PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 11-10-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: It Was a Setup Watch List: Medical, Energy, Cake and more! =============================================================== MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) =============================================================== 11-10-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10385.48 - 0.89 10439.40 10378.59 1.88 bln 1621/1204 NASDAQ 2034.56 - 8.77 2047.25 2032.37 1.84 bln 1614/1394 S&P 100 555.54 - 1.36 558.85 555.51 Totals 3235/2598 S&P 500 1162.91 - 1.17 1169.35 1162.51 SOX 405.76 - 10.04 415.80 404.90 RUS 2000 609.61 + 2.97 611.93 605.46 DJ TRANS 3574.36 - 13.35 3594.87 3568.18 VIX 13.80 - 0.53 13.51 12.79 VXO (VIX-O)13.63 - 0.01 14.08 13.18 VXN 19.41 + 0.22 19.91 19.16 Total Volume 3,729M Total UpVol 1,685M Total DnVol 1,966M Total Adv 3235 Total Dcl 2598 52wk Highs 407 52wk Lows 42 TRIN 1.47 PUT/CALL 0.70 =============================================================== =========== Market Wrap =========== It Was a Setup Linda Piazza Dictionary.com defines "setup" as "a contest prearranged to result in an easy or faked victory," among other definitions. Both bulls and bears fear that the day's events set them up for someone else's victory. A study of daily charts shows how close many indices are to breakdowns or breakouts. Annotated Daily Chart for the SPX: Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow: Annotated Daily Chart for the Nasdaq: Annotated Daily Chart for the GHA: Annotated Daily Chart for the SOX: Annotated Daily Chart for the Russell 2000: Cisco (CSCO) set techs up for a decline, but the company had help from tech bulls. Tuesday, Marc Eckelberry of the OptionInvestor Futures Monitor had pointed out that CSCO's November 20 strike had a put/call ratio of .11, indicating irrational optimism about CSCO's earnings report. The stock was set up for a decline on any disappointment, and there was a disappointment. CSCO closed Wednesday at $18.44, down $1.31 or 6.63 percent. Despite disappointment over CSCO's Q1 results, network-related stocks had performed well in Europe, but the NWX, the Networking Index, gapped lower at the U.S. open and headed down throughout the day. The NWX closed down 1.14 percent. Early Wednesday, analysts had begun cutting ratings on tech- related stocks or sectors. UBS cut HPQ's rating to neutral, citing valuation and its preference for IBM or Dell. However, the company also cut Dell's rating to neutral. UBS was busy in the tech sector, raising its price target for Lucent Technologies (LU) in one bright spot for techs. Morgan Stanley lowered its outlook on the semiconductor capital equipment sector to a cautious one from its previous in-line view. The firm noted that they were seeing a downturn rather than a mere correction in capital spending. The firm also lowered price targets for AMAT, NVLS, CYMI, KLAC, and LRCX. More setups were to come, setups that might have helped the FOMC formulate a decision and the accompanying statement later in the day. Because Thursday is Veteran's Day, government offices will be closed, shaking up this week's usual schedule of government releases. In addition to the usual batch of economic releases Wednesday morning, Initial Jobless Claims, October's Import Price Index, and September's Trade Balance were all slotted into the 8:30 time period. Those numbers appeared to set markets up for an early-morning rally, but futures dropped off their highs instead, perhaps on worry over the Fed's interpretation of the numbers or perhaps after a look at the underpinnings of some of those numbers. Unemployment claims numbered slightly fewer than expected, up only 2,000, with the four-week average down 5,500 to 336,000. That was touted as the lowest level since July, and sure to have been factored into the Fed's decision. September's Trade Balance had been expected to remain flat at $54 billion. Instead, the number surprised by falling to $51.6 billion. Import prices rose 1.5 percent, but fell 0.2 percent ex oil. The average price of a barrel of oil increased to $37.62, a record high. Market pundits noted that hurricanes and other factors disrupted shipments of imported oil in September. That capped import prices, they concluded. Otherwise, those prices might have risen more. With this in mind, some theorized that the deficit will widen again in October as a result of resumed shipments, and this month's deficit was no lightweight, still the third largest. Exports rose 0.8 percent to their highest-ever levels, but imports from China also rose to a record high. Some experts believe that the dollar, already weakening to record levels over the last week, may be weakened further by the widening gap in the current account. Many central banks, most notably those in Asia, have been making efforts to shore up the dollar against their currencies. A weak dollar helps U.S. exporters, but hurts Asian and European exporters, as well as U.S. domestic companies paying for imported products, particularly fuel. Currency traders weren't fooled by the lower deficit this month, looking forward to expectations for October. The dollar plummeted through the open, but then sprang up afterwards, forming a neutral triangle at the top of the day's range. The Department of Energy's usual Wednesday release of crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories followed. DOE figures showed crude inventories up 1.8 million barrels, slightly lower than the expected 2.0 million increase. Distillate and gasoline inventories both fell, by 100,000 and 400,000 barrels, respectively. Estimates had been for a rise in distillate inventories of 400,000 barrels, but the American Petroleum Institute's figures disputed the DOE's. The API stated that distillate inventories rose by 2.21 million barrels. Distillates include heating oil, increasingly a focus as winter approaches. Some energy experts worry about heating oil supplies this winter, but the International Energy Agency attempted to calm those worries, lowering its estimate of global oil demand through the end of this year by 100,000 barrels a day. The high energy costs proved a major factor in that decreased demand, producing a global economic slowdown according to the IEA. That slowdown was also certainly be factored into the Fed's decision. Crude prices initially rose after the release of the inventories number, then dropped to a new recent low before rising again. Although many have been cheered by crude's fall from its plus- $55.00 per barrel cost, it may be trying to bounce again from support at its last swing high. Like some indices and stocks, it's set up for a bounce or a tumble through support. Annotated Daily Chart for Crude: At 2:00, October's Monthly Budget Statement was released, with the FOMC Rate Decision following closely afterward at 2:15. The budget deficit was in-line with expectations, at $57.3 billion, and the Fed's decision to raise rates a quarter point was also in line with expectations. The accompanying statement to the FOMC decision mentioned the improving labor market and asserted that output was still growing despite those higher energy prices. That statement read much as the previous meeting's had, with the Fed feeling that risks to price stability and sustainable growth were balanced. The statement also asserted that inflation remained muted, an assertion that some economists dispute, but that energy costs and uneven global growth must be watched. Whether or not inflationary pressure are muted, the reaction to the FOMC decision was muted, too. CNBC's cameras focused on pit traders after the announcement, faces upturned as they looked up at the boards. While Ron Insana quoted from the Fed's statement, they stood silent, still scanning the boards. A few hands raised, palms out, to sell; a few hands raised, palms up, to buy. Most stood as if paralyzed. The markets appeared to be, too, and that's where they ended the day, ready to rumble or ready to tumble. Another Dictionary.com definition for "setup" is "a play or pass that creates a scoring opportunity." Many markets are set up for just that opportunity, but with the direction yet to be determined. Be cautious with all entries. Some measurements, including bullish sentiment, 9-period daily RSI, daily CCI, and others reveal worrisome overbought levels on some indices. The climb on some has been meteoric, but as the following chart displays, prices can continue climbing long after indicators signal overbought conditions, when indices or stocks seem to be defying gravity. Those who follow my posts in OptionInvestor's Market Monitor have seen this chart already. Due to space requirements, it wasn't possible to capture the beginning the rally in mid- December. Annotated Daily Chart For the OEX: This chart warns that it's as risky to catch soaring knives as it is to reach for falling ones, even when all the signs are in place for a retreat. Watch the benchmarks listed on the charts above, place cautious bets, and be willing to be wrong and change sides if markets react differently than you expect. Thursday, bond markets will close along with government offices. Some economic calendars still include the release of information on natural gas inventories at 10:30, but that may be a mistake as others listed it for today. Other than that, markets will have little to distract them from sorting through bullish and bearish factors and deciding on a direction. A day ahead of time, my thanks and those of the OIN staff to all veterans who have served to protect us all. ================================================================= WATCH LIST ================================================================= The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Aspect Medical Systems - ASPM - close: 20.57 change: +1.16 WHAT TO WATCH: ASPM just broke out over major, round-number, psychological resistance at the $20.00 mark to hit new four-year highs. Volume was very strong on today's 6 percent gain. We can't find any news to account for today's gain or yesterday's strong performance. Readers may want to keep an eye on it for a potential dip. The bullish P&F chart shows a new buy signal and a $28 target. --- Primewest Energy - PWI - close: 22.07 change: +0.56 WHAT TO WATCH: PWI is another energy-related stock that looks ready to begin another leg higher. The stock is already in an up trend that began last May. Now after peaking above $22.50 in October the stock has consolidated the last four weeks. Its technicals are turning positive again and its MACD is nearing a new buy signal. Shares have also found support at their rising 40 and 50-dma's. Aggressive traders may want to consider positions now while conservative traders can look for a move over $22.50. --- Sara Lee - SLE - close: 23.78 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: SLE just broke out from its recent seven-day trading range between $23.00 and $23.50. Today's 2.19 percent rally and breakout was fueled by above average volume. We think SLE is worth watching as it nears major, long-term resistance at the $24.00 level. Such a move would help pave the way for a run toward the P&F bullish target near $36. --- Reuters Group - RTRSY - close: 41.65 change: +0.72 WHAT TO WATCH: RTRSY has been stuck in a trading range between $40 and $42 for the last couple of weeks. The consolidation has been a combination of RTRSY digesting its gains from $35 to $41 and an attempt to build up enough steam to breakout over its simple 200-week moving average. Watch for the move over $42.00 and consider it a bullish entry point. The bullish P&F chart currently points to a $56 target. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- FRO $55.40 +1.70 - We continue to suggest that FRO is presenting us a bullish entry point. CEC $40.29 +0.29 - CEC continues to show strength. HVT $19.59 +1.70 - HVT has broken through major resistance at $19.00 and its simple 200-dma. OCR $30.45 +0.51 - OCR has broken above resistance at $30.00 and is nearing the 100-dma. This could be an entry point for a run toward $34-35. ========================================================== To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 11-10-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: None Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) New Bearish Plays: ASKJ Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) New Bullish plays: CHK, OMM, RIG New Bearish Plays: CHH Stock Splits Announcements: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== None ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 24.10 change: -1.55 stop: 26.51 Company Description: Ask Jeeves, Inc. provides consumers and advertisers with information retrieval products across a diverse portfolio of Web sites, portals and desktop search applications. Ask Jeeves' search and search-based portal brands include: Ask Jeeves (Ask.com and Ask.co.uk); Ask Jeeves Japan (Ask.jp, a joint venture); Ask Jeeves for Kids (AJKids.com); Excite (excite.com); iWon (iwon.com); My Search (mysearch.com); My Way (myway.com); My Web Search (mywebsearch.com) and Teoma (teoma.com). Ask Jeeves also owns the search technology Teoma, proprietary natural language processing technology, as well as portal and ad serving technologies. In addition to powering several of the Ask Jeeves brands, the Company syndicates its technologies to help companies increase revenue through powerful search. Ask Jeeves' advertising division, AJinteractive, provides advertisers with targeted tools to reach a broad base of valuable customers. Ask Jeeves, Inc. is headquartered in Emeryville, California, with offices throughout the United States, as well as in London, England and Dublin, Ireland. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: ASKJ has already been suffering ever since its October 27th earnings report. The stock gapped down and has been trying to consolidate above round-number support at the $25.00 level ever since. As of today that support has failed. Shares dropped more than six percent with very heavy volume on news that MSFT was going to unveil its new search engine tomorrow. MSFT has been feverishly working on a new search engine for months to combat rivals like ASKJ and YHOO but their main target is GOOG. Technicals on ASKJ are all negative and its Point & Figure chart has broken through rising support and currently points to a $12.00 (long-term) price target. With the uber-competitive MSFT moving into the search space it could be a tough road ahead for ASKJ and investors may choose to sell first and ask questions later. We're going to target an initial move to $20.00. Annotated Chart: Picked on November 10 at $24.10 Gain since picked: - 0.00 Earnings Date 10/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 4.7 million ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 17.03 change: +0.40 stop: 16.00 Company Description: Chesapeake Energy Corporation is the fifth largest independent producer of natural gas in the U.S. Headquartered in Oklahoma City, the company's operations are focused on exploratory and developmental drilling and producing property acquisitions in the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, South Texas, Texas Gulf Coast and Ark-La-Tex regions of the United States. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Oil stocks aren't the only ones on the upswing. Natural gas stocks have been big winners this year as well. CHK has shown very strong relative strength the past several days in spite of a sharp sell-off in natural gas prices. The company recently announced earnings on November 1st and beat estimates by 8 cents. The company also raised production guidance for both 2005 and 2006. We noticed in their press release that their drilling operations have a seven-year backlog of up to 5,000 locations. In essence this is a momentum play but the energy/natural gas story behind it makes it even more attractive given the rising demand for natural gas. We are going to use a TRIGGER at $17.21. The stock is already at six-year highs but we want to see CHK trade above last Friday's peak. We'll start the play with a stop loss at $16.00 but more conservative traders may want to consider one at $16.49. Our initial target is $19-20 range. The bullish P&F chart points to $24.25. Annotated Chart: Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 11/01/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million --- OMI Corp - OMM - close: 18.45 change: +0.65 stop: 16.99 Company Description: OMI is a major international owner and operator of crude oil tankers and product carriers. Its fleet currently comprises 41 vessels, including 15 Suezmaxes and 24 product carriers, aggregating approximately 3.3 million deadweight tons ("dwt"). (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Shipping stocks and crude oil tankers have been a pillar of strength in this market for the last several months. Now after two or three weeks of digesting the rebound from its mid-October low shares of OMM look ready to begin the climb again. Today's breakout from the tight, coiling action over the last few days and the move up and through the $18.00 level is encouraging. This is another momentum play but so far the trend has been the bulls' friend. More conservative traders may want to wait for OMM to trade over today's high at $18.53 but we're willing to open longs now. We'll start the play with a stop loss at $16.99. Our initial target is a move into the $20-21 region. Annotated Chart: Picked on November 10 at $18.45 Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 10/18/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million --- Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 36.46 change: +1.63 stop: 34.00 Company Description: Transocean Inc. is the world's largest offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 94 mobile offshore drilling units, excluding the 70-rig fleet of TODCO, a publicly traded drilling company in which Transocean Inc. has a majority voting interest. The company's mobile offshore drilling fleet, consisting of a large number of high-specification deepwater and harsh environment drilling units, is considered one of the most modern and versatile in the world due to its emphasis on technically demanding segments of the offshore drilling business. The company's fleet consists of 32 High-Specification Floaters (semisubmersibles and drillships), 25 Other Floaters, 26 Jackup Rigs and other assets utilized in the support of offshore drilling activities worldwide. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Here is yet another energy-related stock. If you read the description RIG is the largest offshore drilling company in the world. With crude oil prices well above their "normal" $22-28 range the exploration and drilling business should be strong for a long time to come. The company recently reported earnings on October 26th and beat estimates by 3 cents. The stock was quickly upgraded to an "out perform" the next day. Currently RIG has been consolidating between $34.00 and $37.00 for the last six weeks. We believe that RIG will finish this consolidation soon and begin a new leg higher. The MACD is nearing a new buy signal and its P&F chart points to a $56 price target. Our plan is to use a TRIGGER above the recent high. Our entry point will be $37.51. Until RIG trades at or above this level we'll sit out. Once triggered we'll target the $42.50-45.00 range. There is some resistance near $40.00 but we expect RIG to push through it. Our time frame is the end of this year. Annotated Chart: Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 10/26/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million New Bearish Plays ----------------- Choice Hotel - CHH - close: 47.69 change: -1.40 stop: 52.00 Company Description: Choice Hotels International is one of the world's largest lodging franchisors, marketing more than 5,000 hotels open or under development in 44 countries under the Comfort Inn, Comfort Suites, Quality, Clarion, Sleep Inn, MainStay Suites, Econo Lodge, and Rodeway Inn brand names. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Profit taking. Pure and simple. After months of steady gains investors were quick to hit the sell button given the earnings news. CHH has been a consistent winner ever since the current (now broken) up trend began back in May of 2003. Then just as CHH near the $60.00 mark, which happened to be the median analysts price target, the company reported Q3 earnings. CHH turned in 74 cents vs. estimates of 77 cents. Management then guided under Wall Street's estimates for full-year 2004 earnings. It was no surprise when JP Morgan downgraded the stock to an "under weight" under slowing growth concerns. The oversold bounce from the initial sell-off has failed and the stock is now back under its simple and exponential 200-dma's. Volume has been heavy on the selling suggesting more weakness to come. We are going to use a TRIGGER to start the play. Our entry point will be $47.49. The stock has been somewhat volatile so we are going to use a wide stop loss at $52.01. More conservative traders may want to consider something over the simple 10-dma. We believe that CHH can trade down toward the $41-40 range. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $35.00 target. Annotated Chart: Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 10/26/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 151 thousand ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TOT Total Sa (ADS) 107.30 +1.08 BA Boening 53.40 +0.89 CHA China Telecom 35.29 +0.76 ECA Encana Corp 52.12 +0.87 ALL Allstate Corp 49.58 +1.33 SLE Sara Lee 23.78 +0.51 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- LGF Lions Gate Entertainment 11.40 +1.21 GRA W.R.Grace & Co 14.48 +2.07 HVT Haverty Furniture 19.59 +1.70 CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group 17.83 +1.06 RSCR Res-Care Inc 13.52 +1.07 ROXI Roxio Inc 8.40 +1.18 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- ATH Anthem Inc 92.89 +1.66 CSC Computer Sciences 53.64 +3.51 KMRT Kmart Holdings 99.09 +2.68 CME Chicago Mercantile Exchg 198.56 +7.45 RMK Aramark Worldwide 25.45 +1.80 STR Questar Corp 50.69 +1.95 UTIW UTI Worldwide Inc 70.70 +3.46 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- HIT Hitachi Ltd 60.83 -2.23 SPI Scottish Power 29.98 -2.18 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products 42.04 -2.20 KYO Kyocera Corp 70.15 -1.55 CHH Choice Hotels Intl 47.69 -1.40 ASKJ Ask Jeeves 24.10 -1.55 BTH Blyth Inc 29.95 -1.85 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- MBT Mobile Telesys 148.10 -5.99 LUK Leucadia Ntl Corp 58.87 -1.27 OSTK Overstock.com 57.42 -4.36 OLG Offshore Logistics 34.60 -1.06 AVCT Avocent 35.66 -0.55 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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