No Decision Yet
OK, this is getting tiring--this was written two weeks ago and repeated last week--"For over a week now we've been in a relatively tight range that has worked its way slowly higher. Whenever we see price action chop its way lower or higher it's usually a sign that the move is running out of steam." Change the above to read three weeks now instead of one week. One look at the daily candles and it's like a blinking green and red light for go-stop-go-stop. There's been no follow through on an intraday basis as well as on a daily basis. This too shall pass and we'll get a couple of session's worth of a trend. In the meantime there's obviously a major battle between the bulls and the bears and I suspect whichever side blinks first will be a result to stops getting tripped and the move will likely be fast. Catch that move correctly and you'll probably get a good ride. On the other hand, if you're positioned wrong and you don't take the stop, you might feel some pain. Making it a little more difficult is the fact that different indices are giving very different pictures. It's a good time to lighten up your positions, trade lightly and quickly and don't get yourself caught stalled on the train tracks with a freight train barreling down on you.
New Long Plays
ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 58.44 change: +1.71 stop: 55.90
Why We Like It:
Picked on June 09 at $58.44
New Short Plays
Long Play Updates
Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 38.00 chg: -0.03 stop: 36.26
No change from our previous update. Our target is the $38.50-39.00 range.
Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Canon - CAJ - close: 54.66 change: -0.73 stop: 52.85
CAJ is showing a little bit of volatility after the Japanese stock market lost more than 100 points today. Thus far CAJ remains above short-term support at the $54.00 level. Watch for a move back over $55.00 as a new bullish entry point.
Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Caremark - CMX - close: 44.40 chg: -0.00 stop: 41.95
No changes here. Trades can watch for a bounce from here and its four-week trendline of support - or - watch for a dip back toward the $42.00-42.50 range, which should also act as support.
Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 28.32 change: -0.32 stop: 25.49
The Dow Transportation index under performed the market again today and that weighed on shares of GBX. We would step back and wait for shares to dip into the $27.50-28.00 range before considering new bullish positions. Actually traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce from this region before initiating plays.
Picked on June 01 at $28.67
General Electric - GE - close: 36.79 chg: -0.01 stop: 34.95
No change here. We're still waiting for GE to dip into the $36.00-35.50 range before going long the stock.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 34.08 change: -0.37 stop: 30.95
No change from our previous update.
Picked on June
05 at $34.33
Humana - HUM - close: 38.56 chg: +1.06 stop: 34.99 *new*
Healthcare stocks showed a lot of strength today and HUM added 2.8 percent on average volume. The bounce from yesterday's pull back could be used as a new bullish entry point but keep in mind that our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $34.99 but more conservative traders could probably get away with a tighter stop than that.
Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.51 chg: +0.11 stop: 24.60
No change here either. We're still waiting for MSFT to pull back into the $25.25-25.00 range before going long the stock.
May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 21.28 change: +0.13 stop: 20.45
MVL produced a decent rebound from today's low at the $20.80 mark. We would consider this a new bullish entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait a day or two to confirm the bounce is going to see some follow through.
on June 01 at $21.86
Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 30.51 change: -0.24 stop: 29.99
This is it. This looks like do or die time for NCX. The stock has pulled back toward support in the $30.00-30.50 region. If shares don't bounce from here tomorrow we look for the stock to breakdown and stop us out at $29.99.
on June 01 at $33.03
Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.83 chg: -0.01 stop: 5.45
Traders may want to turn defensive on SIRI. We've been expecting a potential dip toward the $5.75 level and that's what we got. Shares actually hit a low of $5.60 this afternoon as SIRI tested technical support near its 21-dma and 100-dma. We would not suggest new bullish positions given what looks like an impending sell signal in the MACD indicator. We suspect that today's weakness in SIRI is due to the drop in shares of larger rival XMSR, who announced a $300 million sale of common stock in another public offering.
Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 37.45 change: +0.82 stop: 35.99
It looks like YHOO bulls have been saved by another broker upgrade for YHOO. Actually Smith Barney started new coverage on the stock with a "buy" rating. This helped propel YHOO's 2.2 percent rebound following the previous two days of declines. We hesitate to suggest new plays here given the negative slant to the technical indicators but if you were looking for a new short-term bullish entry point in YHOO this is probably it. Our target is the $39.00 level.
Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Short Play Updates
Ball Corp - BLL - close: 37.53 chg: -0.02 stop: 38.15
No change from our previous update.
Picked on May 05 at $38.98
ManTech Intl - MANT - close: 29.13 change: +0.88 stop: 30.05
The volatility continues in MANT. The stock continued with yesterday's bounce and pushed back above its 10-dma. At this point in time we'd probably look for shares to retest the $29.75-30.00 level. Remember, we were longer-term bullish on MANT but were trying to capture a short-term pull back in the stock following Tuesday's reversal. At this time we would not suggest new bearish positions.
Picked on June 07 at $28.42
Closed Long Plays
Greenhill & Co - GHL - close: 36.95 chg: +0.31 stop: 34.99
Target achieved. Shares of GHL finally popped above resistance at the $37.00 level around lunchtime today. We are exiting per our game plan at $37.00.
Picked on May 09 at $34.11
Closed Short Plays
Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Keene H. Little and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.
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