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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 12/07/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 12-07-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Naughty Traders
Watch List:        Possible Breakouts
Market Sentiment:  Overdue

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      12-07-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10440.58 -106.50 10567.16 10440.36 1.95 bln  773/2434
NASDAQ   2114.66 - 36.60  2161.30  2114.65 2.69 bln  796/2351
S&P 100   560.94 -  5.65   567.84   560.92   Totals 1569/4785
S&P 500  1177.07 - 13.18  1192.19  1177.07 
SOX       437.51 -  9.40   451.31   437.49
RUS 2000  625.50 - 13.53   639.78   625.46
DJ TRANS 3669.66 - 37.60  3730.12  3669.66
VIX        13.67 +  0.48    13.74    12.96
VXO (VIX-O)14.18 +  0.61    14.41    13.59
VXN        20.28 +  0.75    20.38    19.02 
Total Volume 4,908M
Total UpVol  1,267M
Total DnVol  3,577M
Total Adv  1877
Total Dcl  5415
52wk Highs  289
52wk Lows    43
TRIN       1.37
NAZTRIN    0.65
PUT/CALL   0.75
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Naughty Traders
by Jim Brown

It appears Santa made a list of those who have been 
naughty and nice and traders ended up on the naughty
list. While we are still far away from the normal
Santa Claus rally it was mentioned many times today 
and not in a complementary fashion. Everybody with a
microphone or a keyboard was moaning about the failing
market and the prospects of the Santa rally being past
tense for 2004. Enough traders took them at heart and
the markets closed at the lows for the day with no
buyers in sight. 

Dow Chart

 
SPX Chart

 
Nasdaq Chart

 

The economic reports today left a lot to be desired and
they helped to weaken bullish sentiment. Chain Store Sales
fell again by -1.7% and the second consecutive week of
strong declines. The index fell to its lowest reading 
since the end of January and this at the beginning of
the strong holiday shopping season. A special ICSC
survey this week showed 32% of shoppers were already
half done with their holiday shopping and 9% had already
completed the task. Obviously some shoppers had too much
extra time on their hands. I am waiting for the "real" 
discounts to begin on Dec-20th. Quite a few people follow
my example, mostly male shoppers I presume because the 
same survey suggested a strong finish similar to last 
year's pattern.

October consumer credit rose by +$7.7 billion and last
months number was revised upward to +$13.6 billion from
+$9.8B. This rising credit is pushing the consumer debt
burden even higher and December is expected to continue 
this trend. High energy prices and low wages are forcing
consumers to depend more on credit to get through the
month.  

Jobs are still an issue with the Challenger report showing
a rise in announced layoffs to 104,530. This was the third
consecutive month over 100,000 and this is generally the
time of year when layoffs moderate. This rising trend in
a normally positive period suggests there is still trouble
under the hood in the economy. The Jobs report last Friday
was also lower than expected and this layoff report was
a confirmation of that weakness in labor. During the boom
years prior to 2000 the level of layoffs remained below
50,000 per month. However, layoffs in 2004 are 19% below
the 2003 level for the 12 months ending in November.

Q3 Productivity was revised down slightly to +1.8% but
costs were revised higher by that same +1.8% rate. On an
annual basis productivity in Q3 dropped to +3.1% from +4.9%
in the second quarter. The revision today was not a real 
problem but the rising costs continue to drag on profits.
Corporations are doing everything they can to keep from
adding to payrolls and taking on the added cost burden.

While economics were seen as only a slight depressant on
the market there were some other challenges traders had
to overcome. Lehman advised customers that the market
ahead could be disappointing with only single digit gains
in 2005. They said earnings would disappoint and not to 
expect big gains. 

Insider trading hit a four-year high with $6.6 billion 
in stock sales in November. Analysts point to this trend
as a lack of confidence by insiders that business conditions
are going to improve in the short term. If insiders were
optimistic then investors should be optimistic. This is
not a hard statistic given the massive selling by the
Google insiders and by Larry Ellison. Together they 
accounted for the majority of the sales.

Despite the triple digit Dow loss there was very little
negative news on stocks. In reality there was a flood of
positive news. Cisco said guidance for +13% growth was
reasonable and said many positive things about their
new product line. Cisco soared on the news to a three
month high over $20 and then sold off to close negative.
They did however make comments that suggested margins
were coming under increasing pressure on tougher
competition from overseas competitors. 

Intel CEO Craig Barrett said that Intel had recovered
from product missteps and the company was now firing on
all eight cylinders again. He said Intel had regained its
market share in memory after pricing themselves out of the
market in 2003. They will be shipping their new dual core
processors in 2005 and by 2006 they expect 70% of the
product line will be the faster dual core processors. 
The WSJ is reporting tonight that Intel expects a ten
fold increase in processor speed by 2008. That would
equate to a 30 ghz chip but since they are getting away
from that measurement no target was mentioned. Intel 
said within three years it would be delivering not
just dual core processors but multicore chips with 
multiple processors to catapult total processor speed 
to new highs. Intel dropped -50 cents on the good news. 

Corning announced that two of its customers had either
pushed out or cancelled existing orders of LCD glass.
Corning had already announced they were not going to 
try and increase production to corner the market. After
being killed on an excess of fiber optic cable when the
Internet bubble burst they are comfortable manufacturing
for a profit and not trying to hog the entire sector.
They expect LCD TVs to be 16% of the market in 2005.

The satellite radio wars continue to heat up with XMSR
announcing Toyota will offer the radios as a factory
option in 2006. Customers buying Toyota and Lexus cars
can order them with factory installed radios. Not to be
left out SIRI announced that Toyota will offer dealer 
installed radios on nine models beginning in Feb-2005. 
This blow for blow advertising war continues to push 
both stocks higher. There was a rumor today the Nasdaq 
would put SIRI in the QQQQ and that provided another 
boost for both companies. XMSR currently has more than
three times as many subscribers as SIRI and this David
and goliath battle is far from over. 

After the bell Texas Instruments gave their mid quarter
update and they narrowed guidance to the middle of their
previous range. They said the inventory correction that
began in Q3 was continuing and order trends remained soft.
TXN said its own inventory problem will be down by year
end but they declined to predict how long the sector
problem would last. The after hours impact to futures
from TXN was negligible.  

On a positive note Seagate Technology (STX) raised its
estimates on stronger than expected demand for its 
products. They said profits could be as high as 22 cents
and that was well above the prior 11 to 14 cent estimate.
Revenue was expected to jump to $1.76B from the $1.61B
prior estimate. Shares of STX jumped +$2 in after hours
to $18.50. The company said retailer inventories had
declined to 3-4 weeks. With the prices at nearly free
it is not surprising. I bought five 200GB Western Digital
enhanced IDE drives this week for $104 each. (no rebate
needed at www.dttechnology.com) 

The market drop today came only a few hours after Ralph
Acampora issued his new targets for all the indexes.
Ralph now believes that we are in a new cyclical bull
market that started in October 2002 and will last for
the next six months. His targets are Dow 13,264, SPX
1473, Nasdaq 2796, Russell 797. I am sure he was very
gratified by the market implosion the day after he went
on CNBC with his bullish comments. In reality he is about
the only high profile analyst expecting good things from
2005. The list is long and growing longer for those who
feel January will be the high for the year. 

That feeling may have helped put the market on the skids
today and once the drop began it took on a life of its
own. Volume was very high on the Nasdaq with 2.7 billion
shares trading. The broad market advance decline line
was more than 3:1 in favor of declines. The market
reporters were constantly feeding the public a dose of
the Santa rally blues and predicting it will not appear
this year. In reality we are just in the period I 
mentioned several times last month where tax loss selling
normally occurs. I have discussed in this column the 
potential for that selling to have moved to the week 
ahead of Thanksgiving in order to get in front of the 
Microsoft dividend and that could have been a factor in
the pre Thanksgiving weakness. However, the sharp drop 
today without any real news trigger was not simply a 
concentrated effort by some funds to adjust their 
portfolio. Why they chose today to accelerate the selling
we will never know exactly. This was the third consecutive
down day and the selling began at 1:PM and never stopped.
Various support levels provided short pauses but sellers
were still unloading in the after hours futures. Several
reporters mentioned that extreme selling volume in the 
S&P futures after 1:PM drove the majority of the drop.  

One theory I pondered today had to do with the Microsoft
dividend play. If you remember we saw a huge spike in
the market the day before the dividend payment. The Dow
soared +162 points and the SPX rallied to a high just
below 1195 on "strong buying in the S&P futures." Once
the dividend was paid NOTHING happened. After that
Wednesday rally the market has been flat to down. We
speculated that the funds who bought the futures were
hedging themselves in advance of the expected liquidity
bounce. The high volume for the next three days with
no gains or losses were thought to be funds unwinding
those futures positions (negative market pressure) and
moving into stocks with the Microsoft money. (positive
pressure) This unwinding was thought to be producing
the high volume and no relative movement. After watching
the market action today and reviewing the action after
the close I am speculating today was the real unwinding
of that Wednesday bounce. 

I am speculating that the strong futures led bounce was
in anticipation of that Microsoft liquidity causing a
monster market move. Hedge funds positioned themselves
for that move with futures just like the mutual funds.
When it did not appear they grew nervous and today they
bailed. The market retraced to almost EXACTLY where the
rally began last Wednesday. Last Wednesday the Dow opened
at 10425, SPX 1174, Nasdaq 2104. Of those three the Dow 
and SPX retraced to almost exactly those levels today. 
The Nasdaq held its gains slightly better with a close at 
2116 but I am betting the positive Cisco and Intel news
helped prevent further weakness. 

The Russell was the index that really broke the trend. 
The Russell began last Wednesday at 634 and closed today
at 626. However, the Russell had been the index of choice
for the prior five weeks. Funds normally buy the Russell
stocks going into year end and I suspect there was a lot
more posturing in small caps before last week's bounce. 
The Russell also led this week's drop with a very weak 
performance beginning on Monday. When the bottom fell
out today it began on the Russell and never let up. After
the close the Russell futures fell to 624 in after hours.
The Russell futures have been weaker than the cash index
and this agrees with my speculation about the pre dividend
futures speculation. They just unloaded them today and 
with the Russell futures a "thinner" market the damage
was more apparent.

All this speculation about the reason for the drop does
not tell us where the drop will stop. Personally my target
for the drop this week was SPX 1177. (1176 in the futures)
I talked about it all day in the futures monitor and that
has been exactly the low so far. No magic here but just
very obvious support. That equates to 10425-10440 on the
Dow. The Nasdaq equivalent would have been 2100 but the
techs are holding their gains better despite the -36 
point drop. The Nasdaq closed at 2116. 

For Wednesday I am looking for a potential rebound but
it may only come in the form of an oversold relief bounce.
Some damage has been done to the bullish sentiment and
it may take a couple days for that to be erased. We are
still in the period in December where weakness is common
so there is no reason to get too excited. I have to 
admit the sharpness of today's drop was out of character
for the current market and if it is not due to the futures
play by hedge funds then there are forces at work that
could continue to undermine support. 

I am still a dip buyer above SPX 1165 and would target
that level for a conservative entry in front of a Santa
Claus rally. Below 1165 I would be flat or short. If we
do get a relief bounce at the open on Wednesday then I
would want to see that bounce hold over 1177 for bullish
confirmation before going long. December is normally a 
bullish month but no trend is infallible. Choose your 
positions wisely and raise your stops to protect profits.
Don't get caught letting profits slip away just because
December is "normally" bullish. 

Time is slipping away for the end of year renewal 
special. This would be a good time to check it out!
Bonuses are shipped in the order they are received.

Buy the dips until the trend changes. 

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Marsh & Mclennan - MMC - close: 29.77 change: +0.54

WHAT TO WATCH: We have mixed feelings on MMC.  The recent 
consolidation is suggesting a breakout over resistance at $30.00 
soon.  We'd love to play a "fill the gap" move back towards $35.  
Yet we hesitate to consider longs since MMC will be at the top of 
the list for tax loss selling this year.  Investors holding MMC 
will begin to sell the stock between mid-December and year-end.  
This makes any breakout in the next couple of days a potential 
bull trap. If you trade options it might be a potential straddle 
play instead.




---

NU Skin - NUS - close: 22.70 change: -0.64

WHAT TO WATCH: NUS has bravely battled back from its October lows 
to breakout above technical resistance at the 200 and 100-dma's.  
However, the stock has now filled the gap down and looks 
overbought, extended and tired.  Technicals are beginning to fade 
and its MACD is on the verge of a new sell signal.  Watch for a 
breakdown under $22.00. 




---

Xilinx - XLNX - close: 31.25 change: -0.64

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stock XLNX has been struggling with 
its simple 200-dma as resistance for the past three weeks.  
Unfortunately for shareholders it has been losing the fight.  
Currently XLNX has pulled back to minor support at $31.00 
bolstered by its exponential 200-dma.  We're going to watch for a 
bullish breakout over the $33.00 level.  It may not happen this 
week and shares may dip to $30 before it occurs.  





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

FOSL $24.87 -0.29 - We are still watching FOSL.  Today's 
breakdown under $25.00 looks like a new bearish entry point.  Our 
initial target would be $22 with a secondary target at $20.

FCEL $8.21 -1.25 - Ouch!  FCEL fell 13.2 percent after Smith 
Barney started coverage with a "sell".  We're not suggesting any 
plays here but brave bears might target long-term support near 
$5.00.

PPD $38.42 +2.10 - The rally in PPD is incredible but it's also 
unsustainable.  Nothing goes straight up forever.  Today's pull 
back from its highs could be signs of a possible top.

INTC $23.48 -0.53 - Lack of follow through on last week's rally 
is disappointing. INTC remains under pressure with its 200-dma. 
Bulls can wait for a move over $25.00.

SANM $8.53 -0.51 - Uh-oh!  Today's 5.6 percent decline looks 
pretty ominous.  If shares don't bounce from the $8.00 level SANM 
could be in trouble.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Overdue
- J. Brown

Stocks have been overdue for a significant pull back for weeks so 
we shouldn't be surprise to see one this week.  This does seem to 
be somewhat of an empty week on Wall Street.  Last week there was 
a wave of economic news with the jobs report plus we had the 
Microsoft dividend and Intel mid-quarter update.  Today there was 
some news from various analysts conferences held by some tech 
bellwethers but nothing to keep the momentum alive.  Even a 3.3% 
drop in crude oil to $41.55 failed to spark any interest in 
buying stocks.  

Bulls probably shouldn't worry much.  Stocks look tired and need 
a break.  A pull back this week would set up for an end of your 
finale.  Normally we can look for small caps to out perform as 
they get a boost from an early January effect in mid-December.  I 
realize the Russell 2000 index just produced a new MACD sell 
signal but after a few days of declines the dip buying could 
begin again.   

Market internals were certainly bearish but that's what we would 
expect from a market-wide sell-off.  Declining stocks outnumbered 
advancers 11 to 3 on the NYSE and 23 to 7 on the NASDAQ.  Down 
volume overwhelmed up volume by 5 to 1 on the NYSE and 17 to 9 on 
the NASDAQ.  

The rest of the week is pretty quiet on the economic front until 
we get to Friday's PPI report. 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9585
Current     : 10440

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10519
 50-dma: 10234 
200-dma: 10237 



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1188
52-week Low : 1031
Current     : 1177

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1183
 50-dma: 1146
200-dma: 1123



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1581
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1589

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1591
 50-dma: 1504
200-dma: 1445



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.67 +0.48
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.18 +0.61
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.28 +0.75 


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.75        926,429       697,405
Equity Only    0.59        758,292       446,314
OEX            1.16         29,569        34,289
QQQQ           2.48         34,042        84,463


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          75.7    + 0     Bear Correction
NASDAQ-100    78.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       74.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       75.0    + 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.08
10-dma: 0.95 
21-dma: 0.99
55-dma: 1.09


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     590       771
Decliners    2227      2301

New Highs      61        56
New Lows       13        19

Up Volume    322M      890M
Down Vol.   1585M     1717M

Total Vol.  1924M     2630M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 11/30/04


Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
Commercials traders didn't budge from their slightly bearish
tone last week while small traders have increased their bullish
attitudes.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/09/04      447,779   449,171   ( 1,392)   (0.1%)
11/16/04      452,149   468,048   (15,899)   (1.7%)
11/23/04      462,408   491,384   (28,976)   (3.0%)
11/30/04      462,394   491,813   (29,419)   (3.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/09/04      148,415   136,325    12,090     4.2%
11/16/04      166,862   156,751    10,111     3.1%
11/23/04      171,192   150,606    20,586     6.4%
11/30/04      176,031   148,876    27,155     8.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders added to both longs and shorts while 
small traders reduced some longs to lower their bullishness
by a few percentage points.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
11/09/04      337,164   672,903   (335,739)  (33.2%)
11/16/04      371,282   796,279   (424,997)  (36.4%)
11/23/04      412,724   849,091   (436,367)  (34.6%)
11/30/04      439,074   855,440   (416,366)  (32.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367)  - 11/23/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/09/04      392,253     58,999   333,254    73.8%
11/16/04      445,737     70,169   375,568    72.8%
11/23/04      400,995     62,080   338,915    73.1%
11/30/04      386,665     67,926   318,739    70.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Sentiment is hitting new one-year extremes on the NDX.
Commercials are becoming more bullish while small traders
are becoming more bearish!

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
11/09/04       54,509     33,016    21,493   24.5%
11/16/04       55,737     33,683    22,054   24.6%
11/23/04       58,159     34,104    24,055   26.0%
11/30/04       56,629     30,571    26,058   29.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  26,058   - 11/30/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/09/04       10,213    38,251   (28,038)  (57.8%)
11/16/04       10,533    37,660   (27,127)  (56.2%)
11/23/04       11,153    39,712   (28,559)  (56.1%)
11/30/04        9,902    44,779   (34,877)  (63.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (34,877) - 11/30/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Both the commercial traders and the small traders have
grown more bearish on the Industrials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/09/04       22,863    22,463      400       0.8%
11/16/04       22,004    23,744   (1,740)     (3.8%)
11/23/04       22,527    25,537   (3,010)     (6.2%)
11/30/04       22,622    25,411   (2,789)     (5.8%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/09/04        6,165     6,483    ( 318)   ( 2.5%)
11/16/04        5,937     6,533    ( 596)   ( 4.7%)
11/23/04        5,833     8,299   (2,466)   (17.4%)
11/30/04        5,739     8,536   (2,797)   (19.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 12-07-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  SEBL, QLGC, PDCO, STJ

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  Closed Bullish Plays: ACH

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

SEBL - tech stock long -
  SEBL started out strong but the rally failed at $10.85
  and the stock slid lower throughout the rest of the day.
  We're watching for a bounce from the $10.15 region.
  Fortunately, its surprise announcement came after 
  the closing bell.  SEBL plans a new initiative to target
  the small and medium business market.  The news had
  share trading slightly higher after hours.
 
 
QLGC - tech stock long - 
  Uh-oh!  Double check your risk on this play.  QLGC
  just painted a bearish engulfing candlestick with today's
  market decline.  We would expect more weakness 
  tomorrow.  If QLGC doesn't bounce from the $35.00-35.50
  level then we would probably exit. 
 
 
PDCO - non-tech long -
  Watch for a bounce from support at $40.00 as the 
  next entry point.
 
 
STJ - non-tech long -
  Hang on!  STJ is painting a potential bearish reversal
  with today's failed rally near $41.00.  If the stock breaks
  down under $39.00 we might exit early.


==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Aluminum Corp China - ACH - close: 59.50 chg: -2.98 stop: 59.75

Looks like our caution on ACH was warranted. The broad-market 
sell-off was too much for shares of ACH.  The stock broke down 
under support at $62.00 and again at round-number, psychological 
support at $60.00.  Volume was above average suggesting this 
reversal has more weakness ahead of it.  We've been stopped out 
at $59.75.  

Picked on November 14 at $63.45 
Gain since picked:       - 3.95
Earnings Date          00/00/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand





==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None

==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

GSK     GlaxoSmithKline            45.05     +0.53
CL      Colgate-Palmolive          50.07     +3.78
MMC     Marsh & Mclennan           29.77     +0.54
FRX     Forest Labs                41.56     +0.66
BLL     Ball Corp                  43.52     +0.89
DVA     Davita Inc                 37.72     +0.90

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

DSCO    Discovery Labs              8.22     +1.40
RFMI    RF Monolithics             10.60     +1.05
ABIX    Abatix Corp                12.77     +4.88
RCO     Ramp Corp                   5.45     +1.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
GDT     Guidant Corp               72.35     +3.60
GYI     Getty Images               63.95     +2.21
NVDA    NVIDIA Corp                22.81     +1.09
RCI     Renal Care                 34.52     +1.33
LAUR    Lareate Education          42.47     +1.11
CRDN    Ceradyne Inc               50.69     +2.00
PPD     Pre-Paid Legal Services    38.42     +2.10

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NCC     Natl City Corp             36.17     -1.20
FITB    Fifth Third Bancorp        45.99     -1.01
IMO     Imperial Oil Ltd           57.36     -1.92
CCJ     Cameco Corp                90.00     -4.60
AMCR    Amcor Ltd                  21.10     -2.26
SAY     Satyam Computer            24.27     -1.50
PPDI    Pharma Product Development 38.55     -1.39
PPC     Pilgrim's Pride Corp       30.33     -1.60
GGC     Georgia Gulf               49.53     -6.90

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

E       Eni Spa                   120.03     -2.17
LMT     Lockheed Martin            60.21     -1.40
PPG     PPG Industries             65.92     -1.86
COL     Rockwell Collins Inc       39.15     -1.37
NTLI    NTL Inc                    69.27     -1.92
SNDA    Shanda Interactive         39.30     -3.51
LOGI    Logitech Intl              58.00     -1.20
WLK     Westlake Chemical          29.78     -1.89

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