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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 01/28/2008

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Rebound Takes Hold as Short Covering Builds Momentum

The major averages all finished in the green as market internals and price action suggests that bears continue to lock in gains in a volatile market environment.

After a choppy morning trade that saw the major averages oscillating between fractional gains and losses, buyers won out by the close.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3:1 margin at the big board, while four and five-lettered stocks at the NASDAQ had advancers outnumbering decliners by a 2:1 margin.

Having recorded a hefty 1,099 new lows on Tuesday and 397 on Wednesday, new lows have been trying to stabilize at the big board with 79 on Thursday, 84 on Friday and 81 today. Again, some QUANTITATIVE look that shorts are doing some buying. During the same time (Tuesday - today), the number of new highs aren't much to write home about at 33, 30, 16, 21 and today's 22. These new high measures suggest to this technical analyst that BULL's aren't overly aggressive with individual names and remain more cautious.

NASDAQ new lows are also abating from Tuesday's hefty 982 total, but also show some sign of firming with 467 on Wednesday, 130 on Thursday, 114 on Friday and 119 today.

A bright spot for NASDAQ at the new highs. On Thursday, just 36 stocks managed to trade a new 52-week high. Wednesday's tally came in at 32, Thursday's total was 43, Friday's count was 42 and today's total was 45.

For the first time this year (2008), the 5-day NH/NL ratios at both they NYSE and NASDAQ have reversed up, in large part due to the lack of new lows. A sign to this market technician that short covering from bears is offering support.

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart - 2% box

As you can see, today's 13.6% NH/NL measure for the NYSE's "f"ive day ratio reverses from a very WEAK 6%. To even begin to think that we are starting to observe some BULLISH leadership resuming, the "f"ive-day NH/NL ratio would have to see a 34% measure on the chart. On a more intermediate-term basis, the 10-day NH/NL ratio (X's and O's) remains in a column of "O" and can only do so should the "f"ive-day NH/NL ratio continue higher.

It's just that simple.

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart - 2% box

NASDAQ tends to be a little more "volatile" and we can see that here with the "f"ive-day NH/NL ratio (see more columns of 'f'). Today's 17.8% measure gives us the 3-box reversal up to 16.00% on the chart. Meanwhile, the more intermediate-term 10-day NH/NL ratio (X's and O's) has fallen to 12% with tonight's closing measure of 15.00%. It would take an 18.00% measure for the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back up.

From an internal technical observation, it would take a 42.00% measure for the "f"ive day NH/NL ratio to give us the impression that BULLISH leadership is returning on a shorter-term basis, while it would take a 38.00% measure for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to suggest BULLISH leadership were returning on a more intermediate-term basis.

There has also been some "bull alert" signals among the major market bullish %!

S&P 500 Bullish ($BPSPX) - 2% box scale

On Thursday, I alerted traders and investors that the S&P 500 Bullish ($BPSPX) from StockCharts.com had reversed up to "bull alert" status. "Bull alert" status is depicted by a bullish % reversing UP from below the 30% measure.

Institutional traders and investors that will utilize these important supply/demand measures consider levels below 30% as being "oversold," while levels above 70% are deemed more "overbought."

If this were an American football field, then 30% and lower would signal "touchdown" for the bears. Gains on many bearish positions should be locked in (partial or full) as to not let this market take point, or gains from your account!

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Over the last couple of days, supply/demand traders and investors alike have noted that some of the major market bullish % indicators have reversed UP to bull alert status (bullish % reversed UP at measures below 30%), also a signal that some type of shift is underway and that demand for equities is starting to outstrip supply.

The very broad NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA), the narrower S&P 100 Bullish ($BPOEX) and NASDAQ-100 Bullish ($BPNDX) also reversed up to "bull alert" status.

U.S. Market Watch - 01/28/08 Close

Ahead of this week's 2 day FOMC meeting, the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 276.36 +3.28% continued its torrid rebound from last Tuesday's intra-day and new multi-year low of 228.54. For those without calculators, the BIX.X has rebounded nearly 21% from last Tuesday's low! The BIX.X also close above its 50-day SMA (274) for the first time since falling below this more intermediate-term simple moving average (SMA) on October 12, 2007!

In this evening's wrap, we'll review this important sector as it begins to tie in with some other historic action regarding current FOMC actions and "stimulus" packages currently being reviewed in Congress.

Let's first review some of today's announced economic and earnings announcements.

Economic Data

New Home Sales: The Commerce Department said that new home sales dropped by 26.4% over the past year to 774,000 (consensus 645,000), marking the biggest decline on record (1980 saw sales plunge 23.1%). December's sales fell a rapid 4.7%, while the median price of a home fell by 10.4% last month.

The Commerce Department said that the median price of a new home barely budged in 2007, edging up just 0.2% to $246,900, the poorest showing since prices fell by 2.4% during the 1991 housing downturn. The supply of new homes stood at a 26-year high of 9.6-months.

The Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 372.35 +5.95% recouped all of Friday's losses, but still resides under its 150-day SMA (388). We'd have to go back to last summer to see the DJUSHB close above its more intermediate-term 50-day SMA (310) for more than four (4) sessions.

DJ Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) - Weekly Intervals

"Trader Vick" has been quoted as saying "It's a buy when the 10-week moving average crosses the 30-week moving average and the slope of both averages is up."

Late last year (Q4) I had mentioned that in September of 2006 I was "disappointed" to learn that I wasn't able to fully utilize that year's mortgage interest deductions, and deduction of mortgage origination fees I had paid, and subscribers that might be looking to purchase a new home might want to wait until Jan'08.

As I look at the DJUSHB, we witnessed a STRONG start to 2007, similar to that this year.

Today's hefty 5.95% gain on such "bad news" for December data might make some sense if homebuyers do indeed wait for the New Year in order to make a purchase.

For my 2006 taxes, I ended up using the governments "standard deduction" as the interest and mortgage fees allowed for deduction was LOWER than the standard deduction.

Let's keep an eye on the DJUSHB. I think the MARKET has the seasonal "tax" action figured out. If this is "the bottom," then I'd have to think the DJUSHB doesn't fall back below its 10-week SMA like it DID DO in mid-February of last year!

Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg. Index: More regional economic data had the Chicago Fed saying its manufacturing index edged up 0.1% in December from 104.6 in November.

Chicago Fed / U.S. Industrial Production - Since 1998

I continue to monitor both REGIONAL and the broader economic reports. We can see that the more regional Chicago Midwest Mfg. Index has slipped 0.8% during the last quarter, while the US Industrial Production Index, which is compiled by the Federal Reserve has eased a more modest -0.3%.

It is difficult for this technical analyst to figure out why the CFMMI is so far off its "peak" from '2000, while the broader IPMFG is just off new highs.

While declines are "modest," the trends of both still suggest longer-term growth at hand.

Further weakness in the Chicago Fed data could begin to confirm my (Jeff Bailey's) 2008 forecast for a "modest recession."

Earnings:

The Dow Jones Transportation Index (TRAN) 4,523.33 +1.08% managed to post a gain today despite a negative trade in shares of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ:YRCW) $16.05 -14.89% saying it posted a Q4 loss of $735.8 million, or $-12.99/share. YRCW said it would have earned $0.01/share excluding one-time charges. The $0.01 gain was viewed negative as analysts were looking for a gain of $0.54/share.

The Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH) $165.75 +1.38% mirrored Halliburton's (NYSE:HAL) $33.55 +1.39% daily gain. The oil service giant said Q4 earnings rose 4.9% to $690 million, or $0.75 a share, which was better than Wall Street's consensus of $0.69. Revenues rose 19% to $4.18 billion, also ahead of the $4.06 billion consensus.

Dow component Verizon (NYSE:VZ) $38.11 +0.92% saw a wild day of trade. The communications behemoth said non-GAAP Q4 EPS came in at $0.62, which matched Wall Street's estimates. Including charges (GAAP) it earned $0.37/share on revenues of $23.8 billion. Wall Street was looking for sales of $23.96 billion. After trading as low as $36.25 just after 10:00 AM EST, buyers stepped in to drive the stock to its highs of the day.

After today's close, fellow Dow component American Express (NYSE:AXP) $47.40 +4.31% saw its shares trade lower at $46.03 in the extended session. The financial giant said revenues grew 10% vs. Q4 last year to $7.36 billion, which was below analysts forecast of $7.85 billion. Earnings per share were $0.71, which matched Wall Street's forecast.

AXP's chairman and CEO said "Results for the year met or exceeded all of our long-term financial targets, even though we saw clear signs of a weakening economy and business environment in December.

The Charts

As the $BPSPX reverses up to "bull alert" status last week, I want to begin noting a RANGE of the recent decline.

Let's take a quick look at the S&P Depository Receipts (AMEX:SPY) $135.42 +1.78%.

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) - Daily Intervals

I've been "dragging down" my 0% conventional retracement as the SPY continued to see lower lows. Today's "support" and buyers at the resulting 19.1% suggests to me that a normal 38.2% retracement is in the cards.

In last week's Market Monitor at OptionInvestor.com, I began looking "back" at multiple declines in the major indices. Once we saw a CLOSE above the 19.1% retracement, we've seen "normal" retracement of a decline to 38.2% at a MINIMUM.

On the above chart, I show the Q S2 (Quarterly Support 2) level. The ABILITY for selling to have overcome this institutional computer level of support suggests that institutional computers will likely have some INVENTORY of stock back up at Q S1 (Quarterly Support 1).

It took "guts" to buy BELOW the Q S2, and the only way to profit from such a buy, or RISK taken is to take some profits at Q S1.

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) - Daily Intervals

You know the "news." You also may know that the BIX.X have shown "moments" of strength where it looks like they've found a bottom, only to FAIL and get crushed to new lows.

Long-time OptionInvestor.com subscribers will know that the BANKS are probably the SINGLE BEST depicter of bullishness, or bearishness for the S&P 500 Index.

We're hearing a little more "nip away at some new bullish positions" for this beaten down group. Some positive comments even coming from some "old bears."

A 38.2% retracement would be "normal," but strength above there may signal a turning point for the group. A REAL sign of a turning point would be to see the BIX.X fall as it has, but ONLY back to 257, then chart higher again and take out the 286 level.

This would be the "key sector" in my opinion to monitor after this week's FOMC meeting.
 

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays
None None

Play Editor's Note: Monday did not go as planned. We stuck our neck out over the weekend suggesting Friday's bearish reversal would see some follow through this week. Instead a massive rally in the financials continued to lift the broader market. Just looking at today's action it would appear that the DJIA is headed for 12,500, the S&P 500 toward 1,370 and the NASDAQ Composite to 2,400. These levels are near last week's highs and should all be short-term resistance. Unfortunately, these are not going to be small moves and will be painful for the shorts. If the market breaks out past these levels then the short squeeze will really pick up speed!


New Long Plays

None today.
 

New Short Plays

None today.
 

Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

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Long Play Updates

Cepheid - CPHD - close: 31.34 change: +0.54 stop: 27.45

CPHD is just not cooperating with our attempts to buy a dip. The stock slipped to $30.32 intraday and then bounced. More aggressive traders might want to up their entry point toward $30.25-30.50. We're going to stick it out and wait for a pull back into the $29.50-28.50 for now. More conservative trades may want to tighten their stops toward $28.00. We're leaving our stop loss at $27.45. Just be sure to wait for signs of a bounce before opening positions. We're going to list two targets. Our first target is the $32.00 mark. Our second target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Excel Maritime - EXM - cls: 33.00 change: +1.16 stop: 29.39

You could argue that we're being too picky with our suggested entry points. We missed EXM today by 10 cents. The stock dipped to $30.35 and rallied sharply, up 3.6% today. Our suggested entry was the $30.25-30.00 zone. Missing the low today may mean we missed our chance. We would not chase it here. Our short-term target will be the $34.75-35.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $37-40 region.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Schering-Plough - SGP - cls: 19.64 change: +0.62 stop: 17.39

The move may not look like much on the chart but SGP managed a 3.2% bounce. More conservative traders may want to wait for a little more confirmation and look for a rise over $20.00 before opening bullish positions. We're suggesting long positions here at current levels. Our target is the $22.00-22.50 range.

Picked on January 27 at $19.02
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 47.48 change: +1.34 stop: 48.55

We have been warning readers for days that AVY was poised to bounce. Shares finally did so today with a 2.9% gain. The $48.00 level is short-term resistance. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock has already hit our early target in the $45.15-45.00 zone. Readers should also note that we are adjusting our aggressive target to $44.15-44.00 instead of the $42.50 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal and a $40 target. FYI: The most recent short interest was listed at 3.7% of the 97.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $48.50
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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CBRL Group - CBRL - cls: 30.17 change: +0.91 stop: 30.35

It's not looking good for shorts in CBRL. The stock managed to push its way back above the $30.00 level and is just below resistance in the $30.20-30.25 range. If the major indices see any sort of follow through on today's bounce then odds are good that CBRL will hit our stop loss at $30.35. If CBRL turns south then look for a move under $29.50 or $29.25 as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders could wait for a move under $28.50 first. There is potential support near $26.00 but our target is the 25.25-25.00 range. Warning: the latest data put short interest at 20% of the stock's small 22.2 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 02/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 674 thousand

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Chico's FAS - CHS - close: 9.08 change: +0.68 stop: 9.21

Ouch! CHS felt the short squeeze today. The stock rallied 8.1% and managed to close over what should have been round-number resistance at $9.00. The stock is still trading under last week's highs but it wouldn't take much to push CHS past those highs (9.15) and that is where the short squeeze could rally get painful. We're not suggesting new positions. Readers may want to tighten their stops if they did open positions today. We would wait for a new decline under $8.80 before considering new shorts. Our target was the $7.10-7.00 range. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 7.7% of the stock's 175 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $ 8.40
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 03/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million

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Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 40.08 chg: +1.01 stop: 41.31

The bounce today is a danger sign for the bears. A breakout over the $41.00-42.00 zone would be a bullish buy signal even though FAST may still have resistance at the 100-dma and 200-dma still overhead. At this point wait for a new decline under $39.00 before considering new shorts. Our first target is the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $33.00-32.50 range. FYI: Traders should note that the most recent data lists short interest at 7.2% of FAST's 124 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $39.07
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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Hasbro Inc. - HAS - close: 24.57 change: +0.62 stop: 25.11

HAS produced a 2.5% rebound and looks ready to challenge resistance near $25.00 soon. Wait for the rally to fail before considering new shorts. Our target is $22.10-22.00. FYI: Short interest is at 5.3% of the stock's 131.1 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $23.95
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 43.59 change: +1.06 stop: 45.05

Shares of HOT also look poised to challenge last week's highs. Wait for the bounce to roll over before considering new shorts. This is going to be a very short-term play. HOT is due to report earnings on Thursday morning, January 31st, before the opening bell. We do not want to hold over the event so we will plan to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell unless shares hit our stop or target first. We are aiming for a pull back into the $39.00-38.50 zone at which point it may be time to switch to bullish positions. FYI: Short interest is listed at just 1.9% of the stock's 197.8 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $42.53
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

---

Korn/Ferry Intl. - KFY - close: 15.49 change: +0.36 stop: 16.05

We are suggesting patience here. Look for the rally to run into trouble near $16.00 resistance. A failure there would be the spot to open new bearish positions. Our first target is the $13.25-13.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $12.25-12.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart points to a $6.50 target. FYI: It is important to note that KFY has above average short interest at 11.2% of the stock's 46 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $15.13
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 03/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 701 thousand


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Limited Brands - LTD - close: 17.90 chg: +0.83 stop: 18.05

Warning! The rebound in LTD was very strong today. The stock produced a 4.8% gain. Furthermore LTD closed above last week's highs near $17.80. That is a very bad sign for the bears even through LTD appears to have additional resistance near $18.00 and its 50-dma. If the market sees any sort of follow through tomorrow we would expect to be stopped out at $18.05. Nimble traders could go long at $18.05 and target a run toward $20.00 and its 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target was the $15.25-15.00 zone. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 7.7% of the stock's 302 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $17.07
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 02/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

---

Macy's - M - close: 25.70 chg: +0.75 stop: 26.05

It's the same story, different stock. Shares of M rallied 3% and they're close to testing overhead resistance near $26.00. Wait for some sign of a failure before considering new shorts. Nimble traders might actually want to consider going long M on a breakout over $26.00 with a $29-30 target. We wanted to capture a drop back toward the $22.00 region with the bearish strategy. Aggressive traders could aim for the January lows near $21.00. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3% of the 431 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $24.95
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

---

NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 41.64 chg: +2.18 stop: 43.01

Yup, you guessed it. Same story here. NIHD bounced with the market and short covering pushed the move to a 5.5% gain. Traders may want to lower their stop loss toward last week's high at $42.72 or the 10-dma at $42.40. We're not suggesting new positions at this. Wait for some sort of failed rally to appear. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $35.50-35.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $32.00-30.00 zone. The Point & figure chart suggests a $19 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 4.1% of the 171 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $39.46
Change since picked: + 2.18
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jeff Bailey and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.

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