Long Play Updates
Amer. Egl Outftr - AEOS - cls: 28.75 chg: -0.80 stop: 26.85*new*
AEOS spiked higher on Friday morning and came within four cents of our short-term target at the $30.00 mark. Unfortunately weakness in the broader markets and a significant breakdown in retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT) weighed on the retail stocks. The action in AEOS on Friday produced a bearish engulfing candlestick. This is short-term bearish. We remain bullish on the stock but we would expect AEOS to pull back again toward technical support at its 40 or 50-dma. Readers can watch for a drop toward the $27.50-27.00 level and use a bounce from support as a new bullish entry point. We are raising our stop loss to $26.85.
Picked on March 28 at $28.19
Cox Radio - CXR - close: 17.35 chg: +0.54 stop: 16.45
It looks like our patience might pay off after all. CXR bucked the market weakness and added 3.2 percent on heavy volume this Friday. The move was sparked by a broker upgrade. Short-term technicals are positive again and its MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal. This breakout over the $17.00 level (and $17.25 mark) is a new seven-month high. Readers can choose to go long at current levels or look for a pull back toward the $17.00 level. Our target remains the $18.50 region but we plan to exit before CXR's late April earnings report.
Picked on March 01 at $16.53
Fresh Del Monte - FDP - close: 30.51 chg: -0.01 stop: 29.89
We are encouraged that FDP did not participate in the market's sell-off this past Friday. However, we remain cautious since the stock has not seen in follow through on its technical breakout two weeks ago. FDP still has support at the $30.00 level but we suggest readers wait for a move back over $31.00 before considering new bullish positions. Plus, we would keep an eye on FDP's main rival Chiquita (CQB). Shares of CQB look vulnerable to more profit taking. If CQB declines next week it could be drag on FDP.
Picked on March 22 at $30.82
Innovative Solutions. - ISSC - cls: 31.60 chg: -0.15 stop: 29.49
We remain cautious with ISSC. If the major averages and the tech sector continue to weaken then we expect ISSC to test the $30.00 level as support. Currently the pull back in ISSC has soured the technical indicators. We would not suggest new bullish positions at this time until we see a significant rebound. We are also going to raise our stop loss to $29.49.
Picked on March 22 at $31.50
Technical Olympic - TOA - cls: 24.46 chg: +0.30 stop: 23.45*new*
The home building sector was one of the best performing groups on Friday. The DJUSHB index added 1.7 percent and TOA followed with a 1.24 percent gain. The stock also split 5-for-4 and we have adjusted our entry, target and stop loss for the split. Shares of TOA bounced from the $23.83, the intraday low on Friday, and this could be a new bullish entry point. Just be sure to keep an eye on the DJUSHB index and the major averages. We would hesitate to consider new longs if the sector index or the market averages are declining.
Picked on March 22 at $24.36
Talbots - TLB - close: 31.42 chg: -0.56 stop: 30.49
TLB started Friday's session off strong but weakness in the major indices and a breakdown in retail giant Wal-mart (WMT) weighed on the stock. TLB pulled back toward the $31 level before traders bought the dip. If you look at the intraday chart you can see how volume soared in the late afternoon bounce. We would use this dip as a new bullish entry point but be sure to confirm market direction first. More conservative traders might not want to start new long positions if the major averages are sinking. For those who missed the Thursday play description for TLB a reprint follows:
The RLX retail index may not look so hot thanks to a breakdown in retail titan Wal-Mart (WMT) but that's not stopping shares of TLB. TLB broke through major resistance at the $30.00 level and its 200-dma in early March. Since then the stock has consolidated backwards but found new support near the $31 level. If you look at its daily chart you can see how TLB is climbing in a channel-like pattern (see chart below). Currently the stock is beginning to bounce off the bottom of this rising channel, which offers traders a great bullish entry point. There is resistance near $34 but we suspect that TLB will be able to trade higher thanks to the current bullish pattern. Our target is the $35.50-36.00 range. Our time frame is about six weeks.
Picked on March 31 at $31.98
Short Play Updates
Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.13 chg: -0.26 stop: 48.41*new*
We do not have much new to report on for BUD. The stock remains stuck in its down trend. More importantly to us the stock appears to be on the verge of breaking down from its short-term sideways consolidation. We only have a few weeks left before BUD's earnings report and we plan to exit before they announce. Shares are not moving very quickly so keep that in mind. Our target remains the $43-44 range. We are lowering the stop loss to $48.41.
Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Countrywide Fncl - CFC - close: 31.80 chg: -0.66 stop: 34.05
CFC followed the action of the banking indices on Friday. Financials were up early in the session but quickly rolled over to end the day with a loss. The failed rally in CFC looks like a new bearish entry point. However, be advised that our target remains the $30.50-30.35 range.
Picked on March 09 at $33.36
Flextronics - FLEX - close: 11.90 chg: -0.14 stop: 12.55
Weakness in the SOX and NASDAQ helped turn FLEX's early strength into a retreat. The stock broke down under support at the $12.00 mark for the first time in two weeks. This looks like a new bearish entry point. Our target remains the $10.25-10.00 range but we plan to exit before the late April earnings report. The P&F chart's sell signal points to a $9.50 target.
on March 16 at $11.95
Symyx Tech. - SMMX - close: 22.09 chg: +0.04 stop: 24.51
We do not have much new to report on for SMMX. The stock continues to sink lower. Shares have significant resistance at the $24.00 level and its 200-dma. SMMX also has short-term trading resistance at the descending 10-dma. Our target remains the $20.00 region. More conservative traders may want to exit near $20.50 to beat the rush.
Picked on March 21 at $23.79
United Industrial Crp. - UIC - cls: 29.61 chg: -0.01 stop: 31.51
UIC broke down under very significant support a little more than two weeks ago. Since then the stock has consolidated those losses in a mostly sideways pattern under the $30.00 level. The slight upward trend in the consolidation has given some technical oscillators a positive tint to them. We believe that UIC is close to beginning the next leg lower. Currently the P&F chart's sell signal points to a $20 target. We are targeting a move into the $26-25 range. We would use a drop back under the $29.00 level as a new bearish entry point.
Picked on March 17 at $29.23
West Marine - WMAR - close: 20.56 chg: -0.70 stop: 23.11
WMAR had produced an oversold bounce back toward its trendline of lower highs. Friday's market sell-off helped produce another failed rally at this trendline and readers can use it as a new bearish entry point. We are going to lower our stop loss to $22.11, just over the 21-dma but under the simple 200-dma. Volume on Friday's 3.2 percent decline was more than double the average suggesting more weakness ahead.
on March 17 at $21.20
Closed Long Plays
Syneron Medical - ELOS - close: 30.23 chg: -1.63 stop: 29.99
Bad news. The recent bounce from support at the $30.00 level has reversed. ELOS dipped to $29.76 on Friday stopping us out at $29.99. Shares close just over the $30 level but painted a bearish engulfing candlestick. The MACD indicator has produced a new sell signal although ELOS probably has more support near the $28.00 mark.
Picked on March 21 at $33.65
Closed Short Plays