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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/23/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-23-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Market Misfire
Watch List:        Entry points Galore!
Market Sentiment:  Holding Up

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      11-23-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10492.60 +  3.20 10514.99 10436.38 1.78 bln 1945/1291
NASDAQ   2084.28 -  0.91  2092.02  2068.98 2.10 bln 1740/1376
S&P 100   561.29 -  0.35   562.55   558.58   Totals 3685/2667
S&P 500  1176.94 -  0.30  1179.52  1171.41 
SOX       429.71 -  3.20   436.38   426.89
RUS 2000  624.53 +  3.01   624.53   616.54
DJ TRANS 3621.08 + 11.80  3626.55  3582.60
VIX        12.67 -  0.30    12.91    12.57
VXO (VIX-O)13.08 -  0.50    13.71    12.81
VXN        18.43 -  0.34    18.97    18.35 
Total Volume 4,187M
Total UpVol  2,260M
Total DnVol  1,855M
Total Adv  4176
Total Dcl  3070
52wk Highs  512
52wk Lows    51
TRIN       1.30
NAZTRIN    0.90
PUT/CALL   0.79
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Market Misfire
by Jim Brown

Several times this week the markets tried to rally but
sputtered and failed. The misfires all started off with
a bang but could not produce enough momentum to push the
Dow over 10500 for more than a few minutes. Like a rocket
trying to escape the pull of gravity with only one booster
each spike sputtered at the edge of resistance and fell
back to earth. Unable to make a successful run with a
frontal assault during cash trading hours there was a
sneak attack after today's close that may prove more
successful. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 

The economic reports came back to the forefront again
today but it was not Chain Store Sales and National
Activity Indexes that captured traders attention. It
was the economics of oil that tanked the markets once
again. Reportedly fears of shortages and disruptions
in supply were the factors that sent crude back over
$50 for most of the day. The spike back over the $50
level helped to shatter the confidence many analysts
had developed suggesting the oil crisis was over. $50
oil is a red flag and the opening bounce in equities 
to Dow 10514 was immediately sold and we retreated 
back to 10450 where we stayed until oil closed for
the day. 

I don't normally feel that the markets trade intraday
in relation to each other as most reporters claim. 
However, today there was an exact correlation and it
was striking. Compare the charts below for oil and the
Dow. I don't think this correlation will continue at
the same rate but the resurgence of high oil definitely
elicited a knee jerk reaction from equities today. We
have seen in the past that once the shock of $50 has
passed the stock market tends to develop a resistance
to the hourly fluctuations. Hopefully that will begin
soon. On Wednesday we will get the oil inventories for
the week and this bubble could be over as quickly as
it began.  

Comparison Chart Oil/Dow

 
 

Chain store sales spiked for the last week +0.8% and
well over the -0.4% drop from the prior week. This 
should come as no surprise to anyone given the approach
of the busiest shopping day of the year on Friday. I 
drove out of my way to a Super Wal-Mart on Sunday 
with my wife to shop for Thanksgiving dinner which
is normally a big spread around my house. There was
barely an empty space in the parking lot and a shortage
of baskets at the door. It was a mad house with workers
literally running to restock shelves as fast as buyers
cleaned them out. I know a lot of people don't like
Wal-Mart but with a line to get into the parking lot
late on a Sunday night it is evident that there is
no shortage of Wal-Mart shoppers. If you have not 
watched that CNBC special on Wal-Mart I highly 
recommend it just for the business methods they 
discuss. Business majors should be required to view
it. Love them or hate them you still have to respect
their methods and success. It also suggests that next
weeks Chain Store Sales numbers should show huge 
seasonal gains before the season even gets underway.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index spiked sharply
for October to +0.52 from -0.04 in September and only
+0.17 in August. This number has been highly volatile
over the last six months in what could be seen as 
serious cross currents in the economy. If this is the
start of a new uptrend it definitely should get the
attention of analysts. Production jumped to +0.27
from -0.10 in the prior month. 57 of the internal
components contributed positively to the index while
only seven contributed negatively. The three-month
average at 0.22 has now indicated growth for fourteen
consecutive months. 

The October Existing Home Sales remained flat with 
September at 6.75 million units. Hurricane sales
continue to hold up the sales levels but there have
been declines in many other regions. This decline
could be seasonal, due to higher mortgage rates, held
back by the elections or the prospect of higher energy
prices. It is unknown which factor is the most likely
but the home builders celebrated for the third day
despite the regional numbers. While existing home sales
are not directly related to the home building stocks 
it appears prosperity in one sector suggests continued 
prosperity in the other. One factor helping the 
builders was a drop in existing home inventory to 
only a 4.3 months supply and near a record low. As 
existing homes dwindle those shoppers may be pushed
into the new home market. Stronger job growth should
be a driving force to keep these trends in force. 

Despite the best wishes of most investors the chip
sector just can't get a break and continues to drag
on the broader tech sector. The SOX has struggled 
for two days to recover from the Friday beating but
has not been able to find a bid. Today Intel was cut
by CSFB who lowered their price target to $22 from $25.
Intel had reached a three-month high of $24.81 last
Thursday but has declined to $23.39 at today's close.
According to CSFB, AMD is becoming a growing threat
with the product gap merging and in some cases closed.
The competitive edge is going to AMD where cost is -40%
to -60% less than the Intel product. AMD has gone from
$11 to $22 in the last three months and several analysts
think the underdog could move even higher. The real
problem with the chip sector according to analysts
is the increasing capacity coming online and the
inventory glut now. CSFB said there would be another
30% of capacity added by Intel over the next year
and there is no demand for that capacity. This will
eventually drive prices lower and impact margins with
Intel being the most at risk for price. According to 
Merrill Lynch and the Gartner Group the demand for
PCs in the consumer sector will drop in 2005 to less
than 9% growth compared to 12% in 2004. The SOX fell 
on the Intel downgrade to close at 430 and well off 
the 445 highs from last week. 

After the close today ADI reported earnings that were
inline with estimates at 34 cents but their outlook 
was less than exciting. They warned that the current
quarter could be less than expected. High inventory
levels were again the culprit but there is hope ahead.
Order volatility is stabilizing and the excess inventory
is expected to work its way out of the system by the
end of the first quarter according to ADI. 

On the bright side TECD announced earnings at 64 cents
that blew away estimates of 55 cents and raised their
estimates for Q4 to well over current analyst forecasts.
The stock jumped +2.30 in after hours trading. The 
company distributes high tech products and software
around the world and had revenue of $4.8B for the
quarter. 

Google was the beneficiary of new coverage by Goldman
Sachs at an outperform and a price target of $215.
The stock surged +$10 in after hours as shorts got
their weekly beating. Goldman looked into their crystal
ball and projected 25% earnings growth through 2009
base on global secular growth. That prediction could
be very difficult to match since Google has warned
twice in the last two weeks that earnings will slow.

SIRI continued to move to a higher orbit since the
addition of Mel Karmazan as CEO. The stock has soared
from $4.75 to $6.75 in three days and traded 421 million
shares on Tuesday. This was a new Nasdaq record for 
single share volume. Eventually this high flyer will
come back to earth but it may not be soon. With only
800,000 subscribers and nearly $5 billion in debt the
outcome is probably an acquisition by somebody like
Viacom. Winning the war over XMSR may not occur in 
our lifetime but it won't be due to a lack of trying
by SIRI. 

Despite the listless markets money continues to flow
into funds with $4.5B in inflows for the week ended on
Monday according to TrimTabs.com. They also estimate
that more than $12B has come into the market so far
in November. They are now tracking exchange traded
funds and reported that the new GLD fund had seen
inflows of $1.3B in the last three days. 

I know the question on your mind is not will Google
move higher or SIRI plummet back to earth. Inquiring
minds want to know what happened to the market and
will there be a Thanksgiving rally. I can answer the
rally portion of that question with 100% confidence
and I will do so in the Sunday newsletter. Everybody
knows hindsight is always 20:20. 

The weakness in the markets this week is being attributed
to tax selling by funds. I know it seems earlier than
usual but that is because it is still November. You 
probably thought you forgot to tear that page off the
calendar when I said tax sales. Seriously, I mentioned
last weekend that the January effect had moved into 
December and that tax sales over the last several years
had moved into the early days of December. If market
analysts are right this week those sales have moved 
in front of Thanksgiving this year for one specific
reason. The Microsoft dividend is due out next week
and professional money managers are expecting a surge
in liquidity that will float the markets for up to two
weeks. Nobody wants to be selling then. They want to 
get the sales out of the way early and finish their
new position entry before those funds hit the market.

That positioning has created some serious volatility
over the last three days that has been mostly program
related. With the normal Thanksgiving trend being "buy
Tuesday's close and sell on Monday" the selling should
be behind us. The Dow touched 10600 last Wednesday and
was promptly sold. The Greenspan event last Friday gave
funds another reason to accelerate their dumping and 
the three bounces to 10500 this week were also sell
triggers. During this volatility one thing remained
firm. Support at 10450 emerged and became even stronger
as Tuesday trading began to wind down. The underlying
bid began to aggressively rise and we saw a rally at
the close that took the Dow futures back over 10500. 

The Nasdaq has been struggling as well but did manage 
to post a higher low at 2070 today. With the exception
of that higher low the chart for the last two weeks 
looks like a mirror image of the SOX. However, like 
the Dow there was concentrated buying in the futures
after the close and we should see a pop back over 2090
at the open. 

The SPX also posted a higher low late in the afternoon
with a close at 1177. The S&P futures ran up to 1180.50
after the bell and also suggest a higher open. The most
bullish index was the Russell and that is the one that
telegraphs the action of mutual funds. The Russell 
moved to a four day high just before the close at 
623.50 and appeared ready to retest the 627 all time
high from last week. After the close the Russell futures
soared to 626.50 and also suggest the Russell will open
higher tomorrow. Are you starting to see a common 
scenario developing here?

Russell Chart

 
Wilshire-5000 Chart

 


Personally I believe the artificial pumping of the
futures contracts after the close was an attempt to
send the averages higher at the open and hopefully
trigger some short covering on a low volume day. If
they can get the markets going sharply higher at the
bell then traders may believe the Thanksgiving rally
is breaking out and jump on the train. This could be
a cleverly disguised market manipulation scheme by 
big money to create a rally where none existed to
either benefit from current longs already entered or
to send the market higher over the holiday and give
them a higher exit level on Monday. Personally I still
believe it was the former as the latter leaves them in
cash but at a higher level with stocks artificially 
higher in price. It makes more sense that they have
already dumped the losers and used the dips to start
new positions they now want to send higher. 

Wednesday has a flood of economic reports but none 
are expected to be market movers. Wednesday is a
sentiment day where low volume tends to be bullish
and there are few professional traders left in the
office to try and sell into the rallies. Monday is
the risky day once everyone comes back into the office
to see what changes they still need to make before the
Microsoft billions hits the market. Technically Dec
2nd is the pay date but I would not expect a sudden
flagpole rally on that day. The money has to be
disseminated and received by fund managers before
they can spend it. The following Monday Dec-6th is
the likely date for money flow to begin hitting the
market. However, just because those are the critical
dates it does not mean funds will not be jockeying for
position as early as tomorrow in hopes of getting a
pole position for that liquidity rally.
 
I have to emphasize that all of this is just speculation
and anything is possible. We never know what forces are
at work behind the scenes and how much money is moving
into or out of position or why. What we do know is the
next three weeks could be an exciting time in the market
and hopefully a profitable event. I plan on remaining
long over SPX 1175 and suggest you do the same. This
gives us a red light, green light traffic signal for
the coming week. Decisions are simpler when made in
advance and not in the heat of battle. Mine are made,
are yours?

If you have not seen the end of year renewal special
we announced on Sunday please be sure to check it out
tonight. 

Buy the dips until the trend changes. 

Jim Brown
Editor

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Norfolk Southern - NSC - close: 34.04 change: +0.10 

WHAT TO WATCH: NSC has been consistently bouncing from its simple 
40-dma for months.  Shares look overbought but they recently 
bounced from the 40-dma again.  This could be an entry point for 
bullish positions.  We would look for some confirmation and use a 
relatively tight stop.




---

Red Robin Gourmet Burger - RRGB - close: 51.25 change: +2.89

WHAT TO WATCH: We were unable to find any news to account for 
today's impressive six percent gain other than a press release 
that said RRGB opened its 250th restaurant.  Bulls can be 
impressed by today's breakout over round-number, psychological 
resistance at $50.00 after consolidating sideways for the past 
week.  This could be a high-risk play with new positions at 
current levels and a stop loss under $48.00.  




---

American Financial Group - AFG - close: 31.89 change: +0.51

WHAT TO WATCH: This looks like a very tempting entry point for 
bullish positions.  Shares of AFG broke through very long-term 
and very tough resistance at the $31.00 level earlier this month.  
Now the stock has produced a very normal consolidation and is 
bouncing from then resistance now new support at $31.00.  The P&F 
chart is bullish with a $57 target.  We would target the $36-38 
region with a stop under $31.00.




---

Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 51.00 change: +1.94 

WHAT TO WATCH: BG is on the move again after three weeks of 
consolidating its October gains.  Today's breakout over round-
number, psychological resistance at $50.00 was fueled by very 
strong volume.  This looks like a bullish entry point for a run 
toward the $55 level and beyond.  Consider a stop loss under 
$48.00.




-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

BRP $36.56 +1.85 - BRP continues to rally and today's 5.3% gain 
pushes the stock through major resistance at the $35.00 level.

KNGT $24.02 +0.21 - KNGT is not a very volatile stock but shares 
have been consistently channeling higher for months now.  KNGHT 
just bounced from the bottom of its channel.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Holding Up
- J. Brown

Overall investors can feel pretty cheerful.  The markets are 
holding up better than expected.  I was looking for a dip this 
week to give us a good set up into the traditional Christmas 
rally.  Unfortunately, it seems that there are so many investors 
looking to buy the dip that any pull back is going to have to 
fight to become more than a blip on the way up.  At least that's 
what the bull inside of me wants to say.  The bear inside of me 
continues to growl and point at all the stocks and indices that 
remain overbought, extended and due for a real consolidation all 
while the volatility indices trade near multi-year lows.  

There was a lot of talk today about the traditional Thanksgiving 
trade.  What is the Thanksgiving trade?  Historically the markets 
tend to be bullish the day before and the (half) day after the 
Thanksgiving holiday at least they were.  This pattern was very 
consistent for years and years.  The problem now is that it has 
become over publicized and the pattern has broken down over the 
past several years into more of a 50/50 toss up.  Given how over-
extended stocks are I'd still give it a 50/50 toss up but if I 
was forced to bet I might bet on the bulls.  

It's important to note that we'll start to see holiday trading 
volume the rest of this week as most of Wall Street's 
professionals head out early for Thanksgiving here in the states.  
Normally light trading volumes can exaggerate moves, especially 
in low volume stocks.  

Tomorrow brings several economic reports like the weekly initial 
jobless claims, the Durable goods orders for October, the revised 
Michigan sentiment number for November, the new home sales 
figures and the help wanted index.  None are really expected to 
have an impact on trading.  


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10492

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10499
 50-dma: 10168 
200-dma: 10244 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1176

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1176
 50-dma: 1134
200-dma: 1121



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1562

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1556
 50-dma: 1471
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.67 -0.30
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.08 -0.50
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 18.43 -0.34 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.79        856,931       678,770
Equity Only    0.66        731,115       484,224
OEX            1.08         30,649        33,156
QQQ            1.66         44,470        73,937


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.0    + 0.5   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    75.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.6    + 3.3   Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       73.0    + 0.2   Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       72.0    + 2     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.03
10-dma: 1.07
21-dma: 0.96
55-dma: 1.12


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1708      1673
Decliners    1110      1319

New Highs     233       136
New Lows       11        19

Up Volume    970M     1144M
Down Vol.    778M      876M

Total Vol.  1782M     2048M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/16/04


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

For the first time in weeks the commercials are making a move.  
They upped their short positions days before the recent decline.
Meanwhile small traders remain marginally net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.4%)
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials traders also piled on the shorts in the e-minis
to produce the most bearish reading in weeks.  Small traders
also put more money to work but remained strongly net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercials added to both their longs and their shorts but
saw no change in their bullish bias for the NDX.  Small traders
pared back some of their shorts but remained strong net bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (28,038) - 11/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Given the latest data as of 11/16/04 it looks like commercials
were beginning to bet on a pull back.  There was a reduction
in longs and an increase in shorts to create the first bearish
reading in weeks.  Small traders also increased their bearish
bias.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-23-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments: ASKJ, OMM, PCU, ZEUS, CVX, DNR, TSCO

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       BEBE, CMC, WIBC, NBAN 

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

ASKJ - tech stock short -
  JPMorgan upgraded ASKJ to an "over weight" this morning
  and shares added 3.5 percent on heavy volume but the stock
  traded down from its morning highs closing under the $25.00
  level.  This may be a new failed-rally entry point but we'd 
  watch for some confirmation before initiating new plays.
 
 
OMM - non-tech long -
  OMM added another 2.39 percent on decent volume to break
  out over round-number, psychological resistance at the $20.00
  mark.  
 
 PCU - non-tech long -
  We are growing concerned over the lack of strength in
  PCU.  It may be time to plan an early exit.  If shares fail
  to rebound soon we'll close it.
 
ZEUS - non-tech long -
  The lack of strength in ZEUS is also discouraging.  Shares
  are drifting lower under a trend of lower highs.  If we don't
  see a bounce soon we'll close it.  
 
CVX - non-tech long -
  CVX did manage to trade over resistance at the $55.00 level
  earlier this morning but couldn't hold it.  The stock hit $55.08.
  We remain untriggered as we wait for CVX to hit $55.15.  
 
 
DNR - non-tech long -
  Oil stock DNR turned in a strong rally with a 4.18 percent 
  gain on rising volume.  This is very bullish.  Shares hit our
  trigger and entry point at $27.51 this morning.  
 
 
TSCO - non-tech short -
  We are very encouraged by TSCO's weakness even as investor
  interest turns toward the retailers as the holiday shopping season
  nears.  This Friday is "Black Friday" one of the busiest shopping
  days of the year yet there doesn't appear to be any confidence
  in TSCO.  The stock is down another 3.13 percent on very heavy
  volume.   Remember, that our target is the $31-30 region but
  readers can feel free to do some profit taking whenever they feel
   is appropriate.  We are going to lower our stop loss to $35.49.

==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

BEBE fashions a 3-for-2 stock split

Late Monday evening bebe stores, inc. (NASDAQ:BEBE) announced a 3-
for-2 stock split and a quarterly cash dividend.  

According to the company's press release each share of the 
company's common stock will be split into 1.5 shares of common 
stock.  Fractional shares resulting from the split will be paid in 
cash by the company.  The payable date for the stock split is 
December 29th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of December 10th.

The quarterly cash dividend of 5 cents per share will be paid on a 
pre-split basis on December 30th to shareholders on record as of 
December 10th.

About the company:
bebe stores, inc. designs, develops and produces a distinctive 
line of contemporary women's apparel and accessories, which it 
markets under the bebe, bebe O, and BEBE SPORT brand names. bebe 
currently operates 206 stores, of which 179 are bebe stores and 27 
are BEBE SPORT stores. These stores are located in the United 
States, Puerto Rico, and Canada. (source: company press release)

--

CMC recycles a 2-for-1 stock split

Monday morning before the stock market's opening bell the 
Commercial Metals Co (NYSE:CMC) announced that its Board of 
Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares.

The stock split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend 
payable on January 10th, 2005 to shareholders on record as of 
December 13th.

About the company:
Commercial Metals Company and subsidiaries manufacture, recycle 
and market steel and metal products, related materials and 
services through a network including steel minimills, steel 
fabrication and processing plants, construction-related product 
warehouses, a copper tube mill, metal recycling facilities and 
marketing and distribution offices in the United States and in 
strategic overseas markets. (source: company press release)

--

WIBC announces a 2-for-1 stock split

Monday morning before the market's opening bell the Wilshire 
Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:WIBC) announced that its Board of Directors 
had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares.

The split will take effect in the form of a 100 percent stock 
dividend payable on December 14th, 2004 to shareholders on record 
as of December 3rd.

About the company:
Headquartered in Los Angeles, Wilshire Bancorp is the parent 
company of Wilshire State Bank, which has 14 branch offices in 
California and Texas, and five Loan Production Offices in San 
Jose, Seattle, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Las Vegas. The bank 
is an SBA preferred lender at all of its office locations, 
excluding the newest LPOs in San Antonio and Las Vegas. Wilshire 
State Bank is a community bank with a focus on commercial real 
estate lending and general commercial banking, with its primary 
market encompassing the multi-ethnic populations of the Los 
Angeles Metropolitan area. The bank's strategic goals include 
increasing shareholder and franchise value by continuing to grow 
its multi-ethnic banking business and expanding its geographic 
reach to other similar markets with strong levels of small 
business activity. (source: company press release)

--

NBAN announces a 3-for-2 stock split

Tuesday afternoon the North Bay Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBAN) announced 
that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of 
its common shares. 

The split will take the form of a 50 percent stock dividend 
payable on December 16th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of 
December 6th.


About the company:
North Bay Bancorp is the parent company of The Vintage Bank based 
in Napa County and Solano Bank based in Solano County, both full 
service commercial banks offering a wide selection of deposit, 
loan and investment services to local consumers and small business 
customers. The Vintage Bank, opened in 1985, operates six banking 
offices in Napa County, Northern California's number one tourist 
destination and the nation's premier wine producing region. The 
Bank's main office and two branch offices are located in the City 
of Napa. Vintage also has branches in the City of St. Helena, 
American Canyon and the Southern industrial area of Napa County as 
well as an off-site ATM facility in Yountville. Solano Bank, 
opened in July 2000, operates offices in the primary cities along 
the I-80 corridor of Solano County. The Bank's main office is 
located in Vacaville, with branches in Fairfield, Vallejo and 
Benicia and an off-site ATM facility in downtown Fairfield. This 
region, projected to be the fastest growing county in Northern 
California through year 2020, is attracting businesses and 
residents with a quality lifestyle, affordable housing and 
business-friendly attitudes. (source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     PetroChina                 56.60     +0.80
AIG     American Intl Group        64.20     +1.35
MCD     McDonald's Corp            30.10     +0.72
PRU     Prudential Financial       49.13     +1.04
EXC     Exelon Corp                42.64     +0.57
STI     Suntrust Banks             71.68     +0.72

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RRC     Range Resources            19.91     +2.32
CBST    Cubist Pharmaceuticals     12.44     +1.01
GTOP    Genitope Corp              14.87     +1.13
REDF    Rediff.com Inda Ltd        10.29     +1.41
PCNTF   Pacific Internet Ltd        7.43     +1.26
BOOM    Dynamic Materials          15.43     +1.76

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
BNN     Brascan Corp               39.77     +1.51
XMSR    XM Satellite Radio         36.66     +1.94
NCR     NCR Corp                   59.15     +1.78
BG      Bunge Ltd                  51.00     +1.94
UPL     Ultra Petroleum            52.62     +1.12
FLR     Fluor Corp                 51.85     +3.34
PDS     Precision Drilling         64.45     +2.24

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MBT     Mobile Telesys            134.99     -8.38
CLX     Clorox                     55.05     -1.36
DY      Dycom Industries           29.80     -4.84
TSCO    Tractor Supply Co          32.45     -1.05
CNCT    Connetics                  26.35     -1.64
DIOD    Diodes Inc                 24.71     -1.15
NVEC    NVE Corp                   30.90     -5.36

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

ESRX    Express Scripts            72.25     -3.10
INTC    Intel Corp                 23.37     -0.73
GE      General Electric           35.81     -0.28
SMG     Scotts Co                  67.40     -0.53

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