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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 10/14/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 10-14-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Thank You Elliott Spitzer
Watch List:        Candidates for Everybody
Market Sentiment:  Earnings & Oil Double-Team.

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      10-14-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     9894.45 -107.90 10003.36  9875.13 1.66 bln 1285/1805
NASDAQ   1903.02 - 17.50  1921.82  1900.77 1.47 bln  973/2052
S&P 100   529.58 -  5.90   535.73   528.75   Totals 2258/3857
S&P 500  1103.29 - 10.36  1114.97  1102.06 
W5000   10788.48 - 92.52 10892.34 10777.97
SOX       380.60 - 12.70   393.25   378.98
RUS 2000  564.88 -  4.54   570.06   564.79
DJ TRANS 3302.90 + 20.50  3315.18  3282.57
VIX        16.43 +  1.01    16.56    15.22
VXO (VIX-O)17.13 +  0.88    17.80    15.78
VXN        22.30 +  0.17    22.67    22.03 
Total Volume 3,424M
Total UpVol  1,038M
Total DnVol  2,339M
Total Adv  2556
Total Dcl  4333
52wk Highs  102
52wk Lows   139
TRIN       1.58
NAZTRIN    1.00
PUT/CALL   1.07
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Thank You Elliott Spitzer
by Jim Brown

Single-handedly Elliott Spitzer turned into a one man
wrecking crew and sent the indexes into a death spiral
at 10:30 this morning. Spitzer took aim at the major
insurance companies in what he called a major scandal
and financial stocks imploded. Dow component AIG lost
-7 points taking nearly -63 points off the Dow. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 
Wilshire-5000 Chart

 

Spitzer said he was going to sue Marsh McLennan for 
a wide ranging scheme to defraud clients and sell 
insurance at artificially high rates. The four major
insurers took substantial hits with AIG -6.99, AOC
-4.48, CB -4.09 and MMC a whopping -11.28. In what
could develop into a RICO prosecution Spitzer has 
taken aim at these monster companies and claims their
pattern of business practices are fraudulent. The
case stems from the quotation process. According to
Spitzer companies like MMC accepted payments from 
insurers to sell their insurance at higher prices
than the competition. MMC supposedly would produce
fictitious quotes putting the company they wanted
to win in the quote at the price they wanted to get
for the insurance. 

The challenge was the relationship between the client
and broker created fiduciary responsibility and MMC 
and others violated that responsibility by taking 
payoffs for quote positioning. They were representing
the quotes as the best available when they knew there
was insurance available at cheaper rates in their own
rate book. MMC reportedly made $800 million in kickbacks
last year and that was nearly half of their total profit.

When asked in a TV interview if he was going to put
the companies out of business he ducked the question
but stated the companies were not cooperating. Because
these companies deal in various securities as well a 
felony conviction could put them out of business like
Arthur Anderson. It is a death sentence for financial
entities and based on Spitzer's description of the
complaint it could happen. However, because these
four companies represent the majority of business
written in the U.S. the odds are good there will be
a settlement with those that cooperate. One could be
made an example and sent down the tubes as a warning
to the rest. MMC appears to be the target of choice.

MMC Chart

  


Before the insurance bomb hit the markets they were
already struggling under a widening oil slick and 
having trouble just treading water. A fire at a west
coast refinery did not hamper production but prices
continued to climb. Oil inventories rose +4.2MB for
the week and much more than expected but prices still
rose. Heating oil inventories fell sharply and prices
hit another all time high with a close at $1.548. 

Crude Chart

  

Heating Oil Chart

 


While the market was being ransacked by the insurance
and oil problems the semiconductor sector was also under
attack. The list of chip stocks either missing earnings
or warning in the last 48 hours was long and it was still
getting longer at today's close. The list included NVLS,
FLEX, SNDK, LRCX and PHTN to name a few. The SOX lost
-12 points or -3.21% but the damage could have been a
lot worse. The SOX found support at 380 and clung to 
that level all afternoon. This limited the Nasdaq loss
to only -17 points and kept it from breaking 1900 support.
The 380 support could be critical to our market direction
on Friday. A break of that level could see a return to 
the lows for the year at 350. 

SOX Chart

 


Economically the news was not good either. The Jobless
Claims rose to 352,000 and the four-week moving average
rose to 353,000. This is not good news for the recovering
economy. There were no hurricanes to blame and California
and Illinois were the states with the biggest increases.
Claims under 150K equate with job gains in the employment
report over 100K per month and claims over 150K generally
equate to a flat to down job market. 

Import prices rose a smaller than expected +0.2% but
odds are good next month will show a dramatic increase.
Oil prices have rocketed higher and this should skew
the numbers dramatically. The International Trade 
numbers reflected a much stronger impact of oil prices
with the trade balance slipping to -$54 billion and
the second highest level in history. Import growth 
is soaring at +20.7% and at record highs while export
growth is rising at a slower +14.2% rate. At the current
rate foreign trade will subtract from our Q3/Q4 GDP 
instead of contribute to its rise as in Q1/Q2. 

Friday has some critical economic reports and the market
will be looking for some relief. The NY Manufacturing
Survey is expected to be weaker after a strong rebound
last month. How weak will be the key. We will get the
PPI for September and the consensus is for a flat 
reading but eventually oil prices have to produce a 
strong bounce in the PPI numbers. Retail sales are 
expected to show a bounce to +0.6% for September on 
back to school shopping but the cycle was noticeably
weak in most areas. Consumer Sentiment is expected to
be flat at 94.9 but with the election mudslinging and
rocketing energy prices there is the potential for a 
major drop. Business Inventories are expected to rise
+0.7% but if the economy is really slowing as much of
the earnings guidance has indicated those inventories
could be much higher. Friday could be rocky economically. 

Even without the insurance bomb the Dow was already in
trouble with the warning from GM. GM said it was cutting
12,000 jobs in Europe and would be cutting more in the
U.S. They slashed profit forecasts and said demand 
remained weak. They may have reached a point where they
can't provide enough incentives to sell more cars. With
up to $6,000 in incentives on some models the company
has tried to keep production rolling but now may be
forced to close some assembly lines. Merrill Lynch said
they are likely to close at least one plant completely
and possibly more. The high incentives helped dealers
liquidate 230,000 units of their current 1.137 million
units of unsold cars and trucks in Q3. With strong tax
bills ahead in December for dealers stuck with those
vehicles at year end we can expect huge promotions to
move inventory over the next two months. 

The Dow retreated to close under 9900 and at the May
lows. This is a very important support level and we
are closing in on the August lows at 9783. This is
the make or break time for the Dow. A successful test
of 9800 would create a double bottom and a potential
launch point for a post election rally. A failure at
9800 would be very critical and could easily project
to 9600 to 9300 depending on which technical analyst
you believe. A break below 9800 would be a lower low
and break many of the technical models suggesting an
end of October rally. 

The Nasdaq is much stronger than the Dow and clung to
support at 1900 most of the afternoon. This is decent
support and considering the rash of earnings misses
and warnings in the tech sector it is amazing we held
this level. A break here targets 1850-1860. 

I am clinging to my bias that we should see a rebound
over the next couple of days. Technically speaking we
should plummet to new lows and not look back. However, 
the last two weeks of October in election years are 
almost always bullish if the incumbent is ahead. The 
problem we are facing is an election with no leader,
oil prices soaring despite higher inventory levels,
terrible earnings and a very high ratio of negative
guidance. We are also facing the start of Ramadan, 
the Muslim holy month, on Friday in Saudi Arabia. 
During the month Muslims are forbidden to eat, drink
or smoke during daylight hours. Also during Ramadan
we have historically seen an escalation of terrorist
activities. 

This makes tomorrow even more volatile than normal
for an option expiration day. Four of the economic
reports for Friday will be released before the open
and fortunately for us there are no major earnings.
Earnings after the close today failed to dent the
overnight futures despite some spectacular failures.
Juniper beat the street and raised guidance but got
killed for more than a -$2 drop in after hours on
comments about a recent acquisition. Juniper has
beaten estimates for eight straight quarters. CNET
beat the street but warned for Q4 and lost -12% in
after hours trading. LEXR posted inline and traded
down. RMBS beat the street and traded level. SUNW 
beat the street but traded level on a weak outlook.
CREE beat the street by +4 cents but lost -1.50 in
after hours after guiding revenue lower and earnings
higher. The highest profile failure was NFLX. NFLX 
beat estimates by +3 cents but then traded down to
$11 from $17 after saying they expected competition
to become increasing stronger and they were slashing
subscriber rates to combat the trend. Blockbuster 
has a competing service now and Amazon is expected
to enter the competition. That -37% drop in the 
stock was on heavy volume. 

That makes a very light earnings schedule on Friday
good news for the bulls because even good earnings 
news has been riddled with negative factors. This
could be a critical day for the bulls and they had
better rally the troops to stave off a break of 9800.
While we are running out of reasons to move higher
the expectations for the end of the year rally 
remains the same from most analysts. The divergence
between economic reality and market expectations is
growing about as wide as the reality gap between 
oil prices at all time highs and the Transports 
soaring like diesel was 29 cents a gallon. Eventually
all divergences return to reality and while I was
expecting it to happen in January for equities there
is always the possibility that market conditions for
creating the perfect storm are currently forming. If
you are bullish Monday should be the day to go long
with historical trends in your favor. It also means
that Friday could be highly volatile as everyone
positions for the expected move. 

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 40.88 change: +0.78

WHAT TO WATCH: There's no weakness in shares of BG.  The stock's 
four-week climb has sent shares back towards resistance near 
$41.50.  If BG can breakout it would produce a new triple-top 
breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.  Consider using a trigger 
to catch the move but watch out for earnings on or near October 
28th.  We would target the $44-45 range for a short-term run.




---

Kimco Realty - KIM - close: 52.60 change: +0.94

WHAT TO WATCH: Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs have 
totally ignored the recent market weakness.  Most of the sector-
specific indices that cover the group are hitting new highs.  
Shares of KIM are doing just that - hitting new highs.  The move 
over resistance at $52 looks like an entry point but patient 
traders may want to watch for a dip back toward $51 and buy a 
bounce.  Just remember to set your stop loss and be patient.  KIM 
isn't the fastest moving stock.




---

Pep Boys - PBY - close: 12.42 change: -1.15

WHAT TO WATCH: A downgrade for PBY has sent the stock to an 8.4 
percent decline and a new one-year low.  Shares had been 
consolidating above support at $13.00 but the stock was wilting 
under a trend of lower highs.  The high-volume breakdown today 
and the new MACD sell signal looks like a bearish entry point. If 
you're patient consider targeting the $10 region.  Just watch for 
earnings around November 10th.




---

Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP - close: 31.33 change: -1.82

WHAT TO WATCH: We are still watching CCMP.  The stock recently 
broke minor resistance near the $34 level and now the descent is 
picking up speed and volume.  Shares just dropped 5.5 percent and 
closed under its simple 100-dma.  Readers can watch for a bounce 
from round-number support at $30.00 or a breakdown.  Either can 
offer a short-term trade.  Remember to avoid the earnings report 
on October 21st.  





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PETM $30.00 +0.05 - We're still watching for a move over $30.25.

BEAS $7.48 +0.05 - BEAS is holding up despite the drop in the 
NASDAQ today.

MCD $29.08 +0.22 - MCD is still climbing after its positive 
earnings report. The rally looks headed for the $30 mark.

PCU $46.15 +0.25 - The sell-off in copper stocks may be overdue.  
Watch this one for a bounce back toward $50.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Earnings & Oil Double-Team.
- J. Brown

Investor sentiment has taken a turn for the worse.  The Q3 
earnings parade has not been enough to divert attention from the 
record prices in crude oil.  Every tick higher raises concerns 
about the impact on our economy.  At a new all-time high of 
$54.76 the talk of $60 a barrel may become a self-fulfilling 
prophesy.  

Then again focusing on earnings may not help either.  Citigroup 
and General Motors left investors disappointed and technology 
stocks aren't doing so hot either with SanDisk dropping 27 
percent.  iPod-producer Apple Computer seems to be the lone 
standout today.  

As if rising oil and lackluster fourth quarter guidance wasn't 
bad enough the New York Attorney General Elliott Spitzer said he 
was investigating anti-fraud issues in the insurance sector.  
Several of the big names in the group like MMC, AIG and HIG were 
possible defendants and the whole sector crashed.  The IUX 
insurance index fell almost 7 percent.  MMC dropped 24 percent 
and AIG plummeted 10 percent.  

Overall market internals were pretty negative.  Decliners 
outpaced advancers almost 17 to 11 on the NSYE and 20 to 9 on the 
NASDAQ.  Down volume overshadowed up volume 12 to 5 on the NYSE 
and 10 to 5 on the NASDAQ.  

On top of it all the third and final presidential debate last 
night was a toss up.  Both sides are claiming victory, which is a 
big surprise there (not).  However, the real money futures on the 
election are narrowing with Bush's lead faltering.  The markets 
hate uncertainty and this election's results couldn't be more 
uncertain.  

Looking at the Industrials the index appears to be headed toward 
its August lows near 9800.  However, the index has been trading 
in a descending channel and the bottom of the channel is closer 
to 9700 almost 9600.  Setting a new low for the year would be 
pretty disappointing.  

Tomorrow brings the Producer Price Index, the NY Empire State 
index, the Retail sales for September, the Michigan Sentiment 
numbers and industrial production and capacity utilization.  It's 
going to be a busy Friday.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     :  9894

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10106
 50-dma: 10113 
200-dma: 10289



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1103

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1125
 50-dma: 1107
200-dma: 1119



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1425

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1446
 50-dma: 1392
200-dma: 1441



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.43 +1.01
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.13 +0.88
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 22.30 +0.17


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.07        955,623     1,023,708
Equity Only    0.85        667,745       568,304
OEX            0.86         75,219        65,206
QQQ            2.02         33,550        67,878


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64.3    - 1     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    45.0    - 0     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   53.3    - 3     Bear Confirmed***
S&P 500       62.4    - 2     Bear Correction
S&P 100       60.0    - 1     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.46
10-dma: 1.08
21-dma: 1.09
55-dma: 1.14


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1113       918
Decliners    1682      2053

New Highs      59        55
New Lows       56        53

Up Volume    542M      484M
Down Vol.   1264M     1059M

Total Vol.  1825M     1579M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/05/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders aren't making any big bets ahead of the Q3
earnings season.  Longs and shorts have moved closer to parity
and the bearish sentiment is at it lowest level in four weeks.
Small traders are upping both their longs and their shorts but
their bullish bias is waning a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/14/04      442,049   469,982   (27,933)   (3.0%)
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)
09/28/04      404,773   434,441   (29,668)   (3.5%)
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      167,310   126,513    40,797    13.9%
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%
09/28/04      135,317   107,173    28,144    11.6%
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have upped their positions in both longs
and shorts but clearly remain net bearish.  In contrast the
small traders have raised their positions in longs and shorts
and remain staunchly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
09/14/04      377,643   586,139   (208,496)  (21.6%)
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)
09/28/04      226,020   420,714   (194,694)  (30.1%)
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04      289,155     81,314   207,841    56.1%
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%
09/28/04      262,501     68,255   194,246    58.7%
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

We are not seeing a lot of movement in commercials' positions
so they remain net bullish on the NDX.  Meanwhile small traders
are raising positions in both longs and shorts but shorts saw
a big jump creating a large bearish bias by small traders.  This
is of course a bullish contrarian indicator.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
09/14/04       64,282     59,808     4,474    3.6%
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%
09/28/04       55,045     32,319    22,726   26.0%
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       36,372    28,584     7,788    12.0%
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)
09/28/04       10,078    22,917   (12,839)  (38.9%)
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Investors both big and small seem rather undecided about how
to bet on the Industrials. The gap between longs and shorts 
continue to narrow, especially between small traders where it's
a dead-even.  This is the least bullish commercials have been
in weeks while it's the least bearish small traders have been
in weeks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/14/04       41,951    34,486    7,465       9.7%
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
09/28/04       29,714    26,877    2,837       5.0%
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/14/04        8,121    14,425   (6,304)   (27.9%)
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)
09/28/04        5,143     5,988   (  845)   ( 7.6%)
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 10-14-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  PSSI, LSCP

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays:  AMH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

PSSI - non-tech short -
  We are going to lower our stop loss from 
  $10.51 to $10.26
 
 
LSCP - non-tech short -
  LSCP looks ready to breakdown under $19.00.
  We are going to lower our stop from $21.49
  to $21.01.


==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

None
 
==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

-----------
Closed Play
-----------

  Closed Bullish Play
  --------------------

AmerUs Group - AMH - close: 39.91 change: -1.26 stop: 39.99

News that New York Attorney General Elliott Spitzer was aiming 
his legal guns at the insurance industry sent the sector into a 
tailspin.  Heavy hitters in the group dove and AMH, who was not 
listed as a potential defendant, lost 3 percent in sympathy.  The 
drop was enough to send AMH through its simple 40 and simple 50-
dma's and round-number, psychological support at $40.00.  We are 
stopped out at $39.99.

Picked on October 01 at $42.55 
Gain since picked:      - 2.64
Earnings Date         11/02/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      222 thousand




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

ECA     Encana Corp                48.17     +0.72
IMO     Imperial Oil Ltd           54.25     +0.57
DVN     Devon Energy               72.98     +0.75
CSG     Cadbury Schwepps           32.06     +0.78
ITT     ITT Industries             79.06     +0.51
KIM     Kimco Realty               52.60     +0.94

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ENDP    Endo Pharmaceutical        19.79     +1.39
SWFT    Swift Transportation       17.85     +1.17
FHCC    First Health Group         17.04     +2.00
ENER    Energy Conv. Devices       19.66     +1.26
RNVS    Renovis                    11.58     +1.58
CAAS    China Automotive Sys       11.51     +2.91

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
AAPL    Apple Computer Inc         44.98     +5.23
CME     Chicago Mercantile Exchg  171.69     +4.44
REG     Regency Centers            47.80     +1.29
PPDI    Pharma Product Development 40.23     +4.22
UTIW    UTI Worldwide              64.00     +3.23
LSTR    Landstar System            60.59     +2.64
DY      Dycom Industries           29.66     +2.11

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AIG     American Intl Group        60.00     -6.99
MMC     Marsh & Mclennan           34.85     -11.28
GM      General Motors             38.84     -2.46
ACL     Alcon Inc                  67.84     -8.56
HIG     Hartford Fincl Services    58.40     -3.78
COF     Capital One Financial      69.22     -1.42
LTR     Loews Corp                 57.22     -1.01
CB      Chubb Corp                 65.65     -4.09
ATH     Anthem Inc                 82.12     -1.78

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

BAC     Bank of America            44.20     -0.81
LEH     Lehman Brothers            79.60     -1.24
UCI     UICI                       30.41     -4.24
GBBK    Greater Bay Bancorp        30.05     -0.56
CAC     Camden National            35.80     -0.09


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