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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 06/14/2005

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Slowly Creeping Higher

The bulls continue to push the market higher but at a very slow creep. Instead of two steps forward one-step back it is more like 10 steps forward 9 steps back. Several strong buy programs have pushed the market higher the last three weeks but all were almost completely erased before the close. On Monday we saw an 80-point Dow gain reversed to end up only fractionally. On Tuesday a morning buy program spike was almost completely erased only 30 min later. Still the underlying bid remains and the inchworm continues to climb higher. 

Dow Chart - Daily

Nasdaq Chart - Daily

The broken record of mixed economics continues to play with the PPI falling -0.6% in May and erasing the +0.6% gain in April. The consensus was for a minor drop of -0.2%. Today's number was the biggest drop since April 2003 and took some inflation fear out of the market. Unfortunately the drop came on an easing of energy prices in early May and that dip has been completely erased. Heating oil is still up +44% over last year despite an -8% drop in May. With worries about shortages this fall the prices are not going to fall far before surging to new highs. Consumers hoping to fill tanks early this year to take advantage of the drop in prices had better hurry. Conditions in the oil market are accelerating rapidly. 

For the same May period retail sales fell -0.5% and also well below consensus estimates of only a -0.2% drop. Falling sales in Gasoline, autos and apparel led the declines. Colder weather than normal put pressure on summer apparel sales. High gas prices kept consumers from car shopping and put the squeeze on non-essential driving. The biggest gainer was building material dealers as the summer building season got underway. 

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The economic calendar picks up on Wednesday with the CPI, Mortgage Applications, Business Inventories, NY-Empire Mfg Survey, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Index, Beige Book, Quarterly Services, OPEC meeting and Oil and Gas Inventories. It is going to be a very busy day. 

The current OPEC outlook is for an immediate increase of +500,000 bpd to 28mbpd. Nobody expects to see a drop of additional oil since current production already exceeds this level. It is merely a move to put the production quota more inline with actual production. There is also a consensus for another +500,000 upgrade as early as July in an effort to build inventories well in advance of the fall demand cycle. OPEC expects demand in Q4 to increase by +1.5 mbpd over 2004 and there are some serious worries that OPEC will not be able to keep up. The IEA estimates Q4 demand will increase by 1.6mbpd. China and the U.S. are going to be adding oil to their strategic petroleum reserves in August to the tune of more than 100mb. This should put a serious crimp in any excess inventory. OPEC members being interviewed on the street actually expressed concern that they would not be able to meet demand. This is a huge change in posture given the oceans of oil comments in the past. 

There are growing claims that the Saudi fields are in decline and they have been damaged by pumping at peak production for the last year. Current estimates are for an -8% annual decline in production from existing fields due to declining output, field damage and excess water injection. With Saudi currently pumping just under 9mbpd that -8% decline equals nearly -750,000 bpd this year and that percentage increases every year. Saudi had previously said it would add +5 mbpd of production by 2012 but recent comments suggest that only +800,000 bpd of light crude would be added during that seven year period. That increase was from improvements to two existing fields but experts are now saying that the number will be less than 400K total. With the -8% annual decline in existing fields reported above it actually means Saudi output will be losing about -3mbpd over the next five years. That +5 mbpd was to be the result of new exploration and development and as such is still in question. Even if it comes to pass it is still very far away. The Saudis are actually already using water injection in a new well that just came online. This proves there is stress to produce because water injection is only used for late stage wells as it hastens the eventual decline. It appears the cracks are appearing in the Saudi claims for oceans of oil. Either that or their ocean has sprung a leak. 

Crude rose to $56 on Monday on supply comments from OPEC members and fears that the heating oil demand was going to be early this year. It fell only slightly today to close at $55 ahead of the oil inventory numbers tomorrow. The gulf storm failed to cause any real damage to platforms but there were still some production facilities closed as of late today. Everything was expected to reopen later in the week. Still, much of the production in that region was shut off for several days and we don't really know how the inventories will be affected. December crude, the real contract to watch for end of year shortages settled at $58 after hovering just under $59 on Monday. 

December Crude Contract 

In the endless discussions of oil on CNBC this week there was one in particular that struck home. One analyst was talking about increased security in Saudi on the basis of increased threats. Robert McFarlane, former National Security Advisor, said any average terrorist shooter could drop a few mortar rounds into Ras Tanura in less than a minute that could take 6-9 months to repair. Ras Tanura is the oldest Saudi refinery and the second largest. A shutdown of this refinery would be a crippling blow to Saudi production and its ability to meet demand. He predicted $100 oil almost immediately should an attack like this occur. Personally I believe it is only a matter of time before these high profile refineries become targets and terrorists will probably wait to strike when demand is greatest and the most damage to prices will occur. 

The Saudi oil minister at the Vienna OPEC meeting was literally begging for new refineries to be built. The problem remains that they are depleting the "light" oil that most global refineries can process and the remaining Saudi production is the heavy sour crude that costs more to refine. There is a real shortage of those refineries and Valero, a current LEAP play, is the largest in the U.S. While other refineries will end up begging for light crude before the year is over Valero will have no shortage of heavy crude and that puts them in the right place at the right time. They buy the heavy crude much cheaper but the refined gasoline still sells for the same premium prices other light refiners will be getting. Essentially Saudi is right. If more refiners would switch to process sour crude it would extend the peak oil date by several more years. Unfortunately it costs more than a billion dollars to make the conversion and it produces substantially more environmental pollution for the plant. This prevents many existing refineries from wanting to make the switch or get the permits. The bottom line is still an impending oil disaster over the next two to five years that will make the bursting of the Internet bubble tame by comparison. 

In other stock news today the biggest winner was Best Buy, which surged +8.68 after reporting a +85% jump in profits on rising margins. BBY had shifted strategy over the last couple years as it fought with competitor Circuit City for market share. The most improvement came in sales of digital music players, digital TVs and video games. Same store sales rose +4.4% year over year and that was on top of +8.3% gain the prior year. For the 67 stores fully converted to their customer centric model the same store sales were up +9%. Its newest customer centric ploy was the formation of the Geek Squad where BBY hired 8,500 technicians to perform upgrades and repairs both in store and at customer sites. Geek Squad revenue has more than doubled since last summer's rollout of the service. Today's strong jump to $67.81 marks an all time high. Circuit City reports earnings on Friday and they should be interesting. BBY results are going to be hard to top. Puts anyone?

Another previous high-flyer, Krispy Kreme, fell -8% to $7.86 after warning that sales had fallen another -17% and they would lose more money in the current quarter. JP Morgan said, "Business conditions remain very poor with no sign of improvement," and "Continued financial viability of franchisees is a major issue." KKD hit a high of $49.74 in 2003 but its donut business is turning stale as it follows the Boston Chicken model into oblivion. Run, don't walk to the exits. 

The Russell surprised everyone so far this week with a +10 point spike instead of a -10 point drop. Historically the Russell rebalance tends to pressure the index as stocks being removed are sold. Evidently there are enough intra index changes between the Russell-1000 and Russell-2000 as well as capitalization changes to require fund managers to buy more at the top end of the 2K than they are selling at the bottom end. The Russell broke over 630 resistance today and closed at 634. Major resistance remains 640 but if the trend continues that could be an intraday bump in the road. The all time high was 656 was set last December. The Russell had paused at just over 620 while waiting for the rebalance announcement but after closing at the high for the day and a three month high there appears to be no looking back. 

Russell-2000 Chart - daily

SOX Chart - Daily

The SOX is doing the reverse of the Russell with a drop to 425 and a three-week low. This kept the Nasdaq in negative territory most of the day with the +0.08 close only a minor victory over the sellers. The Nasdaq rally in May has confounded the experts. There were few reversals to consolidate and those that did appear were short and shallow. Without any backfilling most analysts are suggesting there is a new correction in our future. Instead what we are seeing is consolidation in place with no real selling. This is keeping the bears off guard given the very real occurrence of buy program induced short squeezes we have seen over the last couple of weeks. No good spike has gone unpunished but the bears have yet to be able to gain any traction to the downside. The best they have been able to do is push the index back into its recent consolidation range. They say don't short a dull market and our markets have definitely been dull over the last three weeks. There have been five certified short squeezes caused by buy programs since May 24th. None have lasted and the Nasdaq closed today only +7 points above the close on May-24th. Three weeks of relative boredom interspersed by five hours of sheer terror for the bears. Each buy program squeeze buoyed bullish hopes but lasted barely more than an hour. If we are having fun now I can't wait until the summer doldrums arrive. 

Unlike the Nasdaq the Dow is starting to show signs of progress with progressively higher highs, if only by a handful of points. The last two days have found rising support just over 10500 and an assault on 10600 appears to be in our future. There is also a nice progression of higher lows dating back to that May-25th dip and unlike the Nasdaq each buy program spike was not completely retraced. This is a strange set of circumstances for an early summer market. Given the Greenspan comments on further hikes and the lukewarm Intel update the markets are actually behaving rather well. 

I said on Sunday that I saw bullish internals under the market and the potential for a continue move higher overcame much of my bearish bias. I believe there are quite a few sideline bears beginning to see the light and the next breakout, over 10600, could attract a lot of attention. To me the Russell was the key. With the Russell expected to dive on the rebalance news most traders were short heading into the news. Heck, I wanted to be short it today but it was a losing proposition once the afternoon rebound began. 

I believe we are rapidly reaching the point where a directional move will occur. While my bias is still "emotionally" to the downside I am not going to fight the tape. Should the Dow break over 10600 I believe we will see traders begin to chase price and that tends to produce a new leg up. I am not yet convinced the breakout will happen but if it does and with the help of the Russell we may see the SOX/Nasdaq sellers get caught in yet another squeeze and one that may stick. To temper any excitement I may have imparted I still believe we will see another bout of profit taking and portfolio rebalancing in the July-Sept time frame. The flurry of economic reports on Wednesday could change market sentiment drastically so, like always, enter passively and exit aggressively.

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
MHO None

New Long Plays

M/I Homes Inc - MHO - close: 50.98 chg: +0.83 stop: 49.65

Company Description:
M/I Homes, Inc. is one of the nation's leading builders of single-family homes, having sold more than 60,000 homes. The Company's homes are marketed and sold under the trade names M/I Homes and Showcase Homes. The Company has homebuilding operations in Columbus and Cincinnati, Ohio; Indianapolis, Indiana; Tampa, Orlando and West Palm Beach, Florida; Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina; and the Virginia and Maryland suburbs of Washington, D.C. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The homebuilding sector has been a pillar of strength in the market despite all the talk about rising interest rates and worries over a housing bubble. Instead of chasing some of the leaders in the sector like TOL, PHM, and RYL who are all trading near their highs, we're drawn to MHO. MHO looks a lot less overbought and has a chance to play catch up with the rest of the sector. A quick look at the P&F chart shows that MHO is bouncing from a test of support and its buy signal points to a $69.00 target. It is true that analyzing the daily chart shows some mixed signals. Currently the MACD has recently produced a sell signal. Yet we suspect that today's bounce from the $50.00 level could be the beginning of its next leg higher. Plus, bulls have to deal with potential resistance with a trendline stretching from the February and March highs crossing overhead near $52.50 (see chart). That's why we're going to use a relatively tight stop loss under the recent low at $49.65. Traders may want to wait for MHO to confirm today's bounce by trading over the $52.00 level. An alternative entry would be to wait for the DJUSHB home construction index to breakout over the 950 level - then evaluate MHO for a bullish entry point. We are going to set our short-term target at $55.00. Should the play last more than four weeks we will not hold over MHO's late July earnings report.

Picked on June 14 at $50.98
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 143 thousand

New Short Plays

None today.

Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

3 BODY-->

Long Play Updates

Archstone-Smith - ASN - close: 38.33 chg: +0.23 stop: 36.26 

ASN is almost there. The stock is nearing our target in the $38.50-39.00 range. More conservative types may want to exit early in case ASN fails under resistance again.

Picked on May 06 at $36.26
Change since picked: + 2.07
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 811 thousand

---

Canon - CAJ - close: 54.15 change: +0.36 stop: 52.85

No change from our weekend update. 

Picked on May 29 at $55.24
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 157 thousand

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Caremark - CMX - close: 43.33 chg: -0.21 stop: 41.95 

It looks like CMX might bounce from the $43.00 level but we remain cautious. If we don't see a bounce soon we are going to exit this play early!

Picked on May 09 at $43.30
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million 

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Greenbrier Co - GBX - close: 29.14 change: +0.54 stop: 25.49

GBX is showing some signs of life again. The stock remains stuck in a sideways trading range between $28.00 and $29.50 but more aggressive traders might want to consider new positions on today's bounce from its simple 200-dma. More conservative players can wait for GBX to trade above $29.50 before initiating new long positions. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. 

Picked on June 01 at $28.67
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 06/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 227 thousand

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General Electric - GE - close: 36.41 chg: -0.14 stop: 34.95

GE is slowly getting closer to our suggested entry point but thus far we remain on the sidelines. Our plan is to go long the stock on a dip into the $36.00-35.50 range. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million 

---

Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 35.10 change: +0.19 stop: 30.95

The consolidation continues to narrow for GGC but today is the first close over the $35.00 level in weeks. Our target is the $38.50-39.50 range. 

Picked on June 05 at $34.33
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand

---

ExxonMobil - XOM - close: 58.55 change: +0.10 stop: 55.90

XOM continues to slowly drift higher. Readers can choose to go long here, wait for a possible dip toward the $57.50-58.00 region or a breakout over $59.00. 

Picked on June 09 at $58.44
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million 

---

Humana - HUM - close: 39.48 chg: +0.91 stop: 35.95 *new*

It was another strong day for health insurance stocks like HUM. Shares of HUM added 2.3 percent. The stock is very close to our target range of $39.75-40.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here. We are going to raise our stop loss to $35.95. 

Picked on May 09 at $36.33
Change since picked: + 3.15
Earnings Date 05/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million 

---

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.31 chg: -0.12 stop: 24.60

Ding! We have finally been triggered in our "buy the dip" play in MSFT. Shares dipped to $25.24 near support at its 50-dma and 100-dma. Our suggested entry point was to buy a dip in the $25.00-25.25 region. While we have opened the play more conservative traders may want to wait for MSFT to show signs of a bounce first before considering new positions. Our stop loss is at $24.60 but if MSFT trades under $25.00 we'll probably exit early. 

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70.8 million 

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Marvel Enterprises - MVL - close: 21.00 change: -0.08 stop: 20.45

Lack of participation in today's rally is not a good sign. We continue to suggest caution and wait for MVL to trade back over $21.50 or $22.00 before considering bullish plays. If we don't see a bounce soon we'll probably close this play early.

Picked on June 01 at $21.86
Change since picked: - 0.86
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 911 thousand

---

Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 32.72 change: +1.53 stop: 29.99

It is amazing how things can change in just a couple of days. NCX confirmed yesterday's rebound with a 4.9 percent rally today on volume almost up to its average. The move also put NCX above its simple 40-dma. We are turning more bullish on the stock and would consider new longs here but more conservative traders might want to wait for NCX to trade over month-long resistance near $33.10 first.

Picked on June 01 at $33.03
Change since picked: - 0.31
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 660 thousand

---

Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 5.90 chg: -0.09 stop: 5.45 

The big news for SIRI today was a deal to offer programming to Sprint. Yet the headlines did not provide enough juice to push SIRI above resistance in the $6.00-6.10 range. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $5.60 level.

Picked on May 22 at $ 5.65
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 40.0 million 

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Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 21.23 change: -0.02 stop: 19.99

SOHU is taking a breather today with another mild session consolidating above the $21.00 level. No change from our previous update. 

Picked on June 13 at $21.25
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 924 thousand

---

Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 36.80 change: -0.10 stop: 35.99 

We are growing increasingly wary over YHOO's performance and may choose to exit early if we don't see a rebound soon. 

Picked on May 18 at $36.05
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.9 million

Short Play Updates

None

Closed Long Plays

None

Closed Short Plays

ManTech Intl - MANT - close: 29.56 change: +0.57 stop: 30.05

We are pulling the plug early on MANT. The stock continues to drift higher. Bears could argue that the rebound has been made on low volume and MANT should have overhead resistance near $30.00. We would agree but we'd rather cut our losses now than see MANT continue to climb. 

Picked on June 07 at $28.42
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 08/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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