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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 11/30/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-30-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Passing Time
Watch List:        More Entry Points on Possible Plays
Market Sentiment:  Good Time for a Dip.

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      11-30-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10428.02 - 47.90 10483.14 10428.02 1.95 bln 1372/1885
NASDAQ   2096.81 - 10.10  2107.45  2096.81 1.91 bln 1395/1754
S&P 100   557.47 -  2.68   560.58   557.46   Totals 2767/3639
S&P 500  1173.82 -  4.75  1178.66  1173.81 
SOX       423.87 -  6.00   431.29   423.86
RUS 2000  633.77 -  0.69   635.81   632.53
DJ TRANS 3658.71 +  8.60  3663.30  3638.47
VIX        13.24 -  0.06    13.38    13.07
VXO (VIX-O)13.54 -  0.08    14.17    13.53
VXN        18.88 +  0.01    18.90    18.52 
Total Volume 4,214M
Total UpVol  1,760M
Total DnVol  2,379M
Total Adv  3162
Total Dcl  4175
52wk Highs  531
52wk Lows    44
TRIN       1.04
NAZTRIN    1.01
PUT/CALL   0.89
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Passing Time
by Jim Brown

The markets could not make up their mind today and spent
the entire dsession trading in a range and passing time 
while waiting for Friday. Funds planning on purchases with
the Microsoft dividend money likely spent the day adjusting
positions and dropping less desirable stocks. The result
was a terribly boring range bound day that ended right on
support across the board. 

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 
SPX Chart

 

There was a very confusing mix of economic news and stock
traders were unsure which reflected reality. The Chain 
Store Sales fell -1.5% for the week ended 11/27 and that
was the biggest drop since March 27th when the index fell
-1.9% for the week. Correct me if I am wrong here but
shouldn't Thanksgiving week be one of the strongest 
weeks of the year? We have already heard that Wal-Mart
barely posted a gain over last year due to a bad decision
about specially discounted items but some other retailers
did well. We heard from the retail sector that many stores
saw increases in the +4% range but it looks like those
chains were not a significant part of the survey. The 
ICSC-UBS Index is now resting near its late October low
for the year and casts doubt on the strength of the season.
ICSC lowered its sales forecast for November sales to 2.5%
to 3.0% from the 3.5% to 4% it had previously predicted. 

Also causing confusion was a drop in Consumer Confidence
to 90.5 from 92.9 and fourth consecutive monthly drop. 
The consensus estimates were calling for a significant
increase to 96.3. Obviously somebody forgot to tell the
consumers. The present conditions component was slightly
higher at 95.2 from 94.0 in October. The expectations
component was the culprit as it fell from 92.2 to 87.4.
Something weighed on the consumer consciousness and they
are becoming worried about the future. We did see oil
return to $50 and the market floundered after testing
the highs back on Nov-17th. There was also a round of
analysts suggesting any end of year rally would find
tough sledding once January appeared with much lower
growth estimates for 2005. There was a significant drop
in buying expectations with those planning on buying a
home falling to 2.4% from 3.6%, autos fell to 4.2% from
7.6% and major appliance purchasers fell to 24.2% from 
27.8%. The sum of those three components was the lowest
since the early 1990s and the auto component was the
lowest on record. Expectations of business conditions 
worsening and fewer jobs also rose. The headline number
at 90.5 was the lowest reading since March. The biggest
decline in confidence came from households with income 
under $35K per year.

The Chicago PMI fell to 65.2 from last months two decade
high at 68.5. No surprise there given the current state
of the economy. Just a normal pullback after a strong
spike. This may be seasonal more than a drop in the
business climate. Products made for the holidays had to
be in stores by Thanksgiving and that sent production 
to the October highs. In November production fell to 
68.4 from 79.7 and new orders dropped to 70.0 from 79.4.
Order backlogs fell to 52.7 from 60.9. Unbelievably
employment soared to 60.8 from 54.1. Production is
catching up with demand either from slowing demand or
increasing production. This was still a strong report
and could just be indicating that the production spike
for the holiday season is over.

The NY-NAPM rose again to 319.3 from last months 313.7
and continued its multi month march higher. The index 
is up +40.5% from this time last year. Manufacturing
components slowed but non manufacturing numbers rose.
The coming bonuses in the financial sector should keep
the bloom on the big NYC apple until early next year.
The yearlong increase in conditions should then moderate
given the potential change in the tax structure in 2005.  
 
Another upside surprise came from the GDP with a 3.9%
headline number and better than the previously reported
+3.7% growth. Conditions were mostly positive with a
better trade balance and increases in consumption. The
downside was a drop in corporate profits by -2.4% due
to hurricane damage and the lag time for insurance 
payments. Business investments also increased as they
tried to capture the accelerated depreciation on new
equipment purchased before year end. Inventories were
revised down sharply to $31.8B from $47.8B which was
previously reported. This should increase GDP in the
4Q as inventory levels are rebuilt. 

The end of year replacement cycle for computer equipment
is well underway as evidenced by Dell's gains in revenue
and earnings. HPQ also showed gains in the PC sector and
for both companies the gains are due in a large part by
the accelerated depreciation for equipment purchased this
year. With less than 30 days remaining in this economic
stimulant it was not surprising to see the Gartner Group
warn that several computer companies may go away soon.
Gartner said the accelerated depreciation was keeping
several in business and once that ceased any growth in
the PC sector was going to be limited to single digits
in 2005. According to Gartner we have seen six quarters
of double digit growth and that has kept those third
string players in the game. Dell, IBM and HPQ are not
expected to drop out of the business and Dell was the
preferred vendor for the long run. According to Gartner
Dell could sell computers for less than it cost others
to make them given their scale and buying power. NEC
and Toshiba were farther down the list and questionable
as future players. Gartner thought the next replacement
cycle would begin in 2008 when the new operating system
is due out from Microsoft. 

Wal-Mart continued to drop today with share prices back
at $52 and support from the summer. The David Faber, CNBC
bounce has been erased due to a miscalculation on the
Thanksgiving advertising plan. Seems Wal-Mart believed
that consumers would remember they always have low prices
on everything all the time without massive advertising.
Stores like Target, Mervyns, Kohls, Sears, etc, blanketed
mailboxes, papers and airwaves with advertised specials 
and were successful in attracting consumers for the big
holiday cycle. WMT saw only a minimal gain in sales for
the weekend and a major drop in market cap as a result
of their error. WMT has lost -$13 billion in market cap
over the last two days but they assured investors they 
will rectify the situation very quickly. My guess is the
sleeping lion is no longer sleeping and will be roaring
and advertised specials will be appearing everywhere over
the next five weeks. I hope Target and Kmart enjoyed their
weekend because the next five weeks could be a lot tougher.
WMT can afford to spend more on advertising than most other 
retailers have in weekend sales. WMT at $50 sounds like
a buying opportunity to me. 

Tomorrow will be the debut of the QQQ on the Nasdaq as
the QQQQ. The AMEX will continue to trade the QQQ but
on an unlisted basis and volume is likely to be minimal.
The QQQ/QQQQ is the most actively traded ETF in the world
with more than 100 million shares traded each day. 

The QQQ is not the only major change this week. The SOX
will have its first major makeover in two years with the
addition of three stocks and the removal of two. The SOX
index will drop MOT and LSI. Motorola is being dropped
because they spun off their chip division into Freescale
Semi (FSL) back in July. LSI is being dropped because
it no longer reflects leadership in the sector according
to the Philadelphia Exchange. Freescale (FSL), Infineon
(IFX) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are being added to
the SOX. The changes will be made before the start of
trading on Friday. The SOX options are the eighth most
traded index options for 2004.  

After the bell today NVLS gave investors their mid
quarter update saying that earnings would be in the upper
half of their projected range. They projected earnings in
the 24-26 cent range and analysts had only projected 21
cents. They also said the business climate remained 
sluggish but they saw a strong sell through until year
end. They are hoping consumer-buying trends will be
strong enough to prompt a new wave of component orders
in 2005 that result in new equipment from NVLS. Sounds
like a strong rendition of "wishing and hoping" by the
NVLS chorus. 

PHG announced on Tuesday that they were cutting their
2005 estimates for global chip growth to ZERO from +5%.
They also said they had shipped more than one billion
mobile displays and should complete their second billion
within six years. They are the leading supplier of cell
phone screens and they expect volume to double in value
and volume over the next four years. 

Gold prices hit a high of $456 today and just below the
$457 high set on Monday. While the weak dollar may be
a motivating force the real reason is the $1.5 billion
in new demand to back the GLD ETF. Since the fund is
backed by the metal they must buy gold for every share
that is purchased. This is new demand that did not
previously exist and is taking supplies out of the 
circulation pipeline. Since this gold will not be
used for anything but collateral it will not reappear
on the market unless the new gold bugs begin dumping
those GLD shares. This has driven the price from $425
to over $455 in the last three weeks. Add in the weak
dollar and you have 18 year highs. 

November is over and despite any concerted month end
buying the indexes had a spectacular month. The Russell
rose +8.5%, Nasdaq +6.2%, S&P Midcap +5.8%, Transports
+4.6% and of course the S&P rounding out the list at 
+3.9%. The Dow squeaked in with a +4% gain and the
Wilshire only slightly better at +4.6%. Considering
the weakness since Nov-18th it is surprising the indexes
did as well as they did. The SOX tried to make a run for
negative territory but found support for a +2.9% gain
once the smoke cleared.

Those positive numbers above are the probable reason
for the negative numbers we have seen for the last week
or so. The Thanksgiving rally was very minimal and funds
appeared to be taking the first two days this week as
an opportunity to lighten up on those stocks they did
not want to take into year end. Profits are not profits
until they are sold and booked. This is a hurdle week
for economics and with the Intel update on Thursday
night there is plenty of suspense. We have a heavy
economic schedule ahead with the ISM on Wednesday 
leading the list. The November Jobs report is due out
Friday morning only a few hours after Intel confesses.
Add in ten other economic reports between tonight and
Friday morning and there is ample reason to lighten the
load ahead of the Microsoft dividend payable on Thursday.
TrimTabs is now estimating that $22B to $25B will be put
back into stocks over the week beginning on Friday. This
is a huge amount of liquidity and should float the markets
for at least two weeks. I personally believe funds are
adjusting positions this week to prepare for the liquidity
boom. Given the risk from Intel and Jobs I doubt we will
see any major gains until Friday or possibly even Monday
of next week. Of course if early buyers begin to appear 
the race could start sooner than expected.  

That adjustment knocked about -50 points off the Dow
today and closed it right on support that has held since
11/22 at 10430. While this would appear to be a critical
level we could easily see a dip to 10370 and stronger
support with no damage to the long term uptrend. In
fact another dip lower would be welcomed by those buyers
wanting one last entry point before Friday. 

The Nasdaq has been much stronger than the Dow and
held the 2100 level once again with only a minor -2
point break at the close. The Nasdaq is holding the
high ground despite the SOX weakness from the impending
Intel update. The positive NVLS news tonight could help
support the SOX and in turn hold up the Nasdaq. The
Nasdaq has plenty of decent support between 2060-2100
and is not in danger unless we have a real buyer revolt. 

The SPX is also holding on support at 1175 with stronger
support at 1170 and 1165. A worst-case scenario would be
for the SPX to drop back to 1165 to clear the stops and
then rebound into the liquidity event. I would still be
a dip buyer above 1165. 

My plan for the rest of the week is to try to remain
long over SPX 1165 and wait for the cash to begin flowing.
If fund managers simply pocket the cash for a rainy day
there could be a lot of bulls headed for slaughter. I
don't expect this because find managers need to use that
money to prop up the market and guarantee returns into 
the year end. Once we get to January earnings it could
be a very different scenario but we will worry about 
that once the gift wrap hits the trash and the Christmas
trees hit the curb. Grab some Maalox and continue buying
the dips over SPX 1165. 

If you have not registered the end of year renewal 
special this would be a good time to check it out!
Bonuses are shipped in the order they are received.

Buy the dips until the trend changes. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Avon Products - AVP - close: 37.54 change: -0.86 

WHAT TO WATCH: Entry point alert!  The oversold bounce from the 
early November breakdown has failed.  Now AVP is being sold on 
any signs of strength.  The bearish consolidation should produce 
a breakdown under support at $37.50 soon.  Use a drop under 
$37.50 as an entry point.  We would use a stop loss just over the 
$39.00 mark.  The first level of support should be $35.00 but the 
bearish P&F chart points toward $29.




---

Gerdau Sa - GGB - close: 18.20 change: +1.04

WHAT TO WATCH: Several steel-related stocks soared higher today 
without any specific news.  Odds are it's a reaction to the 
falling dollar and concerns over inflation, etc. unless there was 
news of a merger/acquisition in the industry that we couldn't 
find news on.  Whatever the case we like the very strong volume 
behind the multi-day ramp up in shares of this Brazilian steel 
producer.  Today's breakout over resistance at $18.00 looks like 
a momentum trader's entry point.  The P&F chart points to a long-
term target at $28.




---

Intuit Inc - INTU - close: 41.84 change: -0.81

WHAT TO WATCH: Could this be another bearish entry point?  We 
strongly considered adding INTU to the play list tonight as a 
short candidate.  Shares have produced a rounded top over the 
last three months and now the selling has pushed INTU through 
support at $42.00 and its 100-dma and 200-dma.  We would probably 
target a drop toward the $39-38 region. 




---

Natl Semiconductor - NSM - close: 15.46 change: -0.44

WHAT TO WATCH: NSM has been trying to breakout over the $17.00 
region and its exponential 200-dma for weeks.  It looks like the 
last failed rally was the trick.  Now with the SOX slipping lower 
shares of NSM have broken their trend of higher lows.  This looks 
like a bearish entry point to short the stock with a target in 
the $14.00 range if not lower.  The risk here is the Intel mid-
quarter update on Thursday night.  Positive comments could turn 
the sector around.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

EXM $36.32 +5.15 - Wow!  We didn't expect the rally to be so 
quick or so sharp.  The next levels of resistance are $37.50 and 
$40.00.

FDO $29.30 -1.27 - Today's breakdown under the $30.00 level and 
its 200-dma's looks pretty negative.  Volume was strong.

UTSI $19.54 +0.82 - Watch UTSI for a breakout over the $20.00 
level. 


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Good Time for a Dip.
- J. Brown

After an incredible run in the markets from late October through 
mid-November stocks are finally beginning to see some profit 
taking.  We've been warning about a possible consolidation for a 
couple of weeks but the best (or worst) stocks could do was trade 
sideways.  Today the technical indicators on the major indices 
have finally turned into bearish signals.  Short-term traders 
looking at gains over the past month should strongly consider 
doing some profit taking of their own.   Yet don't run far.  
We're not expecting the pull back to be very deep.  

If you're a Fibonnaci trader watch the Industrials for a dip back 
toward 10,250.  This would be a 38.2% retracement of its October-
November run.  Coincidentally this is also just above its simple 
200-dma, which should offer technical support.  The rest of the 
major indices look equally vulnerable to some profit taking.  
After all the month of November saw the Industrials gain 4%, the 
S&P 500 added 3.9% and the NASDAQ Composite soared for a 6.2% 
gain.  

A dip this week with the host of economic reports would make 
sense.  Disappointing or not traders could use the economic news 
as an excuse to sell.  They certainly have their pick of reports 
to blame.  Wednesday brings the ISM index, Fed's Biege book, 
construction spending, Personal Income and spending, Auto and 
truck sales.  Thursday will bring the factor orders.  Friday 
hosts the November jobs report, the ISM services index and more!  
On top of all the economic news we have the Intel mid-quarter 
update to watch on Thursday evening.  Confidence is not running 
high as Intel and many in the semiconductor sector are heading 
south.  

Fortunately, as Jim mentioned in the wrap tonight, analysts 
expect a large chunk of the multi-billion dollar Microsoft cash 
dividend to find its way back into stocks.  The dividend is paid 
late this week so we can probably expect all this money to hit 
stocks next week just in time for a Santa Claus rally.  



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10428

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10499
 50-dma: 10188 
200-dma: 10240 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1173

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1178
 50-dma: 1138
200-dma: 1122



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1571

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1569
 50-dma: 1483
200-dma: 1442



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.24 -0.06
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.54 +0.08
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 18.84 +0.01 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.89        597,404       529,019
Equity Only    0.69        480,231       331,968
OEX            0.71         18,722        13,328
QQQ            4.52         15,970        72,181


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          74.2    + 0.7   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    74.0    - 1     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       72.4    - 0.6   Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       72.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.82
10-dma: 0.97 
21-dma: 0.95
55-dma: 1.10


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1244      1365
Decliners    1595      1671

New Highs     175       143
New Lows        8         7

Up Volume    825M      826M
Down Vol.   1101M     1029M

Total Vol.  1957M     1883M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/23/04


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials are growing more bearish despite upping both their
long and short positions.  As usual the small traders are headed
the opposite direction by growing more bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)
11/23/04      462,408   491,384   (28,976)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%
11/23/04      171,192   150,606    20,586     6.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials have been consistently bearish on the e-minis
but they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish bias.
Small traders remain staunchly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)
11/23/04      412,724   849,091   (436,367)  (34.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367)  - 11/23/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%
11/23/04      400,995     62,080   338,915    73.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

No change here.  Commercials remain net bullish.  Small
traders remain net bearish, although they've reached a new 
yearly high in their bearish attitudes. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%
11/23/04       58,159     34,104    24,055   26.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)
11/23/04       11,153    39,712   (28,559)  (56.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (28,559) - 11/23/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Both professional traders and small traders are growing
more bearish on the Industrials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
11/23/04       22,527    25,537   (3,010)     (6.2%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)
11/23/04        5,833     8,299   (2,466)   (17.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 11-30-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  TSCO

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  Closed Bearish Plays: ASKJ

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: ZEUS
  
Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

TSCO - non-tech short -
  Hang on!  TSCO fell another 3.3 percent to drop
  beneath support at the $32.00 level.  Our target
  has been the $30-31 range.  TSCO is close.  Readers
  can prepare to exit.


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 25.84 change: +0.69 stop: 25.65     

ASKJ bucked the overall down draft in the market today with a 2.7 
percent gain.  The rally appears to have been fueled by a positive 
presentation at the CSFB conference today.  The move quickly pushed 
ASKJ up and through our stop loss at $25.65. 

Picked on November 10 at $24.10 
Gain since picked:       + 1.74
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.7 million 




==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 27.00 chg: +3.73 stop: 18.99     

ZEUS has exceeded our expectations.  The current rally exploded 
higher with a huge 16 percent run on extremely strong volume more 
than four times the average.  The strange thing is that we can't 
find any news on the stock's move.  Normally, we'd be inclined to 
just tighten our stop and let ZEUS run since shares look poised to 
keep climbing.  The next resistance level should be the $30 region.  
However, since our initial target was the $25 region we're going to 
exit now and not get greedy.

Picked on November 14 at $20.65 
Gain since picked:       + 6.35
Earnings Date          10/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       303 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FNM     Fannie Mae                 68.62     +0.67
FRE     Freddie Mac                67.97     +0.98
PBR     Petroleo Brasileiro        38.10     +1.43
BR      Burlington Resources       46.30     +0.80
CAH     Cardinal Health            52.39     +0.74
CSC     Computer Sciences          54.16     +0.95

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

GGB     Gerdau Sa (ADS)            18.25     +1.09
RHAT    Red Hat Inc                14.48     +1.06
NKTR    Nektar Therapeutics        18.48     +3.39
GSIC    GSI Commerce Inc           15.13     +1.51
WPTE    WPT Enterprises            14.50     +2.27
PACT    Pacificnet Inc             11.39     +1.77

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
LLL     L-3 Communications          74.51     +1.55
RE      Everest Re Group            84.26     +1.91
WRI     Weingarten Realty           40.90     +2.71
SFD     Smithfield Foods            29.15     +1.25
PRE     Partnerre Ltd               61.30     +1.04
RKY     Adolph Coors                74.92     +1.83
BOW     Bowater Inc                 40.56     +1.05

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          74.73     -1.31
AGN     Allergen Inc               73.67     -3.10
RSH     Radioshack                 31.40     -2.08
FDO     Family Dollar Stores       29.28     -1.29
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            38.29     -1.71
RSAS    RSA Security               21.08     -2.25
PHRM    Pharmion Corp              42.34     -2.41
SILI    Siliconix Inc              36.99     -2.64
ELOS    Syneron Medical            27.05     -10.15

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

TXU     TXU Corp                   62.90     -2.30
UTIW    UTI Worldwide              68.93     -2.44
UFCS    United Fire & Casualty     66.60     -1.39
LCAV    LCA-Vision                 32.80     -1.78
SO      The Southern Co            32.85     -0.58
LEA     Lear Corp                  57.96     -0.93

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