PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 11-04-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Bush Bounce Watch List: Hardware to Specialty retail and more Market Sentiment: Stocks Rally, Day Two ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 11-04-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10314.76 +177.70 10318.23 10127.98 2.25 bln 2510/ 742 NASDAQ 2023.63 + 19.30 2023.72 1992.07 1.85 bln 1858/1238 S&P 100 555.62 + 8.89 555.62 546.16 Totals 4368/1980 S&P 500 1161.67 + 18.47 1161.67 1142.34 W5000 11371.20 +166.41 11371.20 11190.33 SOX 412.72 + 2.60 414.15 404.02 RUS 2000 602.13 + 6.80 602.13 591.77 DJ TRANS 3562.84 + 68.20 3565.73 3492.96 VIX 13.97 - 0.07 14.02 12.95 VXO (VIX-O)14.21 + 0.03 14.35 13.05 VXN 20.16 - 0.66 20.90 19.73 Total Volume 4,460M Total UpVol 3,274M Total DnVol 1,108M Total Adv 4967 Total Dcl 2252 52wk Highs 672 52wk Lows 80 TRIN 0.80 NAZTRIN 0.82 PUT/CALL 0.87 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Bush Bounce by Jim Brown It appears on the surface a bull market has broken out and while many credit Bush it may be just a relief rally now that the election is over. Two days without constant campaign ads could make any trader happy but more than likely it is relief that there were no terrorist events and the election outcome was settled in only one day. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart The bull may be recovering his strength but his diet of economic reports has not been helping his fitness program. The Monster Employment Index this morning came in at 114 and exactly where it was in September. This could be a topping process as the index has been stuck in the 112- 114 range for the last three months. The 114 level is the highest reading for the year and is +21 points over last October's level. Job listings dropped slightly in eight of the nine regions. The numbers for the index were rescaled beginning in Oct and the 114 headline equates to a prior reading of 151. Jobless Claims fell slightly to 332,000 to continue the EKG style volatility of the last ten weeks with alternating numbers 20,000 claims apart. This is a pre hurricane level but there is no indication that it will hold at this range. Both of the above reports set the stage for tomorrows jobs report and the consensus is for a gain of +160,000 jobs. We have a consecutive streak of positive job gains dating back to September 2003 and Friday is not expected to disappoint. At least it is not expected to be negative. The whisper numbers have been less than exciting and if anything the expectations are for a consensus miss at +125,000. Friday's release is expected to set the stage for next weeks Fed meeting and the guidance that comes from that meeting. Nothing is expected to prevent them from hiking rates another 25 points but the guidance for the December meeting is the key. The Fed does not like to hike rates just before the holidays but will do it if forced. I suspect the weak economics and a weak labor market could put them on hold for December. Currently the Fed Funds Futures are only showing a 51% chance of a rate hike in December. Productivity rose slightly more than expected at +1.9% but slower than the +3.5% average over the last three quarters and +5.1% over the last six quarters. This slower growth trend is encouraging because it shows a level of growth that can be sustained. On the down side unit labor costs rose +1.6% and the highest rate of increase since Q1-2003. There was talk about the slowing productivity suggesting longer term problems for the economy. Higher productivity suppresses inflation and rising wage costs increases it. This could be the beginning of a turning point. It was the smallest increase in productivity since 2002. In stock news today the semiconductor sector took yet another hit with BAC downgrading some of the big names. KLAC and AMAT were cut to a SELL from neutral. BAC said a glut of chip inventory and strong overcapacity in the LCD market would depress earnings for quarters to come. AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, ASYT all fell on the news. The SOX struggled to breakout of negative territory despite the strong rally in progress. The SOX ended up only +2.64 points and refuses to move over 415. The Dow took a hit early as Pfizer was slammed on comments in a Canadian newspaper that 14 people had died while taking Celebrex. Pfizer fell -2.50 on the news before the Canadian equivalent of our FDA said there was no relationship between the deaths and Celebrex. Pfizer also fired back that there was no proof in any form of a relationship, was misleading and not supported by clinical facts. Pfizer repeated that historical long term studies on more than 30,000 patients had shown no cardiac risks for Celebrex. If they are lying or misrepresenting the facts it would put them out of business. I believe they are being painted with the same Merck brush and at $29 this is a buying opportunity. Merck on he other hand is in serious trouble. A FDA study posted yesterday showed that VIOXX raised heart attack risk +370% over those patients on Celebrex. Also, news continues to suggest that Merck has known this and kept it quiet for at least four years. With 30 million people having taken VIOXX the outlook for Merck is not good. We have been holding puts on MRK in the editors play section since October 10th at $30.35. MRK closed today at $27 and I am looking for it to drop into the teens once they slash the dividend to pay for litigation and settlement expenses. A major component to the equity rally today was a strong drop in oil prices with a close at $48.85, -2.05 for the day. I have been saying in this column for months that I expected oil prices to fall after the election but only on a temporary basis. The risk of a terrorist attack designed to disrupt oil before the election has passed and oil inventories rose +6.3 million bbls on Wednesday. Saudi cut prices on two grades of crude due to falling demand. Need I say more? The speculation event is over and we could just wander until we see what the winter brings in terms of weather. A cold winter could put the pressure back on and a mild winter could keep supplies intact and prices on hold. This is only a temporary dip and should be used as a long term buying opportunity for oil stocks. Fred Bergsten with the Intl Institute of Economics said today that we would likely be seeing $60 to $70 oil soon based on long term demand and current production trends. Yassar Arafat died this morning at a hospital in France but was resurrected after lunch. News stories abounded all morning that he had died. Even Bush was asked during his morning press conference how he felt about Arafat's death. Later in the afternoon a carefully worded statement from the hospital said Arafat had not died but was in a grave condition. Rumors were flying that he was brain dead and being kept clinically alive on life support until arrangements for transfer of power had been made. The hospital said they made the statement at the request of his wife, "with respect to the discretion demanded by his wife". Another quote from a high-level Palestinian official tonight says "Arafat is unconscious and has undergone a general systems collapse. He is being aided by respiratory machines and his condition appears irreversible, but reports of his death are not true." Obviously we are all subject to the rumors in the press and we will not know the real story until it plays out but I think we can read between the lines. Google was knocked for a loss and traded down to $180 based on current expiring lockups, evaluation concerns and a downgrade from UBS. UBS cut GOOG to a sell and set a price target of $160. 39 million shares will come out of lockup on Nov-15th and that will triple the current shares available to trade. GOOG traded to a high of $201 on Wednesday. None of the above events slowed the post election bounce and resistance levels were breaking across the board. The Dow rallied to close at 10314 and a gain of +177 points. Resistance at 10200 and 10250 were bowled over with hardly a sign they were crossed. The longer term down trend from February is in danger of breaking and opening the way for a much stronger move higher. While it is far too soon to be projecting new Dow highs for the year or a multi month rally ahead it does look promising. The Dow has a first test of out of trend resistance at 10350 and we could easily reach that level tomorrow. Should that level be broken the next really significant resistance range is 10450-10550. That is only a days trade away from our close tonight if we could tack on one more triple digit move to the current string of gains. Unfortunately the current nine-day rebound from 9708 has added +605 points in a very short period of time. That could be stressing the realm of potential for this week. The SPX has managed an even more impressive feat of rebounding from its 1090 low on Oct-25th to close only -2 points from a new high for the year. This is a major move and we have seen multiple resistance levels fail to make this happen. While I am very bullish on the outlook for the market as represented by the SPX I still have concerns about tomorrow. Just hitting a new high for the year at 1163 would be resistance enough but the 50% retracement level for the entire bear market drop is 1061. That is EXACTLY where the bounce on Thursday stopped. This is a major resistance point and a breakout here would be huge with no real resistance between the current level and 1250 other than a speed bump at 1075 for the 2002 resistance highs. I can't stress enough how important this resistance test will be. It is like the final hurdle in a race and having nothing but open track remaining to the finish line. Let the sprint begin! SPX Chart Russell Chart Adding to this euphoria was a remarkable day by the Russell which closed at 601.63 and only five points from a new all time closing high at 606. This is a major breakout about to happen and a move over 606 will trigger the booster rockets for the current rally. Again, like the SPX this 606 level has been resistance for all of 2004 and was resistance at the top in 2000 as well. The all time intraday high was 614 in March of 2000 but 606 was the close. This is a major hurdle but I am more confident of the Russell trading higher than the SPX on Friday. Actually I would not bet on either until next week but I would happily be wrong. I saved the worst for last with the Nasdaq tacking on a measly +19 point gain. The SOX weakness was a bitter pill for tech traders and soured their appetite for chip stocks. The Nasdaq has posted some big gains over the last month when the Dow was lagging but has failed to keep pace with the new highs of the Russell and SPX. The Nasdaq did manage to close well over 2000 and the next major resistance is 2050 with 25 point resistance increments above 2050. Nasdaq 2116 is the 25% retracement level of the bear market drop but we need another +100 points before we start worrying about that psychological trip wire. SOX Chart NYSE Composite Chart One indicator of real market strength is the NYSE Composite Index. ($NYA) Because the Dow is only 30 stocks and can be significantly impacted by only one stock, like the +4.23 gain in MO today, the NYA is a better gauge of NYSE strength. The NYA closed at 6885 today and that is an ALL TIME HIGH for the index. Yes, higher than 2000, higher than any prior level. The prior high was 6812 back in Sept-2000. With the NYA in breakout mode the next resistance could be near 7100 and again at 7500. These numbers are air pockets more than real resistance based on the recent gains. Also hitting resistance highs was the Wilshire 5000 at its 11371 close. This equals the high for all of 2004 and is also a three year high. Like I said, bullishness is breaking out all over. Wilshire 5000 Chart As a trader I see these resistance highs being tested across the board on the Russell, SPX and Wilshire and think logically that we should see some profit taking. One small fact always gets in the way. Logic rarely works in the markets. While I was cautious in the markets at the close today and took a winning futures position off the table I believe the risk is to the upside not the downside. A contrarian factor was the low on the VXO this morning at 13.05. While this should have been a warning it was justified by the strong order flow to the upside. The A/D line was 6:1 advancers to decliners and the new highs hit 674 across all markets a number we have not seen since March 8th at 704. New lows were only 84. The internal strength was very strong and it was strong yesterday as well. It definitely appears a bull market rally has broken out as analysts expected. The VXO rose in the afternoon as the rally progressed and indicated traders were increasing their put buying and not entirely confident the bounce would stick. This is good news and represents a healthy market. Oil is moving lower and terror concerns have passed with no attacks despite significant public events. Bush won and he was the market favorite for his tax cuts and business friendly positions. Traders on the floor clapped and cheered on Wednesday when news broke about the Kerry concession. Think what you want about the candidates but the market has clearly shown which it favored with the Kerry drop on Tuesday and the bounce once Bush won. A word of caution however, oil has rebounded from the 50 day average on every sell off for the last year. That average tonight is 48.70. The close was $48.75. Crude Oil Chart This market picture should produce some exciting days ahead. Whether or not Friday will be one of them is up for grabs. If we had a strong Jobs Report tomorrow I think the odds are good we could see some further moves higher. Even if it is weak I think the market would ignore it but a negative number could spoil the party at least for Friday. Next Wednesday is a Fed meeting but I doubt it will slow the buying. According to TrimTabs.com investors poured $1.8B into stock funds this week with $1B going into ETF stocks alone over the last three days. The fund inflows more than doubled last weeks numbers and money was coming out of bond funds and international funds. The bull is back and the bears have gone into hibernation. At least that is the way it looks tonight but two days does not make a post election market. Until the trend changes the game plan will be to buy the dips. Let's just hope the dips are small and the rebounds are strong. Sell Too Soon! Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Dell Inc - DELL - close: 36.81 change: +0.45 WHAT TO WATCH: DELL has been a big winner the last few days. The stock bounced from the $34 level on Oct. 26th and is now nearing major resistance at the $37.00 level. Technicals have turned positive and readers can watch it for a breakout. If DELL can push through the $37 mark it would produce a new spread, triple- top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart, which happens to already point to a $45 target. Watch for earnings on November 11th. --- Tractor Supply - TSCO - close: 35.80 change: -0.42 WHAT TO WATCH: Hmm... TSCO is looking like a bearish candidate. The October rally is beginning to fade and there has been no participation in the market's post-election bounce. The stock is already suffering in a long-term trend of lower highs and lower lows. Now the MACD indicator is beginning to roll over and suggest a new leg down. Consider shorts under $35.00 and target $31-30. --- Williams Cos - WMB - close: 13.11 change: +0.33 WHAT TO WATCH: We're still watching shares of WMB. The company reported earnings today that beat estimates by 7 cents per share. Volume was very strong and WMB broke through resistance at the $13.00 mark to hit new two-year highs. Most energy bulls are pretty positive on natural gas and WMB could be a way to play it. Watch for a bounce from $12.80 or a new high over $13.21. --- NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 15.41 change: +0.28 WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stocks didn't do quite so well today after a Wall Street firm downgraded the group. NVDA managed to post a 1.8 percent gain anyway. Bulls can be encouraged by the breakout over its simple 100-dma but the stock remains under resistance near $15.75-16.00. Watch for the move higher and then consider positions, especially now after the company's earnings report. NVDA managed to best estimates by 6 cents per share. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- K $44.02 +0.75 - Kellogg may not be the most exciting stock in the market but shares were moving strongly higher today. K has been consolidating between $40 and $43 for the past six months and is now breaking out to new five-year highs. The next level of resistance is the $50.00 region. MYL $16.42 -0.22 - There has been no participation in the market's post-election rally. Shares are nearing support near $16.00. Look for the breakdown. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Stocks Rally, Day Two - J. Brown Stocks soared for a second day in a row as Wall Street celebrates a relatively clean end to the election. The fact that the election is over and without any terror incident is a big confidence booster for investors. Adding to the bullish euphoria was a four-percent drop in crude oil prices. The December contract for crude closed under $49 a barrel for the first time in over a month. Overall the market internals were very bullish. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by 11-to-3 on the NYSE and 18-to-11 on the NASDAQ. New highs soared for the second day in a row. Today there was more than 500 new highs between the NYSE and NASDAQ. Up volume was more than three times down volume on the NYSE and about twice the down volume on the NASDAQ. Overall volume was heavy with a very strong day for the Big Board. These kind of bullish internals are exactly what traders want to see in a rally. Traders witnessed tons of bullish breakouts in individual stocks. One in particular was Dow-component Wal-mart (WMT), which soared 3.2 percent and broke out over resistance at $55 and its simple 200-dma. The company gave a mixed October sales report. Revenues were low but gross margins were stronger than expected. A change in the tax rate helped and the company guided net profits toward the upper end of its guidance. WMT's strength helped propel the RLX retail index to new all-time highs. Investors have been expecting a post-election, fourth quarter rally and so far it's coming true. The Dow Industrial's breakout over resistance at the top of its downward channel is very bullish. The S&P 500's breakout over 1160 to hit new 2 1/2 year highs is very bullish. The NASDAQ's move over 2000 is encouraging. Everything seems poised to run. The only thing that really concerns me is that so many stocks and so many sector-specific indices look overbought already. Yet even though stocks probably need to pause they might not. Anyone waiting on the sidelines doesn't want to be left behind. This has pushed the VIX/VXO indicators to bearish reversal levels. Normally this would be a caution flag and not a good spot to consider new bullish positions. You can bet that there is probably a crowd just waiting to buy the dips. Tomorrow will be influenced by the Jobs report. Estimates range from +160,000 to +180,000 jobs. As long as the number is close stocks should weather the news pretty well. Odds are growing that after a week of gains stocks probably need to see a little profit taking. If the jobs number severely disappoints it could exacerbate any dip. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9497 Current : 10314 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9997 50-dma: 10110 200-dma: 10248 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 1018 Current : 1161 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1125 50-dma: 1118 200-dma: 1119 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1516 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1477 50-dma: 1430 200-dma: 1437 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.97 -0.07 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.21 +0.03 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 20.16 -0.66 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.87 1,044,648 910,493 Equity Only 0.64 735,009 469,860 OEX 1.15 66,948 77,306 QQQ 0.58 46,415 26,731 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 66.8 + 1.8 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 55.0 + 2 Bull Confirmed*** Dow Indust. 56.6 + 6.6 Bear Correction*** S&P 500 66.0 + 2.4 Bear Correction S&P 100 65.0 + 4 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.90 10-dma: 0.93 21-dma: 1.05 55-dma: 1.04 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2218 1814 Decliners 609 1181 New Highs 378 139 New Lows 9 29 Up Volume 1755M 1156M Down Vol. 448M 605M Total Vol. 2224M 1813M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/26/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders don't seem willing to place any big directional bets ahead of the Nov. 2nd election. The longs and shorts are pretty much dead even. Small traders are also narrowing their bullish bias a bit. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 421,217 435,736 (14,519) (1.7%) 10/12/04 423,472 436,780 (13,308) (1.5%) 10/19/04 432,945 441,041 ( 8,096) (0.1%) 10/26/04 441,263 445,992 ( 4,729) (0.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 137,210 114,489 22,721 9.0% 10/12/04 139,175 113,903 25,272 9.9% 10/19/04 147,148 124,827 22,321 8.2% 10/26/04 138,201 121,275 16,926 6.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials have added to their longs and reduced some shorts but they remain strongly net bearish here. Small traders reduced both their longs and shorts with almost no change in their bias. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 248,190 476,608 (228,418) (31.5%) 10/12/04 258,457 517,805 (259,348) (33.4%) 10/19/04 264,860 531,541 (266,681) (33.4%) 10/26/04 276,128 509,552 (233,424) (29.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 308,021 80,373 227,648 58.6% 10/12/04 309,720 62,502 247,218 66.4% 10/19/04 353,903 66,027 287,876 68.5% 10/26/04 345,908 64,061 281,847 68.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is still very little change in commercials' NDX positions. Actually there is very little change in the small-traders' positions too. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 55,640 32,872 22,768 25.7% 10/12/04 52,572 32,775 19,797 23.2% 10/19/04 52,630 31,940 20,690 24.4% 10/26/04 53,233 31,323 21,910 26.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 12,254 30,693 (18,439) (42.9%) 10/12/04 8,756 24,400 (15,644) (47.2%) 10/19/04 10,462 25,243 (14,781) (41.3%) 10/26/04 10,521 25,388 (14,867) (42.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders hedged their bets even more ahead of the Nov. 2nd election so there is no clear up or downside bias. Small traders remain net bullish after the big change two weeks ago. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 27,498 25,772 1,726 3.2% 10/12/04 24,150 22,849 1,301 2.7% 10/19/04 25,385 24,213 1,172 2.3% 10/26/04 25,707 24,855 852 1.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 5,531 5,539 ( 8) ( 0.0%) 10/12/04 8,814 9,167 ( 353) ( 1.9%) 10/19/04 8,327 6,015 2,312 16.1% 10/26/04 8,405 6,336 2,069 14.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 11-04-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: OVTI, PLAB, SFNT, AFG Stock Splits Announcements: TASR Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== OVTI - tech stock long - Be careful here. The SOX semiconductor index doesn't look that strong. Be sure that you'r happy with your stop loss. PLAB - tech stock long - We are growing more concerned over PLAB. The stock is slipping back towards the $17.00 level and its simple 200-dma. There has been no participation in the post- election bounce. If we don't see some strength soon we may close PLAB shortly. SFNT - tech stock long - SFNT was strong on Wednesday but there was not any follow through on Thursday. Shares are still struggling with the bottom of the gap down near $33.75. Traders may want to consider taking some profits here. We may do the same and close SFNT soon. If shares hit $33.75, we'll close the play. AFG - non-tech short - Even the post-election bounce can not provide enough juice to push AFG through hardened resistance at the $31.00 level. The stock has tried three or four times in the past two days and failed. Technically this would be a low risk entry point to initiate new short positions. ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== TASR shocks with a 2-for-1 stock split This afternoon TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR) announced that it will split its stock 2-for-1. The split will take effect in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend. This dividend will be payable on or about November 29th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of November 15th. Post-split TASR will have approximately 59.2 million shares outstanding. This is TASR's third split this year. About the company: TASER International, Inc. provides advanced non-lethal devices for use in the law enforcement, military, private security and personal defense markets. TASER devices use proprietary technology to safely incapacitate dangerous, combative or high-risk subjects who pose a risk to law enforcement officers, innocent citizens or themselves. TASER technology saves lives every day, and the use of TASER devices dramatically reduces injury rates for police officers and suspects. TASER technology is currently in testing or deployment at over 6,000 law enforcement and correctional agencies in the U.S. and abroad. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change KFT Kraft Foods 34.52 +1.09 TM Toyota Motor Corp 78.64 +0.94 BP BP Plc 60.15 +0.87 WFC Wells Fargo & Co 61.42 +1.12 CVX ChevronTexaco 54.39 +1.22 BAC Bank of America 46.25 +0.61 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HXL Hexcel Corp 16.99 +1.04 CBK Christopher & Banks 18.75 +2.34 DHB DHB Industries 15.74 +1.69 VTIV Ventiv Health 18.69 +1.30 MKTW Marketwatch.com 16.06 +1.47 IFLO I-Flow Corp 16.74 +1.92 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- WMT Wal-Mart Stores 56.26 +1.78 MO Altria Group Inc 54.23 +4.23 CVS CVS Corp 46.85 +2.47 GPS Gap Inc 22.14 +1.90 UNP Union Pacific 65.50 +1.69 BNI Burlington Nrthrn Santa Fe 44.00 +1.55 YUM Yum! Brands Inc 45.72 +1.48 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- QCOM Qualcomm Inc 38.07 -1.80 BOBJ Business Objects 21.07 -4.19 WLS Williams Lyon Homes 67.59 -2.11 IPMT Ipayment 40.40 -4.24 AWIN Arch Wireless Inc 26.60 -2.59 JOSB Jos A Bank 26.59 -4.00 SAM Boston Beer Co 22.94 -2.20 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- GOOG Google 184.70 -6.97 CSG Cadbury Schwepps 33.40 -0.13 TSCO Tractor Supply Co 35.80 -0.42 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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