Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 06/17/2008

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Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Inflation Weighs

Inflation was clearly evident in this morning's Producer Price Index and that report overshadowed positive earnings news from Goldman Sachs. Housing starts fell again, industrial production fell and the chance of a rate hike increased according to some analysts. All these factors weighed on the market ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

Wilshire 5000 Chart - 30 min

The critical report this morning was the Producer Price Index or PPI. The headline number on the PPI rose a whopping +1.4% in June following a +0.2% increase in May. Prices were again influenced heavily by gains in food and energy. The core rate excluding food and energy rose only +0.2%. Price increases were sharp across all stages of processing. Prices for producer finished products are now +7.8% higher than May 2007. Prices for intermediate goods rose +6.2% in May and crude energy products rose +13.1%. The rise in price for heating oil and natural gas was also instrumental in boosting producer prices. Intermediate food prices rose +3.2% with the largest increases in beef and cheese prices. Prices for durable and nondurable goods rose by +4.5% and 3.2% respectively. The tame inflation in the April report was completely erased by the sharp increases in prices for June.

Housing starts declined -3.3% to 0.975 million units in May. Housing permits fell -1.3% for the month. This is the second time in three months that starts have been below 1 million units. Starts are down more than 30% from 2007 and -55% below their 2006 peak. Single-family starts decreased another 1% to 0.674 million units and this was the 13th consecutive monthly decline. Housing completions increased 11.6% in May. Homes that are started today won't be ready until Christmas and that is typically not a buying season. Odds are good most of today's starts are already presold. Builders try to start spec homes later in the year with a plan to get them ready for sale by March. The spring buying season lasts from March to June to allow moves before school starts again. I would expect starts to continue to decline for the next couple months.

Housing Starts

Industrial production for May fell -0.2% after a -0.7% decline in April. Capacity utilization fell to 79.4% and the lowest reading since the period after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The outlook is for more of the same for the rest of the summer. The only material report left on the calendar this week is the Philly Fed Survey on Thursday.

The recent economics have played havoc with expectations for the Fed meeting next Tuesday. The chances for a rate hike have been spiking with the comments from the various Fed speakers. However, the housing numbers today actually reduced the chance of a hike while the inflation in the PPI had the opposite impact. By day's end it appeared the weak economy won with chances for a rate hike falling about 25% for the day to put the possibility for a hike a little less than 50%.

Goldman Sachs reported earnings this morning of $4.58 per share and that beat the street's estimates of $3.42 per share. It was a case of poor earnings across the sector depressing the outlook for the best performer. They were guilty by association. Goldman earned more than $2 billion for the quarter. You would think a beat of that magnitude would produce a spike in the stock price. Goldman stock fell -$2.65 because Goldman shares had risen +$25 over just the last week. Expectations were priced in and traders were taking profits. Goldman was exactly the opposite of Lehman and their $3 billion loss they reported on Monday.


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Goldman also said the credit crunch was not over and the $300 billion in write-downs in the sector was not enough. Goldman said continuing losses and write-downs may force US banks to raise an additional $65 billion of extra capital. This produced selling in all the banks and brokers with the XLF losing another 3% and closing in on the 52-week low once again. Lehman rolled over again with another 7% loss. Traders were hoping the Goldman earnings would energize the financials but the Goldman comments on the sector did just the opposite. Goldman said a broad based rally in financials was unlikely until the earnings outlook is lowered. Morgan Stanley reports earnings on Wednesday.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said changes were coming for the energy sector. The NYMEX and ICE exchanges will have identical position limits within 120 days. ICE currently has no limit. Other foreign exchanges will be forced to comply with the same rules as U.S. traders. The CFTC said it would produce a paper on speculation in the sector by Sept-15th. The CFTC said they were looking into the unregulated swaps among major financials like Goldman Sachs and how those swaps are reported to the market. The chairman of the CME cautioned again against raising margin requirements any more because lower volume in futures produces more volatility not less. He also said it would push traders into unregulated markets and could actually push prices higher rather than lower. The CEO of Nymex agreed with the need to keep margin requirements low saying the data clearly indicates higher prices when margins rise. Senator Joe Lieberman is scheduled to release on Wednesday details on three draft bills designed to curb financial speculation in futures and reduces position limits by institutions.

Crude oil chart - daily

Crude prices fell today to close just under $134 and although the volatility was high it was less than in recent days. Crude options expired at the close today and relatively speaking it was a calm expiration. July crude futures expire on Friday. The Saudi Arabia oil conference will be on Sunday and anything is possible. Saudi was going to announce another production increase of 200,000 bpd after the conference but the news leaked early and hit the markets on Monday. The New York Times speculated today that the government should RAISE taxes on gasoline to force consumers to buy higher mileage cars. In theory it is a good idea but in practice it would be politician suicide to force that on U.S. consumers. Obama said today that the strategic petroleum reserve should not be opened for price concerns but only for major disruptions in supply. However Obama is also pushing for a windfall profits tax on oil companies and does not want to allow offshore drilling. McCain said yesterday he favored lifting the 27-year old ban in offshore drilling. This was a reversal in his position since 2000 and reflects his changing outlook for future oil prices and energy security.

The impact of fuel costs on the economy could be seen in the FedEx earnings tomorrow. FDX and UPS have already warned that fuel prices were rising faster than their fuel surcharges and package volume was slowing. The FedEx earnings guidance could be key in forming an outlook for the economy and even in the Fed's policy response next week. However, after the close today YRC Worldwide (YRCW) raised estimates for Q2 profits to 30-40 cents per share. Analysts were expecting 29 cents. The upgrade came the day before CEO Bill Zollars presentation at the Merrill Lynch transportation conference on Wednesday.

This is option expiration week and so far the markets have been tame. Volume has been minimal with barely 6 billion shares traded each day this week. Decliners are increasing and internals suggest the bullish enthusiasm is declining.

The markets are looking weaker tonight with the Dow giving back -108 points to decline to 12160 at the close. I had hoped minor Monday rally in the financials would continue after the Goldman earnings but those hopes were dashed. The Dow failed at resistance just over 12300 for the 5th time in the last eight days. That suggests we are looking at another test of support at 12100 and the outlook is not good. The fear of the Fed still exists despite a cooling of rate hike concerns. Until financials recover the Dow and S&P will have trouble posting gains. If the Saudi oil conference produces some unexpected news that depresses oil prices that will be a second anchor on the S&P. The S&P failed again at 1360 and could be headed for a retest of support at 1325.

Dow Chart - Daily

S&P-500 Chart - Daily

The Nasdaq looked slightly better with a two-day rise to 2480 but it still gave up -17 points today. You can't blame today's decline on Apple with a +4.59 gain today on top of a monster gain on Monday. A research note from RBC said that Apple is likely to have a breakout quarter and could sell 14 million iPhones in 2008. His price target is $220. America Technology Research raised its price target for RIMM to $205 saying they expected a very strong quarter from RIMM. RIMM gained +$10 over the last 2 days. Offsetting the strength in AAPL and RIMM was weakness in the semiconductor sector. Downgrades in expectations were the reason for the decline. The Nasdaq is well above support at 2400 but continued financial weakness in the Dow and S&P could be a drag on the tech sector.

Nasdaq Chart - Daily

Russell 2000 Chart - Daily

The Russell could be setting up for a head and shoulders failure at 740. The rebound from last week's closing resistance at 730 was lackluster and the small caps are probably going to take their key from the Dow. There are quite a few small banks in the Russell and continued weakness there and in the semis could continue to restrict any rebound.

For the rest of the week there is no compelling reason to be in the market. We are hitting the warning cycle for Q2 and traders will want to be cautious. With the Philly Fed on Thursday and the FOMC next Tuesday along with those earnings warnings we could see a lack of interest in buying. Options expiration could supply some volatility but the low volume so far this week suggests traders are already spending more time planning the family July 4th outing than what stock to buy tomorrow. I would continue to be cautious about any long positions until proven wrong.

Jim Brown

New Plays

Most Recent Plays

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New Plays
Long Plays
Short Plays

New Long Plays

None today.

New Short Plays

PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 48.54 change: -0.26 stop: 49.26

Company Description:
This is an Exchange Traded Fund that mimics the trading in the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX).

Why We Like It:
The bounce in the market has failed. The tech-heavy NASDAQ will probably catch up to the declines in the DJIA and S&P 500. We are suggesting bearish positions with a relatively tight stop. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $48.54
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 133 million

Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.29 change: -0.01 stop: 3.19 *new*

Traders continue to buy the dips in ADPT. They did it again at $3.20 this morning, near ADPT's 200-dma. While the trend is still up we remain very cautious here. In reaction we're upping our stop loss to $3.19. Our first target is $3.50. Our secondary, more aggressive target is $3.70. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand


BJ Services - BJS - close: 32.43 change: +0.38 stop: 30.45

Oil and energy stocks continued to out perform. BJS added more than 1% and is challenging its earlier June highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. This could be a volatile week in the energy stocks as crude oil endures both an options expiration and a futures expiration. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 2.03
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million


BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 27.38 change: +0.15 stop: 22.99

BZP tagged another high today. The stock looks short-term overbought so wait for a dip if you are looking for an entry point. The latest data put short interest at about 10% of the float so BZP could see more of a short squeeze here. We have two targets. They are $27.50 and $29.90. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand


Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 35.73 change: -0.08 stop 33.65

CTSH posted a minor loss on Tuesday. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a dip or a bounce near $35.00 before jumping in. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop closer to $34.00 or $34.50. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 1.36
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million


SLM Corp. - SLM - close: 24.49 change: -0.21 stop: 21.75

The rally in SLM stalled a bit today. We would expect a dip back toward $24.00, which should be new support. Wait for the dip. Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever one SLM hits first. We are adjusting the stop loss to $21.75.

Picked on June 16 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.1 million


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 39.33 change: -0.02 stop: 36.49

Ouch! STLD gapped open higher at $40.17 and then reversed lower. Shares ended the day with a fractional loss. Unfortunately, the action today is negative and looks like a bull trap and failed rally. We were triggered at the open. At this time we would expect a dip back toward the $38.00 region. If you don't want to endure that dip then exit now and wait for the next entry point. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million


Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 58.69 change: -0.62 stop: 57.75

It's not looking good for Wal-Mart. Momentum is fading fast and shares look like they're ready to dip toward $58.00 at a minimum and potentially toward the 50-dma near $57.20. We've been suggesting that readers take profits for days now. WMT has exceeded our first target at $59.00. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 2.64
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 28.39 chg: -0.82 stop: 31.55

Weakness in financials pushed ACAS to a 2.8% loss. The stock produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 2.56
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


Allstate - ALL - close: 49.38 change: -0.47 stop: 51.51

ALL is rolling over inside its short-term bearish channel. This looks like another entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss at $51.51 but more conservative traders might want to put theirs near $51.00 instead. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone. FYI: In the news today ALL announced it was buying Partnership Marketing Group, which is a roadside assistance company and part of General Electric (GE).

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million


Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 32.01 change: -1.12 stop: 34.55

Entry point alert! DRI's oversold bounce is fading. This looks like another entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $34.00 or $33.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million


Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 30.32 change: +0.05 stop: 31.85

This morning's oversold bounce in KFT failed at $30.73. The bearish trend remains intact but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $29.00. FYI: After the bell tonight KFT announced plans to spin-off its Post cereal business. This might be the reason KFT was trading up around $30.50 in after hours.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million


Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 33.04 change: -0.63 stop: 34.87

The bounce in PAYX is also fading. This looks like another entry point but readers might want to tighten their stops toward $34.00. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 31.73 change: -0.61 stop: 33.65*new*

PDCO is breaking down to new relative lows. Shares fell through potential support near $32.00. We are adjusting our stop loss to $33.65. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 1.68
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

Closed Long Plays

McDonald's - MCD - close: 59.21 chg: -0.73 stop: 58.49

Abandon ship! MCD has reversed with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are suggesting readers exit now to limit any losses.

Picked on June 12 at $59.34
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million

Closed Short Plays


Today's Newsletter Notes: Market Wrap by Jim Brown and all other plays and content by the Option Investor staff.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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