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Long Play Updates

Arkansas Best - ABFS - close: 44.31 chg: -0.01 stop: 41.49

The Dow Transportation index is still trading near new highs but ABFS is struggling to catch up. Instead ABFS remains under resistance at the $45.00 level. This is not a good spot to consider new bullish positions, especially considering that our target is only 46.00-46.50. We would normally suggest looking for a dip back toward support in the $42-43 range but such a pull back is likely to produce a new MACD sell signal. Readers should be careful. Both the TRAN and the Industrials look vulnerable to more declines this coming week.


 

Picked on February 28 at $42.51
Gain since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 259 thousand

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Benchmark Electronic - BHE - cls: 32.15 chg: -0.25 stop: 31.49

We are still unopened in BHE as we wait for the stock to breakout over $33.50 level and its 100-dma. Our entry point to go long is $33.51. Currently BHE is testing support. If shares breakdown under $31.00 we will probably remove it from the list as a bullish candidate.


 

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 453 thousand

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Catellus Dev. REIT - CDX - close: 28.29 chg: -0.37 stop: 27.15

We are still attracted to CDX's double-bounce from its 200-dma but right now its momentum is fading. Readers can watch for a dip toward the $28.00-27.50 range and then buy a bounce. However, before considering new bullish positions be sure to confirm market direction (a.k.a. don't go long if the markets are declining). Our target remains the 30.50-31.00 range.


 

Picked on March 07 at $28.76
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 02/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 397 thousand

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Cox Radio - CXR - close: 16.97 chg: +0.13 stop: 15.99 *new*

Shares of CXR are holding up relatively well and have consolidated sideways unlike the major averages which have pulled back. We remain bullish and readers can use bounces above the $16.50 level as new entry points but we suggest confirming market direction before considering new longs. Our target remains the $18.50 region. The bullish P&F chart points to a $21 target. We are going to raise our stop loss to $15.99.


 

Picked on March 01 at $16.53
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Valassis Comm. - VCI - close: 36.76 chg: +0.22 stop: 34.75

VCI is beginning to bounce just as we suspected it might with broken resistance at $36.00 becoming new support. It is true that the recent pull back has produced a MACD sell signal so readers might be best served by looking for some confirmation of Friday's bounce before initiating new positions. Our target is unchanged in the $39.50-40.00 range.


 

Picked on February 23 at $36.12
Gain since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 02/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 337 thousand

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Waters Corp - WAT - close: 48.51 change: -0.57 stop: 47.99 *new*

The last couple of weeks have been an important test for WAT as it consolidates above the $48.00 level and its 50-dma. As long as it holds this level of support we should be okay but given the relative weakness in the major averages we are very cautious here. We are not suggesting new bullish positions until WAT trades back over the $50.00 level or better yet the $50.25 mark. We are going to raise our stop loss to $47.99.


 

Picked on February 2 at $50.20
Gain since picked: - 1.69
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 643 thousand

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.54 chg: -0.47 stop: 50.11

So far so good. BUD continues to deteriorate under a steady progression of lower highs and failed rallies. We remain bearish and continue to target the $43.00-44.00 range but we want to remind readers that we will exit before BUD's late April earnings report.


 

Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Countrywide Financial - CFC - close: 33.00 chg: -0.62 stop: 35.01

CFC continues to breakdown as investors exit the stock. Wall Street is concerned that rising interest rates will impact the profit margins on mortgage lenders like CFC. The technical breakdown a few days ago on big volume under the expoential 200-dma and the $34.00 level was the entry point. We are targeting a drop to 30.35-30.50.


 

Picked on March 09 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Nabi Biopharma - NABI - close: 11.52 chg: +0.04 stop: 13.11

The decline in shares of NABI has temporarily paused but the outlook remains bearish. Shares have broken down through support at the $12.00 level on with multiple days of heavy volume on the declines. The P&F chart is so bearish it points to zero. Currently the stock is a little bit short-term oversold so we're looking for a possible bounce back to $12.00 before it heads lower again. In the original play description we did mention that NABI might have support at the $11.00 mark and thus far that has held true so conservative traders can watch this level carefully.


 

Picked on March 06 at $11.80
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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NY Times - NYT - close: 36.21 chg: -0.13 stop: 37.35 *new*

NYT continues to wither under a stream of lower highs. The stock looks poised to breakdown under minor support at the $36.00 level. We continue to target a move into the 32.50-33.50 range. Readers looking for new positions can watch for a new relative low at 35.85 as a new entry point. We are lowering our stop loss to 37.35.

Picked on February 20 at $37.20
Gain since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 01/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 516 thousand

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Energy Select Spdr - XLE - close: 42.80 chg: +0.35 stop: 45.15

The oil sector managed a meager bounce on Friday following the two-day bearish reversal. We remain short-term bearish but long-term bullish on oil and the oil stocks. We would use any failed rally under $44.00 as a new bearish entry point as we target a quick drop toward the $40.00 region. That's where we expect investors to attempt to buy the dip.


 

Picked on March 09 at $43.33
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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