Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 10/12/2004

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 10-12-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Close, But Was It Close Enough?
Watch List:        Software to Hardware and more
Market Sentiment:  The Earnings Shuffle

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      10-12-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10077.18 -  4.80 10102.33 10017.15 1.62 bln 1519/1703
NASDAQ   1925.17 -  3.60  1929.98  1904.11 1.52 bln 1312/1778
S&P 100   539.22 -  0.70   540.49   536.27   Totals 2821/3481
S&P 500  1121.84 -  2.55  1124.39  1115.77 
SOX       386.36 -  5.20   391.53   380.17
RUS 2000  576.71 -  0.85   578.10   570.49
DJ TRANS 3338.98 +  2.80  3330.78  3296.09
VIX        15.05 +  0.34    15.69    14.91
VXO (VIX-O)15.17 +  0.18    16.10    14.87
VXN        20.93 +  0.88    21.77    20.71 
Total Volume 3,440M
Total UpVol  1,166M
Total DnVol  2,204M
Total Adv  3155
Total Dcl  4023
52wk Highs  170
52wk Lows   120
TRIN       1.76
NAZTRIN    0.51
PUT/CALL   1.00
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Close, But Was It Close Enough?
by Jim Brown

Intel and Yahoo announced earnings after the bell and 
both were close to analyst's estimates. The question is
were they close enough? Were they good enough to pull
the markets back from the brink of disaster or did they
lack enough excitement keep them from going over the 
cliff? 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 


The morning opened with a flurry of earnings warnings
and earnings from a couple of heavy weights. JNJ beat
the street this morning by +2 cents at 78 cents for the
quarter. JNJ saw strong sales in multiple divisions both
locally and globally. Revenue rose +10.5% for the quarter
and they raised their estimates for Q4. This was much
needed good news for the drug industry and consumer
products. They did say they saw slower growth for 2005.
 
Merrill Lynch posted earnings that beat the street but
were down from last years levels. The company said slow
trading volumes contributed to the revenue decline but
overall performance was very strong given the market
conditions. Merrill jumped +1.48 on the news.

Those two earnings releases did a lot to offset the
damage done by a SEMI report saying global chip sales
had fallen -29% in August on a month over month basis. 
Chip sales in China fell -51%, North America -31%, 
Japan -20%. This knocked about -10 points off the SOX
at the open and cratered the tech sector. Warnings from
HLIT and a SEC inquiry at AMKR also pressured chips. PHG
said sales would be flat sequentially and they were also
seeing price erosion for consumer electronics chips. SB
downgraded SNDK to a sell citing weakening pricing and
slowing manufacturing benefits. They spoke positive
about FLSH in the same report. 

Greasing the slide was a sharp spike in oil to new highs
at $54.45 before the open and once over $54 the equity
market imploded. This appeared to be the point where
even the strongest bulls lost their appetite for stocks.
Oil was up on strikes/fires in Nigeria and a 55,000 MBpd
loss of production from Norway. Bulls got a reprieve late
in the day when oil suddenly fell out of sight to trade 
on Globex at a $52.14 low. This was -2.31 off the highs
on no real news. Analysts theorized that the $54 level 
was simply too much for those already long to pass up 
and profits were taken. This same thing happened when 
we neared $50 the first time. We are also only three 
weeks away from the election and the calendar is ticking
down on any risk for terrorists to impact prices before
the election. 

When oil began its sharp drop the equity markets began
a bullish run that took the Dow and Nasdaq back to 
positive territory. Fear of Intel and Yahoo earnings
produced some profit taking prior to the close and we
ended level for the day in everything but the SOX. 

After the bell Intel announced earnings that missed
estimates by a penny but said the right things in the
earnings release to send their stock higher. They earned
30 cents per share but 3.6 cents was due to a tax item
and not operating earnings. Their gross margins fell to
55.7% and well below estimates of 58%. The reason for 
the drop was discounting to get rid of inventory and
a product mix slanted to lower margins. Intel rose in
after hours trading despite the miss and some cautious
comments about the 4Q. They are targeting 4Q margins
at 56% which is still below analysts estimates. They
targeted revenue at $8.6B-$9.2B and the consensus was
for $9.1B. On the conference call Andy Bryant said 
there was too much inventory still in the system and
seasonal 4Q demand was softer than expected but they
were making progress. 

Considering the negative expectations for Intel the
fact they missed earnings slightly and guidance was
only "soft" represented a positive surprise. INTC 
traded up +70 cents in after hours. The real question
is how will it trade tomorrow? Was the soft guidance 
good enough to provide a continued bounce when real 
volume hits the tape? 

Yahoo actually posted better earnings even though they
only matched street estimates at nine cents. They did
exceed revenue estimates of $644 million with a spike
to $655 million. Advertising revenue was up +10% over
Q2 and Q2 was up +9.2% over Q1. They gave guidance for 
Q4 for $710-$760 million that straddled analysts 
estimates of $730 million. They also raised full year
estimates slightly. YHOO only rose +50 cents in after
hours and represents expectations already priced into
the stock. The real impact could be to Google which
rose +$2 in after hours in advance of their earnings
on Thursday of next week. Google will be expected to
match or beat Yahoo's performance and guidance or face
the wrath of traders. On Monday American Technology
Research downgraded GOOG to a SELL citing concerns 
about valuation and competition. Last week Jeffries
also downgraded Google citing excessive valuations.
ATR went so far as to suggest shorting Google at this
level. However, Google got to this level over the
bodies of bleeding bears so caution is definitely 
the key. I expect we will see further GOOG spikes on
Wednesday as shorts cover on fears they will post
better results than Yahoo.  

The economics for the day were evenly mixed with the
Richmond Fed Survey moving +4 points higher and the
Kansas Fed Survey dropping -2 points. The Richmond
Fed rose inexplicably after New Orders fell to 8 from
13, Order Backlog to -6 from +1 and the Six Month 
Outlook to 23 from 28. The only major component to
rise was Shipments from 18 to 22. Employment did
return to positive territory but remained soft. 
The Kansas Fed Survey showed only a small drop in the
headline number and that was repeated in the majority
of the components. Again employment rose slightly and
New Orders fell.   

Oil prices may have fallen but commodities in general
continue to rise. This will continue to be a sore
topic for months to come regardless of what happens
to oil. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has risen
over +103% in the last 33 months. According to one
analyst a gain of more than 55% in any 30 month period
has NEVER failed to produce a recession. CNBC ran a
sequence of screens several times on Tuesday showing
price rises in various common products like butter +50%,
turkeys +38%, etc over the last year. Feedstocks are
soaring and that is pushing up the cost of food across
the board. Storm damage has wiped out most of the orange, 
grapefruit and peanut crops in the south and prices 
for those items and products made with those items are
going even higher. Peanuts are a major staple ingredient
for many products including candy, baked goods, peanut
oil for frying and cooking, etc. This just a random
sample but other sectors with soaring prices include 
building materials. The hurricane damage is expected 
to suck up a six month supply of building supplies 
like plywood, sheetrock, shingles, insulation, etc. 
This will raise prices for home construction across 
the country as supply as demand equalizes. Add in oil
prices that suddenly seem cheap at $52 overnight today
and the economy has a tough road ahead.

I relate that paragraph above because just having Yahoo
serve up +10% more ads and Intel happy about only "soft"
4Q demand is not going to send the bulls roaring back
into the market for long. We may get a bounce on 
Wednesday but we are going to need a stronger showing
of major firms with positive earnings and guidance to
convince the herd. 

We are three weeks away from the election and the 
candidates are still dead even going into the last 
debate on Wednesday. The election is up for grabs and
the market does not know which way to jump. The next
round of earnings continues tomorrow with the emphasis
on chips and technology. ASML, AAPL, LRCX, NTOP, NVLS,
QLGC and SNDK report on Wednesday. On Thursday we get 
AOS, ABT, BAC, BBT, C, CY, ETN, ENDP, SSP, FITB, FDC,
GM, HIB, KEY, KRI, LSTR, MRCY, MTG, NCC, NOK, BTU, PII,
RDC, LUV, SVU, TRAD, UIS, UNH, WGO, CNET, CREE, FCS, 
JNPR, LEXR, NFLX, NMSS, RMBS, SYK, SUNW. There are some
well known companies in that list but we are lacking
the big name market movers like IBM, MSFT, MMM, etc. 
The rest of this week has a lot of smoke but the next 
real wave of market movers does not come until next week.
Intel may have relieved some pressure from the tech sector
but the small fry above could sour that picture once again.

The rebound on the Dow today lifted the index away from
breakdown risk at the 10000 level but we are still a
long way from breaking last weeks 10250 resistance. The
10100 level has been initial resistance for three days
and based on the futures overnight we should retest 
that again at the open. If a higher move is successful
that puts us right back into the middle of our congestion
range while we wait for the earnings generals next week.

The Nasdaq is already in the middle of the recent range
at 1930 and has +40 points of upside potential before
hitting the strong 1965 resistance level. The overnight
Nasdaq futures are showing a +10 point gain and again
that leaves us right in the middle of our recent range.

The current setup suggests the rest of the week may not
see a breakout in either direction. We could be left to
suffer slow torture as dozens of small companies with
mixed results push the markets around like a rowboat on
a stormy lake. Lots of chop but no real direction. To 
make matters worse this is option expiration week and 
we have yet to see any real option related moves. With
the Intel and Yahoo volatility added to Wednesday trading
that expiration volatility could appear at the open. If
there were any institutions betting on a major Intel miss
then they could be squeezed at the open and that could give
us the last major move for the week. Thursday and Friday
are not expected to be directional. Bottom line for me
is look both ways before stepping off the curb tomorrow
but expect traffic to slow by the end of the week. 

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

BEA Systems - BEAS - close: 7.37 change: +0.00

WHAT TO WATCH: There may not be much to watch here in BEAS.  The 
stock looks like a bullish candidate now.  Shares of the software 
maker has been climbing in a rising channel since mid-August.  If 
you use a regression tool it's very easy to see.  Today's bounce 
from the $7.00 level is also a perfect bounce from the bottom of 
the rising channel (and its simple 40-dma).  Traders can use the 
move as a bullish entry point.  More conservative types may want 
a little more confirmation with a move over $7.45.  The $8.00 and 
$8.25 levels mark potential profit targets.  Earnings are not 
expected until November.




---

Loews Carolina - CG - close: 25.59 change: +1.03

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of CG surged more than 4 percent on volume 
that was almost three times the average to breakout over major 
resistance at $25.00 and its simple 200-dma.  We can't find any 
stock-specific news to account for the rally.  Larger rivals MO 
and RAI traded in a narrow range today.  Aggressive traders may 
want to use this move as a bullish entry point.  The rest of us 
may need to do some more research.




---

Yum! Brands - YUM - close: 42.02 change: +0.67

WHAT TO WATCH: Fast-food franchise titan YUM is on the move 
again.  A week ago we noted the breakout over resistance at 
$41.00.  Since then the stock has consolidated sideways but 
today's rebound from the $41 level as support looks like a 
bullish entry point.  The P&F chart is extremely bullish with a 
$74 target, which is a little too lofty for us.  We would target 
more conservative 5 percent to 10 percent gains from here.




---

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 38.29 change: -0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: Keep an eye on AAPL tomorrow.  The iPod maker is 
due to report earnings and Wall Street is looking for 18 cents a 
share.  There were some cautious comments this morning asking if 
AAPL was worth $40 a share but traders stepped in to buy the dip 
this morning.  The company is getting some new competition for 
its mini iPod today but rumors are circulating that AAPL will 
unveil a new larger 60-gig iPod with a color screen before 
Christmas. 





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

DISH $33.49 +0.32 - DISH was on the watch list yesterday with its 
breakout over $33 and its simple 200-dma.  Today's shows a nice 
bounce and another new five-month high.

LVLT $3.30 +0.32 - Whoa!  LVLT just added another 10.7 percent on 
huge volume today.

PLMD $32.73 +1.02 - PLMD just broke out over resistance at $32.00 
to hit new all-time highs on rising volume.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

The Earnings Shuffle
- J. Brown

If you just look at the closing numbers then Tuesday turned out 
to be a non-event.  However, you would be missing the excitement 
of the long slow climb back toward breakeven today.  I'm being 
sarcastic.  The major indices were just shy of break even and the 
climb was anything but exciting.  Volume has been relatively low 
the past two sessions.  Most investors were sitting on the 
sidelines waiting for this afternoon's earnings announcements.  

Throughout the session oil remained the focus, not earnings.  
November oil futures hit $54 a barrel before declining to $52.50.  
The pull back was probably the only thing giving stocks a boost 
today.  

Overall the markets were mixed with a negative bias.  Internals 
showed 5 losers for every 4 winners on the NYSE and 17 decliners 
for every 12 winners on the NASDAQ.  Down volume was almost twice 
as strong as up volume on the NYSE and about a third better on 
the NASDAQ.  

It was interesting to hear of SG Cowen's note to clients to avoid 
semiconductor stocks just hours before Intel reported earnings 
after the close.  Intel missed the estimate by a penny but 
investors seem to be interpreting the call as bullish with higher 
revenues and lower inventories.  Meanwhile YHOO's earnings were 
inline but sales were strong and the company gave a bullish bias 
towards the fourth quarter.  Now the question is whether any of 
this positive spin will still be around tomorrow to influence 
technology shares on Wednesday.  

Tomorrow's big events are as follows.  Wall Street will be 
interested to hear the latest crude oil and gasoline inventory 
numbers.  Major earnings on Wednesday include AAPL, ASML, HDI, 
LRCX, NVLS, QLGC, and SNDK but none of them are real market 
movers.  Wednesday night will be the third and final presidential 
debate but most pundits expect the two candidates to merely play 
to their base of core voters.  

I would keep an eye on some of the technology stocks.  Looking at 
the sector specific indices (GHA.X, GSO.X, SOX.X, etc.) they've 
all painted a decent bounce from today's lows that could see some 
follow through tomorrow.  Meanwhile the OIX oil index has turned 
south and broken through the bottom of its narrow rising channel.  
The OSX oil services index did the same yesterday and is seeing 
some additional profit taking today.  Don't be surprised to see 
more selling tomorrow as traders rush to lock in gains in these 
overbought sectors.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10077

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10138
 50-dma: 10120 
200-dma: 10294



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1121

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1127
 50-dma: 1107
200-dma: 1119



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1435

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1443
 50-dma: 1390
200-dma: 1441



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.05 +0.34
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.17 +0.18
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.93 +0.88


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.00        773,793       773,814
Equity Only    0.90        569,940       512,918
OEX            1.13         36,034        40,651
QQQ            2.65         50,568       133,835


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          65.7    - 0.25  Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    - 0     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   56.6    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 500       64.2    - 0     Bear Correction
S&P 100       61.0    - 1     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.31
10-dma: 0.99
21-dma: 1.11
55-dma: 1.13


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1281      1273
Decliners    1521      1717

New Highs      82        70
New Lows       27        34

Up Volume    526M      605M
Down Vol.   1070M      856M

Total Vol.  1613M     1503M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/05/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders aren't making any big bets ahead of the Q3
earnings season.  Longs and shorts have moved closer to parity
and the bearish sentiment is at it lowest level in four weeks.
Small traders are upping both their longs and their shorts but
their bullish bias is waning a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)
09/28/04      404,773   434,441   (29,668)   (3.5%)
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%
09/28/04      135,317   107,173    28,144    11.6%
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have upped their positions in both longs
and shorts but clearly remain net bearish.  In contrast the
small traders have raised their positions in longs and shorts
and remain staunchly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)
09/28/04      226,020   420,714   (194,694)  (30.1%)
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%
09/28/04      262,501     68,255   194,246    58.7%
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

We are not seeing a lot of movement in commercials' positions
so they remain net bullish on the NDX.  Meanwhile small traders
are raising positions in both longs and shorts but shorts saw
a big jump creating a large bearish bias by small traders.  This
is of course a bullish contrarian indicator.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%
09/28/04       55,045     32,319    22,726   26.0%
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)
09/28/04       10,078    22,917   (12,839)  (38.9%)
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Investors both big and small seem rather undecided about how
to bet on the Industrials. The gap between longs and shorts 
continue to narrow, especially between small traders where it's
a dead-even.  This is the least bullish commercials have been
in weeks while it's the least bearish small traders have been
in weeks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
09/28/04       29,714    26,877    2,837       5.0%
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)
09/28/04        5,143     5,988   (  845)   ( 7.6%)
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 10-12-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  None

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: STN

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

None


==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================


============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Station Casinos - STN - close: 47.58 change: +0.20 stop: 48.49

An upgrade in the form of a higher price target on Monday was not 
enough to staunch the selling yesterday.  STN broke down under 
minor support at the $48.00 level on above average volume.  We've 
been waiting for several days to see STN breakout over the $51.00 
level and it doesn't look like that's going to occur any time 
soon.  Therefore we are closing this play unopened.


Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      469 thousand





==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None

==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MER     Merrill Lynch              52.48     +1.48
LEH     Lehman Brothers            81.41     +0.67
GD      General Dynamics          101.40     +1.33
YUM     Yum! Brands                42.02     +0.67
MTB     M&T Bank                  101.70     +1.87
AEE     Ameren Corp                47.00     +0.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CREO    Creo Inc                   11.15     +2.38

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
INFY    Infosys Technologies       58.89     +2.84
ADBE    Adobe Systems              52.01     +1.07
CTSH    Cognizant Tech             32.27     +1.48
SAY     Satyam Computer Svc        27.02     +1.68
HSC     Harsco Corp                48.84     +1.17
CG      Carolina Group             25.59     +1.03
NTES    Netease.com                42.43     +1.43

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

LLY     Eli Lilly Co               57.15     -1.85
FDC     First Data Corp            40.97     -1.84
STT     State Street Corp          41.16     -2.69
APOL    Apollo Group               68.06     -1.22
VMC     Vulcan Materials           48.79     -2.14
FRO     Frontline Ltd (ADR)        48.61     -3.81
FAST    Fastenal                   51.60     -6.29
MLM     Martin Marietta Materials  44.74     -1.13
OSK     Oshkosh Truck Corp         54.45     -3.09

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

NXY     Nexen Inc                  44.51     -1.05
TDS     Telephone Data Sys         82.31     -1.17
CCJ     Cameco Corp                81.07     -2.62
GMR     General Maritime           36.05     -1.96
WCC     Wesco Intl Inc             23.58     -1.77
SU      Suncor Energy              33.25     -0.77
PD      Phelps Dodge               91.74     -1.51


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives