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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 10/31/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-31-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Kerry Wins!        
Market Sentiment: Forget it!     
Watch List: Natural Gas to Tech stocks and more!          

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 10-29        WE 10-22        WE 10-15        WE 10-08 
DOW    10027.47 +269.66 9757.81 -175.57 9933.38 -121.82 -137.45 
Nasdaq  1974.99 + 59.85 1915.14 +  3.64 1911.50 -  8.47 - 22.23 
S&P-100  540.65 + 15.49  525.16 -  6.64  531.80 -  6.67 -  4.64 
S&P-500 1130.20 + 34.46 1095.74 - 12.46 1108.20 - 13.94 -  9.36 
W5000  11068.95 +320.91 10748.0 - 90.63 10838.7 -125.85 - 94.18 
SOX      412.25 + 17.09  395.16 + 13.79  381.37 -  8.15 - 12.39 
RUT      583.79 + 16.02  567.77 -  0.65  569.42 -  6.23 -  9.38 
TRAN    3497.42 +125.48 3371.94 + 19.26 3352.68 + 16.68 + 37.20 
VXO       16.57           16.09           15.89           14.95 
VXN       21.90           21.36           21.80           20.69 
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Kerry Wins!
by Jim Brown

The markets are predicting a Kerry victory but it depends
on which market you are looking at. A normally dependable
indicator says if the Dow falls in the three months prior
to the election the challenger will win 81% of the time
or 9 of the last 11 elections. The Dow lost -1.1% over
the last three months. However, that is not the final 
word.  

According to Forbes.com they have analyzed the trend 
using not only the Dow but based on the Nasdaq, 5 of 8
years, the S&P, 8 of 11 and an average of the three gave
8 of 11 correct predictions. The most accurate was based
on the S&P gains minus the inflation rate as evidenced 
by the 90-day T bill. Using this indicator there has 
been a 91% success rate or correct predictions in 10 of
11 years. With the S&P up +2.5% for the last three months
and the 90-day T bill at 0.40 the result is a +2.1% S&P
indicator that says Bush will pull it out at the end. 
This indicator has a 91% track record of success. Now
we know you can make any indicator predict anything if
you apply enough qualifications. I would not bet the
farm on this outcome. The electronic futures polls had
the race exactly dead even at midday on Friday with each
candidates futures contract worth $50.00. By days end
they had separated to $52 Bush, $48 Kerry. The Real
ClearPolitics.com average of all polls as of Friday
night had Bush ahead by +2%. Bottom line it remains 
a dead even election and the lack of any market gains
on Friday was probably more related to the lack of a
clear leader than any other factor.

To further confuse the issue Jeremy Siegel, professor
at Wharton, highlighted some election statistics on
Friday. There have only been negative market returns
over the last 100 years under three presidents. They
were Hover, Nixon and Bush. We all understand why the
economy under Bush has performed poorly with the 9/11
attack knocking 2.5 million jobs out of the economy
and the Y2K bubble turning into a serious bear market
and a recession. Neither event was his doing and he
had no control over either. Also, in the last 100 
years only TWO republicans have been unseated by a
democratic challenger. Carter beat Ford and Clinton
beat Bush. Siegel suggested it really did not matter
to the markets now on who won this election just that
it was behind us. I doubt he will find any objections
from traders.  

Nasdaq Chart

 
Dow Chart

 
SPX Chart

 

Friday was full of economic events and the overall news
was very good for the economy. The opening salvo was the
GDP at +3.7%, which was weaker than the +4.4% expected
but better than the +3.3% number for Q2. The internals
were significantly better than the headline number with
consumer spending up +4.6%, business spending up +11.6%
and business equipment up a whopping +14.9%. This was
a very good report and the headline number would have
been much better except for the high oil prices skewing
the import numbers and the excessive inventory build in
Q2 holding down additional inventory additions in Q3.
Core inflation as measured by the PCE component rose
only +0.7% for the quarter and at the lowest rate since
1962. This is a phenomenal number and allows the Fed to
pause in the current rate hike cycle and watch for new
economic clues in 2005. 

Prior to today the expectations for the eventual rate
level was something in the 3.0-3.5% range. After the GDP
and some comments from Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson
that level is now drifting to the 2.5% range. This is a
big drop in expectations and the market did not react to
it on Friday probably due to the election cloud. Ferguson
said "several aspects of the current outlook lead me to 
suspect that the return of the equilibrium real rate from
its currently somewhat depressed level to its long-run 
value might plausibly be expected to be gradual and 
attenuated compared with historical experience." In English
the rate hike pace could slow based on external conditions.
He also said "I believe that the combined force of several
factors restraining aggregate demand, would require a lower
real rate than otherwise to avoid economic slack."  These
comments led analysts to believe the Fed was measuring 
its current policy of continued rate hikes against the 
low job growth, high oil and the potential impact on the
struggling economy. Again, the market did not react to
the slight policy shift and I believe it was the election
cloud keeping traders from seeing the light. 

Another clearly visible sign of strength returning to the
economy was the Chicago PMI which soared to 68.5 and well
above the consensus estimates of only 59.7. Anything over
50 represents an expansion and the jump to 68.5 pushed it
to the highest reading since the 1980s. New orders rose
+10 points to 79.4 and production soared +21 points to
79.7. Another good sign was a substantial inventory drop
to 51.8 from 64.7 which indicates the need to ramp up the
replenishment cycle. That was the lowest reading since 
April. This is a very strong report and suggests the ISM
on Monday could also be very strong. The PMI is unique to
the Chicago region but the ISM is a national view of the
same components. 

The NY NAPM continued to rise with a small move to 313.7
from 310.4 in September. The NY-NAPM was not as bullish
as the Chicago PMI but still an improvement after 14
consecutive months of gains. The August 2003 number of
221.7 was the cycle low for this series and NY has been
improving ever since. The only material change was a drop
in the six month outlook from 60.0 to 50.0. This suggests
the 2005 view is starting to fade.

Consumer Sentiment took an about face from the early
reading for October and jumped to 91.7 from the drop to
87.5 on Oct-15th. The end of month rebound to 91.7 was
still a drop from the September level at 94.2 but a big
sigh of relief for analysts. Present and future conditions
both jumped over four points in the final analysis. 

For the coming week we have not only the election cloud
but the closely watched ISM on Monday and the Jobs Report
on Friday. The ISM will be the more critical report this
time around simply for the election impact. Post election
the Jobs report will have far less impact on the national
scene and even a bad report could be beneficial for the
markets. In theory a bad report helps push the Fed to the
sidelines and keep rates lower for a longer period of time.

Just before the bell it was announced a new Bin Laden tape
was on the way and bonds soared and a closing rebound was
nipped in the bud. After the close the Al Qaeda leader 
appeared on camera in traditional attire and without any
camo and no gun. The tape was not a cave shoot and was 
much better produced. It contained negative comments 
on both Kerry and Bush and references to the election. 
The tape warned of more 9/11 style attacks and claimed
neither Bush or Kerry could keep America safe. The tape
was not made available until after the equity markets
closed and that blunted the impact but the campaigns
quickly picked up on the opportunity to go on the offense
against terrorism. Conventional wisdom suggests the tape
could give an edge to Bush as he has the track record for
pressing the attack against Al Qaeda. Some said the tape
also may have given Bush the edge because Osama attacked
Bush in much more detail and only mentioned Kerry. That
direct attack could have a reverse effect of suggesting
Bush has severely pressured Al Qaeda and voters could 
cheer his effort. There are far too many questions and 
the spin machines will be working overtime all weekend
to influence voter opinion. 

Oil prices took another dive off the high board and 
retreated all the way to $50 intraday before rebounding
to close at $51.75. This -10% drop from the $55.65 high
on Wednesday could have all the appearances of a break
in the trend but we only have to look back to August
when oil fell from $47 to $41 and analysts were all
predicting $35 before the election. I have believed for
several months we would see a pullback in prices after
the terrorist risk to the election has passed. The profit
taking this week allowed funds to take their gains off
the table and shift back into stocks for their year end
statements. I view any pullback in oil prices as buying
opportunities for oil stocks but I would wait for the
election to pass before jumping into new positions.

Analysts were pointing to oil as the catalyst for the
gains in equities this week. I view that as strange since
equities soared on Tuesday with oil at $55 and a day
before the actual high in oil and the big profit taking
drop. I do believe we could see a monster rally next week
if we have a successful election with a clear winner on
Wednesday and oil under $50. This would prompt further
profit taking in oil and further strong asset allocation
back into equities. 

For the week the Dow gained a whopping +269 points, 
+317 if you count from the 9708 low on Monday. This is 
a very strong bounce and as I illustrated on Thursday
night a historical trend for mutual funds to paint the
tape for their year end on Oct-31st. Now that their year
end is over we have two trading days left before the
election is history. It will be a real test of market
strength to see if we can hold our gains until the 
election results are known. The Osama tape should be
somewhat forgotten by Monday and hopefully not a factor.

The Dow has rebounded to 10000 and held there for two
days while the gains were consolidated and the October
clock expired. I fear that after the end of October
race to a milestone level which provided strong marketing
copy for end of year statements that Monday could be 
not just a pause for the election event but a profit
taking episode. After three weeks of heavy selling it
may be too much to ask for the selling to be magically
over. The economics were strong on Friday and they
produced no gains despite the month end. We have seen
it many times before in far less confusing situations 
where window dressing turned into undressing following
a calendar crossing. 

What could hold us up is the strong historical potential
for a post election year end rally. November is the 2nd
strongest month of the year behind December making the
next 60 days very key to producing returns for funds.
Even the very cautious funds cannot afford to be out of
the market if a post election explosion occurs. Missing
the first couple days of a rally typically takes 25% of
the profit out of the eventual gains. Funds can't afford
to guess wrong. If the Dow soared another +300 points
before next Friday those out of the market would be in
a very unsatisfactory position. They can't just place 
an order like you and I for a thousand shares each of 
ten stocks and call it a day. If a fund gets behind the
curve and needs to buy millions of shares across dozens
or even hundreds of stocks then prices go to the moon.
It is the same as the cockroach theory. Where you see
one there are probably dozens you don't see. When one
fund is behind the curve there are likely dozens if not
hundreds also behind the curve. For an example of funds
behind the curve we only need to look at October 2002.
The Dow rebounded off the 7200 bottom to hit 8540 in
only eight days. Had you been flat at the bottom after
two months of declines totaling nearly -2000 points the
initial reaction to the first +400 point bounce in only
two days would have been to expect a pullback from the
oversold bounce. Unfortunately for those who waited there
was no pullback and six days later the Dow was another
+1000 points higher. This is a lesson that will not be
soon forgotten by thousands of fund managers.

Dow Chart - October-2002

    

 
After reviewing the chart above it may put the +300
point bounce from this week into a different perspective.
Instead of expecting a tape painting bounce to fail we
may just see a pause for the election and a bookend 
rally to follow. This has been a terrible year for the
markets and most funds are at basically a breakeven for
the year if they did not play the oil rally. The SPX is
only about 20 points away from where it began 2004 and
the Dow is down about -425 points. The Nasdaq is nearing
breakeven at 2003 and just hitting that goal will only
make a new four month high. Funds need performance and
this late in the year they are going for broke. Maybe
that is a bad choice of words but you know what I mean.
They have to load the boat with every available share
and hope for a rising tide after Tuesday. They cannot 
afford for other funds to capture the gains and win
the ratings race.

Conversely, should the market rocket fail to lift off
the launching pad by the end of next week there is a
serious danger of an implosion instead of an explosion.
I would dare to bet that nearly 100% of traders expect
a post election rally and should one not appear there
could suddenly be some surprised bulls. Personally I
think that Friday economics and a good ISM on Monday 
will set the stage for a pretty good run but there is 
always the possibility that all the bets have already
been placed. Because the expectations of a post election
rally are so strong anybody with money to invest should
already be in the market. That only leaves those who were
too afraid of an election event to chase the prices. Will
it be enough to produce another Oct-2002 bounce? I really
doubt it but until the market proves otherwise I suggest
we remain long. 

The bears are not without their rally points with strong
resistance overhead on the SOX, Russell and the Wilshire.
However, one strong day like we had last week and those 
bears would be racing to cover any shorts as those levels
were broken. All really strong market rallies are built 
on the backs of disbelieving bears.  

Wilshire Chart

 
SOX Chart

 
Russell Chart

 


The end of October tape painting left us with two 
days to ponder our fate and adjust positions before
the election is over or at least until we hope it is
over. I would look to buy any Monday dip and keep my
stops tight until the election passes. At this point
the market is past worrying over who will win the 
election and it more focused on just getting it over.
Anybody placing an election bet based on a specific
winner has already put their money on the line and we
are just waiting for the dice to be rolled. Once past
Tuesday the negative talk will be gone and sentiment,
both market and consumer should improve. Earnings are
over and the holiday spirit will begin building along
with retail sales. It should be a great time to be in
the markets but then disaster normally strikes when it
is the most unexpected. Never assume and end of year
rally is the only outcome. Hope for it, plan for it 
and bet on it but always keep an exit plan in place. 
The Dow and the Nasdaq are still in a long term down
trend and until that trend breaks the risk for bulls
is still high. 
  
Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Forget it!
- J. Brown

It was a busy day on Friday.  The +3.7% GDP number came in less 
than the expected +4.3% growth rate but above the previous 
reading's +3.3% rate.  Consumer sentiment soared from 87.5 to 
91.7 when economists were looking for a drop to 85.  Plus, the 
PMI index vaulted to a very strong reading, which is a nice 
change from the pattern of positive but slow growth economic 
data.  After the closing bell a new Osama Bin Laden tape surfaced 
just before the election, which could raise terror fears when 
combined with the earlier English speaking terror tape released 
this past week.  

Yet through it all investors are focused on one thing. Forget the 
GDP.  Forget consumer sentiment.  Forget oil near $50 a barrel.  
Forget the PMI and forget Osama.  Right now the markets are 
focused on Tuesday's election and only Tuesday's election.  This 
alone is likely to keep trading somewhat subdued for the next two 
sessions.  

You've heard it before and you'll probably hear it again.  The 
markets hate uncertainty.  Right now there couldn't be much more 
uncertainty about who will win Tuesday's race.  With that in mind 
I think stocks did pretty well last week.  However, imagine the 
uncertainty if there is no clear winner on Tuesday night?  That's 
right, if the election is tied up in recounts and lawsuits for 
the next couple of months there could be no post-election rally.

Let's assume, no, let's hope that there is a winner come 
Wednesday morning.  If that is the case then we could be in for a 
strong year-end.  Historically we're stepping into the best two 
months of the year through November and December.  

Keep your fingers crossed for a strong turn out on Tuesday and 
get out there and vote!


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9497
Current     : 10027

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9903
 50-dma: 10109 
200-dma: 10257



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1130

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1111
 50-dma: 1115
200-dma: 1119



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1486

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1459
 50-dma: 1419
200-dma: 1438



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.27 +0.88
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.57 +1.11
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.90 +0.65 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.73        768,397       561,320
Equity Only    0.60        629,879       378,292
OEX            0.88         18,563        16,120
QQQ            1.25         61,220        76,802


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64.0    + 0.2   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    52.0    + 1     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   50.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       62.0    + 0.6   Bear Correction
S&P 100       60.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.85
10-dma: 0.94
21-dma: 1.01
55-dma: 1.02


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1554      1504
Decliners    1234      1535

New Highs     166       119
New Lows       24        37

Up Volume   1052M      773M
Down Vol.    722M      831M

Total Vol.  1823M     1642M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/26/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders don't seem willing to place any big 
directional bets ahead of the Nov. 2nd election.  The longs
and shorts are pretty much dead even.  Small traders are 
also narrowing their bullish bias a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)
10/12/04      423,472   436,780   (13,308)   (1.5%)
10/19/04      432,945   441,041   ( 8,096)   (0.1%)
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%
10/12/04      139,175   113,903    25,272     9.9%
10/19/04      147,148   124,827    22,321     8.2%
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials have added to their longs and reduced some shorts
but they remain strongly net bearish here.  Small traders
reduced both their longs and shorts with almost no change in
their bias.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)
10/12/04      258,457   517,805   (259,348)  (33.4%)
10/19/04      264,860   531,541   (266,681)  (33.4%)
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%
10/12/04      309,720     62,502   247,218    66.4%
10/19/04      353,903     66,027   287,876    68.5%
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is still very little change in commercials' NDX positions.
Actually there is very little change in the small-traders'
positions too.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%
10/12/04       52,572     32,775    19,797   23.2%
10/19/04       52,630     31,940    20,690   24.4%
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)
10/12/04        8,756    24,400   (15,644)  (47.2%)
10/19/04       10,462    25,243   (14,781)  (41.3%)
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders hedged their bets even more ahead of
the Nov. 2nd election so there is no clear up or downside
bias.  Small traders remain net bullish after the big
change two weeks ago.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
10/12/04       24,150    22,849    1,301       2.7%
10/19/04       25,385    24,213    1,172       2.3%
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)
10/12/04        8,814     9,167   (  353)   ( 1.9%)
10/19/04        8,327     6,015    2,312     16.1% 
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

El Paso Corp - EP - close: 8.94 change: +0.11 

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding EP to the play list 
this weekend as a bullish candidate.  The stock has a strong up 
trend.  Its technicals are bullish and its MACD is nearing a new 
buy signal.  We paused because earnings weren't so great last 
week and shares are still under the minor resistance at $9.00.  
If EP can break through the $9.00 mark we may go long.  Keep in 
mind that natural gas is said to be in tighter supply than crude 
oil.  We would target major resistance at $10.00.


 

---

Internet Security Systems - ISSX - close: 21.76 change: +1.48

WHAT TO WATCH: ISSX has been a big winner this past week.  Shares 
gapped higher on huge volume earlier this week on positive 
earnings.  Since then the rally has been fueled by volume.  
Friday's seven percent rally confidently broke through resistance 
at the $20 level.  Yet now ISSX is testing its 200-week moving 
average.  We would probably watch ISSX for a bounce from the $20 
level and/or wait for the dip and then watch for the breakout 
over $22.  We would not chase it here.




---

Eon Labs - ELAB - close: 24.61 change: +1.12

WHAT TO WATCH: ELAB may have found a bottom. The stock has been 
consolidating sideways between $21 and $24 for the past four 
weeks.  Then shares began to move higher on Thursday with a surge 
of volume.  Friday saw ELAB build on that move with a breakout 
over its simple 40 and 50-dma's.  We would watch for a move past 
resistance at $25.00 (probably $25.15) before considering bullish 
positions. Keep in mind that the exponential 200-dma could come 
into play as overhead resistance as could the simple 100-dma.




---

Energen Corp - EGN - close: 53.78 change: +0.83

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's another natural gas stock that has really 
done well over the past few months.  The stock is currently 
bouncing from support near the $51 level and is nearing 
resistance at $54.00. Volume has been strong on last week's rally 
and technicals are bullish.  The MACD has just now created a new 
buy signal.  Traders can choose to go long on a breakout over $54 
or consider another bounce from the $52.50 region. 






-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

SANM $8.00 +0.47 - SANM has broken out over its simple 100-dma 
with big volume on Friday's rally.  Watch it for a breakout over 
resistance in the $8.00-8.13 range.

NYT $40.05 -0.07 - Newspaper stocks have rebounded recently 
despite the circulation scandal and investigation.  NYT is 
challenging resistance near $40.  

PMCS $10.26 +0.04 - We're still watching PMCS after its breakout 
over the $10 mark.  Currently its testing the simple 100-dma as 
resistance near $10.50.

PWER $7.02 +0.01 - PWER recently broke out over the $7.00 level 
and spent most of the last two sessions consolidating above this 
mark and its simple 50-dma. 

ADCT $2.21 +0.04 - Speculators may want to watch ADCT for a 
breakout over its simple 100-dma.
 

=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-31-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     JNPR, SFNT
  Bullish Play Updates:  OVTI, PLAB
  
Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bearish Play Updates:  AFG, BSX, TIF


Stock Splits
  Announcements:         None


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 26.61 chg: +0.30 stop: 23.49

Company Description:
Juniper Networks transforms the business of networking by creating 
competitive advantage for our customers with superior networking 
and security solutions. Juniper Networks is dedicated to customers 
who derive strategic value from their networks, including global 
network operators, enterprises, government agencies and research 
and educational institutions. Juniper Networks' portfolio of 
networking and security solutions supports the complex scale, 
security and performance requirements of the world's most demanding 
mission critical networks.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Hmmm.. someone is accumulating JNPR.  The company recently reported 
earnings on Oct. 14th.  They managed to best Wall Street's 
estimates by 2 cents and guided higher for the fourth quarter but 
evidently they weren't so optimistic about 2005.  Thus far that 
news hasn't impeded the share price.  Shares of JNPR continued to 
consolidate lower until last Wednesday.  That's when shares soared 
higher on very strong volume almost twice the norm.  Since then 
JNPR has continued to rally and breakout over resistance at $26.00 
on above average volume.  This alone is pretty bullish but now its 
technicals are bullish, its MACD is in a buy signal, and the P&F 
chart has reversed into another buy signal.  We had JNPR on the 
watch list Thursday night but we're going to upgrade it to a play 
this weekend.  We are willing to buy here or on a dip back toward 
$25.  Watch for possible resistance at $28 but we're targeting a 
move to $30.00.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 31 at $26.61 
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      9.1 million 




---

SafeNet Inc - SFNT - close: 30.63 change: +1.03 stop: 27.00

Company Description:
SafeNet is a global leader in information security. Founded more 
than 20 years ago, the company provides complete security utilizing 
its encryption technologies to protect communications, intellectual 
property and digital identities, and offers a full spectrum of 
products including hardware, software, and chips. ARM, Bank of 
America, Cisco Systems, the Departments of Defense and Homeland 
Security, Adobe, Samsung, Texas Instruments, the U.S. Internal 
Revenue Service and scores of other customers entrust their 
security needs to SafeNet. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
SFNT is a networking and software security firm that might be 
considered a rival to JNPR.  If you don't like playing more than 
one stock in the same sector or industry you may want to choose 
between JNPR and SFNT since they're so similar.  We would probably 
consider SFNT a slightly higher-risk play because we normally don't 
play stocks this close to their earnings report.  SFNT recently 
reported Q3 numbers on Thursday night.  They beat estimates by 3 
cents and guided higher for the fourth quarter.  This sent SFNT up 
3.4 percent on Friday with volume almost three times the average.  
Friday was also a breakout over major resistance at $30.00 and its 
simple 200-dma.  The P&F chart points to a $44 target but both the 
P&F chart and the daily chart show overhead resistance near $34.  
This will be our initial target.  If SFNT doesn't see any quick 
follow through we may exit early. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 31 at $30.63 
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      363 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

OmniVision Tech - OVTI - close: 15.90 chg: -0.15 stop: 14.40 *new*

The OVTI rebound continues but the stock would seem to be 
dragging just a little bit behind the strong rally in the SOX 
semiconductor index this week.  The SOX managed to really back 
above the 400 level, the 410 level and its simple 100-dma to 
close at new 2 1/2 month highs.  OVTI also managed to rally to 
new three-month highs and on decent volume on Wednesday and 
Thursday.  We remain bullish on OVTI as we target a move into the 
$17.00-17.50 range.  However, traders might want to look for a 
dip and buy a bounce from the simple 10-dma (currently at $15.30) 
or a bounce from the $15.00 mark.  Keep in mind that the 
exponential 200-dma is currently trading at $17.09.  That's why 
the $17.00 mark is the bottom edge of our profit range.  We're 
going to raise our stop loss to $14.40.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 20 at $15.03
Gain since picked:      + 0.87
Earnings Date         11/17/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      5.0 million 



---

Photronics - PLAB - close: 17.55 change: -0.17 stop: 16.75

This is an important test for shares of PLAB.  The stock is 
coiling between the rising support line of higher lows and 
overhead resistance in the $18.00 region.  The MACD, which is 
very close to a new buy signal, suggests that PLAB will breakout 
to the upside.  We obviously have no guarantee of a bullish move 
so traders need to double-check their stops and how much risk 
their taking.  More conservative traders may want to snug up 
their stops under the simple 200-dma near $16.88 or the $17.00 
level.  We're going to leave our stop loss at $16.75 for now.  
Keep an eye on the SOX as well. If the SOX can produce some 
follow through on this past week's bullish bounce then PLAB will 
have a little help.  If you're looking for a new positions 
consider waiting for PLAB to trade over $18.13 before initiating 
one.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 20 at $17.48
Gain since picked:      + 0.07
Earnings Date         08/18/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      576 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

American Fincl Grp - AFG - close: 29.60 chg: -0.20 stop: 31.01

We have not had a good week with insurance provider AFG.  The 
stock has rebounded sharply.  The move appears to be fueled by a 
similar bounce in the IUX insurance index.  Positive news earlier 
in the week in Eliot Spitzer's investigation into the insurance 
industry lifted several of the bigger companies like MMC and AIG.  
The fact that Spitzer's team would not file criminal charges 
against MMC and news that they were already working on a 
settlement gave new hope to investors that maybe the worst was 
already behind them.  Shares of AFG bounced back through the 
exponential 200-dma and even the simple 200-dma but failed to 
break round-number resistance at the $30.00 mark.  Even so the 
move has turned technicals into a bullish reversal and its MACD 
is now in a new buy signal.  Furthermore volume was pretty strong 
on the bounce.  We need to make a decision.  Short-term 
everything suggests that AFG is rebounding and could move higher.  
Longer-term AFG is still stuck in a very wide trading range and 
hasn't been able to rally through resistance near $31 in years.  
We're going to keep the play open for now but conservative 
traders may want to exit if AFG trades over the $30 mark.  We 
would not suggest new positions at this time.  Wait for AFG to 
trade back under the 28.50 level. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 24 at $27.77
Gain since picked:      + 1.83
Earnings Date         10/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      193 thousand




---

Boston Scientific - BSX - close: 35.30 chg: +0.03 stop: 36.01*new*

Hmm... it's time to turn cautious on BSX.  There has been little 
follow through on October's earlier weakness and for a reason.  
On Tuesday BSX announced that its Board of Directors had approved 
a 50 million-share stock buyback program.  50 million shares is 
just under 10 percent of the float.  Plus, the next day Barron's 
Online came out with a positive article on BSX and how the stock 
could rebound.  Shares of BSX have spent the last three sessions 
trading in a very narrow range under the simple 10-dma.  We going 
to adjust our strategy and lower our stop to $36.01 to reduce our 
risk.  We think BSX is going to breakout one way or the other but 
if it's up we want to be stopped out quickly.  We would not 
suggest new bearish positions unless BSX traded under the $35 
level again.

Annotated chart:

 

Picked on October 24 at $35.21
Gain since picked:      + 0.09
Earnings Date         10/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      5.6 million 




---


Tiffany & Co - TIF - close: 29.33 change: +0.07 stop: 30.51     

It's been tough to be a bear in retail stocks when the RLX retail 
index is breaking out to new all-time highs.  Even shares of TIF, 
which have been a consistent relative strength loser, managed a 
bounce this past week.  The rebound sent TIF's short-term 
technicals into a bullish bounce and even its MACD has turned 
into a new buy signal.  Furthermore volume was above average on 
the mid-week rally.  All of these are big clues that bears (like 
us) need to be careful.  Keep a keen eye on the $30 level.  
That's where the battle will occur.  TIF's four-month trendline 
of lower highs will match up with round-number resistance at the 
$30 mark.  We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this 
time.

Annotated Chart:

 


Picked on October 13 at $29.00
Gain since picked:      + 0.33
Earnings Date         11/11/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      1.3 million 




==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None



=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 10-31-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 1st, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

=========================================
Market Watch for the week of October 11th
=========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

*This is not a complete list.  We only try and highlight the 
more significant earnings reports.


Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ABMD ABIOMED Inc.         Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell     -0.03
ACDO Accredo Health       Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.36
ASF  Administaff          Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.11
AGN  Allergan             Mon, Nov 01  ----- n/a -----      n/a
ALO  Alpharma             Mon, Nov 01  After the market     n/a
AVNX Avanex Corp.         Mon, Nov 01  After the market    -0.15
CHK  Chesapeake Energy    Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.30
NNN  Comm. Net Lease Rlty Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.36
CTV  CommScope            Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.20
DADE Dade Behring         Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.36
DECA Decoma Intl          Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.15
DRCT Direct General       Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.62
ETM  Entercom Comm.       Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.40
FFG  FBL Financial Grp    Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.45
FWHT FindWhat.com         Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.14
FHCC First Health         Mon, Nov 01  ----- n/a -----      0.32
HUM  Humana Inc.          Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.44
IVX  Ivax                 Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.21
KRON Kronos Inc           Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.50
LZ   Lubrizol             Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.75
MVSN Macrovision          Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.19
MECA Magna Entertainment  Mon, Nov 01  After the market     n/a
MLM  Martin Marietta Mat. Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      1.02
MXIM Maxim Integrated Pr. Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.42
MNT  Mentor               Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.28
MTLM Metal Mngmt          Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.72
NAVI Navisite             Mon, Nov 01  ----- n/a -----      n/a
NBIX Neurocrine Biosci.   Mon, Nov 01  After the market    -0.39
CHUX O'Charleys Inc       Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.20
ORBK Orbotech             Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.29
PAAS Pan American Silver  Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.03
PDLI Protein Design Labs  Mon, Nov 01  After the market    -0.21
RUBO Rubios Restaurants   Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.15
SCLN Scicline Pharma      Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell     -0.11
SGMS Scientific Games     Mon, Nov 01  After the market     0.21
SPW  SPX Corp             Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.89
SWC  Stillwater Mining    Mon, Nov 01  ----- n/a -----      0.24
SYY  Sysco Corp           Mon, Nov 01  Before the bell      0.35
TLM  Talisman Energy      Mon, Nov 01  ----- n/a -----      0.40
XL   XL Capital Ltd       Mon, Nov 01  After the market    -0.53


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

CTAC 1-800 Contacts, Inc. Tue, Nov 02  After the market     n/a
AETH Aether Systems Inc.  Tue, Nov 02  After the market     n/a
ABC  AmeriSource Bergen   Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.77
AMLN Amylin Pharma.       Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell     -0.39
BMC  BMC Software         Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.14
CDIS Cal Dive Intl        Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.49
CERG Ceres Group          Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.14
CLX  Clorox               Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.54
CCRT CompuCredit          Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.51
EMR  Emerson Electric     Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.79
EXPD Expeditors Intl      Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.39
IGT  Intl. Game Tech.     Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.33
ITRI Itron, Inc.          Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.28
LAF  Lafarge N. America   Tue, Nov 02  After the market     2.12
LNC  Lincoln National     Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.94
MAS  Masco                Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.63
MBI  MBIA Inc.            Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      1.32
NBL  Noble Energy         Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      1.13
OII  Oceaneering Intl     Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.49
PZZA Papa John's Intl     Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.50
PER  Perot Systems        Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.22
PLA  Playboy Enterprises  Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.04
PCLN Priceline.com        Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.27
PRU  Prudential           Tue, Nov 02  After the market     0.77
HOOK Redhook Ale Brewery  Tue, Nov 02  After the market     n/a
RKT  Rock-Tenn Co         Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.27
RYAAY Ryanair Holdings    Tue, Nov 02  During the market    n/a
THC  Tenet Healthcare     Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell     -0.05
WEC  Wisconsin Energy     Tue, Nov 02  Before the bell      0.44

------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAP  Advance Auto Parts   Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.68
DOX  Amdocs Ltd           Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.30
ADRX Andrx Corp           Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----      0.31
BLDP Ballard Power        Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----     -0.33
BNT  Bentley Pharma.      Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.07
BJS  BJ Services Co       Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----      0.55
SAM  Boston Beer Co       Wed, Nov 03  During the market    0.24
BOBJ Business Objects     Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.18
CNQ  Canadian Nat. Resrc. Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.69
CPC  Central Parking      Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----     -0.03
CEPH Cephalon Inc.        Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.67
CI   Cigna                Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      1.36
DVA  DaVita               Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.52
DF   Dean Foods           Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.45
DUK  Duke Energy          Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.38
EDMC Education Mgmt Corp  Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.08
EDS  Electronic Data Sys  Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.08
ESRX Express Scripts      Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.98
FSH  Fisher Scientific    Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.74
IACI InterActiveCorp      Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.21
JUPM Jupiter Media        Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.12
KOSP Kos Pharmaceuticals  Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.74
NTES Netease.com          Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.36
NICE NICE Systems         Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.26
PHS  PacifiCare Health    Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.87
PDII PDI, Inc.            Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.33
RL   Polo Ralph Lauren    Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.73
QCOM Qualcomm Inc.        Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.29
RAH  Ralcorp Holdings     Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----      0.39
COL  Rockwell Collins     Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.45
SONS Sonus Networks       Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.02
TTEC TeleTech Holdings    Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.07
BCO  The Brink's Co       Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.41
EL   The Estee Lauder Co  Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.37
PMI  The PMI Group        Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      1.00
TWX  Time Warner Inc.     Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.14
TWTC Time Warner Telecom  Wed, Nov 03  After the market    -0.27
TOM  Tommy Hilfiger       Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----      0.66
UNM  UnumProvident Corp.  Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.41
VARI Varian Inc.          Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.46
VSH  Vishay Intertech.    Wed, Nov 03  Before the bell      0.14
WTW  Weight Watchers Intl Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.40
WWCA Western Wireless     Wed, Nov 03  ----- n/a -----      0.53
UBET Youbet.com           Wed, Nov 03  After the market     0.03


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

TFSM 24/7 Real Media      Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.00
AL   Alcan Inc.           Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.69
AMSC American Supercond.  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell     -0.21
ANPI Angiotech Pharma.    Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.26
ATAR Atari Inc.           Thr, Nov 04  After the market    -0.19
BRL  Barr Pharmaceuticals Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.49
BE   BearingPoint, Inc.   Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.06
BDX  Becton Dickinson Co  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.68
BVF  Biovail Corp.        Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.37
BRKS Brooks Automation    Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.31
CPN  Calpine Corp         Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.17
CHINA Chinadotcom         Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.05
CQB  Chiquita Brands Intl Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.34
CNXT Conexant Systems     Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----     -0.02
CSR  Credit Suisse Group  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      n/a
CMLS Cumulus Media        Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.13
CVX  CVS Corp             Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.41
DTE  DTE Energy           Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.59
EELN E-Loan               Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.00
RDEN Elizabeth Arden      Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.13
ENZN Enzon Pharma.        Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.02
ESPD eSpeed, Inc.         Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.10
FS   Four Seasons Hotels  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.29
HANS Hansen Natural       Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      n/a
HIG  Hartford Financial   Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.69
THX  Houston Exploration  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      1.49
ICOS ICOS Corp            Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----     -0.56
IMGN Immunogen Inc.       Thr, Nov 04  After the market    -0.07
KCS  KCS Energy           Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.37
MGA  Magna Intl. Inc.     Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      1.31
MFC  Manulife Financial   Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.72
MOVI Movie Gallery Inc.   Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.29
GAS  Nicor Inc.           Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.06
NVDA NVIDIA Corp.         Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.09
PGN  Progress Energy      Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      1.05
PSA  Public Storage       Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      0.76
Q    Qwest Communications Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell     -0.15
ROK  Rockwell Automation  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.49
SBGI Sinclair Broadcast   Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.00
TSO  Tesoro Petroleum     Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----      1.22
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical  Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.35
TRW  TRW Auto             Thr, Nov 04  Before the bell      0.12
UVN  Univision Comm.      Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.20
VCLK ValueClick, Inc.     Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.06
HLTH WebMD                Thr, Nov 04  After the market     0.10
OATS Wild Oats Markets    Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----     -0.11
XMSR XM Satellite Radio   Thr, Nov 04  ----- n/a -----     -0.65


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

BZH  Beazer Homes USA Inc Fri, Nov 05  Before the bell      5.49
BRKa Berkshire Hathaway   Fri, Nov 05  ----- n/a -----    748.50
WGR  Western Gas Resource Fri, Nov 05  Before the bell      0.38


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

PFSB    PennFed Financial         2:1      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
ROCK    Gibraltar                 3:2      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
PNY     Piedmont Natural Gas      2:1      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
ASGR    America Service Group     3:2      Oct 29th    Nov 01st
VIDE    Video Display Corp        2:1      Oct 31st    Nov 01st
BGG     Briggs & Stratton         2:1      Nov  9th    Nov 10th
DVN     Devon Energy              2:1      Nov 15th    Nov 16th
NFB     North Fork Banc           3:2      Nov 15th    Nov 16th
FBNC    First Bancorp             3:2      Nov 15th    Nov 16th


-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------

Q3 earnings are still announcing at a steady pace but the real
focus this week will be the Tuesday Presidential Election.  The
beginning of a new month also brings a parade of economic data.
Watch for the ISM indices, vehicle sales, same-store sale, and
on Friday will be the non-farm payrolls report.


==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 11/01/04
----------------
ISM  manufacturing index for October  Last: 58.5  Est: 58.0
Personal Income for September
Pesonal Spending for September
Construction spending for September

-----------------
Tuesday, 11/02/04
-----------------
U.S. Presidential Election
Challenger corporate Layoffs report for October

-------------------
Wednesday, 11/03/04
-------------------
ISM Services index for October   Last: 56.7   Est: 58.3
Factory Orders for September
Auto Sales for October
Truck Sales for October

------------------
Thursday, 11/04/04
------------------
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Q3 Productivity report (preliminary reading)
Chain store comparable/same-store sales numbers

----------------
Friday, 11/05/04
----------------
Non-farm Payrolls (Jobs) for Oct.  Last: +96K  Est: +175K
Unemployment rate for October.     Last: 5.4%   
Hourly Earnings for October
Average work week for October
Consumer Credit for September


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          77.59     +0.90
COP     ConocoPhillips             84.31     +1.33
XOM     ExxonMobil                 49.22     +0.61
MFC     Manulife Financial         46.57     +0.97
UTX     United Technology          92.82     +0.75
CAT     Caterpillar                80.54     +1.01

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ADM     Archer Daniels Midland     19.37     +1.56
APCC    American Power Convrsn.    19.28     +2.20
ARBA    Ariba Inc                  15.35     +2.03
OSIS    OSI Systems                17.41     +1.02
EBKR    Ebookers Plc (ADR)          9.20     +1.04
ALSK    Alaska Comm.                7.06     +1.07

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
VAR     Varian Medical Systems     40.15     +1.82
NCR     NCR Corp                   56.35     +2.49
BG      Bunge Ltd                  47.73     +1.08
FLR     Fluor Corp                 46.44     +1.23
BEC     Beckman Coulter Inc        59.50     +1.85
CFR     Cullen Frost Bankers       49.00     +1.35
PKI     PerkinElmer Inc            20.54     +1.34

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AVP     Avon Products              39.55     -3.66
IMCL    ImClone Systems            43.80     -2.15
MDP     Meredith Corp              49.00     -2.06
CHH     Choice Hotels Intl         49.90     -9.79
PNRA    Panera Bread               34.93     -1.33
GIVN    Given Imaging Ltd          32.24     -3.05
SCSC    Scansource Inc             61.93     -8.17
NILE    Blue Nile                  24.30     -2.91
PLB     American Italian Pasta     20.30     -1.02

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

SYMC    Symantec                   56.94     -2.43
ARE     Alexandreia Real Estate    66.05     -1.22
BMI     Badger Meter               49.00     -1.40
HWG     Hallwood Group            104.50     -3.50


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