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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/02/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-02-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Hedge the News
Watch List:        Movies to Airlines and more
Market Sentiment:  Mixed Blessing

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      12-02-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10585.12 -  5.10 10629.16 10544.77 2.23 bln 1219/2021
NASDAQ   2143.57 +  5.30  2156.14  2131.65 2.43 bln 1648/1482
S&P 100   566.45 +  0.24   568.93   564.57   Totals 2867/3503
S&P 500  1190.33 -  1.04  1194.81  1186.66 
SOX       438.71 -  1.40   446.96   437.26
RUS 2000  642.51 -  1.17   644.57   639.72
DJ TRANS 3729.94 -  6.90  3748.05  3717.31
VIX        12.98 +  0.01    13.04    12.72
VXO (VIX-O)13.91 +  0.45    14.21    13.58
VXN        18.64 +  0.40    18.65    17.85 
Total Volume 4,960M
Total UpVol  2,474M
Total DnVol  2,420M
Total Adv  3272
Total Dcl  4003
52wk Highs  663
52wk Lows    41
TRIN       0.78
NAZTRIN    0.42
PUT/CALL   0.84
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Hedge the News
by Jim Brown

After a blowout on Wednesday the markets traded sideways 
on Thursday as dividend cash began to hit traders accounts.
On a day that most analysts expected to see a rising market
it did make some new highs but closed almost exactly flat.
The reason according to chatter on the floor was unwinding
futures trades. It appears some funds hedged against the 
dividend bounce by going long futures on Wednesday. With
the leverage futures provides they were able to capture
the initial bounce with cash on hand and not have to wait
for today's dividend deposit. Once the Microsoft cash begin
to hit accounts those trades were unwound and stocks bought
to replace them. This produced a huge volume spike with 
nearly the Dow, Nasdaq, SPX, RUT and SOX all closing within 
five points of the flat line.

Dow Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 


The flat day came on another session of imploding oil and
ahead of the Intel update and the Jobs report. I had not
expected any major moves until Friday or even Monday and
the Wednesday bounce had me scratching my head. The futures
swap explains it completely and puts us back to the Fri/Mon
bullish scenario assuming Intel and Jobs were positive.

After the bell Intel surprised the street and upgraded
guidance to $9.3B to $9.5B compared to prior estimates of
$8.6B to $9.2B. Intel soared to $24.72 and a +2 point gain
from the close and trading was heavy in after hours. The
initial bounce has not faded appreciably with the price
still holding $24.35 as I type this. S&P futures jumped
+5 to 1196 and a new high for the year. Nasdaq futures
jumped +17 points to 1631 on strength in the entire chip
sector in late trading. This appears to be good news for
tomorrow but we still do not know how many more futures
trades need to be flattened by funds. We also have the
Jobs report still hovering over our head tonight. We are
not out of the woods yet. 

Economically it was another day of mixed blessings with
Jobless Claims spiking again to 349,000 and a gain of
+25,000 over last week. Most analysts quickly discounted
the jump in claims as a seasonal adjustment problem for
Thanksgiving week. However, even though this weeks Jobless
Claims have no bearing on the Jobs Report tomorrow there
was some initial caution when it was announced. We will
see tomorrow if the Jobs paints the same picture or will
continue in creation mode. 

According to the Monster Employment Index released this
morning the Jobs report will be strong. The index hit an
all time high at 117 compared to 88 one year ago today. 
50% of the sectors tracked posted gains for the month with
the majority of the gains going to high paying jobs in the
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services and Utilities
sectors. Jobs increased in all nine regions.

The Chain Store Sales for November came in at +1.7% compared
to the estimates for +4.0%. We already knew they were going
to be weak but the depth of the weakness was astounding.
60% of retail stores posted sales below prior estimates.
This is a major blow to the retail sector and suggests
the discounts are going to be heavy over the next four
weeks. Online sales soared and according to some analysts
it took nearly 3% out of store sales. This seems extreme
to me but there are a lot of people not heading to the
mall this year. Analysts claim retail trends have changed
after the last three years and shoppers are going to wait
until the last minute to take advantage of the deep cuts
in prices. With Wal-Mart barely over the flat line for
November it suggests just how competitive those discounts
will be for the rest of the season. Wal-Mart announced
today that they were going to blast consumers with a very
strong advertising campaign beginning this weekend. High
gasoline prices and record heating oil prices have also 
combined to keep consumers out of stores. 

Factory Orders increased significantly over last month 
with a headline number at +0.5% and well over estimates
of +0.2%. Last months number was also revised higher.
The strongest component was nondurable goods which rose
+2.4% for the month. New orders for Computers and 
electronics fell -6.5% after blowouts the prior two 
months at +13.2% and +6.0%. Orders for computers alone
fell -16.1% for the month. 

The horrible drop in computer orders and shipments in 
the Factory Order report was probably one of the biggest
weights on the market today. With the Intel update coming
after the close this order flow report was seen as a
strong potential for an Intel warning instead of higher
guidance. This could have helped produce a lot of the
after hours bounce as shorts expecting the worst were
clobbered. 

For Friday we have the Jobs Report at 8:30 and the ISM
Services Index at 10:00. The key is the Jobs report and
estimates were climbing all day. The official consensus
is still +200,000 but the whisper numbers are hovering
around +300K. Last month showed a gain of +337,000 jobs.
I am leaning toward last month being an anomaly that was
skewed by the hurricanes. I would love to see another big
jobs gain but I would be just as happy with hitting the
consensus at 200K. Anything over 100K will probably be
met with market relief in light of the Intel guidance. 

The big story today was not really the Microsoft dividend
but the falling oil prices. For three consecutive days we
have seen major selling in crude and the low for the day
at $42.50 was -8.00 below Tuesday's high at $50.45. This
is nearly -16% off the Tuesday high and a -23% drop from
the October highs. For a stock this would be a huge move.
For a commodity like oil it is the 100-year flood. Better
yet it is the collapse of a bubble not seen in a decade.
Everyone knew it would end and could end badly and it
could hardly have ended worse. The drop today took us
back to September levels and very near support at $42.00.

With the flush of speculators in the oil futures it should
have pushed even more money back into equities but it may
not appear until tomorrow or Monday. Like any equity long
play that suddenly fell out of the sky we are at levels
where bulls have appeared before. While some cash may have
been pushed into equities there is likely another contingent
that see the oil drop as a buying opportunity. 

Another problem caused by the oil drop could be an aggressive
Fed. Yes, high oil was a depressant for the economy and could
have kept the Fed on relative hold. With the bottom falling
out of the dollar and oil at the same time the stimulus to
the economy could be huge if it holds. The Fed could actually
be forced to raise rates at a faster pace to constrain the
inflation monster. Interest rates on the Ten-year Treasury
have soared to the highest level in four months at 4.4% on
fears the Fed will charge ahead. This also kept traders on
the sideline trying to decide what the future holds. Should
oil bounce on Friday it could actually be positive for the
equity market. It is a crazy world of conflicting factors 
for the market this week. Add to that the potential for 
Japan/Europe joint currency interventions to hold up our 
dollar and it gets even more crazy. 

Crude Oil

 
SPX Chart – daily

 
SPX Chart - 60 min

 


Before the impact of unwinding futures trades hit the market
the Dow managed to hit a new eight month high at 10629. The
retracement selling only managed to push the index back to 
close at 10585 and left the Dow in prime launch pad territory.
The high for the year is 10753 and that could easily be hit
again over the next two trading days if the current sentiment
holds. Rising support is currently 10560 and +20 points 
higher than Wednesday. There is an underlying bid despite
how the indexes finished the day. 

The Nasdaq is even stronger and while it closed only a 
little higher it did make a strong intraday break to higher
ground. The Compx hit 2156 and +3 points over the high for
the year at 2153 set back in January. Unfortunately this is
also very strong resistance and for the first test we simply 
did not have the power to push through today. The overnight
futures suggest we will get another chance at tomorrows open.

The SPX broke out to nearly 1195 but over 1190 it ran into
major selling pressure and returned to that level at the 
close. Overnight the S&P futures are trading back at 1196
and it appears we could test 1200 on the SPX at the open.
There is strong round number resistance at 1200 as well as
two different uptrend resistance lines converging. Earlier
in the week I was expecting a break of that 1200 level with
a positive Intel/Jobs combination but tonight I am not so
sure. I still believe we will break it but maybe not until
next week. 

For Friday it is all about Jobs and then it depends on 
how funds decide to spend their dividend money. Despite
the nearly five billion shares traded today there is still
a lot of cash that has not made it back into the market. 
Friday could be a disappointment or a major explosion but
I would doubt we will see a big drop. Watch SPX 1200 for 
a directional clue and try not to buy the top. 
  
Sell too soon! 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Blockbuster Inc - BBI - close: 9.21 change: +0.28

WHAT TO WATCH: An upgrade to a "long-term buy" pushed BBI to a 
3.13 percent gain on Thursday.  Volume was a little less than 
impressive but the move over $9.00 was positive.  BBI has now 
broken above the bottom of its gap down, which is typically 
resistance. Patient traders may want to consider a "fill the gap" 
strategy.  The first hurdle will be BBI's 100-dma directly 
overhead.




---

British Airways - BAB - close: 45.10 change: +0.76

WHAT TO WATCH: The XAL airline index was today's best sector 
performer with a 3.5 percent rally.  BAB is not a component of 
the XAL but it too is trading higher as investors snap up airline 
stocks in the face of sharp oil price weakness.  Watch for BAB to 
trade over its simple 200-dma near $45.00. 




---

Black Box Corp - BBOX - close: 45.05 change: +1.09

WHAT TO WATCH: The NWX networking index looks ready to surge 
higher after two weeks of consolidation and BBOX could help lead 
the way.  Shares of BBOX have been breaking out the last two 
sessions with Thursday's 2.4 percent gain pushing shares above 
its simple 200-dma and the $45.00 mark.  The P&F chart is bullish 
with a $64 target.  We see some resistance at $47.50.




---

Brooks Automation - BRKS - close: 17.11 change: +1.11

WHAT TO WATCH: We can't find any stock-specific news but shares 
of BRKS, a semiconductor company, soared 6.9 percent on very 
heavy volume.  The move pushed BRKS through resistance at $16.00 
and its simple and exponential 200-dma's.  Given the Intel 
guidance tonight BRKS could see some follow through tomorrow. The 
P&F chart shows a similar breakout with a $21 target.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

GTK $25.20 +0.84 - GTK has been consolidating under its simple 
200-dma for weeks.  Watch for the move over $25.50 or wait for it 
to fill the gap over $26.00.

ATVI $16.56 +0.58 - Bulls can watch ATVI to hit a new all-time 
high over $17.00.

CSCO $19.20 +0.05 - CSCO has been testing resistance at its 
declining 100-dma for the past month.  

DSPG $23.76 +1.09 - After two weeks of consolidating DSPG is 
breaking out over resistance at $23.00 and its simple 200-dma.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Mixed Blessing
- J. Brown

Thursday proved to be a day of mixed blessings.  There was no 
follow through on Wednesday's big rally even as oil lost another 
4.3 percent to break down under the $45 a barrel level and its 
simple 100-dma.  The weekly initial jobless claims were higher 
than expected but the monster job numbers were positive.  Overall 
the market seems cautiously optimistic for tomorrow's November 
non-farm payrolls (jobs) report.  

You wouldn't know it from the closing numbers but the NASDAQ 
managed to hit new three-year highs.  The S&P 500 tagged another 
three-year high and the Dow Transports hit another five-year high 
- at least on an intraday basis.  The market was mixed with 
technology out performing followed by biotech, drugs and defense.  
The real winners today were the airlines as traders snapped up 
shares in the face of oil's weakness.  

Technically the market is still very overbought.  The volatility 
indices remain in bearish reversal territory and the ARMS index 
or TRIN moving averages are in bearish reversal range as well.  
Yet Intel's positive mid-quarter update tonight after the bell is 
expected to give the semiconductor stocks a boost tomorrow.  This 
in turn should give techs in general a lift.  That is assuming we 
don't have any massively negative economic numbers or job misses.  

The trend is still your friend but it may be time to rotate out 
of oil stocks at least short term.  



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10585

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10513
 50-dma: 10204 
200-dma: 10239 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1190

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1180
 50-dma: 1141
200-dma: 1122



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1613

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1579
 50-dma: 1491
200-dma: 1443



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.98 +0.01
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.91 +0.45
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 18.64 +0.40 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.84      1,043,161       872,938
Equity Only    0.69        882,049       611,484
OEX            0.71         19,801        30,427
QQQ*            --             --            -- 

*Symbol changed to QQQQ today and the CBOE has not updated their
 systems yet.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          75.6    + 1.4   Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    76.0    + 2     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       73.8    + 1.4   Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       74.0    + 2     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.87
10-dma: 0.87 
21-dma: 0.90
55-dma: 1.07


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1094      1592
Decliners    1715      1437

New Highs     215       162
New Lows       10        13

Up Volume    921M     1435M
Down Vol.   1276M      963M

Total Vol.  2240M     2418M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/23/04


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercials are growing more bearish despite upping both their
long and short positions.  As usual the small traders are headed
the opposite direction by growing more bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/02/04      446,192   441,676   ( 4,516)   (0.4%)
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)
11/23/04      462,408   491,384   (28,976)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04      136,290   132,040     4,250     1.5%
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%
11/23/04      171,192   150,606    20,586     6.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials have been consistently bearish on the e-minis
but they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish bias.
Small traders remain staunchly net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
11/02/04      307,053   580,081   (273,028)  (30.7%)
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)
11/23/04      412,724   849,091   (436,367)  (34.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367)  - 11/23/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04      395,029     63,746   331,283    72.2%
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%
11/23/04      400,995     62,080   338,915    73.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

No change here.  Commercials remain net bullish.  Small
traders remain net bearish, although they've reached a new 
yearly high in their bearish attitudes. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
11/02/04       53,002     31,231    21,771   25.0%
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%
11/23/04       58,159     34,104    24,055   26.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04        8,886    36,621   (27,735)  (61.3%)
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)
11/23/04       11,153    39,712   (28,559)  (56.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (28,559) - 11/23/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Both professional traders and small traders are growing
more bearish on the Industrials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/02/04       25,319    24,261    1,058       2.0%
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
11/23/04       22,527    25,537   (3,010)     (6.2%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/02/04        7,952     6,306    1,261      8.8%
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)
11/23/04        5,833     8,299   (2,466)   (17.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-02-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments: ONXX  

Stock Splits
  Announcements: None     

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: CHK, CVX, DNR, PCU, RIG
  Closed Bearish Plays: TSCO

High Risk/Reward
  Closed Bullish Plays: VLCCF
  
Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

ONXX - non-tech long -
  ONXX turned in a strong day with a 4 percent
  rally from the $30.00 level.  Shares are now at 
  new six-week highs.  


==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

None

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------


Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 16.64 change: -1.04 stop: 16.00

Ouch!  News out last night after the bell that CHK was pricing some 
$600 million in new debt did not combine well with a sell-off in 
oil-related stocks.  CHK fell 5.88 percent on very strong volume.  
Technicals have turned bearish and we've choosing to exit now even 
though CHK has not yet broken support at the $16.50 level.

Picked on November 12 at $17.21
Gain since picked:       - 0.57
Earnings Date          11/01/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 



---

ChevronTexaco - CVX - close: 52.48 change: -1.00 stop: 51.99

We have not been stopped out yet but the 12 percent sell-off in 
crude oil in the last three sessions has not been kind to oil 
stocks.  Traders are rotating out of the sector for fear that 
they'll lose some of their hefty gains over the last several days 
and months.  The OIX oil index has completely erased its late 
November gains.  Technicals for CVX have turned negative and volume 
has been very strong.  We're exiting now to minimize our losses.

Picked on November 26 at $55.15 
Gain since picked:       - 2.67
Earnings Date          10/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       4.8 million 



---

Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 27.01 chg: -0.89 stop: 24.99     

The sell-off in crude oil and oil stocks has hit shares of DNR as 
well.  We have not been stopped out and DNR was bouncing from 
support at the $26.00 level this afternoon.  Yet in spite of this 
strength we don't feel confident in the sector with crude oil under 
$45 a barrel and its simple 100-dma.  We remain long-term bullish 
on oil stocks but we could get a better entry point down the road.  
Watch DNR's 100-dma.  

Picked on November 22 at $27.51 
Gain since picked:       - 0.50
Earnings Date          10/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       366 thousand




---

Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 45.47 chg: -1.72 stop: 44.99     

We can't find any stock-specific news but shares of PCU sold off 
this morning on heavy volume to break support at the $45.00 mark.  
They did manage a bounce by the afternoon but we've been stopped 
out at $44.99.  Technicals have turned negative for PCU.  

Picked on November 14 at $47.90 
Gain since picked:       - 2.43
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       353 thousand



---

Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 37.68 change: -1.48 stop: 37.45     

The OSX oil services index has completely erased its late November 
gains in just the last few sessions.  We were expecting a dip in 
shares of RIG but not this steep.  The 12 percent sell-off in crude 
oil and its technical breakdown do not bode well short-term for the 
sector.  While RIG managed to bounce back above support at the 
$37.50 level we've been stopped out at $37.45. 

Picked on November 18 at $37.51
Gain since picked:       + 0.17
Earnings Date          10/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 


  

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------
 
Tractor Supply Co - TSCO - cls: 34.06 chg: +0.76 stop: 35.01     

We came so close to our target in the $31-30 range.  It's 
frustrating to be that close and have the stock reverse on us.  
It's even worse when we can't find a reason for it.  It seems like 
the financial media has been harping the last couple of days about 
how uninspiring the initial push into the holiday shopping season 
has been despite all the hopes prior to Thanksgiving.  Normally one 
would think this kind of negative attention would bring retail 
stocks lower.  Not so for TSCO.  The stock has inexplicably 
rallied.  We're choosing to exit now before we see the entire move 
down erased.  Technicals are turning bullish although the stock 
remains in its long-term downtrend.

Picked on November 07 at $35.68 
Gain since picked:       - 1.62
Earnings Date          10/11/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       422 thousand



==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
==================================================================


============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Knightsbridge Tankers - VLCCF - cls: 34.22 chg: -1.94 stop: 34.85

VLCCF is another victim of the oil-related sell-off.  The stock was 
looking pretty strong before crude oil imploded in the last two 
sessions.  Volume on VLCCF has been very high suggesting investors 
are rotating out to protect their profits over the last few months.  
We've been stopped out at $34.85.  

Picked on November 22 at $37.60 
Gain since picked:       + 0.51
Earnings Date          00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       307 thousand




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MRK     Merck & Co                 28.60     +0.88
JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          61.75     +0.56
WYE     Wyeth                      41.45     +0.82
KMB     Kimberly Clark             65.11     +1.57
CL      Colgate Palmolive          47.36     +0.64
COF     Capital One Financial      79.91     +0.61

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CNET    Cnet Networks              10.75     +1.01
CREAF   Creative Technology        14.97     +1.07
BID     Sotheby's Holding          17.38     +1.58
BRKS    Brooks Automation          17.11     +1.11
SBGI    Sinclair Broadcast          8.41     +1.04
FLSH    M-Systems Flash Disk       17.55     +1.10

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
AMGN    Amgen Inc                  62.94     +1.98
SBUX    Starbucks                  58.65     +1.10
NTAP    Network Appliance          33.73     +1.60
COH     Coach Inc                  52.65     +1.62
NTLI    NTL Inc                    71.71     +2.25
SEPR    Sepracor Inc               48.28     +3.12
WTFC    Wintrust Financial         63.02     +1.42

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SLB     Schlumberger               62.05     -1.58
NEM     Newmont Mining             45.87     -1.30
ABS     Albertson's Inc            24.20     -1.58
BTU     Peabody Energy             75.51     -5.49
ESV     Ensco Intl Inc             28.68     -1.24
ANN     Ann Taylor Stores          20.51     -1.78
VRNT    Verint Systems             38.26     -3.24
NRP     Natural Resource Partners  49.15     -4.05

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

ECA     Encana Corp                54.27     -1.97
IMO     Imperial Oil Ltd           59.65     -1.34
GRMN    Garmin Ltd                 55.37     -3.42
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch        44.90     -1.63
VPI     Vintage Petroleum          23.04     -1.10
CKH     Seacor Holdings            53.22     -2.53
IOC     Interoil Corp              35.55     -1.64
SMSC    Standard Microsystems      23.98     -1.02


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