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Long Play Updates

Arkansas Best - ABFS - close: 40.42 chg: -0.60 stop: 40.75

ABFS remains a bullish candidate but the play is still unopened. The stock has not yet managed to build up enough steam to power through resistance at its 50-dma and the $42.50 mark. Our entry point to go long is at $42.51. We are keeping an eye on the Dow Jones Transportation index, which looks poised to breakout (or fail) at its own 50-dma. The level to watch is 3650. If the TRAN can trade through this level then it may give ABFS enough of a boost to power higher.


 

Picked on February 2 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 259 thousand

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Agilysys - AGYS - close: 18.69 chg: +0.02 stop: 16.99

AGYS is trading near all-time highs following Wednesday's powerful breakout over resistance at the $18.00 level. We like the technical breakout and its new P&F chart triple-top breakout buy signal with the $32 target. Our target is only the $20-21 range within the next six to eight weeks. Currently we would watch for AGYS to fill the gap from Thursday or pull back and retest the $18.00 level as support. Readers can watch for a drop back into the $18.00-18.30 range and then buy the bounce.


 

Picked on February 16 at $18.39
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 02/09/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Benchmark Electronic - BHE - cls: 31.73 chg: -0.16 stop: 31.49

We are still in a wait and watch mode with BHE. The stock has pulled back from its Tuesday breakout over the 50-dma and its MACD indicator doesn't look very healthy. At the moment we don't care since our entry point to open the play is at $33.51. However, we'll grow more concerned if BHE trades under the $31 level and may drop the stock from our play list.


 

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 453 thousand

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Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 31.85 chg: -0.52 stop: 31.99

Our bullish play in BRCM remains unopened. There was no follow through on Tuesday's breakout above the 200-dma and shares never got close to pushing through the $34.50 level. Our entry point to go long is currently at $34.55. BRCM has been sliding backward mainly because of weakness in the SOX index. You may remember that we pointed out how the SOX was testing major resistance at its 200-week moving average. Unfortunately for the bulls the SOX failed at this technical resistance (again). Keep an eye on both BRCM and the SOX together. If BRCM closes under $31.00 or if the SOX closes under the 200-dma we'll drop BRCM from the play list (at least as a potential long).


 

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.2 million

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Dow Chemical - DOW - close: 53.64 change: +0.09 stop: 51.50*new*

Shares of DOW were stronger early in this past week and have managed to maintain most of its gain. The new trading range appears to be the $53-54 region. However, we suspect that DOW may pull back and retest the $52 level before trading higher. We are going to raise our stop loss to $51.50 to reduce our exposure. Be sure to check out the chart below. You'll notice that DOW is testing a long-term resistance trendline dating back to 1999.


 

Picked on February 11 at $52.01
Gain since picked: + 1.63
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 34.38 chg: +0.73 stop: 32.00

Oil stocks or at least the OIX and OSX sector indices continued to climb into the weekend closing at all-time highs. Unfortunately, TSO, while inching higher, is still stuck under major resistance at the $35.00 level. Our entry point to open the play is at $35.15 so we're currently waiting for the breakout. We are a little bit worried that the oil sectors will pull back soon since they look overextended and readers should take that into account before considering a new position in TSO.


 

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Waters Corp - WAT - close: 48.60 change: -0.23 stop: 47.75*new*

WAT's three-and-a-half month up trend is still in place but shares are currently consolidating its January-February gains. We're disappointed with the breakdown under the $50.00 level but we suspect that WAT will bounce from support at the $48.00 level, which is underpinned by the 50-dma. However, we're going to reduce our risk by tightening the stop to $47.75. We would not consider new bullish positions until TSO bounced back above its simple 10-dma near the $50 mark. More aggressive traders can buy a bounce from $48.00.


 

Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.95 chg: -0.05 stop: 50.11

Slowly but surely BUD is sinking lower. The stock got a little help on Thursday when Barron's ran a negative article on the company. The reporter outlined concerns over lagging beer sales and tough competition for the king of beers. The long-term bearish trend remains intact and we want to remind our readers that this is a longer-term play. Our eight-to-ten week target is the $43-44 range.


 

Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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IAC/InterActiveCorp - IACI - close: 22.21 chg: +0.19 stop: 24.51

Believe it or not we are still not triggered in IACI. Shares saw some follow through on Thursday but held at the $22.00 level. The stock dipped again on Friday but only hit $21.97. Our entry point/trigger to go short is at $21.95. Don't be surprised to see IACI rally back toward the $23.00 level but we will be surprised if it trades above this mark. The $23 level was support in late January so it should be resistance today. Aggressive traders can use such a move as a new bearish entry point. We'll wait for the breakdown under $22.00. No change in target. Remember, this is somewhat higher risk given the above average short interest that makes IACI a potential short squeeze.


 

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

Closed Long PLays

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Closed Short Plays

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