PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-23-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Market Misfire Watch List: Entry points Galore! Market Sentiment: Holding Up ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 11-23-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10492.60 + 3.20 10514.99 10436.38 1.78 bln 1945/1291 NASDAQ 2084.28 - 0.91 2092.02 2068.98 2.10 bln 1740/1376 S&P 100 561.29 - 0.35 562.55 558.58 Totals 3685/2667 S&P 500 1176.94 - 0.30 1179.52 1171.41 SOX 429.71 - 3.20 436.38 426.89 RUS 2000 624.53 + 3.01 624.53 616.54 DJ TRANS 3621.08 + 11.80 3626.55 3582.60 VIX 12.67 - 0.30 12.91 12.57 VXO (VIX-O)13.08 - 0.50 13.71 12.81 VXN 18.43 - 0.34 18.97 18.35 Total Volume 4,187M Total UpVol 2,260M Total DnVol 1,855M Total Adv 4176 Total Dcl 3070 52wk Highs 512 52wk Lows 51 TRIN 1.30 NAZTRIN 0.90 PUT/CALL 0.79 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Market Misfire by Jim Brown Several times this week the markets tried to rally but sputtered and failed. The misfires all started off with a bang but could not produce enough momentum to push the Dow over 10500 for more than a few minutes. Like a rocket trying to escape the pull of gravity with only one booster each spike sputtered at the edge of resistance and fell back to earth. Unable to make a successful run with a frontal assault during cash trading hours there was a sneak attack after today's close that may prove more successful. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SPX Chart The economic reports came back to the forefront again today but it was not Chain Store Sales and National Activity Indexes that captured traders attention. It was the economics of oil that tanked the markets once again. Reportedly fears of shortages and disruptions in supply were the factors that sent crude back over $50 for most of the day. The spike back over the $50 level helped to shatter the confidence many analysts had developed suggesting the oil crisis was over. $50 oil is a red flag and the opening bounce in equities to Dow 10514 was immediately sold and we retreated back to 10450 where we stayed until oil closed for the day. I don't normally feel that the markets trade intraday in relation to each other as most reporters claim. However, today there was an exact correlation and it was striking. Compare the charts below for oil and the Dow. I don't think this correlation will continue at the same rate but the resurgence of high oil definitely elicited a knee jerk reaction from equities today. We have seen in the past that once the shock of $50 has passed the stock market tends to develop a resistance to the hourly fluctuations. Hopefully that will begin soon. On Wednesday we will get the oil inventories for the week and this bubble could be over as quickly as it began. Comparison Chart Oil/Dow Chain store sales spiked for the last week +0.8% and well over the -0.4% drop from the prior week. This should come as no surprise to anyone given the approach of the busiest shopping day of the year on Friday. I drove out of my way to a Super Wal-Mart on Sunday with my wife to shop for Thanksgiving dinner which is normally a big spread around my house. There was barely an empty space in the parking lot and a shortage of baskets at the door. It was a mad house with workers literally running to restock shelves as fast as buyers cleaned them out. I know a lot of people don't like Wal-Mart but with a line to get into the parking lot late on a Sunday night it is evident that there is no shortage of Wal-Mart shoppers. If you have not watched that CNBC special on Wal-Mart I highly recommend it just for the business methods they discuss. Business majors should be required to view it. Love them or hate them you still have to respect their methods and success. It also suggests that next weeks Chain Store Sales numbers should show huge seasonal gains before the season even gets underway. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index spiked sharply for October to +0.52 from -0.04 in September and only +0.17 in August. This number has been highly volatile over the last six months in what could be seen as serious cross currents in the economy. If this is the start of a new uptrend it definitely should get the attention of analysts. Production jumped to +0.27 from -0.10 in the prior month. 57 of the internal components contributed positively to the index while only seven contributed negatively. The three-month average at 0.22 has now indicated growth for fourteen consecutive months. The October Existing Home Sales remained flat with September at 6.75 million units. Hurricane sales continue to hold up the sales levels but there have been declines in many other regions. This decline could be seasonal, due to higher mortgage rates, held back by the elections or the prospect of higher energy prices. It is unknown which factor is the most likely but the home builders celebrated for the third day despite the regional numbers. While existing home sales are not directly related to the home building stocks it appears prosperity in one sector suggests continued prosperity in the other. One factor helping the builders was a drop in existing home inventory to only a 4.3 months supply and near a record low. As existing homes dwindle those shoppers may be pushed into the new home market. Stronger job growth should be a driving force to keep these trends in force. Despite the best wishes of most investors the chip sector just can't get a break and continues to drag on the broader tech sector. The SOX has struggled for two days to recover from the Friday beating but has not been able to find a bid. Today Intel was cut by CSFB who lowered their price target to $22 from $25. Intel had reached a three-month high of $24.81 last Thursday but has declined to $23.39 at today's close. According to CSFB, AMD is becoming a growing threat with the product gap merging and in some cases closed. The competitive edge is going to AMD where cost is -40% to -60% less than the Intel product. AMD has gone from $11 to $22 in the last three months and several analysts think the underdog could move even higher. The real problem with the chip sector according to analysts is the increasing capacity coming online and the inventory glut now. CSFB said there would be another 30% of capacity added by Intel over the next year and there is no demand for that capacity. This will eventually drive prices lower and impact margins with Intel being the most at risk for price. According to Merrill Lynch and the Gartner Group the demand for PCs in the consumer sector will drop in 2005 to less than 9% growth compared to 12% in 2004. The SOX fell on the Intel downgrade to close at 430 and well off the 445 highs from last week. After the close today ADI reported earnings that were inline with estimates at 34 cents but their outlook was less than exciting. They warned that the current quarter could be less than expected. High inventory levels were again the culprit but there is hope ahead. Order volatility is stabilizing and the excess inventory is expected to work its way out of the system by the end of the first quarter according to ADI. On the bright side TECD announced earnings at 64 cents that blew away estimates of 55 cents and raised their estimates for Q4 to well over current analyst forecasts. The stock jumped +2.30 in after hours trading. The company distributes high tech products and software around the world and had revenue of $4.8B for the quarter. Google was the beneficiary of new coverage by Goldman Sachs at an outperform and a price target of $215. The stock surged +$10 in after hours as shorts got their weekly beating. Goldman looked into their crystal ball and projected 25% earnings growth through 2009 base on global secular growth. That prediction could be very difficult to match since Google has warned twice in the last two weeks that earnings will slow. SIRI continued to move to a higher orbit since the addition of Mel Karmazan as CEO. The stock has soared from $4.75 to $6.75 in three days and traded 421 million shares on Tuesday. This was a new Nasdaq record for single share volume. Eventually this high flyer will come back to earth but it may not be soon. With only 800,000 subscribers and nearly $5 billion in debt the outcome is probably an acquisition by somebody like Viacom. Winning the war over XMSR may not occur in our lifetime but it won't be due to a lack of trying by SIRI. Despite the listless markets money continues to flow into funds with $4.5B in inflows for the week ended on Monday according to TrimTabs.com. They also estimate that more than $12B has come into the market so far in November. They are now tracking exchange traded funds and reported that the new GLD fund had seen inflows of $1.3B in the last three days. I know the question on your mind is not will Google move higher or SIRI plummet back to earth. Inquiring minds want to know what happened to the market and will there be a Thanksgiving rally. I can answer the rally portion of that question with 100% confidence and I will do so in the Sunday newsletter. Everybody knows hindsight is always 20:20. The weakness in the markets this week is being attributed to tax selling by funds. I know it seems earlier than usual but that is because it is still November. You probably thought you forgot to tear that page off the calendar when I said tax sales. Seriously, I mentioned last weekend that the January effect had moved into December and that tax sales over the last several years had moved into the early days of December. If market analysts are right this week those sales have moved in front of Thanksgiving this year for one specific reason. The Microsoft dividend is due out next week and professional money managers are expecting a surge in liquidity that will float the markets for up to two weeks. Nobody wants to be selling then. They want to get the sales out of the way early and finish their new position entry before those funds hit the market. That positioning has created some serious volatility over the last three days that has been mostly program related. With the normal Thanksgiving trend being "buy Tuesday's close and sell on Monday" the selling should be behind us. The Dow touched 10600 last Wednesday and was promptly sold. The Greenspan event last Friday gave funds another reason to accelerate their dumping and the three bounces to 10500 this week were also sell triggers. During this volatility one thing remained firm. Support at 10450 emerged and became even stronger as Tuesday trading began to wind down. The underlying bid began to aggressively rise and we saw a rally at the close that took the Dow futures back over 10500. The Nasdaq has been struggling as well but did manage to post a higher low at 2070 today. With the exception of that higher low the chart for the last two weeks looks like a mirror image of the SOX. However, like the Dow there was concentrated buying in the futures after the close and we should see a pop back over 2090 at the open. The SPX also posted a higher low late in the afternoon with a close at 1177. The S&P futures ran up to 1180.50 after the bell and also suggest a higher open. The most bullish index was the Russell and that is the one that telegraphs the action of mutual funds. The Russell moved to a four day high just before the close at 623.50 and appeared ready to retest the 627 all time high from last week. After the close the Russell futures soared to 626.50 and also suggest the Russell will open higher tomorrow. Are you starting to see a common scenario developing here? Russell Chart Wilshire-5000 Chart Personally I believe the artificial pumping of the futures contracts after the close was an attempt to send the averages higher at the open and hopefully trigger some short covering on a low volume day. If they can get the markets going sharply higher at the bell then traders may believe the Thanksgiving rally is breaking out and jump on the train. This could be a cleverly disguised market manipulation scheme by big money to create a rally where none existed to either benefit from current longs already entered or to send the market higher over the holiday and give them a higher exit level on Monday. Personally I still believe it was the former as the latter leaves them in cash but at a higher level with stocks artificially higher in price. It makes more sense that they have already dumped the losers and used the dips to start new positions they now want to send higher. Wednesday has a flood of economic reports but none are expected to be market movers. Wednesday is a sentiment day where low volume tends to be bullish and there are few professional traders left in the office to try and sell into the rallies. Monday is the risky day once everyone comes back into the office to see what changes they still need to make before the Microsoft billions hits the market. Technically Dec 2nd is the pay date but I would not expect a sudden flagpole rally on that day. The money has to be disseminated and received by fund managers before they can spend it. The following Monday Dec-6th is the likely date for money flow to begin hitting the market. However, just because those are the critical dates it does not mean funds will not be jockeying for position as early as tomorrow in hopes of getting a pole position for that liquidity rally. I have to emphasize that all of this is just speculation and anything is possible. We never know what forces are at work behind the scenes and how much money is moving into or out of position or why. What we do know is the next three weeks could be an exciting time in the market and hopefully a profitable event. I plan on remaining long over SPX 1175 and suggest you do the same. This gives us a red light, green light traffic signal for the coming week. Decisions are simpler when made in advance and not in the heat of battle. Mine are made, are yours? If you have not seen the end of year renewal special we announced on Sunday please be sure to check it out tonight. Buy the dips until the trend changes. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Norfolk Southern - NSC - close: 34.04 change: +0.10 WHAT TO WATCH: NSC has been consistently bouncing from its simple 40-dma for months. Shares look overbought but they recently bounced from the 40-dma again. This could be an entry point for bullish positions. We would look for some confirmation and use a relatively tight stop. --- Red Robin Gourmet Burger - RRGB - close: 51.25 change: +2.89 WHAT TO WATCH: We were unable to find any news to account for today's impressive six percent gain other than a press release that said RRGB opened its 250th restaurant. Bulls can be impressed by today's breakout over round-number, psychological resistance at $50.00 after consolidating sideways for the past week. This could be a high-risk play with new positions at current levels and a stop loss under $48.00. --- American Financial Group - AFG - close: 31.89 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: This looks like a very tempting entry point for bullish positions. Shares of AFG broke through very long-term and very tough resistance at the $31.00 level earlier this month. Now the stock has produced a very normal consolidation and is bouncing from then resistance now new support at $31.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target. We would target the $36-38 region with a stop under $31.00. --- Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 51.00 change: +1.94 WHAT TO WATCH: BG is on the move again after three weeks of consolidating its October gains. Today's breakout over round- number, psychological resistance at $50.00 was fueled by very strong volume. This looks like a bullish entry point for a run toward the $55 level and beyond. Consider a stop loss under $48.00. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- BRP $36.56 +1.85 - BRP continues to rally and today's 5.3% gain pushes the stock through major resistance at the $35.00 level. KNGT $24.02 +0.21 - KNGT is not a very volatile stock but shares have been consistently channeling higher for months now. KNGHT just bounced from the bottom of its channel. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Holding Up - J. Brown Overall investors can feel pretty cheerful. The markets are holding up better than expected. I was looking for a dip this week to give us a good set up into the traditional Christmas rally. Unfortunately, it seems that there are so many investors looking to buy the dip that any pull back is going to have to fight to become more than a blip on the way up. At least that's what the bull inside of me wants to say. The bear inside of me continues to growl and point at all the stocks and indices that remain overbought, extended and due for a real consolidation all while the volatility indices trade near multi-year lows. There was a lot of talk today about the traditional Thanksgiving trade. What is the Thanksgiving trade? Historically the markets tend to be bullish the day before and the (half) day after the Thanksgiving holiday at least they were. This pattern was very consistent for years and years. The problem now is that it has become over publicized and the pattern has broken down over the past several years into more of a 50/50 toss up. Given how over- extended stocks are I'd still give it a 50/50 toss up but if I was forced to bet I might bet on the bulls. It's important to note that we'll start to see holiday trading volume the rest of this week as most of Wall Street's professionals head out early for Thanksgiving here in the states. Normally light trading volumes can exaggerate moves, especially in low volume stocks. Tomorrow brings several economic reports like the weekly initial jobless claims, the Durable goods orders for October, the revised Michigan sentiment number for November, the new home sales figures and the help wanted index. None are really expected to have an impact on trading. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9585 Current : 10492 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10499 50-dma: 10168 200-dma: 10244 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1188 52-week Low : 1031 Current : 1176 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1176 50-dma: 1134 200-dma: 1121 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1581 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1562 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1556 50-dma: 1471 200-dma: 1440 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.67 -0.30 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 13.08 -0.50 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 18.43 -0.34 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.79 856,931 678,770 Equity Only 0.66 731,115 484,224 OEX 1.08 30,649 33,156 QQQ 1.66 44,470 73,937 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 73.0 + 0.5 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 75.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 66.6 + 3.3 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 73.0 + 0.2 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 72.0 + 2 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.03 10-dma: 1.07 21-dma: 0.96 55-dma: 1.12 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1708 1673 Decliners 1110 1319 New Highs 233 136 New Lows 11 19 Up Volume 970M 1144M Down Vol. 778M 876M Total Vol. 1782M 2048M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/16/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 For the first time in weeks the commercials are making a move. They upped their short positions days before the recent decline. Meanwhile small traders remain marginally net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/26/04 441,263 445,992 ( 4,729) (0.4%) 11/02/04 446,192 441,676 ( 4,516) (0.4%) 11/09/04 447,779 449,171 ( 1,392) (0.1%) 11/16/04 452,149 468,048 (15,899) (1.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 138,201 121,275 16,926 6.5% 11/02/04 136,290 132,040 4,250 1.5% 11/09/04 148,415 136,325 12,090 4.2% 11/16/04 166,862 156,751 10,111 3.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials traders also piled on the shorts in the e-minis to produce the most bearish reading in weeks. Small traders also put more money to work but remained strongly net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/26/04 276,128 509,552 (233,424) (29.7%) 11/02/04 307,053 580,081 (273,028) (30.7%) 11/09/04 337,164 672,903 (335,739) (33.2%) 11/16/04 371,282 796,279 (424,997) (36.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 345,908 64,061 281,847 68.7% 11/02/04 395,029 63,746 331,283 72.2% 11/09/04 392,253 58,999 333,254 73.8% 11/16/04 445,737 70,169 375,568 72.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercials added to both their longs and their shorts but saw no change in their bullish bias for the NDX. Small traders pared back some of their shorts but remained strong net bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 53,233 31,323 21,910 26.2% 11/02/04 53,002 31,231 21,771 25.0% 11/09/04 54,509 33,016 21,493 24.5% 11/16/04 55,737 33,683 22,054 24.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 10,521 25,388 (14,867) (42.8%) 11/02/04 8,886 36,621 (27,735) (61.3%) 11/09/04 10,213 38,251 (28,038) (57.8%) 11/16/04 10,533 37,660 (27,127) (56.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (28,038) - 11/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Given the latest data as of 11/16/04 it looks like commercials were beginning to bet on a pull back. There was a reduction in longs and an increase in shorts to create the first bearish reading in weeks. Small traders also increased their bearish bias. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 25,707 24,855 852 1.6% 11/02/04 25,319 24,261 1,058 2.0% 11/09/04 22,863 22,463 400 0.8% 11/16/04 22,004 23,744 (1,740) (3.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/26/04 8,405 6,336 2,069 14.3% 11/02/04 7,952 6,306 1,261 8.8% 11/09/04 6,165 6,483 ( 318) ( 2.5%) 11/16/04 5,937 6,533 ( 596) ( 4.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-23-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: ASKJ, OMM, PCU, ZEUS, CVX, DNR, TSCO Stock Splits Announcements: BEBE, CMC, WIBC, NBAN Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== ASKJ - tech stock short - JPMorgan upgraded ASKJ to an "over weight" this morning and shares added 3.5 percent on heavy volume but the stock traded down from its morning highs closing under the $25.00 level. This may be a new failed-rally entry point but we'd watch for some confirmation before initiating new plays. OMM - non-tech long - OMM added another 2.39 percent on decent volume to break out over round-number, psychological resistance at the $20.00 mark. PCU - non-tech long - We are growing concerned over the lack of strength in PCU. It may be time to plan an early exit. If shares fail to rebound soon we'll close it. ZEUS - non-tech long - The lack of strength in ZEUS is also discouraging. Shares are drifting lower under a trend of lower highs. If we don't see a bounce soon we'll close it. CVX - non-tech long - CVX did manage to trade over resistance at the $55.00 level earlier this morning but couldn't hold it. The stock hit $55.08. We remain untriggered as we wait for CVX to hit $55.15. DNR - non-tech long - Oil stock DNR turned in a strong rally with a 4.18 percent gain on rising volume. This is very bullish. Shares hit our trigger and entry point at $27.51 this morning. TSCO - non-tech short - We are very encouraged by TSCO's weakness even as investor interest turns toward the retailers as the holiday shopping season nears. This Friday is "Black Friday" one of the busiest shopping days of the year yet there doesn't appear to be any confidence in TSCO. The stock is down another 3.13 percent on very heavy volume. Remember, that our target is the $31-30 region but readers can feel free to do some profit taking whenever they feel is appropriate. We are going to lower our stop loss to $35.49. ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- BEBE fashions a 3-for-2 stock split Late Monday evening bebe stores, inc. (NASDAQ:BEBE) announced a 3- for-2 stock split and a quarterly cash dividend. According to the company's press release each share of the company's common stock will be split into 1.5 shares of common stock. Fractional shares resulting from the split will be paid in cash by the company. The payable date for the stock split is December 29th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of December 10th. The quarterly cash dividend of 5 cents per share will be paid on a pre-split basis on December 30th to shareholders on record as of December 10th. About the company: bebe stores, inc. designs, develops and produces a distinctive line of contemporary women's apparel and accessories, which it markets under the bebe, bebe O, and BEBE SPORT brand names. bebe currently operates 206 stores, of which 179 are bebe stores and 27 are BEBE SPORT stores. These stores are located in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada. (source: company press release) -- CMC recycles a 2-for-1 stock split Monday morning before the stock market's opening bell the Commercial Metals Co (NYSE:CMC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The stock split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend payable on January 10th, 2005 to shareholders on record as of December 13th. About the company: Commercial Metals Company and subsidiaries manufacture, recycle and market steel and metal products, related materials and services through a network including steel minimills, steel fabrication and processing plants, construction-related product warehouses, a copper tube mill, metal recycling facilities and marketing and distribution offices in the United States and in strategic overseas markets. (source: company press release) -- WIBC announces a 2-for-1 stock split Monday morning before the market's opening bell the Wilshire Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:WIBC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split will take effect in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend payable on December 14th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of December 3rd. About the company: Headquartered in Los Angeles, Wilshire Bancorp is the parent company of Wilshire State Bank, which has 14 branch offices in California and Texas, and five Loan Production Offices in San Jose, Seattle, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Las Vegas. The bank is an SBA preferred lender at all of its office locations, excluding the newest LPOs in San Antonio and Las Vegas. Wilshire State Bank is a community bank with a focus on commercial real estate lending and general commercial banking, with its primary market encompassing the multi-ethnic populations of the Los Angeles Metropolitan area. The bank's strategic goals include increasing shareholder and franchise value by continuing to grow its multi-ethnic banking business and expanding its geographic reach to other similar markets with strong levels of small business activity. (source: company press release) -- NBAN announces a 3-for-2 stock split Tuesday afternoon the North Bay Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBAN) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares. The split will take the form of a 50 percent stock dividend payable on December 16th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of December 6th. About the company: North Bay Bancorp is the parent company of The Vintage Bank based in Napa County and Solano Bank based in Solano County, both full service commercial banks offering a wide selection of deposit, loan and investment services to local consumers and small business customers. The Vintage Bank, opened in 1985, operates six banking offices in Napa County, Northern California's number one tourist destination and the nation's premier wine producing region. The Bank's main office and two branch offices are located in the City of Napa. Vintage also has branches in the City of St. Helena, American Canyon and the Southern industrial area of Napa County as well as an off-site ATM facility in Yountville. Solano Bank, opened in July 2000, operates offices in the primary cities along the I-80 corridor of Solano County. The Bank's main office is located in Vacaville, with branches in Fairfield, Vallejo and Benicia and an off-site ATM facility in downtown Fairfield. This region, projected to be the fastest growing county in Northern California through year 2020, is attracting businesses and residents with a quality lifestyle, affordable housing and business-friendly attitudes. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PTR PetroChina 56.60 +0.80 AIG American Intl Group 64.20 +1.35 MCD McDonald's Corp 30.10 +0.72 PRU Prudential Financial 49.13 +1.04 EXC Exelon Corp 42.64 +0.57 STI Suntrust Banks 71.68 +0.72 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- RRC Range Resources 19.91 +2.32 CBST Cubist Pharmaceuticals 12.44 +1.01 GTOP Genitope Corp 14.87 +1.13 REDF Rediff.com Inda Ltd 10.29 +1.41 PCNTF Pacific Internet Ltd 7.43 +1.26 BOOM Dynamic Materials 15.43 +1.76 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- BNN Brascan Corp 39.77 +1.51 XMSR XM Satellite Radio 36.66 +1.94 NCR NCR Corp 59.15 +1.78 BG Bunge Ltd 51.00 +1.94 UPL Ultra Petroleum 52.62 +1.12 FLR Fluor Corp 51.85 +3.34 PDS Precision Drilling 64.45 +2.24 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MBT Mobile Telesys 134.99 -8.38 CLX Clorox 55.05 -1.36 DY Dycom Industries 29.80 -4.84 TSCO Tractor Supply Co 32.45 -1.05 CNCT Connetics 26.35 -1.64 DIOD Diodes Inc 24.71 -1.15 NVEC NVE Corp 30.90 -5.36 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- ESRX Express Scripts 72.25 -3.10 INTC Intel Corp 23.37 -0.73 GE General Electric 35.81 -0.28 SMG Scotts Co 67.40 -0.53 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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