Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 01/25/2006

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Animated Markets

Anyone tuning into market discussions this morning heard hopes for a third day of gains. Disney's (DIS) acquisition of Pixar (PIXR) animated those early discussions. In addition, SAP's encouraging outlook and upbeat earnings reports from other companies had boosted futures.

Companies deemed to have beat estimates early this morning included Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Rockwell International (ROK), Amerada Hess (AHC), General Dynamics (GD) and Colgate Palmolive (CL). Crude dipped ahead of an anticipated build in crude inventories. All the evidence, some concluded, pointed to a lively gain for the day. The real animation came on the downside moves, however. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all lost ground.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index and Russell 2000 certainly appeared animated in early trading. The Russell 2000 rushed up to a new high, challenging the top trendline of a rising wedge in which it has traded since late 2003. It could not maintain a breakout above the rising trendline of that wedge.

Annotated Daily Chart of the RUT:

Unlike many other indices, the Russell 2000 has mostly maintained the support of its 10-sma on daily closes over the last week. It did pierce that average, dropping down to test the neckline of a confirmed inverse head-and-shoulder before bouncing, continuing that bounce into today's new high. That test and subsequent bounce appears to confirm the support of that neckline, but these continuation-form inverse H&S's aren't as trustworthy as bottoming ones, and particularly not when they form within a rising wedge. This the third such formation the RUT has produced within that rising wedge. None has so far met its upside target before the RUT dropped back to the bottom trendline of the rising wedge, although the first one did come closer than the second to meeting its upside target.

Today's action left the RUT with a near doji at the top of a climb as the index challenges important resistance. The RUT is clearly at a key point as it challenges that upside wedge resistance again. Traders should pay close attention to the RUT, watching for a breakout and also being prepared for a potential move down through that rising wedge again. This is especially true since another market leader, the TRAN, also currently challenges important resistance.

Annotated Weekly Chart of the TRAN:

The TRAN punched higher in early trading today, achieving a high of 4298.16, challenging the December 27 high of 4306.09. The TRAN could not hold that high, however. It closed at 4240.80, well off the day's high, but also well off the 4223.18 low.

The SPX also challenges resistance, but in this case, it's resistance that many thought would be support instead.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:

Rollovers from the 30-sma have provided good scalping opportunities the last several days as the SPX consolidates in what may be a "b" distribution pattern. Markets can and have broken to the upside out of such patterns, but for now, the pattern appears to suggest that the SPX has more downside to go.

The Dow shows a similar possible "b" distribution pattern.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

In some respects, the Nasdaq shows more strength than the other indices.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:

The SOX, too, shows a different pattern than some of the other indices. The SOX has been coiling throughout most of January, although few knew that the early January climb was only the first part of a coiling action.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:

That well-defined neutral triangle allows traders to observe the direction of the breakout. So far, the usual momentum leaders--the SOX, Russell 2000 and TRAN, are being tentatively held back, but none has given up the quest for higher recent highs yet, either. They're not yet leading to the downside, and that tempers the bearishness seen on some other charts.

The day did see some relief from the dour earnings reports seen recently, but not enough relief to overcome negative economic news. If the Disney/Pixar deal animated television commentators' voices, so did the astonishment that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) did not do whatever it took to make the Guidant (GDT) deal happen. GDT decided to accept Boston Scientific's (BSX) $80 a share bid and will pay JNJ more than $705 million for terminating its agreement with the company. JNJ dropped 1.44 percent but acquiring company BSX dropped more, 1.91 percent. GDT dropped by an even greater percentage, 2.07 percent.

Ahead of its earnings report tomorrow, Microsoft (MSFT) benefited from rival SAP's earnings report in early trading, although MSFT held onto only a 0.41 percent gain. SAP, a European software company, beat expectations for license revenue, saying that it saw growth in the U.S. MSFT also announced that it would license its Windows source code in compliance with a European antitrust decision, and perhaps there was some relief in that announcement. Oracle (ORCL) and Business Objects (BOBJ) also benefited, with ORCL climbing 2.45 percent and BOBJ, 1.91 percent.

News on the home-sale front was mixed. Last night, Centex (CTX) had reported earnings that were better than expected. This morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association released mortgage applications for the week ending January 13 at 7:00 EST. The headline number, the Market Composite Index increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared to the week-earlier figure, and 31.4 percent on an unadjusted basis, but was 10.9 percent lower than the year-ago level. Other components showed mixed results. The Purchase Index fell 3.00 percent, the Refinance Index rose 9.9 percent, the Conventional Index rose 1.2 percent and the Government Index climbed 18.9 percent. The Refinance Index fell 19.7 percent when compared to the year-ago level, however.

With the improvements seen in recent weeks after a five-week decline, the four-week moving averages have risen 0.8 percent for the seasonally adjusted Market Index, down 0.05 percent for the Purchase Index, and up 4.1 percent for the Refinance Index. Refinance activity has increased as a share of total applications, to 42.2 percent. The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage eased to 6.07 percent from the previous week's 6.08 percent, and points remained the same as the previous week's number.

Although home prices rose 10.5 percent year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors, other figures did not prove encouraging. The NAR reported another record year of sales, the fifth year in a row of record sales. However, the trend has been down the last three months, with the chief economist for NAR reporting that speculators are pulling out of the housing market. December's existing home sales fell 5.7 percent, to a 6.6 million rate. With expectations of a more modest decline to 6.89 million, the number disappointed. Inventory stands at a 5.1-month supply.

The news hit homebuilders hard, with at least two more due to report tomorrow. One source tagged the homebuilders as leading to the downside in today's decline. The DJUSHB, the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, dropped 2.37 percent.

Many indices had just hit the tops of their flag-shaped climbs off Monday's lows when the housing news hit, and they dived to the bottom of those flags ahead of crude inventories numbers. Ultimately, after another tepid bounce attempt from the flags' support, markets were to hit lower lows in the afternoon.

Although many market watchers had expected a build of 1.4-1.5 million barrels in crude stocks, crude inventories dropped 2.3 million barrels last week. According to the EIA, those inventories still remain higher than the upper end of the average range for this time of year, however, and distillate and gasoline inventories rose, more than compensating for the drop in crude inventories. Distillate inventories rose 1.8 million barrels, and gasoline inventories rose 3.2 million barrels. Distillates also remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and gasoline inventories rose into the upper half of the average range.

Crude prices had already dropped before the inventories number, dropping below their 100/130-ema's. After a brief pop higher due to the unexpected drop in crude inventories, crude dove to a new low for the day of 65.45, dropping into level not seen since the breakout on January 17. Crude bounced off that low, however. With inventories above the average range for this time of year in crude, gasoline and distillates, and with warmer-than-usual weather in many parts of the country, traders who sent crude down into the low of the day had discounted concerns about Iran and Nigeria. As this report is prepared, crude futures were again at $65.46.

Equity prices at first bounced as crude dropped, trying to reestablish the old crude down/equity up paradigm, but that paradigm no longer consistently works. Heavy drops in energy companies such as COP and XOM dragged equity indices down, too. ConocoPhillips (COP) had today joined Amerada Hess (AMH) in reporting earnings that some deemed stellar, but COP dropped as crude did, bouncing as it did in the afternoon. Despite what some called stellar earnings, expectations were that COP would earn $2.62 a share on revenue of $49.8 billion, and the company reported $2.61 but with revenue at $52.2 billion. AMH reported Q4 earnings of $4.31 a share on revenue of $7.15 billion, above expectations for $3.26 a share. COP was to close 1.45 percent lower, while AMH held onto a 1.18 percent gain. Refiners and oil-and-gas-equipment companies also had a tough day.


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Materials performed well. Morgan Stanley upped its price targets for copper, zinc, gold and aluminum. Both the BIX and the BKX, the S&P Banks Index and the Kbw Bank Index, gained. Other sectors posting gains included the DRG, the Pharmaceutical Index; the SOX; the XTC, the North American Telecoms Index; the NWX, the Networking Index, and the HMO, the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index.

Underpinning specific developments in the U.S. was the meeting among the globe's economists. Economists meeting at Davos issued reassuring statements about global developments in 2006. Admitting that 2007 could see economic growth slow to 3.5 percent and acknowledging the risks in the U.S. economy, the forecasters at the Centre for Economics and Business Research think 2006 will see steady growth. The risks include a new FOMC chairman, a growing U.S. budget deficit, higher energy costs, a softening U.S. housing market, and tightening interest rates. Growth for this year is expected to ease, the forecasters say, but the real danger occurs if France, Germany and China slow down as they project in 2007.

After the close, QCOM reported Q1 profit that climbed 21 percent. Low-cost cell phones sold well in developing countries and high-end handsets sold well in wealthier countries. Excluding one-time items and investment results, the company reported earnings of $667 million or $0.39 a share, against expectations of $0.38. The company's forecast included an expectation that normal seasonal patterns would assert themselves and result in a softening in the first three months of 2006. It forecast $0.35-0.37 on revenue of $1.63-1.73 billion. Expectations had been for profit of $0.36 on sales of $1.73 billion. The outlook for the year remained the same. As this report was prepared, QCOM last traded at $46.84, down from its $47.58 close.

Juniper Networks announced a fourth-quarter profit of $105.5 million or $0.17 a share on revenue of $575.5 million. Excluding charges, the company met expectations for $0.10 a share, but revenue expectations had been for $579 million. As this report was prepared, JNPR last traded at $20.32, down from its $21.52 close.

InfoSpace (INSP) last traded at $23.69 after closing at $24.34. The company reported fourth-quarter net profit of $37.9 million or $1.13 a share on revenue of $86.5 million. If a tax benefit was excluded, the earnings were $0.39 a share against expectations of $0.27 and revenue of $85.4 million.

Other reporting companies included Novellus (NVLS), Altera (ALTR), and LSI Logic (LSI). NVLS last traded at 29.60 after closing at $27.92, ALTR last traded at $19.50 after closing at $18.92, and LSI last traded at $9.39 after closing at $9.04.

The reaction to earnings during after hours has been mixed. There's not a clear downward or upward bias to be gleaned from that information.

In other news, Teva Pharmaceuticals announced a plan to offer $2.75 billion of debt securities. The company will use the funds to refinance debt that it incurred when acquiring Ivax Corporation. In addition, a bulletin announced that the injunction hearing on RIM's Blackberry had been set for February 24.

Tomorrow, initial claims and natural gas inventories will be released as usual, at 8:30 and 10:30, respectively. December's Durable Orders and Help-Wanted Index will also be released tomorrow, at 8:30 and 10:00, respectively. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce releases the Durable Goods Orders, and they often do catch the market's attention since they serve as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. Lately, Boeing's (BA) big orders have sometimes skewed the number, so it's important to look beyond the headline number as big-money market participants will be doing. The market wants gains, if any, to occur across all sectors. This time, the forecast is for a gain of 1-2 percent, down from the prior 4.4 percent.

Earnings will be flooding the market, too, with reporting companies as diverse as Alaska Airlines (ALK) and Frontier Airlines (FRNT), Alberto-Culver Co. (ACV), a number of mortgage-related and other financials, Amgen (AMGN), AT&T (T), Broadcom (BRCM), Cardinal Health (CAH), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Foundry Networks (FDRY), Halliburton Company (HAL), Honeywell (HON), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Microsoft (MSFT), Newell Rubbermaid (NWL), a number of energy-related companies, Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Sony Corporation (SNE), Stryker (SYK), Dow Chemical Company (DOW) and Verizon (VZ). This list is by no means exhaustive, so be sure to check reporting days for the stocks that interest you or are in the same sector as the ones that interest you.

However, this list does show that, just as the Durable Goods number should give some indication of how various manufacturing sectors perform, the reporting companies include sectors diverse enough to provide an idea of how the economy performs. Energy, tech, pharmaceutical and chemical, consumer goods, medical devices and other sectors are included in that list.

The charts of the SPX and Dow appear bearish, complete with potential "b" distribution patterns. If those charts were the only ones reviewed tonight, I would have a clear statement to give: sell rallies up toward the averages that have been providing resistance this week. Protect profit at the bottom of the consolidation zones from this week. Watch for a potential breakdown.

However, it's not that easy, because the usual market leaders are trying to lead to the upside, and haven't given up the fight yet. The TRAN's resistance should hold and the RUT's might, but the SOX's consolidation looks neutral. Any or all of these could lead markets either direction. Keep these three on the radar screen no matter what you're trading. You want to know the direction they're headed. Believe only half of what you see and maybe trade with only half a usual position until there's a clear direction and you know that you haven't just been caught in a trap on that trade setup that had looked so beautiful. Positioning ahead of next week's FOMC meeting is going to take precedence over technical developments on the chart soon, maybe as soon as tomorrow.

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays

New Long Plays

Helen of Troy - HELE - close: 19.04 chg: +0.63 stop: 17.49

Company Description:
Helen of Troy Limited is a leading designer, producer and global marketer of brand-name personal care and household consumer products. The Company's personal care products include hair dryers, curling irons, hair setters, women's shavers, brushes, combs, hair accessories, home hair clippers, mirrors, foot baths, body massagers, paraffin baths, liquid hair styling products, body powder and skin care products. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We were very surprised to see shares of HELE in rally mode earlier this morning after missing earnings and guiding lower. The stock bounced from the $16.00 region and has refused to give back any of its gains. Now the stock is breaking out higher again with today's move over technical resistance at its 100-dma. Today's move also helps confirm a bullish breakout over its long-term trendline of resistance. We do expect some trouble with the top of the October gap down but it seems like HELE is reversing course and moving higher after a three-month base-building consolidation. We are going to target the $22.00-22.50 range with a ten-week time frame.

Picked on January 25 at $19.04
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/09/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 285 thousand


Mens Wearhouse - MW - close: 32.62 change: +0.56 stop: 30.45

Company Description:
Founded in 1973, Men's Wearhouse is one of North America's largest specialty retailers of men's apparel with 720 stores. The stores carry a full selection of designer, brand name and private label suits, sport coats, furnishings and accessories, including tuxedo rentals available in the Men's Wearhouse and Moores stores. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
So far 2006 has been a good year for MW. The stock soared back in early January after reporting same-store sales of 8.1%, which was a lot better than Wall Street's estimates. The early rally petered out and shares faded back to test support near broken resistance and its 200-dma. Traders appear to be buying the dip and today's gain is a breakout over its short-term trend of lower highs. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $49 target. We think shares could rally toward their July 2005 highs near $37.00 before the company reports earnings in February. Our target is the $36.00-37.00 range. We do not want to hold over the earnings report.

Picked on January 25 at $32.62
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 625 thousand


Nordic Am. Tankers - NAT - close: 31.56 chg: -0.14 stop: 29.95

Company Description:
NAT is a Bermuda-based shipping company with eight modern double-hulled suezmax crude oil tankers. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
This is a short-term two-week play. It looks like NAT has produced a bottom over the last few weeks. Yesterday the stock broke out over significant technical resistance at the 50-dma. NAT pulled back a bit on Wednesday but traders bought the dip near the 50-dma and the $31.00 level. Bulls are fighting against a bearish P&F chart but we suspect that NAT will be able to rally up into its February 7th earnings report. More conservative traders may want to reduce their risk by using a trigger to go long over $32.00 and a tight stop loss under $31.00. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range.

Picked on January 25 at $31.56
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 191 thousand


Pan Am. Silver - PAAS - close: 19.97 chg: +1.24 stop: 18.95

Company Description:
Pan American Silver Corp. was founded in 1994 upon a single mission: to be the best vehicle for equity investors wanting real exposure to higher silver prices. Today, the Company produces more than 13 million ounces of silver annually from 6 operations in 3 countries, it has its seventh mine under construction in Mexico, and an additional silver project undergoing a feasibility study in Argentina. Pan American Silver expects to become the largest primary silver producer in the world with annual silver production growing to 23 million ounces in 2008. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
Metals got a boost today after a major analyst firm upgraded their forecast for 2006. The XAU gold & silver index added 1.9% while shares of silver-miner PAAS rallied 6.5% on very strong volume. It looks like the two-month consolidation in PAAS is about over and the stock is on the verge of another leg higher. The P&F chart already points to a $24.50 target and if it trades over $21.00 it will produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal. We are suggesting a trigger to go long at $20.26. More conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $20.50. If triggered we are going to target a rally into the $22.00-22.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

New Short Plays

None today.

Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

Long Play Updates

Bluelinx - BXC - close: 13.50 change: +0.02 stop: 11.90

We see no change from our previous updates on BXC. Our target for BXC is the $15.00-15.50 range by late February through early March. FYI - the P&F chart points to a $25 target.

Picked on January 10 at $12.47
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand


Nexen Inc. - NXY - close: 54.33 change: -1.28 stop: 49.99

Oil stocks pulled back following a decline in crude futures today. The trend in NXY remains bullish but shares could dip to the $52.00 region before bouncing. We don't see any change from our previous updates on NXY. Our target is the $57.50-58.00 range.

Picked on January 11 at $52.11
Change since picked: + 2.22
Earnings Date 02/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 424 thousand


Patterson-UTI - PTEN - close: 36.45 change: -1.30 stop: 33.85

Traders were doing some profit taking in the oil services sector today. The OSX index lost 2.8% while shares of PTEN fell 3.4% and closed under the simple 10-dma. We wouldn't be surprised to see PTEN retest support at the $35.00 level before moving higher. A bounce from $35 would be an attractive entry point for new longs. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range versus the P&F chart's target of $46.50.

Picked on January 17 at $36.85
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

Short Play Updates

Ansoft Corp. - ANST - close: 33.30 chg: -0.04 stop: 34.51

We do not see any change from our previous updates on ANST. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to consider exiting early to protect themselves. Our target is the $27.70-28.00 range near its 200-dma.

Picked on January 19 at $32.71
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 02/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 104 thousand


Health Net - HNT - close: 48.30 chg: -0.60 stop: 51.05

HNT turned lower again today and closed with a 1.2% decline. More importantly it closed back under the simple 100-dma. Our target is the $45.00-44.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February 1st earnings report.

Picked on January 23 at $48.95
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 958 thousand


MedImmune - MEDI - close: 33.29 change: +0.00 stop: 35.01

MEDI closed unchanged on the session but the action today was bearish. The stock produced a new failed rally near the $34.00 level and its trend of lower highs. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range but we'll adjust it as the simple 200-dma moves higher. We do not want to hold any positions over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 18 at $33.45
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million


PETsMART - PETM - close: 24.46 change: +0.06 stop: 25.01

We do not see any change from our previous update on PETM. Watch for a failed rally under $25.00 as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $21.50-21.00 range.

Picked on January 22 at $24.08
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 03/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million


Travelzoo - TZOO - close: 20.24 change: +0.19 stop: 22.05 *new*

TZOO is trying to bounce from round-number support at the $20.00 level. We warned readers to expect a bounce near $20 and frankly we're surprised that today's rebound wasn't higher. We would not suggest new shorts here. Watch for a failed rally under the 10-dma near $21.65. We are lowering our stop loss to $22.05. Our target is the $17.25-16.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 22 at $21.02
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 02/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 309 thousand

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Baidu.com - BIDU - close: 52.50 change: -3.92 stop: 62.05

Target achieved. BIDU continues to sell off and shares lost 6.9% today closing at a new all-time low. Our target was the $52.00-50.00 range and BIDU hit the $52.00 mark this morning. More aggressive players may want to hold on and aim for $50 or lower. Don't forget that nothing moves in a straight line and BIDU is looking pretty oversold and due for a bounce.

Picked on January 23 at $59.75
Change since picked: - 7.25
Earnings Date 03/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Linda Piazza and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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