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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/08/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 11-08-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Passing Time  
Watch List: Shipping to Pizzas and more!  


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
      11-08-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10391.31 +  3.77 10405.69 10361.44 1.70 bln 1174/1645
NASDAQ   2039.25 +  0.31  2044.53  2033.79 1.61 bln 1373/1645
S&P 100   557.30 -  0.60   558.02   555.96   Totals 2547/3290
S&P 500  1164.89 -  1.28  1166.86  1162.32
SOX       418.61 +  0.78   421.35   416.18
RUS 2000  602.08 -  2.21   605.51   601.21
DJ TRANS 3581.97 +  9.47  3585.75  3561.77
VIX        13.80 -  0.04    14.48    13.67
VXO (VIX-O)13.92 -  0.44    14.92    13.77
VXN        19.22 -  0.25    20.23    19.13
Total Volume 3,311M
Total UpVol  1,584M
Total DnVol  1,608M
Total Adv  2547
Total Dcl  3290
52wk Highs  420 
52wk Lows    40
TRIN       0.72
PUT/CALL   0.64 
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Passing Time
Jonathan Levinson

Equity bulls ran the clock on hapless bears today, as intraday 
downphases succeeded only in moving the price sideways.  The Dow 
and Nasdaq finished fractionally higher while the SPX finished 
fractionally lower.

It was a quiet day, particularly in the wake of Friday's busy 
session.  Volume was significantly lighter today for QQQ, while 
near average for the indices.  The CBOT reported that on Friday, 
more than 4.3M contracts were traded, more than half of which 
electronically.  The 4.3M figure was the second heaviest day for 
the exchange, while the 50%+ figure set a new record.



Daily Dow Chart


The Dow eked out a 3.77 point gain to close at 10391.31. I have 
squeezed one years' worth of daily prints onto the chart to 
provide some longer term perspective-  anyone wishing to see more 
daily candle detail is urged to look at the daily YM chart in 
tonight's Futures Wrap.

The 1-year daily chart shows a strong rally off the October lows 
that is most likely still in progress and will so remain until 
the price is at least back into the declining channel below 
10220.  In the meantime, the daily cycle continues to press 
higher, with immediate upside resistance at 10425, then at 10500 
and 10560. 


Daily S&P 500 Chart


The SPX fell 0.11% to close at 1164.89.  The move failed at a 
high of 1166.86 and bounced from a higher low of 1162.32.  While 
it's possible that Friday's high volume upside doji was the 
terminal move in this strong but overbought daily cycle upphase, 
bears will need to see a move below the 1150 level on a closing 
basis to suggest a reversal in the upphase.  The first sign of 
trouble will be a break of 1160, while confirmation will come on 
a break of 1146.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


The Nasdaq managed a .31% gain, which was impressive given that 
such occurred during an intraday cycle downphase.  The high 
printed at 2044, while the low was 2033.  Above 2045, next 
resistance is at 2070 and 2105.  The daily cycle oscillators are 
oversold here, and bears can hope for a terminal upside surge to 
finish off this cycle and pave the way for the next downphase.  
If bears can close the Nasdaq below 2020-25, we should see the 
upphase stall, but it should take a close below 1996 to reverse 
it.


Weekly TNX Chart


Ten year notes followed through on last week's weakness, with the 
ten year note yield (TNX) rising 2.9 bps to close at 4.215%.  On 
the weekly chart, note that the latest weekly candle is based 
solely on today's move, as with the weekly crude oil chart below.  
The weekly cycle upphase about which I've been writing has been 
strengthening off the rising lower trendline, and continues to 
coincide with the daily cycle upphase (see tonight's Futures 
Wrap).  Above current levels, next resistance is in the 4.3% 
area, followed by 4.4%.  

A large 11.25B overnight repo was announced this morning by the 
Fed's open market desk, refunding the 7B maturing today and 
leaving an additional 4.25B on the table.  This money may have 
found its way into the treasury bill auctions that took place 
today, with 19B in 6 month bills generating a bid-to-cover ratio 
of 1.84, 21B of 3 month bills generating a bid-to-cover ratio of 
1.89, and 22B of 3 year notes generating a 2.24 bid-to-cover.



Weekly chart of Crude oil


Crude oil declined again today, kicking off the third week since 
its 52-week and record high (in nominal terms- the 1980 high 
would have been $90 in today's dollars).  News sources attributed 
the continued weakness to expectations that existing supplies 
will be sufficient to meet demand for the winter, and recovering 
production in the Gulf of Mexico.   Tensions remained high, 
however, on news of increased violence in Fallujah carrying over 
from the weekend, with Reuters reporting the killing of more than 
40 insurgents.  This was compounded by a lack of resolution in 
the Nigerian labor troubles and Russian YUKOS' likely bankruptcy, 
but it was the grounding of a tanker in the Suez Canal that 
occupied headlines this afternoon.


Bloomberg reported that approximately 135 ships were waiting 
today after The Tropic Brilliance ran aground 2 days ago carrying 
142,547 tons of crude oil.  This mishap closed the Canal for the 
first time since 1975.  As of 2003, the Energy Department 
reported that 1.3M bpd move through the Canal, and while there 
was a chance that The Tropic Brilliance would be unloaded and 
floated out as soon as today, crude oil held above a low of 
48.625 on the Nymex all day, closing lower by 1.05% at 49.10.


The weekly chart of crude oil futures shows a steep drop from the 
October high, with first support asserting itself in the 48-49 
area, below which there's stronger support between 45 and 46, 
then at 42.  Note the bearish stochastic divergence that was in 
play for most of the runup above 48.


It was a quiet news day overall.  There were no major economic 
reports released, and tomorrow's lone report will be Wholesale 
Inventories for September to be announced at 10AM, with 
economists expecting a rise of 0.7% after August's 0.9% increase.

In corporate news, TASR took a jump on news that the 
Transportation Security Administration of the US Homeland 
Security Department has approved the onboard use of TASR's 
weapons by air marshals on flights to and from the US.  TASR 
closed higher by 16.4% at 54.12.

Insurance group CNO announced Q3 earnings of 36 cents per share 
of 57.9M, well ahead of last year's Q3 figures of 17 cents or 
18.9M.  The company cited its ongoing effort to improve 
operations and risk management, and reaffirmed its 2005 outlook 
of $1.71 per share .  The 36 cent EPS figure beat estimates by 2 
cents.  CNO added 7.29% to close at 17.95.

Drugmaker PFE  disclosed in an SEC filing on Friday that NY A-G 
Elliot Spitzer has requested documentation regarding trials and 
possible promotion of certain of its products for uses other than 
as approved by the FDA.  A similar request was received by the 
company from Connecticut's Attorney-General in connection with 
Zoloft, and there was mention of its Bextra product as well. PFE 
lost 1.32% to close at 28.41.

Oil & gas company HEC broke even for Q3 on net income of 795K and 
revenues of 8.3M, reversing a loss in Q3 2003 of 1 penny per 
share or 806K on revenue of 7.4M.  HEC added 1.85% to close at 
.55.
 
Airliner BAB reported Q2 earnings before tax of 220M pounds on 
revenue that rose 2.2% to 2.02B pounds.  The company announced 
that it would not be paying a dividend as fuel costs rose 12.4% 
to 271M pounds.  Despite hedging, the company expects to pay 245M 
pounds more for fuel than last year.  Passenger and cargo 
surcharges are expected to offset 160M pounds' worth of this 
increase.   BAB finished lower by 2.83% at 40.85.

Silver and gold miner CDE reported a Q3 loss of 18M or 8 cents 
per share, down from a 10 cent loss in Q3 2003, but noted that 
2.1M of current operating profits will be reported in Q4 due to a 
temporary plant closure.  Revenues were higher by 30% to 31.3M.  
CDE lost 3.84% to close at 5.01.

MSFT was weaker on news that the company estimates its exposure 
to antitrust claims at 950M, 200M more than the figure disclosed 
in its latest 10K filing.  These figures don't include a payment 
of 536M to be made to networker NOVL and to the US Computer and 
Communications Industry Association in settlement of antitrust 
claims arising from NOVL's Netware product in its landmark 
antitrust case in the European Union.  NOVL also plans to file a 
claim arising from alleged anticompetitive practices that have 
caused prejudice to its WordPerfect suite (WordPerfect and 
Quattro Pro) during the 1990s.  The Netware payment resulted in a 
3 cent charge for MSFT's previously reported Q1 results of 26 
cents.  MSFT's updated results in light of the NOVL settlement 
were 23 cents on earnings of 2.53B.  MSFT lost 3 cents to close 
at 29.28, while NOVL finished higher by 9.48% at 7.51.

GE announced that it will be selling 60% of its stake in GE 
Capital International Services (GECIS), its global outsourcing 
business, to General Atlantic Partners and Oak Hill Capital 
Partners.  The company said that GECIS will "no longer limit its 
cost-saving, business support services to GE and GE customers ... 
We will now have unrestricted access to the world market."  The 
company intends to expand into Eastern Europe and China.   GE 
lost 7 cents to close at 35.12.

Later in the session, the NASD announced that it has charged 
financial advisors HRB with fraud in connection with its sales of 
Enron bonds between Oct. 29, 2001 and Nov. 27, 2001, prior to the 
Enron bankruptcy.  The NASD alleged that HRB's sales force failed 
to disclose the extent of the risks associated with the bonds.  
HRB responded that its sales and disclosures were sufficient in 
light of the information available at the time, and that it 
expects to prevail at the eventual hearing.  HRB finished higher 
by .45% at 49.59.

Resort developer and operator IDR announced a Q1 loss of 6.7M or 
14 cents per share, down from a profit of 2 cents per share or 
938M.  The company said that it expected the loss, which it said 
resulted from the timing of various construction projects.  The 
stock declined on the news, finishing lower by .76% at 19.55.

It's unsurprising that today was a throwaway session as the 
market awaits CSCO's results tomorrow and the Fed's rate decision 
on Wednesday.  Many were expecting a strong rally today, and the 
charts suggest that it was merely deferred by the long, tiring 
range that printed.  Bears can hope that Friday marked the daily 
cycle exhaustion top, but better than hope will be confirmation 
in the form of lower daily highs and lows.  Until that occurs, 
the trend is your friend.  With any luck, there will be more 
movement tomorrow, as suggested by today's inside range.  A 
violation of either today's high or lows will be the first sign 
of a possible directional move in the direction of the break, but 
watch for volume to confirm it-  as we saw today, the price can 
drift this way and that, and on low volume reversals are much 
more likely. 
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Frontline Ltd - FRO - close: 53.00 change: +1.57

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding FRO the play list 
tonight as a bullish candidate.  FRO, the largest tanker company, 
has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of years and 
now shares are very long-term overbought.  However, short-term 
the five-week consolidation appears to be over and FRO is 
breaking out to the upside again.  Short-term technicals are 
positive and its MACD indicator is nearing a new buy signal.  
Watch for a move over the $54.00 level as a potential entry 
point.  Target a move to $60.00.




---

CEC Entertainment - CEC - close: 39.29 change: +0.87

WHAT TO WATCH: Better known as Chuck E. Cheeses, CEC is nearing 
resistance at $39.30.  A breakout here would put CEC at new all-
time highs.  The P&F chart is already in breakout mode with a 
triple-top breakout buy signal and a $52.00 target.  We would 
watch for a move over $40.00 before considering positions. 




---

EGL Inc - EAGL - close: 34.48 change: +2.05

WHAT TO WATCH: We don't see any specific news for EAGL's 6.3 
percent rally today.  Although it could just be a continuation of 
last week's post-earnings rally.  At this point in the game it 
could be a partial short-squeeze.  Short-interest was more than 
five percent of the 35 million share float.  Of course if they 
all covered their short today's 1.9 million share volume would be 
enough.  Today's volume was almost four times the average.  The 
move has produced a new MACD buy signal and a technical breakout 
over resistance at $33.00.  Watch for a dip back to $33 and 
consider a bounce as a bullish entry point. 




---

Black Box Corp - BBOX - close: 40.80 change: +1.32 

WHAT TO WATCH: BBOX has spent the last several days digesting its 
gains from late-October when shares vaulted from the $25.00 
level.  Now the stock is on the move again and breaking through 
resistance in the $40.50 region.  Watch the exponential 200-dma 
directly overhead near $41.90 as it is the next level of 
resistance.  P&F chart traders will note that BBOX has reversed 
from a sell signal back into a buy signal with a $49 target.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

VASC $9.50 +1.08 - VASC produced a huge move today breaking out 
over multiple levels of resistance including the exponential 200-
dma, the simple 100-dma, the simple 200-dma and the $9.00-9.15 
region.

CAMD $8.78 +0.88 - CAMD surged 11 percent and broke through 
resistance in the $8.50-8.65 range.  Volume was very heavy and 
shares are now testing the exponential 200-dma.

JTX $21.61 +0.51 - JTX has broken out from its bullish 
consolidation over the last six-weeks.  This could be an entry 
point.
 

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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 11-08-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments: TSCO, WGR   

Stock Splits
  Announcements:  None      


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

TSCO - non-tech short -
  TSCO is beginning to roll over as expected.
  The MACD indicator is nearing a new sell signal.
 
 
WGR - non-tech short -
  WGR tried to bounce this morning and made it 
  to $28.70 before selling hit fast and hard and 
  pushing shares back under the $28 level and its
  simple and exponential 200-dma's.  


==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          59.84     +0.66
BA      Boeing Co                  52.07     +0.92
CAH     Cardinal Health            49.01     +1.66
NOC     Northrop Grumman           54.51     +0.71
FPL     FPL Group Inc              71.00     +0.52
IR      Ingersoll-Rand             72.55     +0.66

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CNO     Conseco Inc                17.95     +1.22
DHB     DHB Industries             16.44     +1.16
CYD     China Yuchai Int Ltd       16.94     +2.91
CLRK    Color Kinetics             19.31     +2.51
AGEN    Antigenics Inc              7.99     +1.32
NFLD    Northfield Labs            15.50     +1.82

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
LTD     Limited Brand              26.78     +1.20
ELN     Elan Corp                  29.00     +1.12
X       U.S.Steel                  42.97     +2.56
PPC     Pilgrim's Pride Corp       33.12     +4.29
ESI     ITT Educational Services   41.15     +3.10
NTES    Netease.com Inc            51.87     +3.11
EAGL    EGL Inc                    34.48     +2.05

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BHI     Baker Hughes Inc           40.75     -1.45
KWK     Quicksilver Resources      29.90     -1.76
PTP     Platinum Underwriters      27.30     -1.25
WLL     Whiting Petroleum          28.25     -1.25
JOSB    Jos A Bank Clothiers       25.59     -1.15

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

CVC     Cablevision Systems        20.03     -1.06
PIXR    Pixar                      79.25     -5.20
WWW     Wolverine World Wide       29.18     -2.57
HYDL    Hydril                     43.34     -2.36

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.








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