Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 7/12/2011

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Another Domino Falls

by Jim Brown

Click here to email Jim Brown
Pushing the market lower was news that Moody's cut Ireland's debt to junk but providing an intraday bounce was news the Fed was considering QE3. Whatever happened to trading stocks on fundamentals?

Market Statistics

The equity markets seem to be depending less on stock fundamentals and more on economic and geopolitical news than ever before. Even the Fed is facing the same dilemma. In the FOMC minutes released today we see they were worried that the debt crisis in Europe could continue to grow and bleed over into the global markets and weaken the U.S. economy. Today Moody's cut Ireland's debt to junk to join Portugal and Greece in the junkyard. Ireland had an Aaa rating just two years ago but their recent economic slide and surge in debt forced them to seek a 85 billion euro bailout in November.

The biggest problem facing Europe today is the potential for another round of bailouts after the first group ends and the bailout fund will be depleted. Greece is expected to need another 110 billion euro and Ireland 45 billion. Add in Portugal, Italy a Spain and you are going to need a bigger bailout fund than what the euro nations have already agreed.

Ireland has the second highest debt behind Greece at 118% of GDP. That is up from only 25% in 2007. The EU has already pledged 70 billion euros of the 85 billion requested but that is not going to be enough.

Global stock markets plunged on Tuesday to stretch the three-day decline to the biggest drop since March. U.S. treasury yields fell to the lows for 2011 as the euro weakened overnight to a four month low.

The European debt crisis is far from over and investors are starting to get the feeling this could end badly. The EU finance ministers appear to now be open to a selective default by Greece to reduce the amount of debt they have to repay. This is a bad precedent since it opens the door for similar defaults from the other weak countries and the insolvency of many European banks. This weighed on the global markets and kept the U.S. market from recovering today.

The FOMC minutes produced a minor spike after investors realized the Fed was openly debating whether to begin a QE3 program if the economy remained weak. Some members were open to the idea while others were opposed. All realized the inflation pressure had risen but most believed they were transitory. Those few members who believed inflation was possibly not temporary were the same ones who felt removing the current accommodative monetary policy should begin soon.

The Fed did lay out their plan for removing the current policy once situations warranted it. The first step would be to stop the current reinvestment of principal as existing assets matured. The second step would be to modify the guidance in the FOMC post meeting statements. Third would be to begin raising the Fed Funds target rate and lastly begin selling treasuries currently in the Fed portfolio. That last step would not occur until after the first rate increase. They also expected the sales process to take 3-5 years before the Fed's portfolio returned to normal.

With the FOMC split about future action it is pretty clear that there will be no change in rates until at least the second quarter and most analysts are focused on the June meeting as the first rate hike if the economy recovers as the Fed expects.

Several members were concerned the recovery might proceed slowly and unemployment would continue to be unacceptably high and require some form of Fed intervention. However, after discussing the various options in the FOMC toolkit they expressed concern that the Fed may not be able to stimulate hiring with the current tools. The Fed is trapped in its current position. They can't apply more stimulus in the form of rates because Fed rates are zero. They can't do a QE3 because of political constraints and the potential to increase inflation in commodities. They can't tighten because employment is too low. The bottom line is the Fed will remain on hold unless the economy either worsens appreciably or improves significantly.

It was a good news, bad news report for traders. Good news because the Fed was open to a QE3 program if needed. Bad news there were several hawks on the committee that would require a seriously weakened economy before a QE3 could happen. The announcement spike was quickly sold.

A new program was also announced. The Fed members now have a formal blackout period starting on Tuesday the week before the meeting and ending Friday after the meeting. They will have to refrain from talking about the economy and meeting agenda and refrain from discussing the meeting other than what is specifically in the minutes of the meeting. They also agreed to avoid political partisanship. That last one is interesting since the actions of the Fed reflect on the administration. I suspect the Ron Paul influence in the House is starting to weigh on Fed nerves. Paul is strongly anti Federal Reserve and he is running for president after 12 terms in the House. He first was elected in 1976. After stepping down after four terms he defeated an incumbent in 1996 to take back the seat. He has little or no chance of winning the election but his views about the Fed will be national news fodder in the months ahead.

In the economic news the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a weakening labor market in May. This is no surprise since the nonfarm payrolls for May and June were both weak. The survey period for the JOLTS report covers the last half of May and the first half of June so there is no direct correlation with the nonfarm payrolls. This is a lagging report and was mostly ignored.

The report showed there were three million job openings on the last day of May. This is consistent with what the CEO of Kelly Services said last week. These openings are unfilled because there are not enough qualified people available.

The U.S. International Trade deficit rose to -$50.2 billion in May. That was an increase from the -$43.6 billion in April. That is the highest level since October 2008. Two thirds of the increase came from the rising prices for oil and oil products. Petroleum imports rose +10.3% in value in May. The average price of imported oil in May was $108.70 and the highest since August 2008.

The economic calendar for the rest of the week is very busy but the highlight will be the Bernanke testimony. Now that lawmakers have the FOMC minutes to browse for topics to use in the questioning the attack on Bernanke will be even more aggressive. That makes it even more of a danger to the market. At this point there is little Bernanke can say positive about the economy since his last press conference he said he did not know why the economy was not growing. He has no clue or at least one he will not acknowledge publicly. Always being forced to remain politically correct does have its drawbacks.

Economic Calendar

The potential for another FOMC stimulus program may not be very likely today but the anticipation of the FOMC minutes pushed the dollar lower intraday. When the minutes were released and QE3 was mentioned the fate of the dollar was called into question.

Gold and Oil promptly rocketed higher with gold prices gaining about $24 to close at $1567 today. The intraday high was $1574 and only -$3 from the all time high of $1577.40 set back in April. That represents an $83 gain since the low at $1480 on July 1st. Inflation fears in the U.S., fears the Fed could implement a QE3 and push the dollar lower and fears over a meltdown in Europe have given the gold bugs something to live for.

Gold Chart

Crude prices in the U.S. rallied to $97.50 intraday but the real price of oil as represented by Brent closed at $116.85 and a slight decline from yesterday. Brent is facing declining supply from the North Sea and a temporary shutdown in deliveries from Britain's Buzzard field.

On the positive side Gaddafi appears to be ready to leave Libya. The French reported he is seeking a deal to leave the country as a negotiated end to the crisis. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said "a political solution is more indispensable than ever and is beginning to take shape. Emissaries are telling us Gaddafi is ready to go. The question is no longer whether he goes but when and how." With Nato launching over 100 sorties on Monday the heat is rising in Gaddafi's kitchen. The U.S Stat Dept expressed doubts about the "emissaries" saying a lot of people claim to speak for Gaddafi but their claims are contradictory. Numerous "deals" have been promised over the last several months but none have ever come to pass. It is obvious the oil trading community did not believe it or prices might have declined.

Brent Crude Oil Chart

Alcoa (AA) reported earnings on Monday night that were inline with reduced estimates and the stock declined slightly today after seeing some increased volatility Monday night. It was a lackluster earnings report for a sector that was supposed to post some stellar gains. Alcoa said higher costs for raw materials and higher transportation costs were the problem.

Fastenal (FAST) reported earnings that grew +36% on improving sales. FAST earned +32 cents compared to analyst estimates of 30-cents. Revenue rose +23%. Same store sales rose +19%. The company opened 75 stores in the first six months of 2011.

Fastenal Chart

Infosys (INFY) posted earnings of 67-cents that were less than the 71-cents analysts expected. Revenue rose +23% to $1.67 billion but missed estimates of $1.768 billion. The company hired 9,922 workers in the quarter to raise their total to 133,560 employees. Shares of INFY declined -6%.

Infosys Chart

Wolverine World Wide (WWW), a competitor to Sketchers, Deckers and Timberland, posted its smallest quarterly beat in six quarters due to rising costs and lower margins. WWW earned 48-cents compared to analyst estimates of 46-cents. WWW reiterated full year guidance of $2.40-$2.50 but analysts were expecting $2.48 and the higher end of the range. WWW said the increase in prices for raw materials resulted in a margin decline. Shares of WWW fell -7%.

Wolverine Chart

Granted those companies listed above are not your IBM or Caterpillar but did you notice the common thread in each report. Lower margins and sharply declining stock price after the earnings report. This is what analysts have feared for Q2. Earnings estimates have been slipping although they still are expected to be more than 12.5%. The lackluster performance is indicative of the problems faced in Q2 when consumers pulled back from shopping as gasoline prices rose and companies faced higher input costs from commodities and fuel prices.

You can't draw a conclusion for the quarter based on the earnings so far this week but traders are probably starting to become a little more cautious in the size and quantity of their positions. This is an expiration week and the geopolitical problems, earnings problems and debt battle in Washington are simply adding too much risk for the markets to remain in rally mode without a serious uptick in earnings results soon.

Google has earnings on Thursday with JP Morgan and those will be the earnings traders will seize upon for trading direction. For Wednesday we have Marriott, Yum Brands, ASML and Adtran. They are not expected to move the market like the JPM/GOOG reports have been known to do.

Cisco CEO John Chambers spoke at a conference today but he avoided talking about layoffs. However, sources close to Cisco claim the company is laying off 7,000 workers and offered early retirement packages to another 3,000 who have accepted the offers. Cisco is expected to take charges of up to $1.1 billion for the layoffs. Cisco shares rallied slightly on the news.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) fell -12% after the company cut its guidance and received several downgrades. MCHP said it took a hit from the Japan earthquake that was larger than previously expected. UBS cut its rating from buy to neutral and JP Morgan kept their rating at neutral but cut the price target to $29 from $36. The MCHP CEO cited "broad based weakness" in Q2 in addition to the auto supply problems. MCHP shares declined -12%. The drop in MCHP helped push the Semiconductor Index to a loss of -3%.

MCHP Chart

The markets tried to hold the line today but the late day downgrade of Ireland was the kiss of death. The S&P had held on support at 1320 until the spike after the minutes but the debt downgrade immediately killed the spike and pushed the S&P to close at the low of the day at 1313. This break of support could be critical for Wednesday's market. Granted this was a knee jerk reaction to a late day news event but the decline below the 100-day at 1316 is a sell signal. Unless there is a sudden improvement overseas and overnight the odds are increasing we could see a retest of the 200-day at 1275.

S&P Chart

The Dow broke support at 12,500 and closed at the low for the week. The next support target could eb 12,400 but without a decent improvement in some of the factors weighing on the markets I am not optimistic. The European mess is worsening and earnings in the U.S. have yet to show any positive trend. On the positive side the profit taking from last week's rally has retraced about 35% of the gains so we are due for some bargain hunting soon.

Dow Chart

The Nasdaq was the biggest percentage loser of the major indexes and that was due mostly to the decline in chip stocks thanks to MCHP. The close was exactly on the 38% Fib retracement of the recent gains but still well above the next support level at 2860.

The Nasdaq decline came despite a $10 rally in Google. When GOOG reports earnings on Thursday there is normally a monster knee jerk reaction so traders will probably be skittish of holding their positions in Nasdaq stocks over the Google earnings.

Nasdaq Chart

On Sunday I said I was cautiously bullish going into earnings but that sliver of bullishness was crushed by the daily geopolitical events from Europe and Washington. Add in the so far lackluster earnings and there is no reason to own stocks today. I considered buying the dip all day until the Ireland debt downgrade after 2:PM. After watching the indexes decline on the news to the lows of the day I am glad I waited.

I am now cautiously bearish until after Thursday's earnings. That should be a pivotal point for the week. We had two weeks of amazing gains and now it is time to pay the piper. I suggest waiting patiently on the sidelines for a trend to emerge. Futures are positive as I post this commentary so there is always the possibility of good news breaking out somewhere. Maybe the Ireland drop was just reactionary and cooler heads will prevail.

Jim Brown

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New Plays

EU Worries Do It Again

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

Stocks are correcting thanks to growing worries over the EU periphery. Tomorrow Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks before congress. Stocks may not move much on Wednesday as they wait for any market-moving comments from Uncle Ben. Meanwhile the next major earnings release is not until Thursday.

Considering the current correction in stocks and today's breakdown below support in the S&P 500 it looks like this index is headed for round-number, psychological support near 1300.

I haven't given up on buy-the-dip bullish strategies but we need to be patient. Here are a list of stocks I am watching for potential buy-the-dip trades (SBUX, COH, TJX, BBBY, and TSCO). Plus, a couple of stocks that might be bearish trades are RTN and MS. Shares of both MS and RTN have been sinking on rising volume and just recently broke significant support.

No new candidates tonight.

- James


In Play Updates and Reviews

Stocks Sink Under Support

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
The U.S. markets are sinking under support levels and marking their third daily decline in a row.

Traders should be defensive here. It looks like the S&P 500 is headed for the next level of support near 1300.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alexion Pharma - ALXN - close: 50.41 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 47.75
Target(s): 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/12 update: ALXN is still showing relative strength and managed to post a gain. Shares look a little short-term overbought. I am suggesting we launch positions on a dip at $49.00 with a stop loss at $47.75. If triggered our target is $52.25. However, we don't have much time. Earnings are expected on July 21st and we do not want to hold over the announcement. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ALXN is bullish with a $63 target.

Trigger @ $49.00

Suggested Position: buy ALXN @ $49.00

- or -

buy the AUG $50 call (ALXN1120H50)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on July 11, 2011


American Express Co. - AXP - close: 52.40 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 50.90
Target(s): 54.95
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/12 update: Positive analyst comments on AXP helped boost the stock this morning but gains faded by the close. I am adjusting our strategy. We'll use a buy-the-dip entry at $51.75 and keep our stop at $50.90. Keep in mind that this trade may not get very far. We only have about seven trading days left since we do not want to hold over the earnings report. Please note the new stop loss at $50.90.

Trigger @ 51.75

Suggested Position: buy AXP stock @ 52.00

- or -

buy the Aug. $52.50 call (AXP1120H52.5)

07/12 new trigger @ 51.75
07/11 new stop loss @ 50.90

Entry on July x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 32.73 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 31.90
Target(s): 33.60, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.8%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: CAKE is still consolidating and looks poised to fall toward what should be support near $32.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. We do not want to hold over the July 20th earnings report.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75, exit 0.80 (+6.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 31.90
07/07 Target hit @ 33.60. CAKE +6.5%, option @ $0.80 (+6.6%)
07/05 adjusted 1st target to $33.60
07/02 new stop loss @ 30.75
06/30 consider the opportunity cost of staying in CAKE. maybe you should exit early
06/28 New stop loss @ 29.65
06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Dr. Pepper Snapple - DPS - close: 41.46 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: DPS bucked the trend today and posted a gain. I remain bullish on DPS and would still consider new positions now or near $41.00. More conservative traders may want to hesitate on new positions. Normally I would avoid holding over earnings but I am tempted to hold over DPS' late July earnings report. Our multi-week target is $46.00.

Current Position: Long DPS stock @ $41.71

- or -

Long Aug. $45 call (DPS1120H45) Entry @ $0.30

Entry on July 11 at $41.71
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 55.80 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 53.90
Target(s): --.--, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: I don't see any changes from my prior comments on ECL. The stock is slowly consolidating lower. Look for support near $55 and near $54.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

- or -

July $55 call (ECL1116G55) Entry @ $0.60, exit $1.45 (+141.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 53.90
07/08 planned exit. July $55 call @ $1.45 (+141.6%)
07/07 Plan on exiting our July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 Sell half. ECL @ 56.76 (+6.3%), Option @ $1.75 (+191.6%)
06/30 new stop loss @ 53.45
06/18 new stop loss @ 52.45
06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 53.11 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: Traders bought the dip again in KALU but shares failed at short-term resistance near $54.00. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip closer to $52.00. We have a stop at $51.90.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $59.75 mark since the $60 level looks like resistance. Investors could certainly aim higher. KALU has a high amount of short interest and the stock could experience a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report but the date is not yet confirmed. FYI: Investors should note that the most recent data listed short interest at 9.9% of the very small 18.5 million share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 08/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 41.31 change: -0.98

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 45.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: Bearish earnings and guidance from NVLS and MCHP last night made for a tough day in the semiconductors. The SOX index plunged -2.8%. KLAC gapped open lower at $41.38 and then churned violently between $40.60 and $43. The company did raise its quarterly cash dividend by 40% from 25 cents to 35 cents. Given the sharp sell-off in chip stocks more conservative traders may want to exit our KLAC play early. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Current Position: Long KLAC @ $42.49

- or -

Long AUG $45 call (KLAC1120H45) Entry @ $1.20

Entry on July 11 at $42.49
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 29.66 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 28.49
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.8%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: - 0.6% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: Macy's displayed some relative strength today with a gain. Yet shares were retreating lower into the closing bell. I would still prefer to wait for a bounce near $29.00 before launching new positions.

At the moment our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


UnitedHealth Group Inc. - UNH - close: 51.41 change: +0.47

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: UNH rallied off its lows this morning but the rebound struggled with short-term resistance near $52.00. This doesn't bode well. I am still expecting a dip toward support near $50.00. Keep in mind that we don't have a lot of time left. We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

- small positions -

Suggested Position: Long UNH stock @ $51.25

- or -

Long July $50 call (UNH1116G50) Entry @ $2.07

07/02 new stop loss @ 49.85

Entry on June 24 at $51.25
Earnings Date 07/19/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million
Listed on June 23, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 19.54 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 18.45
Target(s): 24.00, 27.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: WNR tried to rebound this morning but stalled at the $20.00 level. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip near $19.00 or the simple 10-dma instead. Aggressive traders may want to put their stop under support near the $18.00 level instead.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

AMBEV - ABV - close: 31.69 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 35.75, 37.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: The correction in ABV continues. Shares broke down to new relative lows late in the day and hit our stop loss at $31.65.

closed Position: Long ABV stock @ $33.25, exit 31.65 (-4.8%)

- or -

Aug. $34 call (ABV1120H34) entry @ 0.90, exit 0.30 (-66.6%)

07/12 stopped out @ 31.65
07/11 new stop loss @ 31.65

chart:

Entry on July 8 at $33.25
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on July 5, 2011


Interpublic Group - IPG - close: 12.33 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 12.20
Target(s): 13.20
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: IPG gapped open lower at $12.23 and quickly hit our stop loss at $12.20 before rebounding off its lows. Nimble traders may want to consider buying another dip or bounce near $12.00 with a relatively tight stop loss although I would not want to hold over the earnings report.

Our plan was to keep our position size small.

- small positions -

closed Position: Long IPG stock @ $12.17, exit 12.20 (+0.25%)

- or -

Aug $12.00 call (IPG1120H12) Entry @ $0.85, exit 0.70 (-17.6%)

07/12 stopped out @ 12.20
07/09 new stop loss @ 12.20
07/02 new stop loss @ 11.49

chart:

Entry on June 29 at $12.17
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million
Listed on June 28, 2011


Marsh & McLennan Companies - MMC - close: 30.54 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 30.39
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: Yesterday we adjusted our stop loss from $30.45 to $30.39 hoping it would give MMC a little bit more room to move. It was not enough. The stock gapped open lower at $30.37, closing our trade.

closed Position: Long MMC stock @ $30.85, exit 30.37 (-1.5%)

- or -

Aug. $32 call (MMC1120H32) current ask $0.45, exit 0.25 (-44.4%)

07/12 stopped out on gap down at $30.37
07/11 new stop loss @ 30.39
07/09 adjusted strategy. Buy MMC now, new stop loss @ 30.45, small positions only.

chart:

Entry on July 11 at $30.85
Earnings Date 08/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 46.43 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 48.75
Target(s): 47.00, 46.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/12 update: Target achieved. STJ gapped open lower at $46.11 and then dipped to $45.97 before bouncing. Our final exit target was hit at $46.10 for a +9.6% move.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small (about half or less than a normal trade) to limit our risk.

(Small Positions)

closed Position: Short STJ stock @ 51.00, exit 46.10 (+9.6%)

07/12 final target hit @ 46.10
07/09 new stop loss @ 48.75, adjust final target to $46.10
07/01 STJ has filled the gap just as expected
06/25 Adjusted final target to $45.25
06/23 1st target exceeded. Gap down at $46.50 (+8.8%)
06/23 new stop loss @ 50.05
06/16 exit June $50 put @ $1.95 (+95%)
06/15 prepare to exit our June $50 puts on Thursday at the close
06/04 New stop loss @ 51.05, added second target at $45.75
05/23 New stop loss @ 52.26

chart:

Entry on May 20 at $51.00
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on May 16th, 2011