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Long Play Updates

Agilysys - AGYS - close: 19.57 chg: +0.46 stop: 17.92*new*

AGYS displays its relative strength again. The stock added 2.4 percent on Thursday with shares hitting an intraday high of $19.89 before some afternoon profit taking. That's pretty close to our target range of $20.00-21.00. Now that AGYS closed at $19.57 the stock is up more than six percent from our entry point. Short-term players may want to consider taking some profits here. We're going to keep the play open and keep our target in the $20-21 range but traders should expect the $20 level to offer some round-number resistance and AGYS may have to consolidate under it for a while before breaking out. We are raising our stop loss to $17.92, the low last week.


 

Picked on February 16 at $18.39
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 02/09/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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First American - FAF - close: 36.15 chg: -0.35 stop: 35.29

A pull back toward support near the $36.00 level and its rising technical support at the 50-dma would not be out of the ordinary. We would probably expect FAF to consolidate a bit with the markets churning sideways. However, we were a little concerned by the sudden spike in volume. Today's volume was almost double the average and that could indicate more weakness ahead. Make sure you are comfortable with your stops if FAF breaks down unexpectedly. More conservative traders looking for a new bullish entry point might consider being patient and waiting for a new relative high over the $37.00 mark.


 

Picked on February 27 at $36.63
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 444 thousand

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Fairchild Semi - FCS - close: 16.74 chg: +0.09 stop: 15.99

The semiconductor sector has been somewhat volatile considering the mixed news hitting the wires today. Hynix Semiconductor, a Korean company, issued a pretty sour forecast for chip prices this year. Meanwhile the Semiconductor Industry Association issued a relatively positive report for January. Normally January is one of the weakest periods for the industry and the month turned out better than normal. Then there are the conflicting analyst viewpoints. A couple of days ago JP Morgan lifted the sector with an upgrade. Today there were some bearish comments made by rival firms. The SOX index lost 1.27 percent and continues to struggle with major resistance in its 200-week moving average. We would be very cautious here and wait for FCS to trade over the $17.50 level before considering new bullish positions.


 

Picked on March 01 at $17.37
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 01/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Waters Corp - WAT - close: 49.28 change: +0.40 stop: 47.75

The consolidation in shares of WAT appears to be improving. Support at the $48.00 level is holding and traders appear to be buying the dip at its slowly rising simple 50-dma. The MACD is nearing a new buy signal. Aggressive traders might want to use a bounce over $49.50 as a new entry point. We are still suggesting that most traders look for a little more confirmation and wait for a move over the $50.00 mark before considering new bullish plays.


 

Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand

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