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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/02/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-02-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       All Over But the Counting
Watch List:        Drugs to Semis and more
Market Sentiment:  And The Winner Is...

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      11-02-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10035.73 - 18.70 10132.99 10011.18 2.03 bln 1664/1456
NASDAQ   1984.79 +  4.90  2002.93  1978.64 1.85 bln 1543/1543
S&P 100   540.67 +  0.17   545.51   539.25   Totals 3207/2999
S&P 500  1130.58 +  0.07  1140.48  1128.12 
SOX       414.23 +  0.50   417.92   407.88
RUS 2000  585.44 -  1.56   591.54   583.53
DJ TRANS 3449.62 - 54.50  3505.67  3436.41
VIX        16.18 -  0.09    16.32    15.21
VXO (VIX-O)16.85 +  0.54    17.02    15.56
VXN        22.97 +  0.36    23.06    21.66 
Total Volume 4,228M
Total UpVol  2,425M
Total DnVol  1,731M
Total Adv  3586
Total Dcl  3409
52wk Highs  411
52wk Lows    61
TRIN       0.98
NAZTRIN    0.53
PUT/CALL   0.76
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

All Over But the Counting
by Jim Brown

By the time you read this tonight the early returns 
should be starting to trickle in and based on the exit
polls on the Internet the edge is going to Kerry. The
market had priced in a relief rally with breakouts to
new highs across the board but once those polls began
to break so did the market. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 
Wilshire 5000 Chart

 

The Dow gave back -100 points to drop from its highs at
10132 and come very close to 10,000 at the close based
on the early election news. The Nasdaq had been trading
over 2000 for the first time since early July but 
dropped to retest 1980 resistance turned support again
at the close. With all the pundits telling us the 
markets would have a relief rally tomorrow regardless
of who wins you now wonder how valid that assumption 
was. If a couple of leaked exit polls showing Kerry 
with a potential lead in 5-6 states can turn a soaring
rally into a loss then what will happen tomorrow?

I am not going to hazard a guess because there are as
many opinions as there are traders. Historically the
markets don't care in the long run who wins and both
parties can point to significant gains when their side
is in power. However, because Bush was ahead in the 
polls for almost the entire race there is likely to
be a Bush bias in the market. Institutions don't want
to reallocate money unless forced and as long as there
was a Bush edge in the polls many may have buried their
head in the sand in hopes the problem would go away. 

The early exit polls today shocked somebody back into 
reality and the selling was very sharp. It could have 
been funds that were planning on exiting at the close
anyway to capture profits and a smaller sell program
just snowballed in the light volume. I think it would 
be hard to make any case on the direction of tomorrows
market until we actually get to tomorrow. 

There is a running debate among traders on the validity
of the post election rally period. Since funds normally
invest long before any event the odds are good that
most funds are already fully invested in advance of
the election. They are hoping the directional traders
who wanted to see a winner first will give their 
positions a boost. There is also those traders that
feared a pre-election event of either a terrorist attack
or a fatal case of foot and mouth disease by a candidate.

I am not going into a lot of discussion about historical
trends or various comparisons of the candidates and
their impact on the market. At this point it is a waste
of breath or digital ink in this case. The real scenario
will now appear and we will see the results for our self
tomorrow. So far the armies of lawyers remain unemployed
and there have been no real problems reported in the news.
Heavy voter turnout and the race is still a dead heat. 

Back in the economic world the Chain Store Sales fell
once again at -0.3% for the third consecutive week of
drops. Halloween traffic was reportedly strong but it
could not push the numbers back into positive territory.

The Challenger Layoff report showed a loss of more than
100,000 jobs for the second consecutive month. Cuts had
averaged -71,000 for the preceding seven months. When
you realize that we are in the fourth quarter where
jobs normally increase this is not a good sign. Long
term the Oct-2004 numbers at 101,840 was -40% below
the layoffs in Oct-2003 so the trend is still down in
the longer view but up in the short term. Is this a
leading edge of a problem or just a blip? In the first
ten months of 2004 826,160 layoffs had been announced.
This compares to 1,043,954 for the first ten months of
2003. The October Jobs report is due out Friday and it
will be less critical now than before the election. 
The estimate is currently +160,000 jobs. 

The Risk of Recession report continued its climb with
a 27.4% reading. The low for this cycle was only a 3.2%
risk as of Nov-2003 and we have seen a strong rise in
recent months to the high of 28.3% in August. A fall 
in consumer confidence could be to blame as is the
rise in oil prices. The drop in the market in October
also contributed to some of the increased risk. 

Two brokers came out today with lowered expectations 
for the PC sector in the 4Q. Bear Stearns lowered their
Q4 estimates slightly to only +13% growth from the prior
+14% growth. The analyst said rising energy prices
was depressing the consumer market. Merrill said the
inventory levels were increasing in expectation for
holiday sales but as of yet those sales were mediocre.
The analyst said the battle for retail shelf space 
continued to be brutal but Gateway with its eMachines
product had taken about 10% share away from H-P and
Compaq since April. According to Merrill HPQ currently
held 48% of retail desktop shelf space. eMachines is
expected to flood the market over the holidays in an
effort to capture share at lower price points. Tough
business for HPQ trying to hold their high end tactics
while the consumer is pressured for buying power. 

For those not avid watchers of the chip space you might
be surprised to look at an AMD chart. The company has
come back from a rumored demise in August at $11 to
very close to a new 52-week high at $18. Suddenly you
can find AMD chips in places you would not expect and
Intel is cutting back on new projects on almost a task
a week rate. 

Unfortunately the chip outlook is still weak. Chip
makers at the Reuters Semiconductor Summit in San 
Fran this week were still hopeful but the cloud is 
still descending. Without a robust holiday cycle the
outlook consensus was grim for inventory reductions in
time for a 2005 rebuild. The Semiconductor Assn will
update their forecasts on Wednesday and expectations
are for a drop in their outlook. The EVP for Cypress
Semi said the industry was about to pay the price in
coming months for overbuilding production capacity. 
He said there was currently 20% overcapacity compared
to 50% in 2000. Currently the association does not 
expect growth to return until 2007. NSM warned on 
Monday that sales were going to fall between 18-19% 
for Q4 compared to prior estimates of a drop of -10%.
The SOX ignored all the bad news and neared 420 today
and a three month high before the end of day selling
appeared.

A sector on a permanent high was oil but even that
bull run failed to gain traction today. With oil data
due out at 10:30 on Wednesday and pipeline explosions
in Iraq you would have expected oil to rise again. It
went the opposite direction with a close at $49.20 and
well below the $55.65 high from last week. There were
various reasons given but I expect it was due more to
rising stock prices and the end of the election cycle
that sent the prices lower. There was no terrorist
event as was predicted to send prices higher into the
election and penalize Bush. Also, with the election
over and a post election rally expected many funds
were probably dumping oil bets to raise cash to chase
the post election equity market. The morning bounce in
stocks only increased the expectations for the post 
election bounce. The afternoon drop probably shocked 
some of these funds enough to keep them on the sidelines
until a victor has been named. One interesting side note
the Euro spiked higher when Kerry was said to be ahead. 
That should tell you that a Kerry administration would
be more friendly to Europe and let bygones be bygones.
The dollar also fell compared to the Yen on the news.

The Dow had traded to a three week high at 10132 early
in the day and then faded into the early afternoon. 
The Dow bounce failed at the 100dma at 10134. That
10134 level was decent resistance with 10250 much
stronger and not that far overhead. The drop back to
10000 at the close put us right back at support for
the last week and a logical place to wait. Should we
actually get a post election rally that 10250 level 
will be a key level to watch to determine if the rally
has legs. A failure there could restart the entire 
down trend discussion. That 10250 level is the down
trend resistance from early in the year. Should the
market not like the election returns then 9900 is the
key level on the downside. A break there again could
cancel any November rally and return us to the worry
about the market predicting another recession. 

The Nasdaq hit strong resistance at 2000 and has already
broken above its February down trend at 1965. The Nasdaq
was on track to challenge the next resistance level at
2050 should a post election rally breakout but the news
drop took nearly -20 points off the optimism. The 1965-
1985 level is strong support that was built over the
last week. As long as those levels hold on any negative
election news then the overall market should remain 
sound. The SOX holding above 400 and the Russell over
580 should continue to provide support for the Nasdaq
base.

Russell Chart

 
SOX Chart

 

Tomorrows economic reports including the ISM Services,
Factory Orders, Mortgage Applications and Oil Inventory
should not matter to the market. It is all about the
election now and the bets that funds have already placed
and are ready to place tomorrow. The stage is set and
the investment community is waiting for the play to
begin. All the posturing, mudslinging, predicting and
threatening will all be behind us and real life will
begin again. According to the latest reports there are
no events that should keep us from having a winner
declared tonight but then until the votes are counted
nothing is guaranteed. 

I am not going to take any more of your time today
because what I say or any market analyst says tonight
has no bearing on our direction tomorrow. Trade the
trend tomorrow and keep your stops loose as the 
volatility could be very high. Buy any dips to the
levels I mentioned above and hope the post election
rally fable comes true. 

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 42.00 change: -2.10 

WHAT TO WATCH: Disappointing news from FRX's hypertension drug's 
latest trials sent FRX for a 4.7 percent loss.  Volume was very 
heavy and shares look ready to break important support in the 
$41-42 level.  Should this occur traders can probably target a 
move into the $33-35 range.  The bearish P&F chart currently 
points to a $37 target.




---

BMC Software - BMC - close: 17.02 change: -2.32

WHAT TO WATCH: BMC reported earnings today that beat estimates.  
Management also guided higher but investors were not happy with 
comments in the conference call.  An early morning rally turned 
into a rout and BMC crashed through support at $18.00, the 200-
dma and the $17.50 level.  This is a huge bearish engulfing 
candlestick and points to a new trend lower.  Watch for any 
follow through on the move.  




---

Linear Technology - LLTC - close: 38.43 change: +0.50

WHAT TO WATCH: The SOX semiconductor index managed a positive 
close on Tuesday but not by much.  Fortunately, that didn't stop 
LLTC from adding 1.3 percent.  What makes the move noteworthy is 
the breakout over its simple 200-dma.  This moving average has 
been technical resistance for months where LLTC has consistently 
failed.  It could see some short covering and or technical buying 
now.  Watch for psychological resistance at $40.00.




---

Covance Inc - CVD - close: 40.69 change: +1.10

WHAT TO WATCH: If you're looking for relative strength and 
momentum then CVD may be a candidate for you.  The stock has been 
a big winner over the last couple of years but CVD has spent the 
last four months consolidating sideways.  This consolidation 
narrowed during the last few weeks as the stock coiled to 
breakout over resistance at $40.00.  That breakout occurred today 
on strong volume.  Looks like a bullish entry point us.  Now we 
just need to see how the markets react to the election.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PLA $12.20 +1.17 - PLA rallied sharply +10.6 percent on big 
volume after a positive earnings report.  The move pushed PLA 
above both its exponential and simple 200-dma's and the $12.00 
mark.

YCC $28.92 +0.42 - As expected YCC broke out of its pennant 
pattern to the upside.  This is a bullish entry point. 

XLTC $23.40 -1.50 - We normally wouldn't play XLTC because its 
average volume is too low.  However, more aggressive traders may 
want to consider bearish positions with today's breakdown.

ISLE $20.24 -1.36 - ISLE has sold off sharply in the last couple 
of days with big volume.  Together with today's drop under the 
simple 200-dma looks like bad news.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

And The Winner Is...
- J. Brown

And the winner is...?  Hopefully the answer to that question is 
stocks but only if we get a clear winner.  About the only 
certainty we have in this dead-heat of an election is that 
everyone wants it to be over.  After listening all day to the 
news media I'm encouraged that there really wasn't any major 
voter scandal brewing.  No one wants a repeat of the 2000 
election.  

What can I say about investor sentiment tonight?  The markets 
were not expected to do much before the election and that's 
exactly what we've got at least with the major indices.  Everyone 
seems poised for a post-election rally.  Of course that could be 
a problem in and of itself.  Normally if everyone expects 
something to occur it doesn't.  You've probably heard it before.  
If everyone leans over the same side of the boat it just might 
tip over. 

The market internals mirrored the pre-election indecision.  One 
could say that advancing stocks and declining stocks were in a 
"statistical dead heat" today.  Up volume out paced down volume 
but only on the NASDAQ.  It may be noteworthy that the ARMS index 
or TRIN's short-term moving averages are in or nearing bearish 
territory.  

Cross your fingers and hope that there is a clear winner.  If not 
stocks are not expected to do well while both sides try and win 
the election in court.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9497
Current     : 10035

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9927
 50-dma: 10107 
200-dma: 10252



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1130

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1111
 50-dma: 1115
200-dma: 1119



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1494

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1467
 50-dma: 1424
200-dma: 1438



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.18 -0.09
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.85 +0.54
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 22.97 +0.36 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.77        880,089       673,404
Equity Only    0.55        723,572       398,622
OEX            1.42         31,369        44,520
QQQ            0.53         47,083        24,789


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          65.0    + 1     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    53.0    + 1     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   50.0    - 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       63.6    + 1.6   Bear Correction
S&P 100       61.0    + 1     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.80
10-dma: 0.90
21-dma: 1.03
55-dma: 1.02


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1459      1517
Decliners    1368      1530

New Highs     150        97
New Lows       16        36

Up Volume   1017M     1191M
Down Vol.    988M      629M

Total Vol.  2052M     1836M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/26/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders don't seem willing to place any big 
directional bets ahead of the Nov. 2nd election.  The longs
and shorts are pretty much dead even.  Small traders are 
also narrowing their bullish bias a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/05/04      421,217   435,736   (14,519)   (1.7%)
10/12/04      423,472   436,780   (13,308)   (1.5%)
10/19/04      432,945   441,041   ( 8,096)   (0.1%)
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04      137,210   114,489    22,721     9.0%
10/12/04      139,175   113,903    25,272     9.9%
10/19/04      147,148   124,827    22,321     8.2%
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials have added to their longs and reduced some shorts
but they remain strongly net bearish here.  Small traders
reduced both their longs and shorts with almost no change in
their bias.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/05/04      248,190   476,608   (228,418)  (31.5%)
10/12/04      258,457   517,805   (259,348)  (33.4%)
10/19/04      264,860   531,541   (266,681)  (33.4%)
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04      308,021     80,373   227,648    58.6%
10/12/04      309,720     62,502   247,218    66.4%
10/19/04      353,903     66,027   287,876    68.5%
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is still very little change in commercials' NDX positions.
Actually there is very little change in the small-traders'
positions too.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/05/04       55,640     32,872    22,768   25.7%
10/12/04       52,572     32,775    19,797   23.2%
10/19/04       52,630     31,940    20,690   24.4%
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04       12,254    30,693   (18,439)  (42.9%)
10/12/04        8,756    24,400   (15,644)  (47.2%)
10/19/04       10,462    25,243   (14,781)  (41.3%)
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders hedged their bets even more ahead of
the Nov. 2nd election so there is no clear up or downside
bias.  Small traders remain net bullish after the big
change two weeks ago.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/05/04       27,498    25,772    1,726       3.2%
10/12/04       24,150    22,849    1,301       2.7%
10/19/04       25,385    24,213    1,172       2.3%
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/05/04        5,531     5,539   (    8)   ( 0.0%)
10/12/04        8,814     9,167   (  353)   ( 1.9%)
10/19/04        8,327     6,015    2,312     16.1% 
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-02-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  None

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

None


==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None

==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd          53.29     +1.07
HBC     HSBC Holdings              82.32     +0.56
FNM     Fannie Mae                 71.44     +1.02
C       Citigroup                  44.99     +0.68
MFC     Manulife Financial         47.65     +1.42
FRE     Freddie Mac                67.24     +0.59

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

UNA     Unova Inc                  20.00     +4.71
PLA     Playboy Enterprises        12.20     +1.17
RNOW    Rightnow Technologies      18.28     +1.61
KEYW    Essex Corp                 13.25     +1.06
NANO    Nanometrics Inc            14.28     +2.35

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
TYC     Tyco Intl Ltd              32.72     +1.02
AXP     American Express Co        54.00     +1.09
EMR     Emerson Electric Co        65.53     +1.25
PFG     Principal Financial Group  37.99     +1.16
HAR     Harman Intl Industries    125.70     +5.55
NCR     NCR Corp                   57.00     +1.74
RYAAY   Ryanair Holdings           34.61     +5.84

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MRK     Merck & Co                 26.80     -1.48
TEVA    Teva Pharmaceuticals       23.65     -1.50
FRX     Forest Labs                42.00     -2.10
DISH    Echostar Communications    30.59     -1.03
BJS     BJ Services                46.58     -3.67
EXPD    Expeditors Intl of Wshgtn  50.70     -7.01
COT     Cott Corp                  24.97     -1.01
MNT     Mentor Corp                29.69     -5.49
EAGL    EGL Inc                    29.08     -3.09

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

CLX     Clorox Co                  53.77     -1.38
CHRW    C.H.Robinson Worldwide     52.36     -1.10
ETR     Entergy Corp               63.71     -1.48
PZZA    Papa Johns Intl Inc        31.48     -0.62

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