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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 11/14/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-14-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Seller Boycott        
Market Sentiment: Do I Buy Now?     
Watch List: More Energy and Tech          

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 11-12        WE 11-05        WE 10-29        WE 10-22 
DOW    10539.01 +151.47 10387.5 +360.07 10027.5 +269.66 -175.57 
Nasdaq  2085.34 + 46.40 2038.94 + 63.95 1974.99 + 59.85 +  3.64 
S&P-100  566.22 +  8.32  557.90 + 17.25  540.65 + 15.49 -  6.64 
S&P-500 1184.17 + 18.00 1166.17 + 35.97 1130.20 + 34.46 - 12.46 
W5000  11609.67 +200.13 11409.6 +340.64 11068.9 +320.91 - 90.63 
SOX      423.81 +  5.98  417.83 +  5.58  412.25 + 17.09 + 13.79 
RUT      621.98 + 17.69  604.29 + 20.50  583.79 + 16.02 -  0.65 
TRAN    3628.20 + 55.70 3572.50 + 75.08 3497.42 +125.48 + 19.26 
VXO       14.05           14.36           16.57           16.09 
VXN       18.82           19.47           21.90           21.36 
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Seller Boycott
by Jim Brown

Chalk up another big day for the bulls and new highs all
around on the major indexes. Even the Dow almost made it
across the major resistance zone at 10450-10550 without
stopping. The SOX came back to life and there was not a
bear to be found. It was not a rousing rally day but more
of a slow creep upward with sellers nowhere to be found.

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 

After a government holiday the economic reports came back
to haunt us with October retail sales posting a dismal +0.2%
gain compared to a +1.6% gain in September. The biggest drag
came from Autos at -2.2% for the month and surprisingly the
building materials dealers at -1.1%. Apparently hurricane
sales slowed slightly in October after a bounce in Sept.
Ex-Autos the headline number would have been +0.9% but if
you take out the spike in gasoline prices that number drops
back to +0.5%. Any way you slice it sales were terrible and
it appears consumers were constrained by the impending
election and high gas prices. Wal-Mart claims their average
ticket is $50 and the gas prices have taken $10 off that
average. Apparel was the strongest sector at +3.0% as the
first winter storms hit and drove consumers to the stores
for coats and winter clothes. 

The Consumer Sentiment came in much stronger than expected
and could be telling us that holiday shopping is going to
be strong. Sentiment rose to 95.5 for the first November
reading and up from 91.7 in October. We know October was
depressed by the election mudslinging and high oil and
November has seen both of those problems go away. Both
the expectations and current conditions components rose
for the first half of the month. This was the first gain
since July and the biggest gain since June. The strong
jobs report also helped boost sentiment.

Business Inventories rose a paltry +0.1% for September
and well below the +0.7% jump in August. Inventories are
near historical lows in relation to sales and they are
not likely to fall any further. Inventories were up +7.3%
on a year over year basis. However, these very low levels
of inventory will not contribute to the GDP effort. This
is a sustenance level not a rebound level.   

None of this negative news had any impact on stocks. 
Traders took one look at the Consumer Sentiment and weak
oil prices and said we need more stocks. There was nobody
around to sell them and the prices started higher. Prices
appeared to languish over the lunch hour as they waited
for the FOMC minutes from the September meeting but once
the news hit the wires it was off to the races again. 

The minutes expressed some concern about the pace of the
expansion although they said it appeared resilient and
self sustaining. The Fed saw solid growth ahead but at
a pace that was less brisk than previously expected. They
saw numerous risks to the downside and questioned the need
to continue raising rates but still felt a "gradual" pace
of increases would be all that was needed to maintain 
steady growth without inflation. The problems they were
concerned about were primarily job creation and fading
demand. Since this meeting we have seen a sharp jump in
job growth and continued slow growth in demand but growth
that is still rising. It is anticipated that the cautious
Fed as evidenced by the minutes was probably not going to
make any big moves and the "measured pace" phrase was 
going to continue into 2005. Estimates are for a rate
hike in Dec and Feb and continued low inflation. 

There is no shortage of consumer demand in the stock 
market. Schwab noted that there was a +16% rise in 
trade volume in October and November was even stronger.
Ameritrade said November volume was up +20% so far. AMG
Data said for the week ended Wednesday there was $4.3B 
in cash inflows to mutual funds. That was the biggest 
single week since April and tax month. Investors appear
to be going for the gold into year end and worrying about
2005 when we get there. Earnings for Q3 are nearly done
at +15.1% and guidance is light for Q4 and beyond. This
entire rally is built on the hope that the 2005 outlook
will change before we get there. 

It is also built on relief. Relief that the election
process is behind us and relief that the year long down
trend appears to have been broken. Relief that oil prices
have fallen -15% off their highs is also a factor. Would
you have believed back in July that traders would be 
relieved that oil was ONLY $47.50 a barrel today? Oil
was trading at $35.50 on June-30th.    

Crude Oil Chart

 
Chart of US Dollar Index

 
Gold Chart

 

While the equity markets were setting new highs on 
nearly all the indexes the dollar was still getting 
knocked for a loss. This could grow to be a real problem
soon and one that could cause the markets more stress 
than oil ever could. We are nowhere near a critical 
level but we need to keep it on the radar screen. The 
best way to prove the importance of the falling dollar
is to simply look at gold prices. Gold closed at a 
sixteen year high on Friday at $438.30 and the dollar
closed at an multiyear low. Deficits and trade gaps do
matter.

The markets popped in their ear plugs and placed their
tunnel vision glasses firmly in place. Once the sentiment
was announced it was buy, buy, buy but it was not a 
feeding frenzy. Just a slow creep higher until the SPX 
stopped its advance at 1177 and waited for the FOMC 
minutes. Once the minutes were released and deemed 
bullish that SPX level broke and multiple buy programs
tacked on another six points to close at 1183.44 and 
less than a point from the high of the day. Once that 
2002 high at 1177 was broken the race was on and 
announcers could not say enough positive words about 
the rally. 

The Dow struggled to break over 10500 but once broken 
it nearly made it all the way across the 10450-10550
danger zone without stopping. This is a monster move
and it has shown no signs of weakening. If the Dow can
clear the 10550 level then the highs for the year at
10750 are the next target. Should we see a pullback
initial support would be 10450. 

The Nasdaq has literally caught fire over the last 
two days. The Dell bounce helped and even the SOX 
participated. The Nasdaq Comp closed near the high of
the day at 2083 and 2100 is only a stones throw away.
This is a huge breakout of +49 points from the Wednesday
close. After trading perfectly sideways for four days the
sellers failed to appear Thursday morning and the last
two days were very strong. Investors finally decided 
chip stocks were undervalued and the SOX added +17 points
over the last two days with a close well over the 420
resistance level. If the downtrend resistance at 425 
can be broken like we have seen on the other indexes
then the Nasdaq could really explode. 

The Russell rambled to another all time high and closed
at 622 and right on the last shred of resistance dating
back to Jan-2004. I see no reason why this breakout
should not continue other than the sheer magnitude of
the rally. The small caps should continue leading and
we should watch the Russell as the leading indicator
of any potential pullback. 

Russell Chart

 
SOX Chart

 

With the exception of the SOX all the indexes are now
setting either new multi month, multi year or historic
all time highs. Even the transports closed at a new
five year high and the Dow utilities at a new three
year high. Bullishness is not just breaking out all 
over but it is rampant and growing. It is reaching 
extreme levels but traders are scoffing at the idea of
taking profits. Nobody wants to sell. Up volume on the
S&P was nearly 4:1 over down volume and we are at severe
nosebleed levels. Volume across all markets roared back
from Thursday's holiday level and hit 4.3B shares. 
Advancers were better than 2:1 over decliners for 
the second day in a row. 

Stronger volume, strong A/D and more than 10% of all 
stocks were trading at new 52-week highs. Sounds like 
the Goldilocks market for the bulls and the perfect 
storm for the bears. Those bears trying to short this
rally have been road kill for two weeks now. Those 
trying to short are dwindling as the bull gains more 
and more converts. 

There are two challenges now. The first for the bulls
is the amount of extension we have seen. The Dow has
risen +831 points, +8.6% in 14 trading days with no
material profit taking. We have had a couple of minor
losses but most profit taking came on days where there
was a large move higher and then an afternoon sell off.
There has not been any materially negative day. The
S&P has only lost ground on four of the last 15 days
and the total points lost was only -4.20 or an avg of
-1.05 per day. This may not qualify as any kind of 
string but in the middle of that period it was positive
for nine consecutive days. In short there has been NO
profit taking and the risk is beginning to grow that 
some will appear soon. Very soon. 

Conversely there is also risk to the upside, very strong
risk. There is a general feeling starting to make the
rounds that the current rally is the beginning of the
second leg on a cyclical bull market that started back
in March of 2003. If you remember we had a monster
rally off the March lows that added +47% to the SPX
and topped in March 2004. Since March we have trended
down as the election mudslinging increased along with
higher oil and a perceived terror risk for the election.
All very normal reasons to consolidate. Now those worries
are behind us the general consensus is a 1250 S&P target
by year-end. However, that is just the first stop if you
believe a growing analyst population that is now targeting
1350-1500 for year end 2005. 

Dow Chart 1993-1995

 
Dow Chart 1995-1997

 
Dow Chart 2002-2004

 

I do not want to get into the dozens of reasons why 
those 2005 targets may be right or wrong because it
does not matter for the next two weeks. What matters
is the risk to the funds that those predictions could
come true. If they are not fully invested for the rest
of the year then they could miss out on another +10%
S&P move to 1300. Why 1300? Because the obvious target
of 1250 could be hit next week and there is a lot of
year left. If you are a fund manager you can't afford
to be wrong and waiting on the sidelines for the next
pullback. It may never come or when it comes it may
be so weak that you passed up on a +5% gain to get a
-1% pullback. 

The comments beginning to make the rounds since the
last Jobs report suggest we could see a strong upward
revision in 2005 guidance with the January earnings.
Companies like Dell are not seeing any abnormal buying
but they are seeing stronger demand than most people
expected. The weak guidance for Q4 may result in a lot
of better than expected earnings in January if the next
two months continue to improve as dramatically as the
last 30 days. Funds can't afford to be wrong. Being
cautious is not an option at this point. 

Analysts still claim there is a lot of money on the
sidelines. The range bound down trending markets over
the last ten months have punished attempts to get long
several times and managers were either skeptical or
caught under invested on the post election bounce. I
have reported several times over the last couple months
about the high cash positions in many funds. Some as
much as 25% to 35%. We have to assume that most of 
these very large numbers have been shrunk to smaller
levels of maybe 5-10% or less. With $7 trillion on
deposit in mutual funds and $1.5 trillion in hedge
funds even a minimal 3-5% can be a very large number.
If the average mutual fund cash position was only 5%
that would be $350 billion uninvested. At 3% that number
drops to $210 billion and neither number takes the hedge
funds into account. Remember I said average and many 
funds keep less than 1% in cash but many others could
have a substantial cushion. 

If these under invested funds do not participate in any
continued rally then customers will move the money to
a different fund next year. It is "buy or die" for any
fund not currently fully invested. Add in all the retail
money still hesitant to believe in the rally and you
have a lot of reasons for the rally to continue. 

What I am describing is not fundamental. It has nothing
to do with earnings or the economy. It is survival of 
the fittest for funds and the battle has already begun.
Logic would suggest there SHOULD be a pullback to 
consolidate our gains from the last three weeks. Logic
rarely works in new bull and bear markets. Panic is the
only emotion likely to be seen over the next two weeks.

If you are like me you are looking at the set of vertical
green candles above and thinking the sky is about to fall.
Nothing that vertical can last. In fact the current ramp
has not yet reached the proportions of some recent rebounds.

Jul-2002 775 to 909 +17%, +134 points, five days
Oct-2002 768 to 900 +17%, +132 points, eight days
Mar-2003 788 to 896 +14%, +108 points, eight days
Oct-2004 1090 - 1184 +8%, + 94 points, fourteen days

As you can see our current spike, although appearing
vertical to those if us who have been range bound for
ten months, has been weaker than prior rebounds. This
suggests there is room to run and any pullback could 
be limited at best. A run to 1250 from here would only
be +66 points and another +5% gain.  

For a true picture of the strength of the market compare
the breakout in the Wilshire 5000 with the Dow. The
Wilshire has clearly broken out and at three-year highs
with plenty of room to run. 5000 stocks vs only 30.

Wilshire 5000 Chart

 

I hope I have not alienated anyone with this analysis
and reporting of the current market rumblings. As in
politics, religion and football there can be many opinions
and all different. I only try to sift through the many
available, weigh the options and present the likely 
outcome. 

Imagine the market is like a football game. The bulls
have the ball and have been marching down the field in
pretty impressive fashion with the goal line at SPX 1250.
The bears have been getting trampled on nearly every play.
They know they are being pushed back nearer to their goal 
on each play and the situation is serious. As the time 
begins to expire on the November clock each play becomes
more critical. They may eventually sack the bulls for a
loss but more than likely the next play out of the huddle
will be a long bomb for a bullish gain. The bears have no
replacements and the walking wounded are getting weaker. 
The bulls on the other hand have legions of players just
coming off the bench with pocketfuls of cash for padding.
While the game may not be over the outcome is pretty
obvious. We don't know how many plays are left to be
run before the bulls score or how many sacks the bears
may achieve. That is what keeps it interesting. 

Next week the economic calendar increases in intensity
but baring an absolute disaster it will be ignored. Buy
any dip and don't count on them being deep. Watch for an
interception and be prepared for high volatility. Keep
your eye on the Russell for directional indications. It
should be a fun week as option positions are squared
ahead of expiration. Odds are very good there are a lot
of traders with naked option positions that got away from
them and they will have to buy to cover beginning on Monday.
This should increase the upward pressure on the market.
Max-pain for the SPX is 1125 and hopefully out of reach.
Any move higher on Monday could start another serious 
short squeeze. 

I realize I have painted a strongly bullish picture and
one that may run contrary to logic. The market exists to
confound the maximum number of traders at any given time
and after crawling out on the limb today I am just begging
for it to be cut off behind me. Trade what you see and you
can't go wrong. 
  
Sell Too Soon!

Jim Brown


Was this commentary helpful to you? 
Your comments are always appreciated. 
Click here to email Jim 

================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Do I Buy Now?
- J. Brown

Gosh, if you read the market wrap this weekend then you don't 
need to read today's column on market sentiment.  Jim has already 
done an excellent job of discussing why stocks could just as 
easily trade higher versus trading lower in spite of the market's 
overbought, extended status.  Most of us who have been watching 
the markets look at the current rally and think, "Wow!  The 
markets are so extended it has to come down soon."  Yet therein 
lies the problem.  Stocks don't have to do anything.  

If there is one thing we've learned over the past few years is 
that stocks can always go higher when we think they can't and 
they can always go lower when we think they can't.  Do I think 
stocks will go higher?  If you're talking about between now and 
year end then the answer is yes.  But I do believe in the laws of 
gravity.  Try as they might stocks can't defy gravity forever.  
Every day stocks put off consolidating some of these gains the 
steeper and more painful the pull back can be.  

Jim discussed the issue of investors both big and small pushing 
stocks higher because they're afraid they've missed the rally.  
There is nothing stronger than the emotion of greed except fear.  
Right now there are a lot of investors worried the train has left 
the station without them.  This crowd of traders is going to 
pounce on the first dip they see.  That's going to make the dips 
a lot more shallow than you and I might expect.  

The challenge for you and I is two-fold.  Do I buy now and/or do 
I sell?  A lot of OptionInvestor.com's bullish candidates have 
done very well.  So when do you sell?  Do you sell when your 
option is up 25%?  How about 50%?  Do you sell at a 100% gain?  
Over 100%?  That's the question facing many of our readers.  
Personally, I'd rather put the money in my account than see the 
option values evaporate on a sharp pull back.  Yes, it has 
happened before when I sell something because I think it can't go 
any higher and it keeps going.  That's okay!  I suggest readers 
re-evaluate their stop losses to make sure they're comfortable 
with how much risk they're taking.  

So do I buy now?  That's a tough question.  I would much rather 
wait and be one of those in the growing horde waiting for the dip 
than jump in now at what could be a top.  The market will 
eventually pull back.  I'm more encouraged by the positive 
development in the market's bullish percent data.  Plus, the 
volume numbers and advance/decline numbers and new highs/new lows 
data is all very bullish.  The combination of the post-election 
rally and the traditional fourth-quarter November-December 
bullishness should keep stocks climbing higher throughout the end 
of the year.   

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10539

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10310
 50-dma: 10139 
200-dma: 10244 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1170
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1184

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1158
 50-dma: 1126
200-dma: 1120



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1558

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1520
 50-dma: 1448
200-dma: 1438


-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.33 +0.29
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.05 +0.73
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 18.82 -0.10 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.76      1,147,119       874,194
Equity Only    0.64        869,039       553,135
OEX            0.99         77,291        76,757
QQQ            1.51         38,472        58,208


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.5    + 0.8   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    69.0    + 3     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   63.3    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       71.2    + 0.4   Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       71.0    + 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.00
10-dma: 0.89
21-dma: 0.92
55-dma: 1.03


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2071      1829
Decliners     744      1155

New Highs     400       190
New Lows       12        14

Up Volume   1467M     1329M
Down Vol.    473M      635M

Total Vol.  1964M     1988M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/02/04

*ALERT - CFTC.GOV has not released any new data since 11/02/04.
         We will update this section when data becomes available.

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Considering the fact that the latest data was taken as of
election day, Nov. 2nd, it's no surprise to see both 
commercials and small traders hedging their bets.  The 
next round of data should be more informative. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/12/04      423,472   436,780   (13,308)   (1.5%)
10/19/04      432,945   441,041   ( 8,096)   (0.9%)
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.4%)
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/12/04      139,175   113,903    25,272     9.9%
10/19/04      147,148   124,827    22,321     8.2%
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

E-mini traders are not as humble as the larger S&P futures
traders.  Commercials remain bearish and small traders 
have pushed their bullish bias to new multi-week levels. 
Just remember, this data is post-election. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/12/04      258,457   517,805   (259,348)  (33.4%)
10/19/04      264,860   531,541   (266,681)  (33.4%)
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/12/04      309,720     62,502   247,218    66.4%
10/19/04      353,903     66,027   287,876    68.5%
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Just as small traders pushed their bullish S&P bias to multi-
week extremes; they've done the opposite on the NDX with a 
new multi-week bearish extreme and a new low for the year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/12/04       52,572     32,775    19,797   23.2%
10/19/04       52,630     31,940    20,690   24.4%
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/12/04        8,756    24,400   (15,644)  (47.2%)
10/19/04       10,462    25,243   (14,781)  (41.3%)
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (27,735) - 11/02/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Neither commercials nor small traders seem willing to place
any big bets but both are somewhat bullish on the Industrials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/12/04       24,150    22,849    1,301       2.7%
10/19/04       25,385    24,213    1,172       2.3%
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/12/04        8,814     9,167   (  353)   ( 1.9%)
10/19/04        8,327     6,015    2,312     16.1% 
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Alliance Resource - ARLP - close: 62.41 change: +3.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Energy stocks are popular targets for the bulls.  
This one, a coal miner, has been a consistent winner for months.  
Technical traders will note how ARLP likes to bounce from support 
at its simple 50-dma.  Shares rebounded from this moving average 
again late this past week.  It's also noteworthy that Friday's 
rally was fueled by above average volume.  This could be a 
bullish entry point. 




---

Lm Ericsson - ERICY - close: 33.35 change: +1.87

WHAT TO WATCH: ERICY soared on Friday with a 5.9 percent gain on 
strong volume.  This sent shares over resistance at $33.00 to hit 
new multi-year highs.  Combine this with the fact that shares 
recently broke through their 200-week moving average and it might 
be worth chasing ERICY.  The P&F chart points to a $49 target.  
Whether you buy the breakout or look for a bounce we would 
probably target a move toward $40.00 over the next couple of 
months.




---

SanDisk Corp - SNDK - close: 21.82 change: +0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding SNDK to the play 
list this weekend as a bullish candidate.  The stock has spent 
the last four weeks consolidating the massive gap down in 
October. A move up through the $22.00 level would put SNDK into 
the gap and allow for a potential "fill the gap" type of play.  
While we wouldn't expect SNDK to retrace its way back to $28 it 
could rally toward the $25-26 region.  We're further attracted to 
it with the long-term double-bottom near the $20 level.




---

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 34.07 change: +0.78

WHAT TO WATCH: QLGC has been consolidating sideways the past two 
weeks but Friday's 2.3 percent rally pushed the stock over the 
current trading range.  QLGC has resistance near $35.00 at the 
bottom of its gap down last March.  If QLGC can breakout over $35 
we could play it for a "fill the gap" move toward $40.00.  The 
P&F chart is already bullish with a $53 long-term target.  Watch 
for the breakout.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PVN $16.85 +0.33 - Strength in the financials helped push PVN to 
new multi-year highs and above its 200-week moving average.  Watch for a dip.

TCB $32.12 +0.86 - TCB is another bank stock worth watching for a 
breakout over $32.50-33.00.

STX $14.19 +0.53 - STX is nearing resistance at $14.50.  Watch 
for the breakout.

CY $11.23 +0.28 - This semiconductor stock has broken through its 
simple 100-dma.   The trend is bullish.

MRVL $30.80 +2.33 - MRVL is breaking out over resistance at 
$30.00 and its trading range to hit multi-year highs.
 

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-14-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  JNPR
  Bearish Play Updates:  ASKJ
  Closed Bullish Plays:  OVTI
  
Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     ACH, PCU, ZEUS
  Bullish Play Updates:  CHK, OMM, RIG
  Bearish Play Updates:  CHH, TSCO, WGR
  
Stock Splits
  Announcements:         BMI


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 28.50 chg: +0.80 stop: 25.49*new*

The rally begins again in JNPR.  The stock's recent consolidation 
ended on Thursday when shares rebounded from the $27.00 level.  
Now with Friday's 2.88 percent gain the stock was able to 
breakout over resistance at $28.00 dating back to April.  With 
this obstacle out of the way there doesn't appear to be anything 
to slow shares down between here and the $30-31 region.  Our only 
concern would be a pull back in the major indices.  We're going 
to raise our stop loss to $25.49.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on October 31 at $26.61 
Gain since picked:      + 1.89
Earnings Date         10/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      9.1 million 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 25.65 change: +0.41 stop: 26.51

Hmm... we're behind the eight-ball on ASKJ.  The stock rebounded 
sharply on Thursday afternoon around the time the NASDAQ 
Composite broke through resistance at 2050.  We suspect it was 
just some scared shorts covering.  There was a little bit of 
follow through on Friday but for the most part ASKJ spent the day 
trading sideways.  Investors are still concerned that ASKJ is 
losing the battle between search engines with Google, Yahoo and 
now Microsoft's new search.  MSFT launched a new beta version of 
their new search engine that is said to handle natural language 
queries.  This is something that until now has set ASKJ apart 
from the pack.  We're going to leave our stop loss at $26.51 for 
now but more aggressive traders who believe ASKJ is going to turn 
lower and they're willing to endure some volatility may want to 
put their stop above $27.50.  We would not suggest new bearish 
positions in ASKJ until shares trade back under $25.00 again. Our 
initial target at $20.00 has not changed.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $24.10 
Gain since picked:       + 1.55
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.7 million 




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

OmniVision Tech - OVTI - close: 17.65 chg: +0.80 stop: 14.40      

OVTI was already showing plenty of relative strength before this 
past week occurred but Thursday and Friday saw the stock really 
move higher.  Friday's 2.3 percent rally in the SOX semiconductor 
index helped propel OVTI up and through resistance at $17.00 and 
its exponential 200-dma.  By the end of the day OVTI had added 
another 4.7 percent.  We're closing the play per our strategy 
with a 17 percent rise in OVTI.  For those who choose to hold on 
to OVTI watch out for additional resistance at the simple 200-dma 
overhead.

Picked on October 20 at $15.03
Gain since picked:      + 2.62
Earnings Date         11/17/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      5.0 million 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Aluminum Corp China - ACH - close: 63.45 chg: +2.39 stop: 59.75

Company Description:
We are the only producer of alumina and the largest producer of 
primary aluminum in China, the fastest growing major aluminum 
market in the world. Alumina and primary aluminum are our 
principal products. Alumina is refined from bauxite through a 
chemical process and is the key raw material for producing 
primary aluminum, which in turn is a widely used metal and the 
key raw material for aluminum fabrication.
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Aluminum Corp China Limited, a.k.a. Chalco, trades on the NYSE as 
an ADR or in this case an ADS.  The stock saw healthy gains in 
late summer and has spent the last few weeks consolidating those 
gains.  We like the technical breakout over price resistance at 
$62.00 and its simple 200-dma.  Volume was above average on the 
breakout.  The mining group even outside of gold miners appears 
to be doing better and set for another move higher.  We want to 
open longs now over $62.00 and target a move to the $69-70 range. 
FYI: we can't find an earnings date but it wouldn't surprise us 
if ACH's next quarterly report was in late November.  Consider 
this as part of the risk.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $63.45 
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand



---

Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 47.95 chg: +1.74 stop: 44.49

Company Description:
Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SPCC) is one of the largest 
companies in Peru and currently the eighth largest copper 
producer in the world. The shareholders of SPCC (prior to the 
execution of this transaction) are, directly or through 
subsidiaries, as follows: Grupo México (54.2%), Cerro Trading 
Company (14.2%), Phelps Dodge (14.0%) and other common 
shareholders 17.6%. SPCC is listed in the NYSE and the Lima Stock 
Exchange. SPCC is domiciled in Delaware.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Now that the immediate threat of a worker strike appears to have 
abated shares of PCU are on the up swing.  The last four weeks of 
consolidation looks like a bottom for the stock to rally from.  
Copper prices continue to rise as does global demand for the 
metal.  This has put a bid under shares of PCU since its May low 
and the Point & Figure chart has just recently reversed into a 
new buy signal with a $57 price target.  We are willing to 
consider longs at current levels.  More patient traders can look 
for a possible dip toward $46.  Our target is the early October 
highs in the $55-56 range.  Keep in mind there is always risk of 
another strike or even the news of a potential strike could spark 
more selling.  We would keep positions small. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $47.90 
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       353 thousand



---

Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 20.65 chg: +0.72 stop: 17.99

Company Description:
Founded in 1954, Olympic Steel is a leading U.S. steel service 
center focused on the direct sale and distribution of large 
volumes of processed carbon, coated and stainless flat-rolled 
sheet, coil and plate steel products. Headquartered in Cleveland, 
Ohio, the Company operates 12 facilities and participates in two 
joint ventures.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Expanding economies at home and abroad helped make steel stocks 
big winners in the early summer.  Now ZEUS has spent the last 
couple of months consolidating those gains.  With our own economy 
still growing and demand for steel still strong shares of ZEUS 
looks ready for another leg higher.  We like how above average 
volume powered the recent rally through resistance at $19.00, the 
50-dma, the 100-dma and the $20.00 mark.  ZEUS has also broken 
its two-month trend of lower highs.  Plus, the bullish P&F chart 
is in a new buy signal with a $26 target.  We want to target a 
move to resistance at $25.00 by the end of this year. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $20.65 
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:           million 



============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 17.19 change: +0.39 stop: 16.00

So far so good.  CHK has continued to rally and shares have 
pushed back above the $17.00 level.  Furthermore CHK traded to 
$17.23 on Friday afternoon hitting our TRIGGER at $17.21 to open 
the play.  We like the steady momentum and CHK looks a lot less 
overbought than a lot of stocks in this market.  This looks like 
a bullish entry point to us.  However, if the market dips watch 
for a pull back toward the $16.50-16.75 range and consider the 
bounce.  No change in our stop at $16.00 or our initial target at 
$19-20.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 12 at $17.21
Gain since picked:       - 0.02
Earnings Date          11/01/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 



---

OMI Corp - OMM - close: 19.35 change: +0.13 stop: 16.99

OMM recent breakout experienced some follow through on Thursday.  
The stock rallied past the $19.00 level on volume almost three 
times the average.  We're very encouraged by the move but shares 
look a little short-term overbought.  Watch for a dip back toward 
the $19.00-18.50 region and buy a bounce.  No change in our stop 
at $16.99 and no change in our initial target at $20-21.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $18.45 
Gain since picked:       + 0.90
Earnings Date          10/18/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       1.1 million 



---

Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 37.07 change: +1.07 stop: 34.00

RIG continues to rally from the bottom of its trading range 
toward the upper band.  Friday's 2.9 percent rally places the 
stock just under resistance and poised to breakout higher.  The 
MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal suggesting the same.  
We are waiting for RIG to push through resistance and hit our 
TRIGGER at $37.51 to open the play.  Our year-end target is the 
$42.50-45.00 region.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Choice Hotel - CHH - close: 50.00 change: +1.11 stop: 52.00

It's been very tough to be a bear when the whole market is in 
breakout mode.  Even weak stocks like CHH who have clearly broken 
their up trend can rally higher when the tide comes in.  Friday's 
2.2 percent gain might be a concern only because of the very 
strong volume behind it.  The move was fueled by an upgrade from 
J.P.Morgan to "neutral" and news from CHH that the company had 
already repurchased 450,000 shares of its own stock in the fourth 
quarter.  Fortunately, we remain untriggered.  Until CHH trades 
at $47.49 we will sit on the sidelines and watch.  We suspect 
that CHH will turn lower again and it doesn't hurt to wait.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       151 thousand



---

Tractor Supply Co - TSCO - close: 36.37 change: +0.06 stop: 37.05

Uh-oh!  Here's another example of a relatively weak stock being 
caught up in the market's euphoria this past week.  The momentum 
in TSCO's rebound from the October lows was clearly waning and 
technicals supported the notion that TSCO was ready to turn lower 
again.  Yet in the past few days the RLX retail index has soared 
to new all-time highs.  The S&P 500 is breaking out to new three-
year highs.  So it's not a big surprise to see TSCO bouncing from 
the $35 region.  Shares remain under resistance at $37.00 so 
we'll keep the play open.  We probably wouldn't suggest new 
bearish positions until TSCO traded back under $35.50 again.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 07 at $35.68 
Gain since picked:       + 0.69
Earnings Date          10/11/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       422 thousand



---

Western Gas - WGR - close: 28.57 change: +0.56 stop: 29.31

Heads up!  This could be a decision time for WGR traders.  The 
oversold bounce has turned into a real rebound with technical 
oscillators turning positive.  While volume has been less than 
convincing the stock has still managed to push back above the 
$28.00 level and its simple and exponential 200-dma's.  That's 
not good news for bears.  We're willing to hold on to it for a 
couple of more days but if shares trade over $29.00 we may exit 
early.  We are not suggesting new plays until WGR grades back 
under $27.50.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 07 at $27.01 
Gain since picked:       + 1.56
Earnings Date          11/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       506 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

BMI declares a 2-for-1 stock split

Friday morning before the opening bell the Badger Meter, Inc. 
(AMEX:BMI) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-
for-1 stock split.

The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend.  This 
dividend is payable on December 10th, 2004 to shareholders on 
record as of November 26th.  

The Board also declared a cash dividend of 14 cents per share 
payable on December 15th, 2004, adjusted for the 2-for-1 split.


About the company:
Badger Meter is a leading marketer and manufacturer of flow 
measurement and control technology, developed both internally and 
with other companies, as well as the leader in providing digital 
connectivity to AMR technologies. Its products are used to measure 
and control the flow of liquids in a variety of applications. 
(source: company press release)


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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-14-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 15th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

=========================================
Market Watch for the week of October 11th
=========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

*This is not a complete list.  We only try and highlight the 
more significant earnings reports.


Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

APPA A.P.Pharma Inc.      Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      n/a
ATN  Action Performance   Mon, Nov 15  After the market     0.21
ATA  Apogee Technology    Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      n/a
ARM  ArvinMeritor, Inc.   Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      0.53
BGO  Bema Gold            Mon, Nov 15  After the market    -0.01
BOBE Bob Evans Farms      Mon, Nov 15  After the market     0.28
CKN  Cash Systems Inc     Mon, Nov 15  ----- n/a -----      0.04
ERJ  Embraer-Empresa      Mon, Nov 15  After the market     0.52
FRO  Frontline Ltd.       Mon, Nov 15  ----- n/a -----      2.12
GLBC Global Crossing      Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell     -4.44
HOLL Hollywood Media      Mon, Nov 15  After the market    -0.07
IDBE ID Biomedical        Mon, Nov 15  After the market    -0.10
JAS  Jo-Ann Stores        Mon, Nov 15  After the market     0.32
LOW  Lowe's Companies     Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      0.65
MUSE Micromuse Inc.       Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      0.01
RENT Rentrak Corp         Mon, Nov 15  After the market     n/a
SMD  The Singing Machine  Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      n/a
TSN  Tyson Foods          Mon, Nov 15  Before the bell      0.17

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ATW  Atwood Oceanics      Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.10
BJ   BJ's Wholesale Club  Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.31
BAMM Books-A-Million      Tue, Nov 16  After the market    -0.07
BGP  Borders Group        Tue, Nov 16  After the market    -0.02
CTMI CTI Molecular Imag.  Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.16
ESE  ESCO Techonlogies    Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.85
GYMB Gymboree             Tue, Nov 16  After the market     0.17
HPQ  Hewlett-Packard      Tue, Nov 16  After the market     0.37
HB   Hillenbrand Ind.     Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.75
HD   Home Depot           Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.56
JCP  J.C.Penney           Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.48
NTAP Network Appliance    Tue, Nov 16  After the market     0.14
JWN  Nordstrom            Tue, Nov 16  After the market     0.47
ROST Ross Stores, Inc.    Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.25
SKS  Saks Inc.            Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.04
SPLS Staples, Inc.        Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.40
SCMR Sycamore Networks    Tue, Nov 16  After the market    -0.03
VOD  Vodafone Group       Tue, Nov 16  During the market     n/a
WMT  Wal-Mart Stores      Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell      0.54
ZLC  Zale Corp.           Tue, Nov 16  Before the bell     -0.21

------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AGIL Agile Software       Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.01
AMAT Applied Materials    Wed, Nov 17  ----- n/a -----      0.26
BLI  Big Lots Inc.        Wed, Nov 17  Before the bell     -0.20
BKST Brookstone           Wed, Nov 17  ----- n/a -----     -0.32
BWS  Brown Shoe Co        Wed, Nov 17  Before the bell      0.95
GME  Gamestop Corp.       Wed, Nov 17  Before the bell      0.24
GDYS Goody's Family       Wed, Nov 17  Before the bell     -0.06
HOTT Hot Topic            Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.27
INTU Intuit               Wed, Nov 17  After the market    -0.27
JBX  Jack in the box      Wed, Nov 17  ----- n/a -----      0.49
LDG  Longs Drug Stores    Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.15
MDT  Medtronic Inc        Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.45
MW   Men's Wearhouse      Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.35
MGAM Multimedia Games     Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.23
PETM PetsMart             Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.24
CRM  Salesforce.com       Wed, Nov 17  After the market     0.01
TLB  Talbots              Wed, Nov 17  ----- n/a -----      0.50
TOO  Too, Inc.            Wed, Nov 17  Before the bell      0.27
V    Vivendi Universal    Wed, Nov 17  ----- n/a -----      n/a


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ARO  Aeropostale, Inc.    Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.54
ADSK Autodesk, Inc.       Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      0.34
BKS  Barnes & Noble       Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.12
BCSI Blue Coat Systems    Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.09
CBRL CBRL Group           Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.59
CLE  Claire's Stores, Inc Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      0.29
DKS  Dick's Sporting Good Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.04
DBRN Dress Barn           Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      0.21
ELBO Electronics Boutique Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.29
FL   Foot Locker Inc.     Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      0.47
GPS  Gap Inc.             Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.28
GCO  Genesco              Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.46
HIBB Hibbett Sporting     Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.24
HUG  Hughes Supply        Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.52
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa      Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.04
LTD  Limited Brands       Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.10
MRVL Marvell Semicond.    Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.21
MCDTA McDATA Corp.        Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.01
MSCC Microsemi            Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      0.12
NOVL Novell, Inc.         Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.05
SHRP Shaper Image Corp.   Thr, Nov 18  After the market    -0.17
SKO  ShopKo Stores        Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.04
SMRT Steinmart Inc.       Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell     -0.05
BBA  The Bombay Co.       Thr, Nov 18  After the market    -0.23
LNUX VA Software          Thr, Nov 18  After the market    -0.02
VIP  Vimpel Comm.         Thr, Nov 18  ----- n/a -----      1.95
DIS  Walt Disney          Thr, Nov 18  After the market     0.18
WSM  Williams-Sonoma      Thr, Nov 18  Before the bell      0.23

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

CPWM Cost Plus            Fri, Nov 19  Before the bell      0.01
SJM  J.M.Smucker Co.      Fri, Nov 19  Before the bell      0.74



----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

DVN     Devon Energy              2:1      Nov 15th    Nov 16th
NFB     North Fork Banc           3:2      Nov 15th    Nov 16th
FBNC    First Bancorp             3:2      Nov 15th    Nov 16th
FINL    The Finish Line Inc       2:1      Nov 17th    Nov 18th
SSD     Simpson Manufacturing     2:1      Nov 18th    Nov 19th
STJ     St. Jude Medical          2:1      Nov 22nd    Nov 23rd
TASR    TASER Intl. Inc           2:1      Nov 29th    Nov 30th
MSL     MidSouth Bancorp          5:4      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
SYMC    Symantec                  2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
RYL     Ryland Group Inc.         2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th

-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------

We have three fed heads making an apperance this week.  Both the
Fed and Wall Street will be watching the PPI and CPI numbers for
a gauge on inflation.  Earnings continue to trickle in.

==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 11/15/04
----------------
NY Empire State Index for November   Last: 17.4   Est: 20.4

-----------------
Tuesday, 11/16/04
-----------------
Producer Price Index (PPI) for October  Last: 0.1%   Est: 0.5%
Core PPI for October                    Last: 0.3%   Est: 0.1%
NAHB Housing market index for November
Federal Reserve Governor Moskow speaks on Economic Outlook

-------------------
Wednesday, 11/17/04
-------------------
Consumer Price Index for October        Last: 0.2%   Est: 0.4%
Core CPI for October                    Last: 0.3%   Est: 0.1%
Industrial Production for October     
Capacity Utilization for October
Housing Starts for October              Last: 1898K  Est: 1980K
Building Permits for October            Last: 1998K  Est: 1980K
Federal Reserve Governor Pianalto speaks in Ohio

------------------
Thursday, 11/18/04
------------------
Philly Fed for November                 Last: 28.5    Est: 23.2
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims           Last: 333K
Leading Indicators for October
SEMI Book-to-Bill report

----------------
Friday, 11/19/04
----------------
Federal Reserve Governor Stern speaks on Economy


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

NTT     Nippon Telephone           22.50     +0.74
GSK     GlaxoSmithKline            45.02     +0.51
CVX     ChevronTexaco              54.57     +1.65
C       Citigroup                  47.07     +0.81
XOM     ExxonMobil                 50.42     +0.76
MWD     Morgan Stanley             53.13     +0.98

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RMBS    Rambus Inc                 19.10     +1.84
COCO    Corinthian Colleges        17.75     +1.29
OPWV    Openwave Systems           14.67     +1.05
PSS     Payless Shoe Sources       12.93     +1.86
ACTL    Actel Corp                 17.16     +1.31
AHS     AMN Healthcare             15.72     +1.68

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
DELL    Dell Inc                   40.44     +3.19
UBS     UBS Ag                     80.09     +1.39
ERICY   Lm Ericsson                33.35     +1.87
AL      Alcan Inc Metal            51.84     +1.02
PKX     Posco                      41.00     +1.44
SPG     Simon Property Group       61.71     +1.88
AU      Anglogold Ashanti          40.78     +1.78

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

A       Agilent Technologies       22.58     -3.10
EXPD    Expeditors Int Washington  51.23     -2.85
ZBRA    Zebra Technologies         52.90     -3.13
CEY     Certegy Inc                34.67     -1.41
TACT    Transact Technologies      22.00     -1.80

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

ABT     Abbott Labs                44.18     -1.12
MET     Metlife Inc                38.40     -1.40
PRU     Prudential Financial       48.00     -1.78

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