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Bullish Play Updates

Arkansas Best - ABFS - close: 41.77 chg: +0.35 stop: 40.75

ABFS is mirroring the consolidation in the transportation index. Currently both are in a very short-term trend higher and look poised to produce new gains next week. We are waiting for ABFS to breakout over the 50-dma before initiating new long plays. Our trigger is at $42.51 to go long. Our target will be the $46.00-46.50 range.


 

Picked on February 2 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 259 thousand

American Medical - AMMD - close: 40.74 chg: +0.00 stop: 37.99

AMMD continues to rebound from the bottom of it rising channel and technical support at the 100-dma. Technical oscillators are bullish and its MACD is in a buy signal but the stochastics suggest a short-term dip ahead. Look for a pull back toward the $40 level and consider buying a bounce. Our target is the $44-45 range and we want to see AMMD reach it before the February 17th earnings. We do not plan to hold over the earnings report.


 

Picked on February 1 at $40.55
Gain since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 02/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 286 thousand

Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 46.70 chg: +0.73 stop: 42.75

So far so good. We added CNQ on the breakout over resistance at $45.00 which also happens to be the neckline of its inverse or bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. The bullish pattern points to a $52.50 target but we're only targeting a move to the $49.50-50.00 range. If CNQ does dip look for a bounce near $45.00 as a new entry point.


 

Picked on February 1 at $45.84
Gain since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 428 thousand

Dow Chemical - DOW - close: 51.73 change: +0.58 stop: 49.50

We added DOW to the play list a couple of days ago but the play is still not opened yet. DOW has been consolidating sideways between 47.50 and 51.50 for weeks and while shares have broken through the top of this range we want to see some confirmation that a new leg higher has begun. Our trigger to go long is at $52.01. Until then we'll sit on the sidelines. Once triggered our eight-week target is the $56 region.


 

Picked on February 2 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

El Paso Corp - EP - close: 11.45 change: +0.25 stop: 10.85 *new*

Exit point alert! Shares of EP gained 2.2 percent on Friday with volume coming in above average. This is a new two-month high and EP came very close to tagging the bottom edge of our profit target range of 11.50-11.85. Readers can choose their own exit. Right now we're planning to close the play at 11.70. We're also raising our stop loss to $10.85.


 

Picked on January 13 at $10.61
Gain since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 03/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

Encore Acquisition - EAC - close: 39.34 change: +0.48 stop: 37.00*new*

Exit point alert! This is a tough position to be in. EAC like most of the oil sector is breaking out to new highs. Shares have been very strong and EAC is very close to our target at $40.00. Yet now the stock looks short-term overbought and due for a pull back. We suggest that readers strongly consider an exit here with EAC up 8.9 percent from our entry point. If the stock does dip look for a bounce from the $38 level. We're raising our stop loss to $37.00 and will promptly exit at $40 if given the chance.


 

Picked on January 27 at $36.10
Change since picked: + 3.24
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 173 thousand

Frontier Oil - FTO - close: 29.37 change: -0.02 stop: 27.75*new*

FTO is also enjoying the strength in the oil sector with new highs of its own. While shares did under perform on Friday they look poised to continue higher next week even though FTO is now short-term overbought. Our adjusted target is the $29.85 mark and will exit there if given the chance. We are raising our stop loss to $27.75. Readers may want to consider an exit here now that FTO is up 8.5 percent from our entry point.


 

Picked on January 27 at $27.05
Change since picked: + 2.32
Earnings Date 02/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand

General Electric - GE - close: 36.25 chg: +0.18 stop: 35.15

GE is the biggest stock in the world by market cap but shares of GE aren't moving very quickly. The stock churned mostly sideways this past week as it fights with the 40 and 50-dma's. Readers can initiate new positions over the $36.00 level but conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $36.50 to confirm the new upward trend. Our target remains the 37.75-38.00 range.


 

Picked on January 31 at $36.16
Gain since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 01/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.1 million

Waters Corp - WAT - close: 50.20 change: +0.49 stop: 46.95

Traders bought the dip towards $49.00 on Thursday and now WAT is breaking out over round-number resistance at the $50.00 mark again. We would use this strength as a bullish entry point. Our target is the $56.00 region.


 

Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand

Bearish Play Updates

Kohl's - KSS - close: 47.05 change: -0.20 stop: 47.01

We are still in wait mode with KSS. Shares are struggling under its three-month trend of lower highs, which is nested within the long-term three-year trend of lower highs. We want to short the breakdown under support at $45.00 and its potential trendline of support from April 2004. Our trigger is at 44.49. If triggered our target is 41-40.


 

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

Silver Std. Res. - SSRI - close: 11.70 chg: -0.18 stop: 12.55

Our bearish play in SSRI, while not moving quickly, does appear poised for further weakness. Shares did fail at the $12.25 level and continues to struggle with the upper band of its declining channel. We are targeting a drop toward the $10.00 range. While we would consider new positions at current levels more conservative traders can wait for a drop under $11.60 for a little confirmation.


 

Picked on January 30 at $11.97
Gain since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 575 thousand

Closed Long

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 38.40 change: -0.10 stop: 33.00

The market wide surge on Friday helped push ACI to $39.34, which is inside our profit target range of $39.00-40.00. We are closing the play at our target. Readers who choose to hang on should be ready for earnings on February 8th. We would not hold over the report.


 

Picked on December 13 at $34.71
Gain since picked: + 3.69
Earnings Date 02/08/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 951 thousand

Closed Short

Intel Corp - INTC - close: 23.00 change: +0.62 stop: 23.01

Prudential upgraded most of the semiconductor sector on Friday morning and that sparked a strong morning rally in the chip sector. When that rally failed to show any weakness midday shorts began to cover and the group experienced another surge higher on Friday afternoon. The SOX's breakout over its 50-dma is short-term bullish. Intel was not upgraded with the semiconductor group. Prudential reiterated their "neutral" rating instead but that did not stop INTC from ramping higher with the sector and shares hit our stop loss at $23.01 late Friday afternoon.


 

Picked on January 24 at $22.24
Gain since picked: + 0.76
Earnings Date 01/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 240 thousand

Synopsys - SNPS - close: 17.63 change: +0.74 stop: 17.55

The market surge on Friday and two-percent rally in the GSO software index was enough to spook some shorts in SNPS. The stock rallied sharply from the bottom of its trading range to breakout over resistance at the $17.50 level. We were stopped out at $17.55.


 

Picked on January 21 at $16.95
Gain since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 02/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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