Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 10/18/2010

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Fed Plans Continue To Help Stocks

by Todd Shriber

Click here to email Todd Shriber
Stocks started off the day in sluggish fashion, but finished strong as financials showed up to the party and led the gain for the 10 industry groups tracked by the S&P 500, gaining 2.3% on the day. That erased almost all of last week's 2.4% decline for the group and that helped both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to gains of over 0.7% each. The Nasdaq added almost half a percent as tech investors awaited a fairly significant after-the-bell earnings report.

Stats Table

It looks like the market is maintaining the expectation that the Federal Reserve will be adding to its balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries to prop up the economy, particularly after a surprise 0.2% decline in factory output and utilization rates. Industrial production has been seeing some gradual improvement and even after the September decline, U.S. industrial production has moved higher at an annualized clip of 5% over the last six months.

Industrial Production Chart

As for the impact that news of more quatitative easing is having on the U.S. dollar, let's just say things were a little less bad for the dollar against the euro today, but there was hardly a reason to cheer the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index. The greenback was stronger against the euro overnight due to some profit-taking that started last week, but enthusiasm for the dollar waned early in the U.S. trading session.

Perhaps the best near-term outlook for the dollar is not fundamental, but rather technical as analysts are saying the euro faces some stout resistance in the $1.40 area. Oil was higher today and gold took only a small breather, so the dollar is getting little in the way of reprieve. Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve, said today that the U.S. economy is weak enough to command extension of the Fed's easy monetary policy.

While it is worth noting that traders have pared their bearish bets against the dollar on speculation the market has already priced in the impact of QE2, there are still a lot more short bets against the dollar than there are bullish positions out there. The dollar index is down 8% since President Obama took office.

Dollar Index Chart

It was busy day in terms of earnings, both before and after the bell with the pre-market reports presenting investors with a mixed bag. This is a busy week for profit updates from oil services and energy names and the results were not pretty on that front this morning.

McMoRan Exploration (MMR), the independent oil and gas exploration firm, was slammed to the tune of 13.1% today after the company cut its production outlook for the third time this year. The company now expects to produce about 140 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in the fourth quarter and 160 million cubic feet on average for 2010, well below last year's production level of 202 million cubic feet.

While McMoRan was able to cut its year-earlier loss in half to 26 cents a share, revenue plunged 13% to $94.8 million. Analysts were expecting a loss of 25 cents a share on revenue of $98.7 million. McMoRan attributed the slack third-quarter production to maintenance work and downtime that was forced upon the company by the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

Halliburton (HAL), the world's second-largest oil services company, said its third-quarter profit doubled to $544 million, or 60 cents a share, from $262 million, or 29 cents a share, a year earlier. While revenue jumped 30% to $4.67 billion, analysts were forecasting a top-line number of $4.78 billion. The revenue miss sent Halliburton shares down $1.73, or 4.83%, to $34.09 on volume that was more than double the daily average.

Halliburton said increased demand for its services in products in shale gas plays in the Northeast and Southwest helped offset weakness in other regions, inlcuding the Gulf of Mexico. The company is benefitting as energy producers rush to exploit onshore resources in the wake of the Gulf oil spill. Halliburton's global operation declined everywhere but North America during the quarter.

While natural gas prices are plunging, analysts say energy producers are heavily attracted to shale plays and will simply shift their drilling efforts to oilier shale areas if oil prices remain high and gas prices continue to falter, enabling Halliburton to maintain its North American margins and revenue at least through 2011.

Halliburton Chart

Leading the charge in the financial services sector was Citigroup (C), the third-largest U.S. bank by assets. Citi jumped 22 cents, or almost 5.6%, to $4.17 on volume that was almost double the daily average after saying its third-quarter profit rose to $2.15 billion, or 7 cents a share, compared with a loss of $3.24 billion, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts were expecting a profit of 6 cents a share.

Like rival JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said when it reported results last week, Citi was able to deliver the quarterly profit by taking back $1.97 billion it had set aside to cover bad loans. Citi's losses from bad loans plunged 30% in the third quarter to $7.66 billion as defaults on credit cards and real estate loans declined. Citi is benefitting from its global business, which delivered about half the bank's revenue in the quarter, and thus far, Citi has been immune from the foreclosure mess that has hampered rivals such JPMorgan and Bank of America (BAC).

Citi Chart

After the bell, the tech sector was at the forefront of earnings report. Dow component International Business Machines (IBM), the world's biggest computer services provider, said its third-quarter profit rose 12% to $3.59 billion, or $2.82 a share, from $3.21 billion, or $2.40 a share, a year earlier. Sales rose to $24.3 billion. Those numbers beat the average analyst estimate of a profit of $2.75 a share on revenue of $24.1 billion, but investors were not impressed.

Corporate customers did boost spending on IBM hardware and software, but services contracts, the company's most important business line, slumped 7% to $11 billion. The services unit accounts for 60% of IBM annual revenue and 40% of its annual profit, according to Bloomberg News. News of the disappointing services number has IBM shares trading lower by $5 in the after-hours session as of this writing.

IBM Chart

Yes, IBM is an important stock, but it was by no means the marquee tech name to deliver results after the market closed today. That distinction belongs to Apple (AAPL). After touching a new all-time of $319 today, Apple closed at $318. Apple does what it does best when it comes to quarterly earnings updates and that is blow-out estimates.

For its fiscal fourth quarter, Apple posted a profit of $4.31 billion, or $4.65 a share, compared with $2.53 billion, or $2.77 a share, a year earlier. Revenue surged 67% to $20.34 billion. Analysts were expecting a profit of $4.10 a share on sale of $18.9 billion. The now ubiquitous iPhone led the charge for Apple as the company moved 14.1 million units compared to the Street estimate of 11.5 million units.

Consumers also continue to love their Macs. Apple sold 3.89 Mac computers during the quarter, beating the estimate of 3.8 million, but the good news may have ended there. Kind of. Apple sold ''just'' 4.2 million iPads during the quarter, but the Street was looking for a number around 4.8 million units. The problem was not a lack of demand because stores cannot keep the iPad on their shelves. The problem was Apple suppliers ran out of parts and components to build more iPads with.

Obviously, demand for the iPad is robust, but if Apple cannot build the device then they cannot sell it and investors realize that. Apple shares are down almost 6% in the after-hours session. Six percent is a lot in percentage in terms, but when talking about a stock that closed at $318, that works out to a decline of $18.39.

The Apple conference call was pretty entertaining. Founder and CEO Steve Jobs made a rare cameo on the call, delcaring that his company will crush iPad competitors and rival products from the likes of Dell (DELL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) will be ''dead on arrival.'' Remember, Goldman Sachs has a $500 price target on Apple.

Apple Chart

If Monday's after-hours action is any indication, the Nasdaq will open lower on Tuesday. Apple accounts for 20% of the Nasdaq 100 so it may take longer than previously hoped for the Nasdaq Composite to make a run at resistance at 2519. With Monday's close at 2480, it would take a mighty tumble to bring Nasdaq support at 2450 into play over the next couple of days.

Nasdaq Chart

While the S&P 500 did not post an eye-popping gain today, it was able to move away from resistance at 1175, albeit slightly. That is good for three closes in four days above 1175, but with Apple and IBM looking so weak this evening, we could see the S&P 500 back below 1175 tomorrow. More significant support is 1150.

S&P 500 Chart

The Dow may have some problems making a run at resistance at 11,200 tomorrow, assuming that IBM is a real drag on the index. Then again, three Dow components, Bank of America, Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) report before the bell. I would not expect much out of Bank of America, certainly not enough to outweight IBM's decline. Support for the Dow is 10,975.

Dow Chart

With so much being made of the results of the mid-term elections, and Election Day is just two weeks from tomorrow, I thought it would be interesting to research the performance of stocks following the mid-terms. There have been 17 200-day trading periods following mid-term elections since 1942. How many times has the S&P 500 moved higher in those 200 days proceeding the mid-term election? Seventeen. Perhaps its best to be bullish until the market proves otherwise.


New Plays

Breakout Candidate

by Scott Hawes

Click here to email Scott Hawes


NEW BULLISH Plays

TJX Companies - TJX - close 45.20 change +0.17 stop 43.35

Target(s): 46.95, 48.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 48.50, 47.00, 45.40, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see entry point below

Company Description:
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is an off-price apparel and home fashion retailer. The Company operates in five business segments: three in the United States and one in each of Canada and Europe. Each of its segments has its own administrative, buying and merchandising organization and distribution network. Of its United States-based stores, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, referred to as Marmaxx, are managed together and reported as a single segment, and A.J. Wright and HomeGoods each is reported as a separate segment. Outside the United States, its chains in Canada are managed together, and its chains in Europe are managed together. Thus, Canada is reported as a segment and Europe is reported as a segment. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
TJX has been consolidating above its rising 20-day SMA for the past couple of weeks and is forming an ascending triangle along the way. Resistance is $45.40 and I suggest readers use a breakout to enter long positions. Let's use a trigger of $45.52 and target a move back towards the stock's 52-week highs. Our targets are $46.95 and $48.20 and our stop is $43.35. More nimble traders may want to try to time an entry on a pullback in the $44.50 area.

Suggested Position: Long TJX stock if it trades to $45.52

Annotated chart:

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/16/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3 million
Listed on October 18, 2010


In Play Updates and Reviews

Watch For a Correction

by Scott Hawes

Click here to email Scott Hawes

Editor's Note:

Good evening. The reaction to earnings reports from Apple and IBM in the after market has me very cautious with long positions as there is likely to be a broader market correction in the coming days. At the same time, I would use any dips as opportunities to take/protect profits on short positions and consider initiating new long positions. How far a correction goes is the magic question but I would target SPX 1,150 as the first stop. Staying nimble here is key and working both sides of the market could be lucrative.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close 7.81 change +0.13 stop 7.28

Target(s): 8.95, 9.20, 9.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.60, 9.25, 8.75, 8.00, 7.40
Current Gain/Loss: -4.76%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Neutral

Comments:
10/18: I do not see many changes from James' comments below. BYD experienced a relif rally after the Thursday/Friday sell-off. Broken support near $8.00 was a key level that BYD will have to contend with on bounces. Readers may want to consider exiting positions early or tightening stops to the $7.45 area to protect capital, especially considering the overbought broader market conditions.

10/16 (James): Uh-oh! BYD was showing some relative weakness on Friday. We were expecting a pull back but the $8.00 level should have offered stronger support. While I do think BYD has put in a bottom with the September low, I am somewhat concerned that shares are seeing above average volume lately. Normally above average volume on the rally, like we saw in early October, is bullish but we're also seeing strong volume on the pullback, which can be bearish. On a short-term basis I would expect BYD to hit support near $7.50 and its 50-dma. Readers may want to wait for a bounce from the $7.50 level before considering new bullish positions.

10/14 (James): Our wait is over. Shares of BYD saw some profit taking today with a -3.4% decline. Traders bought the dip near support at $8.00 and its rising 10-dma. The low was $7.89, which was pretty close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the three-week rally. Our trigger to buy BYD stock was hit at $8.20. We're using a stop loss at $7.28. More conservative traders may want to consider raising their stop toward the $7.50 level, which is both psychological support and the 50-dma. Our first target is $8.95.

Current Position: Long BYD stock, entry was at $8.20

Entry on October 14, 2010
Earnings 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 37.61 chg: -0.58 stop: see below

Target(s): 39.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 35.00, 36.50, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see entry point below

Comments:
10/18: We are waiting to be triggered at $36.75 which I expect to happen in the coming days. This is a prior long term resistance area which should now be support. The comments from the play release below remain the same.

10/16: Shares of Brazilian grocery food chain CBD appear to be in breakout mode. The Brazilian economy continues to grow and the surging middle class likes to spend. This has pushed CBD toward all-time highs. Now normally I wouldn't list a stock in the $70s as a PremierInvestor play. However, CBD will see a 2-for-1 split on Monday morning (Oct. 18th). The stock should open around $38.20. I am suggesting we look to buy CBD on a pull back. Broken resistance near $73.50 (post-split will be $36.75) should be new support. Thus, use a trigger at $36.75 to open bullish positions. We'll use a stop loss at $34.75 since the $70 level (post-split: $35) should be additional support.

If triggered our first target is $39.00 (pre-split $78.00). Our second, longer-term target is $42.00. The inverse (bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern would suggest a bullish target of $88 (post-split would be $44). The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a price target of $101.00 (post-split $50.50).

Suggested Position: Buy the stock (CBD) at $36.75, stop loss 34.75.

CBD does have options but the symbols will change post-split so look them up on Monday.

Entry on October xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 11/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 545,000
Listed on October 16th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 50.00 change: -0.16 stop: 44.95

Target(s): 50.00, 52.50,
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 47.50, 50.00, etc.
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below for details

Comments:
10/18: We are waiting for our trigger at $48.25. I like the set-up and suggest we remain patient. We could get a pullback in the coming days and using the dips as buying opportunities is the right strategy.

10/16: HANS is probably best known for their Monster brand energy drinks. The stock has been a monster in its own right and shares have been a popular momentum trade over the years. Well once again shares of HANS are surging higher. We'd like to hop on board but we don't want to chase it at these levels. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy the stock (or call options) at $48.25 since broken resistance at $48.00 should be new support. I'm suggesting a stop loss at $44.95 but we may want to raise the stop closer to the rising 50-dma (technical support) currently near 46.20.

If triggered at $48.25 our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $52.50. FYI: The point & figure chart is very bullish and is forecasting a long-term target of $78.

Suggested Position: BUY the stock at $48.25

- or -

BUY the November $50.00 calls (on a dip at $48.25).

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


Itron, Inc - ITRI - close 62.60 change +0.35 stop 57.45 (varies)

Target(s): 63.75, 65.50, 67.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 66.00, 64.00, 60.50, 59.00, 57.00
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
10/18: Let's keep the strategy below as our trigger. My guess is ITRI will print $60.25 in the coming days as the broader market also corrects.

10/16 (James): We are still waiting for an entry point. There are no changes from my Thursday comments, which include an alternative entry point. FYI: ITRI is due to report earnings on October 27th, after the closing bell. Wall Street expects a profit of $0.84 a share.

10/14 (James): So far we're still waiting on an entry point in ITRI. Shares held up pretty well with bulls immediately buying the dip this morning near $61.60. The trend is up but the stock is struggling with resistance near $63.00 and its exponential 200-dma. If you don't mind I would like to adjust our entry point strategy. Let's plan on buying the dip at $60.25, not 61.00 and if triggered at $60.25 we'll move the stop loss to $57.45.

Plus, just in case ITRI does not correct, I'd like to use a trigger to buy a breakout at $63.55. If this trigger is hit we'll move the stop loss to $59.49. The 200-dma near $65 is probably overhead resistance but I would aim for resistance near $67.50.

Suggested Position: Long ITRI stock if it trades down to $60.25
- or - buy a breakout at $63.55 (stop loss 59.45).

Options Traders: Buy November $60.00 or $65.00 calls depending on the entry point.

Entry on October XX
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 412,000
Listed on October 4, 2010


Mylan Inc. - MYL - close: 18.94 change: -0.37 stop: 18.45

Target(s): 20.00, 21.00, 22.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.50, 19.00, 20.00, 20.50
Current Gain/Loss: -1.94%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
10/18: MYL got hit hard today on news that a preliminary injunction against GlaxoSmithKline and Apotex pertaining to the generic drug Paxil CR was denied in US District Court of New Jersey. After the initial reaction the selling subsided and MYL bounced after the company said they are appealing the decision. Regardless of the outcome, this is a new development and readers should use caution, especially considering the overbought broader market conditions. Our stop is in the right place if MYL breaks lower as this will signal a break in trend.

10/16: MYL is a short squeeze candidate. Bigger picture the generic drug makers are facing a potential boom for the next few years as more brand name drugs lose their patent protection. On a short-term basis MYL just broke out over heavy resistance at $19.00 and its 200-dma following news the FDA has approved to generic versions of Merck's Hyzaar and Cozaar blood pressure drugs. Now don't get too excited here since TEVA has already begun selling generic versions of these drugs months ago but it does mean MYL can try and grab its slice of the pie. Technically MYL is seeing a bullish breakout and could see a short squeeze. The most recent data available listed short interest at almost 29% of the 260 million-share float.

I do consider this an aggressive trade so keep your positions somewhat smaller. Buy the stock now (or the calls) and target a move to $20.00, $21 and beyond. FYI: The P&F chart is forecasting at $33 target.

Current Position: Long MYL stock, entry was at $19.25
Options Traders: Long November $20.00 calls

Entry on October 18, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


PerkinElmer, Inc - PKI - close 23.60 change +0.39 stop 22.35

Target(s): 24.25, 24.85, 25.35
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.40, 24.40, 23.30, 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.16%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
10/18: PKI regained all of Friday's losses and closed at new multi-month closing highs that haven't been seen since early May. However, the broader market is overbought so readers should use caution. Tighter stops in the $22.75 area could be considered to limit downside risk. James' comments below remain valid.

10/16 (James): There hasn't been any news on PKI lately and shares aren't moving much as they consolidate sideways. Traders bought the dip again at short-term technical support near the 10-dma and 20-dma on Friday. The trend is up but stochastics are suggesting this rally is losing steam. Yet that doesn't mean PKI can't keep climbing. Cautious traders might want to tight stops closer to the $22.50 level. I am a little concerned that PKI appears to be forming a bear-wedge pattern. Readers may want to keep their position size small. FYI: This company is due to report earnings on Nov. 4th. Analysts are estimating a profit of 29 cents a share.

Current Position: Long PKI stock, entry was at $23.10

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on October 11, 2010


Thompson Creek Metals - TC - close 11.58 change -0.03 stop 10.45

Target(s): 11.75 (hit), 12.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 12.60, 11.80, 11.00, 10.55
Current Gain/Loss: +3.86%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
10/18: TC dritfed sideways in a fairly tight range on Monday. The stock closed near its highs and continues to look bullish, however, be aware of some possible profit taking in the comng days which I would use an opportunity to launch new positions. If TC breaks above last week's highs there is little resistance until the $12.50 area which is just above our final target. Tighter stops could be considered in the $10.80 area to limit downside risk.

10/16 (James): There is no change from my Thursday comments on TC. The stock saw a little volatility on Friday morning but consolidated sideways into the weekend. A pull back toward the $11.15-11.00 zone should be a new bullish entry point.

10/13: TC hit our first target at $11.75.

Current Position: Long TC stock, entry was at 11.15

Options Traders: Long November $11.00 CALL

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 10/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

FLIR Systems - FLIR - close 25.77 change -0.02 stop 27.05

Target(s): 24.25, 23.25, 21.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 28.00, 27.00, 26.50, 25.50, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.15%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/18: FLIR has rallied right into resistance (prior support from February) which also happens to be its 20-day SMA. FLIR also has a downtrend line and its declining 50-day SMA just overhead in the $25.25 area. I like new positions here and suggest playing for a pullback of $1.50 to $2.50.

10/16 (James): On Thursday night I adjusted our entry point to launch bearish positions immediately. FLIR gapped open higher on Friday morning at $25.81 (Thursday's high and our new entry point). The rally failed at $26.00 but FLIR still managed a +0.9% gain, showing some relative strength. I still think this is just an oversold bounce and the overall trend is down. I would still launch positions at current levels. More conservative traders could wait and watch for a failed rally near the 50-dma instead as their entry point. FYI: FLIR is due to report earnings on Oct. 21st, before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a profit of 38 cents a share. We normally don't like to hold over earnings. Readers may want to adjust their stops prior to the report.

Current Position: Short FLIR stock, entry was at $25.81

Entry on October 15, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 2nd, 2010


SanDisk Corp - SNDK - close 38.91 change -0.30 stop 42.20

Target(s): 38.25, 37.55, 35.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.00 to 40.00, 38.00, 36.00
Current Gain/Loss: +4.14%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
10/18: After gapping higher SNDK sold off the entire day. Our gain is currently more than +4% and I expect to see more selling in the coming days. The stock has a lot of overhead resistance and considering the broader market's overbought conditions SNDK could fall fast. However, James' comments regarding M&A activity in the space should not be ignored. As such, I suggest readers use weakness to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. SNDK is down nearly -1.50% in the after hours as of this writing. Therefore, our first target of $38.25 (raised 10 cents) is likely to get hit tomorrow morning. I've also adjusted the 2nd target up to $37.55 and will close positions if this is reached.

10/16 (James): Some of the storage device stocks have been rising on buyout rumors. SNDK hasn't been mentioned lately as a target but the M&A rumors in the sector could lift shares anyway. I don't see any changes from my comments on Thursday. There are a lot of conflicting signals and cross currents with SNDK so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. However, the $40.00 level should be significant resistance and more aggressive traders can look for failed rallies in this area as possible entry points. FYI: SNDK is due to report earnings on Oct. 21st. The street expects a profit of $1.05 a share.

Current Position: Short SNDK stock, entry was at $40.59

Entry on October 13, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11 million
Listed on October 12, 2010


Xilinx, Inc. - XLNX - close 26.34 change -0.14 stop 27.42

Target(s): 25.00, 24.60, 24.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.75, 26.00, 25.30, 25.00, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: -2.09%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/18: XLNX was down nearly -2.5% in early trading today but the stock found support at its 50/200 day SMA and drifted higher into the close, regaining most of those losses. XLNX has not performed as well as the broader market since its April highs and is at resistance levels. If the broader market corrects here XLNX and the Semi's could fall hard and this is when readers should exit positions and book profits. If XLNX takes out today's lows I believe the selling could quickly gain momentum.

10/16 (James): I am still neutral on XLNX as a bearish trade. The semiconductor index is still trying to dig its way out of a bearish trend. Bigger picture XLNX actually has a more bullish posture than the SOX index. Depending on your time frame and bias XLNX is rising in a new bullish channel or consolidating in a bear flag pattern. It is true that the 50-dma just crossed under the 200-dma (a "death cross), which is normally a very bearish development. I'll repeat my comments from Thursday: If you're going to launch new bearish positions consider using a very tight stop loss!

10/14 (James): I am somewhat neutral on XLNX at the moment. I do see plenty to worry about. The MACD is about to roll over into a new sell signal. The simple 50-dma is about to perform a "death cross" and slip under the 200-dma, which is normally a very bearish event. RSI is rolling over. On Wednesday the stock produced a failed rally at $27.00. However, at the same time XLNX has a bullish trend of higher lows dating back to late August. If you're going to launch new bearish positions consider using a very tight stop loss!

Current Position: Short XLNX stock, entry was at $25.80

Options Traders: Long November $25.00 PUT

Entry on October 7, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million
Listed on October 6, 2010