Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 12/7/2015

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Market Slips On Oil Prices

by Thomas Hughes

Click here to email Thomas Hughes
No follow through to Friday's job's driven rally; oil prices fall to new lows and the market slides.

Introduction

Friday's jobs number and revisions sparked a huge rally on Friday. This morning it looked as if there may be some follow through but plunging oil prices hit the oil sector and dragged the market lower. OPEC's lack of support for prices, as well as a de facto break-down of the cartel, sent Brent to 7 year lows, WTI crashing more than -6.0%, the oil sector falling by nearly -5% and the broad market down by nearly -1%.

Asian indices were largely unaffected by oil's decline as they closed before the slide began. The Nikkei gained nearly 1% while Chinese indices were flat to slightly positive; traders in both region cautious ahead of data due out later in the week. European indices were mostly higher despite the fall in oil prices. The DAX gained over 1.5% followed by a near 1.25% gain for the French CAC, both driven by ECB QE and US economic strength.

Market Statistics

Futures trading indicated a positive open during the earliest portion of the pre-market session but turned negative soon after 8AM. There was no sharp sell-off, just a mild -2 for SPX, but this level held until the open. At the open the indices began to fall, not hard or fast just a steady selling that carried them down to a morning low just over -1%. This low held for the day but was tested several times. Late afternoon saw the bulls stage a rally from support levels carrying them up off of their lows before the close of the day.

Economic Calendar

The Economy

Consumer credit levels for Q3 were released this morning. According to the Federal Reserve outstanding consumer credit fell -1% to 7.5%. On a month to month basis credit levels rose to 10% in the September, up 4.4% from August.

Moody's Survey Of Business Confidence declined by another full point this week, to 33.4 and a new low. This is the 13th week of decline since hitting a peak in late summer. According to Mark Zandi the decline isdriven by weak global economies and ongoing volatility in the financial markets. Outlook for current conditions has been hit the worst, led by businesses in North America. Prospects for the future are more optimistic. Despite the drop business sentiment remains high by historic standards.


Tomorrow only one economic release, the JOLTs report. JOLTs has been trending near record highs, a decline could indicate tightening labor market conditions. The quits rate will also be important, it has also been trending at high levels indicative of labor market confidence.

Wednesday is WholeSale Inventories, Thursday is weekly jobless claims and import/export prices. Friday is the heaviest of the week in terms of economic reports including PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories and Michigan Sentiment.

There are still one or two S&P 500 companies to report 3rd quarter earnings but focus has shifted to the 4th quarter earnings season. The estimated rate of growth for the 4th quarter has fallen again, by -0.1% to -4.3% and is expected to remain negative through the end of the season. Based on the four year average we can expect this to rise by roughly 4% for a final earnings growth near -0.5%. Energy is going to be the largest contributor to declining growth and is expected to post earnings decline of -65%. Ex-energy growth projections jump to 1.4%. Full year 2015 earnings growth is expected to be -0.5%, down from 1%-2% earlier in the year, with 2016 projections falling as well.

Full year 2016 estimates have risen from 7.8% to 8.1%. This is the first increase in full year estimates in nearly 2 months.

The Oil Index

Oil was the story of the day. Brent and WTI had their worst days in what may be years as support fled the market. Supply is high and demand is low, and OPEC did nothing about it, so there is little reason to get bullish on oil. WTI fell more than -6%, breaking through $40, $39 and $38 to settle near $37.50; Brent is a hairs breadth away from touching $40, their lowest levels since early 2009. Today's move could lead to further downside with possible targets as low as $30 for WTI, unless of course some sign of shrinking supply or increasing demand enters the market.

The oil sector got hit hard by plunging oil prices; Exxon, Chevron and the other top producers falling as much as -5%. The Oil Index fell -5% in a move that breaches support and looks set to move lower. Today's move also brings a possible H&S shoulders into play, with the early November rally as head. The indicators are pointing lower, in tandem with the move, and pointing lower so a move to long term support is very likely. Downside target is now 1,025 with a possible consolidation or test of resistance happening first. The market may take a day or more to digest new, low, oil prices, a time in which prices for both oil and the oil sector could experience increased volatility.


The Gold Index

Gold prices fell today as the dollar regained some lost ground, -1.25% or $13.00 . The dollar, it had a wild reaction to the ECB's new QE. The news was not quite as good as expected, sparked massive short covering in the euro and selling in the DXY, but did not change the fundamental picture. The ECB is still easing, the FOMC is still expected to raise rates, labor market remain steady/healthy, there is little sign of inflation and all putting gold under pressure. That pressure was seen today and is not expected to let up any time soon, new estimates put targets $100 lower and more. On the Fed front, Lockhart made comments this morning to the effect that conditions were right and the market was ready for a rate hike.

The gold miners of course did not perform well in the face of falling gold prices. The Gold Miners ETF fell -4.8%, reversing all of Friday's gains and dropping below the short term moving average. The indicators are bullish and could lead the ETF higher but I don't think so, not without a change in trend for gold. Momentum is peaking in the near term, indicative of resistance near the $14.75 level, and could easily lead to a retest of support. Stochastic is still moving higher but below the upper signal line, weak and softening. Support is near $13.00 with a possible break below should gold prices set a new low.


In The News, Story Stocks and Earnings

Chipotle is getting rocked by the e-coli scandal. The chain failed to contain the outbreak and it has now affected full year guidance. The company issued a warning over the weekend saying investors should expect a same store sales drop and rescinding their full year guidance. The flip-side is that several analysts have maintained their long term outlook with the belief full year 2016 targets will be met. The company's attitude and efforts to correct the issue have been cited as reasons to believe it will be able to heal it's image. Today the stock fell nearly -6% in the pre-market and then regained most of the loss during the open session.


GE announced it has terminated its proposed deal to sell part of its appliance unit to Electrolux. The deal was cut off by GE because of hurdles put forth by regulators citing anti-trust issues. GE will get a $175 million break-up fee the two had already agreed to and said the unit was operating well. GE will also seek other buyers. The stock barely reacted, falling -0.75% within a congestion band at the 6 year high.


Newel Rubbermaid and Jarden announced an intended merger late in the day. Both stocks jumped on the news, nearly 10% each. The businesses are about equal size, near $11 billion market cap, and would result in about $14 in annual sales.


The gun manufacturers did very well today, bucking the sell-off and hitting new highs in some cases. Smith & Wesson was one. Today's move is no doubt sparked by the Presidents call to disarm America, not going to happen, and carried it up over 8% and within 10% of the all time high. The company is reporting earnings later this week and has a history of positive upside surprise.


The Indices

The indices fell today but did not close at their lows. Today's declines were led by the Dow Jones Transportation Index which closed with a loss of -0.88%. The transports appear to be moving down to the lower limit of the recent trading range near 7,750. The indicators are consistent with such a move, both pointing to lower prices but neither showing much strength in the move. My first target may not hold, if broken next target is 7,500 and the August low.


The next largest decline was seen in the NASDAQ Composite which lost -0.79%. Today's move retreated from the Friday high to test support just above the short term moving average and the 5,100 level. The indicators are pointing lower so support could be tested again, possibly as low as 5,050 or 5,000, along the long term trend line. While bearish, the indicators are weakly so and consistent with consolidation/pull-back within a greater up trend.


The next largest decline was the -0.7% drop posted by the S&P 500. The broad market index made lows a little more than -1% for the day but closed up off of those lows, and above the short term 30 day moving average. Today's action appears to be further consolidation within the 2,100 – 2,200 range, a wind that is likely focused on next week's FOMC meeting. The indicators are pointing lower in the near term, suggesting support could be tested again, but consistent with a rising market in the short to long term. Support is currently at the moving average but could move down to 2,050 or 2,025 and the up trend line.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average made the smallest decline in today's session, only -0.66%. The blue chips tested support along moving average and found at least near term support. The index was able to bounce and move up off of today's lows but the indicators remain mixed. Both MACD and stochastic are indicating lower prices in the near term, suggesting a further test of support, but are also both consistent with support at/near current levels in the short to long term.


The markets have been throwing off mixed signals the last couple of weeks and months. There have been a lot of causes; China, Russia, ISIS, oil, negative earnings growth, FOMC outlook and mixed economic data to say the least. All this news, fear and reaction has caused the market to wind up and it looks like once again it is focused on the FOMC, which happens to be options expiration week as well.

Underneath it all the long term economic trends and earnings outlook has remained positive so I remain bullish. The FOMC may spook the market with a rate hike next week, it's really hard to say what is going to happen or if they even will raise rates but any dips remain buying opportunities. Lockhart seems to think the market is prepared for a hike and so do I. If so it could spark a rally and that is the direction I am leaning. After all, it will be just the first rate hike of a cycle, not the last, and indicative of economic health.

Until then, remember the trend!

Thomas Hughes

Annual End of Year Subscription Special

It is that time of year again when we offer the best prices of the year on a package of our top newsletters. If you have been a subscriber for several years you know this is the best price and best deal of the year.

Please follow the link below to see for yourself the EOY subscription special for 2016. You will not be disappointed!


New Plays

Warm Weather Worries

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


NEW BEARISH Plays

Columbia Sportswear - COLM - close: 45.39 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 48.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on December -- at $---.--
Listed on December 07, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in February
Option traders exit prior to January expiration
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Trade Description:
The pace of consumer spending has been disappointing this year. Overall retail sales have been slow. Plus the warmer weather has been a major set back for outerwear and winter clothing a lot of retailers are dealing with high levels of unsold inventory.

COLM is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company "Columbia Sportswear Company has assembled a portfolio of brands that connect active people with their passions, making it a leader in the global active lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment industry. Founded in 1938 in Portland, Oregon, the company's brands are today sold in approximately 100 countries. In addition to the Columbia® brand, Columbia Sportswear Company also owns the Sorel®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, Montrail® and OutDry® brands."

Bullish COLM investors have got to be frustrated. It's true that a lot of retailers have struggled. Yet COLM has had pretty good results this year. Their Q4 report from 2014, announced in February, was above estimates and management raised guidance. The stock soared on the bullish report and guidance.

Their Q1 results, on April 30th, beat estimates and guidance was in-line. Then on July 30th, COLM reported their Q2 results. Again earnings and revenues beat estimates by a wide margin. Management raised their guidance again. Shares of COLM exploded to new all-time highs and almost hit $75.00. That has proven to be the peak.

Since COLM's report in July the market has begun selling COLM's stock. The up trend reversed with COLM sinking under a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows. They reported their Q3 results on October 29th. They beat estimates again and raised their full-year guidance. The stock gapped higher nearly $10 the next day only to reverse lower.

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) really shook up the retail industry when they reported their earnings on November 17th. DKS missed Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom line and DKS guided lower. The company blamed warm fall weather on their disappointing results. DKS also warned that Q4 would likely be very promotional, which would hurt margins. A few days later Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded COLM from "buy" to "neutral" over similar worries.

Technically COLM is in a bear market. The point & figure chart is forecasting at $36.00 target. COLM bounced off the $45.00 level in November. That bounce has failed. Now shares are about to breakdown under key support at $45.00. We are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $44.75.

Trigger @ $44.75

- Suggested Positions -

Short COLM stock @ $44.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the JAN $45 PUT (COLM160115P45) current ask $2.75
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart:



In Play Updates and Reviews

Stocks Start The Week On A Sour Note

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
Crude oil's plunge to new seven-year lows was the main story on Wall Street today. Naturally energy stocks sank. A sell-off in biotech stocks didn't help either and the small cap Russell 2000 index underperformed.

We closed the BBBY trade this morning.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 63.75 change: -1.54

Stop Loss: 61.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -2.3%
Entry on December 04 at $65.25
Listed on December 01, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/07/15: I am suggesting caution on our ADSK trade. The action today was bearish. Shares not only underperformed the broader market with a -2.3% decline but ADSK also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern today. On the plus side ADSK did find short-term support near its early November highs and its simple 10-dma.

No new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss.

Trade Description: December 1, 2015:
It has been a bumpy ride for ADSK investors this year. The company is in the middle of a transition from selling perpetual software licenses to selling subscriptions. It's a move that mirrors larger rival Adobe Systems's (ADBE) transition to a subscription model.

If you're not familiar with ADSK they are in the technology sector. According to the company, "Autodesk, Inc., is a leader in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software. Since its introduction of AutoCAD software in 1982, Autodesk continues to develop the broadest portfolio of 3D software for global markets. Customers across the manufacturing, architecture, building, construction, and media and entertainment industries-including the last 19 Academy Award winners for Best Visual Effects-use Autodesk software to design, visualize, and simulate their ideas before they're ever built or created. From blockbuster visual effects and buildings that create their own energy, to electric cars and the batteries that power them, the work of our 3D software customers is everywhere you look."

Year to date the stock is up +7.7%. Yet ADSK is up +53% from its October 2015 low. What's driving the rally? It's certainly not revenue growth. The company tends to beat Wall Street's bottom line earnings estimates but revenues have been soft. The company has lowered their guidance multiple times this year.

Their most recent earnings report was November 19th. ADSK reported Q3 results of $0.14 a share. That beat expectations. Revenues fell -2.9% to $600 million. Management lowered their Q4 guidance. Yet they raised their 2016 outlook for the first time in several months. The improved 2016 outlook certainly helped. There was a brief sell-off in the stock (Nov. 20th) but ADSK quickly recovered.

One of the main reasons ADSK has performed so well lately is the market's hope that two major activists investors will do something to unlock more value. Eminence Capital owns a 5.8% stake in ADSK. Sachem Head Capital recently disclosed at 5.7% stake. The two activist funds have teamed up together (a combined stake of 11.5%). Expectations that these activists will drive change in ADSK has fueled a significant rally.

Today shares of ADSK have rallied toward major resistance at the $65.00 level. A breakout here would reaffirm that the bullish trend is still intact. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $103. We want to hop on board if ADSK can break through the $65.00 level. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $65.25. The stock can be somewhat volatile so I am suggesting small positions to limit risk.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long ADSK stock @ $65.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JAN $67.5 CALL (ADSK160115C67.5) entry $1.54

12/04/15 triggered @ $65.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Activision Blizzard, Inc. - ATVI - close: 38.69 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 36.40
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +1.4%
Entry on December 04 at $38.15
Listed on December 03, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to ATVI earnings in early February
Average Daily Volume = 10.0 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/07/15: ATVI held up reasonably well today. Shares only lost -0.5% after traders started to buy the dip midday. Broken resistance near $38.00 should be new support. Nimble traders could use a dip near $38 as another bullish entry point.

Trade Description: December 3, 2015
The movie industry gets a lot of press but the video game market is much bigger. One of the biggest companies in this arena is ATVI and they're about to get a lot bigger.

ATVI is part of the technology sector. According to the company, "Activision Blizzard, Inc. is the largest and most profitable western interactive entertainment publishing company. It develops and publishes some of the most successful and beloved entertainment franchises in any medium, including Call of Duty, Call of Duty Online, Destiny, Skylanders, World of Warcraft, StarCraft®, Diablo®, and Hearthstone. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California, it maintains operations throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia. Activision Blizzard develops and publishes games on all leading interactive platforms and its games are available in most countries around the world."

Revenues for a video game company like ATVI tend to be lumpy based on new releases throughout the year. The company has managed to beat Wall Street's estimates on the bottom line the last four quarters in a row.

On November 2nd, 2015, ATVI announced they had signed a $5.9 billion deal to buy King Digital Entertainment (symbol: KING). This deal should give ATVI a huge boost in its mobile gaming footprint and could add a significant chunk to earnings in 2016. A Wedbush analyst believes the mobile gaming market is about $24 billion and growing at up to 20% a year for the next five years. They see the KING acquisition as a great fit for ATVI.

Several days later, on November 11th, ATVI announced that their new Call of Duty: Black Ops III game was the biggest entertainment launch of the year with a three-day opening weekend sales above $550 million. That surpassed any other entertainment launch of the year including books, music, or movies (surpassing the movie Jurassic World's massive opening weekend).

Recently a Cowen analyst said videogames are going to be another hot seller this year and they listed ATVI as their top pick in the industry. Multiple analysts have upgraded their stock price on ATVI following the KING acquisition news. Shares of ATVI have shown significant strength this year. The stock is trading at all-time highs and up +86% year to date. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $49.50 target.

Today's widespread market decline sparked some profit taking in ATVI. The stock found support at its rising 10-dma. If shares bounce from here we want to jump on board. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $38.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long ATVI stock @ $38.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long FEB $40 CALL (ATVI160219C40) entry $1.47

12/04/15 triggered @ $38.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 41.41 change: -1.03

Stop Loss: 40.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.8%
Entry on November 25 at $43.05
Listed on November 18, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: Ouch! FMC has virtually erased its two-day bounce with a -2.4% drop today. Shares fell toward short-term support near $41.00 before starting to bounce this afternoon.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 18, 2015:
Shares of FMC have been struggling for a couple of years. The stock peaked near $83.00 in early 2014. Since then FMC traded at a low near $32.60 in late September this year. FMC's performance over the last couple of months looks like the stock has bottomed.

FMC is in the basic materials sector. According to the company, "For more than a century, FMC Corporation has served the global agricultural, industrial and consumer markets with innovative solutions, applications and quality products. FMC acquired Cheminova in April of 2015. Pro forma revenue totaled approximately $4.5 billion in 2014. FMC employs approximately 6,600 people throughout the world and operates its businesses in three segments: FMC Agricultural Solutions, FMC Health and Nutrition and FMC Lithium."

The earnings picture has been disappointing over the last several months. The company reported its Q1 results on May 5th and missed on both the top and bottom line. Management lowered their guidance. FMC's Q2 results were not much better with the company missing analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line again.

On October 12th FMC warned that Q3 earnings would take a hit due to currency weakness in Brazil. Here's an excerpt from the company's press release, "FMC Corporation (FMC) today announced that, due to the recent rapid devaluation of the Brazilian real, the company is reducing third-quarter and full-year outlook for its Agricultural Solutions segment... A rapid devaluation of the Brazilian real, which depreciated over 50 percent versus the U.S. dollar in the past 12 months, and over 25 percent versus the U.S. dollar during the third quarter alone, has created significant headwinds that will continue to impact Agricultural Solutions segment earnings in the second half of 2015."

Shares of FMC plunged on this news from $37.50 to $35.00 but investors bought the dip. Earnings came out on October 28th. After warning in mid October their final results were above expectations. Q3 earnings fell from 72 cents a year ago to 42 cents but that beat the 38-cent estimate. Revenues were up +1.4% to $830.7 million, which was also above estimates. FMC rallied on this report.

Investors bought the recent dip (last week) and since then FMC has been showing relative strength. The rally has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal on FMC's point & figure chart, which now projects a $57.00 target. The relative strength continued today with a +2.6% gain and a breakout past short-term resistance at $43.00 and its 100-dma.

It's starting to look like all the bad news has been priced in and investors are betting on a turnaround in the company. The stock's recent rallies have been fueled with strong volume, which is normally a good sign. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $43.55. (Note: FMC is up five days in a row. Patient investors may want to wait for a dip before initiating new positions instead of our trigger at $43.55).

- Suggested Positions -

Long FMC stock @ $43.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JAN $45 CALL (FMC160115C45) entry $1.20

12/05/15 new stop @ 40.85
11/25/15 triggered @ $43.05
11/24/15 adjust entry trigger from $43.55 to $43.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Microsoft Inc. - MSFT - close: 55.81 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 53.20
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +2.2%
Entry on November 04 at $54.60
Listed on November 03, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks.
Average Daily Volume = 35.4 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: MSFT was relatively resistant to the market's decline today. Shares found support in the $55.30 area and bounced there multiple times before starting to rally this afternoon. If the market cooperates I would expect MSFT to breakout to new highs soon.

More conservative investors might want to raise their stop loss here. No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 3, 2015:
MSFT is more than just a software company. MSFT is in the technology sector. It is considered part of the business software industry. According to the company, "Microsoft is the leading platform and productivity company for the mobile-first, cloud-first world, and its mission is to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more."

The company is run under three segments. They have their productivity and business processes segment. This includes commercial office software, personal office software, and more. One of their fastest growing segments is MSFT's Intelligent Cloud business, which includes their server software and enterprise services. Then they have their "More Personal Computing" segment. This includes their Windows operating software, MSN display advertising, Windows phones, smartphones, tablets, PC accessories, Internet search, and their Xbox platform.

The stock has been dead money for almost a year. MSFT peaked near round-number resistance at $50.00 back in November 2014. Shares channeled sideways between support at $40 and resistance at $50 for months. That changed last month.

MSFT reported its 2016 Q1 results on October 22nd. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.59 a share on revenues of $21.04 billion. MSFT beat both estimates with a profit of $0.67 a share. Revenues came in at $21.66 billion. Their Intelligent Cloud segment saw sales rise +8% but it was actually +14% on a constant currency basis.

Shares of MSFT soared the next day with a surge to 15-year highs. The big rally is based on investors' belief that MSFT and its relatively new management is successfully transitioning away from declining PC sales and moving quickly towards the cloud (and mobile).

Normally I would hesitate to buy a stock like MSFT after a big gap higher. Too often stocks tend to fill the gap. However, shares of MSFT have been able to levitate sideways in the $52.50-54.50 zone as traders keep buying the dips. Odds are growing we could see MSFT rally toward its all-time highs near $60.00 a share from December 1999. The big gain in October produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart, which is now forecasting a long-term target of $82.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $54.60.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MSFT stock @ $54.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2016 JAN $55 CALL (MSFT160115C55) entry $1.54

12/01/15 new stop @ $53.20
11/04/15 triggered @ $54.60
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Netgear Inc. - NTGR - close: 45.24 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 43.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -0.7%
Entry on December 04 at $45.55
Listed on December 02, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 468 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: NTGR tagged new highs intraday before eventually giving in to the market's widespread decline on Monday. Traders may want to see some follow through higher before considering new bullish positions.

Trade Description: December 2, 2015:
Shares of NTGR have delivered an impressive reversal in the last couple of months. Analysts believe the company is poised to carve out its niche of the Internet of Things (IoT). Meanwhile new products have helped NTGR's retail business soar.

NTGR is in the technology sector. According to the company, "NETGEAR is a global networking company that delivers innovative products to consumers, businesses and service providers. The Company's products are built on a variety of proven technologies such as wireless, Ethernet and powerline, with a focus on reliability and ease-of-use. The product line consists of wired and wireless devices that enable networking, broadband access and network connectivity. These products are available in multiple configurations to address the needs of the end-users in each geographic region in which the Company's products are sold. NETGEAR products are sold in approximately 39,000 retail locations around the globe, and through approximately 31,000 value-added resellers. The company's headquarters are in San Jose, Calif., with additional offices in approximately 25 countries."

Shares of NTGR are up +57% from their 2015 lows near $28.50. Most of that was thanks to a +40% surge in the month of October. That was due to a strong Q3 earnings report.

Wall Street was expecting Q3 earnings of $0.51 a share on revenues of $322 million. NTGR beat estimates on both counts. Earnings were $0.67 a share. Revenues fell -3.2% but came in at $342 million. Their operating margin surged from 7.1% in Q2 to 10.3% in Q3.

Patrick Lo, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of NETGEAR, commented, "Our financial results for the third quarter of 2015 exceeded expectations, driven by strength in North America and a robust back-to-school season. Our revenue in Q3 was further augmented by higher than normal demand from our service provider customers. The Retail Business Unit had an all-time record quarter in sales, powered by our fast-growing Arlo and Nighthawk product lines. The success of both product lines continued to drive up average selling prices for NETGEAR retail products, and led to a healthy 24.9% year-over-year increase in revenue for the Retail Business Unit for Q3. We were also pleased with the sequential growth shown by the Commercial Business Unit, which was led by our switching products. With many new products in the pipeline, we see the momentum of our switching products rolling into the coming quarters. Meanwhile, we continued to closely manage the Service Provider Business Unit with a focus on profitability."

Wall Street analysts have been raising estimates since NTGR's Q3 report. The big move in the stock has generated a huge buy signal on the point & figure chart, which is now forecasting a long-term target at $77. The last few weeks have seen NTGR consolidate sideways under the $45.00 area. This is significant since $45.00 (actually $45.31) was the all-time high from July 2011. A breakout past resistance at $45.00 is in progress. Today's intraday high was $45.38. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $45.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long NTGR stock @ $45.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JAN $45 CALL (NTGR160115C45) entry $1.80

12/04/15 triggered @ $45.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Paychex, Inc. - PAYX - close: 53.51 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 52.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +0.7%
Entry on November 11 at $53.15
Listed on November 09, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on December 22nd
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: PAYX managed to trim its loss today down to 20 cents. Shares are still trading below what could be short-term resistance at $54.00 and its 10-dma.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 9, 2015:
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the nonfarm payroll (jobs) report for October showed a gain of +271,000. That was way above expectations. The separate household survey showed a gain of +320,000 jobs. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.0%, the lowest reading since early 2008. Many believe that the U.S. has now reached full employment. Do you know what that means? It means more Americans working. That means more paychecks to be delivered and more HR services to be handled.

PAYX is in the services sector. According to the company, "Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is a leading provider of integrated human capital management solutions for payroll, HR, retirement, and insurance services. By combining its innovative software-as-a-service technology and mobility platform with dedicated, personal service, Paychex empowers small- and medium-sized business owners to focus on the growth and management of their business. Backed by more than 40 years of industry expertise, Paychex serves approximately 590,000 payroll clients across 100 locations and pays one out of every 15 American private sector employees."

PAYX earnings have been slowly and consistently creeping higher. Revenues have been rising about 8% the last couple of quarters. This company's most recent earnings report was September 30th. They beat estimates on both the top and bottom line, which helped fuel another rally in the stock.

PAYX management has been very consistent about paying a dividend. PAYX now sports a dividend yield of 3.7%. That could draw more and more income investors looking for a safe company to buy.

A recent article on Forbes.com, by Brett Owens, noted that "demand for payroll outsourcing (60% of Paychex's latest quarterly revenue) will grow at a 3.9% compound annual rate between 2013 and 2018. HR outsourcing (40% of revenue) is on a stronger tear, with a projected 12.3% yearly gain in the same period" (source)

We like PAYX's relative strength. Shares are up +14.2% year to date. That compares to a +1.0% gain in the S&P 500 and a +7.6% rally in the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ composite is up +18% from its August low but PAYX is up +26.7%. The rally in PAYX has produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart, which is also forecasting a long-term target at $72.00.

On Friday PAYX found short-term support near $53.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $53.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long PAYX stock @ $53.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JAN $55 CALL (PAYX160115C55) entry $0.80

11/11/15 triggered @ $53.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Qorvo, Inc. - QRVO - close: 57.63 change: -1.91

Stop Loss: 55.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on December -- at $---.--
Listed on December 05, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late January
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/07/15: QRVO shot lower at the open and ended the day on short-term technical support at its rising 10-dma. Today's show of relative weakness (-3.2%) does not bode well for QRVO's up trend. If shares continue lower tomorrow we may drop it as a candidate. Currently we want to see a breakout past resistance at $60.00. Our suggested entry point is $60.25.

Trade Description: December 5, 2015:
2015 has been a bumpy ride for QRVO investors. Fortunately the stock appears to have found a bottom over the last few months. Right now semiconductors are in rally mode. We could see QRVO break through key resistance soon.

QRVO is in the technology sector. According to the company, "Qorvo is a leading provider of core technologies and RF solutions for mobile, infrastructure and aerospace/defense applications. Qorvo was formed following the merger of RFMD and TriQuint, and has more than 7,000 global employees dedicated to delivering solutions for everything that connects the world. Qorvo has the industry's broadest portfolio of products and core technologies; world-class ISO9001-, ISO 14001- and ISO/TS 16949-certified manufacturing facilities; and is a DoD-accredited 'Trusted Source' (Category 1A) for GaAs, GaN and BAW products and services."

The company has beaten Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line the last three quarters in a row. Their most recent report was November 5th. QRVO announced their Q3 results with earnings of $1.22 a share. That was 11 cents above estimates. Revenues were up +11.6% to $707 million, above the $699 million estimate. The quarter was driven by a +19% jump in their mobile products segment.

QRVO's President and CEO Bob Bruggeworth commented on the quarter, "The Qorvo team delivered a solid September quarter, with quarterly revenue increasing 12% year-over-year, led by strong 19% year-over-year growth in Mobile Products. Design activity during the quarter was particularly robust, as we secured multiple opportunities to expand content in the marquee smartphones launching in calendar 2016 and 2017 and positioned IDP to accelerate growth across its target markets." Steve Buhaly, chief financial officer, said, "In the nine months since Qorvo's formation, revenue has grown 25% from the same period in the prior year while non-GAAP operating income has nearly doubled. We're proud of this performance and are excited about our opportunities in the coming year."

QRVO management raised their Q4 EPS guidance above analysts' estimates but their revenue guidance was below Wall Street expectations. They also announced a one-year $1 billion stock buyback program, which suggest that management believes their stock is too cheap. Shares soared to multi-week highs the next day (Nov. 6th).

Previously there was some concern about Apple's iPhone sales and their impact on QRVO since QRVO is a major component supplier to Apple. Wall Street has been worried that Apple's iPhone sales would slow down, which helped pressure QRVO's stock lower. The company's generally optimistic guidance for Q4 helped soothe these fears. Investors should be aware that QRVO's stock could be sensitive to any news regarding AAPL's iPhone sales.

Technically QRVO's stock is in a new bull market with a rally from its lows near $42. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $67 target. At the moment QRVO is hovering just below round-number resistance at $60.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $60.25. I will point out that prior support from early 2015 in the $63.00 area is potential resistance but we are expecting a rally toward the $70 area.

Trigger @ $60.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy QRVO stock @ $60.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the FEB $65 CALL (QRVO160219C65)

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


U.S. Silica Holdings - SLCA - close: 19.85 change: -1.17

Stop Loss: 19.20
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -7.9%
Entry on December 01 at $21.55
Listed on November 30, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
(option traders exit prior to January expiration)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: Shares of SLCA received a new "buy" rating this morning. Unfortunately this new analyst endorsement didn't help. Crude oil plunged to new seven-year lows and this crushed the energy stocks. Oil service stocks fared worse. SLCA lost -5.5%. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss. Today's close under $20.00 is worrisome. No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 30, 2015:
The crash in oil prices to six year lows has crushed the oil and gas industry. It has been especially hard on some of the oil service stocks. SLCA is in that group but the company and the stock is showing signs of a bottom.

SLCA is in the basic materials sector. According to the company, "U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc., a member of the Russell 2000, is a leading producer of commercial silica used in the oil and gas industry, and in a wide range of industrial applications. Over its 115-year history, U.S. Silica has developed core competencies in mining, processing, logistics and materials science that enable it to produce and cost-effectively deliver over 260 products to customers across our end markets. The Company currently operates nine industrial sand production plants and eight oil and gas sand production plants. The Company is headquartered in Frederick, Maryland and also has offices located in Chicago, Illinois, Houston, Texas and Shanghai, China."

What's great about SLCA versus many of its peers is SLCA's diversity. They do sell a lot of fracking sand to the oil and gas industry but they also sell to a wide range of industries. The company also has one of the strongest balance sheets among its peers.

Year over year results have been rough. SLCA last reported earnings on October 27th. Q3 results were a loss of ($0.03) a share. That was a penny worse than expected. Revenues were down -35% to $155.4 million, which was just below the $155.7 million estimate.

It looks like an ugly earnings report and yet shares of SLCA soared more than 20% the next day. The company said their overall tons of sand sold was down -12% from a year ago but up +16% from the second quarter. Furthermore SLCA management said they were selling more sand to the oil and gas business and essentially stealing market share from competitors.

The outlook for crude oil is still muddy but it looks like shares of SLCA have found a bottom. The last few weeks have developed a trend of higher lows. The point & figure chart is still bearish but a rally above $22.00 would generate a new triple-top breakout buy signal. Plus a breakout past resistance could see some serious short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 37% of the 49.4 million share float.

SLCA is going to present at the Cowen & Co. Energy Conference on December 1st and again at the Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on December 9th. If investors like what they hear these events could be a catalyst to spark the next leg higher.

Currently shares of SLCA appear to have short-term resistance in the $21.40 area. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $21.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SLCA stock @ $21.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JAN $22.50 CALL (SLCA160115C22.5) current ask $1.65

12/07/15 Oil dropped to 7-year lows and pushed energy-related stocks sharply lower.
12/01/15 triggered @ $21.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Total System Services, Inc. - TSS - close: 55.84 change: -0.39

Stop Loss: 54.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +1.3%
Entry on November 21 at $55.15
Listed on November 19, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: TSS tried to rally this morning but failed near short-term resistance in the $56.50 area.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 19, 2015:
TSS must be doing something right. Earnings and revenues have grown every quarter for the last four quarters. The stock has shown significant relative strength with TSS up +60% year to date.

TSS is part of the financial sector. According to the company, "As one of the world's largest payment solutions and services companies, TSYS® believes payments should revolve around people, not the other way around. Since we got our start in the payments space more than 30 years ago, we have evolved from a supporting role servicing several hundred bank card issuers and bank acquirers to directly touching hundreds of thousands of merchants and millions of consumers.

TSYS is a global, publicly traded company with operations in more than 80 countries, including many of the world's most high-growth emerging markets. We provide electronic payment services to financial institutions and companies around the globe with a broad range of issuing and acquiring payment technologies, including consumer, credit, debit, healthcare, loyalty, prepaid, chip and mobile payments."

As I mentioned earlier the earnings picture has been very healthy. TSS has beaten Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimate the last four quarters in a row. Earlier in the year they announced a 20 million share stock buyback. Plus management has raised guidance the last two quarters in a row.

TSS' most recent earnings report was October 27th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $0.59 a share on revenues of $668 million. TSS announced that earnings were up +40% from a year ago to $0.78 a share. Revenues were up +15% to $708 million. The company management said, "we are raising our guidance range for revenues before reimbursables to 12-13%, up from the previous range of 10-12%, and our adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance range to 24-26%, up from the previous range of 15-17%."

You can see how the stock surged the next day on its strong results and bullish outlook. Since then shares of TSS have been consolidating sideways but it looks like that consolidation is almost over. Shares have rallied back toward round-number resistance at $55.00. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $65.00 target. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $55.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long TSS stock @ $55.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long FEB $55 CALL (TSS160219C55) entry $2.60

12/01/15 new stop @ 54.85
11/20/15 triggered @ $55.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Yelp Inc. - YELP - close: 30.04 change: -0.41

Stop Loss: 28.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.3%
Entry on November 18 at $27.75
Listed on November 17, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: YELP spent Monday's session churning sideways on either side of the $30 level. Shares ended the session with a loss (-1.3%) but I would not panic yet. It could have been worse. YELP has short-term support near $29.20.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: November 17, 2015:
It has been a rough ride for YELP investors. The stock is down -50% year to date and off -72% from its all-time highs set in 2014. Yet the action lately is starting to look like all the bad news is priced in.

YELP is considered part of the technology sector. According to the company, "Yelp Inc. (http://www.yelp.com) connects people with great local businesses. Yelp was founded in San Francisco in July 2004. Since then, Yelp communities have taken hold in major metros across 31 countries. Approximately 83 million unique visitors visited Yelp via their mobile device1, including approximately 18 million unique devices accessing the Yelp app2, and approximately 79 million unique visitors visited Yelp via a desktop computer3 on a monthly average basis during the second quarter of 2015. By the end of the same quarter, Yelpers had written approximately 83 million rich, local reviews, making Yelp the leading local guide for real word-of-mouth on everything from boutiques and mechanics to restaurants and dentists."

The earnings picture has struggled this year. YELP's Q1 and Q2 reports both missed analysts' estimates. YELP also guided lower each time. Then there was news in July that YELP had given up on trying to sell itself because they couldn't find a buyer.

The revenue picture improved in the third quarter. YELP reported its Q3 results on October 28th. Earnings of $0.03 a share missed estimates of $0.06. Yet revenues were up +40% to $143.6 million, which was better than expected. Management then raised their 2015 guidance.

On November 13th shares of YELP received a big upgrade from RBC Capital Markets who raised their outlook to "outperform" and upped their price target from $34 to $42. Meanwhile recent news that InterActiveCorp (IACI) had offered to buy Angie's List (ANGI) might restart the M&A speculation on YELP since ANGI and YELP are in similar businesses.

Technically shares of YELP definitely appear to have formed a bottom over the last three months. The rally from its October lows has generated a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting a long-term target of $37.00. Right now YELP is flirting with a breakout past its early August peak. A breakout could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the 60.8 million share float.

We are listing YELP as an aggressive, higher-risk bullish trade. The stock can be volatile so readers may want to limit their position size. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $27.75.

*small positions to limit risk*- Suggested Positions -

Long YELP stock @ $27.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2016 JAN $30 CALL (YELP160115C30) entry $1.47

12/05/15 new stop @ 28.85
11/21/15 new stop @ 27.90
11/18/15 triggered @ $27.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates

Leucadia National Corp. - LUK - close: 17.53 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 18.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +1.0%
Entry on November 30 at $17.70
Listed on November 28, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: It looks like last week's attempt at an oversold bounce in LUK has failed. Shares accelerated lower again today with the stock falling -1.5% and closing at new multi-year lows. Readers can use today's drop as a new entry point.

Trade Description: November 28, 2015:
Investors appear to have soured on shares of LUK. The stock is down -20% year to date but it's off -29% from its July 2015 highs. LUK just ended the week at new five-year lows.

LUK is considered part of the financial sector. One of their biggest businesses is their Jefferies Group investment brokerage. Jefferies is only one in a long list of companies that LUK owns. You could argue LUK is more of a holding company or a conglomerate and a very diverse one at that.

Here's a list of some of LUK's businesses:
Berkadia, a full-service mortgage bank
FXCM, an online foreign exchange trading platform (NYSE:FXCM)
HomeFed, a real estate developer (65% owned by LUK)
Foursight Capital, an Auto loan originator and servicer
Leucadia Asset Management, a diversified alternative asset management platform
Folger Hill, a multi-manager discretionary long/short equity hedge fund platform
Topwater Capital, a highly-scalable multi-manager and multi-strategy liquid securities fund
Jefferies, a leading, client-focused global investment banking firm
Jefferies LoanCore, a joint venture between Jefferies and GIC Private Ltd (f.k.a. Government of Singapore Investment Corporation), is a finance company focused on originating and securitizing commercial mortgage loans
National Beef, a beef processing company that processes ~3 million fed cattle per year representing ~12.5% market share
HRG Group, a diversifed holiday company (NYSE: HRG) that operates in four business segments: consumer products - Spectrum Brands (NYSE: SPB, ~58% ownership); insurance - Fidelity & Guaranty Life (NYSE: FGL, ~81% ownership (1)); FrontStreet Re (100% ownership); Energy - Compass Production (~100% ownership); Asset Management (de minimis net book value).
Garcadia, 26 auto dealerships
Vitesse Energy
Juneau Energy
Linkem, a fixed wireless broadband internet provider in Italy
Conwed, a leading manufacturer of extruded, oriented and knitted plastic netting
Idaho Timber
Golden Queen (gold and silver mine)
(more details about LUK company .pdf
The earnings picture for LUK has taken a drastic turn for the worse. Their Q1 report, announced March 17th, showed earnings of $11.7 million versus $112 million a year ago. Q1 revenues were down -34%. LUK delivered similar results with their Q2 earnings, announced August 5th. Earnings per share were $0.11 compared to $1.12 a year ago. Revenues were flat at $2.84 billion. Their most recent earnings report was November 5th, 2015. LUK reported their Q3 results, which was a loss of ($0.47) a share versus a profit of $0.14 a year ago. Revenues plunged -21% to $2.36 billion. You can see why investors might be selling the stock.

Management has been trying to take advantage of their low stock price with an aggressive stock buyback program but it's not making much difference. Technically shares of LUK are in a bear market and showing significant relative weakness.

The point & figure chart is very bearish and forecasting an $11.00 target. The last few days LUK has been trying to hold short-term support near $18.00 but that appears to have failed. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $17.70.

- Suggested Positions -

Short LUK stock @ $17.70

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $18 PUT (LUK160318P18) entry $1.20

11/30/15 triggered @ $17.70
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


iPath S&P500 VIX Futures ETN - VXX - close: 18.65 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: None, no stop at this time.
Target(s): $16.65
Current Gain/Loss: +14.5%
2nd position Gain/Loss: +35.7%
Entry on August 25 at $21.82
2nd position: September 2nd at $29.01
Listed on August 24, 2015
Time Frame: to be determined
Average Daily Volume = 50 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: Another widespread market decline has fueled another bounce in volatility. The VIX only rose +6.9%. The VXX gained a minor +2.3%.

Currently our exit target is $16.65.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: August 24, 2015
The U.S. stock market's sell-off in the last three days has been extreme. Most of the major indices have collapsed into correction territory (-10% from their highs). The volatile moves in the market have investors panicking for protection. This drives up demand for put options and this fuels a rally in the CBOE volatility index (the VIX).

You can see on this long-term weekly chart that the VIX spiked up to levels not seen since the 2008 bear market during the financial crisis. Moves like this do not happen very often. The VIX rarely stays this high very long.

(see VIX chart from the August 24th play description)

How do we trade the VIX? One way is the VXX, which is an ETN but trades like a stock.

Here is an explanation from the product website:

The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures® ETNs (the "ETNs") are designed to provide exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Index Total Return (the "Index"). The ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and have no principal protection. The ETNs are unsecured debt obligations of the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, and are not, either directly or indirectly, an obligation of or guaranteed by any third party. Any payment to be made on the ETNs, including any payment at maturity or upon redemption, depends on the ability of Barclays Bank PLC to satisfy its obligations as they come due. An investment in the ETNs involves significant risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Index is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® (the "VIX Index") futures. The Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects market participants' views of the future direction of the VIX index at the time of expiration of the VIX futures contracts comprising the Index. Owning the ETNs is not the same as owning interests in the index components included in the Index or a security directly linked to the performance of the Index.

I encourage readers to check out a long-term chart of the VXX. This thing has been a consistent loser. One market pundit said the VXX is where money goes to die - if you're buying it. We do not want to buy it. We want to short it. Shorting rallies seems to be a winning strategy on the VXX with a constant trend of lower highs.

Today the VXX spiked up to four-month highs near $28.00 before fading. We are suggesting bearish positions at the opening bell tomorrow. The market volatility is probably not done yet so we are not listing a stop loss yet. Our time frame is two or three weeks (or less).

- Suggested Positions -

Short the VXX @ $21.82

Sept. 2nd - 2nd position (Double Down On The September 1st Spike)

Short the VXX @ $29.01

11/07/15 adjust exit target to $16.65
11/02/15 adjust exit target to $16.50
10/19/15 add an exit target at $16.25
10/15/15 planned exit for the October puts
10/14/15 if you own the options, prepare to exit tomorrow at the close
09/02/15 2nd position begins. VXX gapped down at $29.01
09/01/15 Double down on this trade with the VXX's spike to 6-month highs
08/25/15 trade begins. VXX gaps down at $21.82
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. - BBBY - close: 54.32 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 56.15
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.9%
Entry on November 24 at $52.35
Listed on November 23, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in January
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/07/15: BBBY was not cooperating. In the weekend newsletter we decided to exit this trade on Monday morning. BBBY opened at $54.41 and spent the session drifting sideways inside a narrow range.

- Suggested Positions -

Short BBBY stock @ $52.35 exit $54.41 (-3.9%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

JAN $50 PUT (BBBY160115P50) entry $1.68 exit $0.82 (-51.2%)

12/07/15 planned exit this morning
12/05/15 prepare to exit on Monday morning
11/24/15 triggered @ $52.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: