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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 01/12/2005

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 01-12-2005
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2005, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: January's "Early Warning System"  
Watch List:  Natural Gas to Semis


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
      01-12-2005           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10617.78 + 61.56 10622.88 10499.47 1.95 bln 1612/1208
NASDAQ   2092.53 + 12.91  2093.44  2066.79 2.26 bln 1593/1434
S&P 100   567.31 +  2.63   567.54   561.96   Totals 3205/2642
S&P 500  1187.70 +  4.71  1187.98  1175.64
SOX       401.83 +  5.64   404.65   395.06
RUS 2000  613.19 +  1.66   613.70   604.64
DJ TRANS 3587.18 - 57.08  3645.37  3557.90 
VIX        12.56 -  0.63    13.94    12.54
VXO (VIX-O)12.79 -  0.24    13.78    12.77
VXN        19.28 -  0.39    19.70    18.995
Total Volume 4,221M
Total UpVol  2,794M
Total DnVol  1,349M
Total Adv  3205
Total Dcl  2642
52wk Highs  126 
52wk Lows    62
TRIN       0.86
PUT/CALL   0.93
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

January's "Early Warning System"  

Jane Fox

The Stock Traders's Almanac states that January's First Five Days 
of trading is an "Early Warning System" for the rest of the year.  
It goes like this - if the First Five Days of January are up then 
there is an 85.3% chance the rest of the year will be up also. 
Since the first five days of January this year were not up, they 
were down, is the Early Warning System giving us an early warning 
that we have bearish year ahead? Since 1950 the first five days 
in January were down 20 times and of those 20 times 10 were 
followed by a yearly bear market. This is a 50% accuracy rate, 
which I guess is OK but I'm not too encouraged by 50% odds but it 
gets better. Since 1950 there have been 13 post election years 
and 8 of those have posted a First Five Day loss. Of those 8 
years, 6 were followed by a yearly bear market, a 75% accuracy 
record. Now I like those odds a lot better. 

I recently read an article in the Wall Street Journal that was 
pooh pawing using history as way to invest. I quote, "Jeffery 
Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James, says people 
who invest according to such information are 'fooled by 
randomness.' While historical patterns are often mathematically 
intriguing, the market has a helter-skelter tendency to move in 
ways that defy strategists' complex models."  What kind of 
nonsense is that? The game of trading and investing is a game of 
probabilities and your edge is that you have probability on your 
side. If you didn’t have probability on your side how in heavens 
name could you trade or invest. If you trade a particular pattern 
and know that it has a 75% accuracy rate you will you play it - 
you would be fool not to. Don't you need history to determine 
that you had a 75% chance of winning? Many say trading 
(investing) is like gambling and I used to really bristle at 
being compared to a gambler but over the years I have begun to 
realize that it is true. But what I also came to realize was the 
reason I bristled was that I was comparing a trader (myself) to 
your garden variety gambler that frequents the casinos only on 
vacation and expects to lose. Nothing could be further from the 
truth. Professional traders should not be compared the vacation 
gambler they should be compared to the professional gambler, the 
one that knows the rules and knows the odd and plays the odds, 
plays the probabilities. Anyone who thinks trading or investing 
is anything else is fooling themselves. Now you may say: I am an 
investor in for the long term so that doesn’t apply to me. Sorry 
but it does. If you knew the market had a "history" of returning 
-5% annually per year would you have your money in the market. 
No. You invest for the long term because the market has a 
"history" of returning 10% annually. Isn’t that just playing the 
odds, playing the probabilities? Ok I'll get off my soap box and 
move on to the numbers.

THE NUMBERS

Many people were expecting the declining dollar would stimulate 
demand for U.S. products overseas and decrease the U.S. trade 
imbalance. Unfortunately a global slowdown has cooled demand for 
products and the 8:30 news of a new record trade imbalance was 
not received well by the market. It started to drop as soon as 
had had enough and began to fight back. Unfortunately though they 
were not able to muster the troops enough to reach new daily 
highs before the lunch hour doldrums set in. So many were 
expecting the trend for the last few weeks - a market selloff in 
the last 1/2 hour - was a sure thing. Well the selloff didn't 
happen as a matter of fact the opposite took place as the market 
started another rally and this time it reached and exceeded daily 
highs. This in turn was fueled by short sellers (the ones betting 
on the selloff) having to cover their butts... err positions. 

The DOW fell 67 points in the morning but finished up 61.63 to 
close at 10617.85. The S&P 500 added 4.71 to 1187.70 and the 
Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 12.91 to 2092.53. The NYSE traded 
1.6 million shares traded, 1,933 stocks rose and 1,395 fell. On 
the Nasdaq Stock Market, where volume was 2.2 billion, 1,639 
stocks advanced and 1,475 declined

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson is 
reconsidering a proposal to overhaul the way stocks are traded in 
the U.S., a proposal opposed by the New York Stock Exchange. At 
issue is whether investors should always be guaranteed the best 
price when buying or selling shares. The SEC backs the idea that 
brokers and markets should be required to get the best price 
available for a stock, regardless of where it is trading, or 
match the better price. The rule is being criticized by some who 
argue that getting the best price often takes so long that, on 
big trades involving multiple transactions, the price of a stock 
can be driven up or down quickly to their disadvantage.

The rule gives the NYSE an advantage because it often posts the 
best price for its listed stocks. But because the NYSE isn't an 
automated marketplace, its human-based floor-trading system can 
take slightly longer to execute trades than it would take in an 
electronic marketplace such as the Nasdaq Stock Market. So why is 
the NYSE opposed to the SEC's proposal? NYSE Chief Executive 
Officer John Thain believes that the rule could jeopardize his 
plan to automate the Big Board and allow for more electronic 
trading. To implement the best-price rule "would make it very 
difficult" for his new model to work and would "also make it very 
difficult to have the continuous auction process that exists 
today on the floor of the exchange." The NYSE wants its cake and 
eat it too because at the same time the NYSE is trying to 
automate they will still retain their human-based floor-trading 
by the elite floor-trading firms known as specialists and the SEC 
proposal would diminish the role of these specialists. Can't have 
that happen how can we?

But fears of the unknown and unintended consequences are taking a 
toll on Mr. Donaldson so he is backing off somewhat and is 
considering an alternative approach that would guarantee price 
protection as long as it could be filed automatically and without 
human intervention.  

ECONOMIC REPORTS 

Although analysts expected to see a rebound from the slow holiday 
period, applications for home loans dropped last week due to a 
decrease in purchasing activity that offset an increase in 
refinancing activity. 

At 7:00EST this morning the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 
released its weekly report on the seasonally adjusted index of 
mortgage application activity. It showed the index declined 3% to 
587.8. This was after a 10% decline the week before and also the 
lowest level the index has seen since the week ended June 25, 
2004, when the index was at 575.0. 

Some are saying this is due to a slight increase in mortgage 
rates, which averaged 5.7% last week (for the 30-year fixed) up 
from 5.67% the week before. However when you look under the hood 
you see that rates are comparable to where they were several 
months ago when the index was substantially higher. For example, 
the week ending November 12th, 2004, fixed 30-year mortgage rates 
were the same and the MBA's market index stood at 758.3. 

Drilling down into the report we find the gauge of loan requests 
for home purchases, the purchase index, hit 13% its lowest level 
in over a year. This, of course, is raising concerns that the 
housing market may be slowing down or even - heaven forbid - 
starting to decline. But please consider that this is weekly data 
and subject to swings that are not always indicative of a trend 
change but it does make you want to keep your eye on this weekly 
report and any further drop will likely instigate additional 
concern about the strength of the housing market. 

The Commerce Department's 8:30EST release of the November 
International Trade Balance caught a lot of economists by 
surprise who had been anticipating a pull back in the November 
deficit because of a decline in the price of oil. But quite the 
opposite happened when it was revealed that the U.S. trade gap 
climbed to a new record showing the fall in the price of oil was 
more than offset by an increase in demand for foreign oil while 
sales of U.S. goods and services overseas fell for the first time 
in five months. Although economists had forecast the deficit 
would narrow to $53.60 billion, the U.S. deficit in international 
trade of goods and services grew 7.7% to $60.3 billion. The trade 
deficit through November totaled $561.3 billion, well above the 
previous annual record of $496.5 billion set in 2003. 

Imports overall increased 1.3% to $155.85 billion during November 
and exports fell 2.3% to $66.5 billion, the first decline in five 
months reflecting a drop in shipments of U.S. autos and auto 
parts, civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment and 
industrial machinery.

At 10:30 the U.S. Department of Energy release of the weekly 
Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate inventories reported that the U.S. 
supply of crude oil declined by 3 million barrels last week to 
288.8 million barrels. This is 7% higher than a year ago. The 
supply of distillate fuel, including heating oil, diesel and jet 
fuel, rose by 1.9 million barrels, though inventories are 8% 
below a year ago at 123 million barrels. 

The last on the economic report docket was the 2:00EST Treasury 
Department's release of its monthly budget. The Treasury 
Department said the shortfall between receipts and outlays in the 
month of December 2004 was a narrower-than-expected $3.44 billion 
and well below the $17.64 billion budget gap recorded in December 
2003. Analysts were expecting a $4.50 billion shortfall.

THE CHARTS

SPX DAILY CHART

 


Last Wednesday January 5th I wrote in the Market Wrap that I 
thought the SPX chart was pretty bearish. It had broken the 
50EMA, broken out of a regression channel and was sporting a huge 
MACD divergence. Well it just may have resolved all the 
bearishness and started a recovery. But the challenge now is to 
determine what a recovery looks like. Well first of all take a 
look at the magenta box on the chart. Can you see how the lower 
regression line was broken then tested on January 10th for 
validity? So that would be our first hint - a break above the 
lower line on the regression channel. Secondly you will want to 
see a break and a retest of the 50EMA. Thirdly you will want the 
MACD (I use 8,18,6) to cross back up and then back above the 0 
line. Then the big challenge will be to make new yearly highs. 
Possible - yes it is. Easy - not in your life is anything in the 
stock market easy. 

DOW DAILY CHART

 

I feel that the negative MACD divergence has worked its self out 
on this chart as well but we will have to see the MACD make a 
bullish and get above the 0 line before we can say the MACD is 
once again bullish. In the same vane as the SPX, this market also 
needs to climb above the 50EMA before the bulls can go back in 
the water. New yearly highs would be nice as well. 

I have left the red trendline on the chart as a reminder of the 
Stock Trader's Almanac theory called the Incredible January 
Barometer, which I reviewed in the January 5th Market Wrap. The 
magenta line is a small revision to that theory. 

NASDAQ DAILY CHART

 

The bearish wedge and the negative MACD divergence were just too 
much for this market and when it succumbed to the pressure it did 
it in a big way. However, I do feel that all this bearishness may 
be behind us and like with the other markets it will have to 
prove it to me. First of all MACD has to make a bullish cross 
then print above the 0 line. Secondly the NAZ has to break the 
50EMA and complete a successful retest. Then on to new yearly 
highs? - well we'll see. 

RUSSELL 2000 DAILY CHART 

 

Here we see the same bearish wedge and negative MACD divergence 
that showed up in the NASDAQ chart and once again I feel that 
maybe all the bearishness has worked its self out but this chart 
has a little more work to do than its bigger brethren. For one 
the MACD has a lot further to go before it is once again above 
the 0 line. Next this market has reached a 68% retracement of its 
rally from October lows while the NAZ has only retraced 50% and 
the SPX and the DOW have both only retraced 38%. This market was 
hit a lot harder this year than the bigger cap markets for sure. 

After the bell Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) posted a quarterly 
profit that more than quadrupled due to skyrocketing sales of its 
iPod digital music players and strong demand for its PowerBook 
notebook PCs. AAPL traded to a high of 74.90 in after hours. 

Thursday's economic releases begin with the usual 8:30 release of 
jobless claims, accompanied by the release of December's Advance 
Retail Sales ex-auto, and December's Import Price Index.  They 
continue with natural gas inventories at 10:30 and the 4:30 Money 
Supply release.  Earnings Thursday include before the bell MI and 
MTG and after-the-bell reports by tech stocks CREE, DGII, RMBS, 
SUNW and TMTA, giving investors a look at demand for display 
components, network access and communications devices, chips, 
servers and microprocessors.  

Remember play the probabilities. 

Jane Fox 

=================================================================
WATCH LIST
=================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Williams Cos - WMB - close: 15.99 change: +0.27

WHAT TO WATCH: We came very close to adding WMB to the 
PremierInvestor play list as a bullish candidate.  The stock has 
been digesting its November gains for about six weeks now and 
looks ready to break its trend of lower highs.  Watch for a move 
over $16.25 or $16.50 as a potential entry point.  We would 
target a multi-week move to $20 but its P&F chart actually points 
to a $34 target. 




---

Teekay Shipping - TK - close: 42.62 change: +0.55

WHAT TO WATCH: TK reached very oversold levels after falling from 
$55 in late November to $40 just a few days ago.  We like the 
bounce from round-number support at $40, bolstered by its 200-
dma.  Technicals have turned bullish and its MACD has produced a 
new buy signal.  Our only concern is TK's earnings report on Jan 
19th. We normally don't like to hold over an earnings report.  
Any brave bulls can probably target a move into the $45-47.50 
region.




---

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 37.15 change: +0.74

WHAT TO WATCH: QLGC has rebounded pretty strongly the last couple 
of sessions with two brokers upgrading the stock to a "buy" in 
the last two days.  Shares are nearing resistance at the $37.50 
mark and bulls can use a breakout as a new entry point.   We 
would target a quick move to $40.00.  Watch for earnings on Jan. 
19th. 






-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PHRM $38.68 -1.32 - PHRM is breaking significant support at the 
$40.00 mark.  We would look for shares to test support near 
$35.75.  

ASKJ $28.00 +2.71 - ASKJ turned in a very strong day but remains 
stuck under resistance at its 100-dma and 200-ema near $28.  

CLSR $21.00 +2.30 - Technical traders may want to check out the 
breakout in CLSR over the $20 mark and its 200-dma.

GLBC $18.50 +1.46 - We're also noticing strength in Global 
Crossing.  A move over the $20.00 level might be a momentum entry 
point.  
 

==========================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright 2005  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 01-12-2005
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2005, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  VSEA, PDCO, USB, EP

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    BA, RTN

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

VSEA - tech short -
  No surprises here.  VSEA rallied sharply after the positive INTC
  news.  Watch the $32 level for resistance.
  
PDCO - non-tech long -
  PDCO creeps to a new all-time high.
 
 
USB - non-tech long -
  We were a bit worried when USB traded under the $30.00 level
  today but shares rebounded and now it looks like a potential
  bullish entry point.
 
EP - non-tech long -
  Be ready.  We're still untriggered as we wait for EP to trade
  at $10.61 but the stock appears to be coiling for a move higher.


==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Boeing - BA - close: 51.94 change: +1.12 stop: 49.95 

Company Description:
With a heritage that mirrors the first 100 years of flight, The 
Boeing Company provides products and services to customers in 145 
countries. Boeing has been the premier manufacturer of commercial 
jetliners for more than 40 years and is a global market leader in 
military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, 
and launch systems and services. Total company revenues for 2003 
were $50.5 billion. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Recent news that the U.S. and the E.U. plan to back away from a 
legal fight over alleged subsidies for Boeing and its European 
rival Airbus should be good news for BA.  Bulls will be quick to 
note that shares have been consolidating near support at the $50 
mark and its rising 200-dma.  We believe that after a month of 
trending lower in December shares of BA look poised to make another 
run towards the $55.00-55.50 region.  The MACD indicator is nearing 
a new buy signal and short-term technicals are already positive.  
We want to go long now and target a move to the $55.00 mark.  We do 
not plan to hold over its early February earnings announcement. 

Annotated chart:


Picked on January 12 at $51.94
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      3.2 million 



---

Raytheon Co - RTN - close: 37.25 change: +0.71 stop: 36.25

Company Description:
Raytheon Company, with 2003 sales of $18.1 billion, is an 
industry leader in defense and government electronics, space, 
information technology, technical services, and business and 
special mission aircraft. With headquarters in Waltham, Mass., 
Raytheon employs more than 78,000 people worldwide.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Defense stocks have been somewhat beat up the last few weeks as 
investors worried about cuts in defense spending.  Yet it seems the 
sell-off was only temporary.  The DFI defense index is rebounding 
from very consistent technical support at its rising 100-dma.  This 
has helped RTN form a new short-term bottom above the $36 level and 
now shares of the stock are beginning to break higher again.  The 
MACD indicator is improving and short-term technicals are already 
bullish.  There is some resistance at $38.00 but we suspect that 
RTN could make it to $40.00 by its early February earnings report. 

Annotated chart:


Picked on January 12 at $37.25
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         02/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      1.7 million 




==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa                  105.85     +0.77
CVX     ChevronTexaco              52.49     +1.09
XOM     ExxonMobil                 50.59     +0.74
UTX     United Technologies       101.94     +1.78
BA      Boeing Co                  51.94     +1.12
LMT     Lockheed Martin            55.80     +0.70

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

BTRX    Barrier Therapeutics       19.05     +1.22
GLBC    Global Crossing            18.50     +1.46
RATE    Bankrate Inc               18.80     +1.72
IIG     Imergent Inc               15.70     +1.02
NEOF    Neoforma Inc                8.13     +1.16

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
HCA     HCA Inc                    43.70     +4.02
GENZ    Genzyme Corp               59.91     +2.85
TLM     Talisman Energy            28.80     +1.72
WAT     Waters Corp                48.50     +1.34
PHS     Pacificare Health          59.82     +1.27
DBD     Diebold Inc                57.04     +1.89
TRI     Triad Hospitals            39.84     +2.94

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

UPS     United Parcel Service      77.18     -6.12
CME     Chicago Merc. Exchnge     207.10     -5.34
ACS     Affiliated Computer        56.06     -1.65
NCR     NCR Corp                   64.73     -2.46
MTG     MGIC Investment            66.00     -1.11
TS      Tenaris                    45.21     -1.08
OMX     Officemax Inc              28.88     -1.42
CBL     CBL & Associates           67.68     -1.77

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-----------------------------------------

CHRW    C.H.Robinson Worldwide     53.42     -1.79
SNDA    Shanda Interactive         37.21     -3.74
PETC    Petco Animal Supplies      37.63     -1.27

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2005  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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