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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 09/30/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-30-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Great Debate
Watch List:        Airlines to REITs
Market Sentiment:  Three Things

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-30-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10080.27 - 56.00 10142.94 10038.90 2.16 bln 1917/1289
NASDAQ   1896.84 +  2.90  1902.25  1887.68 1.67 bln 1766/1347
S&P 100   534.86 -  1.70   537.20   533.10   Totals 3683/2636
S&P 500  1114.58 -  0.22  1116.31  1109.61 
W5000   10895.48 +  9.59 10913.66 10845.90
SOX       384.20 +  3.60   389.69   380.62
RUS 2000  572.94 +  1.87   574.71   569.33
DJ TRANS 3243.51 +  3.90  3249.20  3220.73
VIX        13.34 +  0.13    13.67    13.20
VXO (VIX-O)13.44 +  0.63    13.68    13.10
VXN        20.48 -  0.19    20.91    20.21 
Total Volume 4,129M
Total UpVol  2,472M
Total DnVol  1,579M
Total Adv  4195
Total Dcl  2973
52wk Highs  314
52wk Lows    96
TRIN       0.92
NAZTRIN    0.86
PUT/CALL   0.86
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Great Debate
by Jim Brown

No, not the one between Bush and Kerry tonight but the 
debate over market direction over the next two weeks. 
The markets struggled to move higher over the last few
days and were it not for the end of quarter window
dressing the Dow would be under 10K instead of over
tonight. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 

What a busy day! This could turn into a novel tonight
but I will try to keep it flowing. Starting with the
flood of economic reports we continue to see a mixed
picture for the future. The Jobless Claims soared to
369,000 and the highest level since the 375K last Dec
6th. This was mostly due to the rash of hurricanes and
I mentioned this might happen last week. The states 
with the most claims were Florida, North Carolina and 
California. California always ranks near the top due
to population. Florida had 8,400 claims specifically
related to the hurricanes but probably many more were
indirectly related. This should not be a market problem
because traders are always looking for an excuse to 
ignore bad numbers. 

Personal Income rose +0.4% and inline with estimates
despite an impact from - hurricanes. Yes, the hurricane
excuse is alive and well and will probably turn up in
every economic report for the next couple quarters and  
in the earnings reports for companies. You can't take
out electricity, retail, transportation and communication
in five states impacting millions of consumers without
a serious economic ripple. Fortunately that ripple will
turn into a wave in Q1 as rebuilding and refurnishing
efforts in Q4 are felt through the various supply chains. 
Auto sales to replace all the flooded vehicles, building
materials, furniture, appliances, clothes, bedding etc,
anything not taken to high ground has to be replaced. 

Elsewhere the NY-NAPM showed continued growth in the
New York economy although growth was slower than in
prior months. The region has been in a strong uptrend
since August-2003 and the last index low at 221.7.
The September headline number was 310.4 and illustrates
how strong the recovery has been. The last two months
have seen slowing but definitely nothing to worry about.

The PMI jumped to 61.3 from 57.3 in August and was much
stronger than expectations at 58.5. It was also a large
gain over the 57.3 number for August. This should mean
a strong jump in the ISM on Friday which is currently
expected to be 59.0. Most impressive was the jump in
new orders to 68.7 from 58.0 however inventories also
rose over the last two months by the fastest pace in 
nearly two decades to 64.2 from 55.3. This suggests
that producers may have gotten ahead of themselves 
in anticipating the recovery and sales slowed over 
the last couple months. Fortunately the jump in new
orders this month should give them an opportunity to
balance the inventory flow.

The Help Wanted Index came in unchanged for August
at 37 and suggests there is not a serious employment
boom in progress. Internet job sites have reported an
increase in openings but they are also not seeing any
large jump in jobs. Because tomorrow is the first day
of the month we have to wait until next Friday for the
Jobs report and the current estimate is only 165,000
and right in the middle of the recent ranges. The only
comments I have heard have been negative and expecting
lower than the official estimates. After the ISM on
Friday we should start to hear more chatter about jobs.

Up, down, up, down, more gyrations than a windsock in
a thunderstorm. Of course I am talking about oil which
hit $50 on Tuesday and then declined to $48.50 on a
build in inventories and the cease fire in Nigeria. 
Well you guessed it oil traded over $50 several times
on Thursday and closed back up at $49.65. No specific
challenges were noted but prices are creeping back up
once again. T. Boone Pickens headlined the dozens of
oil analysts hitting the airwaves and his quote of $60
before $40 is the sound bite of choice. The more analysts
talk the more the real facts are coming out. Multiple
experts claim Saudi Arabia can only produce 9.3-9.5Mbpd
and their claim of 11mbpd is strictly smoke. Pickens
related the Hubbert's Peak scenario and gave it much
credence. He said the two million barrel Alaskan 
pipeline was down to only 700,000 per day and that is
the same challenge felt around the world. Existing 
wells saw decreasing production and not enough new 
wells coming on to cover demands 2-5 years from now. 
I will get off the soap box but I am putting together 
a top ten energy stocks for long term investors for 
November release so stay tuned. 

The biggest challenge for the economy is not the flurry
of hurricanes but the chance that oil will remain high.
A very good chance. The various economists are starting
to be heard about the prospects for the future and it
is not pretty. Retailers are seeing a slowing in buyer
activity not specifically in quantity but in cost. 
Talbots warned today that sales would be off due to 
the hurricane. Surprise, there is that excuse again! 
If you read the fine print they also say consumers
are becoming more budget conscious. They specifically
said their September sale had not performed well and
had not driven the historical increase in regular 
priced merchandise sales. That means consumers came
in to buy the sale merchandise and did not buy the
profitable items that were not on sale. Talbots said
same store sales could now be in negative numbers 
instead of their prior forecast for positive growth. 
This warning follows warnings by other retailers 
including the Federated chain of department stores.
With heating oil more than doubled over last year 
and still rising the amount of money available for
spending by those in the northern climate zones is
going to be significantly less. 

You can't talk about today's market without talking
about Merck. The sudden withdrawal of Vioxx from the
market cut a $2.5 billion hole in Merck profits and
shocked the drug sector. Merck took a -$25 billion 
cut to its market cap and dropped -$12.07, -26.8% to
an eight year low. MRK volume at 145 million shares
was nearly a tenth of the volume of the NYSE and we
are talking a $33 stock. This was nearly 30 times
normal volume. Funds bailed on fears there would be
legal problems due to suits similar to the Fen-Phen
recall several years ago. Other drug companies have
had similar problems in the past but the magnitude
of the potential problem is extremely large. Wyeth
has spent nearly $17 billion on the Fen-Phen recall
and only six million people took the drugs. For Vioxx
over 84 million people have taken the drug and the
potential for billions in claims is very strong. Any
person who had a cardiac event and took Vioxx will be
jumping on the litigation bandwagon even if they ate
two big Macs every day for the last ten years, smoked
and drank a quart of whiskey per day. Their lifestyle
will have nothing to do with the event, it had to be 
Vioxx that caused their heart problem. Several analysts
even questioned if Merck would be able to survive the
storm. They have taken multiple potential products out
of the pipeline over the last couple years and they
are widely seen to be lacking any wonder drug to 
rescue them from this money pit. 

Despite the nearly -90 point hit the Dow took from 
the MRK drop it rallied back to close down only -56
points. Support held at 10050 and the Dow is poised
to rally off a positive ISM tomorrow. However, there
are several roadblocks to that possibility. Before
the MRK drop window dressing had added +175 points 
since the Dow's low of 9977 on Tuesday. Today that 
window dressing effort was far less of a factor with
only a small afternoon rebound.

The Nasdaq was able to rebound back over 1900 twice
on Thursday but could not hold on either attempt. 
This is strong resistance that even a positive SOX
could not break. The SOX turned in a very strong
effort just closing in positive territory after
Micron missed earnings and multiple chip stocks have
warned this week. This was a definite symptom of
window dressing in my opinion. Funds had to put cash
into stocks to show they were intelligently investing
your money. 

This window dressing fought an uphill battle today. 
Volume was very strong on the NYSE and it was not just
related to the MRK disaster. This was the first time
the NYSE has traded over two billion shares (2.212B)
since July-21st. I believe that window dressing met
distribution today and they battled to a tie. Up volume
on the NYSE was slightly higher than declining volume
at 3:2 but there was no conviction among the stocks
that saw any gains. The market felt heavy all day
and the closing spurt could not correct it. 

The market is facing several challenges. First is the
Bush-Kerry debate tonight. The market has priced in a
Bush victory and the debate will be watched for signs
of a change in that status. If Kerry pulls a rabbit
out of his hat and scores major points or if Bush gets
foot in mouth disease then the fragile lead could 
dissolve in an instant. The market would be quick to
remove any Bush premium and that could be painful. 
Gail Dudak said she felt the a Kerry win would subtract
-1000 points from the Dow. That number may be high but
you get the point. Conversely should Bush win the
debate in a convincing manner then the market "could"
celebrate some more. 

Secondly the end of quarter window dressing is over.
As much as the bulls would like to see it continue
for another week the quarter is behind us and October
looms large. Earnings warnings are the story and it
is rare that a company gives positive guidance. In
short we are entering a typical October with conditions
about as bad as possible. Oil at $50, hurricanes, 
election fears, terrorist fears, earnings less than 
half the prior quarter and projected to be only +7% 
for all of 2005. While I think this will resolve itself
quickly there is strong risk for the bulls. Historically
we should see a ramp into the election as long as there 
is a clear leader. October is also year end for many
mutual funds and portfolios are reshuffled faster than
a blackjack deck in Vegas and that normally leads to 
substantial volatility. Remember the VXO hit a new
eight year low on Wednesday so the volatility bomb
is ticking. 

For Friday we have the next major economic hurdle the
ISM Index. A positive report there could go a long 
way towards warding off the October bears. Vehicle 
data for September is also due but nobody expects
cars to be rolling off showroom floors in any large
numbers. 

The quarter that ended today was dismal for the markets
with the Dow losing -3.0%, S&P -2.4%, Nasdaq -7.5% and
the chip sector -25%. This swoon has put us right back
where we started the year near 1112 on the S&P. Nine
months of trading to end flat just before the election.
In fact this has been called the tightest trading range
since 1994. It was the worst quarter for the Dow since
Q1-2003 and the worst for the Nasdaq since 2002. It
has been called the most confusing election year market
in the last 100 years. That may be a little before my
time but if you are like me you have probably found 
the last several months very hard to trade. Fellow
traders this is about to come to an end. October is
normally very volatile but it is known as the bear 
killer month because the dips are normally bought and
bull markets emerge. I don't know about you but I am
counting on it. 

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Ryanair Holdings - RYAAY - close: 29.20 change: -0.77

WHAT TO WATCH: Entry point alert!  RYAAY has broken down under 
support in the $29.50-30.00 range to hit new lows.  This looks 
like an entry point to short the stock and target a drop toward 
$25.00, although we suspect the $27.50 level will offer some 
support.  The P&F chart is very bearish with a $7.00 price 
target.




---

VeriSign Inc - VRSN - close: 19.88 change: +0.06

WHAT TO WATCH: Volume has been pretty strong the last two 
sessions for VRSN but the stock is still struggling with round-
number, psychological resistance at the $20.00 mark.  Readers can 
watch for a breakout and then consider bullish positions.  The 
P&F chart looks pretty bullish with a $28.00 target. 




---

Compuware Corp - CPWR - close: 5.15 change: +0.22

WHAT TO WATCH: CPWR appears to have built a nice rounded bottom 
of saucer-shaped bottom between $4.40 and $5.20.  Today's 
breakout over the $5.00 is impressive but a move over $5.25 would 
look like an aggressive entry point for longs.  Watch out for 
resistance at the bottom of the gap down in July near $5.50 
though.  That could be a tough spot for bulls to push through.




---

SL Green Realty - SLG - close: 51.81 change: +1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Sometimes it's slow and steady that wins the race 
and SLG looks like a decent candidate.  Shares have been slowly 
grinding higher and are currently near new all-time highs.  We 
like its relative strength but you definitely need patience if 
you're not the buy and hold type.  Dividend investors will note 
that SLG currently offers a 3.95 percent yield.  





===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Three Things
- J. Brown

Stocks say good-bye to a painful third quarter but in reality the 
month of September was pretty mild for the historically "worst" 
month of the year.  Right now there are three things on the minds 
of investors.  First is the presidential debate tonight.  
Currently stocks are poised to march higher if President Bush 
puts in a good performance tonight.  He is currently in the lead 
across most of the nation's polls and Wall Street likes the 
incumbent to win no matter what his affiliation.  Investors big 
and small alike will spend the next month focusing on the 
November 2nd election and who will lead us for the next four 
years. 

The second major issue on investors' minds is crude oil.  Crude 
remains near $50 a barrel.  In the last week there's even been 
talk of oil at $60 a barrel.  Fortunately most expect crude to 
slip lower but the $40 level is expected to be the new bottom at 
least for the foreseeable future.  

The third issue influencing investor sentiment will be corporate 
earnings.  We've had a ton of warnings in the past month and the 
third quarter earnings season will begin in days.  Wall Street 
has already discounted a disappointing third quarter and 
everything will depend on guidance for the fourth quarter.  
Traditionally the fourth quarter is one of the strongest given 
the end of year holiday season so expectations may be too high.    

Tomorrow is a big day for economic activity.  The markets will 
digest the ISM manufacturing index, the Michigan sentiment index, 
the construction spending numbers, auto and truck sales and the 
G7 group of finance ministers meet.  Not to mention a couple of 
fed governors will be speaking on banking tomorrow.  


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10080

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10120
 50-dma: 10109 
200-dma: 10297



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1114

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1115
 50-dma: 1101
200-dma: 1118



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1412

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1409
 50-dma: 1380
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.34 +0.13
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.44 +0.63
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.48 -0.19


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.86        688,608       594,500
Equity Only    0.73        590,577       433,987
OEX            0.95         13,760        13,042
QQQ            0.92         31,831        29,300


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          63.9    + 0.5   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    43.0    + 0     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   53.3    - 3     Bear Correction
S&P 500       61.2    + 0.4   Bear Correction
S&P 100       60.0    + 1     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.16
10-dma: 1.10
21-dma: 1.03
55-dma: 1.18


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1740      1682
Decliners    1065      1322

New Highs     182        97
New Lows       21        29

Up Volume   1305M      968M
Down Vol.    856M      656M

Total Vol.  2191M     1658M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/21/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The latest COT data shows a big drop in positions for both 
commercials and small traders but commercials remain slightly
net bearish and small traders remain net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)
09/07/04      415,952   426,342   (10,390)   (1.2%)
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%
09/07/04      157,732   130,817    26,915     9.3%
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The passing of the quadruple-witching Friday cut a large
chunk of open positions among long and shorts, big and small.
Yet the remain positions still open have sent commercials to 
their most bearish bias in weeks and the small trader to their
most bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)
09/07/04      371,111   600,593   (229,482)  (23.6%)
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%
09/07/04      286,194     80,075   206,119    56.2%
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Wow!  It looks like last week's option expiration has 
produced some major shifts.  There is a huge drop in open
positions that have produced dramatic changes in bias. 
Commercials are now strongly bullish and small traders are
incredibly bearish.  To be honest I'm not sure how much
I trust these numbers. 


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%
09/07/04       51,814     44,179     7,635    7.9%
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%
09/07/04       16,817    12,561     4,256    14.5%
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The Dow Jones futures show the same dramatic drop in open
positions with the recent option/futures expiration.  However,
the DJ futures do not show a big switch in bias.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%
09/07/04       29,128    24,011    5,117       9.6%
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)
09/07/04        5,041     8,656   (3,615)   (26.4%)
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-30-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  ARB, SPN      

Stock Splits
  Announcements:  None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

ARB - tech stock short -
  Uh-oh!  Danger!  ARB has put together two back to back days
  of gains on strong volume.   Make sure you're comfortable with
  your stop loss.
 
 
SPN - non-tech long -
  Heads up!  SPN is up six days in a row.  Short-term traders may
  actually want to consider taking some profits off the table.  
  We are going to raise our stop loss to $11.99.   We're still aiming
  for a $13.50-14.00 target but some of this week's gains could be
  window dressing and thus tomorrow we may expect some profit
  taking.
 

==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

COP     ConocoPhillips             82.85     +1.28
MO      Altria Group               47.04     +0.52
HBC     HSBC Holdings              79.80     +0.63
UTX     United Technologies        93.38     +0.63
OXY     Occidental Petroleum       55.98     +0.53
GM      General Motors             42.48     +1.38

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

SWC     Stillwater Mining Co       15.50     +1.33
OLN     Olin Corp                  20.00     +1.22
AGYS    Agilsys Inc                17.29     +1.09
ADBL    Audible Inc                17.93     +1.10
NIKU    Niku Corp                  15.20     +1.27
HURC    Hurco Companies            13.39     +2.52

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
RTN     Raytheon Co                37.98     +1.21
GD      General Dynamics          102.10     +1.97
MAR     Marriott Intl Inc          51.96     +1.51
BSC     Bear Stearns               96.17     +3.81
MGG     MGM Mirage                 49.65     +1.35
COL     Rockwell Collins           37.14     +1.31
AVY     Avery Dennison             65.78     +1.07

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MRK     Merck & Co                 33.00     -12.07
LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             60.05     -1.80
FNM     Fannie Mae                 63.40     -2.85
AGN     Allergan Inc               72.55     -2.18
ANN     Ann Taylor Stores          23.40     -1.18
PDX     Pediatrix Medical          54.85     -3.16
MATK    Martek Biosciences         48.64     -2.48
TLB     Talbots Inc                24.79     -2.51
FDP     Fresh Del Monte Produce    24.91     -1.75

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

CVS     CVS Corp                   42.13     -0.23
PPP     Pogo Producing             47.45     -0.44


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