Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 1/4/2011

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Cracks In the Foundation

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown
The bullish short squeeze from Monday evaporated despite better than expected economic numbers and a sharp decline in small caps is a warning of potential weakness ahead.

Market Statistics

The morning started off well despite the early morning decline in the markets. The big economic news for the morning was the Factory Orders for November. The headline number rose by +0.7% and more than twice the +0.3% analysts expected. It was considerably stronger than the -0.9% decline in October. This improvement is consistent with the rebound shown in other reports over Q4 and represents an accelerating economy. Core capital goods orders rose a whopping +2.6% after a -3.2% decline in October. The accelerated depreciation portion of the recent tax cut extension program could ramp up orders of computer equipment to a fever pitch and that should start in the first quarter.

Vehicle Sales for December continued to improve at an annualized rate of 12.5 million units compared to 12.3 million in November. This is the highest level since September 2008. The rise in sales has been due to new models, decent discounts and a release of pent up demand. Analysts believe this will continue throughout 2011. The current rate of sales is far better than the 9.4 million pace in September 2009.

Sales for all manufacturers rose except for Toyota, whose sales fell -6% in December and sales for the year were flat. This is due to the falling sales of the expensive Prius and the switch back to SUVs by the consuming public. Gasoline prices had spent the year in a moderate range and now those SUV buyers are going to start paying the piper in 2011. That two percent hike in net pay by reducing the social security tax is going to be spent at the gasoline pump.

The Fed released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December. For the time being there appears to be no likelihood of change in the QE2 program. Members were slightly more upbeat about the improving economy due in part to the tax extension bill.

The FOMC debated what it would take to change the QE2 program. They agreed that improvement of economic data alone was insufficient to alter QE2. More time and data is needed before considering a QE2 adjustment. Some thought the threshold was very high to make changes to the program. Small incremental changes in the economics and employment would not be enough to justify changing the strategy.

Some Fed members are also seeing the possibility of a more rapid recovery. The members did see the tax cut extension package as helping growth in 2011. Members believed housing, weak job growth and continued consumer deleveraging was restraining growth. The Fed said a cutback in government spending resulting in more job cuts was an additional risk to the economy and another reason to continue QE2. Europe was also seen as an economic risk.

The Fed staff saw a lowered risk of deflation and increasing risk the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet could trigger inflation but expectations were still low.

Why are rates higher when the Fed is buying up every treasury in sight? Reasons given in the minutes were market anticipation of a halt to QE2 due to better economic data, higher deficit projections, year-end positioning of portfolios and the accelerating recovery was boosting expectations for the future.

The Fed staff revised up the economic outlook and revised down the inflation expectations for 2011 and 2012. They are pretty confident they are going to avoid waking the inflation monster despite the additional risk caused by QE2. The Fed based this lower inflation outlook on the inability of businesses to pass along higher costs in consumer prices. There is still too much slack in the manufacturing sector and too little demand by the consumer for price inflation in the near future. Many of the members still felt there was still downside risk from unemployment and the weakness in housing.

The Fed members continued to see progress toward their dual mandate of stable prices and high employment as "disappointingly slow."

The FOMC is going to shift in tone as more hawkish members rotate into voting position. To avoid having a stagnant board the Fed members rotate in and out of voting positions. When this happens in January the number of dissenters will increase to three. They will be Richard Fisher, Charles Plosser and Narayana Kocherlakota. They could decide to cast one dissenting vote per meeting to show their individual dissent or all three vote at once to express a high degree of frustration. Having all three dissent at one would not be market friendly. It would damage the Fed's credibility and the market would immediately assume the worst. Members Hoenig and Lacker and to some extent Warsh are also strongly opposed to QE2 but are not voting members in 2011.

Wednesday's economic reports are not going to cause many ripples unless the ADP report suggests a much better or worse Non-Farm Payroll number for Friday. This will be the key report for the day with the ISM services more of a filler report since ISM manufacturing was a seven-month high.

Economic Calendar

In stock news Atheros Communications (ATHR) spiked +19% on news Qualcomm may be interested in buying the company to bolster its share for chips for smartphones and tablets. The sales price could be in the $3.5 billion range or roughly $45 per share. Qualcomm has about $10 billion in cash thanks in part to its popular Snapdragon processor. Atheros makes chips for Bluetooth, GPS and wireless networks and many mobile devices.

Hello Moto! Chip company Motorola (MOT) split into two companies today. Motorola Solutions (MSI) and Motorola Mobility (MMI). The solutions company (MSI) saw its stock spike +7% to $39.77 while the Mobility company rose +6% to $33.11. Apparently two companies are better than one given the strong gains after the split. MMI is the unit that makes cellphones and video equipment. Owners of MOT received eight shares of MMI for each share of MOT they owned. Then the original MOT shares underwent a 1:7 reverse split and began trading under the symbol MSI. That was to prevent the MOT shares from collapsing to one-eighth of their value. As a result the value of both shares today is actually more than the value before the split. Apparently investors liked the split, which had been in the works for nearly two years.

Motorola (MSI) Chart

After the bell Mosaic (MOS) posted earnings of $1.01 that easily beat analyst estimates of 91-cents. That compares with 24-cents in the year ago period. Mosaic earned $1.03 billion for the quarter on a strong increase in sales. Mosaic said plantings of corn, wheat and soybeans are expected to rise sharply with prices for those crops sitting at near record highs. The company said, "Everything we see on the horizon is in support of higher fertilizer prices. We are feeling very confident about the business. Demand is booming and our outlook looks good from any angle." Sales of potash rose +69% in the quarter. Mosaic is in the middle of a $5 billion campaign to boost potash capacity by more than five million tones over the next ten years. Shares of Mosaic rose +2.24 to $77.24 in after hours trading.

Mosaic Chart

We are approaching the beginning of the Q4 earnings cycle and results like we saw from Mosaic could keep investors in stocks for another couple weeks. Alcoa will be the first Dow component to report on Monday. Over 150 stocks report next week but the real deluge of earnings does not begin until the week of January 17th. The companies reporting next week will be just an appetizer ahead of the main course.

The big movers in the market on Tuesday were commodities. The dollar rebounded from a six-week low and investors took profits on metals and energy. Crude prices dropped nearly -$3.00 intraday to $88.36 before rebounding at the close to end down -$2.24 at $89.31. The decline from two-year highs was dramatic and there was no specific reason. I mentioned the rising dollar as a factor but the 50 basis point rise in the dollar index was not responsible for the decline in crude. It may have accelerated the decline but it did not cause it. Crude as well as the other commodities were simply overbought and needed an excuse to rest.

Crude Oil Chart

Silver declined about $1.50 to $29.32 intraday or about -5% before rebounding slightly. Silver has been on a rocket ride since September and the onset of QE2 buying. The Fed alluded to a new QE program on August 27th and commodities have gone vertical since the announcement. Does anyone actually believe silver is worth 65% more today than it was worth on August 27th?

Chart of Comex Silver - Daily

Copper declined -$9 on Tuesday after a $5 drop on Monday. Copper has been on a winning streak since its low in June and was impacted by the QE2 expectations but not as much as silver and gold. Copper appears to be in the correction process with strong declines on both days this week. This is clearly profit taking now that the tax year has changed. I would look to buy a dip in copper but only a big dip. Another $2-$3 is not material. A continued decline of $30 would be buyable for me. I know that is a big hit with global supplies declining and one entity holding 90% of LME inventories but should that individual decide to take profits we could see a serious decline.

Copper Chart

Gold prices have lost more than $40 so far in January. Gold is really in correction mode and is trading at $1380 overnight after hitting a high of $1424.40 on Monday. The chart on gold began to show a topping pattern in December but the gold bugs were successful in pushing it back to resistance to end the year. Now that the window dressing and tax accounting is over the selling has begun. A break below $1380 could test $1325 very quickly.

Gold Chart

The S&P-500 gave back less than two points of Monday's big gain. That left it well above that price magnet at 1258 and well above initial support at 1254. The odds are good we will test those levels before too long. If the commodities continue to sell off the profit taking disease will eventually be contagious to the broader equity market.

Everything we saw in the FOMC minutes was conducive to the market continuing higher BUT that is long-term support not short term. We are still way overbought and I suspect traders are looking for that excuse to sell. It may not appear until next week despite the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. That report could keep investors interested with expectations for a better than expected job gain.

The S&P has not returned to uptrend support since August. It is way over due and we know from past experience nothing goes straight up. All the positive news, except for Q4 earnings, has already been priced into the market. How much longer the market can survive on stale news is a mystery and one I am sure we will see answered in the next couple weeks.

S&P-500 Chart

The Dow managed to claw back from a decent intraday decline to post a decent gain thanks to Dow components Disney, Hewlett Packard and Verizon. Unfortunately that gain only brought the index back to uptrend resistance and very close to strong resistance at 11700 from August 2008. This was where the Dow finally failed before plunging to the March 2009 lows. This should be a difficult area to cross.

Initial support should be in the 11,550 range and well below today's close. This means the spike from Monday is very unprotected but that did not seem to matter today.

Dow Chart - Daily

Dow Chart - Weekly

The Nasdaq struggled to return to positive territory after a steep morning decline but the index could not make the trip. Large losses in stocks like PCLN -6.61, LULU -4.38, SHLD -3.61, DECK -2.53, FFIV -2.26 and GOOG -2.02 were too much for the composite index to overcome. Decliners on the Nasdaq outweighed advancers 1,691 to 779.

Fortunately the Nasdaq only gave back roughly a quarter of its gains from Monday. I am sure we would all take a four steps forward, one step back move every week for the rest of the year.

Support is 2660 and resistance a very firm 2700. That 2700 level as round number resistance could be tough to cross without a little more profit taking to build a base.

Nasdaq Chart

The Russell is the fly in the ointment for the bulls. The Russell came to a dead stop at 800 on both days and then dropped more than 2% intraday to initial support at 780. The rebound from 780 was lacking conviction and suggests the Russell bulls are losing interest. If 780 breaks the long term support at 764 would immediately become the next target.

The Russell is the canary in the coal mine and today's lack of bullishness is troubling. If the Russell declines below 780 I would be exiting any long positions. Support at 764 may only be a speed bump if wholesale profit taking begins.

Russell Chart

In summary I think we have more risk to the downside but it may not develop over the next couple days. I believe this is more of a developing weakness than something that will knock the markets down hard on Wednesday. The bulls are still alive and buying the shallow dips. Until that shallow dip money dries up we are in a mode where time will pass slowly with fits and starts that lead nowhere. I am cautious and I have exited quite a few long positions in expectation of a deeper decline before we can move higher.

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Jim Brown


New Plays

Healthcare

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


NEW BULLISH Plays

WellCare Health Plans, Inc. - WCG - close: 30.03 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 33.75, 37.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Company Description:
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. provides managed care services targeted to government-sponsored health care programs, focusing on Medicaid and Medicare. Headquartered in Tampa, Florida, WellCare offers a variety of health plans for families, children, and the aged, blind, and disabled, as well as prescription drug plans. The Company served approximately 2.2 million members nationwide as of September 30, 2010 (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
WCG has spent the last three months consolidating in the $27.50-30.00 range. Now the stock is on the verge of breaking out higher. Aggressive traders could buy the afternoon bounce today. I would rather see a little more confirmation first. I'm suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $30.75. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $29.40. It could take several weeks before we see WCG hit our targets. Investors will have to decide whether or not they are willing to take the risk of holding over WCG's earnings report in late February.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WCG is bullish with a $41 target.

Trigger @ 30.75

Suggested Position: WCG stock @ $30.75

- or -

Buy the 2011 March $35.00 calls (WCG1119C35) current ask $0.55

Annotated chart:

Entry on January xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/17/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 410 thousand
Listed on January 4th, 2010


In Play Updates and Reviews

Whipsaw Rising

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
The VIX may not be moving much but I'm seeing an increase in volatility. A few stocks were getting whipsawed. One was TRMB which hit our stop loss. On a move positive note DIS broke out past resistance and hit our trigger to open bullish positions.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Automatic Data Processing - ADP - close: 46.88 change: -0.17

Stop Loss: 45.45
Target(s): 49.75, 52.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: There wasn't much follow through on yesterday's rally higher. I would expect ADP to retest the $46.50 level before moving higher (which would help fill the gap). More conservative traders could ait for a new close over resistance near $47.00 before initiating positions. Keep your position size small to limit your risk.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADP is forecasting a bullish price target of $66.00.

Current Position: Long ADP stock @ $46.75

- or -

Long the 2011 February $45.00 call (ADP1119B45) Entry @ $2.00

01/03: Entry @ $46.75
01/01: New stop loss @ 45.45
01/01: New entry point @ current levels, new option strike (Feb. $45)

Entry on January 3 at $46.75
Earnings Date 01/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on December 16th, 2010


Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 57.41 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 54.90
Target(s): 59.75, 64.00, (option exit 61.75)
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: ALK reported their December results and 2010 results today. ALK's number of revenue passenger miles rose from 18.4 billion in 2009 to 20.35 billion in 2010. December saw its traffic numbers up 13.3%. Worries over rising oil prices still hangs over the airline sector but the XAL managed to post a gain today. ALK underperformed its peers with a -0.8% loss. I am not suggesting new bullish trades in ALK at this time.

We want to sell half of our stock position at $59.75. Sell all of our January options at $61.75. Sell the rest of our stock position at $64.00.

Current Position: Long ALK stock @ $54.91

- or -

Long the 2011 January $60 calls (symbol: ALK1122A60) entry @ $1.60

12/21: First target is 59.75, adding second target at $64 for ALK stock.
12/21: Adjusting our only exit target on the calls to $61.75.

Entry on November 22 at $54.91
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand
Listed on November 20th, 2010


Popular Inc. - BPOP - close: 3.12 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 2.75
Target(s): 3.40, 3.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.0%
Time Frame: 12 to 16 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Warning! After BPOP's recent strength the stock just produced a potential bearish reversal pattern. Today's rally failed at $3.25 and shares closed with a 2.5% loss. The move is somewhat reminiscent of the failed rally in mid December. I'm not suggesting new positions at current levels. Conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to the 50-dma (currently near $2.90).

Current Position: Long BPOP stock @ $3.00

- or -

Long the 2011 April $3.00 calls (BPOP1116D3) Entry @ $0.34

12/22: Close over $3.00 is another bullish entry point.
12/18: New stop loss @ 2.75

Entry on December 14 at $ 3.00
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million
Listed on December 11th, 2010


Citigroup Inc. - C - close: 4.90 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 4.49
Target(s): 5.00, 5.35
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.5%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: It was a quiet day for Citigroup with the stock closing unchanged on the session. Our first target to take profits is at $5.00. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at these levels. This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit their risk.

Current Position: Long Citigroup stock @ $4.73

- or -

Long the 2011 March $5.00 calls (C1119C5) Entry @ $0.20

Entry on December 20 at $ 4.73
Earnings Date 01/18/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 688 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - close: 42.49 change: -0.91

Stop Loss: 39.80
Target(s): 44.95, 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.5%
Time Frame: 12 to 14 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Bingo! If you wanted to buy a pull back in CBD then you got your chance today. Shares rallied off a test of the 10-dma this afternoon. CBD can be a volatile stock so readers should consider this a higher-risk trade.

NOTE: We may need to reconsider our time frame on CBD. It could take longer than previously expected for shares to hit our targets.

Current Position: Long CBD stock @ $40.25

01/01 new stop loss @ 39.80
12/29 new stop loss @ 39.25
12/21 New stop loss @ 37.90

Entry on November 23 at $40.25
Earnings Date 03/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 608 thousand
Listed on November 20th, 2010


Check Point Software Technologies - CHKP - close: 46.88 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 43.95
Target(s): 47.25, 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Tuesday was also a quiet day for CHKP. Looking at the intraday chart you can see that traders are still buying the dips. Our first target has already been hit. We're aiming for $49.75. More conservative traders might want to consider raising their stops closer to the $45 level. Investors will have to decide whether or not they are willing to hold over CHKP's earnings in late January.

Current Position: Long CHKP stock @ $45.10

- or -

Long the 2011 April $45.00 calls (CHKP1116D45) Entry @ $2.55

01/03: 1st Target Hit @ $47.25 (+4.7%) Option @ $3.75 (+47%)

Entry on December 20 at $45.10
Earnings Date 01/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 38.99 change: +1.17

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 39.90, 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: It was a big day for DIS. The stock surged through resistance at $38.00 and broke out to new ten-year highs. DIS hit our trigger to open bullish positions at $38.25. If you missed the entry point then look for a dip back toward the $38.25 area to jump on board. Our targets are $39.90 and $42.50. Our time frame is two or three months.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DIS stock @ 38.25

- or -

Long the 2011 February $40.00 calls (DIS1119B40) Entry @ $0.45

- or -

Long the 2011 April $40.00 calls (DIS1116D40) Entry @ $1.10

01/04: Play triggered @ 38.25

chart:

Entry on January 4 at $38.25
Earnings Date 02/08/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on December 25th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 17.38 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 16.29
Target(s): 18.40, 19.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: The big car makers announced their December sales today. Ford saw a +19% surge in sales, the biggest gain in over 25 years. The stock saw a spike lower intraday but traders bought it near $17.00, which should be short-term support. I would still consider new bullish positions here at current levels.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for Ford is bullish with a long-term target of $19.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Ford stock @ $16.90

- or -

Long the 2011 January $17.50 calls (F1122a17.5) Entry @ $0.25

- or -

Long the 2011 March $18.00 calls (F1119C18) Entry @ $0.61

Entry on December 23 at $16.90
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 58.7 million
Listed on December 22nd, 2010


FLIR Systems Inc. - FLIR - close: 29.08 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 27.40
Target(s): 30.90, 33.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: We have been expecting a correction in FLIR and it looks like that pull back has begun. The stock underperformed the market and closed near the $29.00 level. I'm expecting additional support in the 28.50-28.00 zone with its rising 50 and 200-dma. We can buy FLIR here or look for a dip closer to $28.50. FLIR doesn't move super fast but our targets are $30.90 and $33.00.

Current Position: Long FLIR stock @ $29.10

- or -

Long the 2011 April $30.00 calls (FLIR1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on December 22 at $29.10
Earnings Date 02/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


JB Hunt Transport Services - JBHT - close: 41.26 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 38.75
Target(s): 43.50, 46.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: The afternoon, intraday bounce in JBHT today looks like another entry point but readers may want to raise their stops closer to the $40 level.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JBHT is bullish with a $54.50 target.

Suggested Position: Long JBHT stock @ $40.33

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $40 calls (JBHT1119B40) Entry @ $1.85

12/22 Entry at $40.33
12/21 New Entry Point - Launch Positions Now (open of 12/22)

Entry on December 22 at $40.33
Earnings Date 01/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
Listed on December 13th, 2010


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 28.47 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 29.85, 31.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Shares of MS held up pretty well today. I probably wouldn't chase it. Our first target is $29.85.

Current Position: Long MS stock @ 26.95

- or -

Long the 2011 January $27.50 calls (MS1122a27.50) Entry @ $0.58

- or -

Long the 2011 April $27 calls (MS1116D27) Entry @ $1.64

01/03: New stop loss @ 25.95

Entry on December 22 at $26.95
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.2 million
Listed on December 21st, 2010


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 28.09 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 27.45, 29.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.9%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: MSFT was showing a little relative strength today with a +0.38% gain. While the strength is encouraging I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long MSFT stock @ 25.55

- or -

Buy the 2011 January $25.00 calls (symbol: MSFT1122A25) Entry @ $1.39

12/25/10 new stop @ 25.95
12/18/10 new stop @ 25.70
12/14/10 Target hit @ 27.45 (+7.4%), option @ $2.55 (+83.4%)
12/11/10 New stop @ 25.45
11/29/10 New stop @ 24.70

Entry on November 17 at $25.55
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 68.4 million
Listed on November 15th, 2010


Manitowoc Co. Inc. - MTW - close: 13.49 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 11.95
Target(s): 14.95, 16.25
Current Gain/Loss: +0.0%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/04 update: MTW opened at $13.54 (our entry point) and then corrected back toward the $13 area. I would still buy this stock (or calls) in the $12.75-13.50 zone. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. We're starting this play with a wide (aggressive) stop loss at $11.95. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to 412.50 or even Friday's low near 12.70. Our targets are $14.95 and $16.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for MTW is bullish with a long-term $21 price target.

Current Position: Long MTW stock @ $13.54

- or

Long the 2011 February $14.00 calls (MTW1119B14) Entry @ $0.70

Entry on January 4 at $13.54
Earnings Date 02/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on January 3rd, 2010


Mylan, Inc. - MYL - close: 21.55 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 19.99
Target(s): 22.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 12 to 14 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
01/04 update: MYL is still holding on to yesterday's gains. Currently our plan is to launch bullish positions at $21.25.

The most recent data listed short interest at 12% of the 287 million-share float. Any significant rallies could fuel some short covering.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for MYL is bullish with a $33 target.

Trigger to buy-the-dip @ $21.25

Suggested Position: Buy MYL stock @ $21.25

- or -

Buy the 2011 April $20.00 calls (MYL1116D20)

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.0 million
Listed on December 20th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 15.77 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 14.45
Target(s): 16.75, 17.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.0%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Bulls bought the dip in NVDA near $15.40 midday. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. Wait for a dip closer to $15.00-15.20. Our time frame is two or three months. We'll try and limit our risk with a relatively tight stop loss.

(small positions)

Current Position: Long NVDA stock @ $15.15

- or -

Long the 2011 February $15.00 calls (NVDA1119B15) Entry @ $1.05

- or -

Long the 2011 March $15.00 calls (NVDA1119C15) Entry @ $1.25

Entry on December 31 at $15.15
Earnings Date 02/17/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.2 million
Listed on December 30th, 2010


ResMed Inc. - RMD - close: 35.28 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 32.40
Target(s): 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
01/04 update: There is no change from my prior comments on RMD. I am suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $34.00 with a stop loss at $32.40. If triggered our multi-week target is $38.00.

Trigger to buy-the-dip @ $34.00

Suggested Position: Buy RMD stock @ $34.00

- or -

Buy the 2011 April $35.00 calls (RMD1116D35) current ask $2.05

Entry on January xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 752 thousand
Listed on January 1st, 2010


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 32.48 change: -0.77

Stop Loss: 31.70
Target(s): 35.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: Uh-oh! SBUX gave back a large chunk of its gains from Monday. The move suddenly looks like a failed rally or possibly a bull-trap pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: SBUX is currently in a legal battle with Kraft Foods (KFT) over distribution of SBUX's ground coffee brand but investors seem to be ignoring it.

Suggested Position: Long SBUX stock @ $31.25

- or -

Long the 2011 January $33.00 call (SBUX1122A33) Entry @ $0.55
Long the 2011 April $34.00 call (SBUX1116D34) Entry @ $1.30

01/03/11 New target at $35.75
12/27/10 Trigger hit @ 32.25
12/25/10 new trigger 32.25, new stop 31.70

Entry on December 27 at $32.25
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million
Listed on December 8th, 2010


Sony Corp. - SNE - close: 36.16 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): 37.75, 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: SNE found support near $36.00 this afternoon. The action today looks like another bullish entry point.

Current Position: Long SNE stock @ $35.60
- or -
Long the 2011 APRIL $35 calls (SNE1116D35) Entry @ $2.26

01/01 New stop loss @ 34.75
12/22 Triggered @ $35.60
12/21 New trigger @ 35.60, New stop @ 34.40

Entry on December 22 at $35.60
Earnings Date 02/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 888 thousand
Listed on November 23rd, 2010


Seagate Technology - STX - close: 14.78 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 14.70
Target(s): 16.95, 17.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
01/04 update: STX is still consolidating sideways just above its 200-dma. I am suggesting a breakout trigger at $15.45. Our targets are $16.95 and $17.75. I anticipate this trade taking several weeks. However, STX is due to report earnings in about three weeks. Normally we do not want to hold over earnings. Conservative traders will want to exit ahead of the announcement.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for STX is bullish with a long-term $28.50 target.

Trigger at $15.45

Suggested Position: Buy STX stock @ $15.45

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $15 calls (STX1119B15) current ask $0.91

Entry on January xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million
Listed on January 1st, 2010


Wells Fargo & Co - WFC - close: 31.65 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 28.90
Target(s): 29.25, 32.90
Current Gain/Loss: +17.5%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: WFC inched higher on Tuesday, outperforming its peers. There is no change from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is $32.90. Aggressive traders could set their target near resistance at $34.00 instead. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a long-term $48 target.

Current Position: Long WFC stock @ $26.88

- or -

Long the 2011 January $27.50 call (WFC1122A27.5) Entry @ $1.16

12/22: New stop loss @ 28.90, New final target @ 32.90
12/21: New stop loss @ 28.49
12/09: New stop loss @ $27.90
12/08: Target Hit $29.25 (+8.8%), Option @ $2.30 (+98.2%)

Entry on November 30 at $26.88
Earnings Date 01/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 32.7 million
Listed on November 29th, 2010


World Wrestling Entertainment - WWE - close: 14.13 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 13.90
Target(s): 14.95, 16.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: I have been suggesting readers wait for a dip near $14.15-14.10 as our next entry point. WWE has provided that dip today. More conservative traders may want to wait and buy a bounce. Keep your position size small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: Long WWE stock @ $14.10

- or -

Buy the 2011 April $15.00 calls (WWE1116D15), entry @ $0.45

*Note: The call options on WWE have very large spreads, making them a higher-risk trade.

12/30/10 new stop loss @ 13.90
12/30/10 WWE provides another entry point at $14.15

Entry on December 13 at $14.10
Earnings Date 02/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand
Listed on December 9th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

NII Holdings Inc. - NIHD - close: 43.22 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 41.75
Target(s): 49.00, 53.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: NIHD is still underperforming. Shares did find some support near $43.00 today but the short-term trend is down. I am suggesting an early exit now. I would keep NIHD on your watch list as we might see a new entry point down the road (maybe near $40 or on a close over $46).

Closed Position: Long NIHD stock @ $44.49, exit $43.22 (-2.8%)

- or -

Long the 2011 January $45.00 calls (NIHD1122A45) Entry @ $1.15, exit $0.60 (-47.8%)

- or -

Long the 2011 February $48.00 calls (NIHD1119B48) Entry @ $1.10, exit $0.60 (-45.4%)

01/04: Exit early.

chart:

Entry on December 28 at $44.49
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on December 27th, 2010


Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 40.01 change: -0.63

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 42.75, 44.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 3.0%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04 update: We are getting whipsawed in TRMB. There was no follow through on yesterday's rally. Shares instead spiked lower and dipped to $39.40. Guess what? Our stop loss is $39.40. Our entry point was the opening trade at $40.65 and the trade was closed at the low of the day.

Closed Position: Long TRMB stock @ $40.65 , exit $39.40 (-3.0%)

- or -

Long the 2011 February $40.00 calls (TRMB1119B40) Entry @ $1.85, Exit @ 1.65 (-10.8%)

chart:

Entry on January 4 at $40.65
Earnings Date 02/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 435 thousand
Listed on December 4th, 2010