Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 12/19/2005

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Bulls Bail, Dow Defiant

December op-ex week tormented traders with an extended sideways range that broke definitively today. What started in the morning as a very light volume range kicked off into a decline to multiday lows in the case of the Dow and multiweek lows in the case of the Nasdaq.

The drop started just after the 1PM Treasury auction results were released, though those results weren't notably disappointing (see below). Volume picked up on the decline as intraday support failed. Combined exchange volume broke 3.3 billion shares, and breadth was strongly negative by the close, 2.27 declining shares for each advancing on the NYSE and 4.12 declining shares for each advancing on the Nasdaq.

Daily Dow Chart

The Dow, buoyed by MRK and PFE, closed with a minor 39.06 point loss at 10836.53. The lower low and lower high, and upper doji shadow are all bearish. The new low bodes ill for the tentative stall in the daily cycle indicators, but price came to rest on rising trendline support. Below the 10825 low, next support is clustered at 10725-750.

Daily S&P 500 Chart

Unlike the Dow, the SPX broke rising trendline support off the October low on the move below 1267, reaching a low of 1259.28 before closing -7.4 at 1259.92. Parallel trendline support is at 1255, below which the 1244-46 confluence comes into view. 1267-70 is new resistance- the high of the day was 1270.51.

Daily Nasdaq Chart

The Nasdaq got croaked for a 29.74 loss to close at 2222.74. The morning high was 2256.03, the low 2221.79 and right on 2220 support. This level would coincide with 1246 on the SPX chart. The Nasdaq has clearly been the weakest link here, with the range since mid-November looking like a flat head and shoulders top, no upward drift equivalent to that on the SPX and Dow. Below 2220, next support is at 2200. 2230-35 is now resistance.

Daily TNX Chart

The Treasury announced that tomorrow's 4-week bill auction to refund $24 billion in maturing debt will be for $11 billion, resulting in a net paydown of $13 billion. This reduction in debt will free up liquidity to the markets, and both equities and Treasuries bounced slightly following the 11AM announcement, though the strength was short-lived. This followed action from the Fed's open market desk at 10AM, adding an overnight repo of $7.5 billion with no expiries, for a net add for the day in that amount. Despite this substantial amount of new liquidity being added to the markets, price action remained listless and weak both for equities and treasuries.

Partially offsetting these positive liquidity developments were the 13- and 26-week bill auctions announced last week and conducted today. The Treasury auctioned $34 billion of these bulls to refund $30.67 billion maturing, raising new cash of $3.3 billion. Foreign central banks purchased $11.3 billion of the total. The 13 week bills sold for a high rate of 3.895% and median rate of 3.87% yielding 3.98%, with 2.19 bids tendered for each accepted. The 26 week bills sold for a high rate of 4.22%, a new high for the year, and median rate of 4.195% yielding 4.372%, the bid-to-cover ratio 2.17.

Ten year note yields (TNX) fell 1.3 bps to close at 4.442%, right on support from the August highs and above confluence support since mid-October. The TNX flattened against 13-week rates (IRX), closing just over 8 bps above the 3.86% IRX. The yield on today's 26 week bills was just 4.372%. Greenspan has said that a flat or inverted yield curve doesn't necessarily indicate economic weakness, which is a fair statement. It may indicate many things. The one thing it certainly indicates is that the cost of short term money is rising and, in some cases exceeding the cost of longer term money. Is it because demand for money "now!" is growing in the same way as "backwardated" options will see the front-month contract price exceed the back-month contracts? Or is it because mortgage and other long term demand has peaked? It's debatable and fascinating question.

Daily Chart of Crude oil

The Minerals Management Service updated its production shut-in statistics today. The MMS calculates that 27.63% of daily oil production is shut in, while 20.14% of daily natural gas production remains shut in. The MMS noted that improvements have been slow, and estimates that this recovery will "continue with incremental movement over the next several months."

Crude oil opened at the bottom of Friday's range and bled its way lower. The 57.80 low coincided with the upper descending trendline on the broken bearish channel, and the bounce left a doji shadow to confirm the support. However, the daily cycle indicators are early in a new and so-far powerful downphase, and that low will be important support. Below that comes the November low in the 56.70 area. Bulls need a break back above 59.50, followed by a gap fill to 61 to whipsaw the daily cycle indicators back up. For the day, crude oil finished lower by 1.05 at 58, it's lowest close since November 30th.


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In corporate news, FPL Group (FPL) announced its $11 billion acquisition of Constellation Energy (CEG). The Wall Street Journal cited "a person with knowledge of the matter" in reporting that the deal would be for stock only, valuing each CEG share between $61-$62. The combined power companies will provide operations along the entire East Coast, generating more than 30,000 megawatts of power. Reuters reported that it's also the first merger in the wake of the new energy bill, repealing the Public Utilities Holding Companies Act that limited such mergers. Moody's subsequently affirmed the debt ratings of the two companies while revising its outlook on CEG from "stable" to "positive" and on FPL from "stable" to "negative." The changes came what Moody's perceived to b a lower business risk profile to CEG, and a higher risk to FPL based on CEG's unregulated generation and risk management businesses, larger operations and higher percentage of cashflow generated from unregulated businesses.

CEG closed lower by 4.22% at 59.01, while FPL lost .37% to close at 42.79 after trading a high of 44.00 in the morning.

Pepsi Bottling (PBG) warned that 2006 EPS will fall from this year's projected $1.83-$1.87 range to $1.76-$1.84, due to a $.18 per share charge from the expensing of its employee stock options. On a pro forma basis, 2006 EPS is expected to be $1.94-$2.02 compared with consensus estimates of $2 per share. PBG closed higher by .04 at 29.50.

Shopping this past weekend was "healthy" but not spectacular, according to market researchers at NPD Group, who reported that merchants are hoping for a surge in last-minute shopping. Because Christmas Eve will be on a Saturday this year for the first time in 11 years and Chanukah will be later, Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers expects last minute shopping to surge this year. NPD Group reported that discount and electronic retailers have been the strongest this season, while mall-based apparels have been mixed. WalMart reported that December sales should come in higher by 2%-4%, but food has been outselling general merchandise. Because margins are thinner on food, that trend could have a deleterious impact on profits. WMT lost .33 to close at 48.94.

Circuit City, one of those electronic retailers, reported that Q3 earnings from continuing operations rose from a Q3 2004 loss of $5.9 million or -$.03 to a gain of $10.1 million or 6 cents per share in the current quarter. Sales roles from $2.53 billion to $2.91 billion in the period, and same-store sales rose 13.1%. These results beat estimates by 2 pennies. The 2006 full-year sales growth projection was raised from 5%-8% to 10%. The company also announced that Chairman and CEO Allan McCollough will retire as CEO on February 28th, 2006, and as Chairman in June. Philip Shoonover was nominated to the board and will be come CEO on McCollough's exit.

Clorox (CLX) guided higher this morning, saying that Q2 earnings from continuing operations should rise from 41-47 cents to 44-49 cents per share. Consensus estimates were 45 cents prior to the update. Q3 earnings are expected at 66-73 cents and Q4 at $1.04-$1.14, compared with consensus estimates of 74 cents for Q3 and $1.06 for Q4. The full-year estimate for 2006 remained at $2.91-$3.06 per share, compared with a consensus of $2.95. CC gained 6.4% to close at 22.62.

In other news, the National Association of Home Builders reported that its sentiment index declined from 61 in November to 57 in this month, the lowest level since April 2003. This is a diffusion index, with readings above 50 indicating expansion. The NAHB cited rising interest rates and higher energy costs for the decline. The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) lost 1.65% to close at 520.68, off a low of 519.86.

There were no major economic reports released today, but it's scheduled to be a moderately busy week. Tomorrow we'll get Housing Starts and Building Permits, along with the PPI, all before the opening bell. On Wednesday, in addition to the weekly Mortgage Bankers and EIA Petroleum Report, we'll get the GDP and Chain Deflator final numbers for Q3. On Thursday, it's the weekly Initial Claims and Natural Gas inventory reports, along with Personal Income and Personal Spending, and Leading Economic Indicators. On Friday, we'll get Durable Orders, Michigan Sentiment and New Home Sales.

For tomorrow, the big issue will be whether we've seen a genuine change of trend on the indices, or whether it's a buying opportunity. On the SPX and Nasdaq, rising support finally failed, and did so on a sharp decline. On the Dow, that technical damage is absent. The sharp decline left the intraday cycles oversold and in some timeframes, trending. A bounce is due on those cycles for tomorrow. If it is weak, or absent, or fails within today's range (ie at a lower high), then the weakness reflected on the daily charts will be confirmed. A break of today's high would be the first big step toward repairing the damage on the Nasdaq and SPX, confirmed by a return back above the broken trendline. Join us in the Market and Futures Monitors tomorrow, where we'll be following and reporting on the action throughout the day.

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None None

New Long Plays

None today.

New Short Plays

None today.

Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

Long Play Updates

ANSYS Inc. - ANSS - close: 41.81 change: -0.52 stop: 40.89

We do not see any change from our weekend update on ANSS and we remain on the sidelines. Our strategy is based on catching a breakout over resistance at $44.00 with a trigger to go long the stock at $44.05. If triggered we'll target a move into the $49-50 range by the end of January.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 153 thousand


Anglogold - AU - close: 46.62 change: -0.81 stop: 43.95

Uh-oh! The action in AU today looks pretty bearish. The stock gapped higher and then immediately turned south with shares closing near short-term technical support at the 10-dma. The action looks like a bearish, failed rally pattern and suggests more weakness to come. We are not suggesting new long positions. If AU trades under $45.45 then more conservative traders may want to exit early! Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on December 06 at $44.81
Change since picked: + 1.81
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 904 thousand


CenturyTel Inc. - CTL - close: 33.56 change: -0.20 stop: 32.39

CTL pulled back again and tested support near $33.50 and its simple 200-dma (again). A bounce from here could be used as a new bullish entry point. You, the reader, can decide to buy a bounce from $33.50 or look for a new move over $34.00 and initiate longs there. Our target is the $36.00 level. The P&F chart for CTL points to a $49 target.

Picked on December 12 at $33.55
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 855 thousand


D.R.Horton - DHI - close: 36.57 chg: -1.24 stop: 34.75

Housing stocks were hit pretty hard with profit taking today. The DJUSHB home construction index lost 2.17% and shares of DHI lost 3.2%. Watch for a bounce from the $36 level, which could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target for DHI is the $39.75-40.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $35.85
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 11/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million


Duke Energy - DUK - close: 27.04 change: -0.24 stop: 25.99

We mentioned over the weekend that DUK was likely to pull back and that's what the stock did on Monday. The consolidation may not be over so we're not suggesting new long positions here. Our end of January target is the $27.95-28.00 range.

Picked on December 13 at $26.89
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million


Forest Oil - FST - close: 45.60 change: -0.72 stop: 44.89 *new*

FST could not escape the sell-off in oil stocks today. The stock lost 1.55% and shares look headed toward the $45.00 level and its 50-dma. Today's decline did produce a new sell signal on its MACD indictor (daily chart). We would not suggest new positions here. Watch for a bounce from $45.00. We are raising our stop loss to $44.89.

Picked on December 02 at $47.01
Change since picked: - 1.41
Earnings Date 02/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


K-Swiss - KSWS - close: 32.71 chg: -1.12 stop: 32.45 *new*

KSWS is another casualty to the market-wide sell-off. The stock was weak almost the entire session and the selling paused at the bottom of its rising channel. The bad news is that today's action has painted a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally interpreted as a bearish reversal. We are tightening our stop loss to $32.45. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on November 29 at $32.09
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 256 thousand


Levitt - LEV - close: 22.50 chg: -0.38 stop: 20.95

LEV continued to consolidate on Monday and looks poised to test the $22.00 level as support. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops.

Picked on December 01 at $22.27
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 thousand


Nautilus - NLS - close: 19.27 change: -0.66 stop: 17.89

NLS was a target for profit taking as well and lost 3.3%. We expect the consolidation to continue. Watch for NLS to dip toward the $19.00-18.75 region. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on December 11 at $18.81
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 598 thousand


VCA Antech - WOOF - close: 27.44 chg: -0.30 stop: 26.74

We see no change from our weekend update. We are not suggesting new long positions here. We will plan to exit ahead of the late January earnings report. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range.

Picked on November 09 at $26.74
Change since picked: + 0.70
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

Short Play Updates

Danaher - DHR - close: 55.72 change: -0.07 stop: 57.35

DHR did produce an oversold bounce today but it failed, multiple times, under the $56.20 level. We are suggesting shorts here with DHR under $56 but if you think the oversold bounce isn't over yet then wait for a rebound toward $56.50-56.75 and look for a failed rally there. Traders should weigh their need to be in the market (and short) against the possibility of a Santa Claus rally showing up. Our target for DHR is the $51.25-51.00 range.

Picked on December 18 at $55.79
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


New River Pharma. - NRPH - close: 49.42 chg: +0.21 stop: 50.01

We do not see any change from our weekend update. Currently we remain on the sidelines as a spectator. Our trigger to short the stock is at $45.45. If triggered we'll target a drop to the $40.00 level. Currently the P&F chart points to a $39 target, which more closely coincides with the H&S pattern target.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 86 thousand


NeuroMetrix - NURO - close: 31.80 chg: +0.12 stop: 34.01

NURO's relative strength today is not a good sign. The overall pattern remains bearish and we don't see any change from our weekend update. NURO may have to retest broken support at the 50-dma as new resistance before it turns lower. Furthermore we now have to deal with the quarter-end phenomenon of window dressing and NURO is probably a good target given its YTD performance. We are not suggesting new shorts at the moment.

Picked on December 06 at $29.59
Change since picked: + 2.21
Earnings Date 01/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 210 thousand


Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 37.87 chg: -0.73 stop: 40.01

Our new short in WAT is off to a decent start with today's 1.89% decline and close under the $38 level. We see no change from our weekend update. The P&F chart for WAT points to a $25.00 target. We think the stock could sink to the $35.00 level by its earnings report in January. We'll use a $35.25-35.00 target range.

Picked on December 18 at $38.60
Change since picked: - 0.73
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 901 thousand

Closed Long Plays

Burlington Coat - BCF - close: 39.88 chg: -0.62 stop: 39.90

The market weakness was too much for BCF and the stock broke down under round-number support at the $40.00 mark. The stock hit our stop loss at $39.90.

Picked on October 24 at $38.90
Change since picked: + 0.98
Earnings Date 01/04/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 165 thousand


Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 20.05 chg: -0.94 stop: 20.45

Wow! GLW displayed plenty of relative weakness today. The stock was immediately weak after the opening bell and dropped to $20.30 very quickly. After a brief pause the selling continued and shares dipped to $19.90 by the closing bell. We have been stopped out at $20.45.

Picked on November 13 at $20.11
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 01/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.8 million

Closed Short Plays


Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jonathan Levinson and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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