Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 9/27/2012

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Mixed Data Supports Markets...Again

by Thomas Hughes

Click here to email Thomas Hughes
Headlines from Spain and economic data continue to make the market's head spin. There is good news and some bad news but as usual nothing seems to match up. Spain was expected to release its new budget and bail-out requirements this morning but by 11:08:00 AM EDT they still had not uttered a peep. Our own economic calendar was full with about a half dozen key metrics released today. Declining unemployment and declining GDP, while at odds with each other helped the S&P maintain its most recent near term support levels.


Market breadth was fairly strong in early trading. At 10Am advancers were leading decliners by just about 2 : 1. By the end of the day the tide rolled on and advancers increased their advantage to a ration of 3 : 1.


Futures trading indicated a strong opening despite the wishy washy economic data. Jobless claims fell sharply but so did some other metrics that are not so rosy. Initial claims for unemployment fell 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000 for the week ending 9/21. This was well below analysts forecasts and includes and upward revision of 3,000 claims to the previous weeks data. The consensus forecast was for a much smaller decline to 375,000. The drop in claims has also brought down the 4 week moving average of initial claims which shed 4,000 and fell to 374,000.

It seems that both the initial data and the average have made a new lower peak, at least in the short term, and could be considered to be down trending. The labor market data also appears to show a fairly stable jobs environment (as in the way it is now is the way it is) and supports the Feds recent statements concerning high unemployment persisting through 2013.


Continuing and total jobless claims both fell by marginal amounts and remained virtually unchanged. Continuing claims held steady around 3.27 million and total claims around 5.17 million. Both data points have been in decline this year but continuing claims bottomed over the summer. Longer term unemployment is still in decline but the near and mid term numbers remain steady. Could it be that people are finding work? New jobs creation and unemployment figures are due out next week.



The US second quarter GDP final number was released this morning as well and revealed “near recessionary levels” according to Art Cashin on CNBC. This should have come as a big shock to the markets but I think it was more or less expected. The way that expectations and results have been diminishing over the last quarter it would be hard to expect that the previous GDP estimate would stand. Two major portions of the loss were in consumer spending and business investment. The lower GDP number does raise speculation over whether or not we will enter recession again next year. The fiscal cliff still looms over the nation and won't help the already low expectations for Q3, Q4 and 2013.


Durable goods orders became a drag on the third quarter today, dropping -13% from last month. This marks the biggest decline in 3 years and is a reverse of the previous months gain. Housing data was also a mixed bag this week. Yesterday revealed that while home prices are rising sales are in decline. Today pending home sales numbers also showed a decline, dropping 2.6%. The drop was more than expected but still more than 10% higher than last year. The housing market certainly has recovered somewhat but is still no where near as robust as it once was or even where economist think it should be now.

The European markets ended the generally up. The heavily anticipated announcement of Spain's 2013 budget, delayed to coincide with the market close, was received well by the markets. After hours trading overseas left their indexes in the green. The Spanish budget is aimed at cutting spending, primarily in social areas, instead of raising taxes. They are choosing to spend less rather than pay more, which is probably best. There were also some reports that one of Spain's regions, Castilla-La Mancha, was going to need 800 million euros but I never did hear the resolution of that. Hopefully this new plan for Spain will put a stop to the violence going on in Madrid over the austerity measures.

The Asian markets also ended the day up. The uneasiness over Europe may be abating there for a while. Asia needs a strong Europe and Eurozone so anything good that happens in Europe is good for China. Other headlines from China reported that industrial profits in the nation had dropped 6% on a year-to-date basis and that the People's Bank Of China had made a record cash injection into the system in efforts to stimulate the nations growth. A board member of the Bank Of Japan made statements echoing the move of the PBOC. He said that the the Japanese central bank “stands ready” to provide more stimulus because they are concerned about Japan meeting its economic targets for 2012.

All the talk of available money sent the price of gold up today. Gold climbed more than 1.5% and made a new closing 6 month high. The Gold Index responded in kind and gained nearly 2%. The index is confirming the breakout and setting a new upward trend line. Momentum looks good for at least a retest of the recent highs at $220. A break above that level could take the index to $235-$240. If there is any more stimulus, especially from the FOMC, gold could set more new highs.

The Gold Index, daily

Oil gained +2% today on mid-east tensions, refinery issues and stimulus driven hope. The gain only recovers a small portion of the 10% drop in oil prices this month. The drop in prices is good for business, lowering costs and inflationary pressure but it is hurting the oil industries profit outlook and has halted the advance of the oil index.

The index has dropped from its downward trending upper range boundary and is now sitting on the short term moving average. The long term charts show a range bound index with a narrowing channel, oil prices are likely to drift sideways while the global economy is still hiccuping and the oil index will likely follow.

The Oil Index, weekly

The yield on US debt climbed today but remains near two month lows. The yield on the ten year note remains well below the short term moving average and the recently formed gap. While we should expect the gap to be filled when is always in question.

The Ten Year Yield, daily

Turning to earnings, which are starting to trickle in again, there are three notable names in the news today. Micron Technologies, Nike and Research In Motion all reported after the bell today. Micron, which is still recovering from the tragic loss of its CEO last year, was expected to in widen its quarterly loss by 50%. The actual results were worse than expected and sent shares tumbling in the after markets.

Micron Technologies, weekly

Nike's profits were expected to drop by a consensus of $0.24 per share but surprised analysts with a much smaller decline. The stock, which has recovered most of its share value after gapping down in July, traded up today but under resistance. Weakness in Europe offset gains in other areas and sent the shares down in after hours trading. The stock is showing some support in the region between $85 and $95 and will probably trend sideways into that range.

Nike, daily

Research in Motion topped analysts forecasts for profits and revenue. The stock jumped in after hours trading and gained more than 10%.

Research In Motion, daily

Two of today's leading sectors were the financials and the energy sector. Not surprising, these are two great sectors for dividends and there are great plays in both for long term investment. The small and regional banks as well as the regional power providers have been performing well over the last 2-3 years, due to improving profits, operations and the steady return of cash dividends. The Bank Index, which is a blend of the large and medium/small US banks made a new high just this month before retreating to lower levels. The index is now looking for support at the short term moving average.

Bank Index, daily

The Utilities Sector Spyder has had a nice run up over the last three years reaching a peak this past August. The ETF has since retreated to support at $36 where it appears to be stabilizing.

The Utility Spyder(XLU), weekly

The VIX fell back today, dropping +1%. The index is back below 15 and near all time lows once again. Thinking about the fact that the VIX is a measure of the relationship of the price of options to the price of the index makes me think that the VIX is so low because people are selling options. When I checked the OptionsXpress put/call ratio the long ratio was very low at 0.38 suggesting that few traders were buying puts for protection. The short ration was very high at 0.98 which suggests that traders are also overly optimistic and selling a high number of short puts. These two extremes lend weight to my theories on the VIX and the spike in volatility I expect is on the way.

VIX, daily

Stocks drifted into positive territory after the open with the S&P fluctuating around +5. The drop yesterday and over the last couple of days has brought the S&P down to previous resistance that has now turned into support. It was good to see the S&P remain above the 1430 level today. This mornings data should have sent the markets lower but there has been a disconnect from reality for some time in my opinion.

Our markets, like the European exchanges, were awaiting the Spanish budget announcement. Following the statements, which had been scheduled for earlier in the morning, were taken as a green light by US traders. The S&P quickly tripling the days gains to +15. The index is still in-line with its “break out” trend and is also supported by the 30 day moving average. Momentum indicators are still divergent but not giving any kind of a definite signal at this point on the daily charts.

S&P 500,daily

On the weekly charts momentum is also divergent but still bullish. The trend is still bullish as well so that is the stance I have to take despite, once again, that the evidence is against a rally. The next resistance that I can determine is at the all time highs around 1570.

S&P 500, weekly

I expect volatility to begin to increase any time now. There are just too many reasons for stocks not to go up. Earnings are weak, expectations are lower, the worlds largest economies are still slowing and costs are rising. I have started to think of this rally not so much as a rally but as a time when stocks were simply allowed to go up. There are bears out there somewhere just waiting to take a swipe out of the markets. I thought that time was when the S&P hit the 1380-1420 level but I was wrong. Not the index has moved beyond that level and is establishing support along a new trend line.

Data, earnings and news will drive the market as always. October is upon us a new round of monthly figures and estimates is due. Next week look out for the next round of unemployment and jobs creation figures as well the FOMC minutes.

Economic Calendar

Remain watchful and be wary but remember the trend. Trade well.

Thomas Hughes


New Plays

Healthcare Technology

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


NEW BULLISH Plays

Medidata Solutions - MDSO - close: 40.36 change: +1.04

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 27, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 147 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
MDSO is a healthcare information and services company. The stock has been an impressive performer this year with a series of new record highs. Yesterday MDSO produced a one-day bearish reversal pattern but there was no follow through today. I want to see some follow through on today's bounce before we initiate positions.

I am suggesting a trigger to open small bullish positions at $40.75. We'll use a stop loss at $38.90. Our multi-week target is $44.75.

Trigger @ 40.75

Suggested Position: buy MDSO stock @ (trigger)

Annotated chart:




In Play Updates and Reviews

TPX Rallies on M&A News

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
Shares of Tempur Pedic (TPX) outperformed the market today on news it was acquiring its rival Sealy (ZZ).

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 31.16 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Thursday proved to be a strong day for CLMT. The stock shot higher and hit $31.86 intraday before settling with a +2.0% gain. The stock is at new multi-year highs. I am raising our stop loss to $29.49.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

09/27/12 new stop loss @ 29.49
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30



Homeowners Choice, Inc. - HCII - close: 22.78 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 22.90
Target(s): 27.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 24, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 208 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
09/27/12: HCII produced a +1.2% gain but most of it was on the gap open higher. Shares traded sideways in a narrow range. If HCII doesn't start performing soon we'll probably drop it as a candidate. Currently we are waiting for a breakout higher. HCII could see a short squeeze.

Earlier Comments:
HCII could see a short squeeze if it can breakout again. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the very small 8.0 million share float.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $24.10. We'll use a stop loss at $22.90. Our multi-week target is $27.75.

Trigger @ 24.10

Suggested Position: buy HCII stock @ (trigger)



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 37.14 change: +0.63

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Hmm... CNC displayed relative strength today with a +1.7% gain. That is a bit troubling. It looks like shares might retest the $38 level soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.33 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 29.05
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: CNW continued to bounce with a +1.2% gain on Thursday. I cautioned readers that CNW was due for an oversold bounce. Look for resistance near $28.00 and near the $29.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.05
09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS - close: 37.85 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 40.15
Target(s): 35.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%

Entry on September 24 at $38.61
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: The combination of NUS' short-term oversold condition and a market-wide rally helped the stock outperform with a +2.2% bounce today. Look for resistance in the $39.50-40.00 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of investors who are bearish on the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 51.9 million share float. That does raise our risk of a short squeeze so you may want to play the options to limit your risk to the cost of your option. Our initial target is $35.25 but more aggressive traders could definitely aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for NUS is bearish with a $23.00 target.

current Position: short NUS stock @ $38.61

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (NUS1220v35) entry $1.32

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 40.15



Synaptics Inc. - SYNA - close: 24.39 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 26.55
Target(s): 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%

Entry on September 26 at $24.79
Listed on September 25, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 439 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: SYNA was not immune to the market's broad-based bounce today. We can look for broken support near $25.00 to be new overhead resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade because SYNA has already seen a big move down but today's break under support could signal another big leg down. We want to limit our risk and keep our position size small.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short SYNA stock @ $24.79

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $25 PUT (SYNA1220v25) Entry $1.15



Vistaprint N.V. - VPRT - close: 34.82 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 36.15
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%

Entry on September 27 at $34.60
Listed on September 26, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 572 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: It was a relatively quiet day for VPRT. The stock opened higher at $34.60 and closed with a +1.1% gain. The overall trend remains negative and I would still consider new bearish positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to consider using put options to limit their risk. I do consider a higher-risk trade because the most recent data listed short interest at 28.4% of the small 21.9 million share float. There is a risk of a short squeeze.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short VPRT stock @ $34.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (VPRT1220v35) Entry $2.00



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Tempur Pedic Intl. - TPX - close: 30.64 change: +3.86

Stop Loss: 30.05
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.8%

Entry on September 24 at $29.75
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Normally when one company buys another one on Wall Street the shares of the company being bought go up and shares of the acquirer go down. In this case shares of TPX soared on news it was acquiring its rival Sealy Corp. (ZZ) for $229 million. The offer is worth $2.20 a share for Sealy's stock. TPX is also assuming all of ZZ's debt so the total deal is worth $1.3 billion. Wall Street applauded the deal and shares of TPX gapped open higher at $30.87 and hit $32.99 before paring its gains.

The gap higher was above our stop loss at $30.05. The timing of this deal stinks. Our play was up +10%. Now we have an exit at -3.8%.

closed Position: short TPX stock @ $29.75 exit $30.87 (-3.8%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 PUT (TPX1220v30) Entry $2.10* exit $1.20 (-42.8%)

09/27/12 stopped out on gap open as traders react to M&A news
09/26/12 new stop loss @ 30.05, readers may want to take profits now with TPX down -10% from our entry and the option bid at $3.60
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 30.55
09/24/12 new stop loss @ 31.05
09/24/12 triggered at $29.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was open.

chart: