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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 08/10/2005

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Wounded bear calls on oil

Stocks surged higher in early morning trade despite a negative reaction to networking equipment giant Cisco Systems' (CSCO) $18.25 -6.93% tepid outlook into next quarter.

Early morning reports from the Division of Wildlife showed a record number of bears being harvested, but by late morning with advancers outnumbering decliners by a hefty 4-to-1 margin at the big board, and 2-to-1 margin at the NASDAQ, there was one report of a hunter found crawling on hands and knees near a remote oil well pad in the high mountains of Montana.

In an unsubstantiated report, the bear hunter was evidently trying to set a Guinness Book of World Records by shooting a grizzly bear with a slingshot.

Hmmm... hunting Grizzly with a slingshot and a pocket full of marbles.

Buy program premiums were found after the EIA said crude oil inventories jumped by 2.79 million barrels in the recent week after showing a fractional 196,000 barrel build in the prior week. And while the report was initially described as "very bearish" for oil traders, it may have been forgotten that crude oil inventories for the week ended July 1 and July 8 had both shown draws of over 3.6 million. EIA data from July 22 showed a hefty draw of 2.2 million barrels.

No, I wasn't smart, or dumb enough to try and short the highs based on the headline crude oil numbers, but I hadn't lost all my marbles either. I've been tracking the weekly EIA data and while today's report does suggest that supply and demand may be leveling out a bit, the psychology of higher oil prices may well have saved many a broader equity bear in today's trade.

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Other data released by the EIA showed continued draws in gasoline, with inventories falling by 2.08 million barrels. Refiners continue to crank out distillates, with inventories adding another 2.6 million barrels.

Over the past month, crude oil inventories are down just 0.05%, or 152,000 barrels, down 2.5%, or 8.1 million barrels for the past two months, but down 4.0%, or 13.2 million barrels from 3-months ago.

Yes... when you start to look where inventories are vs. 3-months ago, the latest week's crude oil build is a bit like shooting a Grizzly with a slingshot.

Hey, if there's a silver lining in the "oil cloud," it might be that crude oil inventories have built by 26.5 million barrels versus this time last year. That's a 9.0% gain from last year.

If there's one area of the markets that bears are at the top of the food chain, it remains the energy complex. September Crude Oil futures (cl05u) settled up $1.83, or 2.90% at $64.90 and hit another contract high. September Unleaded Gas futures (hu05u) settled up $0.0739, or 4.06% at $1.8963, while September Heating Oil futures (ho05u) finished up $0.0622, or 3.5% at $1.8388.

Miners, oil, oil service, natural gas and health insurers were atop today's sector winner's list, while networking, Internet, and combined telecom, all of which Cisco Systems (CSCO) is a component, paced declines from mid-session to the close.

Insurance giant American Intl. Group (AIG) $62.24 +1.33% traded as high as $63.73 after reporting Q2 net income of $3.99 billion, or $1.53 a share. The Dow component cited strong results in overseas operations and surging capital gains offsetting lower business volume in some of its U.S. units. The company's CEO said the firm is cooperating as much as possible with accounting probes.

On the topic of accounting, chartered mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNM) $52.64 -3.99% said it was pushing back 2004 results. The company now expects to release 2004 results in second half of 2006 and may curtail disclosures while it completes restatement. Executives refused to provide details on riskier assets it had acquired recently.

Both AIG and FNM's news came prior to the opening bell.

U.S. Market Watch - 08/10/05 Close

News out of the Federal Government had the U.S. budget deficit falling in July to a deficit of $52.79 billion, which was narrower than the Congressional Budget Office's projection of $58 billion and last year's deficit of $69.16 billion. Fiscal year-to-date budget deficit stands at $302.59 billion, compared with year-earlier deficit of $396.22 billion.

Unocal (UCL) $66.10 +0.83% voted to sell the company to Chevron (CVX) $62.48 +2.05% for about $18 billion. A large majority elected to receive all cash for their shares. Chevron expects to gain oil and natural gas reserves in Asia and North America as part of the takeover.

In other merger-related news, Yahoo (YHOO) $34.20 +0.38% said it is set to pay $1 billion and hand China operations over to Alibaba.com in return for a 35% stake in Chinese e-commerce operator. If consummated, Alibaba would maintain Yahoo brands for its search engine, but would gain access to users and advertisers.

Tonight's extended session was rather quiet with media-giant News Corp. (NWS) $17.44 +1.45% edging up 58 cents to $18.02 after saying Q4 net income rose 67% vs. a year ago.

CV Therapeutics (CVTX) $25.83 -2.34% fell 62 cents during the regular session, but jumped to $27.55 in late trading after the company said its first of two Phase III studies Regadenoson, which helps detect coronary artery disease, met primary endpoint.

I want to quickly review the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 354.33 -0.52%, which is down another 2.24% since our visit last Wednesday.

Several weeks ago I mentioned that sources deep within the "bear camp" would eventually start pointing to "higher yields" among the major Treasury maturities as being doom and gloom for stocks. You didn't hear much of that this morning, but I still think (those of you that have followed my commentary over the YEARS) that while the Fed methodically raises rates from historically low levels, we need some SELLING in the longer-dated maturities to widen the spread.

The daily bar chart of the BIX.X isn't the best chart to show intra-day action, but we can see how the BIX.X did show some life this morning. Go back up to our intra-day breadth table and we can see some "relief" from the 5-year to 30-year Treasury yield spread on an intra-day basis. The banks were bidding.

But you'll have to take my word that when oil prices broke to a new record high, just about EVERY EQUITY GROUP reversed gains at that very minute!

I say "oil is psychological." Yes, it is also a fundamental "tax" on the economy, but at times, you can really see how a higher trade in oil becomes the "psychological trigger" for selling of equities.

I don't mean to laugh, but when oil broke to a new high, it was like equity trader's eyes popped open wide. Yeah... kind of like shooting a Grizzly bear in the fanny, then realizing what you've just done. Some say you're supposed to just "play dead" and take your chances, cause if you run, that bear is going to run you down and eat you up.

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) - Daily Interval

Again, the BIX.X is just a portion of the financials, and while the banks struggled the past 5-days, brokers held their own, insurance was soft, but the U.S. Market Watch shows both the BIX.X and BKX.X a point of contention, and still NO HELP for bulls to fully exterminate the bearish population.

Don't just "forget" or write the banks off and predict doom. Understand why they will trade weak, or strong, based on loan generation, but also their LENDING SPREADS.

S&P 500 Index Chart - Daily Intervals

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (red) pivot analysis retracement. The levels, or "zones" I see as being important support/resistance are colored in yellow.

Do you see how today's bar looks a little similar to the BIX.X bar? A nice pop, but then the reversal.

My point here is that the SPX.X challenges the highs again, without ANY real help from the BIX.X since its relative high "top" on July 15.

With bears starting to grumble that it is "higher yield" that is doom and gloom for equities, traders/investors need to follow the BIX.X as an important sector/index.

The BIX.X does suggest broader equity cautiousness at this point, but it has been my observation, that just when the BEARS count them out, that's when they rally strongest. It's not a "finite" 10-year yield, or a "finite" price of oil either that triggers buying or selling in the group.
 

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None HANS

New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

Hansen Natural - HANS - close: 43.37 chg: -3.23 stop: 47.51

Company Description:
Hansen Natural Corporation markets and distributes Hansen's Natural Sodas, Signature Sodas, fruit juice Smoothies, Energy drinks, Energade energy sports drinks, E20 Energy Water, functional drinks, Sparkling Lemonades and Orangeades, multi-vitamin juice drinks in aseptic packaging, Junior Juice juice, iced teas, lemonades and juice cocktails, apple juice, cider and juice blends, Blue Sky brand carbonated beverages, Monster Energy(TM) brand energy drinks, Lost Energy(TM) brand energy drinks, Rumba(TM) brand energy juice and Joker(TM) brand energy drinks. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
HANS recently reported earnings that came in above analyst estimates but investors sold the news. The stock also split 2-for-1 and the recent weakness could be post-split depression as momentum traders do some profit taking. Looking at the chart you can clearly see a double-top pattern with resistance at the $54.00 level. Further more the sell-off today broke its rising trendline of support and technical support at its simple 50-dma. The bearish reversal has also produced a new sell signal on its P&F chart that now points to a $32.00 target. We are going to suggest bearish positions here under $44.00 but more conservative traders may want to wait for HANS to trade under $42.00, which looks like it could be short-term support. It may also be worth while to wait a day or two and see if HANS bounces. The stock is down well off its highs and could bounce back (oversold bounce) toward the $45-46 region before turning lower again. Our initial target is the $38.00-37.50 range just above its 100-dma.

Picked on August 10 at $43.37
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
 

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 35.95 chg: +0.90 stop: 33.24*new*

ERICY displayed a lot of relative strength today with a 2.5% pop higher. This pushed ERICY to new multi-year highs with volume coming in way above average. Needless to say this is a very bullish move and suggests more strength ahead. More patient traders can look for a dip back toward the $35.00 level as a new entry point in case ERICY fills this morning's gap. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $33.25, just under the simple 50-dma.

Picked on August 03 at $35.19
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

---

Sara Lee - SLE - close: 20.02 chg: -0.38 stop: 19.74

Wall Street did not respond positively to news that Tupperware (TUP) was buying a direct sales unit from SLE for $557 million. According to an AP article the SLE unit markets beauty and personal care products in Latin American and Asia. Looking at shares of SLE we do note that the selling stopped and SLE produced a minor bounce from its simple 50-dma near its lows. More aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions on a bounce from this level. We remain on the sidelines with our suggested entry point to go long at $20.75 (above its 100-dma).

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

Assured Guaranty - AGO - close: 22.15 chg: -0.31 stop: 24.05

Our bearish play in AGO is now open. Shares actually plummeted at the open this morning trading through our entry point at $22.39 triggering the play. Interestingly enough AGO bounced from the $22.10 level this morning and rallied with the markets only to fail almost as quickly near the $22.50 region. If you missed the entry point this morning we would still consider shorts positions at current levels. More conservative players may want to wait for a decline under the $22.00 level, which might act as round-number support. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $22.39
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 229 thousand

---

A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 47.10 chg: +0.39 stop: 49.01

As expected ASVI did bounce today. We are not suggesting new positions right here. Watch for a failed rally under the $48.00 level as a potential entry point.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

---

ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 12.17 change: +0.04 stop: 13.26

ATYT produced a very minor bounce off the $12.00 level today. We remain bearish and continue to target the $11.50-11.20 range.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

---

Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.27 chg: -0.05 stop: 46.25

No change from our weekend update. We are targeting the $40.25-40.00 range before its October earnings.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

---

D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.66 change: -0.26 stop: 40.51

We don't see any change from our previous update. The early morning rally failed in DHI but we'd still be prepared for a bounce back toward the $39 region or its 50-dma before DHI continues lower. Our target is the $35.00-34.50 range.

Picked on August 07 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

---

Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.35 chg: -0.15 stop: 29.01

IGT gapped higher this morning but the rally failed at the $28.00 level (again). We see this as another bearish entry point for traders to short the stock. Our target is the $24.50-24.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.56 chg: +0.26 stop: 25.11

Hmm... JNPR out performed the markets today and more specifically the tech sector and the networking industry. Maybe investors thought that if CSCO guided lower for its Q1 that it might mean JNPR is stealing market share. Or it might just be an oversold bounce in JNPR as it rebounds from short-term support near $23.00. We remain bearish given JNPR's head-and-shoulders pattern and continue tot arget the $21.50 region. Any failed rally under $24.00 can be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

---

LifePoint Hosp. - LPNT - cls: 47.01 chg: +0.06 stop: 47.26

No change in our stance here. We remain on the sidelines watching LPNT for a breakdown below the $45.00 level. Today's rally failed at the 50-dma but the very short-term trend is up. We may choose to close this play unopened if LPNT doesn't cooperate soon.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 686 thousand

---

Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 45.36 chg: -0.82 stop: 48.01

Today's action in RCL might suggest that its oversold bounce is now over. We would consider new bearish positions here but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new low under $45.00 first. Our target is the $41.25-41.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

---

Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 47.45 chg: +0.06 stop: 50.51

TRI paused in its recent descent and it may be time to look for an oversold bounce back toward its simple 10-dma near $49 but that doesn't change our bearish outlook. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand

---

Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.37 chg: -0.12 stop: 29.01

XLNX continues to sink lower and is currently testing its simple 50-dma. Our target is the $26.10-26.00 range.

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million

---

Yellow Roadway - YELL - close: 52.16 chg: -0.19 stop: 55.01

We are surprised to see the Dow Transports closing in the green today with crude oil hitting another record high. It is noteworthy that the bounce in YELL appears to be failing. Readers may want to initiate new short positions once YELL trades back under the $52.00 mark.

Picked on August 08 at $51.77
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 25.91 change: -0.66 stop: 30.01

We are closing this play unopened. We have been trying to play it somewhat safe by carefully choosing a bearish entry point in ADBE but it looks like we missed it. Readers may want to keep an eye on it and consider a failed rally under its simple 10-dma as a potential entry point to be evaluated. Today's low under the $26 level looks like bad news as it breaks the trend line of support connecting ADBE's lower lows over the past eight months.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.8 million
 


Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Long Play Updates

LM Ericsson - ERICY - close: 35.95 chg: +0.90 stop: 33.24*new*

ERICY displayed a lot of relative strength today with a 2.5% pop higher. This pushed ERICY to new multi-year highs with volume coming in way above average. Needless to say this is a very bullish move and suggests more strength ahead. More patient traders can look for a dip back toward the $35.00 level as a new entry point in case ERICY fills this morning's gap. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $33.25, just under the simple 50-dma.

Picked on August 03 at $35.19
Change since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

---

Sara Lee - SLE - close: 20.02 chg: -0.38 stop: 19.74

Wall Street did not respond positively to news that Tupperware (TUP) was buying a direct sales unit from SLE for $557 million. According to an AP article the SLE unit markets beauty and personal care products in Latin American and Asia. Looking at shares of SLE we do note that the selling stopped and SLE produced a minor bounce from its simple 50-dma near its lows. More aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions on a bounce from this level. We remain on the sidelines with our suggested entry point to go long at $20.75 (above its 100-dma).

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

Assured Guaranty - AGO - close: 22.15 chg: -0.31 stop: 24.05

Our bearish play in AGO is now open. Shares actually plummeted at the open this morning trading through our entry point at $22.39 triggering the play. Interestingly enough AGO bounced from the $22.10 level this morning and rallied with the markets only to fail almost as quickly near the $22.50 region. If you missed the entry point this morning we would still consider shorts positions at current levels. More conservative players may want to wait for a decline under the $22.00 level, which might act as round-number support. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $22.39
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 229 thousand

---

A.S.V.Inc - ASVI - close: 47.10 chg: +0.39 stop: 49.01

As expected ASVI did bounce today. We are not suggesting new positions right here. Watch for a failed rally under the $48.00 level as a potential entry point.

Picked on July 28 at $45.87
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 120 thousand

---

ATI Tech. - ATYT - close: 12.17 change: +0.04 stop: 13.26

ATYT produced a very minor bounce off the $12.00 level today. We remain bearish and continue to target the $11.50-11.20 range.

Picked on July 17 at $12.83
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

---

Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 44.27 chg: -0.05 stop: 46.25

No change from our weekend update. We are targeting the $40.25-40.00 range before its October earnings.

Picked on July 28 at $44.77
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

---

D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.66 change: -0.26 stop: 40.51

We don't see any change from our previous update. The early morning rally failed in DHI but we'd still be prepared for a bounce back toward the $39 region or its 50-dma before DHI continues lower. Our target is the $35.00-34.50 range.

Picked on August 07 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

---

Intl Game Tech. - IGT - cls: 27.35 chg: -0.15 stop: 29.01

IGT gapped higher this morning but the rally failed at the $28.00 level (again). We see this as another bearish entry point for traders to short the stock. Our target is the $24.50-24.00 range.

Picked on July 21 at $27.21
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.56 chg: +0.26 stop: 25.11

Hmm... JNPR out performed the markets today and more specifically the tech sector and the networking industry. Maybe investors thought that if CSCO guided lower for its Q1 that it might mean JNPR is stealing market share. Or it might just be an oversold bounce in JNPR as it rebounds from short-term support near $23.00. We remain bearish given JNPR's head-and-shoulders pattern and continue tot arget the $21.50 region. Any failed rally under $24.00 can be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on July 21 at $23.90
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

---

LifePoint Hosp. - LPNT - cls: 47.01 chg: +0.06 stop: 47.26

No change in our stance here. We remain on the sidelines watching LPNT for a breakdown below the $45.00 level. Today's rally failed at the 50-dma but the very short-term trend is up. We may choose to close this play unopened if LPNT doesn't cooperate soon.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 686 thousand

---

Royal Caribbean - RCL - cls: 45.36 chg: -0.82 stop: 48.01

Today's action in RCL might suggest that its oversold bounce is now over. We would consider new bearish positions here but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new low under $45.00 first. Our target is the $41.25-41.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $45.50
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

---

Triad Hosp. - TRI - close: 47.45 chg: +0.06 stop: 50.51

TRI paused in its recent descent and it may be time to look for an oversold bounce back toward its simple 10-dma near $49 but that doesn't change our bearish outlook. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $49.20
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand

---

Xilinx - XLNX - close: 27.37 chg: -0.12 stop: 29.01

XLNX continues to sink lower and is currently testing its simple 50-dma. Our target is the $26.10-26.00 range.

Picked on August 04 at $27.91
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million

---

Yellow Roadway - YELL - close: 52.16 chg: -0.19 stop: 55.01

We are surprised to see the Dow Transports closing in the green today with crude oil hitting another record high. It is noteworthy that the bounce in YELL appears to be failing. Readers may want to initiate new short positions once YELL trades back under the $52.00 mark.

Picked on August 08 at $51.77
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 25.91 change: -0.66 stop: 30.01

We are closing this play unopened. We have been trying to play it somewhat safe by carefully choosing a bearish entry point in ADBE but it looks like we missed it. Readers may want to keep an eye on it and consider a failed rally under its simple 10-dma as a potential entry point to be evaluated. Today's low under the $26 level looks like bad news as it breaks the trend line of support connecting ADBE's lower lows over the past eight months.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.8 million
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jeff Bailey and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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