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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 10/27/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 10-27-2004
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Recipe for a Rally
Watch List:  Semiconductors to Networking and more!


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
      10-27-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10002.03 +113.55 10018.55  9841.95 2.15 bln 1941/ 854
NASDAQ   1969.99 + 41.20  1971.28  1926.25 2.06 bln 2092/ 906
S&P 100   537.78 +  6.09   538.41   529.30   Totals 4033/1760
S&P 500  1125.40 + 14.31  1126.29  1107.43
SOX       410.90 + 14.13   411.49   397.01
RUS 2000  587.18 +  9.57   587.18   577.53
DJ TRANS 3475.20 + 39.59  3475.78  3406.64
VIX        15.72 -  0.67    16.53    15.66
VXO (VIX-O)16.13 -  0.35    17.39    15.97
VXN        21.52 -  0.95    22.65    21.21
Total Volume 4,215M
Total UpVol  3,253M
Total DnVol    915M
Total Adv  4033
Total Dcl  1760
52wk Highs  312 
52wk Lows    47
TRIN       0.56
PUT/CALL   0.70
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Recipe for a Rally 
Jane Fox

The U.S. petroleum inventories morning report was the fuel needed 
for a huge drop in oil prices and a massive climb in the stock 
market. The DOW closed above 10000 at 10002.30 for a daily rally 
of 113.80 points. But the fuel based climb was not just 
restricted to the DOW, the broader market ignited also. The SPX 
was up 14.31, or 1.3%, to 1125.40 and the Nasdaq gained 41.20, or 
2.1%, to 1969.99. On the other hand, the bond market got crushed, 
as were oil prices, which plunged $2.71 to about $52.46 a barrel 
-- a 4% plunge. 

Even though oil may have retreated today it has been on a 
meteoric rise for the last few months and one would think the 
economy would be suffering for it but economists will be the 
first to say this is just not so, oil prices haven’t held back 
the economy so far. However, that may be about to change.  
According to 54 economists who participated in a Wall Street 
Journal survey, a sustained move above $50/bbl will be the point 
when higher oil prices begin to take a greater toll on growth. A 
move into the $50 to $59-a-barrel range that is sustained for a 
complete quarter, would force them to shave their gross domestic 
product forecasts by one-half point. 

But so far, the move to $50-plus oil hasn't lasted long enough to 
cause economists to pare back their forecasts. As a matter of 
fact the economists lifted their estimates for third quarter 
growth to a 4.0% inflation-adjusted annual rate, from the 3.6% 
average forecast they made in September. 

Economic Reports:

Durable Goods:

Although economists had predicted Durable-goods orders would gain 
0.6%, the Commerce Department report for September durable goods, 
products meant to last three years or more, increased only 0.2% 
to $195.7 billion after a revised 0.6% decline in August. The 
barometer of business spending, orders for non-defense capital 
goods excluding aircraft, rose 2.6% after a 0.3% increase in 
August. The durable-goods data are some of the most volatile 
reported by the government so forecasters are wary of using 
monthly fluctuations to get a read on the overall state of the 
economy.

New Homes Sales:

Augmented by lower mortgage rates, new home sales in September 
unexpectedly rose to the third highest total on record suggesting 
housing is helping spur the economy.  The Commerce Department 
said single-family home sales rose 3.5 percent to a 1.206 million 
annual pace last month from a revised 1.165 million rate in 
August.  Sales rose in the every region except the West. The 
median selling price dropped 8.4 percent in September to $197,700 
from August's $215,900. According to the latest forecast by the 
National Association of Home Builders, sales of new homes this 
year will reach 1.164 million, surpassing last year's record 
1.089 million.

Department of Energy crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories:

In the biggest decline since Sept. 10, crude oil futures fell 
from a daily high of 55.65/bbl after an Energy Department report 
showed that U.S. stockpiles rose more than expected. In the week 
ended Oct. 22, supplies climbed 3.9 million barrels to 283.4 
million when an increase of 1 million barrels was expected. 
Inventories were 2.9 percent lower than a year earlier. 
Stockpiles of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and 
diesel, declined more than expected last week.

Fed Beige Book:

The Fed Beige book is a monthly snapshot of business conditions 
compiled from reports submitted by the Fed's 12 regional banks. 
This survey, released at 2:00EDT, showed the U.S. economy 
continued to grow in September and early October despite being 
hit by rising energy costs and increased uncertainty surrounding 
the election. It gave a picture of an economy that is moving 
ahead and even the hard-hit manufacturing sector is showing signs 
of regaining its foothold. The report found that the pace of 
activity had quickened in the Richmond and Dallas districts and 
the other five districts, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, 
Minneapolis and Kansas City, reported steady expansions. 

Central bank policy-makers use this report when they next meet to 
decide whether to raise interest rates or not. Most economists 
believe that they will continue to raise rates to make sure that 
economy does not get overheated and cause inflation. 

Earnings Reports:

In its fiscal first quarter, Procter & Gamble's (PG) net profit 
rose 14% on volume growth and a net gain from selling its juice 
business. The company also maintained its fiscal 2005 guidance 
although costs have been increasing. PG posted a net income of $2 
billion, or 73 cents a share, up from $1.76 billion, or 63 cents 
a share, in last year's first quarter. PG ended the day at $51.78 
down 1.73.

Hit by tough conditions in Europe and Asia, Unilever (UN) said 
its business suffered in the third quarter but has maintained its 
forecast for low earnings-per-share growth for the full year. The 
maker of brands such as Dove soap and Lipton tea, reported its 
net increased 4.2% to $1.13 billion. UN stated conditions in 
Europe continue to be difficult because of weak consumer 
confidence and the growth of discount retailers. They also sited 
poor weather as the cause for lower sales of ice cream and ready-
to-drink tea in the region. UN closed the day at 57.92 down 0.13.

The Philadelphia cable-television and Internet provider Comcast's 
(CMCSA) net income fell sharply from the previous year's third 
quarter because the previous year's quarter's results included a 
$3.29 billion gain from the sale of the company's interest in 
home-shopping network QVC. CMCSA reported its net income dropped 
93% to $220 million, or 10 cents a share, from $3.18 billion, or 
$1.41 a share, a year earlier. Revenue jumped 12% to $5.1 billion 
from $4.55 billion a year earlier. CMCSA ended the day at 29.47 
up 0.55. 

Blockbuster (BBI), who earlier this month split off from its 
former corporate parent Viacom, is suffering from a continued 
decline in its video-rental business and reported a sizeable loss 
in the third quarter. The company reported a net loss of $1.42 
billion, or $7.82 a share, compared with net income of $63.7 
million, or 35 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 1.8% 
to $1.41 billion from $1.38 billion a year earlier. BBI ended the 
day at 6.81 down 0.28. 

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported a net income gain in the third 
quarter as record high oil prices overcame declining production 
and higher exploration costs. Although some large oil companies 
like COP are faced with fewer and fewer ways to reinvest their 
windfall profits into projects that will grow production in 
future years, COP is using its cash to invest in the Russian oil 
industry. COP has announced a $2.4 billion strategic alliance 
with Russian oil giant OAO Lukoil, under which COP can purchase a 
7.6% stake of the company and develop joint exploration projects. 
COP ended the day at 84.92 down 1.01. 

The world's largest aerospace company, Boeing's (BA), attributed 
its third-quarter 78% surge in net income to double-digit growth 
in its military unit more than offsetting the losses in its 
commercial-aviation unit. In absolute dollars net income was $456 
million, or 56 cents a share, up from $256 million, or 32 cents a 
share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 7.9% to $13.15 billion 
from $12.18 billion during last year's third quarter. BA finished 
the day at 50.10 up 0.12. 

After hours we will be getting earnings from many companies but 
the most noteworthy are ASKJ, BIIB, JDSU, SWKS and THQI. 


Annotated Weekly Chart of the DOW:

 

Here is a weekly chart of the DOW, which I think shows why we may 
see a more upward pressure in the next few days. 

I am not a huge fan of MAs - they seem just a little too esoteric 
for for me but there is one I use because a lot of other analysts 
use it also - it is the 200 MA.  However, I have a problem 
because there are two 200 MAs, the simple and the exponential and 
as you can see from the chart above they can be quite divergent. 
To solve this problem I have put both on the chart and lo and 
behold they are merging so I don't have to decide between them. 
But the really cool thing is that they are merging right at the 
bottom of the DOW's weekly regression channel. 

Then you have the positive divergence in the MACD and 
stochastics, the election next week and the end of October and 
you have a recipe for a rally. 

Annotated Weekly Chart of the SPX:

 

As you can see from this chart the weekly SPX is much more 
bullish than the weekly chart of the DOW. First of all the 
regression channel is almost sideways while the DOW weekly chart 
points downward. Also both 200 MAs - the simple and exponential, 
are above the bottom channel.  And then there is the bullish 
reverse H&S forming with the neckline at the top channel line. 
More ingredients in our rally recipe.

Annotated Weekly Chart of the NASDAQ:

 

The weekly chart of the Nasdaq is much harder to read than the 
DOW and the SPX. The regression channel did not completely 
contain price like it did in the other two weekly charts. The two 
200 MAs are much more divergent here but I looks like the 
exponential is the best one to use.  It also looks like this 
index is ready to retreat and visit the bottom of the channel 
exactly opposite of what we are seeing in the DOW's chart. Of 
course you have to take into consideration the fact that the 
Nasdaq has been much more bullish than the DOW in the last few 
weeks. However you want to explain it, markets "work" much better 
when you have all the pieces in sync and that is not the case 
now. 

Annotated Daily Chart of the DWC - Wilshire 5000:

 

Instead of showing a chart of the Russell 2000 I decided to show 
you a chart of the Wilshire 5000, which is the total market. 
Surprisingly the two are very similar. 

I think what is most noteworthy here is the bullish reverse H&S 
forming with the head right at where the two 200 MAs converge. 
The only problem (isn't there always a problem?) is that reverse 
H&S are most relevant when a market is making a bottom and 
although I guess you could call this a falling market but on the 
weekly chart it is hard case to make.  

The Market Tomorrow

Thursday's economic releases begin with the usual 8:30 release of 
jobless claims, with those claims last week showing a decrease 
beneath the benchmark 350 thousand to 329 thousand.  At 10:00, 
the Help-Wanted Index will be released, with natural gas 
inventories next, near 10:30.  The Money Supply number will be 
seen after Thursday's market close, at 4:30.  

The most noteworthy earnings tomorrow will come from CCMP, COLM, 
DCX, XOM, GTW, GSK, IMCL, JBLU, LTR, MSO, MLNM, PNRA, RTN, G, VZ, 
VIA.

Have a great evening. 

Jane


=================================================================
WATCH LIST
=================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Intel Corp - INTC - close: 22.00 change: +0.60

WHAT TO WATCH: The SOX semiconductor index turned in a strong 3.5 
percent rally that helped lead the NASDAQ to a 2 percent gain.  
Chip-giant Intel added 2.8 percent and closed right at $22.00 
resistance.  It would appear that INTC may have put in a bottom 
near the $19.65 level and now semiconductor bulls can target a 
rebound - at least to the $25 region.  Odds are that if the 
market produces a post-election rally INTC will participate.  
However, bears will point out that the stock's P&F chart remains 
very negative.




---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.82 change: +1.57

WHAT TO WATCH: Technology stocks lead the day on Wednesday and 
the NWX networking index added 3.11 percent.  Shares of JNPR out 
performed most of its peers with a 6.47 percent climb on strong 
volume.  Unfortunately, JNPR couldn't power through resistance at 
the $26.00 level, at least not yet.  A move over $26 would 
reverse its P&F sell signal into a buy signal.  Considering the 
technicals and MACD signal that breakout could happen soon.




---

J.B.Hunt Transport - JBHT - close: 40.85 change: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: The Transportation sector is on fire.  The rise in 
oil has not slowed it down at all and today's reversal in crude 
prices helped lift the Dow transports to another new five-year 
high.  Meanwhile JBHT is consolidating its recent breakout over 
the $39-40 region.  We suspect that the rebound from $39 
yesterday and today's follow through looks like a bullish entry 
point.  However, readers may want to wait and watch for a trade 
over the $41.00 mark.  The recent move has produced a quadruple-
top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.




---

Omnicare Inc - OCR - close: 30.13 change: +0.83

WHAT TO WATCH: Ready for the rebound?  OCR crashed and burned 
back in July after missing earnings estimates and then warning 
for the future quarters.  Since then it has been a slow and 
dreary consolidation under resistance at $30.00 (actually the 
$30.20 level).  Fortunately for new traders to the stock the 
current three-month trend is one of higher lows.  Today's 
breakout and close over $30.00 is very bullish.  We would 
consider new positions if OCR trades above $30.21.  If this 
occurs our short-term target would be the bottom of the gap near 
$34.00.  Watch for earnings tomorrow morning before the opening 
bell.




-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

SYY $31.97 +0.90 - Today's breakout looks like a great bullish 
entry point to buy the rebound but SYY is due to report earnings 
on Monday.  We don't want to hold over the report.

ELN $26.53 +1.28 - Today's 5 percent again and new high over 
major resistance is very bullish but ELN should report earnings 
tomorrow.

BBBY $40.42 +0.42 - There you go!  We highlighted BBBY yesterday 
on the watch list for a breakout over $40.  Now we got it.  This 
looks like a bullish entry point.  Target $44.00.

BRCD $6.61 +0.30 - Today's 4.75 percent gain and breakout over 
$6.50 could be a bullish entry point but BRCD requires more 
research.

ROST $24.82 +1.00 - Retailer ROST is trying to put in a bottom 
after a very ugly summer. Shares are challenging the exponential 
200-dma.  Traders might want to consider longs over $25.05. 

CHRS $7.66 +0.20 - High risk traders may want to watch CHRS for a 
breakout over $7.75.
 

==========================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 10-27-2004
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  PLAB

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  Closed Bearish Plays: NVLS

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: BC, BG
  
High Risk/Reward
  Closed Bearish Plays: MLNM

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

PLAB - tech stock long -
  PLAB is bouncing higher as expected and closed
  above the $18 level on Wednesday. We are going
  to raise our stop loss from $16.25 to $16.75.


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 26.29 change: +1.03 stop: 26.26

It's pretty tough to be a bear when the NASDAQ Composite soars 
2.13 percent and breaks out over its simple 200-dma while the SOX 
semiconductor index adds 3.56 percent.  We tried.  NVLS was 
trying to cooperate with resistance at the $26 level but today's 
rally was probably fueled by a combination of worried shorts and 
eager bulls.  We are stopped out at $26.26. 

Picked on October 17 at $24.22 
Gain since picked:      - 2.07
Earnings Date         10/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      5.0 million 




==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Brunswick Corp - BC - close: 48.27 change: +0.74 stop: 44.64

BC has turned in a pretty decent week so far.  The stock is up 
three days in a row on a bounce from the $45 level.  Yesterday's 
gain pushed it through resistance at $47 on very strong volume.  
Today's gain was also produced on strong volume.  In the news BC 
announced that its Board of Directors had raised its cash 
dividend from 50 cents to 60 cents a share.  The current dividend 
is payable on December 15th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of 
November 22nd.  Per our trading plan we are closing BC ahead of 
its earnings report due out Thursday morning before the opening 
bell.  Wall Street is looking for 64 cents a share.

Picked on October 17 at $45.70 
Gain since picked:      + 2.57
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      717 thousand



---

Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 43.52 change: -0.64 stop: 41.75      

Time is up!  Per our trading plan we are exiting the bullish BG 
play before its earnings report.  The company is due to release 
its Q3 earnings on Thursday morning before the opening bell.  
Analysts are looking for BG to turn in a profit of 82 cents a 
share.  

Picked on October 17 at $41.96 
Gain since picked:      + 1.56
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      625 thousand




==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Millenium Pharma - MLNM - cls: 12.30 chg: +0.29 stop: 12.41     

We are trying to keep losses to a minimum and thus MLNM's 2.4 
percent rally back over the $12.00 is forcing our hand.  We've 
not yet been stopped out and MLNM has not yet broken through 
resistance at its simple 50-dma and the simple 100-dma but we 
don't want to fight it. The BTK biotech index has bounced very 
sharply in the past two days with the broader market rebound.  
Odds look good that MLNM will continue for a couple of more days.

Picked on October 13 at $11.99 
Gain since picked:      + 0.31
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      2.7 million 




==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          76.72     +1.50
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  46.77     +0.81
RD      Royal Dutch Petrol         53.84     +0.69
HD      Home Depot                 40.79     +1.12
KO      Coca-Cola                  40.40     +1.10
IBM     Intl Business Machines     90.02     +1.02

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

PKI     Perkin Elmer Inc           19.00     +1.12
AKAM    Akamai Technologies        16.42     +1.41
QSFT    Quest Software             13.99     +1.34
NTIQ    NetIQ Corp                 12.84     +1.27
CKP     Checkpoint Systems         17.32     +1.25
CVTX    CV Therepeutics            14.75     +2.24

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
WYE     Wyeth                      39.57     +1.74
EMR     Emerson Electric           64.76     +1.54
SYMC    Symantec                   62.20     +3.21
AAPL    Apple Computer             50.30     +2.33
MON     Monsanto                   41.79     +1.37
MCO     Moody's Corp               76.84     +1.84
ELN     Elan Corp                  26.54     +1.29

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SLB     Schlumberger Ltd           63.07     -2.42
AFL     Aflac Inc                  35.80     -1.84
ZBRA    Zebra Technologies         54.58     -4.01
TIN     Temple Inland              58.24     -1.50
SRCL    Stericycle Inc             41.80     -2.44
FMC     FMC Corp                   44.04     -4.81
MLI     Mueller Industries         26.15     -14.62
FLS     Flowserve Corp             21.01     -2.79

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

OXY     Occidental Petroleum       56.62     -1.16
SU      Suncor Energy              34.22     -1.23
XTO     XTO Energy                 33.74     -1.29
EOG     EOG Resources              67.80     -1.92
NBL     Noble Energy               58.76     -1.59
OSG     Overseas Shipholding       56.54     -2.70
ARLP    Alliance Resource Prtnrs   62.23     -3.22


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.








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