PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 09-23-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Chips In Charge Watch List: Chocolate to Books and more! Market Sentiment: Follow through ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 09-23-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10038.90 - 70.30 10108.74 10031.16 1.59 bln 1441/1746 NASDAQ 1886.43 + 0.72 1894.67 1883.32 1.39 bln 1409/1614 S&P 100 534.20 - 2.64 536.84 534.12 Totals 2850/3360 S&P 500 1108.36 - 5.20 1113.61 1108.05 W5000 10820.90 - 40.73 10863.33 10816.24 SOX 383.79 + 2.10 397.03 387.80 RUS 2000 565.80 - 0.09 567.76 564.91 DJ TRANS 3173.97 - 20.70 3197.82 3173.75 VIX 14.80 + 0.06 15.08 14.61 VXO (VIX-O)14.87 + 0.30 15.47 14.62 VXN 21.17 + 0.11 21.35 20.90 Total Volume 3,280M Total UpVol 1,307M Total DnVol 1,891M Total Adv 3262 Total Dcl 3807 52wk Highs 134 52wk Lows 84 TRIN 1.52 NAZTRIN 0.75 PUT/CALL 0.92 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Chips In Charge by Jim Brown After only one day of declines the chip sector fought to move back higher and single handedly kept the entire market from a serious disaster. The SOX finished up +2.05 and that kept the Nasdaq in positive territory and the Russell only fractionally negative. The dog was the Dow once again as traders fled from big cap internationals in fear of potential warnings. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SOX Chart Economic reports started off bearish and continued to disappoint as the morning progressed. Jobless Claims jumped back to 350,000 after a couple weeks at lower levels but the jump was blamed on timing related to the hurricanes. Those busy doing cleanup work put off filing until the home chores were done. For future weeks we could see a pickup in temporary hires to do longer term rebuilding but also a pickup in layoffs as those in buildings seriously damaged will have to cut workers until new quarters can be acquired or rebuilt. Evidence of economic weakness came from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which fell from 0.53 in July to only 0.19 in August. Production growth slowed as it appeared the July rebound was short lived and another decline is approaching. Remember June's drop to -0.16 from 0.63 in May and analysts were hanging their hat on the July rebound and that rebound has already lost traction. With energy prices rising along with interest rates the economy is facing an uphill battle. The Conference Board Leading Indicators fell for the third consecutive month and the -0.3% decline was larger than expected. The index is now up only +0.7% for the last six months and very close to losing that ground. The index has not lost ground for three months in a row in over 18 months. With oil prices rising, housing permits slowing and Fed rates moving higher the odds are good this indicator trends lower for the rest of the year. The best news of the day came from the Monthly Mass Layoffs which showed only 69,033 worker layoffs were announced in August compared to 253,929 in July. This is definitely moving in the right direction. The sector hardest hit was still manufacturing with a loss of -17,698 jobs. Four states, California, Florida, New York and Pennsylvania accounted for 56% of the total layoffs. With the holiday season just ahead we should not see any material increase until December. The most negative report for the day actually occurred back in August. The FOMC minutes for the August meeting were released today and the tone was positively bearish toward rates. They believed the economic weakness was short lived and inflation would remain abnormally low. The hawkish rate statement killed all the bullishness about the positive economic comments. "Given the current quite low level of short-term rates, especially when judged against the recent level of inflation, members noted that significant cumulative policy tightening likely would be needed to foster conditions consistent with the Committee's objective for price stability and sustainable economic growth." Bonds immediately sold off and yield on the ten-year jumped +39 basis points to 4.029%. The time spent under 4% this week could be measured in hours not days and the prospect of falling rates was seriously dashed. If the Fed is planning on a "significant cumulative tightening" that could be a long period of measured pace hikes. Back in 1994 the Fed raised from 3% to 6% to blunt the economic boom and inflation chances. They have assured us repeatedly over the last few months they were NOT going to repeat the 1994 scenario that sent real rates back to 8%. Watch their lips move but read the minutes to see the real story. We can kiss lower mortgage rates goodbye based on these minutes. Oil soared again today as reports hit the wire that there was more damage than previously expected in the gulf and oil would not be back up to speed for days or even weeks. Oil hit $49 intraday but sold off into the close after the Department of Energy said they were considering opening the strategic petroleum reserve and loaning oil to several refineries to offset the hurricane loss. This may have slowed the jump in oil prices but it really heated up the political war. The democrats immediately called the move politically motivated despite Kerry severely deriding Bush for not doing it as late as yesterday. So, if Bush didn't open it he was a bad guy and if he did open it he was a bad guy. Only in politics. The Dow opened up in the red and stayed there all day due in part to the $49 oil. However the biggest problem for the Dow is fear more Dow components will warn. MMM has fallen from $85 to $79 over the last two weeks on warning fears. UTX, JNJ, BA, CAT, IBM, etc have all fallen from their highs on earnings worries. For those invested in big caps this is frustrating but for those who are looking for entry points for any end of year rally this is a long awaited event. The Dow traded as low as 10031 today and right on the verge of breaking the 10K level once again. It closed near the low of the day at 10039 as proof bargain hunters are not yet ready to rush into the dip. The Nasdaq struggled to keep its head above water all day but it managed to keep afloat by standing on the SOX. The lack of a drop may only be temporary as the Nasdaq is facing very strong overhead resistance. Should the Nasdaq cave in the next stop could be in the 1850 range. Remember the Nasdaq dropped -35 points on Wednesday tech bulls picked up some chips on the dip. The SOX is the amazing sector with a gain despite the broader market weakness. The SOX bounced off 390 on Wednesday and again today and while it did not manage to mount a serious rebound just holding the high ground was admirable. According to my count over the last week we have had two sector upgrades for chips and one for techs in general. This is definitely a change in trend and there are obviously a few buyers who think we are not going lower. Over the last 10 months the Nasdaq has seen four major rallies. The December rally gained +12%, March rally +9.5%, May +9.7% and August +9.0%. Each rally eventually failed and the Nasdaq made a lower low. Eventually this trend will break but that is not the point I want to make. Each time we saw a consolidation period at the top and then a sharp break to the downside once it became obvious we were not going higher. The Nasdaq may be setting up for this trend to break. A clear signal would have to be a higher low on whatever profit taking pullback is ahead. TrimTabs.com said cash inflows slowed for the week ended on Wednesday to $1.7B from the $2.6B the prior week. The positive cash flow is nice but it is not enough to really keep the markets afloat at the highs. Granted there are a lot of funds with massive cash hoards at present but inflows are still the key to forward progress. Oil companies did not benefit from the oil bounce today because Deutsche Bank downgraded XOM and Shell citing high valuations across the group. Yes, we know oil companies are high but so is oil and the prospects of it being cheap again soon are very slim. Oil seems headed for $50 despite the SPR oil release and the reason is the current event risk. There are 40 days left before the election and the terrorist window for influencing our election is slowly closing. Another window not yet closing is the earnings warning window and it is doing a thriving business. I won't bore you with all the individual details but the odds are the numbers will increase before the quarter is over. Major companies across all sectors are quoting various reasons for the shortfall but the key point is they are all warning. This is not good for the bull's case but the bulls have the election trend on their side. It is going to be a volatile next two weeks as we close the quarter. Given the lack of a material drop in September there could be some funds sitting on cash they will need to invest before the end of the quarter. This also complicates the outlook. For Friday the only material reports are Durable Goods and Existing Home Sales and neither are expected to be market movers. Oil, earnings and event risk are the prime movers and volatility should continue. It is built into the calendar and I do not believe we can count on the pre election bounce. We have never had an election in a post 9/11 terror environment and we do not know what the next 40 days will hold. In reality we could be treading on very thin ice and anything is possible. For Friday we could see further weakness but there is nothing we can point to for confirmation. The SPX closed under its 100dma at 1109 but futures are trading up as I type this. I suspect Friday would be a good day to watch instead of play in traffic. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Hershey Foods - HSY - close: 46.30 change: -0.15 WHAT TO WATCH: The breakdown in HSY is picking up a little speed here. The stock has been climbing steadily for months with investors buying dips to its simple 50-dma. They bought the dip again last week but shares quickly failed. Now HSY has broken its rising channel and is testing technical support at the simple 100-dma. Readers can watch for a drop under $46 or a failed rally under $47.00 as a potential entry point for a move toward $44 and its simple 200-dma. --- Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: 22.51 change: +1.33 WHAT TO WATCH: Wow! DRI turned in a 6.2 percent rally on big volume today. The move was fueled by its earnings news this morning that looked somewhat disappointing. The breakout over its simple 200-dma and the $22.00 level might be trade-worthy but we'd watch for a dip and then consider buying a bounce. --- Finish Line - FINL - close: 30.44 change: -1.06 WHAT TO WATCH: After a very strong rebound from its August lows shares of FINL are finally seeing some profit taking. FINL had been struggling with technical resistance at its simple 200-dma near $32.00 but today's 3.3 percent decline breaks minor support at its rising 10-dma. Volume was very heavy as would be expected consider the move was fueled by FINL's earnings report this morning. The company missed estimates by 2 cents. Short-term traders may want to jump on this as a bearish entry point. --- Scholastic - SCHL - close: 30.60 change: +1.02 WHAT TO WATCH: We don't see any news but SCHL has rallied strongly (+3.44 percent) to breakout over resistance at $30.00- 30.50 and its simple 200-dma to hit new six-month highs. This P&F chart isn't that inspiring but this could be a bullish entry point for a run toward $34. Watch for potential resistance at the top of the gap near $31.00. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- TEX $40.72 +2.01 - TEX has broken out over resistance at $40.00- 40.50 to hit new highs. FRED $16.85 +0.80 - FRED has broken through resistance at $16.50 and its simple 50-dma on strong volume. We would watch for some follow through above $17.05 as a potential entry point. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Follow through - J. Brown Thursday proved to be a mixed day on Wall Street. Bears were undoubtedly disappointed in the lack of follow through from Wednesday's steep decline. The Dow Industrials did slip another 70 points but this was lead by ExxonMobil who received a downgrade as Deutsche Bank lowered their outlook on the entire oil sector. Overall the tone of the market remained slightly negative but technology stocks, retail and gold all closed higher. Declining issues outnumbered advancers 15 to 13 on the NYSE and 16 to 14 on the NASDAQ. Down volume outweighed up volume 2 to 1 on the NYSE but up volume narrowly surpassed down volume on the NASDAQ. Weakness in the financials is normally not a good sign of market health and the BIX index slipped another 1.48 percent to break down below its simple 40 and 50-dma's. The BKX slipped more than 1 percent to crack support at its simple 40 and 200-dma's. Airline stocks also few lower as crude oil traded near record highs at $49 a barrel. Tomorrow could be a toss up. There aren't any major earnings and we've only got the durable goods for August and the existing home sales for August as our only economic reports for Friday. We could see more weakness in the semiconductor sector tomorrow since AMCC came out after the bell to issue a Q3 earnings warning. AMCC joins a crowd of chip companies who have warned for the current quarter. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9230 Current : 10038 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10250 50-dma: 10128 200-dma: 10272 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 990 Current : 1108 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1122 50-dma: 1100 200-dma: 1117 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1405 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1420 50-dma: 1381 200-dma: 1440 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.80 +0.06 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.85 +0.28 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 21.17 +0.11 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.92 562,196 518,122 Equity Only 0.81 438,810 355,896 OEX 1.13 20,334 22,900 QQQ 3.98 22,283 88,603 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 62.7 + 0 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 44.0 - 1 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 56.6 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 61.0 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 100 58.0 + 0 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.03 10-dma: 0.99 21-dma: 1.07 55-dma: 1.19 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1261 1369 Decliners 1528 1599 New Highs 61 45 New Lows 26 24 Up Volume 518M 704M Down Vol. 1041M 644M Total Vol. 1588M 1379M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/14/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 After the last few weeks of just minor changes we're seeing some heavy volume in the commercials' positions. They added 27K contracts to their longs and 43K contracts to their shorts. This is the most bearish the "smart money" has been in weeks. Small traders also added to positions with a net gain in their bullish bias, naturally. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/24/04 402,599 420,478 (17,879) (2.2%) 08/31/04 406,637 416,778 (10,141) (1.2%) 09/07/04 415,952 426,342 (10,390) (1.2%) 09/14/04 442,049 469,982 (27,933) (3.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 135,151 100,351 34,800 14.7% 08/31/04 144,120 114,343 29,777 11.5% 09/07/04 157,732 130,817 26,915 9.3% 09/14/04 167,310 126,513 40,797 13.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Hmm... it looks like commercials have pulled back a bit on their e-mini short positions but they remain net bearish on the market. Small traders didn't make any big changes and remain strongly net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/24/04 392,065 473,911 ( 81,846) ( 9.4%) 08/31/04 372,071 543,100 (171,029) (18.7%) 09/07/04 371,111 600,593 (229,482) (23.6%) 09/14/04 377,643 586,139 (208,496) (21.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 211,995 76,184 135,811 47.1% 08/31/04 258,624 77,036 181,588 54.0% 09/07/04 286,194 80,075 206,119 56.2% 09/14/04 289,155 81,314 207,841 56.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is where it gets interesting. The NDX futures witnessed some huge surges in volume. Commercial traders' long positions rose 25 percent. Yet their short positions rose 34 percent. The overall change was a sharp reduction in their net bullish bias. Small traders also opened their wallets this past report. Long positions more than doubled and short positions surged 125 percent. Yet small traders remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 48,624 43,222 5,402 5.8% 08/31/04 48,167 43,411 4,756 5.2% 09/07/04 51,814 44,179 7,635 7.9% 09/14/04 64,282 59,808 4,474 3.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 11,666 10,068 1,598 7.3% 08/31/04 14,635 10,572 4,063 16.1% 09/07/04 16,817 12,561 4,256 14.5% 09/14/04 36,372 28,584 7,788 12.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Wow! After weeks of very little action the DJ futures are finally seeing some volume. Long and short positions for commercial traders' both rose 41 percent. Thus their overall bias didn't change. Small traders also raised their bets and remain strongly net bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 28,919 23,658 5,261 10.1% 08/31/04 29,143 24,147 4,996 9.3% 09/07/04 29,128 24,011 5,117 9.6% 09/14/04 41,951 34,486 7,465 9.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/24/04 5,052 7,214 (2,162) (17.6%) 08/31/04 4,929 7,122 (2,193) (18.2%) 09/07/04 5,041 8,656 (3,615) (26.4%) 09/14/04 8,121 14,425 (6,304) (27.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 09-23-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: ETM Stock Splits Announcements: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== ETM - non-tech short - ETM traded sideways for a change. We're ready to exit at $32.00 should ETM spike lower. We are going to lower our stop from $36.01 to $34.11 ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SNP China Petro & Chemical 40.15 +0.54 CVS CVS Corp 42.02 +1.72 OMC Omnicom Group 71.70 +0.70 MAY May Dept Stores 26.03 +0.81 HRB H&R Block 49.95 +1.30 AUO Au Optronics 14.28 +0.78 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- MSO Martha Stewart Living 17.55 +2.57 KEYW Essex Corp 11.95 +1.12 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- CA Computer Associates 26.90 +1.60 UST UST Inc 40.36 +1.19 ACH Aluminum Corp 63.10 +4.85 KRI Knight-Ridder Inc 66.71 +1.40 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 45.51 +2.77 DRI Darden Restaurants 22.51 +1.33 TK Teekay Shipping 41.69 +1.19 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- SC Shell Transport 44.14 -1.33 RD Royal Dutch 50.72 -1.21 FNM Fannie Mae 67.15 -3.54 FRE Freddie Mac 64.38 -2.02 FDX Fedex Corp 83.96 -1.25 GDW Golden West Financial 110.32 -2.58 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond 37.59 -1.99 ITT ITT Industries 77.91 -1.28 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- ABK Amback Financial 77.41 -1.03 XOM ExxonMobil 47.76 -1.10 CI Cigna Corp 67.71 -1.02 TROW T.Rowe Price 50.19 -1.25 PCP Precision Cast Parts 58.76 -0.74 THO Thor Industries 27.64 -0.30 NX Quanex Corp 48.51 -0.57 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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