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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/28/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-28-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Sun Still Shining
Watch List:        Hardware to Air Couriers.
Market Sentiment:  Bounce of Speed bump?

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-28-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10077.40 + 88.90 10099.52  9977.92 1.72 bln 2061/1058
NASDAQ   1869.87 + 10.00  1873.86  1852.59 1.56 bln 1906/1172
S&P 100   534.19 +  3.17   535.07   529.86   Totals 3967/2230
S&P 500  1110.06 +  6.54  1111.77  1101.29 
SOX       373.69 -  3.30   377.88   370.17
RUS 2000  565.66 +  7.30   565.73   558.36
DJ TRANS 3208.58 + 31.20  3214.81  3167.30
VIX        13.83 -  0.79    14.84    13.69
VXO (VIX-O)13.23 -  1.07    14.68    13.05
VXN        21.36 -  0.56    22.23    21.20 
Total Volume 3,577M
Total UpVol  2,199M
Total DnVol  1,324M
Total Adv  4461
Total Dcl  2532
52wk Highs  261
52wk Lows   161
TRIN       1.01
NAZTRIN    1.44
PUT/CALL   0.92
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Sun Still Shining
by Jim Brown

Oil crossed $50 and the world did not end. In fact the 
Dow ended with a +88 point gain and even more amazing 
the Transports closed with a +31 point gain. Feel like
you are seeing the Twilight Zone come to life? You are
not alone as millions of investors wonder how oil can
double in price and the transports can soar. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 

The morning started off with a reaction dip after some
disappointing economic news on top of $50 oil but it
recovered on end of quarter window dressing. The morning
reports started off with Chain Store Sales that fell 
-0.3% on top of the -1.1% for the prior week. Nothing
new here with weak back to school buying and high gas
prices. Year over year growth was actually up +3.5%
and the best YOY growth since July. 

The worst report for the day was Consumer Confidence 
and it dropped from 98.7 to 96.8 for September. This
was the lowest level since May and most of the drop
was due to the present conditions component that fell
more than -5 points to 95.5 from 100.7. Consumers felt
the jobs market had weakened significantly. Those who
felt jobs were plentiful fell to their lowest level
since May. Those consumers planning to buy homes and 
cars fell slightly as well. You can bet that the constant
reporting on $50 oil is not going to improve confidence
any time soon. 

Let's dive right into the oil conversation since it is
controlling the majority of air time. Oil broke $50 and
the world did not come to an end and there was not an
immediate sell off. Oil traded over $50 and closed at
$49.90 an all time high. I use that term loosely because
in inflation weighted dollars the 1970s oil crisis saw
oil at levels that would equate to $80 today. The actual
contract price today at $50 is the highest actual price
on record and it may not get any better. 

The high prices today were brought to you by Nigeria
if you believe the talking heads on TV. Nigeria has a
serious internal problem with militants. They kidnap
and ransom hostages to achieve their demands and target
oil production to emphasize those demands. They are
currently warning they will declare all out war on oil
on October 1st if their demands are not met. Various
oil producers are evacuating workers from the country
until the problem is resolved. Nigeria currently 
exports about 2.5 million barrels per day of which 
1.6 million come to the U.S. That makes them our fifth
largest importer. With the world currently in an oil 
crisis we don't need to lose 2.5 mil bbls of light 
sweet crude. 

That brings us to the next topic. Saudi Arabia said 
today they were going to up production from 9.5M to 
11M barrels per day. Almost immediately an entire army
of oil experts hit the airwaves to dispute this increase.
The general consensus is that Saudi could increase total
output to 11 million but it would take weeks if not
months for the production increase to occur. Secondly
the additional oil would be "heavy" oil, not the light
sweet crude that refiners want. According to several
sources there is no refinery capacity available to
refine any additional heavy oil. That is like pulling
into a filling station for unleaded and the dealer
saying he only has diesel. That may help somebody else
but it will not help you. 

Think $50 is high, stick around most analysts expect
even higher levels soon. T. Boone Pickens said today
that $60 oil was just around the corner and he was not
alone. Cambridge Energy Research Associates said this
years rate of demand growth has more than doubled the
average for the last six years. They claim over the 
last decade there was always a 3-5 million bbl cushion
between peak demand and average capacity. This cushion
kept prices in check and smoothed out the peaks and 
valleys of seasonal demand. Currently this cushion has
dropped to only 1.4 million bbls and less than the 
levels at the beginning of the 1973 crisis. Every time
you hear about Iraq sabotage taking them offline for 
several days that eliminates the cushion. If Nigerian 
militants takes their production offline for a week 
that eliminates the cushion and puts us in a deficit.
If Yukos stops production in some sector because they
no longer have the cash to pay for transportation that
puts us into a deficit. The bottom line is the world 
economy is careening down the highway with a gas tank
running on empty. We are filling up at every filling 
station we pass but the first time we hit one that is
dry the economic bus will stop.  

I have preached several times about Hubbert's Peak
and the coming global peak in production currently 
estimated for 2008. Once that peak has arrived we
will be pumping less oil every day that passes than
the day before. Critics claim that new technology 
will continue to improve drilling and pumping and
let us recover more oil from new and existing fields
than in the past. This is true but, picture the earth
as a big sponge. When oil drilling first began you
could literally find it oozing to the top on its
own in many places. Wells were drilled in hundreds
of feet. Current technology lets us drill wells that
are miles deep in up to 10,000 feet of water in the
roughest parts of the ocean. We are light years from
our beginning but we are sucking oil out of the sponge
at record rates. If you pickup a wet sponge out of the
kitchen sink the first couple squeezes produce plenty
of water. After the first couple squeezes it takes 
more and more effort to get any more water to flow.
New technology may be able to milk a few more drops
if you have the patience to wait. If you are using 
the sponge to put out a fire on the stove you don't
have time to wait. 

Currently the global oil demand is 82.5 million bbls 
per day according to recognized estimates. Some say
this is absurdly low and the real demand is already
near 88 million bbls because producing countries are
keeping more and more for their own uses and it is
not counted in the "official" quotes. Using the 
"quoted" demand levels our demand curve looks like 
this:

Millions of barrels per day
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
82.5 85.0 87.5 90.0 92.5 95.0

82.5 MBPD = 30.1 BILLION barrels per year
95.0 MBPD = 34.7 BILLION barrels per year

Remember, demand growth this year is DOUBLE the 
average growth rate of the prior six years. That
means the chart above was probably outdated the
day after it was produced. As we can see from the
daily barrage of news stories current demand is 
pushing production levels to record twenty five year
highs and to the breaking point. Every minor crisis 
puts us that much closer to more demand than production
and when that happens $50 oil will look cheap. It will
happen. The only question is when. How much longer 
can we continue finding, drilling and pumping an
additional 30+ billion barrels per year?

The situation is becoming serious and there was a 
news story after the close that the Chinese military
was said to be eying oil rich lands in Malaysia and 
Indonesia. While I doubt the veracity of this story
it will not be long before there will be wars over
the few remaining drops of oil in our global sponge.
Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital sees $100 oil
by the end of the decade. 

The problem for investors is not your next tank of
gas but the eventual impact to corporate earnings.
Currently only one of every ten companies claim the
higher oil prices are impacting profits. I would also
hasten to remind everyone that oil was trading at $25
this time last year. You and I understand that oil
prices cannot double without a material impact to 
earnings for almost every company. Investors and
corporations are still in denial. Everyone believes
that this is just a spike and it will pass. A Saudi
representative was interviewed again today and he
quoted a future price target of $25. This jawboning
is keeping the general public in the dark about the
disaster ahead. 

We know that there is a pre election event risk in
oil because the analysts have told us there is. Right
or wrong this is what everyone believes. Everyone also
believes that once the election is over oil will return
to more reasonable levels. While I agree there may be
some event risk priced into the crude futures and we
may decline after the election we will still face the
rising demand and slowing production problem. Sell oil
stocks the week before the election and buy the post
election energy dip and hold for the long term.

Oil was not the only thing on the markets mind today
but you would have to look hard to find anything else.
One point of note was a positive guidance update from
CAT. Caterpillar said sales were so strong that revenue
will rise +25% to +30% for the full year. Before you
rush out and buy CAT you should know their prior
forecast was for a +25% increase. Always check your
facts before pulling the trigger. CAT said earnings
would rise +80% to +85% which was right inline with 
its previous forecast. Traders hearing the news rushed
to buy the stock and Dow component CAT spiked nearly
+$3 intraday. Not bad for a basically inline guidance
update. To be fair there was some concern they would
miss the prior estimates and Caterpillar comments like
"unprecedented surge in orders" and "demand for heavy
duty truck engines has skyrocketed" are always good
for some knee jerk buying. 

It was a good day for Google. The 40-day quiet period
expired which prevents brokerage companies from issuing
research about stocks they IPO. CSFB, Thomas Weisel 
Partners, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and WR Hambrecht 
all instituted coverage at an "outperform" but the 
comments were less than exciting. The price target of
$145 was considered light in relation with its current
gains. The companies made sure they expressed the 
risks as well as potential rewards and the risks 
were many. The main focus was increasing competition
and a maturing market. Mary Meeker, Internet analyst
for Morgan Stanely gave the following comment. "We 
believe IF Google continues to execute, the company
SHOULD be well positioned to benefit from ongoing 
secular Internet user and usage growth." The keywords
there were obviously IF and SHOULD. TWP analyst Christa
Charles pointed out that Google has not been "overtly
advertiser friendly" and it would have to correct that
to be successful. She also said "We believe the 
likelihood that Google invests in negative projects 
is high." Still traders flocked to the stock and 
shorts were squeezed once again with a +$8.60 gain 
to $126.70. 

On the downside Cypress Semiconductor warned for the
second time in a month citing additional weakness 
across multiple markets. Share of CY fell to a 16-month
low at $8.50. Earnings are now expected to be less than
a nickel compared to their prior forecast of up to 15
cents per share. This sent the SOX into negative
territory and shook it free from 380 support. Oddly
the Nasdaq and Russell finished in positive territory
with the Russell on fire with a +7.30 gain. After the
bell MSPD warned and that should apply additional 
pressure to the SOX on Wednesday. The problem was a
drop in orders from Asia and a "widespread buildup of
inventory at key customers." Same song, 87th verse.

The Caterpillar bounce sent the Dow above 10040 
resistance and short covering began. When a Dow stock
like CAT jumps +$3 it impacts not only the Dow but the
S&P. When the announcement was made the markets had 
been hovering near the highs and the spike just upset
the balance of power. A buy program at 2:PM also kept
the movement going. Dow 10100 appears to be current
resistance and a level I would watch on Wednesday. 

The Nasdaq was weak due to the SOX weakness but the
end of day buy program pushed it back to yesterday's
resistance highs. There was very little decline into
the close and 1875 remains initial resistance. 

The rebound off the day's lows gave all the appearances
of weak end of quarter window dressing. The stocks bought
were the recent winners and would make funds look a lot
smarter to investors with those stocks in their statement.
It was no surprise the energy sector found itself the
recipient of late day cash flows. 

For Wednesday we will start out with the GDP report 
with expectations for a +3.0% gain. This could be a
challenge or a surprise but the risk is to the downside.
At 10:30 we will get the weekly crude oil inventories
and we have seen a drop in supplies for eight straight
weeks. Last week inventories dropped -9.1 million bbls
with -7 mil drop the week before. Traders are saying 
they expect another drop of -1.5 mil but a much larger
drop could really explode prices higher. Economic reports
increase on Thursday and Friday as we begin to get the
September production data. 

With two days left in the quarter the potential for 
another window dressing day is strong although the 
impact should be minimal. The coming economic reports
should put a little fear into the market just as we 
enter October. Speaking of fear, the VXO is right back 
down and with the low today of 13.05 very close to 
retesting the eight year low set last Tuesday. Remember
last Tuesday? That was when the Dow was at 10270 and 
the Nasdaq 1925, a two month high. Be very careful with
the VXO this low.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 18.24 change: -0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: We're going to keep an eye on HPQ.  The stock 
appears to be struggling with resistance at $19.00, which is 
close to the top of the gap down in August.  The MACD is nearing 
a new "sell" signal and the lack of participation in today's 
rally is rather bearish.  Watch for a drop under $18.00.




---

ASV Inc - ASVI - close: 35.97 change: +2.47

WHAT TO WATCH: After several months of trading sideways between 
$28 and $36 shares of ASVI look ready to breakout through the top 
of its range.  Shares soared 7.3 percent on very big volume (for 
ASVI).  We don't see any news to explain the move at least not 
yet.  Traders may want to consider bullish positions if ASVI 
trades over today's high (36.78) or the $37 level.  The P&F chart 
is already bullish with an ascending triple-top buy signal and a 
$48 price target. 




---

EGL Inc - EAGL - close: 28.91 change: +1.66

WHAT TO WATCH: Air courier EAGL soared to new three-year highs on 
huge volume today breaking out over resistance at the $28.00 
level.  This looks like a bullish entry point but then again it 
could just be window dressing before the quarter ends.  A bounce 
from $28.00 might be the better entry point.  Watch out though 
the P&F chart only points to a $30 target. That doesn't mean it 
can't run past $30 but it is a caution flag.




---

Tyco Intl - TYC - close: 29.90 change: +0.24

WHAT TO WATCH: If you prefer more liquid stocks then TYC might be 
a candidate for you.  The stock is testing support near $29.50 
and its simple 200-dma.  A breakdown under $29.50 and traders 
might try for a drop toward $27.00.  A bounce back over $30.50 
and traders might try for $32.00.  The P&F chart is very bullish 
with a $54 target but it's showing a high-pole warning, which 
suggests a possible bearish reversal. 






===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Bounce of Speed bump?
- J. Brown

Yesterday the markets were looking pretty sour.  The Dow 
Industrials closed under the 10,000 mark for the first time since 
August 17th while crude oil prices hit $50.00 barrel in New York 
for the first time ever.  Today stocks look a little bit stronger 
with a bounce in the indices despite another gain for crude.  

What's going on here?  Are investors totally disconnected from 
reality?  Oil is 10 cents away from $50 a barrel and crude barely 
budged when the Saudis said they would raise production from 9.5 
million to 11.0 million barrels a day.  The oil pits were focused 
on new violence in Nigeria, the world's seventh largest exporter 
of oil and known for its light sweet crude which is more easily 
refined.  Rebels in Nigeria have specifically targeted oil rigs 
and oil companies as they fight government forces. 

If $50 oil wasn't enough the consumer confidence numbers this 
morning declined for the second month in a row.  While the drop 
wasn't huge it's not a positive trend.  Yet despite it all stocks 
bounced higher with only homebuilders, semiconductors and 
networking stocks trading lower.  What's going on here?  

I think it is just window dressing before the end of the quarter.  
Fund managers saw the Dow under 10,000 and decided to "buy the 
dip" before the quarter ends on Thursday.  A positive revenue 
warning from Dow-component Caterpillar (CAT) certainly didn't 
hurt stocks either.  Throughout the day there was also talk of 
short covering after the Industrials 300-point decline in the 
last several days.  Given the bounce back above 10,000 for the 
Dow, the bounce from the simple 50-dma and the 1850 level on the 
NASDAQ and the 1100 level on the S&P 500 I could certainly see 
stock churn sideways for the remainder of the month.

That is unless the earnings warnings don't pick up.  We had at 
least four more earnings warnings today from DJO, SNA, STE and 
CY.  Cypress Semiconductor (CY) actually warned for the second 
time this quarter.  

What is really interesting was the big drops in the volatility 
indices today.  Both the VIX and VXO fell back under the 14 level 
towards their recent lows.  This remains a big bearish flag and 
I'd be mindful to double check those stops on any bullish plays.

So the question to ask is this bounce a turnaround or a speed 
bump on the way down?  I'm still bullish for the fourth quarter 
but the next two or three weeks can be painful.  Although I will 
admit that this September has been pretty mild for the "worst" 
month of the year. 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10077

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10147
 50-dma: 10108 
200-dma: 10296



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1110

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1116
 50-dma: 1101
200-dma: 1117



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1389

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1410
 50-dma: 1380
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.83 -0.79
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.23 -1.07
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.36 -0.56


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.91        689,020       630,321
Equity Only    0.85        520,063       442,490
OEX            0.88         23,050        20,327
QQQ            1.51         40,339        60,887


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63.2    + 0.2   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    43.0    - 1     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       60.8    - 0.4   Bear Correction
S&P 100       59.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.46
10-dma: 1.25
21-dma: 1.16
55-dma: 1.20


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1915      1869
Decliners     899      1142

New Highs     181        54
New Lows       40        61

Up Volume   1164M      797M
Down Vol.    542M      700M

Total Vol.  1725M     1520M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/21/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The latest COT data shows a big drop in positions for both 
commercials and small traders but commercials remain slightly
net bearish and small traders remain net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)
09/07/04      415,952   426,342   (10,390)   (1.2%)
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%
09/07/04      157,732   130,817    26,915     9.3%
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The passing of the quadruple-witching Friday cut a large
chunk of open positions among long and shorts, big and small.
Yet the remain positions still open have sent commercials to 
their most bearish bias in weeks and the small trader to their
most bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)
09/07/04      371,111   600,593   (229,482)  (23.6%)
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%
09/07/04      286,194     80,075   206,119    56.2%
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Wow!  It looks like last week's option expiration has 
produced some major shifts.  There is a huge drop in open
positions that have produced dramatic changes in bias. 
Commercials are now strongly bullish and small traders are
incredibly bearish.  To be honest I'm not sure how much
I trust these numbers. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%
09/07/04       51,814     44,179     7,635    7.9%
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%
09/07/04       16,817    12,561     4,256    14.5%
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The Dow Jones futures show the same dramatic drop in open
positions with the recent option/futures expiration.  However,
the DJ futures do not show a big switch in bias.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%
09/07/04       29,128    24,011    5,117       9.6%
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)
09/07/04        5,041     8,656   (3,615)   (26.4%)
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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Copyright ) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 09-28-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:  UCL, ETM

Stop Loss Adjustments:  UCL, ETM

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bearish Plays: -- SMRT

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       NFB

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

UCL - non-tech long -
  Heads up!  UCL is soaring with the rising price of oil and 
  strength in energy stocks.  UCL added another 3 percent
  today and is nearing the bottom edge of our $44-45 price
  target.  Short-term traders can prepare to exit at $44.00.
  We are raising our stop loss to $41.75
 
 
ETM - non-tech short -
  Almost there.  Be prepared to exit at $32.00.  Or more
  patient traders can keep the play open and merely adjust the 
  stop loss lower as ETM declines. Who knows maybe ETM can
  hit the $30 level.



============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Stein Mart - SMRT - close: 15.55 change: +1.11 stop: 15.51     

We seriously doubt that today's news announcements that SMRT 
closed a few stores during the last hurricane in Florida had 
anything to do with the 7.6 percent rally on big volume.  No, 
instead this looks like short covering and/or buying the dip to 
$14.00.  We had grown cautious over the last few days and 
tightened our stop loss to $15.51.  Now more than ever we're 
beginning to think this may be a short-term bottom, especially 
with the new buy signal on its MACD indicator.

Picked on September 15 at $14.93 
Gain since picked:        + 0.62
Earnings Date           08/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        384 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

NFB declares 3-for-2 stock split

This afternoon just before 1:00 PM ET the North Fork Bancorp Inc 
(NYSE:NFB) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-
for-2 stock split of its common stock and a 10% increase in its 
cash dividend.

The cash dividend of 33 cents per share will be paid on a pre-
split basis.  Both the cash dividend and the stock split will be 
paid on November 15th, 2004 to shareholders of record on October 
29th.  The merger with GreenPoint will close on October 1st so 
GreenPoint investors will also take part in the two dividends.


About the company:
North Fork Bancorporation, Inc. is merging/acquiring GreenPoint 
Financial Corp and together the combined companies will have total 
assets of approximately $56 billion and will rank among the top 20 
bank holding companies in the country. 
(source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WB      Wachovia Corp              47.12     +0.78
COP     Conoco Phillips            83.21     +2.15
HD      Home Depot Inc             38.83     +0.52
XOM     ExxonMobil                 48.53     +0.57
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          57.10     +0.57
MO      Altria Group               46.23     +1.08

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

BLDP    Ballard Power               7.90     +1.68
NABI    NABI Biopharma             13.48     +1.79
JLG     JLG Industries             17.29     +1.19
OS      Oregon Steel Mills         16.81     +1.12
ADBL    Audible Inc                17.83     +1.24
DRTK    GTS Duratek Inc            17.42     +1.17

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
NEM     Newmont Mining             44.29     +1.69
SU      Suncor Energy              32.56     +1.50
CNQ     Canadian Natural Resources 39.80     +1.80
UCL     Unocal Corp                43.39     +1.27
RIG     Transocean Inc             36.19     +1.10
ROH     Rohm & Haas Co             42.24     +1.21
PD      Phelps Dodge               93.60     +4.26

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MERQ    Mercury Interactive        32.36     -1.48
FMD     First Marblehead           44.96     -2.04
SNA     Snap-On Inc                27.83     -3.85
TSCO    Tractor Supply Co          34.52     -1.59
HYSL    Hyperion Solutions         31.93     -1.15
SBTV    SBS Broadcasting           32.71     -1.32
CBM     Cambrex Corp               21.25     -1.05
KNSY    Kensey Nash                26.36     -2.22
NMHC    Ntl Medical Hlth Card Sys  20.67     -1.79

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DVN     Devon Energy               72.16     -1.71
NIHD    NII Holdings               40.55     -1.72
NCEN    New Century Holdings       60.30     -1.39
IMH     Impac Mortgage Holdings    26.03     -1.27
TZOO    Travelzoo Inc              56.42     -14.62
KBAY    Kanbay Intl                21.09     -1.15
UIC     United Industrial Corp     31.83     -1.57

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