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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 11/28/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-28-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: New Threat Ahead        
Market Sentiment: Heading Towards the Holidays    
Watch List: Another large Radar Screen          

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 11-26        WE 11-19        WE 11-12        WE 11-05 
DOW    10522.23 + 65.32 10456.9 - 82.10 10539.0 +151.47 +360.07 
Nasdaq  2101.97 + 31.34 2070.63 - 14.71 2085.34 + 46.40 + 63.95 
S&P-100  562.65 +  2.96  559.69 -  6.53  566.22 +  8.32 + 17.25 
S&P-500 1182.65 + 12.31 1170.34 - 13.83 1184.17 + 18.00 + 35.97 
W5000  11635.64 +155.01 11480.6 -129.04 11609.7 +200.13 +340.64 
SOX      430.98 -  0.90  431.88 +  8.07  423.81 +  5.98 +  5.58 
RUT      631.16 + 17.71  613.44 -  8.54  621.98 + 17.69 + 20.50 
TRAN    3647.99 + 80.34 3567.65 - 60.55 3628.20 + 55.70 + 75.08 
VXO       13.35           14.60           14.05           14.36 
VXN       17.85           19.72           18.82           19.47 
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

New Threat Ahead
by Jim Brown

We knew it was coming eventually but nobody expected it
to appear so soon. A little over a week ago Greenspan
warned the G20 summit attendees that the U.S. deficit
was unsustainable and they should reconsider their U.S.
investments in our bonds and Treasury notes. There was
a knee jerk reaction and the markets sold off on the
news from their new highs just a day earlier. Traders
withdrew into their shelters and started boarding up 
the doors to defend against the coming horde of dollar 
sellers. However, the lure of a Thanksgiving rally 
brought them back out into the light of day and the 
dip was bought. The rally appeared on schedule but was
very weak and lacking in conviction. Traders were still
leery of the impact from the Greenspan comments and
waiting for the next shoe to drop. They did not have
to wait long. 

On Thursday a news item hit the wires quoting a Chinese
central bank official saying they had reduced their holdings
of U.S. dollar debt from $585 billion to only $185 billion
over the last week. The futures markets had been wildly 
bullish from the overseas market action up to that point.
The S&P futures dropped nearly -8 points on the news and 
the open for Friday looked to be in serious trouble. The 
run on the dollar had begun according to most overnight 
analysis.

After several hours had passed another news item appeared
with a disclaimer from China that the official had been
misquoted. A couple hours later another release said the
official meant they had added to their dollar debt by
a large amount. Numbers started to blur, accusations 
flew and damage control was in full swing. Before trading
began at 9:30 the entire event had been discounted and
buried under dozens of conflicting news releases. The 
market opened higher and the damage was contained. By 
the end of the day every original news item from the 
last 24 hours discussing the event had been removed from
Yahoo news. The event never happened for anyone that did
not watch it unfold in real time. 98% of traders never 
even knew it happened but the market was still skittish
and was unable to shake off the worry cloud. The markets
gave up all their intraday gains and closed flat on 
worries that the truth would surface over the weekend 
and it would not be pretty. 

Just when the stars appeared to line up for an end of 
year rally there are clouds forming on the horizon and
moving in our direction at a high rate of speed. The
dollar has been falling for months or maybe I should
say declining. If a run on the dollar began then the
entire global economy could be at risk. Other countries
currently hold between $1.8 and $3.2 trillion in U.S. 
debt depending on whose numbers you believe. The weak 
dollar is not good for these investments as their value
has been dropping steadily every day. As long as the
decline is orderly each country can manage the move
and hedge against it. If a run on the bond bank began
and countries the size of China at $200+ billion in U.S.
debt and Japan at $1.2 trillion suddenly began dumping
those bonds at the rate the Thursday report suggested
then our interest rates would rocket higher causing
severe damage to our economy in a short period of time.
It also would eliminate these nations as buyers of our
new debt. If they are liquidating then they would have
no reason to buy more. We currently average over $2 
billion in debt sales per day. If there were no buyers
the rate at auction would rise dramatically. The U.S. 
debt has always had the privilege of being a sellers 
market with 2-3 times more bids than the amount of debt
being sold. This enables the U.S. to achieve the lowest
possible interest rate on its debt. If it changed to
a buyers market where there was fewer bidders than the
amount we need to sell then buyers could set the interest
rate they want to receive, not what the U.S. wants to pay.  
 
A weak dollar is actually beneficial to U.S. companies
because it makes our products more affordable to export
and makes products coming into the U.S. more expensive.
That slows purchases and increases sales and narrows
the trade deficit. It is bad for the nations selling 
to us because it depresses their economies due to the
slower export sales to us. Without our dollars to fuel
their growth everything slows down. On Friday it was
announced that BMW and Daimler Chrysler were going to 
lose millions on their exports to the U.S. because of
the existing dollar drop was already much more severe
than anyone expected. This is the tip of the iceberg
and the market is beginning to fear that it will grow
rapidly. 

I know most investors glaze over when analysts begin
talking about the dollar, bond relationships, foreign
currency fluctuations and their impact on our equity
markets. Unfortunately these inter-market relationships
are a fact of life. We have been fortunate not to have
seen a real currency impact to the markets since the
1998 Russian default. Currency problems tend to appear
rapidly and when least expected by the investing public.
The U.S. has not been the currency in trouble for decades.
Most commodities are denominated in dollars and most
pegged currencies in the world are pegged to the dollar.
If the dollar implodes the damage is global and it could
be severe. 

I believe the specificity of the initial story out of
China on Thursday and the nearly complete eradication of
all references before the end of the day suggests it was 
closer to the truth than we would care to admit. Damage
control was immediate and thorough. Much more thorough
than just an inaccurate story would have received. We
constantly see inaccurate stories on other things that
are rebutted and discussed in print and the story is
just corrected not erased. The stories remaining on the
web cast doubt on the original numbers quoted and almost
all suggest China actually added to its U.S. debt reserves
over the last week. Considering that the China Business 
News quoted a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary
policy committee in the initial article the individual was
in a position to know the real facts. The difference 
between liquidating billions in debt or adding billions
in U.S. debt are not likely to be confused. 

In reality it does not make any difference if the story
was true or not. The threat is still real and potentially
very damaging. Even if the story was not true the effects
may be lasting. Other holders of U.S. debt may be ready
to take the Greenspan warnings to heart and there may be
real trouble ahead. 

The markets never really shook off the worry cloud on
Friday and that was just the kind of rumor that could
weigh on institutional investors for weeks to come. The
dollar reached a new all time low against the Euro at
$1.32 on Friday and the $1.30 plateau many had suggested
was a temporary bottom has now been broken. The dollar
also hit a new four year low against the Yen. Metals and
oil could be up strongly on Monday as trading resumes
after the holiday. In short it could be a very volatile
week. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SOX Chart

 

On Wednesday the Dow rebounded to 10525 and within easy
reach of the prior highs at 10600. On Friday the Dow
managed to touch 10543 intraday but collapsed into the
close right back to the 10525 level. It was a weak effort
at best and the flat close suggests a strong fear of 
weekend darkness despite two potentially bullish weeks
ahead. 

The Nasdaq Composite was a mirror to the Dow. The Nasdaq
managed to close over 2100 by a couple points on Wednesday
and after the weak intraday bounce on Friday it pulled 
back to 2100 again at the close. This produced a mixed
message of holding the high ground but unable to advance
on a normally bullish day. 

The SPX was not left out with a bounce to 1186 resistance
once again but ended up less than a point for the day. 
The SOX was the weakest index and has pulled back to 
the 430 battle ground we have seen a lot lately. The 
Russell was the only index to set a new high and close 
at a new high but with less than a two point gain
it was also weak. 

The last two trading days are historically bullish. They
fulfilled their historical trend but only barely and that
could be troublesome. We still have a bullish setup ahead
but the worries are building. Actually the magnitude of
the worries is the real problem. Investors can shake off
things like earnings because they impact individual stocks
or at most several sectors. They can shake off economic
problems because traders are always overly optimistic
about the next economic report. It is easy for them to 
convince themselves that there was an external event like
a hurricane or blizzard that impacted the last one and 
the next one will be better. The one thing they can't
escape would be a global meltdown of the dollar. That 
would impact the economy, all businesses, all sectors
and all indexes. While few actually expect a meltdown
to occur the type of news I discussed above is exactly
how it would begin. This brings the problem too close
to reality for the big money players to ignore. 

The second problem is the recent gains. We have moved
substantially off the lows for the year that occurred
in October to the highs of the year last week. Funds
that moved from a loss for the year into a profit over
the last four weeks could be worried about a sudden
dollar problem erasing those gains and no fund manager
wants to close out the year in the red. 

Next week we also have a couple of serious hurdles to
cross. Thursday is not only the Microsoft dividend date
but it is also the Intel mid quarter update. Considering
the almost daily chip sector downgrades this could be
either confirmation of a continuing problem or a positive
event if Intel were to raise guidance. The Intel CEO said
twice last week that things were looking stronger for
2005 on general IT spending. If that translates into 
improved guidance on Thursday it could go a long way 
toward easing investor worries about buying the highs.

The economics heat up with the ISM, Personal Income,
Construction Spending and the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday.
Thursday has Monster Index and Factory Orders and Friday
has the Jobs report and ISM Services. The ISM on Wed and
the Jobs on Friday have the potential to ruin any further
December gains. Nobody expects any trouble but that is
when a bad number could do the most damage. The Jobs
numbers for October blew away estimates at +337,000 but
there is a lingering feeling that it was somehow related
to the hurricane and will not be repeatable. Should the
report disappoint it may not be a disaster for equities
but it could help blunt any end of year run. 

The saving grace for all of these problems is still the
Microsoft dividend payout on December 2nd. Most estimates
suggest that nearly $20+ billion of the $32 billion gift
will find its way back into the stock market within two
weeks of payment. When coupled with the current strong
inflows it could be a substantial liquidity event that
drowns investor worries in a sea of cash. 

For next week I am not expecting any material gains 
early in the week and I think most funds getting the
Microsoft cash will want to see the Intel update on
Thursday night and the Jobs report Friday morning before
making any big bets. That leaves the early part of the 
week in limbo and we could be directionally challenged.
I would like to think that some funds will continue to
position themselves in front of the Microsoft payout 
and that would lead to an underlying bid through Wed. 
Until we actually see that happening I would be more 
cautious about going long without a significant dip. 
The Chinese debt comments may have jinxed the bullish
sentiment we had just a couple days ago and until that
sentiment returns I would be more cautious.

We also saw a drop in cash inflows according to TrimTabs
with only +$1.3B through the week ended on Wednesday and
this was down from the +$5B from the prior week. Once the
rally started to cool so did the money flows. My parting 
instructions would be to remain bullish until the trend
clearly changes. Continue buying dips in the SPX above
1165 but consider closing long positions should that 
level fail. Don't be too eager to jump in on Monday and
give the market a chance to confirm a continued up trend
before committing to large positions. 
 
Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Heading Towards the Holidays
- J. Brown

 
Looking at stock prices alone one could surmise that investors 
remain favorable toward stocks.  There's been very little selling 
and most sectors continue to maintain their gains.  The good news 
for traders now is that we're moving toward December, which is 
historically the second best month of the year for stock gains.  
Not only do we have the last four-week push for the fourth 
quarter but the traditional Christmas rally or "Santa Claus 
rally" should begin soon. 

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac election year Decembers 
tend to do "well" plus we should see strength in small caps stock 
about mid-month.  This will be the early influence of the 
"January effect".  The almanac also suggests that oil stocks and 
gold stocks tend to do well in December.

Unfortunately, gains could be limited by renewed concerns over 
the U.S. dollar, the deficits and interest rates.  If you haven't 
read this weekend's market wrap I suggest you do so.  

Next week brings a ton of economic reports with the Q3 GDP 
numbers, consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, ISM index, non-farm 
payrolls, unemployment and more.  Plus, we'll hear the Intel mid-
quarter update, which could have a big affect on the direction 
for semiconductors and thus the NASDAQ.  



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10522

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10518
 50-dma: 10179 
200-dma: 10242 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1182

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1179
 50-dma: 1136
200-dma: 1122



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1578

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1556
 50-dma: 1471
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.79 +0.07
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.55 +0.58
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 17.94 +0.06 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.73        324,971       238,429
Equity Only    0.58        282,314       163,473
OEX            0.00          0,000         0,000
QQQ            2.15         15,605        33,645


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.5    + 0.5   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    75.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       73.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       72.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.87
10-dma: 0.96
21-dma: 0.95
55-dma: 1.09


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1526      1646
Decliners    1080      1186

New Highs     269       127
New Lows        5         8

Up Volume    380M      407M
Down Vol.    226M      240M

Total Vol.   616M      664M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/16/04

**The CFTC.GOV website has not updated the data since 11/16/04.
  We'll check again on Tuesday. 


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

For the first time in weeks the commercials are making a move.  
They upped their short positions days before the recent decline.
Meanwhile small traders remain marginally net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
10/26/04      441,263   445,992   ( 4,729)   (0.4%)
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      138,201   121,275    16,926     6.5%
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials traders also piled on the shorts in the e-minis
to produce the most bearish reading in weeks.  Small traders
also put more money to work but remained strongly net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
10/26/04      276,128   509,552   (233,424)  (29.7%)
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04      345,908     64,061   281,847    68.7%
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercials added to both their longs and their shorts but
saw no change in their bullish bias for the NDX.  Small traders
pared back some of their shorts but remained strong net bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
10/26/04       53,233     31,323    21,910   26.2%
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       10,521    25,388   (14,867)  (42.8%)
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (28,038) - 11/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Given the latest data as of 11/16/04 it looks like commercials
were beginning to bet on a pull back.  There was a reduction
in longs and an increase in shorts to create the first bearish
reading in weeks.  Small traders also increased their bearish
bias.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
10/26/04       25,707    24,855      852       1.6%
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
10/26/04        8,405     6,336    2,069     14.3%
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03
 

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Rite Aid - RAD - close: 3.85 change: +0.16 

WHAT TO WATCH: The consolidation in RAD is starting to grow more 
bullish with a trend of higher lows.  Watch for a move over $3.90 
or the 100-dma near $4.00 as a new bullish entry point.  The P&F 
chart is very bearish but is currently testing support so RAD 
could definitely bounce. 




---

Companhia Vale - RIO - close: 24.90 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: Breakout alert!  RIO soared about 3.5 percent on 
Friday as the metal and mining group rose on renewed concerns for 
the U.S. dollar and inflation.  RIO was already in a pennant-like 
consolidation pattern and Friday's breakout looks like a new 
bullish entry point. 




---

America Movil Sa - AMX - close: 44.80 change: +0.93

WHAT TO WATCH: It may be a little hard to see but AMX has been 
rising in a wide channel these past four months.  It looks more 
like AMX has been stair stepping higher.  Short-term technicals 
are already bullish and AMX looks ready to breakout from its 
four-week trading range.  Watch for a mover over $45.00 or $46.00 
(depending on your risk profile) as a new bullish entry point. 
The P&F chart is very bullish and points to $70.  We would target 
the $50 region.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PHG $25.97 +0.52 - PHG is trading near the top of its recent 
trading range.  Watch for a breakout over $26 and its simple 
200-dma.

GP $36.87 +0.51 - GP has been consolidating sideways in a trading 
range for months.  Watch for a move over $37.00 or $38.00 as a 
new bullish entry point.

PETD $40.13 +2.17 - PETD is another oil stock that is rebounding 
higher.  The move over $40 could be an entry point. 

PPC $34.99 +0.85 - The recent bounce from $32 looks like an entry 
point. 

ATI $22.93 +2.15 - ATI is another steel-related stock that is 
rising on the fears of the falling dollar and inflation.  The 
move over $22.00 looks like an entry point although we'd probably 
wait for a dip.  

LTD $25.78 +0.02 - A few days ago LTD painted a very large 
bearish engulfing candlestick.  Since then the stock has 
continued to suggest further weakness.  The breakdown under $26 
is bearish.  Watch for a move under $25.50 as a possible entry 
point for shorts.

SWIR $19.52 +0.06 - We're still watching for a breakout over 
$20.00 (or $20.20 for conservative traders). 

FMX $46.50 +0.30 - FMX continues to look bullish with the move 
over $46.00.
 

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-28-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  SEBL
  Bearish Play Updates:  ASKJ

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACH, CHK, CVX, DNR, ZEUS, OMM, ONXX, PCU, 
                         RIG
  Bearish Play Updates:  TSCO

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  VLCCF

Stock Splits
  Announcements:         None


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Siebel Systems - SEBL - close: 10.05 change: -0.11 stop: 9.49

It would appear that as the GSO software index's momentum begins to 
fade a bit shares of SEBL are also consolidating.  Fortunately SEBL 
looks a lot less overextended than the GSO software index.  
Unfortunately, SEBL will still be affected by a pull back in the 
sector.  Readers can watch for a dip or bounce from the $9.75 level 
but we'd suggest waiting for SEBL to breakout over the $10.25 mark 
before considering new bullish positions.  

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 17 at $10.18
Gain since picked:       - 0.13
Earnings Date          10/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       7.5 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 25.01 change: -0.25 stop: 25.65*new*

This is a pivotal test for ASKJ.  Last week the stock was upgraded 
and shares bounced on the news but are so far unable to breakout 
over its four-week trend of lower highs.  We remain very cautious 
given its push back above the round-number resistance level at the 
$25.00 mark.  With ASKJ butting against this trendline we're going 
to tighten our stop loss at $25.65 to minimize our risk.  We 
probably wouldn't consider new bearish positions unless ASKJ traded 
under $23.50 again.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $24.10 
Gain since picked:       + 0.91
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.7 million 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Aluminum Corp China - ACH - close: 65.66 chg: +2.52 stop: 59.75

Metal-related and commodity stocks were trading higher on Friday 
after concerns renewed over the falling U.S. dollar and rising 
inflation.  ACH soared through resistance at $64.00 with a 3.99 
percent gain.  Volume was decent for a half-day holiday Friday.  
This looks like a new bullish entry point as we target a move 
toward resistance at $70.00.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $63.45 
Gain since picked:       + 2.21
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand



---

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 18.13 change: +0.10 stop: 16.00

The momentum continues for CHK.  Shares broke out to new highs last 
week after traders bought the dip to $17.50.  The stock looks a 
little overbought here so another dip to $17.50 may be worth 
waiting for.  Our target remains unchanged in the $19-20 range but 
we are raising our stop loss to $16.99.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 12 at $17.21
Gain since picked:       + 0.92
Earnings Date          11/01/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 



---

ChevronTexaco - CVX - close: 54.84 change: +0.26 stop: 51.99

Ding!  We've been triggered in CVX.  Shares traded up and through 
round-number resistance at $55.00 on Friday to hit $55.21.  Our 
trigger to open longs was at $55.15.  Unfortunately, CVX couldn't 
hold its gains.  If shares dip watch for support and a bounce from 
the $54 level as the next potential entry point.  Otherwise we'd go 
long over Friday's high.  Our target remains the $60-62 range.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 26 at $55.15 
Gain since picked:       - 0.31
Earnings Date          10/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.8 million 



---

Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 28.58 chg: +0.18 stop: 24.99*new*

DNR is part of the oil sector but while the OIX index is breaking 
out over resistance shares of DNR are breaking out to new highs.  
The stock has soared on rising volume.  While we are very 
encouraged by DNR's strength the stock now looks a little 
overbought.  Watch for a dip before considering new positions.  Our 
six to eight week target is still the 32.50 region.  We are going 
to raise our stop loss to $24.99.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 22 at $27.51 
Gain since picked:       + 1.07
Earnings Date          10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       366 thousand




---

Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 22.10 chg: +2.50 stop: 18.99*new*

Wow!  ZEUS has really come alive in the last session.  Like many 
steel and metal or commodity stocks ZEUS soared on renewed fears 
that the falling U.S. dollar would begin to negatively affect the 
inflation situation.  The 12.8 percent rally on strong volume is 
very bullish.  Its P&F chart now points to a $32 target.  Our 
short-term target is only the $24.50-25.00 region.  We're going to 
raise our stop loss to $18.99. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $20.65 
Gain since picked:       + 1.45
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       303 thousand



---

OMI Corp - OMM - close: 20.25 change: -0.05 stop: 18.49*new*

This past week was very bullish for stocks in the water 
transportation industry.  OMM surged from its weeklong 
consolidation near $18.50 and broke out over round-number 
resistance at $20.00.  The stock is up about 10 percent from our 
entry point so short-term traders may want to do some profit 
taking, especially since our original target was the $20-21 range.  
We're going to raise our stop loss to $18.49. Our new target will 
be the $21.50-22.00 range. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 10 at $18.45 
Gain since picked:       + 1.80
Earnings Date          10/18/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       1.1 million 



---

ONYX Pharma - ONXX - close: 31.64 change: +0.87 stop: 29.95

After six days of trading sideways between $30.00 and $31.50 shares 
of ONXX managed to breakout on Friday with a 2.8 percent rally.  
This looks like a bullish entry point.  Watch for some follow 
through on Monday.  No change in our strategy or stop loss.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 18 at $31.26
Gain since picked:       + 0.38
Earnings Date          11/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 million 



---

Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 47.74 chg: +0.92 stop: 44.99*new*

The mining and metal stocks turned higher on Friday as concerns 
renewed over the sliding U.S. dollar and rising inflation.  PCU has 
bounced from the $45.00 level to breakout over all its significant 
moving averages.  This looks like a new bullish entry point but 
we'd watch for some follow through next week.  We are raising our 
stop loss to $44.99.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 14 at $47.90 
Gain since picked:       + 0.16
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       353 thousand



---

Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 41.12 change: +0.30 stop: 37.45*new*

RIG has been a real leader in the oil services sector.  Shares 
broke out over resistance at $37.50 several days ago and it's been 
a near constant stream of gains.  The breakout over $40.00 is very 
bullish and its P&F chart points to a $56 target.  Our year-end 
target was the $42.50-45.00 range but shares could get there 
sooner.  This is a tough spot to consider new positions as RIG 
looks short-term overbought.  Watch for a dip back towards $40.00 
as a new entry point.  We are raising our stop loss to $37.45.  
Short-term traders may want to consider some profit taking 
considering RIG's 9.6 percent rally.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 18 at $37.51
Gain since picked:       + 3.61
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Tractor Supply Co - TSCO - cls: 32.45 chg: -0.15 stop: 35.01*new*

We are growing more and more impressed with TSCO's relative 
weakness.  The retail sector was mostly bullish this past week as 
the day after Thanksgiving initiates the onset of the holiday 
shopping season. Not so for shares of TSCO, which continues to 
trend lower.  TSCO is currently testing support at the $32 level 
but should have new resistance at $33 and $34.  We're going to 
lower our stop loss to $35.01.  Remember, our initial target was 
the $31 to $30 range but the stock is already down significantly, 
it may pay to do a little bit of profit taking here. 

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 07 at $35.68 
Gain since picked:       - 3.23
Earnings Date          10/11/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       422 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Knightsbridge Tankers - VLCCF - cls: 38.11 chg: +0.05 stop: 34.85

Hmm.. not a bad week for VLCCF but not very impressive.  This 
momentum play is looking a little overbought so some traders may 
want to wait for a dip back to $37.00 as a potential entry point.  
Fortunately, VLCCF continues to show very strong relative strength 
as does the water transportation industry.  No change in our 
strategy or our stop loss.  The P&F chart remains positive with the 
bullish triangle breakout and $59 target.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on November 22 at $37.60 
Gain since picked:       + 0.51
Earnings Date          00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       307 thousand


 

==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None



=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-28-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 28th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of November 28th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

*This is not a complete list.  We only try and highlight the 
more significant earnings reports.


Symbol  Co               Date           Comment          EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

DCI   Donaldson           Mon, Nov 29  After the market     0.33
LXU   LSB Industries      Mon, Nov 29  ----- n/a -----      n/a
NPSN  NASPERS Ltd         Mon, Nov 29  Before the bell      n/a
OSIP  OSI Pharmaceuticals Mon, Nov 29  Before the bell     -1.17
PTNR  Partner Comm.       Mon, Nov 29  Before the bell      n/a
SMTC  Semtech             Mon, Nov 29  After the market     0.19


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ADEX  ADE Corp            Tue, Nov 30  After the market     0.39
AMWD  American Woodmark   Tue, Nov 30  Before the bell      0.60
AGL   Angelica Corp       Tue, Nov 30  After the market     0.28
BTH   Blyth Inc.          Tue, Nov 30  ----- n/a -----      0.72
CHS   Chico's FAS         Tue, Nov 30  After the market     0.38
CPRT  Copart              Tue, Nov 30  After the market     0.21
EAG   Eagle Broadband     Tue, Nov 30  After the market     n/a
FGP   Ferrellgas Ptrnrs   Tue, Nov 30  Before the bell     -0.64
JTX   Jackson Hewitt      Tue, Nov 30  After the market    -0.32
OVTI  Omnivision Tech     Tue, Nov 30  After the market     0.24
SFD   Smithfield Foods    Tue, Nov 30  Before the bell      0.52
UNFI  United Natrl Foods  Tue, Nov 30  Before the bell      0.23


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

CMVT  Comverse Technology Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.07
CMOS  Credence Systems    Wed, Dec 01  After the market    -0.18
DG    Dollar General Corp Wed, Dec 01  Before the bell      0.25
DDN   Dynamex             Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.25
NMGa  Neimen Marcus       Wed, Dec 01  After the market     1.45
PLL   Pall Corp           Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.21
SNPS  Synopsys            Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.03
SYNO  Synovis Life Tech.  Wed, Dec 01  Before the bell      0.04
ULCM  Ulticom             Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.09
VRNT  Verint Systems      Wed, Dec 01  After the market     0.21



------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ABS   Albertson's         Thr, Dec 02  Before the bell      0.33
ASTT  ASAT Holdings Ltd   Thr, Dec 02  ----- n/a -----     -0.07
BCM   Canadn. Imperl. Bnk Thr, Dec 02  ----- n/a -----      1.14
CAO   CSK Auto            Thr, Dec 02  After the market     0.32
DLM   Del Monte Foods     Thr, Dec 02  Before the bell      0.21
KWD   Kellwood Co         Thr, Dec 02  After the market     1.00
MBG   Mandalay Resort     Thr, Dec 02  After the market     0.87
NX    Quanex              Thr, Dec 02  ----- n/a -----      1.10
RWY   Rent-Way Inc.       Thr, Dec 02  After the market     0.06
SOFO  Sonic Foundry       Thr, Dec 02  Before the bell      n/a
ULTE  Ultimate Electrncs  Thr, Dec 02  ----- n/a -----     -0.53


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

FLE   Fleetwood Enterpr.  Fri, Dec 03  After the market     0.16
KIRK  Kirklands Inc.      Fri, Dec 03  Before the bell     -0.15
SVC   Stewart & Stevenson Fri, Dec 03  Before the bell      0.24


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

TASR    TASER Intl. Inc           2:1      Nov 29th    Nov 30th
MSL     MidSouth Bancorp          5:4      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
SYMC    Symantec                  2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
RYL     Ryland Group Inc.         2:1      Nov 30th    Dec 01th
ANNB    Annapolis Bancorp         4:3      Dec  3rd    Dec  6th
CAKE    Cheesecake Factory        3:2      Dec  8th    Dec  9th

-----------------------------------
Economic Reports & Events This Week
-----------------------------------

This is a very busy week for economic data.  Tuesday brings the 
Q3 GDP numbers, Consumer confidence and Chicago PMI.  Wednesday
has the ISM index, Fed's Biege book and more.  Friday brings
the big event with the November jobs report. 

==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 11/29/04
----------------
none..

-----------------
Tuesday, 11/30/04
-----------------
Q3 GDP numbers - preliminary reading  Last: 3.7%  Est: 3.7%
Q3 Chain Deflator preliminary         Last: 1.3%  Est: 1.3%
Consumer Confidence for November      Last: 92.8  Est: 96.8
Chicago PMI for November              Last: 68.5  Est: 61.0

-------------------
Wednesday, 12/01/04
-------------------
ISM Index for November
Fed's Biege Book
Personal Spending for October
Personal Income for October
Construction Spending for October
Auto Sales for November 
Truck Sales for November

------------------
Thursday, 12/02/04
------------------
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Factory Orders for October
Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke speaks on Monetary Policy

----------------
Friday, 12/03/04
----------------
Non Farm Payrolls for November       Last: 337K   Est: 200K
Unemployment Rate for November
ISM Services for November 
Hourly Earnings for November
Average Workweek for November
Federal Reserve Governor Mcteer speaks on outsourcing.


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)            110.16     +1.35
BP      BP Plc                     61.66     +0.86
MO      Altria Group               58.19     +0.83
UN      Unilever N.V.              63.30     +0.70
PHG     Koninklijke Phillips       25.97     +0.52
HIG     Hartford Financial Svcs    64.70     +0.58

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

EP      El Paso Corp               11.54     +1.20
MFLX    Multi-fineline Electronix  18.24     +1.05
BIVN    Bioenvision Inc            11.22     +1.07
ANGO    Angiodynamics              16.24     +1.30
MSB     Mesabi Trust               13.88     +1.13

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
ATI     Allegheny Technologies     22.93     +2.15
MSO     Martha Stewart             24.63     +2.89
SMMX    Symyx Technologies         31.14     +1.06
UTHR    United Therapeutics        45.51     +3.97
RES     RPC Inc                    27.07     +2.68
ADBL    Audible Inc                29.05     +1.65
ZEUS    Olympic Steel              22.11     +2.51

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

RWT     Redwood Trust Inc          58.40     -3.84

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

..none..

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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