PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 12-02-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Hedge the News Watch List: Movies to Airlines and more Market Sentiment: Mixed Blessing ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 12-02-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10585.12 - 5.10 10629.16 10544.77 2.23 bln 1219/2021 NASDAQ 2143.57 + 5.30 2156.14 2131.65 2.43 bln 1648/1482 S&P 100 566.45 + 0.24 568.93 564.57 Totals 2867/3503 S&P 500 1190.33 - 1.04 1194.81 1186.66 SOX 438.71 - 1.40 446.96 437.26 RUS 2000 642.51 - 1.17 644.57 639.72 DJ TRANS 3729.94 - 6.90 3748.05 3717.31 VIX 12.98 + 0.01 13.04 12.72 VXO (VIX-O)13.91 + 0.45 14.21 13.58 VXN 18.64 + 0.40 18.65 17.85 Total Volume 4,960M Total UpVol 2,474M Total DnVol 2,420M Total Adv 3272 Total Dcl 4003 52wk Highs 663 52wk Lows 41 TRIN 0.78 NAZTRIN 0.42 PUT/CALL 0.84 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Hedge the News by Jim Brown After a blowout on Wednesday the markets traded sideways on Thursday as dividend cash began to hit traders accounts. On a day that most analysts expected to see a rising market it did make some new highs but closed almost exactly flat. The reason according to chatter on the floor was unwinding futures trades. It appears some funds hedged against the dividend bounce by going long futures on Wednesday. With the leverage futures provides they were able to capture the initial bounce with cash on hand and not have to wait for today's dividend deposit. Once the Microsoft cash begin to hit accounts those trades were unwound and stocks bought to replace them. This produced a huge volume spike with nearly the Dow, Nasdaq, SPX, RUT and SOX all closing within five points of the flat line. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart The flat day came on another session of imploding oil and ahead of the Intel update and the Jobs report. I had not expected any major moves until Friday or even Monday and the Wednesday bounce had me scratching my head. The futures swap explains it completely and puts us back to the Fri/Mon bullish scenario assuming Intel and Jobs were positive. After the bell Intel surprised the street and upgraded guidance to $9.3B to $9.5B compared to prior estimates of $8.6B to $9.2B. Intel soared to $24.72 and a +2 point gain from the close and trading was heavy in after hours. The initial bounce has not faded appreciably with the price still holding $24.35 as I type this. S&P futures jumped +5 to 1196 and a new high for the year. Nasdaq futures jumped +17 points to 1631 on strength in the entire chip sector in late trading. This appears to be good news for tomorrow but we still do not know how many more futures trades need to be flattened by funds. We also have the Jobs report still hovering over our head tonight. We are not out of the woods yet. Economically it was another day of mixed blessings with Jobless Claims spiking again to 349,000 and a gain of +25,000 over last week. Most analysts quickly discounted the jump in claims as a seasonal adjustment problem for Thanksgiving week. However, even though this weeks Jobless Claims have no bearing on the Jobs Report tomorrow there was some initial caution when it was announced. We will see tomorrow if the Jobs paints the same picture or will continue in creation mode. According to the Monster Employment Index released this morning the Jobs report will be strong. The index hit an all time high at 117 compared to 88 one year ago today. 50% of the sectors tracked posted gains for the month with the majority of the gains going to high paying jobs in the Professional, Scientific, Technical Services and Utilities sectors. Jobs increased in all nine regions. The Chain Store Sales for November came in at +1.7% compared to the estimates for +4.0%. We already knew they were going to be weak but the depth of the weakness was astounding. 60% of retail stores posted sales below prior estimates. This is a major blow to the retail sector and suggests the discounts are going to be heavy over the next four weeks. Online sales soared and according to some analysts it took nearly 3% out of store sales. This seems extreme to me but there are a lot of people not heading to the mall this year. Analysts claim retail trends have changed after the last three years and shoppers are going to wait until the last minute to take advantage of the deep cuts in prices. With Wal-Mart barely over the flat line for November it suggests just how competitive those discounts will be for the rest of the season. Wal-Mart announced today that they were going to blast consumers with a very strong advertising campaign beginning this weekend. High gasoline prices and record heating oil prices have also combined to keep consumers out of stores. Factory Orders increased significantly over last month with a headline number at +0.5% and well over estimates of +0.2%. Last months number was also revised higher. The strongest component was nondurable goods which rose +2.4% for the month. New orders for Computers and electronics fell -6.5% after blowouts the prior two months at +13.2% and +6.0%. Orders for computers alone fell -16.1% for the month. The horrible drop in computer orders and shipments in the Factory Order report was probably one of the biggest weights on the market today. With the Intel update coming after the close this order flow report was seen as a strong potential for an Intel warning instead of higher guidance. This could have helped produce a lot of the after hours bounce as shorts expecting the worst were clobbered. For Friday we have the Jobs Report at 8:30 and the ISM Services Index at 10:00. The key is the Jobs report and estimates were climbing all day. The official consensus is still +200,000 but the whisper numbers are hovering around +300K. Last month showed a gain of +337,000 jobs. I am leaning toward last month being an anomaly that was skewed by the hurricanes. I would love to see another big jobs gain but I would be just as happy with hitting the consensus at 200K. Anything over 100K will probably be met with market relief in light of the Intel guidance. The big story today was not really the Microsoft dividend but the falling oil prices. For three consecutive days we have seen major selling in crude and the low for the day at $42.50 was -8.00 below Tuesday's high at $50.45. This is nearly -16% off the Tuesday high and a -23% drop from the October highs. For a stock this would be a huge move. For a commodity like oil it is the 100-year flood. Better yet it is the collapse of a bubble not seen in a decade. Everyone knew it would end and could end badly and it could hardly have ended worse. The drop today took us back to September levels and very near support at $42.00. With the flush of speculators in the oil futures it should have pushed even more money back into equities but it may not appear until tomorrow or Monday. Like any equity long play that suddenly fell out of the sky we are at levels where bulls have appeared before. While some cash may have been pushed into equities there is likely another contingent that see the oil drop as a buying opportunity. Another problem caused by the oil drop could be an aggressive Fed. Yes, high oil was a depressant for the economy and could have kept the Fed on relative hold. With the bottom falling out of the dollar and oil at the same time the stimulus to the economy could be huge if it holds. The Fed could actually be forced to raise rates at a faster pace to constrain the inflation monster. Interest rates on the Ten-year Treasury have soared to the highest level in four months at 4.4% on fears the Fed will charge ahead. This also kept traders on the sideline trying to decide what the future holds. Should oil bounce on Friday it could actually be positive for the equity market. It is a crazy world of conflicting factors for the market this week. Add to that the potential for Japan/Europe joint currency interventions to hold up our dollar and it gets even more crazy. Crude Oil SPX Chart – daily SPX Chart - 60 min Before the impact of unwinding futures trades hit the market the Dow managed to hit a new eight month high at 10629. The retracement selling only managed to push the index back to close at 10585 and left the Dow in prime launch pad territory. The high for the year is 10753 and that could easily be hit again over the next two trading days if the current sentiment holds. Rising support is currently 10560 and +20 points higher than Wednesday. There is an underlying bid despite how the indexes finished the day. The Nasdaq is even stronger and while it closed only a little higher it did make a strong intraday break to higher ground. The Compx hit 2156 and +3 points over the high for the year at 2153 set back in January. Unfortunately this is also very strong resistance and for the first test we simply did not have the power to push through today. The overnight futures suggest we will get another chance at tomorrows open. The SPX broke out to nearly 1195 but over 1190 it ran into major selling pressure and returned to that level at the close. Overnight the S&P futures are trading back at 1196 and it appears we could test 1200 on the SPX at the open. There is strong round number resistance at 1200 as well as two different uptrend resistance lines converging. Earlier in the week I was expecting a break of that 1200 level with a positive Intel/Jobs combination but tonight I am not so sure. I still believe we will break it but maybe not until next week. For Friday it is all about Jobs and then it depends on how funds decide to spend their dividend money. Despite the nearly five billion shares traded today there is still a lot of cash that has not made it back into the market. Friday could be a disappointment or a major explosion but I would doubt we will see a big drop. Watch SPX 1200 for a directional clue and try not to buy the top. Sell too soon! Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Blockbuster Inc - BBI - close: 9.21 change: +0.28 WHAT TO WATCH: An upgrade to a "long-term buy" pushed BBI to a 3.13 percent gain on Thursday. Volume was a little less than impressive but the move over $9.00 was positive. BBI has now broken above the bottom of its gap down, which is typically resistance. Patient traders may want to consider a "fill the gap" strategy. The first hurdle will be BBI's 100-dma directly overhead. --- British Airways - BAB - close: 45.10 change: +0.76 WHAT TO WATCH: The XAL airline index was today's best sector performer with a 3.5 percent rally. BAB is not a component of the XAL but it too is trading higher as investors snap up airline stocks in the face of sharp oil price weakness. Watch for BAB to trade over its simple 200-dma near $45.00. --- Black Box Corp - BBOX - close: 45.05 change: +1.09 WHAT TO WATCH: The NWX networking index looks ready to surge higher after two weeks of consolidation and BBOX could help lead the way. Shares of BBOX have been breaking out the last two sessions with Thursday's 2.4 percent gain pushing shares above its simple 200-dma and the $45.00 mark. The P&F chart is bullish with a $64 target. We see some resistance at $47.50. --- Brooks Automation - BRKS - close: 17.11 change: +1.11 WHAT TO WATCH: We can't find any stock-specific news but shares of BRKS, a semiconductor company, soared 6.9 percent on very heavy volume. The move pushed BRKS through resistance at $16.00 and its simple and exponential 200-dma's. Given the Intel guidance tonight BRKS could see some follow through tomorrow. The P&F chart shows a similar breakout with a $21 target. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- GTK $25.20 +0.84 - GTK has been consolidating under its simple 200-dma for weeks. Watch for the move over $25.50 or wait for it to fill the gap over $26.00. ATVI $16.56 +0.58 - Bulls can watch ATVI to hit a new all-time high over $17.00. CSCO $19.20 +0.05 - CSCO has been testing resistance at its declining 100-dma for the past month. DSPG $23.76 +1.09 - After two weeks of consolidating DSPG is breaking out over resistance at $23.00 and its simple 200-dma. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Mixed Blessing - J. Brown Thursday proved to be a day of mixed blessings. There was no follow through on Wednesday's big rally even as oil lost another 4.3 percent to break down under the $45 a barrel level and its simple 100-dma. The weekly initial jobless claims were higher than expected but the monster job numbers were positive. Overall the market seems cautiously optimistic for tomorrow's November non-farm payrolls (jobs) report. You wouldn't know it from the closing numbers but the NASDAQ managed to hit new three-year highs. The S&P 500 tagged another three-year high and the Dow Transports hit another five-year high - at least on an intraday basis. The market was mixed with technology out performing followed by biotech, drugs and defense. The real winners today were the airlines as traders snapped up shares in the face of oil's weakness. Technically the market is still very overbought. The volatility indices remain in bearish reversal territory and the ARMS index or TRIN moving averages are in bearish reversal range as well. Yet Intel's positive mid-quarter update tonight after the bell is expected to give the semiconductor stocks a boost tomorrow. This in turn should give techs in general a lift. That is assuming we don't have any massively negative economic numbers or job misses. The trend is still your friend but it may be time to rotate out of oil stocks at least short term. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9585 Current : 10585 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10513 50-dma: 10204 200-dma: 10239 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1188 52-week Low : 1031 Current : 1190 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1180 50-dma: 1141 200-dma: 1122 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1581 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1613 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1579 50-dma: 1491 200-dma: 1443 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.98 +0.01 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 13.91 +0.45 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 18.64 +0.40 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.84 1,043,161 872,938 Equity Only 0.69 882,049 611,484 OEX 0.71 19,801 30,427 QQQ* -- -- -- *Symbol changed to QQQQ today and the CBOE has not updated their systems yet. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 75.6 + 1.4 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 76.0 + 2 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 66.6 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 73.8 + 1.4 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 74.0 + 2 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.87 10-dma: 0.87 21-dma: 0.90 55-dma: 1.07 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1094 1592 Decliners 1715 1437 New Highs 215 162 New Lows 10 13 Up Volume 921M 1435M Down Vol. 1276M 963M Total Vol. 2240M 2418M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/23/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials are growing more bearish despite upping both their long and short positions. As usual the small traders are headed the opposite direction by growing more bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/02/04 446,192 441,676 ( 4,516) (0.4%) 11/09/04 447,779 449,171 ( 1,392) (0.1%) 11/16/04 452,149 468,048 (15,899) (1.7%) 11/23/04 462,408 491,384 (28,976) (3.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 136,290 132,040 4,250 1.5% 11/09/04 148,415 136,325 12,090 4.2% 11/16/04 166,862 156,751 10,111 3.1% 11/23/04 171,192 150,606 20,586 6.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials have been consistently bearish on the e-minis but they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish bias. Small traders remain staunchly net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/02/04 307,053 580,081 (273,028) (30.7%) 11/09/04 337,164 672,903 (335,739) (33.2%) 11/16/04 371,282 796,279 (424,997) (36.4%) 11/23/04 412,724 849,091 (436,367) (34.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367) - 11/23/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 395,029 63,746 331,283 72.2% 11/09/04 392,253 58,999 333,254 73.8% 11/16/04 445,737 70,169 375,568 72.8% 11/23/04 400,995 62,080 338,915 73.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 No change here. Commercials remain net bullish. Small traders remain net bearish, although they've reached a new yearly high in their bearish attitudes. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 53,002 31,231 21,771 25.0% 11/09/04 54,509 33,016 21,493 24.5% 11/16/04 55,737 33,683 22,054 24.6% 11/23/04 58,159 34,104 24,055 26.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 8,886 36,621 (27,735) (61.3%) 11/09/04 10,213 38,251 (28,038) (57.8%) 11/16/04 10,533 37,660 (27,127) (56.2%) 11/23/04 11,153 39,712 (28,559) (56.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (28,559) - 11/23/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Both professional traders and small traders are growing more bearish on the Industrials. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 25,319 24,261 1,058 2.0% 11/09/04 22,863 22,463 400 0.8% 11/16/04 22,004 23,744 (1,740) (3.8%) 11/23/04 22,527 25,537 (3,010) (6.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/02/04 7,952 6,306 1,261 8.8% 11/09/04 6,165 6,483 ( 318) ( 2.5%) 11/16/04 5,937 6,533 ( 596) ( 4.7%) 11/23/04 5,833 8,299 (2,466) (17.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 12-02-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: ONXX Stock Splits Announcements: None Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) Closed Bullish Plays: CHK, CVX, DNR, PCU, RIG Closed Bearish Plays: TSCO High Risk/Reward Closed Bullish Plays: VLCCF Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== ONXX - non-tech long - ONXX turned in a strong day with a 4 percent rally from the $30.00 level. Shares are now at new six-week highs. ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== None ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close: 16.64 change: -1.04 stop: 16.00 Ouch! News out last night after the bell that CHK was pricing some $600 million in new debt did not combine well with a sell-off in oil-related stocks. CHK fell 5.88 percent on very strong volume. Technicals have turned bearish and we've choosing to exit now even though CHK has not yet broken support at the $16.50 level. Picked on November 12 at $17.21 Gain since picked: - 0.57 Earnings Date 11/01/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million --- ChevronTexaco - CVX - close: 52.48 change: -1.00 stop: 51.99 We have not been stopped out yet but the 12 percent sell-off in crude oil in the last three sessions has not been kind to oil stocks. Traders are rotating out of the sector for fear that they'll lose some of their hefty gains over the last several days and months. The OIX oil index has completely erased its late November gains. Technicals for CVX have turned negative and volume has been very strong. We're exiting now to minimize our losses. Picked on November 26 at $55.15 Gain since picked: - 2.67 Earnings Date 10/29/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million --- Denbury Resources - DNR - cls: 27.01 chg: -0.89 stop: 24.99 The sell-off in crude oil and oil stocks has hit shares of DNR as well. We have not been stopped out and DNR was bouncing from support at the $26.00 level this afternoon. Yet in spite of this strength we don't feel confident in the sector with crude oil under $45 a barrel and its simple 100-dma. We remain long-term bullish on oil stocks but we could get a better entry point down the road. Watch DNR's 100-dma. Picked on November 22 at $27.51 Gain since picked: - 0.50 Earnings Date 10/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 366 thousand --- Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 45.47 chg: -1.72 stop: 44.99 We can't find any stock-specific news but shares of PCU sold off this morning on heavy volume to break support at the $45.00 mark. They did manage a bounce by the afternoon but we've been stopped out at $44.99. Technicals have turned negative for PCU. Picked on November 14 at $47.90 Gain since picked: - 2.43 Earnings Date 00/00/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 353 thousand --- Transoceaon Inc - RIG - close: 37.68 change: -1.48 stop: 37.45 The OSX oil services index has completely erased its late November gains in just the last few sessions. We were expecting a dip in shares of RIG but not this steep. The 12 percent sell-off in crude oil and its technical breakdown do not bode well short-term for the sector. While RIG managed to bounce back above support at the $37.50 level we've been stopped out at $37.45. Picked on November 18 at $37.51 Gain since picked: + 0.17 Earnings Date 10/26/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Tractor Supply Co - TSCO - cls: 34.06 chg: +0.76 stop: 35.01 We came so close to our target in the $31-30 range. It's frustrating to be that close and have the stock reverse on us. It's even worse when we can't find a reason for it. It seems like the financial media has been harping the last couple of days about how uninspiring the initial push into the holiday shopping season has been despite all the hopes prior to Thanksgiving. Normally one would think this kind of negative attention would bring retail stocks lower. Not so for TSCO. The stock has inexplicably rallied. We're choosing to exit now before we see the entire move down erased. Technicals are turning bullish although the stock remains in its long-term downtrend. Picked on November 07 at $35.68 Gain since picked: - 1.62 Earnings Date 10/11/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 422 thousand ================================================================== High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section ================================================================== ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Knightsbridge Tankers - VLCCF - cls: 34.22 chg: -1.94 stop: 34.85 VLCCF is another victim of the oil-related sell-off. The stock was looking pretty strong before crude oil imploded in the last two sessions. Volume on VLCCF has been very high suggesting investors are rotating out to protect their profits over the last few months. We've been stopped out at $34.85. Picked on November 22 at $37.60 Gain since picked: + 0.51 Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 307 thousand ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MRK Merck & Co 28.60 +0.88 JNJ Johnson & Johnson 61.75 +0.56 WYE Wyeth 41.45 +0.82 KMB Kimberly Clark 65.11 +1.57 CL Colgate Palmolive 47.36 +0.64 COF Capital One Financial 79.91 +0.61 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- CNET Cnet Networks 10.75 +1.01 CREAF Creative Technology 14.97 +1.07 BID Sotheby's Holding 17.38 +1.58 BRKS Brooks Automation 17.11 +1.11 SBGI Sinclair Broadcast 8.41 +1.04 FLSH M-Systems Flash Disk 17.55 +1.10 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AMGN Amgen Inc 62.94 +1.98 SBUX Starbucks 58.65 +1.10 NTAP Network Appliance 33.73 +1.60 COH Coach Inc 52.65 +1.62 NTLI NTL Inc 71.71 +2.25 SEPR Sepracor Inc 48.28 +3.12 WTFC Wintrust Financial 63.02 +1.42 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- SLB Schlumberger 62.05 -1.58 NEM Newmont Mining 45.87 -1.30 ABS Albertson's Inc 24.20 -1.58 BTU Peabody Energy 75.51 -5.49 ESV Ensco Intl Inc 28.68 -1.24 ANN Ann Taylor Stores 20.51 -1.78 VRNT Verint Systems 38.26 -3.24 NRP Natural Resource Partners 49.15 -4.05 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- ECA Encana Corp 54.27 -1.97 IMO Imperial Oil Ltd 59.65 -1.34 GRMN Garmin Ltd 55.37 -3.42 ANF Abercrombie & Fitch 44.90 -1.63 VPI Vintage Petroleum 23.04 -1.10 CKH Seacor Holdings 53.22 -2.53 IOC Interoil Corp 35.55 -1.64 SMSC Standard Microsystems 23.98 -1.02 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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