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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-10-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Tension Building
Market Sentiment: On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!     
Watch List: Somewhat of a Mixed Bag Before Earnings          

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 10-08        WE 10-01         WE 9-24         WE 9-17 
DOW    10055.20 -137.45 10192.6 +145.41 10047.2 -237.22 - 28.61 
Nasdaq  1919.97 - 22.23 1942.20 + 62.72 1879.48 - 30.61 + 15.78 
S&P-100  538.47 -  4.64  543.11 +  8.74  534.37 - 11.43 +  2.45 
S&P-500 1122.14 -  9.36 1131.50 + 21.39 1110.11 - 18.47 +  4.66 
W5000  10964.52 - 94.18 11058.7 +220.40 10838.3 -155.02 + 57.00 
SOX      389.52 - 12.39  401.91 + 19.36  382.55 -  5.95 +  4.89 
RUT      575.65 -  9.38  585.03 + 19.06  565.97 -  7.20 +  3.26 
TRAN    3336.00 + 37.20 3298.80 + 96.69 3202.11 - 55.28 + 24.00 
VXO       14.95           12.55           14.14           13.55 
VXN       20.69           18.91           21.10           20.13 
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Tension Building
by Jim Brown

Last Sunday the bulls were charging out of the gate with
massive back to back buy programs that lifted the Dow +200
points from the Thursday lows. Traders were talking about
breaking overhead resistance and worries about an October
dip were discounted as fading dreams promoted by hopeful
bears. Amazing how a couple of negative days can quickly
bring that October tension back for the bulls. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 


It all began with Thursday's drug overdose and the Dow
drop at the open. Bulls were suddenly looking at red
everywhere and the Nasdaq seven day winning streak was
in jeopardy of being stopped cold. Oil hit $53 and the
Nigerian strike was back on again. Cautious comments
about the coming Jobs report and worries about GE 
earnings begin to push the market losses deeper into 
the red. No worry, jobs will rescue us and the bears 
will be sent off to an early hibernation. Bulls woke 
Friday morning to a worse than expected Jobs report 
and oil over $53 and suddenly that glimmer of light 
at the end of the October tunnel became an onrushing
train. Worried yet?

The only material economic report on Friday was the 
Jobs report and it was not pretty. Only 96,000 jobs 
were created in September and far below the consensus
estimate of 160,000. Worse yet the October revisions 
which were expected to be +288,000, according to 
administration leaks, fell to only +236,000. Last 
months +144K number was revised to only $128,000. In
short there was no good news, at least not the kind 
of good news the president was expecting as he heads
into the second debate on Friday night. 

The labor market grew progressively tighter with total
jobs created in Q3 at 309,000 much less than the 628,000
from Q2. The BLS acknowledged that the hurricanes impacted
the numbers but only to a minor amount as Ivan hit after
the survey week for September. They admit there could be
a lingering impact from Frances and Charley but again 
it was seen to be only minor. This report created more 
questions than answers and the economic indications are
for weaker job growth ahead. The conflicting reports 
from the ISM, various regional reports, Manpower and 
Monster Indexes all suggested hiring was increasing but
they do not indicate the number of positions. They only
measure ads and number of companies hiring. 

After Friday's report analysts were left with the feeling
of inherent job weakness coming back to haunt the recovery.
The country needs to create 150,000 jobs per month just
to cover the number of new workers entering the workplace.
The spring months of Mar-May saw a bounce to +295,000 per
month on average and analysts were projecting a strong
continued economic rebound. Over the last four months
that average has dropped to barely over +100,000 per
month on average and less than breakeven rates. 

This suggests the economy may be transitioning into
a weaker pace of growth and may give us a clue why 
Bernanke broke from the Fed mantra this week. He said
in his Thursday speech that "if the economic data paused
then the Fed rate hikes would pause." Because this was
different from the current Fed policy analysts quickly
thought it might be an indication the Jobs numbers may
not be as strong as expected. Whether the Bernanke 
comment was scripted or just coincidental we will never
know but the data definitely paused. This will increase
speculation about the Fed position for the Nov-10th 
meeting. 

The unemployment rate remained at 5.4% not because more
workers found jobs but because more workers dropped out
of the workforce in frustration. In September 221,000
workers dropped out following -152,000 in August. In
a related survey -201,000 dropped out of the household
workforce in September. Those three numbers alone show
twice as many workers dropped out of the picture than
actually found jobs over the last two months. 

With the second debate on Friday night Bush was saddled
with a new handicap before the cameras even began rolling.
With the race a dead heat and Kerry poised to hammer him
on the economy just like he hammered him on Iraq last 
week the outlook does not look good. They say the market
does not care who is president only that the election
is over. That may not be exactly true. Over the last
26 incumbent elections sixteen were won by the incumbent.
Of those sixteen times the market rose the year after
the election fifteen times. For the ten times the win
went to the challenger the market fell nine times. I
am sure there are valid reasons for the extremely 
lopsided results but it clearly shows that the market
normally goes higher when the incumbent wins and dives
when the challenger wins. This trend will not be lost
on fund managers. 

This makes the debate on Friday even more critical with
the contestants running neck and neck. The statistics
show this to be the slowest recovery cycle in over 50
years and the economic tension is building. 

There are positive signs on several fronts. On Friday
the CEO of IBM tried to paint a positive picture for
techs. He predicted capital spending would increase 
in 2005 from the +6% to +7% growth they were seeing 
for 2004. Reporters were unable to ask him for his 
specifics as to why his numbers were higher than
consensus estimates of +4% to +5% for 2004. GE CEO
Jeffery Immelt said the economy continues to be very
strong and he is projecting growth for GE of +10% to 
+15% for 2005. Eight of GE's eleven divisions posted
double digit growth in Q3. Several of those divisions
grew at more than +20% for the quarter. GE raised 
estimates for the full year to the high end of their
range. 

All is not as bleak as the Jobs numbers would suggest.
The last week of earnings warning season was not as 
bad as expected and the earnings flood will begin next
week. The earnings debate is heating up with the S&P
Q3 estimates at +12.3% as of Friday and the Reuters
estimates of +15.5% to +16.5%. 

The key earnings to look for next week will begin with
INTC on Tuesday. Intel lowered estimates for the quarter
and they are not expected to miss the lowered estimates.
The key will be their guidance for Q4 business and their
progress on the inventory issue. AMD expected stronger
Q4 sales so Intel will be expected to say the same or
suffer the consequences. 

JNJ will report on Tuesday and after the CL and UN 
warnings the consumer products companies have been
under pressure. Add in the pressure on drug companies
and JNJ will be watched from all directions. On Friday
JNJ changed the warning label on its arthritis drug
Remicade to show increased rates of lymphoma. This
again pressured Pfizer as the current king of the 
hill but they adamantly insist Celebrex has no 
problems. 

Yahoo also reports on Tuesday and results will impact
Google as their key rival. With GOOG still on a vertical
ramp any negative comments in Yahoo's report is sure to
bring back the shorts. Of course you have to decide if
positive comments from Yahoo are negative for Google or
negative comments positive for Google. Is there room
enough for both to prosper?

Merrill reports on Tuesday and analysts are split on
their chances of a miss or a beat. The summer volume
slow down should have impacted trading volume but gains
from internal trading and cost cutting could help. GS
and Lehman surprised to the upside and Morgan Stanley
surprised to the downside so Merrill's results are up
for grabs. 

Another factor that will continue to haunt us is oil
prices. Oil closed at $53.31 on Friday on news that 
Nigerian workers will go on strike again on Monday. 
Depending on how much oil slows from Nigeria the price
will continue to rise. Current resistance is projected
to be $54 but the $60 whisper target continues to gain
respectability and it may turn into a self fulfilling
prophecy.  

For the week the Dow spent three days lingering in the
10200 range with one brief spike to 10270. However, by
Friday's close the Dow had erased all of its gains 
since the last Friday buy program and it is right back
at 10050 and the support from late September. There is
no harm in the pullback because the sprint higher was
artificial to begin with. Three massive asset allocation
programs over two days ran stops to the upside and forced
shorts to cover. For two days we wandered sideways while
the market looked for direction and then a sequence of
events brought us back to earth and to September support.

The Nasdaq held its gains much better than the Dow 
because of the different weighting for individual stocks
impacts the Dow more dramatically. The Nasdaq has been
supported by the SOX since the September lows and despite
the Friday swoon the SOX is still moving higher. This
will continue to support the Nasdaq until Intel reports
earnings on Tuesday. After that report all bets are 
off and we will have a new market. 

I said above that this weeks pulling back to support
was nothing to worry about. That is true as long as 
the Dow remains above 10,000 and the SPX above 1110. 
Actually 1120 is current support equating to 10050 on
the Dow but 10000/1110 is the key. The Nasdaq is well
above the equivalent Dow/SPX support and could stand
to give up another -30 points to 1890 before making a
critical break. 

Volume slowed on Thursday and Friday compared to the
4B+ days during the rally. Unfortunately most of that
volume was to the downside with a 4:1 ratio on Friday.
I view the pullback, regardless of reason, as a bout
of profit taking and positioning ahead of next weeks
earnings. Funds were handed a gift as we moved into
October and that bounce worked to the bulls advantage
and allowed those sellers that wanted out a higher 
level for their exit. There was no damage to the 
markets and we are entering the first real week of 
earnings with no real bias. We could just as easily 
go up or down and Friday's close although negative 
for the week was perfectly neutral. 

Monday has no economic reports and it is also a bank
holiday. The bond market is closed and will not be 
impacting our trading. The Nikkei is also closed and
will not be an influence on our markets. This sets 
up Monday as a low volume day while traders pass 
time waiting for the real earnings flood to begin on
Tuesday. Only seven companies report on Monday with 
several hundred reporting over the next three days.
Bottom line Monday is a setup day and a tossup for 
everyone. Once the earnings parade begins we could 
see some serious volatility but without a serious 
earnings miss by somebody that volatility could just
be churning. Expectations are low and there is a good
chance we could see some upside surprises.

One last piece of election trivia. Bush supporters
should be buying all the stocks they can afford to 
push the markets higher. Kerry supporters should be
taking every opportunity to short the market. The
incumbent party has never lost the presidency when
the Dow gains +3.3% or more in October according to
the Stock Traders Almanac. However, if the Dow loses
more than -0.5% in October the incumbent has never
won. Since 1901 there were 17 elections where the
Dow posted gains but did not reach the +3.3% level.
Of those 17 elections the incumbent lost only four
times. Conversely in the eight elections where the
Dow ended lower but with less than a -0.5% drop the
incumbents won only twice. Clearly there is a tie
between the elections and the markets and a positive
market favors the incumbent. Or to put it a different
way, the market is reacting in advance to the perceived
results of the election. The market does not depend on
the election but is an uncanny predictor of the outcome
based on the perceived ramifications to investors from  
the victorious candidate. The Dow closed September at
10078 and closed Friday at 10055, a statistical dead
heat. Before the Friday night debate the various
presidential surveys had the race at 45% Bush 46%
Kerry with those numbers exactly reversed in another 
major survey. A statistical dead heat. The market is
tracking exactly 10 days into October. Need I say more?  

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!
- J. Brown

Investor sentiment has taken a turn for the worst over the past 
couple of days.  Major indices turned lower Thursday and Friday 
and market internals were pretty negative.  Down volume was two 
to three times up volume the past couple of sessions.  Some 
believe this is just profit taking ahead of the Q3 earnings 
season with the Industrials under resistance.  It may be true.  

Fueling this bearish attitude in stocks was yet another new all-
time high in crude oil and a very disappointing jobs number.  
Crude oil closed over $53 a barrel with its fourth record gain in 
a row.  Meanwhile the September jobs number was a huge 
disappointment coming in well below estimates.  Everyone knew 
that the September job report was a wild card because of the 
hurricane impact so many economists were focusing on the August 
and July revisions.  Unfortunately, those were mixed with July's 
jobs numbers revised higher but the August numbers revised lower.  

On a technical note, check out the COT data below.  The small 
traders are really ramping up their short positions on the tech-
heavy NDX.  In contrast the commercials aren't moving from their 
bullish bias.  Traditionally the commercial traders tend to be on 
the right side of the trade so this is a contrarian indicator 
suggesting future strength for the NASDAQ 100. 

All right, Q3 earnings season is here!  Are you ready?  AA and GE 
started the season this past week.  GE reported on Friday with 
profits coming inline with estimates.  Yet management guided 
their Q4 numbers to the higher end of their previous guidance. 
That's pretty bullish coming from one of the world's largest and 
most diversified companies.  

Next week will be all about earnings, at least until the second 
half of the week.  The third and final presidential debate will 
take place on Wednesday night, which will leave voters less than 
three weeks to make up their minds before the election.  Thursday 
and Friday offer a number of economic reports but the big ones to 
watch are the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Retail sales 
numbers on Friday.  

Keep an eye on these big caps and how their earnings influence 
market direction and investor sentiment.  Intel, Johnson & 
Johnson and Yahoo all report on Tuesday.  Bank of American, 
Citigroup and General Motors all report on Thursday. 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10055

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10128
 50-dma: 10123 
200-dma: 10296



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1122

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1123
 50-dma: 1106
200-dma: 1119



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1430

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1433
 50-dma: 1389
200-dma: 1441


-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.05 +0.55
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.95 +0.39
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.69 +0.10


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.01        728,114       734,805
Equity Only    0.82        554,096       456,695
OEX            1.29         37,060        47,960
QQQ            1.39         81,896       114,436


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          66.0    + 0     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    - 2     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       64.2    - 1     Bear Correction
S&P 100       62.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.11
10-dma: 1.03
21-dma: 1.04
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1245       906
Decliners    1547      2053

New Highs     128        61
New Lows       31        52

Up Volume    419M      266M
Down Vol.   1135M     1379M

Total Vol.  1586M     1658M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/05/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders aren't making any big bets ahead of the Q3
earnings season.  Longs and shorts have moved closer to parity
and the bearish sentiment is at it lowest level in four weeks.
Small traders are upping both their longs and their shorts but
their bullish bias is waning a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)
09/28/04      404,773   434,441   (29,668)   (3.5%)
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%
09/28/04      135,317   107,173    28,144    11.6%
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have upped their positions in both longs
and shorts but clearly remain net bearish.  In contrast the
small traders have raised their positions in longs and shorts
and remain staunchly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)
09/28/04      226,020   420,714   (194,694)  (30.1%)
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%
09/28/04      262,501     68,255   194,246    58.7%
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

We are not seeing a lot of movement in commercials' positions
so they remain net bullish on the NDX.  Meanwhile small traders
are raising positions in both longs and shorts but shorts saw
a big jump creating a large bearish bias by small traders.  This
is of course a bullish contrarian indicator.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%
09/28/04       55,045     32,319    22,726   26.0%
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)
09/28/04       10,078    22,917   (12,839)  (38.9%)
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Investors both big and small seem rather undecided about how
to bet on the Industrials. The gap between longs and shorts 
continue to narrow, especially between small traders where it's
a dead-even.  This is the least bullish commercials have been
in weeks while it's the least bearish small traders have been
in weeks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
09/28/04       29,714    26,877    2,837       5.0%
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)
09/28/04        5,143     5,988   (  845)   ( 7.6%)
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 32.58 change: -1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: ASKJ is looking vulnerable here.  The stock has 
spent the last few days trying to breakout over $35.00 and 
failed.  Now its short-term technicals like the RSI and 
stochastics have turned bearish and its MACD has just produced a 
new sell signal.  There is some support near the $30 mark and its 
simple 200-dma but readers should watch and wait for YHOO's 
earnings report on Tuesday night.  What YHOO has to say will 
impact the Internet sector for the rest of the week. 




---

GlaxoSmithKline - GSK - close: 42.21 change: +0.31

WHAT TO WATCH: British drug maker GSK has significantly out 
performed many of its American peers over the last several weeks 
but that strength appears to be fading.  Shares just broke its 
short-term up trend with a big-volume drop.  Consider targeting a 
move back to $39.50.  The $43.00 looks like new short-term 
resistance.




---

Intersil Corp - ISIL - close: 15.57 change: -0.73

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stock ISIL has been stuck in a 
trading range for the last few weeks.  Currently ISIL is testing 
the bottom of its trading range.  We would probably expect the 
range to hold until Tuesday.  Chip giant Intel reports earnings 
on Tuesday and will significantly impact the direction of the SOX 
index.  If you're purely a technical trader then look for a drop 
under $15.25 to short it or for a bounce over $16.00 to go long 
with a $17.50-18.00 target.




---

Tractor Supply - TSCO - close: 31.22 change: -1.12

WHAT TO WATCH: This looks like a new entry point for bearish 
positions, especially as TSCO nears new one-year lows.  Yet at 
the same time the stock is trading near the bottom of its 
descending channel so it could easily bounce.  Earnings are 
expected on Monday.  We would watch to see which way the stock 
moves on Tuesday morning after the report.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

VRTS $20.65 +0.31 - Heads up!  VRTS traded to its simple 100-dma 
on Friday and failed.  Watch to see if the $20.00 mark holds.

INTC $20.55 -0.69 - INTC is stuck in the middle of its four-week 
trading range as investors wait to here its Q3 earnings on 
Tuesday evening.

MYG $17.29 -0.28 - MYG is hitting new lows as investors exit the 
stock on fears that higher material costs will impact appliance 
makers.
 

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-10-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  MACR
  
Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMH, STN
  Bearish Play Updates:  LSCP, PSSI

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     MLNM

Stock Splits
  Announcements:         None


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Macromedia - MACR - close: 21.91 change: -0.68 stop: 20.99

This past week has been a volatile but up week for MACR.  Shares 
soared to $23.10 on Wednesday after the stock was upgraded by 
Piper Jaffray from "market perform" to an "out perform".  The 
analyst at PJ believes 2005 will be a strong year for the 
company, especially as they begin the next round of product 
upgrades and shipments.  Piper raised their earnings and revenue 
estimates for MACR.  Plus, the analyst there said shares of MACR 
tend to rise an average of 47 percent in the six months leading 
up to their major product shipments.  Currently the next shipment 
out from MACR is June 2005.  The market-wide profit taking on 
Thursday and Friday was also felt in shares of MACR with the drop 
back under the $22 level.  We remain bullish but suspect MACR 
could have immediate weakness.  Look for a bounce from $21.50 or 
$21.00 as a new entry point.  Our stop remains at $20.99.  Our 
immediate target remains the $23.50-24.00 range.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 03 at $20.85 
Gain since picked:      + 1.06
Earnings Date         10/27/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      867 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


AmerUs Group - AMH - close: 41.32 change: -0.51 stop: 39.99

Yuck!  It's been a tough week for AMH with the stock falling back 
through support/resistance at $42.00.  That's probably because 
it's been a tough week for the IUX Insurance index.  The IUX has 
been down three out of the last four days.  Fortunately, AMH's 
bullish P&F chart hasn't changed and remains strong with a 
triple-top breakout buy signal.  We are still bullish on AMH but 
traders have a decision to make.  Do you buy a bounce from $41.00 
or do you consider waiting for AMH to rebound back above the 
$42.00 level before initiating new positions.  Right now, given 
the current market environment, we would suggest the latter 
strategy.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 01 at $42.55 
Gain since picked:      - 1.23
Earnings Date         11/02/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      222 thousand



---


Station Casinos - STN - close: 48.90 change: -0.30 stop: 48.49

It has been a very disappointing week for STN.  Monday started 
off on the wrong foot with a complete reversal of Friday's 
bullish breakout over resistance at $50.00.  Since that time STN 
has slowly consolidated sideways with a minor trend of lower 
highs.  This is bearish yet the stock did not really see much of 
a sell-off on Thursday and Friday this week when the major 
indices were turning lower.  That could be bullish.  Currently we 
are UN-TRIGGERED.  When we added this play our entry was to be a 
breakout over $51.00. At this time we're just spectators.  
However, if STN breaks down under $48.00 we may end up closing 
this play unopened.  Keep in mind that we don't have much time 
left before STN's earnings report, which we do not plan to hold 
over.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      469 thousand


 

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

LaserScope - LSCP - close: 19.69 change: -0.78 stop: 21.49 *new*

My, my how the tables have turned.  LSCP was looking ready to 
breakout over the $21.00 level and its exponential 200-dma on 
Wednesday.  Now the rally has failed and shares have broken back 
under the $20.00 mark.  This looks like a new bearish entry point 
but more conservative traders may want to wait for LSCP to drop 
under $19.50 as a little confirmation.  The P&F chart remains 
very bearish but the next test is minor support at $19.00.  We're 
going to lower our stop loss to $21.49.  Our target remains 
$17.50.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 22 at $19.85 
Gain since picked:        - 0.16
Earnings Date           07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        477 thousand



---


PSS World Medical - PSSI - cls:  9.82 chg: -0.09 stop: 10.51     

It has been a very volatile week for PSSI.  The excitement really 
started on Tuesday when Chiron announced it would not be sending 
the expected 50 million doses of the flu vaccine this year.  That 
sent all of CHIR's flu distributors lower.  Despite the fact that 
not shipping the 6 million doses from CHIR and the 4-cent per 
share impact on earnings, PSSI still says it will meet 
expectations of 51 to 55 cents per share.  This sent the stock 
back up on Wednesday but shares couldn't break out over 
resistance near $10.25.  Now over the last couple of sessions 
PSSI has started to fade again. We remain bearish but cautious.  
As an example of our caution we're going to lower our stop loss 
to $10.11.  If PSSI rebounds again we'll probably be stopped out 
but at least we can recover enough to pay our broker's 
commissions. PSSI is currently down about 5.9 percent from our 
entry point.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on September 20 at $10.44
Gain since picked:        - 0.62
Earnings Date           07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        734 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Millenium Pharma - MLNM - cls: 12.22 chg: -0.37 stop: 12.81

Company Description:
Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a leading biopharmaceutical 
company based in Cambridge, Mass., markets VELCADE® (bortezomib) 
for Injection, a novel cancer product, co-promotes INTEGRILIN® 
(eptifibatide) Injection, a market-leading cardiovascular 
product, and has a robust clinical development pipeline of 
product candidates. The Company's research, development and 
commercialization activities are focused in three therapeutic 
areas: oncology, cardiovascular, and inflammation. By applying 
its knowledge of the human genome, its understanding of disease 
mechanisms, and its industrialized drug discovery platform, the 
Company is seeking to develop breakthrough products.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Over the last two years shares of MLNM have churned mostly 
sideways between $10 and $20 per share.  Yet the last nine months 
have a very bearish trend to them with a clear pattern of lower 
highs.  The most recent rebound from the August lows failed near 
$14.00 and its exponential 200-dma.  This happened to coincide 
with the top in the BTK index.  A few days earlier Forbes.com 
noted that S&P had upgraded MLNM to a "buy" suggesting the stock 
was under valued.  It would appear that investors have forgotten 
such positive comments.  MLNM now has a short-term trend of lower 
highs to match its longer-term trend.  The stock has fallen 
through technical support at the 40-dma and the 100-dma as well 
as the $12.50 mark, which was resistance, now support, back in 
early September.  Despite it all we do not feel comfortable 
opening shorts in MLNM at current levels.  It's always dangerous 
to short a biotech stock.  One never knows when the company will 
announce a major cure for a disease that could send shares 
soaring.  However, given the trend we are willing to speculate 
that MLNM could retest the $10.00 level but we're going to use a 
TRIGGER at $11.99.  This would require MLNM to breakdown under 
its simple 50-dma and the $12.00 level.  If we are triggered 
we'll target $10.00 with a $12.81 stop.  Point & Figure chart 
readers will note that MLNM's P&F chart is bearish with a $7.50 
target.  

Annotated chart:

 

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:      - 0.00
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      2.7 million 



==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None


=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-10-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of October 11th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

=========================================
Market Watch for the week of October 11th
=========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

MDC  M.D.C.Holdings       Mon, Oct 11  After the market     2.73
STLY Stanley Furniture    Mon, Oct 11  After the market     0.74
TSCO Tractor Supply       Mon, Oct 11  After the market     0.22


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ADTN ADTRAN Inc           Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.25
AMB  AMB Property         Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.60
OZRK Bank of the Ozarks   Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.39
CAMP CalAmp Corp          Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.08
CACB Cascade Corp         Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.24
CBH  Commerce Bancorp     Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.83
XLTC Excel Technology     Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.33
FAST Fastenal             Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.47
GCI  Gannett              Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      1.19
HELE Helen of Troy        Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.53
INFY Infosys Technologies Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.33
INTC Intel Corp           Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.27
JNJ  Johnson & Johnson    Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.76
LLTC Linear Technology    Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.32
MTB  M&T Bank             Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      1.51
PCP  Precision Castparts  Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.82
PHG  Royal Phillips Elc   Tue, Oct 12  during the market     n/a
SONC Sonic Corp           Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.33
STT  State Street Corp    Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.65
STI  SunTrust             Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      1.31
TZOO TravelZoo            Tue, Oct 12  Before the bell      0.08
YHOO Yahoo! Inc           Tue, Oct 12  After the market     0.09

------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ACN  Accenture            Wed, Oct 13  Before the bell      0.28
AAPL Apple Compter        Wed, Oct 13  ---- n/a -----       0.18
ASML ASML Holdings        Wed, Oct 13  During the market    0.21
CEC  CEC Entertainment    Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.59
CCK  Crown Holdings Inc   Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.34
HDI  Harley Davidson      Wed, Oct 13  Before the bell      0.75
HMT  Host Marriott        Wed, Oct 13  Before the bell      0.11
LRCX Lam Research         Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.59
MOGN MGI Pharma           Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.11
NTOP Net2Phone            Wed, Oct 13  After the market    -0.10
NVLS Novellus Systems     Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.38
PPDI Pharma Prdt Devlopmt Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.29
QLGC QLogic               Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.36
SNDK SanDisk Corp         Wed, Oct 13  After the market     0.34
NYT  The New York Times   Wed, Oct 13  Before the bell      0.32


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

AOS  O.A.Smith Corp       Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.01
ABT  Abbott Labs          Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.53
BAC  Bank of America      Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.90
C    Citigroup            Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.99
CNET CNet Networks        Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.00
CREE Cree Inc.            Thr, Oct 14  ----- n/a -----      0.28
CY   Cypress Semi         Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.04
DJ   Dow Jones & Co       Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.15
ETN  Eaton                Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      1.12
ENDP Endo Pharmaceuticals Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.20
FCS  Fairchild Semi       Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.25
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp  Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.80
FDC  First Data Corp      Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.56
GM   General Motors       Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.96
JNPR Juniper Networks     Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.11
KEY  KeyCorp              Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.59
KRI  Knight-Ridder        Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.87
LEXR Lexar                Thr, Oct 14  After the market    -0.04
MRCY Mercury Computer Sys Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.22
MTG  MGIG Investment      Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      1.33
NFLX Netflix.com          Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.32
NOK  Nokia                Thr, Oct 14  ----- n/a -----      0.15
BTU  Peabody Energy       Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.62
PII  Polaris Industries   Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.97
RMBS Rambus Inc.          Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.06
LUV  Southwest Airlines   Thr, Oct 14  ----- n/a  -----     0.12
SYK  Stryker              Thr, Oct 14  After the market     0.33
SUNW Sun Microsystems     Thr, Oct 14  After the market    -0.03
SVU  SuperValue Inc.      Thr, Oct 14  ----- n/a -----      0.53
TCB  TCF Financial        Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.47
UIS  Unisys               Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.06
UNH  UnitedHealth         Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      1.00
WGO  Winnebago            Thr, Oct 14  Before the bell      0.50


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

CBSS Compass Bancshares   Fri, Oct 15  ----- n/a -----      0.74
GPC  Genuine Parts        Fri, Oct 15  Before the bell      0.56
LSS  Lone Star Tech.      Fri, Oct 15  After the market     1.35
MEG  Media General        Fri, Oct 15  Before the bell      0.66
WB   Wachovia Corp        Fri, Oct 15  Before the bell      0.99



----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable


MIK     Michaels Stores           2:1      Oct 12th    Oct 13th
NUE     Nucor Corp                2:1      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
PCBK    Pacific Continental Bank  5:4      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
RAVN    Raven Industries          2:1      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
CELG    Celgene Corp              2:1      Oct 22nd    Oct 25th
PDCO    Patterson Companies       2:1      Oct 22nd    Oct 25th
BGG     Briggs & Stratton         2:1      pending Oct 20th meeting

-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------
Q3 Earnings are here!  Wall Street will be wading through a flood
of Q3 earnings with the likes of INTC, JNJ and YHOO on Tuesday and
BAC, C and GM on Thursday just to name some of the big caps reporting.
Monday is Columbus day so the bond market will be closed.  Wednesday
is the third and final Presidential debate.  Friday brings the PPI
index numbers.


==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 10/11/04
----------------
Columbus Day - Bond Markets, Banks and Government offices closed.
Stock Market is open.

-----------------
Tuesday, 10/12/04
-----------------
Q3 Earnings reports really begin to pick up speed.

-------------------
Wednesday, 10/13/04
-------------------
Crude oil and gasoline inventories
The Third and Final Presidential Debate in AZ (9:00PM ET)

------------------
Thursday, 10/14/04
------------------
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims   Last: 335K 
Trade Balance numbers for August
Import/Export prices for September
Fed Governor Bernanke speaks in Washington
Fed Governor Geithner speaks in Atlanta

----------------
Friday, 10/15/04
----------------
Producer Price Index (PPI) for September  Last: -0.1% Est: +0.1%
NY Empire State Index for October
Retail Sales for September
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September
Michigan Sentiment for October (preliminary reading)
Fed Governor Kohn speaks in Germany


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the bell the Bell
AB=  After the market the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

COP     ConocoPhillips             88.08     +0.94
GDW     Golden West Fncl          114.34     +0.85
ETR     Entergy Corp               62.92     +0.52
ABK     Amback Financial           78.96     +1.56
CBH     Commerce Bancorp           58.46     +1.51
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch        36.57     +1.48

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

BNE     Browne & Co Inc            15.00     +1.76
LDIS    Leadis Tech                15.23     +1.32

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
RTRSY   Reuters Group Plc (ADR)    36.96     +1.40
UTIW    UTI Worldwide              61.70     +1.37
BEBE    Bebe Stores                25.26     +1.10
STTX    Steel Technologies         29.30     +1.12

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ACL     Alcon Inc                  73.73     -1.45
SYK     Stryker Corp               45.51     -1.73
ZMH     Zimmer Holdings            74.21     -1.49
APOL    Apollo Group Inc           69.81     -2.09
ELN     Elan Corp                  21.71     -1.39
WHR     Whirlpool                  57.91     -1.12
BEC     Beckman Coulter            54.35     -1.37
WES     Westcorp Inc               40.60     -1.20
FLIR    FLIR Systems               54.52     -3.64

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

SYMC    Symantec Corp              54.93     -2.08
CLF     Cleveland-Cliffs           79.65     -2.98
PETD    Petroleum Development Crp  42.38     -2.87
TLM     Talisman Energy            26.00     -0.29
ADSK    Autodesk Inc               48.04     -2.86
PXR     Paxar Corp                 22.63     -0.50


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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