PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 12-14-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: New Highs! Watch List: Four More Candidates Market Sentiment: On Your Mark ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 12-14-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10676.45 + 38.10 10695.07 10621.03 1.97 bln 1967/1263 NASDAQ 2159.84 + 11.30 2163.50 2145.05 2.28 bln 1896/1261 S&P 100 572.42 + 2.01 573.50 569.75 Totals 3863/2524 S&P 500 1203.38 + 4.70 1205.29 1197.84 SOX 433.02 + 7.90 434.32 425.22 RUS 2000 643.54 + 5.51 643.62 637.67 DJ TRANS 3757.03 + 32.10 3758.41 3721.89 VIX 12.73 + 0.19 12.97 12.21 VXO (VIX-O)13.45 - 0.10 14.07 13.29 VXN 18.58 - 0.20 19.05 18.35 Total Volume 4,481M Total UpVol 2,650M Total DnVol 1,705M Total Adv 4383 Total Dcl 2936 52wk Highs 479 52wk Lows 49 TRIN 0.94 NAZTRIN 1.16 PUT/CALL 0.77 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== New Highs! by Jim Brown The markets continued to trade higher before the Fed news today with a quarter point hike already priced into the mix. The Fed did not disappoint but lacking any new bias from the Fed traders were left looking for direction once the Fed meeting was over. Economics continue to be mixed and traders hoping for the Fed to unravel the puzzle were comforted only slightly by the same bias replay. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart Chain Store Sales finally rebounded from last week with a +1.2% gain but only partly recovered the prior weeks -1.7% drop. The holiday shopping remains lackluster despite the drop in gas prices. All accounts suggest consumers have gotten used to steep discounts in the last two weeks of the season and are patiently waiting for the price slashing to begin. The International Trade deficit rose to record levels for October at -$55.5 billion. According to the BEA exports increased only marginally but imports soared. The $55.5B number was $5B worse than the $50.9B in September. Alan Greenspan must be losing sleep at night over this soaring imbalance given his comments in November. Consensus estimates were for only a slight gain to $51.6B. During October oil hit its highs over $55 and this accounted for the majority of the jump. The October number was a record high. If oil prices continue to slip the deficit will ease slightly and the weakening dollar should also help. Industrial Production rose +0.3% in November and less than half the previously announced +0.7% gain in October. That Oct number was also revised down to +0.6%. This was the second consecutive month of gains after flattening over the summer and dipping into negative territory in September. Business equipment and construction production increased +0.4%. This spending on equipment is driven by the tax depreciation incentives which expire on Dec-31st. The accelerated depreciation has produced a mini boom in computer equipment, servers, routers and switches over the last quarter. Capacity utilization is still only 77.6%, 73.5% for durable goods, and still weak enough to prevent any significant escalation in prices or a return of the inflation monster. Until manufacturers have pricing power brought on by rapid increases in demand the inflation component will remain tame. The tax incentives have driven a +10% rise in business equipment production while home electronics production has declined -6.4% over the same period. Another crack in the economic foundation appeared today in the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey. For the first time in over a year the index posted a negative growth number. September of last year began the year long run of growth in the area and it topped in September of 2004. Novembers decline to -3 was the second monthly decline from the high of 22 in September. The rate of decay appears fairly steep with the order backlog falling to -17 from -5 in October. Shipments fell to -3 from 14 in October. New orders fell to -8 from 3 last month. The six month outlook barely budged with a move down to 32 from 35 and its high for the year. All components fell in November, most for the second consecutive month. Given the growth in some areas is stagnating the drop in the Richmond region suggests there is a weakening in the broader economy at the manufacturing level. We must remember that there is normally a slump in the fourth quarter that should improve in Q1. We need to watch these various Fed reports for evidence of that rebound or lack of a rebound in January. On Wednesday we get the NY Manufacturing Survey and it has been very strong with new highs every month. The Manpower Employment Survey showed the net hiring plans for Q1-2005 were positive in 17 of 19 countries. They were better than Q1-2004 in 12 of 19 countries. The US is showing a net change for Q1 of 21%. The raw numbers show 24% of American companies are planning to hire, 10% are planning cuts and 59% are not planning any changes. This results in a positive outlook for Q1-2005 over Q4-2004 of 21% of companies hiring. Net hiring plans in the US exceed year ago numbers in every region. Only the Midwest is lower for the 4Q comparisons. This has been a reliable survey for tracking the long term trends and the current numbers suggest an average gain in jobs of about 200K per month for Q1-2005. The Fed met, talked and in the end changed four words in their statement from the last meeting and hiked rates by a quarter point as expected. According to the Fed risks to the upside/downside remain roughly equal, inflation remained contained, output is growing at a moderate pace and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Sounds like they are talking about a turtle race. They noted that energy prices had eased and employment conditions had returned to gradual instead of the "have improved" they used in the prior statement. This is a back step after the weak November Jobs report. Leaving the statement the same with the measured pace clause weakened the thought that they could quit at 2.5% and reinforced the prior 3.0% level as a stopping point for 2005. While the markets were tame most of the day while waiting for the Fed announcement there was plenty of stock news. Symantec got crushed with a -16% drop of -5.41 to $27.75 after news broke that they were in talks to buy Veritas Software. While this might be a logical progression for Symantec it immediately posed questions that the virus business may be easing. AOL now gives away Macafee software and analysts were questioning if this acquisition might be out of a need to diversify rather than just a new business opportunity. SYMC split 2:1 on Dec-1st and there had been very little post split depression despite the very strong gains. It appears it all hit on the same day. RIMM was hammered for a -$4.65 drop to $85 after a very volatile day. The appeals court handed down a ruling in their long running patent case that voided part of the lower court judgment but posed additional questions in other areas. In the initial excitement the stock spiked to $103.56 from 87.50 and then fell back to 92.50 before trading was halted. Once the news was disseminated the stock opened again for trading at 92.50 and fell to 82.18 once the news was fully understood. I won't waste the space here with the long description but it was a ruling in part for NTP and threw the case back into a hostile court. Analysts have been expecting an out of court settlement to remove the cloud if the ruling did not go the way RIMM was expecting. This could accelerate that process. RIMM is also trying to get the NTP patents overturned which would make all the court rulings obsolete. There is a strong argument that they will be successful in this endeavor. That makes it even more likely that NTP and RIMM will settle and business will continue without the cloud. It should be noted that RIMM has escrowed the full amount of the prior judgment and will not suffer any material damage regardless of the final outcome. RIMM was the editors play last Sunday in anticipation of this verdict. I am still positive on the stock and would buy it on the dip once it appears a bottom has formed. MSTR rounds out the lineup of losers with a -14% drop of -9.67 to $56 after it was announced the president and CFO was leaving to take over as president of Mcafee. Eric Brown had been seen as the instrumental force behind the Microstrategy rebound from the 2001 disaster. Several brokers downgraded the stock to a hold from buy until a new face takes charge. Support is well below the current $56 level so this one could have some more to lose. GE confused investors today with an early affirmation of guidance and a positive outlook on the future. GE said it expects double digit growth in Q4, all of 2005 and for the foreseeable future. Jeffery Immelt told investors that GE had excellent momentum going into 2005 and the right businesses with the right team to sustain growth for years to come. GE expects to earn slightly less than $5.5 billion in Q4 with a 15% rise in revenue. In 2005 GE expects profits to increase 13-17% to nearly $20 billion. Cash is expected to grow at double digit rates as well despite a $15B stock buyback program announced last week. The surprise announcement spiked GE to $37.75 from $32.18 and sent all the indexes higher in late afternoon. Unfortunately for GE the good news could not keep the stock positive and it closed slightly negative after a four day ramp from $35.50. GE has been moving steadily higher although excruciatingly slowly since May. Investors sold the news today at $37.75 and probably glad to exit before hitting resistance at $40. Merck said today that 475 suits had already been filed due to the Vioxx drug withdrawal. They went to great lengths to paint a positive picture of their prospects without Vioxx and promised to defend themselves vigorously. The stock closed up +57 cents at $29.60 and a six-week high after rebounding from $25.60 in late November. Bill Gates was appointed to the board at Berkshire Hathaway and that is probably where he belongs. He and Warren Buffet both feel rich people don't pay enough taxes. My suggestion to them is send a check to Washington. $10 billion each should be just fine. I am sure they can find a use for the money. Talk is cheap and without action it rings hollow. The markets continued their end of year push higher today with the SPX and the Nasdaq closing at new three year highs. The Dow is gaining altitude but needs to pass 10753 to join the party. Abby Cohen made the CNBC guest list again and repeated her targets from last week for SPX 1350 and Dow 11800 for 2005. Since her target for year end 2004 was SPX 1250 she is getting a lot of face time on the networks to talk up the market. She is expecting a +10% gain for the S&P for 2005 and a GDP at +3.5%. She favors tech stocks in the S&P-500 and said we should see a continued rise into January from here. According to Abby tax selling is over and the flood of end of year retirement deposits has begun. Abby, nothing would please me more for you to be right. The Dow closed at 10681 and very near the highs for the day at 10695. This breakout for the industrials comes on the back of the small caps which have reversed their decline from last week and are challenging new highs again. The Russell closed at 643 and less than two points from an all time high. The Nasdaq finally closed over its January high at 2153 and came very close to setting a new intraday three year high. The Nasdaq is on the verge of a breakout as is the Russell and Dow and with the S&P leading the way they should not be far behind. However, we are looking at the highs being tested after a very strong four day rebound and we could be running out of traction at the end of a reasonable extension period. Nothing says we can't move higher but old highs are obvious places for sellers to wait and for longs to take profits. Once over these highs the short covering should increase and buyers hoping for a bigger dip will be forced to chase prices. I have to admit I am please with the markets performance and look forward to future gains. Unfortunately there is a historical trend for the day after the Fed to be weak regardless of the decision. That coupled with the close right at the highs on the Nasdaq, RUT and very close on the Dow could combine to produce a pause. One analyst called this a honeymoon rally on the drop in oil and the influx of year end cash. While honeymoons do end the marriage continues. I would look at any dip as a buying opportunity in anticipation of a continued rise into the year end. All that worry last week about Santa's failed appearance has been forgotten. Time is slipping away for the end of year renewal special. Don't wait for the last minute! Buy the dips until the trend changes. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Bemis Co - BMS - close: 28.60 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: BMS added 1.8 percent on decent volume to breakout over resistance near $28 and hit new six-month highs. While this does look like a tempting bullish entry point BMS still has resistance near $29 dating back to early 2002. We would wait for the move over $29.00, which should produce a spread triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart. Speaking of the P&F chart is already points to a $45 target. --- Ryder Systems - R - close: 53.84 change: +1.66 WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding R to the play list tonight as a bullish candidate. The Dow Jones Transportation index just broke out from its recent consolidation to hit new multi-year highs. That should lend R some strength as it bounces from rising technical support at its simple 40-dma. Short-term technicals for R are already turning bullish and its MACD is hinting at a new buy signal soon. --- Grainger W.W. - GWW - close: 62.92 change: +1.09 WHAT TO WATCH: GWW was another stock we strongly considered adding to the play list as a bullish candidate. With the industrials breaking out to the upside GWW has powered through resistance at $62.00-62.50 following four-weeks of consolidation. This looks like a bullish entry point. --- Wilson Greatbatch Tech. - GB - close: 21.35 change: +1.32 WHAT TO WATCH: GB has been trading in a very tight range between $19 and $21 for weeks. Today's 6.5 percent rally on above average volume is a breakout from the range and solidifies the breakout over resistance at the top of the August gap at $20.00. While we are tempted to go long here the descending simple and exponential 200-dma's is distracting. Point & Figure chart traders will note the bullish buy signal and $29 target. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== On Your Mark - J. Brown I don't want to be accused of being a cheerleader but the market is looking pretty strong right now. The major indices, as overbought as they are, look ready launch into the last two weeks that are historically some of the most bullish weeks of the year. There are plenty on Wall Street and Main Street expecting the early January effect to hit stocks starting tomorrow. Plus, it won't be much longer and we'll hear more talk of a Santa Claus rally too. The last two sessions have seen some positive market internals. Today the advancing stocks outnumbered decliners 9-to-5 on the NYSE and 3-to-2 on the NASDAQ. Plus, the last hour, post-FOMC rally today is evidence that traders appeared to be positioning themselves for the coming rally. Of course contrarian wisdom suggests that if everyone is looking for something to occur it usually fails to show up or fails to perform to the same expectations. However, this time, like the recent post-election rally, could be an exception to the contrarian viewpoint. We will, however, capitulate to the bears that nothing goes up forever or in a straight line. The more grizzled variety of bears might suggest that the piper has to be paid eventually and with the volatility indices this low the market should see a sharp correction someday. The good news for us is that we're not expecting any big pullbacks between now and year-end. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9708 Current : 10676 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10566 50-dma: 10278 200-dma: 10237 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1197 52-week Low : 1053 Current : 1203 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1190 50-dma: 1153 200-dma: 1124 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1631 52-week Low : 1301 Current : 1627 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1610 50-dma: 1522 200-dma: 1448 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 12.73 +0.19 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 13.45 -0.10 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 18.58 -0.20 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.77 939,542 727,301 Equity Only 0.61 702,696 425,477 OEX 1.35 35,646 48,141 QQQQ 2.43 20,030 48,847 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 75.6 + 0.4 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 78.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 70.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 76.0 + 1.2 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 77.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.00 10-dma: 1.04 21-dma: 1.01 55-dma: 1.05 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1805 1835 Decliners 1011 1201 New Highs 211 153 New Lows 8 11 Up Volume 1220M 1222M Down Vol. 685M 931M Total Vol. 1952M 2230M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/07/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders are growing a tad more bearish while small traders have pushed to new bullish levels not seen in many weeks. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/16/04 452,149 468,048 (15,899) (1.7%) 11/23/04 462,408 491,384 (28,976) (3.0%) 11/30/04 462,394 491,813 (29,419) (3.0%) 12/07/04 450,072 498,057 (47,985) (5.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 166,862 156,751 10,111 3.1% 11/23/04 171,192 150,606 20,586 6.4% 11/30/04 176,031 148,876 27,155 8.3% 12/07/07 187,707 135,776 51,931 16.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 There has been an interesting switch in the latest data. Commercial traders' bearish sentiment, while still strong, has dropped significantly. Meanwhile, small traders' bullish bias, while still extreme, has fallen significantly. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 11/16/04 371,282 796,279 (424,997) (36.4%) 11/23/04 412,724 849,091 (436,367) (34.6%) 11/30/04 439,074 855,440 (416,366) (32.2%) 12/07/04 470,553 805,234 (334,681) (26.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (436,367) - 11/23/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 445,737 70,169 375,568 72.8% 11/23/04 400,995 62,080 338,915 73.1% 11/30/04 386,665 67,926 318,739 70.1% 12/07/04 311,838 66,496 245,342 64.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 We a similar move in the NDX futures. Commercials remain bullish but their enthusiasm has waned a bit. Small traders remain very bearish but their sentiment has faded a bit too. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 55,737 33,683 22,054 24.6% 11/23/04 58,159 34,104 24,055 26.0% 11/30/04 56,629 30,571 26,058 29.8% 12/07/04 57,621 34,313 23,308 25.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 26,058 - 11/30/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 10,533 37,660 (27,127) (56.2%) 11/23/04 11,153 39,712 (28,559) (56.1%) 11/30/04 9,902 44,779 (34,877) (63.7%) 12/07/04 15,489 49,064 (33,575) (52.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (34,877) - 11/30/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials traders pared back their bearish sentiment while small traders became more bearish on the Industrials. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 22,004 23,744 (1,740) (3.8%) 11/23/04 22,527 25,537 (3,010) (6.2%) 11/30/04 22,622 25,411 (2,789) (5.8%) 12/07/04 25,523 27,351 (1,828) (3.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 11/16/04 5,937 6,533 ( 596) ( 4.7%) 11/23/04 5,833 8,299 (2,466) (17.4%) 11/30/04 5,739 8,536 (2,797) (19.6%) 12/07/04 5,274 9,507 (4,233) (28.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 12-14-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: QLGC, MNST, TARO Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) New Bullish plays: MKC Closed Bearish Plays: ED Stock Splits Announcements: AGP, MDC Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== QLGC - tech stock long - QLGC is beginning to bounce (+2.9 percent) from its 21-dma. This looks like a new bullish entry point for a run toward New Year's Eve. MNST - tech stock long - MNST is a new bullish play we added on Monday night. Shares soared another 5.3 percent on huge volume that was almost four times the average. More importantly MNST broke out over major resistance at the $30.00 level to hit new all-time highs and our entry point at $30.11. Technicals are positive and its MACD has produced a new buy signal. If you missed the entry point a dip back towards $30 looks good. TARO - non-tech long - TARO added another 4.2 percent to hit another new relative high. Shares are nearing our target at $35.00 and its exponential 200- dma. Readers can prepare to exit at $35.00. ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- McCormick & Co - MKC - close: 38.15 chg: +1.15 stop: 35.99 Company Description: McCormick & Company, Incorporated is the global leader in the manufacture, marketing and distribution of spices, seasonings and flavors to the entire food industry - to foodservice and food processing businesses as well as to retail outlets. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Many of us probably have McCormick products in our kitchen cupboards and spice cabinets yet we're not suggesting it because we like their products. We like MKC for the bullish technical breakout over resistance at $38 on volume that was almost double the norm. After six weeks of consolidating sideways between $36 and $38 the stock finally broke out thanks to a broker upgrade. Bear Stearns started coverage on the stock with an "out perform" this morning. Today's move produced a new MACD buy signal on the daily chart. Unfortunately, the P&F chart doesn't do us any good since MKC has already surpassed its bullish target near $33. We're going to target a move into the $40-42 range. Annotated Chart: Picked on December 14 at $38.15 Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 01/26/05 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 328 thousand ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Consolidated Edison - ED - close: 44.57 chg: +0.31 stop: 44.51 Try as we might we can't find a decent bearish candidate. The technical breakdown ED has reversed on us and shares are inching higher again. Yesterday's bounce in the UTY utility index didn't help us any. Now the technical picture on ED is beginning to turn bullish again. The key will be major resistance in the $45.50- 46.00 range. A breakout here would be incredible bullish. We have been stopped out at $44.51 for a small loss. Picked on December 08 at $43.49 Gain since picked: + 1.08 Earnings Date 10/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 817 thousand ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- AGP declares a 2-for-1 stock split Tuesday afternoon shortly after the market's closing bell the AMERIGROUP Corporation (NYSE:AGP) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. This split will take the form of a 100 percent stock dividend payable on January 18th, 2005 for shareholders on record as of December 31st. About the company: AMERIGROUP Corporation, headquartered in Virginia Beach, Virginia, is a multi-state managed healthcare company focused on serving people who receive healthcare benefits through publicly-sponsored programs including Medicaid, State Children's Health Insurance Program and FamilyCare. The Company operates in Texas, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Florida and the District of Columbia. (source: company website) -- MDC declares a 30 percent stock split That's right. You read that correctly. M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) management has elected to announce a 30 percent stock split. That means that shareholders will receive an extra three for every ten shares they own. Another way to say this would be a 13-for-10 stock split. The payable date is January 12th, 2005 for shareholders on record as of December 28th. The company will continue to pay a 15-cent cash dividend on a post-split basis. About the company: MDC, whose subsidiaries build homes under the name "Richmond American Homes," is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States. The Company also provides mortgage financing, primarily for MDC's homebuyers, through its wholly owned subsidiary HomeAmerican Mortgage Corporation. MDC is a major regional homebuilder with a significant presence in some of the country's best housing markets. The Company is the largest homebuilder in Colorado; among the top five homebuilders in Northern Virginia, suburban Maryland, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City; and among the top ten homebuilders in Jacksonville, Northern California and Southern California. MDC also has established operating divisions in Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, West Florida, Philadelphia/Delaware Valley and Chicago. (source: company website) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TM Toyota Motor Corp 76.35 +1.35 MRK Merck & Co 29.62 +0.57 MO Altria Group 60.77 +0.92 JNJ Johnson & Johnson 61.43 +0.79 COP ConocoPhillips 86.65 +0.84 PRU Prudential 53.11 +0.98 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- PIR Piear 1 Imports 19.10 +1.24 MPS Modis Professional Svcs 11.50 +1.42 CKR CKE Restaurants Inc 13.80 +1.75 ELON Echelon Corp 10.50 +1.38 VIRL Virage Logic Corp 18.28 +2.48 ACR American Retirement Corp 9.79 +1.01 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- GIS General Mills 48.52 +1.25 ERTS Electronic Arts 60.61 +3.04 VRTS Veritas Software 27.38 +2.19 MKC Mccormick & Co 38.15 +1.15 EMN Eastman Chemical Co 55.60 +1.65 MNST Monster Worldwide 31.08 +1.58 TTC Toro Co 80.36 +3.12 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- SYMC Symantec 27.45 -5.41 RIMM Research In Motion 85.44 -4.65 TK Teekay Shipping 43.69 -2.71 MSTR Microstrategy 56.22 -9.67 AFCO Applied Films 20.12 -2.10 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ----------------------------------------- FFH Fairfax Financial 164.95 -5.95 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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