PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-30-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Passing Time Watch List: More Entry Points on Possible Plays Market Sentiment: Good Time for a Dip. ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 11-30-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10428.02 - 47.90 10483.14 10428.02 1.95 bln 1372/1885 NASDAQ 2096.81 - 10.10 2107.45 2096.81 1.91 bln 1395/1754 S&P 100 557.47 - 2.68 560.58 557.46 Totals 2767/3639 S&P 500 1173.82 - 4.75 1178.66 1173.81 SOX 423.87 - 6.00 431.29 423.86 RUS 2000 633.77 - 0.69 635.81 632.53 DJ TRANS 3658.71 + 8.60 3663.30 3638.47 VIX 13.24 - 0.06 13.38 13.07 VXO (VIX-O)13.54 - 0.08 14.17 13.53 VXN 18.88 + 0.01 18.90 18.52 Total Volume 4,214M Total UpVol 1,760M Total DnVol 2,379M Total Adv 3162 Total Dcl 4175 52wk Highs 531 52wk Lows 44 TRIN 1.04 NAZTRIN 1.01 PUT/CALL 0.89 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Passing Time by Jim Brown The markets could not make up their mind today and spent the entire dsession trading in a range and passing time while waiting for Friday. Funds planning on purchases with the Microsoft dividend money likely spent the day adjusting positions and dropping less desirable stocks. The result was a terribly boring range bound day that ended right on support across the board. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SPX Chart There was a very confusing mix of economic news and stock traders were unsure which reflected reality. The Chain Store Sales fell -1.5% for the week ended 11/27 and that was the biggest drop since March 27th when the index fell -1.9% for the week. Correct me if I am wrong here but shouldn't Thanksgiving week be one of the strongest weeks of the year? We have already heard that Wal-Mart barely posted a gain over last year due to a bad decision about specially discounted items but some other retailers did well. We heard from the retail sector that many stores saw increases in the +4% range but it looks like those chains were not a significant part of the survey. The ICSC-UBS Index is now resting near its late October low for the year and casts doubt on the strength of the season. ICSC lowered its sales forecast for November sales to 2.5% to 3.0% from the 3.5% to 4% it had previously predicted. Also causing confusion was a drop in Consumer Confidence to 90.5 from 92.9 and fourth consecutive monthly drop. The consensus estimates were calling for a significant increase to 96.3. Obviously somebody forgot to tell the consumers. The present conditions component was slightly higher at 95.2 from 94.0 in October. The expectations component was the culprit as it fell from 92.2 to 87.4. Something weighed on the consumer consciousness and they are becoming worried about the future. We did see oil return to $50 and the market floundered after testing the highs back on Nov-17th. There was also a round of analysts suggesting any end of year rally would find tough sledding once January appeared with much lower growth estimates for 2005. There was a significant drop in buying expectations with those planning on buying a home falling to 2.4% from 3.6%, autos fell to 4.2% from 7.6% and major appliance purchasers fell to 24.2% from 27.8%. The sum of those three components was the lowest since the early 1990s and the auto component was the lowest on record. Expectations of business conditions worsening and fewer jobs also rose. The headline number at 90.5 was the lowest reading since March. The biggest decline in confidence came from households with income under $35K per year. The Chicago PMI fell to 65.2 from last months two decade high at 68.5. No surprise there given the current state of the economy. Just a normal pullback after a strong spike. This may be seasonal more than a drop in the business climate. Products made for the holidays had to be in stores by Thanksgiving and that sent production to the October highs. In November production fell to 68.4 from 79.7 and new orders dropped to 70.0 from 79.4. Order backlogs fell to 52.7 from 60.9. Unbelievably employment soared to 60.8 from 54.1. Production is catching up with demand either from slowing demand or increasing production. This was still a strong report and could just be indicating that the production spike for the holiday season is over. The NY-NAPM rose again to 319.3 from last months 313.7 and continued its multi month march higher. The index is up +40.5% from this time last year. Manufacturing components slowed but non manufacturing numbers rose. The coming bonuses in the financial sector should keep the bloom on the big NYC apple until early next year. The yearlong increase in conditions should then moderate given the potential change in the tax structure in 2005. Another upside surprise came from the GDP with a 3.9% headline number and better than the previously reported +3.7% growth. Conditions were mostly positive with a better trade balance and increases in consumption. The downside was a drop in corporate profits by -2.4% due to hurricane damage and the lag time for insurance payments. Business investments also increased as they tried to capture the accelerated depreciation on new equipment purchased before year end. Inventories were revised down sharply to $31.8B from $47.8B which was previously reported. This should increase GDP in the 4Q as inventory levels are rebuilt. The end of year replacement cycle for computer equipment is well underway as evidenced by Dell's gains in revenue and earnings. HPQ also showed gains in the PC sector and for both companies the gains are due in a large part by the accelerated depreciation for equipment purchased this year. With less than 30 days remaining in this economic stimulant it was not surprising to see the Gartner Group warn that several computer companies may go away soon. Gartner said the accelerated depreciation was keeping several in business and once that ceased any growth in the PC sector was going to be limited to single digits in 2005. According to Gartner we have seen six quarters of double digit growth and that has kept those third string players in the game. Dell, IBM and HPQ are not expected to drop out of the business and Dell was the preferred vendor for the long run. According to Gartner Dell could sell computers for less than it cost others to make them given their scale and buying power. NEC and Toshiba were farther down the list and questionable as future players. Gartner thought the next replacement cycle would begin in 2008 when the new operating system is due out from Microsoft. Wal-Mart continued to drop today with share prices back at $52 and support from the summer. The David Faber, CNBC bounce has been erased due to a miscalculation on the Thanksgiving advertising plan. Seems Wal-Mart believed that consumers would remember they always have low prices on everything all the time without massive advertising. Stores like Target, Mervyns, Kohls, Sears, etc, blanketed mailboxes, papers and airwaves with advertised specials and were successful in attracting consumers for the big holiday cycle. WMT saw only a minimal gain in sales for the weekend and a major drop in market cap as a result of their error. WMT has lost -$13 billion in market cap over the last two days but they assured investors they will rectify the situation very quickly. My guess is the sleeping lion is no longer sleeping and will be roaring and advertised specials will be appearing everywhere over the next five weeks. I hope Target and Kmart enjoyed their weekend because the next five weeks could be a lot tougher. WMT can afford to spend more on advertising than most other retailers have in weekend sales. WMT at $50 sounds like a buying opportunity to me. Tomorrow will be the debut of the QQQ on the Nasdaq as the QQQQ. The AMEX will continue to trade the QQQ but on an unlisted basis and volume is likely to be minimal. The QQQ/QQQQ is the most actively traded ETF in the world with more than 100 million shares traded each day. The QQQ is not the only major change this week. The SOX will have its first major makeover in two years with the addition of three stocks and the removal of two. The SOX index will drop MOT and LSI. Motorola is being dropped because they spun off their chip division into Freescale Semi (FSL) back in July. LSI is being dropped because it no longer reflects leadership in the sector according to the Philadelphia Exchange. Freescale (FSL), Infineon (IFX) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are being added to the SOX. The changes will be made before the start of trading on Friday. The SOX options are the eighth most traded index options for 2004. After the bell today NVLS gave investors their mid quarter update saying that earnings would be in the upper half of their projected range. They projected earnings in the 24-26 cent range and analysts had only projected 21 cents. They also said the business climate remained sluggish but they saw a strong sell through until year end. They are hoping consumer-buying trends will be strong enough to prompt a new wave of component orders in 2005 that result in new equipment from NVLS. Sounds like a strong rendition of "wishing and hoping" by the NVLS chorus. PHG announced on Tuesday that they were cutting their 2005 estimates for global chip growth to ZERO from +5%. They also said they had shipped more than one billion mobile displays and should complete their second billion within six years. They are the leading supplier of cell phone screens and they expect volume to double in value and volume over the next four years. Gold prices hit a high of $456 today and just below the $457 high set on Monday. While the weak dollar may be a motivating force the real reason is the $1.5 billion in new demand to back the GLD ETF. Since the fund is backed by the metal they must buy gold for every share that is purchased. This is new demand that did not previously exist and is taking supplies out of the circulation pipeline. Since this gold will not be used for anything but collateral it will not reappear on the market unless the new gold bugs begin dumping those GLD shares. This has driven the price from $425 to over $455 in the last three weeks. Add in the weak dollar and you have 18 year highs. November is over and despite any concerted month end buying the indexes had a spectacular month. The Russell rose +8.5%, Nasdaq +6.2%, S&P Midcap +5.8%, Transports +4.6% and of course the S&P rounding out the list at +3.9%. The Dow squeaked in with a +4% gain and the Wilshire only slightly better at +4.6%. Considering the weakness since Nov-18th it is surprising the indexes did as well as they did. The SOX tried to make a run for negative territory but found support for a +2.9% gain once the smoke cleared. Those positive numbers above are the probable reason for the negative numbers we have seen for the last week or so. The Thanksgiving rally was very minimal and funds appeared to be taking the first two days this week as an opportunity to lighten up on those stocks they did not want to take into year end. Profits are not profits until they are sold and booked. This is a hurdle week for economics and with the Intel update on Thursday night there is plenty of suspense. We have a heavy economic schedule ahead with the ISM on Wednesday leading the list. The November Jobs report is due out Friday morning only a few hours after Intel confesses. Add in ten other economic reports between tonight and Friday morning and there is ample reason to lighten the load ahead of the Microsoft dividend payable on Thursday. TrimTabs is now estimating that $22B to $25B will be put back into stocks over the week beginning on Friday. This is a huge amount of liquidity and should float the markets for at least two weeks. I personally believe funds are adjusting positions this week to prepare for the liquidity boom. Given the risk from Intel and Jobs I doubt we will see any major gains until Friday or possibly even Monday of next week. Of course if early buyers begin to appear the race could start sooner than expected. That adjustment knocked about -50 points off the Dow today and closed it right on support that has held since 11/22 at 10430. While this would appear to be a critical level we could easily see a dip to 10370 and stronger support with no damage to the long term uptrend. In fact another dip lower would be welcomed by those buyers wanting one last entry point before Friday. The Nasdaq has been much stronger than the Dow and held the 2100 level once again with only a minor -2 point break at the close. The Nasdaq is holding the high ground despite the SOX weakness from the impending Intel update. The positive NVLS news tonight could help support the SOX and in turn hold up the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has plenty of decent support between 2060-2100 and is not in danger unless we have a real buyer revolt. The SPX is also holding on support at 1175 with stronger support at 1170 and 1165. A worst-case scenario would be for the SPX to drop back to 1165 to clear the stops and then rebound into the liquidity event. I would still be a dip buyer above 1165. My plan for the rest of the week is to try to remain long over SPX 1165 and wait for the cash to begin flowing. If fund managers simply pocket the cash for a rainy day there could be a lot of bulls headed for slaughter. I don't expect this because find managers need to use that money to prop up the market and guarantee returns into the year end. Once we get to January earnings it could be a very different scenario but we will worry about that once the gift wrap hits the trash and the Christmas trees hit the curb. Grab some Maalox and continue buying the dips over SPX 1165. If you have not registered the end of year renewal special this would be a good time to check it out! Bonuses are shipped in the order they are received. Buy the dips until the trend changes. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Avon Products - AVP - close: 37.54 change: -0.86 WHAT TO WATCH: Entry point alert! The oversold bounce from the early November breakdown has failed. Now AVP is being sold on any signs of strength. The bearish consolidation should produce a breakdown under support at $37.50 soon. Use a drop under $37.50 as an entry point. We would use a stop loss just over the $39.00 mark. The first level of support should be $35.00 but the bearish P&F chart points toward $29. --- Gerdau Sa - GGB - close: 18.20 change: +1.04 WHAT TO WATCH: Several steel-related stocks soared higher today without any specific news. Odds are it's a reaction to the falling dollar and concerns over inflation, etc. unless there was news of a merger/acquisition in the industry that we couldn't find news on. Whatever the case we like the very strong volume behind the multi-day ramp up in shares of this Brazilian steel producer. Today's breakout over resistance at $18.00 looks like a momentum trader's entry point. The P&F chart points to a long- term target at $28. --- Intuit Inc - INTU - close: 41.84 change: -0.81 WHAT TO WATCH: Could this be another bearish entry point? We strongly considered adding INTU to the play list tonight as a short candidate. Shares have produced a rounded top over the last three months and now the selling has pushed INTU through support at $42.00 and its 100-dma and 200-dma. We would probably target a drop toward the $39-38 region. --- Natl Semiconductor - NSM - close: 15.46 change: -0.44 WHAT TO WATCH: NSM has been trying to breakout over the $17.00 region and its exponential 200-dma for weeks. It looks like the last failed rally was the trick. Now with the SOX slipping lower shares of NSM have broken their trend of higher lows. This looks like a bearish entry point to short the stock with a target in the $14.00 range if not lower. The risk here is the Intel mid- quarter update on Thursday night. Positive comments could turn the sector around. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- EXM $36.32 +5.15 - Wow! We didn't expect the rally to be so quick or so sharp. The next levels of resistance are $37.50 and $40.00. FDO $29.30 -1.27 - Today's breakdown under the $30.00 level and its 200-dma's looks pretty negative. Volume was strong. UTSI $19.54 +0.82 - Watch UTSI for a breakout over the $20.00 level. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Good Time for a Dip. - J. Brown After an incredible run in the markets from late October through mid-November stocks are finally beginning to see some profit taking. We've been warning about a possible consolidation for a couple of weeks but the best (or worst) stocks could do was trade sideways. Today the technical indicators on the major indices have finally turned into bearish signals. Short-term traders looking at gains over the past month should strongly consider doing some profit taking of their own. Yet don't run far. We're not expecting the pull back to be very deep. If you're a Fibonnaci trader watch the Industrials for a dip back toward 10,250. This would be a 38.2% retracement of its October- November run. Coincidentally this is also just above its simple 200-dma, which should offer technical support. The rest of the major indices look equally vulnerable to some profit taking. After all the month of November saw the Industrials gain 4%, the S&P 500 added 3.9% and the NASDAQ Composite soared for a 6.2% gain. A dip this week with the host of economic reports would make sense. Disappointing or not traders could use the economic news as an excuse to sell. They certainly have their pick of reports to blame. Wednesday brings the ISM index, Fed's Biege book, construction spending, Personal Income and spending, Auto and truck sales. Thursday will bring the factor orders. Friday hosts the November jobs report, the ISM services index and more! On top of all the economic news we have the Intel mid-quarter update to watch on Thursday evening. Confidence is not running high as Intel and many in the semiconductor sector are heading south. Fortunately, as Jim mentioned in the wrap tonight, analysts expect a large chunk of the multi-billion dollar Microsoft cash dividend to find its way back into stocks. The dividend is paid late this week so we can probably expect all this money to hit stocks next week just in time for a Santa Claus rally. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9585 Current : 10428 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10499 50-dma: 10188 200-dma: 10240 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1188 52-week Low : 1031 Current : 1173 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1178 50-dma: 1138 200-dma: 1122 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1581 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1571 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1569 50-dma: 1483 200-dma: 1442 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.24 -0.06 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 13.54 +0.08 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 18.84 +0.01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.89 597,404 529,019 Equity Only 0.69 480,231 331,968 OEX 0.71 18,722 13,328 QQQ 4.52 15,970 72,181 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 74.2 + 0.7 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 74.0 - 1 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 66.6 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 72.4 - 0.6 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 72.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.82 10-dma: 0.97 21-dma: 0.95 55-dma: 1.10 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1244 1365 Decliners 1595 1671 New Highs 175 143 New Lows 8 7 Up Volume 825M 826M Down Vol. 1101M 1029M Total Vol. 1957M 1883M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/23/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials are growing more bearish despite upping both their long and short positions. As usual the small traders are headed the opposite direction by growing more bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/02/04 446,192 441,676 ( 4,516) (0.4%) 11/09/04 447,779 449,171 ( 1,392) (0.1%) 11/16/04 452,149 468,048 (15,899) (1.7%) 11/23/04 462,408 491,384 (28,976) (3.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 136,290 132,040 4,250 1.5% 11/09/04 148,415 136,325 12,090 4.2% 11/16/04 166,862 156,751 10,111 3.1% 11/23/04 171,192 150,606 20,586 6.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials have been consistently bearish on the e-minis but they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish bias. Small traders remain staunchly net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/02/04 307,053 580,081 (273,028) (30.7%) 11/09/04 337,164 672,903 (335,739) (33.2%) 11/16/04 371,282 796,279 (424,997) (36.4%) 11/23/04 412,724 849,091 (436,367) (34.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367) - 11/23/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 395,029 63,746 331,283 72.2% 11/09/04 392,253 58,999 333,254 73.8% 11/16/04 445,737 70,169 375,568 72.8% 11/23/04 400,995 62,080 338,915 73.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 No change here. Commercials remain net bullish. Small traders remain net bearish, although they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish attitudes. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 53,002 31,231 21,771 25.0% 11/09/04 54,509 33,016 21,493 24.5% 11/16/04 55,737 33,683 22,054 24.6% 11/23/04 58,159 34,104 24,055 26.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 8,886 36,621 (27,735) (61.3%) 11/09/04 10,213 38,251 (28,038) (57.8%) 11/16/04 10,533 37,660 (27,127) (56.2%) 11/23/04 11,153 39,712 (28,559) (56.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (28,559) - 11/23/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Both professional traders and small traders are growing more bearish on the Industrials. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 25,319 24,261 1,058 2.0% 11/09/04 22,863 22,463 400 0.8% 11/16/04 22,004 23,744 (1,740) (3.8%) 11/23/04 22,527 25,537 (3,010) (6.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 7,952 6,306 1,261 8.8% 11/09/04 6,165 6,483 ( 318) ( 2.5%) 11/16/04 5,937 6,533 ( 596) ( 4.7%) 11/23/04 5,833 8,299 (2,466) (17.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-30-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: TSCO Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) Closed Bearish Plays: ASKJ Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) Closed Bullish Plays: ZEUS Stock Splits Announcements: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== TSCO - non-tech short - Hang on! TSCO fell another 3.3 percent to drop beneath support at the $32.00 level. Our target has been the $30-31 range. TSCO is close. Readers can prepare to exit. ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 25.84 change: +0.69 stop: 25.65 ASKJ bucked the overall down draft in the market today with a 2.7 percent gain. The rally appears to have been fueled by a positive presentation at the CSFB conference today. The move quickly pushed ASKJ up and through our stop loss at $25.65. Picked on November 10 at $24.10 Gain since picked: + 1.74 Earnings Date 10/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 4.7 million ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 27.00 chg: +3.73 stop: 18.99 ZEUS has exceeded our expectations. The current rally exploded higher with a huge 16 percent run on extremely strong volume more than four times the average. The strange thing is that we can't find any news on the stock's move. Normally, we'd be inclined to just tighten our stop and let ZEUS run since shares look poised to keep climbing. The next resistance level should be the $30 region. However, since our initial target was the $25 region we're going to exit now and not get greedy. Picked on November 14 at $20.65 Gain since picked: + 6.35 Earnings Date 10/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 303 thousand ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FNM Fannie Mae 68.62 +0.67 FRE Freddie Mac 67.97 +0.98 PBR Petroleo Brasileiro 38.10 +1.43 BR Burlington Resources 46.30 +0.80 CAH Cardinal Health 52.39 +0.74 CSC Computer Sciences 54.16 +0.95 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- GGB Gerdau Sa (ADS) 18.25 +1.09 RHAT Red Hat Inc 14.48 +1.06 NKTR Nektar Therapeutics 18.48 +3.39 GSIC GSI Commerce Inc 15.13 +1.51 WPTE WPT Enterprises 14.50 +2.27 PACT Pacificnet Inc 11.39 +1.77 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- LLL L-3 Communications 74.51 +1.55 RE Everest Re Group 84.26 +1.91 WRI Weingarten Realty 40.90 +2.71 SFD Smithfield Foods 29.15 +1.25 PRE Partnerre Ltd 61.30 +1.04 RKY Adolph Coors 74.92 +1.83 BOW Bowater Inc 40.56 +1.05 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- TM Toyota Motor Corp 74.73 -1.31 AGN Allergen Inc 73.67 -3.10 RSH Radioshack 31.40 -2.08 FDO Family Dollar Stores 29.28 -1.29 CHS Chico's FAS Inc 38.29 -1.71 RSAS RSA Security 21.08 -2.25 PHRM Pharmion Corp 42.34 -2.41 SILI Siliconix Inc 36.99 -2.64 ELOS Syneron Medical 27.05 -10.15 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- TXU TXU Corp 62.90 -2.30 UTIW UTI Worldwide 68.93 -2.44 UFCS United Fire & Casualty 66.60 -1.39 LCAV LCA-Vision 32.80 -1.78 SO The Southern Co 32.85 -0.58 LEA Lear Corp 57.96 -0.93 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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