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Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Catellus Dev. REIT - CDX - close: 28.11 chg: -0.66 stop: 27.15

Yuck! The REITs were hit by today's decline just like everyone else (save gold stocks). CDX lost 2.29 percent with a sharp drop at the open. We would be cautious here. The stock "should" have support at the $28.00 level and again at its simple 200-dma and exponential 200-dma near $27.50. We would not consider new bullish positions at this time. Instead we'll watch for a significant bounce from support listed above.


Picked on March 07 at $28.76
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 02/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 397 thousand


First American - FAF - close: 35.53 chg: -0.49 stop: 35.29

Red alert! FAF has broken down below support at the $36.00 level and technical support at its rising 50-dma. We are seriously surprised that today's decline didn't see more follow through and stop us out. Now in the last few months FAF has faked out the bears twice with a dip under support at the 50-dma. This could be one of them. However, we would strongly consider exiting here to minimize any losses but then again our stop loss is less than a quarter from here. We're going to let it ride. Nimble traders may actually want to watch for a possible bearish entry point if FAF breaks down under the $35.00 or $34.00 levels.


Picked on February 27 at $36.63
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 444 thousand


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 36.38 chg: -0.60 stop: 34.85 *new*

Danger! Today's market decline weighed heavily on the oil stocks. The OIX index lost 2.59 percent and closed under its simple 10-dma for the first time in weeks. The entire group could be heading for a significant pull back. We are going to try and minimize our risk by raising our stop loss to $34.85. Conservative traders may actually want to exit now to preserve any gains.


Picked on February 22 at $35.15
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 02/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Valassis Comm. - VCI - close: 36.61 chg: -0.67 stop: 34.75

Watch out! VCI has almost completely erased its recent gains and the stock is breaking down under its simple 10-dma. Technicals are bearish (like many stocks in the market today) but we are looking for VCI to find support at the $36.00 level.


Picked on February 23 at $36.12
Gain since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 02/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 337 thousand


Waters Corp - WAT - close: 48.60 change: -0.72 stop: 47.75

Once again WAT is testing support at its 50-dma and the $48.00 region. We would be cautious if you're long. Those looking for new positions can wait for a bounce back above the $50.00 mark.


Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.76 chg: -0.17 stop: 50.11

The recent spike looks like yet another failed rally and thus a new bearish entry point. Just remember that BUD doesn't move very fast and traders need to be patient to let its bearish trend work in our favor.


Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


Nabi Biopharma - NABI - close: 11.59 chg: +0.13 stop: 13.11

NABI started the day very weak but traders bought the dip near the $11.00 mark, which we suspected could be support (see original update). The fact that NABI closed green on such a bearish day is reason to be cautious. There is still plenty of overhead resistance but this could be a possible bullish reversal. We're not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. Instead we will watch for a failed rally under the $12.50 level or a drop back under $11.35 as a new bearish entry point.


Picked on March 06 at $11.80
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

Closed Long Plays

CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 35.20 chg: -0.87 stop: 35.39

CBG proved to be a dud. In the middle of the day CBG spiked lower on a sudden rise in volume (someone wanted out). Shares dipped to $33.50 before quickly rebounding but it was more than enough to hit our stop loss at 35.39. We cannot find any news to account for the spike.


Picked on March 07 at $37.15
Change since picked: - 1.95
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 466 thousand

Closed Short Plays

None today

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