TRANS 3271.22 + 28.90 3271.62 3243.11 VIX 13.66 - 0.77 15.97 13.39 VXO (VIX-O)12.86 - 0.92 14.15 12.66 VXN 20.30 - 0.26 20.70 19.88 Total Volume 3,472M Total UpVol 2,519M Total DnVol 892M Total Adv 4821 Total Dcl 2403 52wk Highs 270 52wk Lows 71 TRIN 0.72 NAZTRIN 0.86 PUT/CALL 0.76 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Surprise, No Surprise by Jim Brown The FOMC meeting has passed into the history books and there was very little change from the last meeting. The Fed hiked rates and kept the "measured pace" language. Traders hoping for a break in the pace were disappointed that the expected surprise was not delivered. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart NDX Chart Russell Chart SOX Chart The markets started out positive with traders cheering the jump in Residential Construction and ignoring the now routine drop in Chain Store Sales. The Chain Store Sales number fell -1.1% for the week and continued the weak back to school season. The drop was the sharpest decline since June and analysts suggested improper seasonal adjustments were the problem. The falling mortgage interest rates continued to push New Home Construction back to the two million level in August. This continued the growth from July where the headline number jumped +171,000 to 1.988M. The single family starts are growing slower than multifamily units but both are growing and that is good news for the economy. Building permits did drop -114,000 in August but with fall weather ahead this is a normal seasonal occurrence. Builders are taking a page from the auto dealer play book and they are offering cash back, upgrades, furniture, cheap interest and even vacations to induce buyers to make the commitment now and not hold inventory over the winter. Despite the Fed raising rates to 1.75% today the real rates fell with bonds jumping on the Fed announcement. The ten-year rate fell to 4.04% and a new five-month low. This is a reaction to the weak economics and the slow and measured pace comments. Bond traders still expect the Fed to take a pass at the November meeting. As I stated above the Fed meeting was a non-event with the quarter point hike as expected. The statement was mixed on economic comments. The Fed said output growth appears to have regained some traction after moderating earlier in the year. They felt labor conditions had improved only modestly and inflation expectations have eased. They said the risk of inflation and deflation were still roughly equal. The committee kept its "pace that will likely be measured" language and raised the rate to remove the current over accommodative posture. Yawn, no surprise and no change with the exception of the possibly slightly stronger language about the economy. You would have to look hard to see it. Traders initially thought it was a concession to the future and a potentially softer side of the Fed but once the full statement saw the light of day the excitement faded. The markets spiked on the news as they always do then faded as is the norm. Once the smoke cleared a buy program tried to break the overhead resistance but all they got for their effort was a failed rally. The Dow fell back below 10250 which has become short term resistance. The Nasdaq fell back to 1920 and the upper end of its range for the last two weeks, also strong resistance. The SPX broke 1130 for about 20 min before slipping back below that strong resistance level at the close. The only index to really close above its recent resistance was the Russell at 576.80 and that was tenuous at best. After the close the various futures contracts bled a few more points despite some decent earnings and no real warnings. Adobe beat the street and raised guidance. PAYX reported inline with estimates as well as CBK. JBL beat analysts by a penny and traded up about +1.60 in after hours. The markets had traded higher early in the day after Lehman and Goldman both beat estimates by a mile. General Mills was a slight drag on the market after it reported earnings that fell -19% due to higher prices for its ingredients. It was amazing we moved higher at all with oil reaching a new five week high and trading over $47 for most of the day. The futures closed at $46.90 but fear of more terrorist acts, Yukos and production slowdowns due to the hurricanes is keeping it higher. Tomorrow at 10:30 we get the oil and gas inventories for the week and we have seen drops in inventories for the last seven weeks. It appears traders are speculating that trend will continue. The drop in inventory levels has been due to refineries reluctance to buy the high priced oil according to analysts. With the summer driving season over they are playing chicken with supplies and hoping to produce only as much gasoline as necessary to avoid passing the high prices up the chain. Eventually we will reach a level where gasoline inventories will force them to add to crude supplies. The XOI Oil Index rose +20 for the day and it was the largest one day jump since July 29th 2002. The 695.75 close is a seven-year high. In a complete disconnect from reality the Dow transports also hit a new five year high at 3271. Something is definitely wrong with this picture. The earnings picture took another turn south today with Abby Joseph Cohen predicting profit growth of only +5% for all of 2005. That is the lowest level I have heard and even lower than the +8.5% Reuters number from last week. Seems we are faced with a race to quote lower for this cycle instead of the constantly increasing quotes for the last couple quarters. According to Zachs 85% of companies met or exceeded earnings in Q2 and that quarter finished with +34% earnings growth. Zachs current estimate for the 3Q earnings growth is +14% to +15%. This is below the +13% to +17% range given by Reuters just last Friday. Assuming the numbers are close and will not get worse is that still confirmation of a growing economy and justification for a bull market? In most cases the answer is yes. We are just spoiled by the huge gains over the last year. I mentioned earlier that the bonds soared on the Fed announcement. Does that strike you as strange? It should because there are only two real reasons for bonds to be soaring. Either inflation is dead for the foreseeable future or the economy is slipping back into recession. The Fed comment today suggests the inflation monster is not dead but at least contained for the near term. The other side of that coin is the economic strength. I just profiled the earnings deceleration for you above. We have been getting daily tech warnings and the chip sector could be on the verge of yet another round of order push outs. Could it be that BOTH possibilities are possible. Could inflation be dropping along with the economy because we are heading into a depression? Scary thought but how else do you justify the four month drop in real interest rates and the rise in bond prices? Doesn't the Fed want rates to go higher and bonds to weaken? With "real" rates falling the Fed may be forced to raise rates even faster to slow the descent. The various possibilities here for the economic forecast are numerous enough to make your head spin. Those analysts that get paid the big bucks are not quite as positive about the markets chances as they were just a couple weeks ago. They are now claiming the market rallied on the post convention Bush bounce, the drop in oil prices from the 8/20 August highs and the recovery in the Jobs numbers. The Arnold speech was given as the turning point in the market. That was August 31st and well after the price of oil began to drop and long after the 8/16 beginning of the current rally. It was however the rebirth of the current rally which had failed for two days before that 8/31 Arnold speech. August 31st was also the turning point in oil prices at their $41.40 low. The march higher was choppy as the various Yukos/IRAQ scenarios played out but for the last week there has been no hesitation. The prices are nearing the August highs and the equity markets are not paying attention. I believe this cannot continue indefinitely. The current warning ratio is nearly 3:1 compared to those who have affirmed guidance. We are hearing on all fronts that profits are decelerating and analysts are racing to post the lowest estimate. Money is pouring into bonds while overall economics are less than inspiring. My point to all of this is what will push traders to chase prices higher? Abby said it best today. She said the early stages of a bull market are full of vim and vigor. Once that initial stage has passed and the consolidation begins the next stage of the market is marked by durability. The sex appeal has gone and the lure of doubling your money has passed. Now traders have to decide is the potential for another +10% to +20% is worth the risk. Is it worth buying more at three-month highs and at strong resistance? That brings us to tomorrow and the rest of the week. The SPX, Nasdaq and Russell are all right at very strong resistance and are either poised to break out or break down. I know you have heard this before but if you are a bear this is exactly where you want to enter your next short. If you are a bull this is the resistance that must break for any material move to succeed. What if this resistance does break? What then? The SPX has even stronger resistance at 1140 and 1150. The odds of those breaking before the election are very slim. The S&P is the strongest of the major indexes with the Dow and Nasdaq still in a down trend even if they break their current resistance levels. I don't want to belabor the facts but the markets are not as bullish as some would have you think. I do believe we will move higher before the end of the year and we should move higher into the election. How much higher is the question, when and why? With the earnings warning season due to increase in intensity as each day passes the bears are getting excited. The bulls are saying so what? We know that already, buy more, there is always a post election rally. I fear that is exactly the sentiment that we should worry about. Is it just the expectation of the post election bounce that is really powering all the bad news rallies we are seeing? The Stock Traders Almanac does a great job in telling us how the markets have moved both before and after every election cycle for the last fifty years. The trend is well known and every four years traders try to capitalize on it. I have seen several other trends of late fail to appear once the masses begin to depend on them. I am beginning to think this post election cycle may leave something to be desired. I will be happy to ride any wave higher but I am going to be looking for the sharks behind me. This week should be the key for me. Economic reports are few and there should be nothing for the market to focus on other than stocks. If we can move higher this week it would mean strong resistance had failed and bulls found the conviction and volume necessary to overcome not only the resistance but the declining sentiment. Next week the calendar heats up and the road becomes more bumpy. The closer we get to October the more uncomfortable traders will become because the October dip is the longest running trend around. That dip is produced by a weak earnings cycle and mutual fund rebalancing before the typical year end rally. Do the bulls have the conviction to push us higher in front of that trend? We should have that answer really soon. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Coinstar Inc - CSTR - close: 22.63 change: +1.93 WHAT TO WATCH: Hmmm... it's a case of the mysterious bullish reversal. As of yesterday CSTR was headed lower with a new sell signal on its MACD. Yet today someone screamed "buy" and shares soared 9.3 percent on huge volume to breakout over resistance at $22.00. This is a new 18-month high for the stock. Yet strangely we can't find any news to explain the rally. --- Deutsche Tele - DT - close: 18.35 change: +0.52 WHAT TO WATCH: Some traders don't like to play ADRs or ADS stocks, which represent foreign companies traded on overseas exchanges. They tend to gap open a lot and it's understandable why some traders don't want the risk. We find that today's gap higher in DT may be worth taking note of. DT rallied 2.9 percent on above average volume to break through resistance at its simple 200-dma and the $18.00 level. These are new six-month highs and it has produced a new buy signal on its P&F chart. Unfortunately, there appears to be P&F resistance at $19.00. Only aggressive traders should consider following this breakout. --- Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.72 change: +1.14 WHAT TO WATCH: The NWX networking index was one of today's best performing sectors with a 2.15 percent rally. JNPR out performed its peers with a 4.6 percent climb. The move today in JNPR broke through round-number psychological resistance at $25.00 to hit new 4 1/2-month highs on above average volume. That looks pretty bullish to us. However, bulls need to watch for more resistance at the $28.00 level. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- AUO $13.68 +0.55 - This is a new two-month high for AUO and the stock looks ready to break through the $14 level soon. SU $30.34 +0.97 - Here's a oil and gas stock that is breaking through resistance at $30.00 to hit new all-time highs. BKS $36.80 +0.75 - We're noticing that BKS has broken out above resistance to hit new 2 1/2-year highs today. MSO $14.81 +1.64 - We're not willing to chase it but the rally in Martha Stewart's company is amazing. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Mixed Signals - J. Brown The market continues to flash investors mixed signals. The Dow Industrials did rally but the bounce began to fail this afternoon. Meanwhile the NASDAQ Composite continued to climb and broke through its simple 100-dma. The S&P 500 is out performing the Dow today but it too is stuck under resistance. Overall the market turned in a rather bullish session. Every sector closed in the green with homebuilders, networking and oil stocks as the strongest sectors. Market internals were very bullish. Advancers beat decliners by 20-to-7 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ. Up volume was about 3 times down volume on the NYSE and about 2.5 times down volume on the NASDAQ. Investors appeared to interpret the FOMC's interest rate hike to 1.75 percent, the third hike this year, as a positive vote of confidence on the economy. Yet bonds continued to climb even as stocks ticked higher. If the economy is improving why are investors moving money into the "safety" of bonds? Jim goes into more depth in tonight's market wrap. Another boost to investor confidence today was the housing starts, which came in above economists' expectations. Homebuilders were the best performers today with a 4 percent rally in the DJUSHB index. Adding fuel to the move was KBH and LEN who both reported earnings and beat estimates last night. Sounds like a bunch of good news doesn't it? Somehow traders are turning a blind eye to the rise in crude oil. Prices climbed to over $47 a barrel today and closed at $46.26 up 1.46 percent. The OIX oil index soared 2.77 percent to hit new all-time highs. Rising oil prices may be good for the producers and refiners but it takes a heavy toll on the rest of the economy from manufacturers to consumers. If the oil issue wasn't bad enough Wall Street seems to be ignoring the steady stream of earnings warnings as well. There was a truck load of bad news from the technology sector today but the group still churned higher. Of course some of today's earnings news was positive but it didn't come from the technology sector. Besides I don't believe that a couple of strong earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) was enough to inspire a new wave of confidence. The brokers almost always beat the estimates and the earnings warnings are only supposed to grow in number as we near the next earnings season. Speaking of confidence I don't have much confidence in bullish plays with the VIX/VXO volatility indices trading so low today. The VXO hit new multi-year lows at 12.86 this afternoon. We don't have to tell you just how bearish that is on a contrarian basis. Then again as Art Cashin reiterated on CNBC today the market tends to fool the greatest number of people as often as possible and if you've been watching the volume of puts on the QQQs lately then the market should be heading higher to confound the hordes of put owners looking for a decline on the NASDAQ. Yes, we have plenty of mixed signals. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9230 Current : 10244 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10250 50-dma: 10128 200-dma: 10272 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 990 Current : 1129 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1123 50-dma: 1101 200-dma: 1116 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1435 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1416 50-dma: 1381 200-dma: 1440 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.66 -0.77 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 12.86 -0.92 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 20.30 -0.26 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.76 834,590 631,199 Equity Only 0.72 672,724 483,557 OEX 0.92 20,512 18,944 QQQ 1.39 67,466 94,183 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 62.6 + 1 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 45.0 + 2 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 56.6 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 61.4 + 1.4 Bear Correction S&P 100 58.0 + 2 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.02 10-dma: 0.87 21-dma: 1.03 55-dma: 1.20 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2015 1984 Decliners 798 1025 New Highs 169 80 New Lows 18 31 Up Volume 1181M 1050M Down Vol. 407M 425M Total Vol. 1607M 1508M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/14/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 After the last few weeks of just minor changes we're seeing some heavy volume in the commercials' positions. They added 27K contracts to their longs and 43K contracts to their shorts. This is the most bearish the "smart money" has been in weeks. Small traders also added to positions with a net gain in their bullish bias, naturally. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/24/04 402,599 420,478 (17,879) (2.2%) 08/31/04 406,637 416,778 (10,141) (1.2%) 09/07/04 415,952 426,342 (10,390) (1.2%) 09/14/04 442,049 469,982 (27,933) (3.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 135,151 100,351 34,800 14.7% 08/31/04 144,120 114,343 29,777 11.5% 09/07/04 157,732 130,817 26,915 9.3% 09/14/04 167,310 126,513 40,797 13.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Hmm... it looks like commercials have pulled back a bit on their e-mini short positions but they remain net bearish on the market. Small traders didn't make any big changes and remain strongly net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/24/04 392,065 473,911 ( 81,846) ( 9.4%) 08/31/04 372,071 543,100 (171,029) (18.7%) 09/07/04 371,111 600,593 (229,482) (23.6%) 09/14/04 377,643 586,139 (208,496) (21.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 211,995 76,184 135,811 47.1% 08/31/04 258,624 77,036 181,588 54.0% 09/07/04 286,194 80,075 206,119 56.2% 09/14/04 289,155 81,314 207,841 56.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is where it gets interesting. The NDX futures witnessed some huge surges in volume. Commercial traders' long positions rose 25 percent. Yet their short positions rose 34 percent. The overall change was a sharp reduction in their net bullish bias. Small traders also opened their wallets this past report. Long positions more than doubled and short positions surged 125 percent. Yet small traders remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 48,624 43,222 5,402 5.8% 08/31/04 48,167 43,411 4,756 5.2% 09/07/04 51,814 44,179 7,635 7.9% 09/14/04 64,282 59,808 4,474 3.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 11,666 10,068 1,598 7.3% 08/31/04 14,635 10,572 4,063 16.1% 09/07/04 16,817 12,561 4,256 14.5% 09/14/04 36,372 28,584 7,788 12.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Wow! After weeks of very little action the DJ futures are finally seeing some volume. Long and short positions for commercial traders' both rose 41 percent. Thus their overall bias didn't change. Small traders also raised their bets and remain strongly net bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 28,919 23,658 5,261 10.1% 08/31/04 29,143 24,147 4,996 9.3% 09/07/04 29,128 24,011 5,117 9.6% 09/14/04 41,951 34,486 7,465 9.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 5,052 7,214 (2,162) (17.6%) 08/31/04 4,929 7,122 (2,193) (18.2%) 09/07/04 5,041 8,656 (3,615) (26.4%) 09/14/04 8,121 14,425 (6,304) (27.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 09-21-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: IMN, MVK, ETM, SMRT Stock Splits Announcements: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== IMN - tech stock short - Be careful here. IMN appears to be breaking to the upside from its recent neutral consolidation. We would not suggest new bearish positions until IMN traded back under $35.25-35.00. MVK - non-tech long - Heads up! MVK dropped 2.7 percent and dipped to $29.60 after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from a "buy" to a "hold". Shares bounced back above the $30 level before the close but we remain cautious. It would appear that traders bought the dip to $29.60 three times today. ETM - non-tech short - ETM continues to sink. Readers can prepare to exit as the stock nears our initial target at $32.00 then again at this rate ETM may hit $30 by the end of the week. SMRT - non-tech short - Uh-oh! The bounce in SMRT looks dangerous. Shares dipped to their exponential 200-dma on Monday and bounced. Now we're seeing some strong follow through. We are not suggesting new positions and Readers may want to tighten their stops. We're leaving ours at $16.01 for now. ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change UBS UBS 72.38 +2.58 CHL China Mobil Ltd 15.90 +0.58 FTE France Telecom 25.39 +0.78 SC Shell Transport 47.03 +1.54 JPM J.P.Morgan Chase & Co 40.10 +0.72 ALL Allstate Corp 49.08 +0.69 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- BVF Biovail Corp 18.05 +1.22 ENDP Endo Pharmaceuticals 18.23 +1.21 EFD Efunds Corp 18.70 +2.69 MSO Martha Stewart Omni Living 14.81 +1.64 MTN Vail Resorts Inc 19.28 +1.27 LEXR Lexar Media 8.78 +1.12 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TOT Total Sa (ADS) 103.82 +3.36 E Eni Spa (ADS) 110.66 +3.51 DB Deutsche Bank 75.10 +2.85 NKE Nike Inc 79.35 +1.35 LEH Lehman Brothers 79.75 +3.73 JNPR Juniper Networks 25.72 +1.14 GENZ Genzyme Corp 56.16 +1.88 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CL Colgate-Palmolive 46.07 -2.16 APOL Apollo Group 72.00 -3.82 RAI Reynolds American 68.10 -1.79 X U.S.Steel 36.08 -1.71 PLMO PalmOne Inc 31.60 -5.68 PRX Par Pharmaceuticals 37.80 -2.93 BDY Bradley Pharmaceuticals 20.53 -1.80 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- ITLA ITLA Capital 44.90 -1.59 LLY Eli Lilly & Co 65.16 -0.35 SAFC Safeco Corp 48.37 -0.43 SIR Sirva Inc 22.39 -0.16 FNB FNB Corp 22.18 -0.22 MCRS Micro System Inc 50.20 -0.59 FRC First Republic 45.47 -0.90 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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