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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 10/17/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-17-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Hunt for Red October        
Market Sentiment:    Are You From Missouri 
Watch List:   Something for Longs and Shorts        

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 10-15        WE 10-08        WE 10-01         WE 9-24 
DOW     9933.38 -121.82 10055.2 -137.45 10192.6 +145.41 -237.22 
Nasdaq  1911.50 -  8.47 1919.97 - 22.23 1942.20 + 62.72 - 30.61 
S&P-100  531.80 -  6.67  538.47 -  4.64  543.11 +  8.74 - 11.43 
S&P-500 1108.20 - 13.94 1122.14 -  9.36 1131.50 + 21.39 - 18.47 
W5000  10838.67 -125.85 10964.5 - 94.18 11058.7 +220.40 -155.02 
SOX      381.37 -  8.15  389.52 - 12.39  401.91 + 19.36 -  5.95 
RUT      569.42 -  6.23  575.65 -  9.38  585.03 + 19.06 -  7.20 
TRAN    3352.68 + 16.68 3336.00 + 37.20 3298.80 + 96.69 - 55.28 
VXO       15.89           14.95           12.55           14.14 
VXN       21.80           20.69           18.91           21.10
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Hunt for Red October
by Jim Brown

Last Sunday cracks were beginning to show in the October
rally and today it would take more than Visine to get the
red out. October has lived up to its reputation for red
numbers for the indexes but good news may lie ahead. 
October is half over and hopefully it was the bad half. 

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


SPX Chart


Economically Friday was a not exciting for the bulls with
conflicting numbers once again. The bad news began with
the NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline
number fell sharply to 17.4 from 27.3 and almost completely
reversed the September gains. Since topping in July at 35.8
the index has been trending lower and suggests the economic
boom for manufacturers in New York could be coming to an
end. Shipments fell from 32.1 to 19.1, new orders fell from
26.2 to 21.2. Back orders turned negative at -2.7 from 11.7.
Employment fell to 17.6 from 20.3 and prices paid soared to
59.2 from 52.0. A positive headline number still indicates
growth but the internal components paint the real picture. 

The PPI showed rapidly rising inflation is still with us.
The prices for finished goods rose +0.1% in September and
+0.3% for the quarter. However, the headline number does
not give the true picture. Core intermediate goods rose
by +9.0% for the quarter and September was the 14th month
of consecutive gains. Non-durable goods rose +19.4% for
the 3Q. Core crude goods rose +50.3% for the quarter. Any
questions now about why the Fed is not backing off its
rate hike policy? 

Retail Sales soared much higher than expected in September
with a +1.5% headline number but in reality it was not as
good as it appeared. Automakers dumping inventory accounted
for two-thirds of the number leaving all other retailers
struggling at +0.6% and inline with the consensus estimates.
Auto dealers saw sales jump +4.2% for the month in an 
effort to dump 2004 model inventory. Building supply stores
saw a +1.4% gain mostly due to hurricane related buying.
Ironically sales at gas stations only rose +0.1% as angry
consumers cutback on driving to save money. 

Industrial Production rose only a very minor +0.1% and
well under expectations and the August number was revised
down to -0.1%. Production gains have been trending down 
since Nov-2003. Manufacturing fell -0.3% and August was
revised down to only a gain of +0.2% from a previously
reported +0.5% gain. Capacity Utilization fell across the
board with Durable Goods slipping to only 73.2%. This means
more than 25% of capacity is idle due to lack of demand. 
Low utilization means no pricing power as companies fight
for market share just to keep plants running rather than
increase profits. 

Business Inventories rose +0.7% but slowed from their pace
from the prior month. Sales rose to match the inventory
and the balance appears to be holding. The low rate of
inventory build may be beneficial to manufacturers who
are avoiding buildups where possible but it is detrimental
to the GDP. In Q2 the inventory gains added +78 basis 
points to the GDP but for Q3 it could be a negative 
number as the rate of growth slows. 

You may recall I cautioned about the Consumer Sentiment on
Thursday night. Friday's report showed sentiment falling
sharply to 87.5 from last months 94.2. This is the lowest
level since March-2003 and not a good sign for the future.
This was the sharpest one-month decline since February.
Consumer outlook for the future fell from 88.0 to 79.6 and
the first time under 80 since April-2003. The reasons given
for this sudden drop in sentiment were higher gas prices, 
negative economic comments from the Kerry campaign, falling
markets, slow job growth and earnings guidance for 2005. 
This is amazing since the survey was done before the high
profile company specific guidance began to appear. Consumers
are beginning to believe analysts that growth for all of 
2005 could be only +2-3%. 

The markets on Friday opened up slightly but hesitantly
and walked the flat line until the text of the Greenspan
speech on oil hit the wires. The speech went into great
historical depth explaining why current oil prices did not
worry him and there was an immediate spike in equities and
drop in bonds. Clearly an asset allocation program triggered
on the positive comments but the impact was not lasting and
the bonds and equities returned to the prior levels before
the day was out. 

Ten-year yield chart

 
Dow Chart


Crude Oil Chart


  
The main point of the Greenspan speech was a lack of worry
about oil prices based on historical trends. Oil dipped
slightly as the speech was delivered live but promptly
rebounded to trade at $55 and close at another new high
at $54.93. Why do you think this happened? Mr. financial
himself just said oil was not a problem and not to worry.

After reading the entire text of the Greenspan speech I 
was struck by the complete divergence from present day 
reality that appears to be evident in his thinking. He 
suggests that new technology, cheaper fuels and better 
oil recovery methods will delay the depletion of all oil
reserves until 2050. While that may be true the oil crisis
will reach epic proportions well before the last drop of 
oil is extracted from the ground in 2050. 

Currently emerging economies like India and China only 
use a fraction of the oil consumed by the U.S. The U.S. 
has a population of 290 million and we consume about 22
million barrels of oil per day. China has a population 
of 1.3 billion, four times the size of the U.S. China 
only consumes 6 million barrels per day but that rate 
of consumption is expanding rapidly. It is a well known
fact that emerging economies consume more oil per capita
during their growth phase than fully developed countries.
China is currently exploding from its agrarian society 
and rapidly improving the life style of its population. 
However China is still well behind the industrialization
levels of Korea and Japan. Both Japan and Korea currently
consume 16 bbl per person per year. If China only brought
the coastal 1/3 of its population to the current economic
and technological levels of Japan/Korea it would increase
China's consumption to more than 20 MBpd. That is the 
equivalent of adding the production of two Saudi Arabia's
operating at full capacity to the daily global production.
It is just not going to happen. Add in the explosion in
India and other emerging economies and global demand 
could increase by 30 Mbpd over the next 10 years. 

Greenspan made a big deal about the 100 billion barrel 
increase in reserves over the last decade while at the 
same time 250 billion barrels were consumed. What is 
wrong with this picture? It is a sure bet that the
current decade will NOT add 100 billion barrels to 
known reserves. If that additional consumption of that
30 Mbpd projection above came to pass it would increase
annual consumption by over 11 billion barrels and that
does not include increases in consumption by already 
developed countries. 

In other words reserves increased at only 40% of the 
rate of consumption over the decade of 1990-2000 with 
the advent of deeper drilling, monster offshore wells,
and a vast improvement in recovery technologies. 
Consumption increased over 50% during the same period. 
Current annual consumption is 31 billion barrels. Add
in the 11 billion in expected new consumption from just
the emerging economies and increases in existing economies
and consumption in the current decade could spike to 500
billion barrels. If we only found 100 BB of new reserves
from 1990-2000 with the worldwide race to locate those
reserves then it should be clear to everyone that we
are not going to find another 500 BB between 2000-2010.

The outlook is clear to anyone that wants to take the 
time to think it through. The easy oil has been found 
and the major fields are already drying up. New technology
and additional discoveries will add to known reserves but
at a far smaller pace than current reserves are being 
consumed. If we did find another 100BB over this decade
it would be less than a three year supply at current
demand levels.  

I believe the Greenspan speech was crafted to DOWNPLAY 
the current crisis and attempt to TALK DOWN PRICES. The
Fed is famous for this in multiple markets over the years.
When the Fed finds itself being pushed aside by current
events they will always try to talk the problem away. 
When David confronts problems of Goliath proportions the
first weapon of choice for Greenspan is a word barrage.
By the time the current scenario plays out Greenspan will
be retired and new presidents in power. This attempt to 
talk down oil prices is a stop gap measure to stop the 
bleeding. The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a 
$20 billion per month undeclared tax on consumers from 
the increase in oil over the last six months. $20 billion
of valuable purchasing power evaporating each month. You 
do the math. Greenspan is simply trying to apply a 
tourniquet to the wound to stop the economic bleeding. 
If he could talk down prices, a feat OPEC and Saudi Arabia
have been unable to do, then the pressure would ease on the
administration and on the economy. Unfortunately those who
understand the problem and have no vested interest in 
Greenspan's economic game plan considered his statements
for all of an hour and then pushed prices to another new
high. Greenspan is firing blanks in this battle. Back in
July he called high-energy prices as a "transitory uptick".
Friday he warned that further increases in oil prices
could continue and cause more long term damage to the 
economy and had already subtracted -0.75 off the 2004 
GDP. Of course these negative points were glossed over
by the media. 

Every day we are coming closer to the day when oil 
production peaks forever and begins the downhill slide
to that last drop in 2050. That day is currently expected
in 2007-2008 depending on how fast China grows. Once 
demand exceeds production and that could come over the 
next three years, the price of oil will explode higher.
Once orders exceed capacity the bidding war for available
production will skyrocket. The crisis will not be when 
oil is gone in 2050 but when the demand exceeds production
on a daily basis. $55 oil will quickly become $100 oil or
even higher. Demand and production are balanced very 
precariously today and the prices are at all time highs. 
What if demand only exceeded production by a million 
barrels per day? That is less than a 1% increase in 
demand at current levels. One million bbls per day, 
7 mil per week, 21 mil per month. Get the picture? Oil
sales will become a bidding war and price will become 
less of a concern than actually getting delivery. 
$5 gas by 2010? I would NOT bet against it.

The chief economist for Conoco Phillips told a business
audience on Thursday that oil prices would remain high
due to a "permanent structural change" in the industry. 
The economist said the cost of finding new oil reserves
is over $30 a barrel and rising sharply due to the 
difficulty of prospecting and drilling in remote 
locations. They cited unrest in oil-rich areas, 
constraints on global production capacity and rapidly
increasing worldwide demand. I would assume the chief
economist for Conoco probably knows what they are 
talking about. 

I do believe oil prices will moderate after the election
but it should be considered a long term buying opportunity
for those stocks that have large proven reserves. The
longer that oil stays in the ground the more valuable
it becomes. Five years from now I believe we will look
back at $50 oil just like we look back at 99 cent gas
today. If this scenario comes to pass then a global
recession will eventually appear. When countries can't
get or afford oil their economic expansion will slow. 
I reported last week that Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
had risen +103% over the last 33 months. A recession
has never failed to appear when the index rose over 
+55% in any 30-month period. Bulls will always claim
this time is different until they are run over by 
reality. Need proof? Oil hit an all time high of $55 
today and the Dow transports are nearing a four year high.
Delta is losing $6.78 million per day and will eventually
follow the other carriers into bankruptcy. All airlines
are reportedly losing more than $1 billion per month on
fuel costs. Fuel is the largest expense for the 
transportation sector. Compare these charts and tell
me there is not something drastically wrong with this
picture. 

Transport/Crude comparison charts




The markets struggled all week and the insurance implosion
on Thursday stifled any chance of a recovery. $40 billion
in market cap was wiped out in a matter of minutes. Spitzer
managed in one fell swoop to punish stockholders of those
companies to the tune of a 30% to 40% loss in their
retirement holdings. Millions of investors suffered 
irreparable harm for the sins of the few. Did he really
have to go public in such a visible manner? Could he have
worked with them in private to achieve a settlement that
would have left their market cap relatively intact? 
Absolutely! I believe we have a prosecutor gone wild and
living for that next jolt of adrenaline that the public
limelight brings regardless of how many investors are hurt.
Shame on you Spitzer. Lose the ego and get a conscience.

On Friday the Dow rebounded off its two month lows and
struggled in vain to hold its intraday Greenspan gains.
By the close it retreated back to within 30 points of
the 9900 level and appeared tired from the effort. The
Dow will start off on Monday with two major earnings
hurdles with MMM and IBM both reporting. MMM before the
open and IBM after the close. Those are just two of the
over 500 companies to report next week. 

There is a very heated discussion underway on the 
potential for a retest of the lows for the year at 9783
and the potential for that retest to hold. Should the 
Friday rebound from 9900 hold and we move higher from 
here it would be a higher low and a bullish event. There
is a growing group of technical analysts that think it 
will not hold and a lower low is in the cards. Technicians
feel future events such as the election are already priced
into the market and the potential for a lasting post 
election rebound is slim. The sentiment traders feel 
the current October dip was a normal event as will be
a coming pre/post election rally. Those keeping statistics
point to the election trends for the last 100 years and
suggest the growing Kerry lead predicts an incumbent 
defeat and the potential for the Dow to retest 9000 
rather than 9800. 

The bottom line is the market is very confused. Historical
trends are failing. Oil is at all time highs and showing
no indications of falling. Bulls are in denial of the
earnings deceleration ahead and mutual funds are piling 
up cash while waiting for a sign of normalcy to return. 
Buffett has 38% of his assets in cash and many funds are
adding to cash instead of equities. Bonds are continuing
to rise and long term rates are falling despite an 
aggressive rate hike program by the Fed. Times are 
very confusing and traders do not know where to jump.   

When all else fails we always have to drop back to the
technicals for directional hints baring an external event.
The Dow must hold 9800 or all bullish bets are off and
a new game plan will have to be drawn up. Resistance on
any continued Monday bounce is 10000 with 10100 a close
backup. The Nasdaq returned to support at 1900 on Friday
and managed to rebound to 1925 resistance on the midday
asset allocation program. Overall the Nasdaq is clinging
to the relatively higher ground although still in a long
term downtrend. 1850 would be dip support and 1965 strong
resistance. 

When the Dow/Nasdaq are giving conflicting signals we
need to look at a broader market indicator. The Wilshire
5000 has gravitated around the 10750 level since January
and that is right where it started the year. The Wilshire
has held up remarkably well compared to the Dow and looks
more like the Nasdaq in performance. When determining 
broad market support level the 50dma on the Wilshire has
been both support and resistance on many occasions all
year. The current horizontal support is 10750 and the
50dma is 10785. I believe this 10750-10785 is the crucial
market level to watch next week. As long as we remain 
above it I will remain bullish but a break below would
turn me bearish in a flash. If the Wilshire decided to
return to the downtrend support since January it could
easily project back to 10000 and a -800 point drop. I
do not expect that but it would be the worst case. By
watching the Wilshire ($DWC) it removes the weighting
impact of individual stocks like AIG in the Dow. AIG 
was responsible for nearly two thirds of the Dow loss
on Thursday. 

Wilshire 5000 Chart - Support/Resistance

  
Wilshire 5000 Chart – overview




Other considerations include the SOX where 380 support
is beginning to look weak and a break there could easily
drop quickly to 350. The Russell is holding above support
at 560 and doing well considering this is small cap shuffle
month. The 100dma is trending up at the 560 level and time
is expiring on the October calendar. 

Russell Chart




Taken together the best picture of the market can best
be seen by watching the Wilshire at 10750, Russell at
560 and the SOX at 380. The weakest being the SOX at
380 with short-term risk to 350. 

Everybody always wants me to boil down the analysis to 
a sentence or two. If it was that simple I would not 
need to write the complete wrap. In my opinion there 
is a huge pile of cash on the sidelines. Indecision is
rampant and over the last nine months we have been moving
in the tightest trading range (SPX) in decades. Hedge
funds are losing money, mutual funds are breaking even
and nobody in the fund management business is making 
any money. Everyone has a vested interest in pushing
the market higher once the election is over regardless
of the winner. With the abundance of cash available the
potential for an end of year jam job is tremendous. I
believe that despite bad earnings and the fear of ever
increasing oil the fund managers will try to produce an
end of year rally in hopes of getting to January with a
profit and then pop the parachutes. Obviously if oil
continues to break new levels it will be difficult but
some of the current speculation in oil is based on
election risk and the potential for a terrorist event.

Once the election is over the speculation will ease and
oil should revert to a lower level. Those analysts not 
on crack expect something in the mid $40 range. This 
will give fund managers something to base their buying
on and the end of year rally becomes a self fulfilling
prophecy. We are already seeing profit taking in the
energy stocks despite new all time highs in oil. Funds
are trying to raise more cash while slipping quietly 
out of the energy door. I also believe there is enough
disbelief in the market that should a rally actually
appear the majority of traders will either wait on the
sidelines or continue to try and short it. Both groups
will end up chasing prices higher and contributing to
its success. 

This is of course just my humble opinion and by printing
this commentary it will make a suitable substitute for 
newspaper on the bottom of your birdcage or as a starter
stuffing for your next fireplace fire.  No one can predict
exactly what will happen over the next twelve trading days
until the election but hopefully the scenario I laid out
above will bear some resemblance to the actual events.
The alternate bearish scenario of a Wilshire retest of 
support at 9300 is more than we want to imagine tonight.
The negative ramifications would be enormous and best
left to my Halloween commentary two Sunday's from now.
Nightmare on Wall Street? Let's hope I don't have to 
write it.    

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown

Was this commentary helpful to you?
Your comments are always appreciated. 



================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

 Are You From Missouri?
- J. Brown

The state of Missouri is called the "show me" state.  Looking at 
the markets this weekend I anticipate a lot of investors will 
adopt this Missourian mindset.  October is known for a volatile 
month and a number of pundits and investors have been expecting a 
rebound in the latter half of the month.  With the S&P 500 index 
resting just north of support near 1100 and Industrials slipping 
toward support and its August lows near 9800 it only seems 
natural that traders are going to want the markets to "show" them 
the rebound before they'll believe.  Fortunately, these levels 
offer just such an opportunity for a bounce but on the other side 
of the coin we're that much closer to a bearish breakdown.  

The perpetual issue on everyone's mind these days is oil.  With 
record oil prices at $55 a barrel acting as a huge undeclared tax 
on consumers it should be no surprise to see the economy slowing.  
Surprisingly the September retail sales data came in strong on 
Friday but the rest of the economic data was mixed.  Over the 
last few months most of the major economic reports have been 
showing a slow down in the country's growth so it shouldn't be 
any big surprise.  

The second major issue that is clouding over Wall Street is the 
upcoming election and the terror-risk it represents.  There is 
less than three weeks to go before the Nov. 2nd presidential 
elections.  First of all the markets hate uncertainty and it 
seems we, as a nation, have never been more uncertain about who 
to elect.  Actually, a better way to say that would be that we've 
never been more divided and the outcome is anyone's guess right 
now.  To make matters worse there is a lingering concern that 
terrorists will try and disrupt the election process with some 
sort of attack like the one that occurred in Spain.  If we can 
get past the election without an event then stocks have a good 
chance of moving higher with a huge relief rally and the removal 
of presidential uncertainty.

Investors also have to digest the next week of Q3 earnings and 
it's a big week!  Wall Street will wade through almost 180 
announcements of the S&P 500 components on top of all the smaller 
corporations announcing.  Concerns over the rate of earnings 
growth in the fourth quarter and 2005 will be front and center 
this week.  Look for MMM, IBM and LXK to announce on Monday.  
Tuesday brings EMC, F, MCD and MO.  Wednesday we'll hear AMR, 
COF, CL, CHIR, GLW, EBAY, DAL, GD, HON, JPM, and PFE.  Thursday's 
major announcements are AIG, AMZN, CAT, GOOG, MRK and MSFT.  



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9497
Current     :  9933

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10080
 50-dma: 10112 
200-dma: 10287


S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1108

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1123
 50-dma: 1108
200-dma: 1120


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1430

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1444
 50-dma: 1394
200-dma: 1441


-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.04 -1.39
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.89 -1.24
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.80 -0.50 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.88      1,192,356     1,045,784
Equity Only    0.76        905,837       691,086
OEX            1.32         53,186        70,387
QQQ            4.09         24,094        98,667


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64.3    - 0     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    44.0    - 1     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   53.3    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       62.2    - 0     Bear Correction
S&P 100       60.0    - 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.18
10-dma: 1.15
21-dma: 1.09
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1945      1760
Decliners     858      1187

New Highs      86        51
New Lows       32        44

Up Volume   1187M      789M
Down Vol.    775M      702M

Total Vol.  2001M     1623M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/12/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders continue to hedge their bets on the large
S&P contracts as longs and shorts move closer to parity.  Small
traders didn't move much money either but remain net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
09/21/04      404,746   425,560   (20,814)   (2.5%)
09/28/04      404,773   434,441   (29,668)   (3.5%)
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)
10/12/04      423,472   436,780   (13,308)   (1.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/21/04      134,943   108,036    26,907    11.1%
09/28/04      135,317   107,173    28,144    11.6%
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%
10/12/04      139,175   113,903    25,272     9.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Uh-oh!  This could spell trouble for stocks.  Commecials,
who are normally on the "right" side of the trade are upping
their short positions.  Meanwhile, small traders decreased
their short positions leaving them strongly net bullish.
This alone is a contrarian indicator for a market top.
Just remember that these readings were taken before the 
Wednesday-Thursday sell-off this past week.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
09/21/04      213,014   397,844   (184,830)  (30.2%)
09/28/04      226,020   420,714   (194,694)  (30.1%)
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)
10/12/04      258,457   517,805   (259,348)  (33.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/21/04      256,315     60,275   196,040    61.9%
09/28/04      262,501     68,255   194,246    58.7%
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%
10/12/04      309,720     62,502   247,218    66.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders aren't changing their bets.  They remain
net bullish on the NDX.  Small trades have significantly 
reduced positions in both longs and shorts but remain 
strongly net bearish, which of course is bullish for the
NDX if you're a contrarian.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
09/21/04       54,530     30,827    23,703   27.7%
09/28/04       55,045     32,319    22,726   26.0%
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%
10/12/04       52,572     32,775    19,797   23.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
09/21/04        7,417    25,821   (18,404)  (55.3%)
09/28/04       10,078    22,917   (12,839)  (38.9%)
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)
10/12/04        8,756    24,400   (15,644)  (47.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders reduced both long and short positions
but remained net bullish.  In contrast small traders
significantly increased both their longs and their shorts on
the Dow Industrials but in essence remain rather neutral.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
09/21/04       30,816    27,200    3,616       6.2%
09/28/04       29,714    26,877    2,837       5.0%
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
10/12/04       24,150    22,849    1,301       2.7%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
09/21/04        4,467     6,748   (2,281)   (20.3%)
09/28/04        5,143     5,988   (  845)   ( 7.6%)
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)
10/12/04        8,814     9,167   (  353)   ( 1.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

 Third Wave Tech. - TWTI - close: 8.02 change: +0.58

WHAT TO WATCH: We came very close to adding TWTI to the play list 
this weekend as a high-risk/reward play.  The stock has been 
undergoing steady accumulation.  It's easy to see with the 
rallies higher on strong volume, then the consolidation sideways 
or down and then another step higher.  TWTI looks poised to 
breakout over the $8.05-8.10 level and charge toward $9.00.  The 
P&F chart is very bullish with a long-term $17 target.




---

Keystone Automotive - KEYS - close: 20.42 change: -1.31

WHAT TO WATCH: KEYS is breaking down to new lows.  The stock was 
hammered in August after the company's unsatisfactory earnings 
report.  Each rebound since has produced a lower high.  On Friday 
the stock sank another 6 percent to break support at $21.00 after 
the company said it would halt the sale of two headlight models 
due to the lamps not meeting federal requirements.  This looks 
very bearish with the strong volume.  The next level of support 
could be the $18.00-17.50 range.  Watch out for the low average 
volume.




---

Supervalu Inc - SVU - close: 29.42 change: +0.92

WHAT TO WATCH: SVU is another candidate we strongly considered 
adding to the weekend play list.  The stock rallied sharply on 
Thursday after its earnings report but the rally failed at $29.25 
and its simple 200-dma.  Friday witnessed some strong follow 
through with another 3.2 percent and a close over the 200-dma.  
We like how its weekly chart's technicals (RSI and stochastics) 
are bullish and how its weekly chart's MACD is nearing a new buy 
signal.  Aggressive traders may want to consider positions now.  
More conservative types can wait for a breakout over $30.00.  The 
P&F chart is incredibly bullish with a $70 target.  We would 
initially target $33.




---

Flextronics - FLEX - close: 12.53 change: -0.14

WHAT TO WATCH: It looks like semiconductor maker FLEX is 
beginning to fade again.  The oversold rally from the August lows 
has slowly rolled over under the $14 level and its simple 100-
dma.  Now its MACD is in a sell signal and the stock is testing 
support at the $12.50 mark and the simple 50-dma.  Traders can 
choose their entry point.  A drop under minor support at $12.22 
or a drop under $12.00 look like decent triggers to open bearish 
plays.  Watch for earnings on Oct. 25th.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

NFLX $10.30 -7.13 - Ouch!  NFLX dropped 40 percent on Friday.  
What are the odds of an oversold bounce?

BK $30.95 +0.71 - BK is looking bullish with a bounce from $30.

KSWS $20.23 +0.99 - Watch KSWS for a breakout over resistance at 
$21.00.

USG $21.22 +2.12 - The high volume breakout over resistance at 
$20.00 could be worth watching (or trading).

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-17-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     SWIR, NVLS
  Bullish Play Updates:  MACR
  
Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     BG, BC
  Bearish Play Updates:  LSCP, PSSI, TIF


High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  MLNM


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 24.22 change: -0.28 stop: 26.26

Company Description:
Novellus Systems, Inc., an S&P 500 company, manufactures, markets 
and services advanced deposition, surface preparation and 
chemical mechanical planarization equipment for today's advanced 
integrated circuits. Our products are designed for high-volume 
production of advanced, leading-edge semiconductor devices at the 
lowest possible cost. Headquartered in San Jose, Calif., with 
subsidiaries throughout the United States, as well as in the 
United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy,
 Israel, India, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and 
Taiwan. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
NVLS is not looking so hot.  The stock's rebound from the 
September lows stopped dead after filling the gap down from July.  
That was early October.  The stock began to drift toward the 
bottom of its new rising channel and then broke it.  The 
downdraft was fueled by heavy volume as investors reacted to 
NVLS' earnings report.  Earnings weren't so bad but the company 
issued a very downbeat forecast for the next quarter.  A few 
analysts tried to downplay the negative conference call but the 
stock looks vulnerable to more selling.  The daily chart's MACD 
is in a new sell signal.  Daily and weekly RSI and stochastics 
are bearish.  The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $19 
target.  There is possible support at $23.00 but we don't think 
it will hold.  Our target is the $20.00 region.  We'll start the 
play with a stop loss above Thursday's high at $26.26.  The major 
risks this week is any huge upside surprise in the SEMI book-to-
bill report on Monday or earnings reports from rivals in the 
sector.  Keep an eye on the SOX index.  If it can breakdown under 
the 370 level it will help pull NVLS lower.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on October 17 at $24.22 
Gain since picked:      - 0.00
Earnings Date         10/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      5.0 million 



---

Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 15.60 change: -0.60 stop: 17.15

Company Description:
Sierra Wireless is a leader in delivering highly differentiated 
wireless solutions that enable our customers to improve their 
productivity and lifestyle. Sierra Wireless develops and markets 
the AirCard, the industry-leading wireless PC card line for 
portable computers; embedded modules for OEM wireless 
applications; the MP line of rugged vehicle-mounted connectivity 
solutions; and Voq, a line of mobile phones with easy-to-use, 
secure software solutions for mobile professionals.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like SWIR because the stock has been a consistent loser over 
the summer and fall months and shares are poised to breakdown 
under significant support for another leg lower.  It's true.  
Investor confidence has dimmed after SWIR lost Palmone as its 
customer and investors are worried about growing competition for 
some of SWIR's products.  Yet short-term we're focusing on the 
technicals.  RSI and stochastics are already bearish and its MACD 
just rolled over into a new sell signal.  The P&F chart shows a 
clear breakdown and points to an $11.50 target.  We are going to 
use a TRIGGER to open this play.  Currently SWIR is testing 
support at its September lows of $15.50.  We'll use a TRIGGER at 
$15.45 to open the play.  More conservative traders may want to 
wait for more confirmation and use a trigger under the $15.00 
mark, which could still be round-number support.  Our target is 
the $11-10 region but wherever SWIR ends up we plan to exit 
before its Oct. 27th earnings report.  If you're comfortable with 
the short-term time frame then don't play it.  We'll use a stop 
loss at $17.15 to begin.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:      - 0.00
Earnings Date         10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      1.9 million 





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


 Macromedia - MACR - close: 22.39 change: -0.15 stop: 21.40*new*

Attention!  We are preparing to exit.  MACR's earnings report has 
been moved up from the last week of October to this Wednesday, 
October 20th.  Since we don't want to hold over the report that 
means we need to exit on Tuesday afternoon.  Fortunately, MACR 
held up very well during the NASDAQ's decline on Wednesday and 
Thursday last week.  Hopefully with some decent relative strength 
MACR can see some kind of bounce back to $23.00 and potentially 
toward our target at $23.50. We are raising our stop loss to 
$21.40.  We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on October 03 at $20.85 
Gain since picked:      + 1.54
Earnings Date         10/27/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      867 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Brunswick Corp - BC - close: 45.70 change: +1.01 stop: 44.64

Company Description:
Headquartered in Lake Forest, Ill., Brunswick Corporation 
endeavors to instill "Genuine Ingenuity"(TM) in all its leading 
consumer brands, including Mercury and Mariner outboard engines; 
Mercury MerCruiser sterndrives and inboard engines; MotorGuide 
trolling motors; Teignbridge propellers; MotoTron electronic 
controls; Northstar marine electronics; Navman GPS-based 
products; IDS dealer management systems; Sea Ray, Bayliner, 
Maxum, Hatteras, Meridian, Sealine, Bermuda, Ornvik, Savage and 
Uttern pleasure boats; Baja high- performance boats; Arvor, 
Boston Whaler and Trophy offshore fishing boats; Crestliner, 
Lowe, Lund and Princecraft aluminum fishing, deck and pontoon 
boats; Attwood marine parts and accessories; Land 'N' Sea marine 
parts and accessories distributor; Life Fitness, Hammer Strength 
and ParaBody fitness equipment; Brunswick bowling centers, 
equipment and consumer products; Brunswick billiards tables; and 
Valley-Dynamo pool, Air Hockey and foosball tables.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
When you look at BC's daily chart you'll probably have one of two 
different opinions.  One opinion is that we've missed the move, 
the stock is too extended, its MACD is in a sell signal and it 
looks like a short on any weakness.  The other opinion is 
probably that BC has tons of relative strength is bouncing from 
old resistance/new support as traders buy the dip and short-term 
technicals are in a new buy signal.  Today we're subscribing to 
the second, bullish opinion.  The stock has been on a roll since 
its July earnings report.  BC beat estimates by 3 cents and 
raised guidance for the fourth quarter.  One could strongly argue 
that any such Q4 increase is baked into the stock.  However, we 
suspect that there is still some short-term strength left before 
its October 28th earnings report.  That gives us a short 
timeframe to make this play because we're not going to hold over 
the event.  We are going to suggest longs at current levels with 
a tight stop under Thursday's low.  Our immediate target is $50.  
If you're more conservative and prefer a little more confirmation 
on the bounce then wait for BC to trade over $46.00 or even hit 
new highs above $46.93.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on October 17 at $45.70 
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      717 thousand



---

Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 41.96 change: +1.08 stop: 39.75

Company Description:
Bunge Limited (http://www.Bunge.com) is an integrated, global 
agribusiness and food company operating in the farm-to-consumer 
food chain. Founded in 1818 and headquartered in White Plains, 
New York, Bunge has 25,000 employees and locations in 30 
countries. Bunge is the world's leading oilseed processor, the 
largest producer and supplier of fertilizers to farmers in South 
America and the world's leading seller of bottled vegetable oils 
to consumers. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like BG for its fresh bullish breakout over major resistance 
at $41.50 on huge volume three times the average.  The stock has 
been a consistent winner during the last four weeks and traders 
looking for a place to put their money may be turning to relative 
strength stocks like BG.  The company has smashed earnings 
estimates the last two quarters and back in July they raised 
their guidance for the current quarter (announcing 10/28).  The 
company just announced a cash dividend of 13 cents a share 
payable on November 30th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of 
Nov. 16th.  We do not think this is the reason for the bullish 
breakout but it doesn't hurt.  The P&F chart shows a fresh 
triple-top breakout buy signal with a $44 target.  We believe BG 
can reach the $46-47 region and hopefully it will do it before 
its October 28th earnings report, which will exit in front of.  
We will admit that we may be a little optimistic here and more 
conservative traders can lower their targets to $44-45.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on October 17 at $41.96 
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      625 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

LaserScope - LSCP - close: 19.34 change: +0.28 stop: 21.01      

The $19.00 level is turning out to be stronger support than we 
anticipated.  LSCP has been consolidating above this mark for the 
last four sessions.  Bears obviously need to see or produce a 
breakdown.  Our strategy hasn't changed but readers may want to 
wait for a new low under $18.80 before considering new positions.  
Fortunately, LSCP is still stuck under its trend of lower highs.  
We're a little surprised that LSCP hasn't traded lower given the 
declines in medical device maker heavy-weights SYK and ZMH.  It's 
probably because LSCP is more of a specialized producer.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on September 22 at $19.85 
Gain since picked:        - 0.51
Earnings Date           07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        477 thousand



---


PSS World Medical - PSSI - cls:  9.60 chg: +0.02 stop: 10.11     

It's been a slow procedure but PSSI has declined about eight 
percent from our entry point.  Steady selling has produced a very 
clear trend of lower highs.  We're happy with our stop loss at 
$10.11 but we'll be a lot happier if PSSI can break down under 
the $9.50 level, where shares have held firm for the past two 
sessions.  We're going to alter our strategy a bit.  We're going 
to target a drop to $9.15, the October 5th low.  If PSSI trades 
that low we'll exit. We have to worry about earnings soon, which 
will come out on October 27th.  If you're looking for a new 
position consider a failed rally near/under $9.90.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on September 20 at $10.44
Gain since picked:        - 0.84
Earnings Date           07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        734 thousand



---

Tiffany & Co - TIF - close: 28.77 change: -0.10 stop: 31.51

TIF is our new bearish candidate from Wednesday.  The stock has 
been a consistent relative strength loser.  The daily chart has a 
very consistent trend of lower highs and its technicals are 
currently in another sell signal.  Given the long-term trend 
shown on Wednesday and the current short-term trend everything 
seems to be pointing lower for TIF. There was no reaction on 
Friday to the retail sales report.  Traders are free to choose 
new positions here or look for a bounce back toward $30 and short 
the failed rally.  Our target is the $25-24 region.

Annotated Chart:




Picked on October 13 at $29.00
Gain since picked:      - 0.23
Earnings Date         11/11/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      1.3 million 




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Millenium Pharma - MLNM - cls: 11.82 chg: +0.08 stop: 12.81

Heads up!  This may be another entry point to short MLNM.  We 
added MLNM to the play list a week ago with a trigger to short 
the stock at $11.99.  We wanted to see MLNM breakdown under the 
simple 50-dma and the $12.00 mark.  That occurred on Wednesday 
with a bearish engulfing candlestick.  Thursday produced some 
follow through on the move.  Now Friday is showing a little 
oversold bounce but the rebound failed Friday afternoon at the 
$12.00 level.  MLNM looks poised to hit new five-week lows next 
week.  Just remember that we want to be out of the play by its 
earnings around Oct. 28th.  Keep an eye on the BTK biotech index 
as it can influence trading in MLNM.  The BTK looks vulnerable 
but it's also a little short-term oversold itself.  The 510-515 
region should be new overhead resistance.

Annotated chart:

 

Picked on October 13 at $11.99 
Gain since picked:      - 0.17
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      2.7 million 





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-17-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of October 18th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

=========================================
Market Watch for the week of October 18th
=========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

MDC  M.D.C.Holdings       Mon, Oct 11  After the market      2.73

MMM  3M Company           Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.98
ABAX ABAXIS Inc           Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.07
ASD  American Standard    Mon, Oct 18  ------ n/a ------    0.67
BNK  Bank North           Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.59
B    Barnes Group         Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.42
BLK  BlackRock, Inc.      Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.56
BRO  Brown & Brown        Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.43
CATY Cathay General       Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.45
CEN  Ceridian             Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.23
CHKP Check Point Softwre  Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.25
CKFR CheckFree            Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.26
CGNX Cognex               Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.24
DPH  Delphi               Mon, Oct 18  Before the market   -0.12
DSL  Downey Financial     Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.94
ET   E*Trade Financial    Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.18
EGP  EastGroup Properties Mon, Oct 18  ------ n/a ------    0.63
RE   Everest Re Group     Mon, Oct 18  After the market    -0.07
FRX  Forest Labs          Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.76
HAS  Hasbro, Inc.         Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.51
ICBC Independence Bank    Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.76
IBM  Intl Business Mach.  Mon, Oct 18  After the market     1.14
JCOM J2 Global Comm.      Mon, Oct 18  ------ n/a ------    0.31
JDAS JDA Software         Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.03
KFT  Kraft Foods          Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.45
LXK  Lexmark Intl         Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.98
LNCR Lincare Holdings     Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.69
MAT  Mattel               Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.60
MVK  Maverick Tube Corp   Mon, Oct 18  After the market     1.36
OMM  OMI Corp             Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.51
PRK  Park National        Mon, Oct 18  ------ n/a ------    1.78
PCH  Potlach              Mon, Oct 18  After the market     1.11
PP   Prentiss Properties  Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.77
SXT  Sensient Tech.       Mon, Oct 18  ------ n/a ------    0.43
STLD Steel Dynamics       Mon, Oct 18  After the market     1.96
TXN  Texas Instruments    Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.27
SWK  The Stanley Works    Mon, Oct 18  After the market     0.71
TXCC TranSwitch           Mon, Oct 18  After the market    -0.16
TUP  Tupperware           Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.08
GWW  W.W.Grainger         Mon, Oct 18  Before the bell      0.71


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AKZOY Akzo Nobel N.V.     Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    n/a
MO   Altria Group, Inc.   Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.25
AMTD Ameritrade           Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.11
ASO  AmSouth Bancorp      Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.47
AMCC Applied Micro Circ.  Tue, Oct 19  After the market    -0.01
ARB  Arbitron Inc         Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.61
ARMHY ARM Holdings        Tue, Oct 19  During the market    n/a
ASPT Aspect Comm.         Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.16
AVY  Avery Dennison Corp  Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.76
BCC  Boise Cascade        Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.59
BSX  Boston Scientific    Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.46
CHRW C.H.Robinson Worldw  Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.37
BCR  C.R.Bard Inc         Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.58
CACH Cache, Inc.          Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------   -0.04
ELY  Callaway Golf        Tue, Oct 19  After the market    -0.45
CAPX Capital Crossing Bnk Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.44
CACS Carrier Access       Tue, Oct 19  After the market    -0.03
CASB Cascade Financial    Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.33
CDWC Computer Centers Inc Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.74
CPS  ChoicePoint Inc      Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.43
CMA  Comerica Inc         Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.05
CMC  Commercial Metals Co Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.73
CAL  Continental Airlines Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------   -0.17
CPO  Corn Products Intl   Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.58
CYMI Cymer Inc            Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.39
DO   Diamond Offshore     Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.05
DPZ  Domino's Inc         Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.22
ELON Echelon Corp         Tue, Oct 19  After the market    -0.03
ERTS Electronic Arts      Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.35
EMC  E M C Corp           Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.09
ETH  Ethan Allan          Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.50
FBC  Flagstar Bancorp     Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.64
F    Ford Motor Co        Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.14
FCX  Freeport-McMoran     Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.13
GNTX Gentex               Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.32
GAP  Great Atlantic Tea   Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell     -1.22
ITW  Illinois Tool Works  Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.10
RX   IMS Health           Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.30
N    Inco                 Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.89
INFA Informatica          Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.02
INTL Inter-Tel            Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.29
JAKK JAKKS Pacific Inc    Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.67
JEF  Jefferies Group      Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.44
KEA  Keane                Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.16
MAN  Manpower             Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.66
MCD  McDonalds Corp       Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.56
MDCO Medicines Co         Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.06
MRX  Medicis              Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.29
MEL  Mellon Financial     Tue, Oct 19  During the market    0.43
MNST Monster Worldwide    Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.16
MOT  Motorola Inc         Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.19
ZEUS Olympic Steel        Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    1.75
PH   Parker Hannifin      Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.83
PLT  Plantronics Inc      Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.43
PLXT PLX Technology       Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.01
PPP  Pogo Producing       Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.37
RSH  RadioShack Corp      Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.39
SAFC Safeco Corp          Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.51
SWY  Safeway Inc          Tue, Oct 19  ------ n/a ------    0.37
SAY  Satyam Computer Svcs Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.25
STX  Seagate Technology   Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.04
SOV  Sovereign Bancorp    Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.42
FON  Sprint Corp          Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.21
STN  Station Casinos      Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.44
STK  Storage Technology   Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.32
TASR Taser Intl, Inc.     Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.15
TMX  Telefonos De Mexico  Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.81
TER  Teradyne Inc         Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.23
CAKE The Cheesecake Fact. Tue, Oct 19  After the market     0.30
USB  U.S. Bancorp         Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      0.56
WFC  Wells Fargo & Co     Tue, Oct 19  Before the bell      1.06


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

NDN  99 Cents Only        Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.08
AFFX Affymetrix           Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.19
ACL  Alcon Inc.           Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.58
ALTR Altera Corp          Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.18
ABK  Ambac Financial      Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.56
AMGN Amgen                Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.62
AMR  AMR Corp             Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------   -1.51
BOL  Bausch & Lomb        Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.73
BVSN Broadvision          Wed, Oct 20  After the market    -0.09
BR   Burlington Resources Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.93
CAI  CACI Intl            Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.62
COF  Capital One Fincl.   Wed, Oct 20  After the market     1.30
CD   Cendant Corp         Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.55
CHIR Chiron               Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.06
CRUS Cirrus Logic         Wed, Oct 20  After the market    -0.04
CL   Colgate-Palmolive    Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.58
CA   Computer Associates  Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.16
GLW  Corning              Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.11
CFC  Countrywide Fincl.   Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.01
CMI  Cummins Inc          Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.50
DAL  Delta Airlines       Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------   -3.79
DBD  Diebold              Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.67
DRIV Digital River        Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.27
EK   Eastman Kodak        Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.72
EBAY eBay                 Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.27
ELUX Electrolux           Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.97
FLIR FLIR Systems         Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.45
GD   General Dynamics     Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.50
GENZ Genzyme Corp         Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.45
GG   Goldcorp             Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.08
GLK  Great Lakes Chem.    Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.22
HET  Harrah's Enter.      Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.04
HON  Honeywell            Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.43
JPM  J.P.Morgan           Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.75
NITE Knight Trading       Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell     -0.03
LRW  Labor Ready          Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.29
LIN  Linens 'n Things     Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.46
MXO  Maxtor Corp          Wed, Oct 20  After the market    -0.20
MHK  Mohawk Industries    Wed, Oct 20  After the market     1.50
NSC  Norfolk Southern     Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.54
NWAC Northwest Airlines   Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell     -0.81
ODP  Office Depot         Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.27
OSI  Outback Steakhouse   Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.52
PFCB P.F.Chang's          Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.28
PFE  Pfizer               Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.54
PMCS PMC-Sierra Inc       Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.04
PVN  Providian Financial  Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------    0.28
RBAK Redback Networks     Wed, Oct 20  ------ n/a ------   -0.18
RNWK RealNetworks         Wed, Oct 20  After the market    -0.4
RYL  Ryland Group         Wed, Oct 20  After the market     3.30
SEBL Siebel Systems       Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.05
STJ  St. Jude Medical     Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.56
SYMC Symantec             Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.39
ALL  The Allstate Corp    Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.66
BK   The Bank of New York Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.47
VRSN VeriSign, Inc.       Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.16
WM   Washington Mutual    Wed, Oct 20  After the market     0.71
WHR  Whirlpool            Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      1.52
WYE  Wyeth                Wed, Oct 20  Before the bell      0.70


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

FLWS 1-800-Flowers.com    Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell     -0.04
AGI  Alliance Gaming      Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell     -0.11
ALSC Alliance Semicond.   Thr, Oct 21  After the market    -0.10
AT   ALLTEL Corp          Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.86
AMZN Amazon.com           Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.18
AEP  American Elec Power  Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.74
AIG  American Intl Group  Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.08
AZN  AstraZeneca          Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.53
T    AT&T                 Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.43
BAX  Baxter Intl Inc      Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.42
BEBE Bebe Stores          Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.27
BHE  Benchmark Electronic Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.41
BGG  Briggs & Stratton    Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.25
BRCM Broadcom             Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.34
CZR  Caesars Entertainmt. Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.20
CAT  Caterpillar          Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.36
CLS  Celestica            Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.08
CELG Celgene              Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.19
CPWR Compuware Corp       Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.02
CBE  Cooper Industries    Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.92
COCO Corinthian Colleges  Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.18
CR   Crane                Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.52
DHR  Danaher              Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.59
DCOM Dime Community Banc  Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.31
D    Dominion Resources   Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.32
LLY  Eli Lilly & Co       Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.68
ELX  Emulex               Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.10
FDRY Foundry Networks     Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.11
GILD Gilead Sciences      Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.21
GDW  Golden West Fincl    Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    2.06
GOOG Google               Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.54
GDT  Guidant              Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.60
HSY  Hershey Foods        Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.64
IHP  IHOP                 Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.50
IR   Ingersoll-Rand       Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.16
ITT  ITT Industries       Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.15
LH   Laboratory Corp      Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.66
LEA  Lear Corp            Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.13
LM   Legg Mason           Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.76
MEDI MedImmune            Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell     -0.21
MENT Mentor Graphics      Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.07
MRK  Merck & Co           Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.73
MCHP Microchip Tech.      Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.29
MSFT Microsoft            Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.30
NUE  Nucor                Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      4.60
OO   Oakley               Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.22
OXY  Occidental Petrol.   Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.77
ODFL Old Dominion         Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.49
OSTK Overstock.com        Thr, Oct 21  After the market    -0.19
PCAR PACCAR               Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    1.35
PSFT PeopleSoft           Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.14
POT  Potash Corp.         Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.72
RBK  Reebok               Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.17
RS   Reliance Steel       Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.31
SBC  SBC Communications   Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.38
SGP  Schering-Plough      Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell     -0.01
SFA  Scientific Atlanta   Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.36
S    Sears Roebuck        Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.02
SUN  Sunoco               Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    1.40
TXT  Textron              Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.76
KO   Coca-Cola            Thr, Oct 21  After the market     0.47
MHP  McGraw-Hill Cos.     Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.56
TBL  Timberland Co        Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      1.77
TQNT Triquint Semi        Thr, Oct 21  After the market    -0.04
UNP  Union Pacific        Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.75
UPS  United Parcel Servc  Thr, Oct 21  Before the bell      0.72
WEN  Wendy's Intl         Thr, Oct 21  ------ n/a ------    0.60
YELL Yellow Roadway Corp  Thr, Oct 21  After the market     1.34


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

FO   Fortune Brands       Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell      1.18
GLGC Gene Logic Inc       Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell     -0.18
IDXX Idexx Labs           Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell      0.49
LSCC Lattice Semicond.    Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell      0.00
NXTL Nextel Comm.         Fri, Oct 22  ----- n/a ------     0.38
SLB  Schlumberger         Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell      0.53
WY   Weyerhauser Co       Fri, Oct 22  Before the bell      1.39



----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

NUE     Nucor Corp                2:1      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
PCBK    Pacific Continental Bank  5:4      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
RAVN    Raven Industries          2:1      Oct 15th    Oct 18th
CELG    Celgene Corp              2:1      Oct 22nd    Oct 25th
PDCO    Patterson Companies       2:1      Oct 22nd    Oct 25th
BGG     Briggs & Stratton         2:1      pending Oct 20th meeting
PFSB    PennFed Financial         2:1      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
ROCK    Gibraltar                 3:2      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
PNY     Piedmont Natural Gas      2:1      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
ASGR    America Service Group     3:2      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
VIDE    Video Display Corp        2:1      Oct 31st    Nov 01st

-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------
This will be one of the biggest weeks for Q3 earnings announcements.
The numbers will be flying fast and furious and traders can count
on plenty of stock-specific movement.  We'll also hear a number
of Fed-heads speaking across the country this week.  


==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 10/18/04
----------------
Semi Book-to-Bill report
NAHB housing market index

-----------------
Tuesday, 10/19/04
-----------------
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Sep.  Estimate: +0.2%  Last: +0.1%
Core CPI for September               Estimate: +0.2%  Last: +0.1%
Housing Starts for September  Estimate: 1,950K   Last: 2,000K
Building Permits for September  Estimate: 1,948K  Last: 1,969K
FOMC's Governor Poole speaks
FOMC's Chairman Greenspan speaks on mortgage and debt
FOMC's Governor Olson speaks

-------------------
Wednesday, 10/20/04
-------------------


------------------
Thursday, 10/21/04
------------------
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims  - Last: 352K
Philly Fed Index for Oct.   -Estimate: 19.2  Last: 13.4
Leading Indicators for Sep. -Estimate: -0.1% Last: -0.3%
FOMC's Governor Bernanke speaks on OIL and the ECONOMY
FOMC's Governor Yellen speaks on economic outlook


----------------
Friday, 10/22/04
----------------


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the bell the Bell
AB=  After the market the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

HBC     HSBC Holdings              80.71     +0.71
WB      Wachovia Corp              48.45     +1.16
FNM     Fannie Mae                 68.77     +0.66
NOK     Nokia Corp (ADS)           14.72     +0.52
KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            32.14     +0.57
TGT     Target Corp                46.89     +0.87

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

GFI     Gold Fields Ltd (ADR)      14.94     +1.15
GRA     W.R.Grace & Co             11.58     +1.82
CREO    Creo Inc                   12.10     +1.20

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
PGR     Progressive Corp           86.44     +1.19
RCL     Royal Caribbean Cruises    48.32     +1.55
GPC     Genuine Parts Co           39.80     +3.09
AZO     AutoZone Inc               78.27     +1.92
BG      Bunge Ltd                  41.96     +1.08
VLY     Valley Ntl Bancorp         27.67     +1.64
BYD     Boyd Gaming                29.87     +1.21

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AIG     American Intl Group        57.85     -2.15
STA     The St. Paul Travelers Co  31.94     -1.06
MMC     Marsh & Mclennan           29.20     -5.65
MET     Metlife Inc                34.99     -2.26
PRU     Prudentail Financial       44.65     -1.06
SYK     Stryker Corp               42.09     -1.84
HIG     Hartford Fincl Services    56.30     -2.10
ZMH     Zimmer Holdings            71.31     -2.17
BMET    Biomet Inc                 43.94     -1.29

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

SGTL    Sigmatel                   22.71     -1.60


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