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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 11/22/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 11-22-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: As the World Turns   
Watch List: Almost All About Energy  


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
      11-22-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10489.42 + 32.51 10508.04 10432.01 1.73 bln 1991/ 840
NASDAQ   2085.19 + 14.56  2085.19  2052.80 1.90 bln 1799/1235
S&P 100   561.64 +  1.95   562.42   557.94   Totals 3790/2075
S&P 500  1177.24 +  6.90  1178.18  1167.89
SOX       432.88 +  1.00   434.59   426.09
RUS 2000  621.52 +  8.08   621.59   612.02
DJ TRANS 3609.24 + 41.59  3613.07  3559.77
VIX        12.97 -  0.53    13.71    12.94
VXO (VIX-O)13.58 -  1.02    14.28    13.48
VXN        18.77 -  0.95    20.07    18.72
Total Volume 3,637M
Total UpVol  2,349M
Total DnVol  1,231M
Total Adv  3790
Total Dcl  2075
52wk Highs  331 
52wk Lows    29
TRIN       0.99
PUT/CALL   0.73 
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

As the World Turns
Linda Piazza

Thanksgiving week opened with a day light on U.S. economic 
releases, but heavy on global news that might impact our markets.  

The only scheduled U.S. economic release was the 6:00 EST release
of the SEMI Book-to-Bill number, but the weekend had been heavy
with meetings among the world's political and economic leaders.
Added to that mix were various global and analyst reports.  Those
included an International Monetary Fund report that lowered the
IMF's forecast for the globe's 2005 economic growth, a negative
Merrill Lynch report on PC sales that initially hit tech stocks
and a Piper Jaffray decision to raise earnings estimates for
Apple Computer.  Piper Jaffray also set a new, attention-getting
price target of $100.00.

By the end of the day, the dollar had temporarily stabilized and
crude had retreated off its high of the day.  Most indices had
posted gains, with the BTK (Biotechnology Index), TRAN (Dow Jones
Transportation Index), XNG (Natural Gas Index), UTY (Utility
Index) and DJUSHB (Dow Jones Home Construction Index) being among
the standouts, each posting more than 1 percent gains.

Daily Chart of the SPX:

 

Annotated 15-Minute Chart of the SPX:

 
 
Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:

 

Annotated 15-Minute Chart for the Nasdaq:

 

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

 

The TRAN, the Dow's sister index, sometimes gives advance notice
as to the direction the Dow and S&P's are most likely to take. 
The TRAN is sensitive to both crude and economic issues.

Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN:

 

Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:

 

What happens tomorrow will likely be influenced by the reaction
to the SEMI book-to-bill number, with that number not yet
released as this report was prepared, and crude prices.  

Annotated Daily Chart of Crude for January Delivery:

 

The dollar's performance remains important, but the dollar
consolidated much of Monday.  With the Nikkei closed Tuesday for
a one-day holiday, the dollar/yen pair may continue to
consolidate or zoom around in a choppy fashion difficult to
predict, and the euro/dollar pair may follow suit.

Currency issues have been much featured in financial newsletters
and television reports late last week and through today.  This
weekend, finance ministers and central bank members from twenty
countries concluded a meeting without a statement addressing the
dollar's decline against other currencies.  According to one
article, German officials had attempted to include language that
criticized the volatility of recent currency moves, but the U.S.
rejected the language.  

Going into the meeting, many had feared that no consensus could
be reached, but that lack of consensus still remained a
disappointment.  Some interpreted the lack of a statement to mean
that some participants wanted to see currencies fluctuate freely
against the dollar.  Some must have argued against the kind of
intervention that has been practiced in the past by Japan and
South Korea to weaken their currencies against the dollar.  

China, too, has been under pressure to allow its currency to
fluctuate against the dollar, with China's President Hu Jintao
reportedly telling President Bush separately, in their meeting in
Chile, that China will consider allowing more flexibility, but
only if economic conditions are stable.  A stronger dollar
benefits foreign exporters but hurts U.S. exporters.  Some feel
that a weaker dollar is needed to lower the U.S. deficit, but
other countries fight to protect their more fragile economies.  

Currency experts felt that the lack of a statement and the
presumed reasoning behind that lack suggested further declines in
the dollar against other currencies.  That decline against some
currencies didn't take long to occur, as the dollar fell to
multi-year lows against South Korea's won, but throughout most of
the U.S. trading day, the dollar consolidated against most other
currencies.

Another meeting, the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit,
occurred in Santiago, Chile.  However, despite the "economic"
thrust of those meetings, North Korea's nuclear threat issues was
the subject of a bilateral meeting with President Bush and
Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi.  At that bilateral meeting,
President Bush reaffirmed his intention that discussions with
North Korea must be multi-party ones, including other Pacific Rim
leaders.  

Iran's nuclear threat was also discussed, with President Bush
also meeting with China, South Korea and Russia to discuss Iran's
threat.  In the wake of those meetings and at the eurozone
countries' urging, Iran on Monday suspended enrichment processes
that could be used to develop a bomb.  Some consider the
suspension a ploy to avoid the U.S.'s request that the U.N.
sanction the country.  The U.S. wants a statement added in the EU
draft resolution to the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) that sets forth measures to be taken if Iran restarts its
enrichment program.  

Iran has already warned that it's not that country's intention to
make the suspension permanent.  Rather, Iran intends the
suspension as an effort to restore confidence in its peaceful
goals for the program.  The IAEA has been in the process of
confirming the suspension, with a report likely at a Thursday
meeting.  

Discussions about a comprehensive global trade accord and free
trade agreements were also scheduled for that Asian Pacific
Economic Cooperation Summit.  At the conclusion of his meeting
with Prime Minister Koizumi, President Bush reiterated his
commitment to a strong dollar and to lowering the U.S. budget
deficit, both a concern of our trading partners, but his
statement made little impact in convincing market watchers that
the dollar would stem its slide on more than a temporary basis. 

That concern about the U.S. budget deficit and dollar performance
was heightened by the International Monetary Fund's lowering of
the globe's 2005 economic growth forecasts, to 4.0 percent from
the IMF's former 4.3 percent estimate.  The IMF cited the U.S.'s
budget deficit and higher crude costs when lowering that
forecast.  

Computer makers were the subject of conflicting reports Monday. 
Merrill Lynch proposed that PC sales growth had already peaked
for 2004, at 12 percent.  The firm expects sales growth for 2005
and 2006 to be lower, at 9 and 6 percent, respectively.  

Piper Jaffray had more encouraging things to say about computer
maker Apple (AAPL), raising the company's full-year earnings
estimate for 2005-2006.  Piper Jaffray caught the attention of
market watchers when the firm raised the price target to $100
from its current $52.  The firm took this step after conducting a
six-week survey of former PC users who bought iPods, determining
that a healthy 13 percent of those intended to buy or had already
bought Macs. In the interests of accounting for errors or bias
among survey participants, Piper Jaffray's analyst trimmed those
estimates back to a 6.5 percent capture rate for reeling in
first-time Mac buyers.  

Fulcrum Global Partners also raised Apple's price target, but to
$65.00.  The firm's analyst cited strong sales of iPods and iMac
G5 desktops, and increased his estimates of iPod sales and IMac
shipments.  He expects Mac shipments to grow faster than in the
overall PC market.  

The GHA, the GSTI Hardware Index, includes AAPL as a component
stock, as well as a number of PC makers.  While many component
stocks started the day under pressure, the GHA climbed,
consolidated, and climbed again into the close, with the GHA's
strong performance perhaps predicting early on that the Nasdaq
would rise by the end of the day, too.  Despite the disturbing
news from Merrill Lynch, this strong performer's daily candle
engulfed Friday's bearish one, touching 300 and closing just
above it at 300.07.  The GHA should be watched for rollover or
breakout potential.

Annotated Daily Chart of the GHA:

 

Other developments Monday included a 2.53 percent loss in Google
(GOOG) after Friday's report on insider selling and 2.16 and 4.93
percent gains, respectively, in Toys R Us (TOY) and Campbell Soup
Company (CPB) after their better-than-expected earnings results. 
Oracle dropped 0.54 percent.  PeopleSoft shareholders decided
they would take ORCL's offer, but PeopleSoft's board still
insisted that the offer undervalued the company.  ORCL said it
would seek a hearing this week in Delaware to resolve the issue.  

The calendar for economic releases remains light Tuesday.  At
10:30, investors get a glimpse of October's Existing Home Sales. 
After the close, the ABC Consumer Confidence number will be
released at 6:30 EST.  The Nikkei won't trade tonight, but watch
the futures' reaction to the SEMI book-to-bill number for some
insight into the impact of that number.  The tech-heavy Taiwan
Weighted and South Korean Kospi can also be watched to gauge
reaction to that number.  Remember that markets are already
seeing holiday-lightened volumes, and volumes may stagnate even
more as Thanksgiving approaches.  Be prepared for stagnate
markets, too, or for markets that chop around in difficult-to-
anticipate moves.  Don't get married to any positions in a light-
volume, holiday week.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Occidential Petroleum - OXY - close: 59.45 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: We have highlighted OXY before.  The stock is one 
of several in the oil sector that is leading the way higher.  The 
oil patch looks poised for another leg higher and could be a 
great way to play it.  Shares of OXY have broken through its 
short-term trend of lower highs.  Technicals are bullish.  The 
MACD has produced a new buy signal.  Aggressive traders could go 
long now.  Conservative traders can wait for the move over 
$60.00. The P&F chart is extremely bullish with a $96 target.  We 
would target $65-66. 




---

N S Group Inc - NSS - close: 21.58 change: +0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: This could be a momentum trader's entry point.  
NSS has just broken out over resistance at $21.50 dating back to 
the summer of 2000.  Today's 3 percent gain puts NSS at new 6 1/2 
year highs.  We think the stock looks a little extended here and 
due for a pull back but right now the trend is your friend.  The 
P&F chart shows a new double-top breakout with a $29 target.




---

Telecom Brasil - TBH - close: 29.90 change: +1.12

WHAT TO WATCH: TBH could definitely be a stock to watch.  Shares 
have been consolidating sideways between $26 and $30 for almost 
four months.  Now the stock has rallied through its 200-dma and 
is challenging resistance at the $30.00 level.  We would consider 
a move over $31.00 as a bullish entry point.  The P&F chart shows 
the same resistance in the $30-31 region but the chart is in a 
new bullish buy signal with a $39 target.




---

Cons Energy - CNX - close: 40.89 change: +1.08

WHAT TO WATCH: We hear a lot about oil and oil stocks these days 
but natural gas and utilities have been very bullish too.  CNX is 
an electric company that generates power through coal and gas.  
Shares recently broke out over resistance at the July high near 
$39.00 and round-number resistance at $40.00.  Now the stock is 
edging nearer to its all-time highs dating back to 2000 at the 
$42.50 level.  Watch for the breakout.  





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

VLO $46.23 +1.21 - Another oil-related stock breaking out over 
resistance.  Technicals are bullish.

PCO $42.83 +1.27 - We've highlighted PCO before.  It's another 
oil-related stock breaking out.

VPI $22.57 +1.02 - Another oil stock breaking out over 
resistance.

SM $40.20 +1.25 - Another oil stock with bullish technicals and 
just now breaking out of its consolidation phase.
 

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 11-22-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments: CHK, ACH     

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    CVX, DNR

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish plays:    VLCCF

Stock Splits
  Announcements:  None      


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

CHK - non-tech long -
  CHK broke out over resistance with a 2.2 percent gain
  on Monday.  This could be another bullish entry point.
 
 
ACH - non-tech long -
  Chinese aluminum miner ACH is trying to rally out of its
  current trading range.  This could be a bullish entry point, 
  or wait for a move over $63.00 to confirm.

==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

ChevronTexaco - CVX - close: 54.80 change: +0.90 stop: 51.99

Company Description:
Currently celebrating its 125th anniversary, ChevronTexaco is one 
of the world's leading energy companies. With more than 47,000 
employees, ChevronTexaco conducts business in approximately 180 
countries around the world, producing and transporting crude oil 
and natural gas, and marketing and distributing fuels and other 
energy products. ChevronTexaco is based in San Ramon, Calif.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We believe there is another leg up about to happen in the energy 
sector.  Bolstering our suspicions are new MACD buy signals in 
both the OIX oil index and the OSX oil services index.  We like 
CVX because as one of the largest players in the field it trades 
with plenty of liquidity and will probably be a little less 
volatile than some of the other oil-related issues.  Bank of 
America recently started coverage on CVX with a "buy".  Currently 
CVX has spent the last six weeks consolidating its late summer 
gains.  The stock has rallied toward resistance at $55 and looks 
ready to breakout.  Technicals are bullish and its MACD just 
produced a new buy signal.  The Point & Figure chart is extremely 
bullish with a $107 price (long-term) target.  We are going to 
target a move to $60.00-62.50 but we're going to use a trigger to 
open the play.  Our entry point will be $55.15.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.8 million 



---

Denbury Resources - DNR - close: 27.00 change: +0.72 stop: 24.49

Company Description:
Denbury Resources Inc. (www.denbury.com) is a growing independent 
oil and gas company. The Company is the largest oil and natural 
gas operator in Mississippi, owns the largest reserves of carbon 
dioxide used for tertiary oil recovery east of the Mississippi 
River, and holds significant operating acreage in onshore 
Louisiana. The Company increases the value of acquired properties 
in its core areas through a combination of exploitation drilling 
and proven engineering extraction practices, including secondary 
and tertiary recovery operations.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
DNR is another bullish candidate to play what we believe is the 
next leg up for oil stocks.  Like the CVX play DNR has been 
consolidating for the past several weeks after the summer rally.  
Now the stock is on the move again with bullish technicals and a 
new MACD buy signal.  Volume was well above average on Monday's 
2.7 percent gain.  The P&F chart is bullish as well.  Aggressive 
traders can go long at current levels but we're going to use a 
TRIGGER over the current high.  Our entry point will be $27.51.  
Our six to eight week target is the $32.50 region.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 22 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       366 thousand




==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Knightsbridge Tankers - VLCCF - cls: 37.60 chg: +2.10 stop: 34.85

Company Description:
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited is a tanker company with a fleet of 
five very large crude oil carriers or VLCCs.  Three of the five 
are under contract while the other two trade in the spot market.  
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
This is a high risk/reward play.  VLCCF has known to be volatile 
in the past few months with big swings both up and down.  We like 
it as a bullish candidate for multiple reasons.  First the entire 
"shipping" industry has seen a very strong up turn in buying 
interest.  Several stocks in the group like VLCCF are trading at 
or near new one-year highs (some at all-time highs).  We like 
VLCCF's relative strength.  The stock held up very well during 
last Friday's sell-off.  Shares of VLCCF have been digesting 
their gains with a two-week consolidation above the $35.00 level, 
which should now act as support.  Volume was more than double the 
average on today's breakout, which is always a bullish reading.  
Plus its P&F chart shows a bullish triangle breakout pattern with 
a $59 target.  P&F triangle patterns are one of the most 
successful patterns to play.  They're not guaranteed wins but 
they normally produce very consistent historical trends.  We're 
going to chase today's breakout (high-risk) and target a run 
toward $44-46.  What makes VLCCF even more of a higher-risk play 
than usual is the upcoming November 29th dividend payout.  VLCCF 
has a $1.00 payout that should impact the stock price by the same 
amount.  Unfortunately, we've missed the shareholder record date.  
Even with the payout one week away we're bullish on the stock and 
the group and think shares can trend higher through the end of 
the year. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 22 at $37.60 
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       307 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     PetroChina                 55.80     +0.85
COP     ConocoPhillips             88.87     +1.44
CVX     ChevronTexaco              54.80     +0.90
XOM     ExxonMobil                 50.91     +0.53
AIG     American Intl Group        62.85     +1.05
ALL     Allstate                   51.11     +0.83

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CREAF    Creative Technology       14.31     +2.17
ASFI     Asta Funding Inc          19.50     +1.21
NEOL     Neopharm Inc              10.80     +2.99
VTALE    Vital Images Inc          15.96     +1.49
LB       La Barge Inc              11.08     +1.13

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
AAPL    Apple Computer             61.35     +6.18
BNN     Brascan Corp               38.26     +1.22
CPB     Campbell Soup              28.71     +1.35
AHC     Amerada Hess               86.32     +3.53
BTU     Peabody Energy             78.79     +4.23
CCJ     Cameco Corp                96.97     +3.97
FRO     Frontline Ltd (ADR)        62.80     +3.32

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MDT     Medtronic                  47.01     -1.19
FRX     Forest Labs                36.80     -3.49
OSIP    OSI Pharmaceuticals        54.22     -3.94
AGIX    Atherogenics Inc           26.50     -4.87
HRT     Arrhythmia Research        24.88     -3.27

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

KMRT    Kmart Holding              97.72     -7.27
HSC     Harsco Corp                51.23     -1.92
CTXS    Citrix Systems             23.69     -0.88
OSK     Oshkosh Truck              62.06     -0.38
YCC     Yankee Candle              30.74     -0.31


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.








DISCLAIMER

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