Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 3/29/2012

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Jobless Claims Weigh On Market

by Thomas Hughes

Click here to email Thomas Hughes
Earnings season is beginning to heat up and so far there has not been much to be excited about. Economic data continues to come in mixed and makes me ask the question, is the economic recovery really expanding or are we reaching a cyclical peak.



Futures had been trading lower before the announcement of today's economic data. The release of today's data and revisions to last week caused an immediate 15 point drop in Dow futures to -45. The index, at opening, traded down around 55 points from yesterday's open in the first minutes.

There is a surprising revision in the initial claims data that shows a different picture than the previously released information.

Initial claims last week, which had been at 4 year lows, was revised upward by 4.6% to 364,000 from 348,000. This week's claims fell from the revised number by 5000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000 claims for an initial week of unemployment. The four week moving average, a lagging but widely accepted indicator of joblessness continued to decline. It fell by 3,500 claims to a four year low of 365,000.

Today's jobs data gives a little different perspective on the state of joblessness. The market previously thought we were at 4 year lows but we really weren't. Revisions, while near the lows, are lending strength to other signs of economic slowing and the need for more quantitative easing which fed chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to in statements earlier this week.

This weeks initial claims data

Continuing claims data fell as well. The previous weeks data was revised down to 3.381 million and data this week fell another 41,000 to to 3.340 million.


Total claims for all forms of unemployment benefits also fell in today's data. Claims dropped by 131,488 to 7.15 million.


The final data for US fourth quarter GDP was also released today. Fourth quarter GDP held steady at 3% and suggests the slowly strengthening economy will continue making gains in the first quarter of 2012. GDP deflator and PCE Price Index also remained steady from previously released data.


The benchmark 30 year mortgage rate fell below 4% last week. The rate was pegged at 3.99%, down from the previous weeks 4.08%. This is nearly a full percent down from last year's number of 4.86% in the comparable week. The rate cost, on average, 0.7 points in prepaid interest to obtain.

Best Buy (BBY) released disappointing earnings this morning alongside plans to close as many as 50 stores next year. The news does little to support the theory of improving jobs, especially with today's revisions to initial claims. The tech retailer posted a loss of over $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, citing lower sales of notebooks and TV's. The company announced plans to close stores and cut 400 jobs as part of an effort to reduce costs by $800 million by 2015. The stock dropped as much as 8% in early trading and ended the day down 6.9% at $24.77.

There was not only negative news in Best Buys statements. The chain is planning to switch its focus to smaller outlet type stores in order to be more competitive and maintain costs. The company is planning to open 100 Best Buy Mobile format stores in fiscal 2013. The losses in 2012, while based largely on sales misses, also included substantial one time charges. Best Buy is also planning to target more online shoppers as well as open new stores in China, which has been a successful strategy for other retailers.

Best Buy Chart

Social media game maker Zynga traded up over 2% in today's trading after their secondary stock offering was priced at $12. The stock has been trading over $12 since late January and could be building support at that level. Today's trading is on high volume and left the stock up by 4.74% at $12.82

Zynga, Daily

Telecom giants AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) both received downgrades today from outperform to neutral. The downgrades come on lowered growth outlooks and valuation. AT&T traded down today, dropping below the 30 day moving average intraday. The stock opened much lower than yesterday's close, below the 30 day moving average, but managed to regain some of the initial loss to close above the average at $31.21

AT&T, Daily

Verizon also traded lower on the downgrade. The bears are taking a bite out of Verizon this week and are making a run toward support at $37. The stock is trading below its 30 day moving average on high volume. At the current level the stock yields over 5% in dividends. In the long term the stock is looking pretty weak.

Verizon, Daily with volume

Verizon, Weekly with MACD

Under Armor (UA) also received a notable downgrade. The stock was reduced from buy to neutral by brokerage firm Longbow. The stock traded down as much as 3.5% in today's action and closed at $1.84, down 1.92% from yesterday's close. The stock found support at the 30 day moving average.

Under Armor, Daily

Ford Motor Company (F) was added to the Top Picks Live list at Citigroup. The stock traded down marginally throughout the day but gained strength in the afternoon to end at $12.49, up 1.38%. The stock is trading right around its 30 day moving average, between short term support and resistance lines at $12 and $13. The technicals are mildly bearish but in decline. The US auto sector improved in 2011 and is still expected to continue improving in 2012.

Ford, Daily

Transocean (RIG), provider of offshore drilling services to the oil industry, was upgraded to outperform from underperform by CLSA. This is the most recent of several upgrades the company has received over the past two months. The upgrades come on expectations of higher realized profits through increased day rates and pass throughs of maintenance costs. The stock dropped below its 30 day moving average early today on weak volume but found support in afternoon trading. The stock has been in decline recently from three month highs but is expected by many analysts to rebound and continue its bull trend.

Transocean, Daily

The oil industry , as represented by the oil industry ETF (OIH), has been trending sideways for much of the last twelve months. The stock is oversold and could be forming support between $39 and $40.

OIH, Daily

Banking giant Wells Fargo (WFC) was upgraded by Nomura to buy from neutral. The company thinks that consensus estimates of Wells Fargo earnings are too low. The technical outlook on the stock is bullish. The short term trend is up with a recent break above resistance on high volume. The price action could be forming a bullish triangle. The stock traded down to end the day at $33.94 , -1.4%, but is still trading near 12 month highs.

Wells Fargo, Daily

The financial sector Spyder (XLF) holds Wells Fargo in top spot as 9% of invested funds. JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C ) and Bank of America round out the top four with 8.5%, 5.5% and 4.6% of total fund money each. The XLF traded down today, and is just under a major resistance level. The stock has been trading up to this level for about two weeks now and is forming a triangle similar to WFC. The move is on mildly increased volume and bullish technical indicators.

The financial Spyder (XLF), Daily

The IPO market is heating up a little. This week there are 9 scheduled IPO's. Annie's(BNNY), a natural food company based in Berkeley, CA opened yesterday to little fanfare but quickly stunned investors as the stock rose above its price range of $14-$16 and closed the day at $31. Today the stock continued its climbed, doubling from its opening price and closing the today up another 6.25% at $37.92.

Annie's, One Minute Intraday Chart

There were two IPO's today, Millennium Media (MM) and Rexnord (RXN). Millennium was priced between $9-$11 but the actual opening was more than double the expected price. The stock opened the day at $25 per share, traded down a little during the day and closed at $25. Millennium is an independent provider of mobile advertising platforms.

Millennium, One Minute Intraday Chart

Rexnord (RXN) is manufacturer and operator of water management and motion control systems. It operates worldwide. The stock was priced in the middle of the expected range of $18-$19 and was met with approval. The stock traded up throughout the day at $20.28.

Rexnord, One Minute Intraday Chart

Rimm announced earnings after the bell today. This is the first quarterly report since the company was taken over by its new and untested CEO, Thorsten Heins. The company has been struggling against competitors in the smart phone sector and is expected unveil new Blackberry 10 technology later this year. The stock has been trading very quietly for the last few months and today was no exception. Anticipation of the statement had the market waiting all day. The actual report failed to inspire confidence in the company but did spark a short covering rally that was halted briefly. RIMM earned an adjusted $0.80 per share. Actual revenue was $4.2 billion versus an estimated $4.54 billion. Sales were at the low end of guidance. Revenue in Heins first quarter as CEO fell roughly 50% from the same period last year.

Rimm, Daily

Redhat, leader in Linux based open source software, soared more than 18% today to a 12 year high. The company reported earning after the bell yesterday and made investors very happy with the news. Full year revenue increased by 25% to $1.13 billion. The gain is on increased subscription revenue, up 22% for the year, and the results of investments in qualified salespeople around the world. The stock opened sharply higher and continued to trade strongly throughout the day on heavy volume.

Redhat, Daily

The price of oil, gas and natural gas all fell sharply today on talks of opening strategic reserves. The US, England and France have been considering the release in order to drive down high gasoline prices at the pump. An unexpectedly large gain in natural gas inventories also helped the move lower. Natural gas inventories rose by 57 bcf, higher than expected. Lower fuel costs could help prolong the current bull market in equities. Light sweet crude traded down as much as 2.5% today, around $102.75/barrel, with Brent crude in tow with a decline of around 1.5%. Gasoline bucked the sell off and traded up about 0.15% during the afternoon hours.

News from Europe was quiet today as the European markets fell to three week lows. Weak data and Bernanke's statements helped to push the region lower. Home prices in the UK suffered their sharpest monthly decline in over two years, this comes ahead of the end of a major tax exemption. Spain is also being watched as the government is expected to release its new “austerity” budget tomorrow. The budget is likely to stir debate and could cause a knee jerk reaction in the European markets.

Gold prices fell again today as the dollar gained strength. The dollar gained today versus the Euro and the Yen but fell slightly to the pound. Other precious metals, silver and copper gained ground as well.

The major indexes all opened lower and traded lower throughout the day. Late afternoon trading brought the Dow back to regain about 0.10% from yesterday's close. Today's trading brought the Dow down to the 30 day moving average, where it found support and then started the advance to close at the days highs. The price trend remains bullish but is at risk of breaking.

The Dow Jones Index, Daily

A look at the Dow Jones Index tracking stock (DIA) shows the same. Volume is low and momentum is weak.

The DIA, Daily

The broader S&P 500 traded in similar fashion but failed to regain positive territory. The index has weak momentum and is overbought.

S&P 500, daily

The long term trend is still up and bullish

S&P 500, weekly

The Nasdaq retreated today as well. The tech heavy index fell by less than a half percent and is still well above the 30 day moving average. Momentum is weakening and the index is also overbought.

Nasdaq, Daily

Tomorrow marks the end of the first quarter of 2012. There are a few IPO's scheduled tomorrow as well. Economic data tomorrow includes the PCE Core prices, Michigan Sentiment and Chicago PMI. Earnings announcements are light, only about 16 companies expected to report.

Thomas Hughes


New Plays

Relative Strength in Software

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


NEW BULLISH Plays

BMC Software Inc. - BMC - close: 40.26 change: +0.31

Stop Loss: 39.30
Target(s): 44.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
Shares of BMC were showing relative strength on Thursday. Traders bought the dip right off the bat this morning. The stock pushed past its recent highs and closed at new multi-month highs. In the last few days BMC has been trying to breakout past resistance near $40.00 and its simple 200-dma.

I want to see a little bit more confirmation. Thus I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $40.55 with a stop loss at $39.30 (under the 10-dma). Our multi-week target is $44.00. We'll have to keep a wary eye on potential resistance at the 300-dma (currently 43.30). FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMC is bullish with a $57 target.

Trigger @ 40.55

Suggested Position: buy BMC stock @ 40.55

- or -

buy the May $40 call (BMC1219E40) current ask $2.10

Annotated chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = xxx million
Listed on March 29, 2011



In Play Updates and Reviews

Time to Update A Few Stops

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
Most of the market managed to rebound off their intraday lows. We are taking a moment to update some stop losses tonight.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Akamai Technologies - AKAM - close: 36.92 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 35.40
Target(s): 39.75 & 41.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: AKAM found support again in the $36.25-36.00 area. This is close enough to the bottom of its bullish channel that traders could buy this bounce. r you could wait for a breakout pat $38.00. I am raising our stop loss up to $35.40.

current Position: Long AKAM stock @ $36.82

- or -

Long Apr $36 call (AKAM1217D36) entry $1.92

- or -

Long May $40 call (AKAM1219E40) entry $1.39

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.40
03/15/12 new stop loss @ 34.95
03/13/12 trade opened this morning
03/12/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on March 13 at $36.82
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on March 10, 2011


ANN Inc. - ANN - close: 28.96 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 27.90
Target(s): 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: It was a very quiet day for ANN. Shares almost closed unchanged on the session. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ANN stock @ 29.25

- or -

Long May $30 call (ANN1219E30) current ask $1.05

03/28/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
03/26/12 ANN gapped open above our trigger (28.75). Trade opened this morning at $28.89

Entry on March 26 at $28.89
Earnings Date 05/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on March 24, 2011


Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 38.56 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 37.60
Target(s): 44.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: Traders bought the dip near $37.60 for the third time in the last two weeks. Today's intraday low was actually $37.64. We do have a stop loss at $37.60. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The rise past $39.00 has created a brand new Point & Figure chart triple top breakout buy signal that is currently forecasting at $50 target.

current Position: Long BRCM stock @ $38.75

- or -

Long May $40 call (BRCM1219E40) Entry $1.52

03/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.60, BRCM could be forming a bearish reversal.

Entry on March 19 at $38.75
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on March 17, 2011


ClickSoftware Tech. - CKSW - close: 12.76 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 12.40
Target(s): 14.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/29 update: CKSW bounced off the bottom of its $12.00-13.00 trading range and closed up +0.7%. We are waiting for a breakout past resistance.

I am suggesting a trigger to open small bullish positions at $13.15. We will try and limit our risk with a stop at $12.40. Our target is $14.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CKSW is bullish with a $19.25 target.

Trigger @ 13.15

Suggested Position: buy CKSW stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the May $12.50 call (CKSW1219e12.5)

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 184 thousand
Listed on March 26, 2011


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 36.99 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 36.65
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: EBAY is flirting with a breakdown from its $37-38 trading range. The intraday low was $36.71. We are turning more defensive here and raising the stop loss to $36.65. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long EBAY stock @ $36.29

- or -

Long Apr $35 call (EBAY1221D35) entry $2.02

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 36.65
03/26/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
03/13/12 trade opened this morning
03/12/12 not open yet. try again. added a trigger at $36.85

Entry on March 13 at $36.29
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.6 million
Listed on March 10, 2011


Level 3 Communications - LVLT - close: 26.44 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 24.70
Target(s): 29.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: LVLT rallied off its morning lows to close up +0.6%. Yet shares are still trading with a short-term bearish trend of lower highs. More conservative traders may want to exit early or raise their stop loss. If the market continues to dip I am expecting LVLT to pull back toward the $25.25-25.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
The stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 26% of the 153 million-share float. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LVLT is bullish with a long-term $41.50 target.

current Position: Long LVLT stock @ $26.17

- or -

Long Apr $25 call (LVLT1221D25) Entry $2.30

03/26/12 today's bounce off the 10-dma could be a new entry point
03/15/12 new stop loss @ 24.70, adjust exit target to $29.00
03/15/12 trade opened on LVLT's gap higher at $26.17, which is above our trigger to open positions at $25.25.

Entry on March 15 at $26.17
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on March 14, 2011


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 44.67 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: Profit taking in NTAP has pushed the stock back down toward prior resistance and what should be support near $44.00. NTAP hit $44.15 before trimming its losses. I would wait for a rally back above $45.00 before considering new positions.

Our short-term target is $49.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart for NTAP is bullish with a $65.00 target.

current Position: Long NTAP stock @ $45.97

- or -

Long Apr $45 call (NTAP1221D45) Entry $2.05

Entry on March 26 at $45.97
Earnings Date 05/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on March 24, 2011


NXP Semiconductors - NXPI - close: 26.61 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 25.35
Target(s): 29.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: NXPI dipped to $25.68 intraday. I would wait for NXPI to rally past $27.00 again before considering new bullish positions. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NXPI is bullish with a $45.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NXPI stock @ $26.50

- or -

Long Apr $25 call (NXPI1221D25) Entry $2.25

03/23/12 NXPI hit our trigger for small positions at $26.50

Entry on March 23 at $26.50
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on March 19, 2011


Ardea Biosciences - RDEA - close: 21.84 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 21.40
Target(s): 24.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: Uh-oh! Broken resistance near $22.00 should have been support. Instead RDEA fell to $21.57 and bounced near its simple 300-dma instead. If the correction lower continues we could see RDEA hit our stop loss at $21.40 soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RDEA is bullish with a long-term $31.50 target.

current Position: Long RDEA stock @ $22.65

03/23/12 RDEA hit our entry trigger @ 22.65

Entry on March 23 at $22.65
Earnings Date 03/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 307 thousand
Listed on March 22, 2011


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 43.95 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 42.95
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/29 update: Our STJ trade is still not open yet. The stock gapped down at the open this morning. I want to see some follow through on today's intraday bounce. We will adjust our entry point strategy to launch positions if STJ can trade at $44.25 or higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for STJ is bullish with a $66.00 target.

Trigger @ 44.25

Suggested Position: buy STJ stock @ (open)

- or -

buy the May $45 call (STJ1219E45)

03/29/12 new entry point: trigger @ 44.25
03/28/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on March 27, 2011


Stamps.com Inc. - STMP - close: 28.16 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 26.49
Target(s): 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: STMP dipped to $27.00 and its 20-dma before bouncing back and paring today's losses to -20 cents. At this point I would wait for a rally past $29.25 before considering new bullish positions. We are raising our stop loss up to $26.49.

Earlier Comments:
If the rally does continue we could see STMP accelerate due to short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 16% of the very small 13.2 million share float.

This is a volatile stock. I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

Current Position: Long STMP stock @ $28.25

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (STMP1221D30) Entry $0.85

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 26.49
03/21/12 STMP hit our entry trigger at $28.25

Entry on March 21 at $28.25
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 508 thousand
Listed on March 15, 2011


TJX Companies - TJX - close: 39.22 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 37.95
Target(s): 41.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: TJX is hovering near short-term support at the $39.00 level. I don't see any changes from my prior comment except that we're raising the stop loss to $37.95. More conservative traders may want to take profits on a spike near $40.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long TJX stock @ $38.60

- or -

Long Apr $37.50 call (TJX1221D37.5) Entry $1.60

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 37.95
03/26/12 conservative traders may want to take profits near the $40.00 mark
03/21/12 TJX hit our entry trigger at $38.60

Entry on March 21 at $38.60
Earnings Date 05/15/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million
Listed on March 20, 2011


The Toro Company - TTC - close: $71.34 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 69.40
Target(s): 74.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: TTC recovered off its intraday lows and eked into positive territory by the closing bell. Readers may want to wait for TTC to breakout past $72.00 before initiating new positions.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TTC is bullish with a $79.00 target.

current Position: Long TTC stock @ $69.32

03/27/12 new stop loss @ 69.40
03/22/12 adjust exit target to $74.75
03/20/12 new stop loss @ 67.40
03/15/12 new stop loss @ 66.40
03/13/12 Our TTC trade has been opened.
03/12/12 trade did not open. try again.
03/10/12 trade did not open. try again.
03/09/12 trade did not open. TTC opened lower and then bounced

Entry on March 13 at $69.32
Earnings Date 05/21/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 330 thousand
Listed on March 08, 2011


Websense, Inc. - WBSN - close: 21.18 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 20.30
Target(s): 23.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: WBSN spent Thursday hovering above short-term support at the $21.00 level. A bounce off $21.00 and its 10-dma could be considered a new entry point. We are raising the stop loss to $20.30. More conservative traders may want to tighten theirs even further. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WBSN is bullish with a $26.00 target.

current Position: buy WBSN stock @ $21.24

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 20.30
03/26/12 Trade opened on WBSN's gap higher at $21.24. This is above our trigger of $21.15.

Entry on March 26 at $21.24
Earnings Date 04/24/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 388 thousand
Listed on March 22, 2011


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 45.12 change: -0.39

Stop Loss: 44.30
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: WYN bounced off its simple 30-dma again but shares still settled with a -0.8% decline. We are turning more cautious here and will raise the stop loss up to $44.30. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our multi-week target is $49.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WYN is bullish with a long-term $82.00 target.

current Position: Long WYN stock @ $45.25

- or -

Long Apr $45 call (WYN1221D45) Entry $1.65

03/29/12 new stop loss @ 44.30
03/13/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
03/13/12 trade triggered at $45.25

Entry on March 13 at $45.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on March 12, 2011


Zumiez, Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 36.35 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: ZUMZ saw a small spike down at the open but shares held above short-term support in the $36.20-36.00 zone. I would still consider new positions here if the S&P 500 index opens positive tomorrow. Otherwise you could wait for a new relative high above $37.35 as an entry point.

(small positions)

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ $36.56

- or -

Long Apr $40 call (ZUMZ1221D40) Entry $0.45

Entry on March 29 at $36.56
Earnings Date 05/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 472 thousand
Listed on March 28, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Greenbrier Companies - GBX - close: 19.91 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 22.05
Target(s): 18.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/29 update: GBX has closed under support at $20.00 and its simple 200-dma for the first time in months. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are aiming for $18.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Traders should be aware that the $20.00 level, with the 200-dma, could be short-term support but we are aiming for a drop to $18.50.

current Position: short GBX stock @ $21.50

03/28/12 new stop loss @ 22.05, readers may want to take profits now
03/26/12 new stop loss @ 22.55
03/17/12 Friday's intraday pullback from $23.00 can be used as a new bearish entry point.
03/14/12 triggered at $21.50
03/13/12 removed the April $22.50 put as a suggested trade due to a ridiculously wide spread.

Entry on March 14 at $21.50
Earnings Date 04/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 468 thousand
Listed on March 12, 2011