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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 11/21/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-21-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Lame Duck Drop         
Market Sentiment: Finally!    
Watch List: Drugs to Oil and more           

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 11-19        WE 11-12        WE 11-05        WE 10-29 
DOW    10456.91 - 82.10 10539.0 +151.47 10387.5 +360.07 +269.66 
Nasdaq  2070.63 - 14.71 2085.34 + 46.40 2038.94 + 63.95 + 59.85 
S&P-100  559.69 -  6.53  566.22 +  8.32  557.90 + 17.25 + 15.49 
S&P-500 1170.34 - 13.83 1184.17 + 18.00 1166.17 + 35.97 + 34.46 
W5000  11480.63 -129.04 11609.7 +200.13 11409.6 +340.64 +320.91 
SOX      431.88 +  8.07  423.81 +  5.98  417.83 +  5.58 + 17.09 
RUT      613.44 -  8.54  621.98 + 17.69  604.29 + 20.50 + 16.02 
TRAN    3567.65 - 60.55 3628.20 + 55.70 3572.50 + 75.08 +125.48 
VXO       14.60           14.05           14.36           16.57 
VXN       19.72           18.82           19.47           21.90 
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Lame Duck Drop
by Jim Brown

Lame duck Alan Greenspan took his market-crashing act on
the road on Friday and comments made in Germany dropped
our markets for the first weekly loss in four weeks. Alan
is in his last term as Fed head and has recently been 
taking shots at the current status quo and generally 
rocking the economic boat. As a short timer he has adopted
a Chicken Little attitude about things as diverse as Social
Security, trade imbalances, deficits and hedge funds. As 
his term fades he is setting up his "I told you so" points
for future use. Friday was a prime example. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart – Weekly

 

Friday morning Greenspan warned during a speech in Germany
that the size of the U.S. current-account deficit should
produce a diminished appetite for buying U.S. debt. While
this is not news the strong warning while out of the U.S.
and just in front of the G20 meeting in Berlin set off
alarms for traders. With China and Japan currently holding
the largest amount of all U.S. debt at 39% and another 10%
liberally dispersed among other nations the blunt warning
to those holders was a serious shock. That is like telling
a potential house buyer that your house is over valued at
the current price. Odds are good he will offer you less 
than he would have or immediately walk away. The fear is
that those countries who fund our spending by buying our
debt may rethink that concept if the chief banker thinks
it is over priced and high risk. 

Should the demand for our debt decline then interest rates
would have to rise in order to convince them to take the
risk. Higher rates cost the U.S. more money and we are
not talking chump change. With the deficit reportedly
near $1 trillion for 2005 just a +1% rise in rates will
cost a lot of money over the life of the notes. The House
voted Thursday to raise the debt ceiling by +$800 billion
to $8.2 trillion for 2005. Rates could easily rise much 
more than 1% given the Fed policy at present and no relief
in sight to balance the budget. An even worse scenario 
would appear should those foreign holders of 50% of our
debt decide to reduce positions and begin dumping that 
debt on the open market. Rates would not just rise but
immediately skyrocket and the impact on the economy 
would be very severe. 

The falling dollar is worrisome at best and while it 
will help our trade balance it needs to come down at a
controlled rate not a free fall. These comments by Alan
shocked traders and a few raced to the exits. Currency
fluctuations and implosions can appear out of nowhere
and tank markets at will. Because 99% of equity traders
have no clue how currencies affect equities or economies
the retail traders are always caught off guard. Just
when the sunshine seems brightest a lightning bolt from
the blue shocks markets into cardiac arrest. 

The comments from Greenspan went on to suggest that the
Fed may have to escalate their rate hike process to adjust
to the continued dollar drop. That was just what markets 
on the verge of a breakout needed to hear. Faster rate 
hikes ahead could mean multiple tightenings, larger hikes
and a rate parity around 6% instead of the current 3% 
target.
    
With the Euro holding above 1.30 to the dollar and just
fractions below the all time high set on Thursday the
G20 meeting is not expected to fix the problem. In fact
it could escalate the problem depending on the mood of
the attendees in light of the Greenspan comments. The
dollar index hit another multiyear low on Friday and 
Gold hit another 16 year high at $448.50. The concern
about the dollar drop as well as some minor supply
disruptions sent oil soaring back to close just under
$49 and a +2.60 gain for the day. The 100-day average
at 45.75 never broke as support and we could be at the
beginning of another oil price cycle but it will take
more than a one day spike to confirm.

Dollar Index Chart

 
Crude Oil Chart

 

The twin deficits of budget and trade are keeping our
rates artificially low according to some but others are
more concerned. Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners pointed
out that the Leading Indicators this week have fallen
for the fifth consecutive month and this is the first
time in 45 years that it has happened outside of a
recession. He pointed to the strong signs of a slowing
consumer and corporate earnings still being met more 
on cost savings than revenue increases.

The bulls view that slowdown as due to the weight of
a highly contentious election and the record high oil
prices. There will always be a difference of opinion 
between stock bulls and economic bears but having Alan
weigh in on the side of the bears is not good for stocks.
Greenspan's speech turned into a tirade against the U.S.
where he verbally questioned the wisdom of other countries
in allowing the U.S. to finance such a large deficit at
more than 5% of GDP. He went so far as to caution that
payments on large debt balances would eventually become
burdensome to the U.S. and countries concentrating their
assets in U.S. debt could be at risk. 

Can you believe this? Sounds like a dad lecturing a
teenager about the evils of high car payments and their
inability to pay in front of the loan officer deciding
whether or not to make the loan. Later he literally
told them that they should be demanding higher interest
rates to offset the increasing risk. He basically said
if they would buy less debt and demand higher rates the
U.S. would be forced to import less and live on a budget.
While I agree with the long term concept of balancing
trade and living on a budget I don't believe Greenspan
should go to the G20 and tell them to cut off our life
support. 

While it is too early to tell if foreign banks will cut
our allowance the impact of Greenspan's verbal tongue
lashing was immediate. The markets imploded at the open
and never looked back. None of the major indexes ever
made a higher high for the entire day. It started out
as an express elevator to the basement from the 100th
floor and ended up pausing to let a few passengers off
on the last several levels. The end result was a Dow
that failed at support at 10550, 10500 and 10475 to 
slide to a stop at 10450 with only a minimal bout of
short covering at the close. Should the slide continue
on Monday there is substantial support from 10375 to
10400 and the likely bottom of any further selling. 
As much as everybody wanted the Dow to break 10600 it
was exactly the right spot for a failure to occur. The
Greenspan comments were just the extra push the bulls
needed to take profits. By pausing to rest at 10600
the Dow will be stronger if it decides to tackle
10750 and the highs for the year. 

The Nasdaq gave up 2100 after only two days at that 
altitude and spent most of the afternoon fighting to
cling to 2075. That battle was lost just before the
close with the index going out at 2071. The equivalent
support to Dow 10400 is Nasdaq 2040 and well below our
closing level. 

The Nasdaq drop was accelerated by a chip downgrade by
Goldman Sachs. The broker said there was more pain ahead
for chips due to over capacity and lack of demand. Smith
Barney immediately fired back that the worst was over 
and chips should be bought on weakness ahead of a 
rebound in 2005. Intel CEO Craig Barrett again said 
he sees chip demand increasing in 2005 and defended 
his planned capacity increases. Ultimately the markets
listened to Goldman Sachs and sold chips faster than a
peanut vendor at a ball game. The SOX had closed at a
breakout high of 445 on Thursday and that move was
completely erased with a drop to 432 by the close. It
is still above downtrend resistance but it was a nasty
retracement given the recent recovery talk.

SOX Chart

 
Russell Chart

 

The Russell was hit especially hard with a drop from 
622 to 613 but it was not as clear intraday. The morning
drop was vertical but was over by 10:00. The Russell held
615 for the next five hours with a minor upward bias but
a sell program just before the close completed the drop.
The Russell has rebounded +22% from the low for the year
at 516 set on August 13th. +12% of that bounce had been
from the 562 low made on Oct-20th to the 628 high on
Wednesday. The Russell was definitely due for a rest and
the sudden appearance of Darth Greenspan Vader shook up
those investors and they fled the scene. Considering the
amount of profit on the table a -15 point drop from the
Wednesday highs to the Friday close was only a hiccup.

The SPX traded in a range from 1175-1185 for most of the
week with the intraday spike on Wednesday the only real
deviation. On Friday the opening drop knocked us back 
below 1175 and we never recovered. You might remember
the 1175 level was critical on the advance as the 2002
resistance high that held for all of 2002. Due to the
strength of the rally it only took two days to squeeze
by on the way up. Now that it is five points above
us again and the race to catch the rally train has
slowed it might be a little harder to move back over
that level. The SPX held 1170 at the close. That level 
did not have any significance on the way up and I think
the sellers just ran out of stock on Friday. Remember
we have had a complete lack of sellers for three weeks.
There is nothing to suggest that conditions have changed.
The really strong support is waiting at 1165 and it is 
strong enough to blunt anything but a concentrated bout
of real selling on high volume. 

The most accurate measure of the market is the Wilshire
5000 and it lost -127 on Friday to close at 11483. The
Wilshire has very strong support at 10375 and very strong
resistance at 10620. This suggests we could see continued
selling on Monday to retest the 10400 level but that
retest should hold. 

Wilshire Chart

  

For next week the historical trend is normally bullish.
Of course that assumes the Grinch that stole Christmas
is not running around Germany passing out business cards
for collection agents in case of payment default by the
U.S. When asked later if his position meant the Fed might
raise rates more than the market expected he replied,
"rising rates has been advertised for so long that anyone
not currently hedged is desirous of losing money." In
English, yes, you can bet we are going to continue to 
raise rates. The Fed fund futures are predicting a 91%
chance of a hike in December and an 80+% chance of a 
hike in February. 
 
What happens next week is going to be dictated by 
what happens at the open on Monday. The odds are very
good there are quite a few traders and mutual funds 
that are celebrating this weekend. The Friday drop 
took a lot of excitement out of prices without a
material drop in the indexes. Biggest hit were the
financials, home builders and any interest sensitive
stock. Some of that money rotated back into oil and
energy stocks despite any material reason for the
price spike. Iraq production was slowed by weather 
and some terrorist attacks but nothing new there. 
The strike in Nigeria was cancelled again. That has
been on and off so many times it resembles the Three
Stooges caught in a perpetually revolving door. Russia
says it will auction off assets of Yukos over the next
30 days to pay for back taxes but there is not expected
to be any disruption in production. Oil production has
mostly returned to normal from the Gulf and there has
been a steady build in supplies to a more normal level.
I see the smoke in the price hike but I don't see the
fire that caused it. I suspect more than anything it
was related to option expiration and short covering.

That brings us back to equities once again and while
there is economic unrest in the financial community
from Greenspan's comments I see no real reason for the
selling in equities to continue. I believe the knee
jerk reaction triggered additional profit taking sell 
stops. Add in option expiration and mass confusion was
the result.

There are no material economic reports on Monday and 
volume may start to slow for the holiday week. Money
is still flowing into the markets at an average of 
$1.2B per day since Nov-1st. $8.5B flowed in over the
last eight days. Sucking up that $8.5 billion was over
$6.5 billion in new offerings over just the last three
days as well as money pouring into the new ETF for Gold.
Over $500 million poured into the GLD shares on Friday.
The very strong new offering calendar may have blunted
the dip buying on Friday. PLAY priced 6.25 million 
shares at $17 Thursday night and the stock soared to
$26.25 in its first day of trading on Friday. Over
ten million shares traded with only six million priced.
Who says day trading died?

Google insiders filed with the SEC late Friday to sell
16.6 million shares. 7.2 million each for Larry Page
and Sergey Brin and 2.2 million shares for CEO Eric
Schmidt. Separately Kleiner Perkins, a venture capital
firm that helped Google raise capital filed to sell 5.78
million shares. Kleiner Perkins bought the shares for 
49 cents each in the early stages of Google financing. 
Definitely a windfall and I definitely don't fault them
for selling. It is not real money until it is converted
to cash. 

We are just over a week away from a massive injection
of liquidity into the market and everybody should be
planning for the bounce. On December 2nd Microsoft will
pay out $32 billion in the form of a $3 per share dividend.
According to the pencil pushers who analyze these things
at least 40% will be put back into the market within a
week. That 40% ($12.8 billion) is the portion owned by
funds that automatically reinvest all dividends. Another
20% will hit the market over the next week from those
funds that are discretionary in reinvestment. $3 billion
will go to Gates and he is giving it to charity. That
leaves $9 billion that will be paid to individual 
shareholders. Much of that will already be spent at the
mall on plastic the weekend after Thanksgiving. Some 
will be reinvested in stock but estimates are for less
than 50%. Using just the fund numbers at $19 billion 
going back into stocks over a two week period between 
Dec-2nd and 17th the market should be floating on some
major liquidity. That $19 billion is in addition to the
normal cash inflows during December. It should be a 
merry Christmas for everyone. 

Unfortunately we still have to get past Monday. If the
Friday drop was just knee jerk reaction, sell stops and
option expiration then Monday should be a consolidation
day. Bulls will stagger to their feet, look cautiously
around and start to move back up the hill before the
close of business. Remember, funds will want to be in
the market before that big liquidity balloon hits on
Dec-2nd. This should cause them to buy the dip as well
but I am sure there will be a lot of consternation at
the open on Monday. Was the drop on real worry or just
an imagined problem? Each fund will want somebody else
to make the first buy and everybody will be looking for
confirmation we are not going lower. There will be 
opening volatility from option settlement and we need
those ripples to fade before wading back into the water.
Those traders waking up with a hole in their account
from being called away or suddenly finding stock in
their account they did not expect will rush to adjust
positions back to level. If a trader sold 10 contracts
of the $55 puts on TASR thinking he would capture the
$4 premium from out of the money options last week then
you may be surprised to find 1000 shares of TASR in your
account on Monday. That would set you back about $52,000
and crimp your trading style until you unloaded that 
stock. TASR dropped -$6 on Friday. Moral to that story 
is always have stops in place. That is the kind of option
settlement adjustment that normally keeps OpEx Mondays 
from being too directional.

If next week does not finish higher I would be surprised.
The last five years have seen some major moves before
and after Thanksgiving with Friday having the better
chance of a positive finish than the beginning of the
week. In 2002 the Tuesday before saw a -173 point drop
and Wednesday saw a +255 point gain. Volatility has been
strong and we are coming out of a string of negative days
early in the week that started in 1998. With the bear
market behind us we are due for a positive bounce. Last
year the week before Thanksgiving was terrible with the
Dow losing about -250 points to a Friday close at 9628.
Beginning on Monday with a +125 point gain the holiday
week was bullish and it was also the beginning of the
strongest eight weeks of the year with the Dow topping
out at 10701 on Jan-26th. The +1000 point romp was the
finishing sprint to a market that had already rebounded
from the March lows at 7416. After tacking on +2200 points
in the prior eight months the November dip set the stage
for another +1000 points with hardly a down day for the 
rest of the year. Will that happen in 2004? Nobody knows
but the Friday drop came at exactly the right time to 
clear the profit stops and let new money back into the 
game. 

Dow Chart - Thanksgiving 2003

 


Personally I am looking forward to the next six weeks
and I hope we see a repeat of 2003. All the bad news is
behind us and according to most analysts there are good
times ahead. Maybe not boom times but a good environment
for good stocks to prosper. I believe this lure of a
promising future will continue to attract money into 
the market until year end. Once past the year-end is
where the mystery begins again. Until then continue to 
buy the dips above Dow 10350, SPX 1160. If those levels
break then all bets are off and Santa may not be coming
to the markets this year. 

Santa is coming to Option Investor! We are beginning our
end of year renewal special this weekend and it is a 
super deal that I am sure you will enjoy. Please take
a minute to read the details below!
  
Sell Too Soon!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Finally!
- J. Brown

Finally!  We've been waiting for a dip in the markets for days 
and it finally appears to be happening.  Stocks were down across 
the board on Friday save for energy and gold stocks.  The bounce 
in oil did not help investor sentiment.  Crude had been trading 
at four weeks lows and looked ready to breakdown under its simple 
100-dma.  Yet oil turned higher on Friday with a 4.8 percent 
rebound.  It could just be an oversold bounce.  We'll have to 
watch and see.  

Meanwhile comments over the U.S. dollar also promoted more profit 
taking in stocks.  If the dollar continues to weaken then 
commodity prices in the U.S. will continue to rise, which will 
promote inflation throughout the economy.  

One could easily argue that the two big picture pressures 
mentioned above are just excuses to sell.  Stocks have been so 
overbought and extended it was past time that equities did some 
consolidating.  Yet the brokers were not helping matters.  
Goldman Sachs downgraded the semiconductor sector and BAC started 
coverage on Amazon.com (AMZN) with a "sell" rating.  Plus, there 
was talk in Washington surrounding the FDA and speculation over 
its recent failures and how it could be more effective.  This put 
pressure on biotech and drug stocks again.

Market internals were naturally very bearish with decliners 
outpacing advancers 5-to-2 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  
Down volume was more than 3 times up volume on the NYSE and over 
twice the up volume on the NASDAQ.  

Overall I'm not concerned.  We've been waiting for this pull back 
for days.  There are a lot of investors out there just looking to 
buy the dip.  The real question is how deep will the dip go?  
Keep your eyes and ears open this week it should provide the sort 
of bullish entry point we're looking for into the rest of the 
fourth quarter.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10456

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10478
 50-dma: 10161 
200-dma: 10244 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1170

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1174
 50-dma: 1132
200-dma: 1121



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1552

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1548
 50-dma: 1465
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.50 +0.52
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.60 +0.65
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 19.72 +0.93 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.81      1,356,899     1,098,849
Equity Only    0.52      1,161,274       603,669
OEX            1.33         55,717        74,080
QQQ            1.07         59,286        63,654


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          72.5    + 0.3   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    75.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   63.3    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       72.8    - 0.2   Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       70.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.89
10-dma: 0.95
21-dma: 0.92
55-dma: 1.00


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     817       967
Decliners    2011      2061

New Highs      88        69
New Lows       12        14

Up Volume    448M      628M
Down Vol.   1432M     1353M

Total Vol.  1891M     2005M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/16/04


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

For the first time in weeks the commercials are making a move.  
They upped their short positions days before the recent decline.
Meanwhile small traders remain marginally net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.4%)
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials traders also piled on the shorts in the e-minis
to produce the most bearish reading in weeks.  Small traders
also put more money to work but remained strongly net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercials added to both their longs and their shorts but
saw no change in their bullish bias for the NDX.  Small traders
pared back some of their shorts but remained strong net bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (28,038) - 11/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Given the latest data as of 11/16/04 it looks like commercials
were beginning to bet on a pull back.  There was a reduction
in longs and an increase in shorts to create the first bearish
reading in weeks.  Small traders also increased their bearish
bias.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 36.55 change: -1.26

WHAT TO WATCH: The biotech and drug sectors have been weak for a 
couple of days now (actually a week for the BTK).  Both indices 
look poised for more weakness.  Leading the way down could be 
MRX.  Shares peaked near $41 in late October and have been 
sliding ever since.  The trend of lower highs has blossomed into 
a breakdown under support near $38 and its exponential 200-dma.  
Friday's high-volume decline could be an entry point for bearish 
plays.  We would target the August lows near $33.




---

Occidental Petroleum - OXY - close: 58.43 change: +1.13

WHAT TO WATCH: The oil and energy-related sectors were one of the 
few standouts that avoided the market sell-off on Friday.  There 
are dozens of bullish candidates in the sector but we like OXY.  
Shares have been consolidating the last six weeks and that 
consolidation is almost over.  Actually one could argue that it 
is over.  The 1.97 percent rally on Friday produced a new MACD 
buy signal.  Plus, its bullish P&F chart points to a $96 target.  
Readers can use a move over $59 or $60 as a new entry point.  We 
would target $65-70 by mid-January.




---

Elan Corp - ELN - close: 27.83 change: -1.67

WHAT TO WATCH: ELN has been one drug stock that has ignored a lot 
of the weakness in the sector the past several weeks.  Now that 
the broader market is beginning to pull back we are seeing profit 
taking in ELN.  Watch for a pull back toward the $25.00 level, 
which should be support.  Nimble traders could try and scalp that 
decline.  





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

UCL $44.30 +0.66 - Here's another oil-related stock that is 
breaking out to new multi-year highs.

DNR $26.28 +0.57 - Here's another bullish oil stock.

ESPD $10.64 -0.24 - Watch to see if the $10.50 level holds or if 
shares retrace to the $10.00 mark. 

PCO $41.56 +0.42 - We remain bullish on PCO especially given its 
relative strength on Friday. 

NFLX $11.25 -0.67 - Ouch!  NFLX gave up a big chunk of Thursday's 
gains.  Watch to see if it bounces from $11.00.

BRCM $30.60 -1.14 - Keep an eye on BRCM to see if shares bounce 
at $30.00 or $29.00.

PMCS $11.41 -0.61 - PMCS is struggling with resistance at $12.00 
and its exponential 200-dma.  Watch for a pullback toward the 
$10.50 level.


=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-21-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  SEBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  ASKJ
  Closed Bullish Plays:  JNPR

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACH, CHK, ZEUS, OMM, ONXX, PCU, RIG, 
  Bearish Play Updates:  TSCO
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CHH

Stock Splits
  Announcements:         None


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

Editor's note:
There are no new plays this weekend.  The markets look poised
for a pull back but we don't expect it to last very long as
traders jump in trying to buy the dip.  We'll attempt to add
new candidates on Monday.


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Siebel Systems - SEBL - close:  9.91 change: -0.11 stop: 9.49

Danger!  This is a pivotal test for shares of SEBL.  The very 
overbought, very extended GSO software index is starting to 
falter and looks ready to produce a much-needed pull back.  Such 
a decline in the sector index could have a very bearish affect on 
SEBL.  SEBL's recent breakout over the $10.00 mark and its simple 
200-dma is already being challenged.  The drop under $10.00 is a 
big yellow flag for the bulls.  If shares trade under $9.75 we 
may want to use it as an early warning system and bail out.  We 
are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.  Watch for 
the dip and wait to see if and where SEBL bounces. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 17 at $10.18
Gain since picked:       - 0.27
Earnings Date          10/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       7.5 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 23.74 change: -1.42 stop: 26.26*new*

ASKJ look poised to hit new relative lows here.  Investors have 
become more squeamish on the stock with heavy competition from 
GOOG and MSFT in the search space.  Plus, GOOG's recent comments 
about revenues not being as strong going forward is bad news for 
ASKJ as ASKJ does a huge amount of business with GOOG.  After 
days of consolidating between $25.00 and $26.25 we're finally 
seeing a breakdown.  This looks like an entry point for new 
shorts.  We're going to lower our stop loss to $26.26.  Our 
initial target is still $20.00.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $24.10 
Gain since picked:       - 0.36
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.7 million 




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 27.93 chg: -0.84 stop: 25.49     

We remain bullish on JNPR throughout the remainder of the fourth 
quarter.  Unfortunately the market is due for a pull back and it 
looks like the dip begins next week.  JNPR fell back under the 
$28.00 level, which was once resistance and should have been 
support.  We're going to exit here and watch for a dip back 
toward $26.00.  If JNPR bounces from $26.00 we may reconsider 
jumping in again.

Picked on October 31 at $26.61 
Gain since picked:      + 1.32
Earnings Date         10/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      9.1 million 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

Editor's note:
There are no new plays this weekend.  The markets look poised
for a pull back but we don't expect it to last very long as
traders jump in trying to buy the dip.  We'll attempt to add
new candidates on Monday.


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


 Aluminum Corp China - ACH - close: 61.41 chg: -0.47 stop: 59.75

ACH has spent the last few days consolidating sideways in a 
relatively narrow range.  It would appear that the stock is 
hugging its simple 200-dma.  We are not encouraged by the slip 
back under resistance at the $62.00 level but we still expect the 
$60.00 mark to offer support.  Readers can wait and watch for a 
bounce from $60 as a new bullish entry point.  If that doesn't 
suit your style then wait for a rebound back over the $63 level. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $63.45 
Gain since picked:       - 2.04
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand



---

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 17.17 change: +0.14 stop: 16.00

Energy play CHK has spent the last four days rebounding from 
Monday's decline and test of support near $16.50.  The stock 
looks poised to breakout to new highs.  This seems very bullish 
in light of CHK's news on Friday that the company would convert 
all of its 6.75 percent preferred stock into common shares, 
effectively diluting the stock of the common shareholder.  We 
would wait and watch for a move over $17.30 before initiating new 
bullish positions. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 12 at $17.21
Gain since picked:       - 0.04
Earnings Date          11/01/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 



---

Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 19.70 chg: -0.23 stop: 18.49*new*

Uh-oh!  It's time to double-check your stop loss placement.  
We're not excited about ZEUS' pull back under round-number 
support/resistance at the $20.00 level.  Fortunately, ZEUS still 
has support near the $19.00 mark.  Conservative traders may want 
to raise their stop loss.  We're going to raise our stop to 
$18.49, just under the simple 40-dma.  So far this looks like a 
normal pull back after the early November run up but we want to 
be careful and minimize our risk.  Aggressive traders may want to 
buy a bounce from $19.00.  We're suggesting readers look for 
another rally up and through the $20.50 mark. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $20.65 
Gain since picked:       - 0.95
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:           million 



---

OMI Corp - OMM - close: 18.86 change: +0.05 stop: 16.99


OMM spent the last four days consolidating sideways in a very 
narrow trading range.  It seems like the stock is digesting its 
gains from the previous week.  If it wasn't for the broader-
market's overbought condition we'd look for OMM to trade higher.  
Unfortunately, we suspect OMM will actually trend lower and 
retest support at the $18.00 level.  Watch for the dip.  Traders 
can be ready for the bounce when it occurs.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $18.45 
Gain since picked:       + 0.41
Earnings Date          10/18/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       1.1 million 



---

ONYX Pharma - ONXX - close: 31.08  change: -0.30 stop: 29.95

The trend of higher lows continues.  We added ONXX on Wednesday 
with a trigger to go long at $31.26.  Our goal was to catch a 
breakout over resistance at $31.20 or the bottom of its gap down.  
ONXX did breakout on Thursday triggering our play but the stock 
has been unable to maintain its gains.  Overall we're not 
complaining about a 30-cent loss when the Industrials dropped 115 
and the NASDAQ 1.6 percent.  However, we are expecting ONXX to 
see more profit taking.  Watch for a dip back to the $30.00 
level, which should be support. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 18 at $31.26
Gain since picked:       - 0.14
Earnings Date          11/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 million 




---

Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 46.10 chg: -0.75 stop: 44.49

Hmm.. we're growing more and more concerned over PCU's 
performance.  Shares spiked higher on Wednesday when copper 
prices broke through resistance at the $1.40 a pound level.  Yet 
since then PCU has continued to trade lower in spite of the fact 
that copper prices have continued to climb.  We're willing to 
hold on to PCU for a couple of more days but conservative traders 
may want to consider exiting early if PCU trades under $46.00.  
Actually, we may consider exiting early if PCU trades under $46.  
In the news a Reuters article states that 1,500 workers for PCU 
have suspended their threat to strike until February.  The market 
may not know what to do with this info.  Is it good news that the 
strike has been pushed back?  Or is it bad news that there is 
still a threat? 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $47.90 
Gain since picked:       - 1.80
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       353 thousand



---

Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 39.97 change: +1.18 stop: 36.00*new*

Wow!  When RIG decided it was time to move it really moves.  We 
have been waiting for RIG to breakout of its trading range and 
through resistance at the $37.50 level.  Shares did just that on 
Thursday with a big high-volume powered rally to $38.79.  We were 
triggered at $37.51.  Friday witness a strong, high-volume follow 
through on Thursday's breakout.  Readers can choose two entries 
for new plays.  Hope for a pull back and buy the any dip above 
$38.00 or be aggressive and buy a breakout over $40.00.  We'd 
suggest the dip-buying strategy.  We are raising our stop to 
$36.00.  The bullish P&F chart now points to a $56.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 18 at $37.51
Gain since picked:       + 2.46
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tractor Supply Co - TSCO - close: 33.79 change: -1.38 stop: 37.05

TSCO is finally producing the sort of sell-off we've been waiting 
for.  Shares teased the bulls by coming very close to resistance 
at the $37.00 level several times but eventually the selling 
resumed.  TSCO's 3.9 percent decline on Friday was much worse 
than the market's pull back or the drop in the RLX retail index.  
That's the kind of relative weakness we like to see in a short. 
Volume was well above average on the drop further suggesting more 
weakness ahead.  If you missed your entry point it's not too late 
to consider bearish positions.  TSCO now has minor resistance at 
$34 and again at $35.  We are targeting a move into the $31-30 
range and we suspect TSCO could hit the lower edge of our target. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 07 at $35.68 
Gain since picked:       - 1.89
Earnings Date          10/11/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       422 thousand




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Choice Hotel - CHH - close: 50.06 change: -0.03 stop: 52.00

The lack of follow through on last week's breakdown under the 
200-dma put us on the defensive with CHH.  Now with the stock's 
lack of participation in the market's sell-off this Friday we're 
going to call it quits.  CHH never broke support at the $47.50 
level and never hit our entry point to open the play at $47.49.  
We're closing the play unopened.


Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       151 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None



=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-21-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 22nd, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

=========================================
Market Watch for the week of October 11th
=========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

*This is not a complete list.  We only try and highlight the 
more significant earnings reports.


Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BRCD Brocade Commun.      Mon, Nov 22  After the market     0.06
CPB  Campbell Soup        Mon, Nov 22  ----- n/a -----      0.52
FRK  Florida Rock Ind.    Mon, Nov 22  Before the bell      0.65
KKD  Krispy Kreme         Mon, Nov 22  Before the bell      0.13
TIVO TIVO Inc             Mon, Nov 22  ----- n/a -----     -0.44
TOY  Toys R Us            Mon, Nov 22  Before the bell     -0.15
VAL  Valspar              Mon, Nov 22  Before the bell      0.76

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ADI  Analog Devices Inc   Tue, Nov 23  After the market     0.33
BMO  Bank of Montreal     Tue, Nov 23  ----- n/a -----      0.89
DE   Deere & Co           Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.99
DLTR Dollar Tree Stores   Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.28
EV   Eaton Vance          Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.52
FRED Fred's               Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.19
HRB  H&R Block            Tue, Nov 23  After the market    -0.16
HNZ  H.J.Heinz            Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.59
MIK  Michaels Stores      Tue, Nov 23  After the market     0.30
MBT  Mobile Teleys        Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      3.17
POSS Possis Medical       Tue, Nov 23  After the market     0.11
SEAC SeaChange Intl       Tue, Nov 23  After the market     0.12
TSA  The Sports Authority Tue, Nov 23  ----- n/a -----      0.02
TECD Tech Data Corp       Tue, Nov 23  After the market     0.55
JWL  Whitehall Jewellers  Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell     -0.53
WIND Wind River Systems   Tue, Nov 23  Before the bell      0.03
WWE  World Wresting Ent.  Tue, Nov 23  ----- n/a -----      0.13


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

HRL  Hormel Foods Corp    Wed, Nov 24  Before the bell      0.49
AHO  Koninklijke Ahold    Wed, Nov 24  Before the bell      n/a
PDCO Patterson Dental     Wed, Nov 24  Before the bell      0.32


------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

BAY  Bayer                Thr, Nov 25  ----- n/a -----      n/a


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

no major earnings


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

STJ     St. Jude Medical          2:1      Nov 22nd    Nov 23rd
TASR    TASER Intl. Inc           2:1      Nov 29th    Nov 30th
MSL     MidSouth Bancorp          5:4      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
SYMC    Symantec                  2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
RYL     Ryland Group Inc.         2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
ANNB    Annapolis Bancorp         4:3      Dec  3rd    Dec  6th
CAKE    Cheesecake Factory        3:2      Dec  8th    Dec  9th

-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------

The Thanksgiving holiday week looks like a quiet one.  Q3 earnings
really taper off and most of the economic reports come out on
Wednesday before the holiday.


==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 11/22/04
----------------



-----------------
Tuesday, 11/23/04
-----------------
Existing Home Sales for October


-------------------
Wednesday, 11/24/04
-------------------
Durable Orders for October
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Michigan Sentiment for November (revised)
Help Wanted Index for October
New Home Sales for October

------------------
Thursday, 11/25/04
------------------
U.S. Markets Closed - Thanksgiving Holiday


----------------
Friday, 11/26/04
----------------
U.S. Markets - Shortened Trading Day


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

COP     ConocoPhillips             87.43     +1.17
OXY     Occidental Petroleum       58.43     +1.13
DVN     Devon Energy               38.68     +0.60
RTRSY   Reuters Group Plc          45.30     +0.86
UHS     Universal Health Svcs      45.77     +0.59
HUG     Hughes Supply              32.26     +2.12

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MYL     Mylan Labs                 18.88     +1.72
UNM     Unumprovident              15.35     +1.62
SORC    The Source Info Mgmt Co    11.90     +1.10
TRGL    Toreador Resources         15.59     +1.82

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
EOG     EOG Resources               71.34     +2.05
MEE     Massey Energy               34.20     +2.48
HUG     Hughes Supply Inc           32.26     +2.12
PXP     Plains Exploration          25.81     +1.04
MEG     Media General               61.64     +1.70
SRNA    Serena Software             21.20     +3.05
MMS     Maximus Inc                 31.01     +2.51

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NKE     Nike Inc                   82.50     -2.50
BIIB    Biogen Idec                55.34     -2.18
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            39.99     -1.31
OSIP    OSI Pharmaceuticals        58.16     -6.09
MRX     Medicis Pharma             36.55     -1.26
CUZ     Cousins Properties Inc     31.64     -7.66
TSCO    Tractor Supply Co          33.79     -1.38
MATK    Martek Biosciences         39.61     -1.90

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

LEH     Lehman Brothers            81.64     -1.70
URBN    Urban Outfitters           43.45     -2.21
R       Ryder Systems              53.18     -1.72
TECD    Tech Data                  41.90     -1.21
ESS     Essex Property Trust       78.10     -1.74
CAI     Caci Intl Inc              60.66     -3.26

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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