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Long Play Updates

Arkansas Best - ABFS - close: 39.20 chg: -0.60 stop: 40.75

We remain spectators in ABFS as the play is not yet opened. The stock failed at the $42 level and its 50-dma and is now challenging support at the bottom of its recent trading range. Technicals are negative and today's decline was fueled by strong volume. We will probably close this play unopened tomorrow if it continues to decline.


Picked on February 2 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 259 thousand


American Medical - AMMD - close: 39.34 chg: -0.01 stop: 37.99

We don't like the action in AMMD. Yesterday the stock broke down below the $40.00 level and its technical oscillators are turning bearish. Odds are that AMMD will retest support at its rising 100-dma shortly. Conservative traders may want to consider exiting now to avoid further losses. We're going to keep the play open to see if shares can rebound from support.

Picked on February 1 at $40.55
Gain since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 02/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 286 thousand


El Paso Corp - EP - close: 11.30 change: +0.12 stop: 10.99 *new*

We are raising our stop loss to $10.99. Look for EP to continue higher tomorrow, especially given the strong performance for the natural gas index today. Right now we're planning to close the play at 11.70.

Picked on January 13 at $10.61
Gain since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 03/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million


Encore Acquisition - EAC - close: 39.39 change: +0.29 stop: 37.99*new*

We are raising our stop loss to $37.99. We suggest that short-term or conservative traders strongly consider exiting here for a profit. We are adjusting our target to $39.90.

Picked on January 27 at $36.10
Change since picked: + 3.29
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 173 thousand


Frontier Oil - FTO - close: 29.15 change: +0.72 stop: 27.99 *new*

We suggest that short-term or conservative traders strongly consider exiting here for a profit. We are raising our stop loss to $27.99. We do plan to exit at our target of $29.85.

Picked on January 27 at $27.05
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 02/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 212 thousand


Waters Corp - WAT - close: 49.50 change: -0.50 stop: 46.95

Be careful here with WAT. The drop back under the $50.00 level puts us on the defensive. Technical oscillators and indicators are pointing south. We might choose an early exit if WAT drops under the $48.50 level to avoid further losses. Bulls can always exit and re-enter on a rebound.

Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Smurfit-Stone - SSCC - close: 15.27 chg: -0.01 stop: 16.06 *new*

SSCC has continued to sink as we expected yet now the stock is challenging support at the $15.00 level. It's probably time for another bounce. Watch for SSCC to bounce probably into the 15.50-15.65 range before rolling over again. We're lowering our stop loss to $16.06 near the 21-dma.

Picked on February 7 at $15.82
Gain since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 01/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
 

Closed Long PLays

Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 50.75 chg: +2.98 stop: 42.75

Target achieved! CNQ rocketed out of the gate this morning with a small gap higher and then a run throughout the rest of the session to breakout above round-number, psychological resistance at the $50.00 mark on above average volume. These are new all-time highs for the stock and shares have closed above our target range of $49.50-50.00. We're closing the play at the $50 level and suggest readers do the same as the stock looks short-term overbought. We cannot find any specific news to account for the super strength today. Yet we did see a news release from the company this morning. In it CNQ talks about how financially stable they are and how they have built their plans around crude oil at $28 a barrel. Thus with oil this high near $47-50 CNQ's returns should be very profitable.


Picked on February 1 at $45.84
Gain since picked: + 4.91
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 428 thousand


General Electric - GE - close: 36.05 chg: -0.04 stop: 35.15

We're feeling cautious with the major averages right now even with today's show of strength. The lack of participation by GE in today's rally is disappointing and indicators suggest that GE is going to pull back soon. Patient traders willing to take the heat can let GE dip back toward rising technical support at the 100-dma where we would expect it to bounce. Right now we're being more defensive and would prefer to exit early to avoid further losses and choose to re-enter at a later date.

Picked on January 31 at $36.13
Gain since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 01/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Silver Std. Res. - SSRI - close: 13.01 chg: +1.09 stop: 12.55

Ouch! The price of silver soared with a 5.5 percent gain on Thursday helping push the XAU gold & silver index to a 3.9 percent rally. Helping fuel the move was a drop in the U.S. dollar. Shares of SSRI vaulted higher to breakout over the top of its descending channel and technical resistance at the 50-dma. We were stopped out at $12.55 for a 58-cent loss.

Picked on January 30 at $11.97
Gain since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 575 thousand
 

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