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Long Play Updates

Cox Radio - CXR - close: 16.60 chg: -0.22 stop: 15.99

CXR has pulled back to support at the $16.50 level. The late afternoon bounce looks like a possible bullish entry point but we suggest caution. The technical oscillators don't look so hot, especially the MACD indicator. At this point it may be best to wait for a move over the $17.00 level before considering new positions.

Picked on March 01 at $16.53
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Valassis Comm. - VCI - close: 35.37 chg: -0.57 stop: 34.75

This is it! VCI has pulled back to support at the $35.00 level. It's time to bounce or break (down). Considering the above average volume on VCI's decline on Friday traders should be on their guard. If it were not for our suspicion that the major averages look ready to bounce early next week we would be tempted to close VCI here. We are not suggesting new bullish plays until VCI trades back over the $36.50 level.

Picked on February 23 at $36.12
Gain since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 02/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 337 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.60 chg: +0.20 stop: 50.11

There is little change in BUD's short-term and long-term trend. The stock continues to drift lower albeit very slowly. We are only willing to hold this play open until its late April earnings report, where we will close the play before BUD announces earnings. Considering BUD's current rate of decline traders may actually want to exit and look for faster moving candidates.

Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Countrywide Financial - CFC - close: 32.63 chg: -0.11 stop: 35.01

CFC continues to sink and shares hit a new relative low on Friday. Unfortunately for the bears CFC did manage a decent bounce in the last hour of trading. We suspect that markets will bounce next week so traders should be careful with bearish plays in CFC. Look for a rally back towards the $34.00 level. A failed rally under $34.00 could be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on March 09 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 12.23 chg: -0.07 stop: 13.01

FLEX is performing as expected with shares failing near resistance at the 12.50 level. While the stock looks poised to move lower be careful. If the markets bounce we could see FLEX trade up toward the 10-dma near $12.70. The same holds true for the SOX. The SOX looks weak with Friday's drop under the 200-dma but it could retrace to the 420 level before turning lower again. Our target remains the 10.00-10.25 range.

Picked on March 16 at $11.95
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Nabi Biopharma - NABI - close: 12.26 chg: +0.24 stop: 13.11

NABI has bounced back toward its descending trendline of resistance. This is an important test and if shares breakout over its simple 50-dma it could mean a trend reversal. That's not good news if the markets bounce next week. We're going to tighten our stop loss to $12.75. More aggressive traders can leave their stop above the 200-dma near the $13.00 level. Keep an eye on the BTK biotech index.

Picked on March 06 at $11.80
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand

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NY Times - NYT - close: 36.20 chg: -0.04 stop: 37.35

NYT continues to consolidate near support at the $36.00 level. The trend remains bearish but until shares break down under the 36.00 mark this is a dangerous spot to consider new positions. Wait for the breakdown. The 21-dma directly overhead was resistance last week and should act as resistance this week.

Picked on February 20 at $37.20
Gain since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 01/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 516 thousand

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ScanSource - SCSC - close: 57.04 chg: +1.15 stop: 60.51 *new*

Our last update on SCSC said look for an oversold bounce but it showed up a little bit sooner than we expected. We would watch the simple 10-dma overhead to act as resistance. A failed rally there (58.20) could be used as a new bearish entry point. We are going to lower our stop loss to $60.51

Picked on March 13 at $ 57.58
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 95 thousand

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United Industrial Crp. - UIC - cls: 29.15 chg: -0.08 stop: 31.51

UIC is a new play from Thursday's newsletter. There is very little change in the stock price and our strategy remains the same. A reprint of the original play description follows:

Looking at what UIC's products and services one would think they are in the right industry for growth. Military logistics and unmanned vehicles are sure to be growth industries. UIC's earnings report yesterday proved that with what sounded like an outstanding quarter for the company. Too bad the 39 cents per share came in below analyst estimates. The stock reacted poorly today and broke down under its simple and exponential 200-dma in addition to breaking down under the $30.00 mark on strong volume that was more than double the norm. Technicals are obviously bearish here and its P&F chart is in a sell signal pointing to a $20.00 target. We are targeting a drop into the $26.00-25.00 range. If UIC produces an oversold bounce tomorrow look for resistance and a failed rally in the $30.00-31.00 region.

Picked on March 17 at $29.23
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 03/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 181 thousand

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West Marine - WMAR - close: 21.05 chg: -0.15 stop: 23.11

WMAR is a new play from Thursday's newsletter. There is very little change in the stock's price and our strategy remains the same. What follows is a reprint of Thursday's play description:

WMAR has been stuck in a trading range between $22.00 and $25.00 for most of the last 4 1/2 months. Shares tried to breakout in early February but failed near $27.00. Since then the stock has been sliding save for a brief five-day bounce just before earnings in early March. The earnings report was disappointing and WMAR has continued to slide ever since. Now the stock has broken down below its 200-dma and the bottom of its trading range at $22.00 on volume over twice the average. The next stop looks like the $19.00 level where shares bounced in October. We are going to target the $19.00 region. Readers can be patient and look for an oversold bounce back toward $22.00-22.25 and then short a failed rally there.

Picked on March 17 at $21.20
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 03/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 155 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Catellus Dev. REIT - CDX - close: 27.72 chg: -0.29 stop: 27.15

We were very tempted to hold CDX. The stock is flirting with a breakdown under support near $27.50 and its exponential and simple 200-dma's. We suspect that the major stock averages will bounce early next week and carry CDX with it but shares of CDX have broken its six-week trendline of higher lows and its technical oscillators are looking weak with a new MACD sell signal.

Picked on March 07 at $28.76
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 02/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 397 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Energy Select Spdr - XLE - close: 43.78 chg: +0.39 stop: 45.15

The price of crude oil has continued to rise and the OIX oil index turned in a one-percent rally on Friday to breakout above its recent consolidation. The XLE followed suit and pushed through the top of its recent consolidation. While the XLE has not yet broken through the $44.00 level we're going to exit anyway to keep our loss at a minimum.

Picked on March 09 at $43.33
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

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