PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-02-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: All Over But the Counting Watch List: Drugs to Semis and more Market Sentiment: And The Winner Is... ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 11-02-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10035.73 - 18.70 10132.99 10011.18 2.03 bln 1664/1456 NASDAQ 1984.79 + 4.90 2002.93 1978.64 1.85 bln 1543/1543 S&P 100 540.67 + 0.17 545.51 539.25 Totals 3207/2999 S&P 500 1130.58 + 0.07 1140.48 1128.12 SOX 414.23 + 0.50 417.92 407.88 RUS 2000 585.44 - 1.56 591.54 583.53 DJ TRANS 3449.62 - 54.50 3505.67 3436.41 VIX 16.18 - 0.09 16.32 15.21 VXO (VIX-O)16.85 + 0.54 17.02 15.56 VXN 22.97 + 0.36 23.06 21.66 Total Volume 4,228M Total UpVol 2,425M Total DnVol 1,731M Total Adv 3586 Total Dcl 3409 52wk Highs 411 52wk Lows 61 TRIN 0.98 NAZTRIN 0.53 PUT/CALL 0.76 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== All Over But the Counting by Jim Brown By the time you read this tonight the early returns should be starting to trickle in and based on the exit polls on the Internet the edge is going to Kerry. The market had priced in a relief rally with breakouts to new highs across the board but once those polls began to break so did the market. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SPX Chart Wilshire 5000 Chart The Dow gave back -100 points to drop from its highs at 10132 and come very close to 10,000 at the close based on the early election news. The Nasdaq had been trading over 2000 for the first time since early July but dropped to retest 1980 resistance turned support again at the close. With all the pundits telling us the markets would have a relief rally tomorrow regardless of who wins you now wonder how valid that assumption was. If a couple of leaked exit polls showing Kerry with a potential lead in 5-6 states can turn a soaring rally into a loss then what will happen tomorrow? I am not going to hazard a guess because there are as many opinions as there are traders. Historically the markets don't care in the long run who wins and both parties can point to significant gains when their side is in power. However, because Bush was ahead in the polls for almost the entire race there is likely to be a Bush bias in the market. Institutions don't want to reallocate money unless forced and as long as there was a Bush edge in the polls many may have buried their head in the sand in hopes the problem would go away. The early exit polls today shocked somebody back into reality and the selling was very sharp. It could have been funds that were planning on exiting at the close anyway to capture profits and a smaller sell program just snowballed in the light volume. I think it would be hard to make any case on the direction of tomorrows market until we actually get to tomorrow. There is a running debate among traders on the validity of the post election rally period. Since funds normally invest long before any event the odds are good that most funds are already fully invested in advance of the election. They are hoping the directional traders who wanted to see a winner first will give their positions a boost. There is also those traders that feared a pre-election event of either a terrorist attack or a fatal case of foot and mouth disease by a candidate. I am not going into a lot of discussion about historical trends or various comparisons of the candidates and their impact on the market. At this point it is a waste of breath or digital ink in this case. The real scenario will now appear and we will see the results for our self tomorrow. So far the armies of lawyers remain unemployed and there have been no real problems reported in the news. Heavy voter turnout and the race is still a dead heat. Back in the economic world the Chain Store Sales fell once again at -0.3% for the third consecutive week of drops. Halloween traffic was reportedly strong but it could not push the numbers back into positive territory. The Challenger Layoff report showed a loss of more than 100,000 jobs for the second consecutive month. Cuts had averaged -71,000 for the preceding seven months. When you realize that we are in the fourth quarter where jobs normally increase this is not a good sign. Long term the Oct-2004 numbers at 101,840 was -40% below the layoffs in Oct-2003 so the trend is still down in the longer view but up in the short term. Is this a leading edge of a problem or just a blip? In the first ten months of 2004 826,160 layoffs had been announced. This compares to 1,043,954 for the first ten months of 2003. The October Jobs report is due out Friday and it will be less critical now than before the election. The estimate is currently +160,000 jobs. The Risk of Recession report continued its climb with a 27.4% reading. The low for this cycle was only a 3.2% risk as of Nov-2003 and we have seen a strong rise in recent months to the high of 28.3% in August. A fall in consumer confidence could be to blame as is the rise in oil prices. The drop in the market in October also contributed to some of the increased risk. Two brokers came out today with lowered expectations for the PC sector in the 4Q. Bear Stearns lowered their Q4 estimates slightly to only +13% growth from the prior +14% growth. The analyst said rising energy prices was depressing the consumer market. Merrill said the inventory levels were increasing in expectation for holiday sales but as of yet those sales were mediocre. The analyst said the battle for retail shelf space continued to be brutal but Gateway with its eMachines product had taken about 10% share away from H-P and Compaq since April. According to Merrill HPQ currently held 48% of retail desktop shelf space. eMachines is expected to flood the market over the holidays in an effort to capture share at lower price points. Tough business for HPQ trying to hold their high end tactics while the consumer is pressured for buying power. For those not avid watchers of the chip space you might be surprised to look at an AMD chart. The company has come back from a rumored demise in August at $11 to very close to a new 52-week high at $18. Suddenly you can find AMD chips in places you would not expect and Intel is cutting back on new projects on almost a task a week rate. Unfortunately the chip outlook is still weak. Chip makers at the Reuters Semiconductor Summit in San Fran this week were still hopeful but the cloud is still descending. Without a robust holiday cycle the outlook consensus was grim for inventory reductions in time for a 2005 rebuild. The Semiconductor Assn will update their forecasts on Wednesday and expectations are for a drop in their outlook. The EVP for Cypress Semi said the industry was about to pay the price in coming months for overbuilding production capacity. He said there was currently 20% overcapacity compared to 50% in 2000. Currently the association does not expect growth to return until 2007. NSM warned on Monday that sales were going to fall between 18-19% for Q4 compared to prior estimates of a drop of -10%. The SOX ignored all the bad news and neared 420 today and a three month high before the end of day selling appeared. A sector on a permanent high was oil but even that bull run failed to gain traction today. With oil data due out at 10:30 on Wednesday and pipeline explosions in Iraq you would have expected oil to rise again. It went the opposite direction with a close at $49.20 and well below the $55.65 high from last week. There were various reasons given but I expect it was due more to rising stock prices and the end of the election cycle that sent the prices lower. There was no terrorist event as was predicted to send prices higher into the election and penalize Bush. Also, with the election over and a post election rally expected many funds were probably dumping oil bets to raise cash to chase the post election equity market. The morning bounce in stocks only increased the expectations for the post election bounce. The afternoon drop probably shocked some of these funds enough to keep them on the sidelines until a victor has been named. One interesting side note the Euro spiked higher when Kerry was said to be ahead. That should tell you that a Kerry administration would be more friendly to Europe and let bygones be bygones. The dollar also fell compared to the Yen on the news. The Dow had traded to a three week high at 10132 early in the day and then faded into the early afternoon. The Dow bounce failed at the 100dma at 10134. That 10134 level was decent resistance with 10250 much stronger and not that far overhead. The drop back to 10000 at the close put us right back at support for the last week and a logical place to wait. Should we actually get a post election rally that 10250 level will be a key level to watch to determine if the rally has legs. A failure there could restart the entire down trend discussion. That 10250 level is the down trend resistance from early in the year. Should the market not like the election returns then 9900 is the key level on the downside. A break there again could cancel any November rally and return us to the worry about the market predicting another recession. The Nasdaq hit strong resistance at 2000 and has already broken above its February down trend at 1965. The Nasdaq was on track to challenge the next resistance level at 2050 should a post election rally breakout but the news drop took nearly -20 points off the optimism. The 1965- 1985 level is strong support that was built over the last week. As long as those levels hold on any negative election news then the overall market should remain sound. The SOX holding above 400 and the Russell over 580 should continue to provide support for the Nasdaq base. Russell Chart SOX Chart Tomorrows economic reports including the ISM Services, Factory Orders, Mortgage Applications and Oil Inventory should not matter to the market. It is all about the election now and the bets that funds have already placed and are ready to place tomorrow. The stage is set and the investment community is waiting for the play to begin. All the posturing, mudslinging, predicting and threatening will all be behind us and real life will begin again. According to the latest reports there are no events that should keep us from having a winner declared tonight but then until the votes are counted nothing is guaranteed. I am not going to take any more of your time today because what I say or any market analyst says tonight has no bearing on our direction tomorrow. Trade the trend tomorrow and keep your stops loose as the volatility could be very high. Buy any dips to the levels I mentioned above and hope the post election rally fable comes true. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Forest Labs - FRX - close: 42.00 change: -2.10 WHAT TO WATCH: Disappointing news from FRX's hypertension drug's latest trials sent FRX for a 4.7 percent loss. Volume was very heavy and shares look ready to break important support in the $41-42 level. Should this occur traders can probably target a move into the $33-35 range. The bearish P&F chart currently points to a $37 target. --- BMC Software - BMC - close: 17.02 change: -2.32 WHAT TO WATCH: BMC reported earnings today that beat estimates. Management also guided higher but investors were not happy with comments in the conference call. An early morning rally turned into a rout and BMC crashed through support at $18.00, the 200- dma and the $17.50 level. This is a huge bearish engulfing candlestick and points to a new trend lower. Watch for any follow through on the move. --- Linear Technology - LLTC - close: 38.43 change: +0.50 WHAT TO WATCH: The SOX semiconductor index managed a positive close on Tuesday but not by much. Fortunately, that didn't stop LLTC from adding 1.3 percent. What makes the move noteworthy is the breakout over its simple 200-dma. This moving average has been technical resistance for months where LLTC has consistently failed. It could see some short covering and or technical buying now. Watch for psychological resistance at $40.00. --- Covance Inc - CVD - close: 40.69 change: +1.10 WHAT TO WATCH: If you're looking for relative strength and momentum then CVD may be a candidate for you. The stock has been a big winner over the last couple of years but CVD has spent the last four months consolidating sideways. This consolidation narrowed during the last few weeks as the stock coiled to breakout over resistance at $40.00. That breakout occurred today on strong volume. Looks like a bullish entry point us. Now we just need to see how the markets react to the election. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- PLA $12.20 +1.17 - PLA rallied sharply +10.6 percent on big volume after a positive earnings report. The move pushed PLA above both its exponential and simple 200-dma's and the $12.00 mark. YCC $28.92 +0.42 - As expected YCC broke out of its pennant pattern to the upside. This is a bullish entry point. XLTC $23.40 -1.50 - We normally wouldn't play XLTC because its average volume is too low. However, more aggressive traders may want to consider bearish positions with today's breakdown. ISLE $20.24 -1.36 - ISLE has sold off sharply in the last couple of days with big volume. Together with today's drop under the simple 200-dma looks like bad news. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== And The Winner Is... - J. Brown And the winner is...? Hopefully the answer to that question is stocks but only if we get a clear winner. About the only certainty we have in this dead-heat of an election is that everyone wants it to be over. After listening all day to the news media I'm encouraged that there really wasn't any major voter scandal brewing. No one wants a repeat of the 2000 election. What can I say about investor sentiment tonight? The markets were not expected to do much before the election and that's exactly what we've got at least with the major indices. Everyone seems poised for a post-election rally. Of course that could be a problem in and of itself. Normally if everyone expects something to occur it doesn't. You've probably heard it before. If everyone leans over the same side of the boat it just might tip over. The market internals mirrored the pre-election indecision. One could say that advancing stocks and declining stocks were in a "statistical dead heat" today. Up volume out paced down volume but only on the NASDAQ. It may be noteworthy that the ARMS index or TRIN's short-term moving averages are in or nearing bearish territory. Cross your fingers and hope that there is a clear winner. If not stocks are not expected to do well while both sides try and win the election in court. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9497 Current : 10035 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9927 50-dma: 10107 200-dma: 10252 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 1018 Current : 1130 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1111 50-dma: 1115 200-dma: 1119 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1494 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1467 50-dma: 1424 200-dma: 1438 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.18 -0.09 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 16.85 +0.54 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 22.97 +0.36 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.77 880,089 673,404 Equity Only 0.55 723,572 398,622 OEX 1.42 31,369 44,520 QQQ 0.53 47,083 24,789 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 65.0 + 1 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 53.0 + 1 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 50.0 - 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 63.6 + 1.6 Bear Correction S&P 100 61.0 + 1 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.80 10-dma: 0.90 21-dma: 1.03 55-dma: 1.02 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1459 1517 Decliners 1368 1530 New Highs 150 97 New Lows 16 36 Up Volume 1017M 1191M Down Vol. 988M 629M Total Vol. 2052M 1836M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/26/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders don't seem willing to place any big directional bets ahead of the Nov. 2nd election. The longs and shorts are pretty much dead even. Small traders are also narrowing their bullish bias a bit. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 421,217 435,736 (14,519) (1.7%) 10/12/04 423,472 436,780 (13,308) (1.5%) 10/19/04 432,945 441,041 ( 8,096) (0.1%) 10/26/04 441,263 445,992 ( 4,729) (0.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 137,210 114,489 22,721 9.0% 10/12/04 139,175 113,903 25,272 9.9% 10/19/04 147,148 124,827 22,321 8.2% 10/26/04 138,201 121,275 16,926 6.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials have added to their longs and reduced some shorts but they remain strongly net bearish here. Small traders reduced both their longs and shorts with almost no change in their bias. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 248,190 476,608 (228,418) (31.5%) 10/12/04 258,457 517,805 (259,348) (33.4%) 10/19/04 264,860 531,541 (266,681) (33.4%) 10/26/04 276,128 509,552 (233,424) (29.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 308,021 80,373 227,648 58.6% 10/12/04 309,720 62,502 247,218 66.4% 10/19/04 353,903 66,027 287,876 68.5% 10/26/04 345,908 64,061 281,847 68.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is still very little change in commercials' NDX positions. Actually there is very little change in the small-traders' positions too. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 55,640 32,872 22,768 25.7% 10/12/04 52,572 32,775 19,797 23.2% 10/19/04 52,630 31,940 20,690 24.4% 10/26/04 53,233 31,323 21,910 26.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 12,254 30,693 (18,439) (42.9%) 10/12/04 8,756 24,400 (15,644) (47.2%) 10/19/04 10,462 25,243 (14,781) (41.3%) 10/26/04 10,521 25,388 (14,867) (42.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders hedged their bets even more ahead of the Nov. 2nd election so there is no clear up or downside bias. Small traders remain net bullish after the big change two weeks ago. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 27,498 25,772 1,726 3.2% 10/12/04 24,150 22,849 1,301 2.7% 10/19/04 25,385 24,213 1,172 2.3% 10/26/04 25,707 24,855 852 1.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 5,531 5,539 ( 8) ( 0.0%) 10/12/04 8,814 9,167 ( 353) ( 1.9%) 10/19/04 8,327 6,015 2,312 16.1% 10/26/04 8,405 6,336 2,069 14.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-02-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: None Stock Splits Announcements: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== None ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PTR Petrochina Co Ltd 53.29 +1.07 HBC HSBC Holdings 82.32 +0.56 FNM Fannie Mae 71.44 +1.02 C Citigroup 44.99 +0.68 MFC Manulife Financial 47.65 +1.42 FRE Freddie Mac 67.24 +0.59 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- UNA Unova Inc 20.00 +4.71 PLA Playboy Enterprises 12.20 +1.17 RNOW Rightnow Technologies 18.28 +1.61 KEYW Essex Corp 13.25 +1.06 NANO Nanometrics Inc 14.28 +2.35 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TYC Tyco Intl Ltd 32.72 +1.02 AXP American Express Co 54.00 +1.09 EMR Emerson Electric Co 65.53 +1.25 PFG Principal Financial Group 37.99 +1.16 HAR Harman Intl Industries 125.70 +5.55 NCR NCR Corp 57.00 +1.74 RYAAY Ryanair Holdings 34.61 +5.84 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MRK Merck & Co 26.80 -1.48 TEVA Teva Pharmaceuticals 23.65 -1.50 FRX Forest Labs 42.00 -2.10 DISH Echostar Communications 30.59 -1.03 BJS BJ Services 46.58 -3.67 EXPD Expeditors Intl of Wshgtn 50.70 -7.01 COT Cott Corp 24.97 -1.01 MNT Mentor Corp 29.69 -5.49 EAGL EGL Inc 29.08 -3.09 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- CLX Clorox Co 53.77 -1.38 CHRW C.H.Robinson Worldwide 52.36 -1.10 ETR Entergy Corp 63.71 -1.48 PZZA Papa Johns Intl Inc 31.48 -0.62 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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