Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Amer. Egl Outftr - AEOS - cls: 30.13 chg: +0.58 stop: 27.25*new*

Ding! AEOS has achieved our short-term target at the $30.00 level. We suggest that conservative traders consider exiting here or significantly tighten their stop. We're setting a secondary target at $32.00 and raising our stop loss to $27.25.

Picked on March 28 at $28.19
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 05/14/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


Fresh Del Monte - FDP - close: 30.75 chg: +0.27 stop: 29.99*new*

We have been suggesting that readers wait for a move over $31.00 before considering any new bullish entries. FDP did trade over $31.00 and its simple 50-dma this afternoon. Unfortunately, shares were unable to maintain these gains. We would have gone long this afternoon anyway and readers still looking for new positions can watch for another rally through today's high at $31.07. We're inching up our stop loss to $29.99.

Picked on March 22 at $30.82
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 201 thousand


Forest Oil - FST - close: 41.98 chg: -0.64 stop: 38.49

No change from our previous update on 04/04/05.

Picked on April 03 at $42.00
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 05/09/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Talbots - TLB - close: 32.80 chg: +0.55 stop: 30.49

No change from our previous update dated 04/03/05.

Picked on March 31 at $31.98
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 05/18/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 408 thousand

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 47.44 chg: +0.28 stop: 48.41

It was another boring day for BUD bears during the regular trading hours. However, after the closing bell BUD reported that Q1 domestic beer sales volumes were below expectations. The company guided Q1 profits into the 63-64 cent range. Analysts consensus estimates are at 64 cents. The stock was trading close to $47.00 after hours and we expect this weakness to carry through into tomorrow's session.

Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


Countrywide Fncl - CFC - close: 31.55 chg: +0.01 stop: 34.05

No change from our previous update dated 04/04/05.

Picked on March 09 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million


Flextronics - FLEX - close: 11.92 chg: -0.03 stop: 12.55

No change from our previous update dated 04/03/05.

Picked on March 16 at $11.95
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million


West Marine - WMAR - close: 20.96 chg: +0.47 stop: 22.01 *new*

There isn't much change in WMAR but the stock is bouncing from the $20.00 level today. We are going to lower our stop loss to $22.01. WMAR should have short-term resistance near the $21.50-21.65 range.

Picked on March 17 at $21.20
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 03/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 155 thousand

Closed Long Plays

Innovative Solutions. - ISSC - cls: 33.79 chg: -0.11 stop: 29.49

Target achieved. ISSC continued yesterday's rally into Tuesday morning and the stock climbed to $35.85 before turning lower. This was more than enough to hit our target and exit point at $35.00. The bad news for those who did not exit was the afternoon sell-off. Volume was pretty strong today and the move looks like a short-term top. We are closing the play per our exit at $35.00.

Picked on March 22 at $31.50
Change since picked: + 2.29
Earnings Date 01/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 193 thousand


Technical Olympic - TOA - cls: 24.73 chg: +0.63 stop: 23.45

Target achieved! TOA gapped higher to open at $25.45 and then traded to a high of $25.69 before turning lower today. We don't see any specific news or catalyst to explain the gap higher but volume was very heavy at the opening bell. The stock traded up and through our target and exit at the $25.50 level. Traders who did not exit need to be prepared for more weakness. TOA looks poised to fill the gap from this morning and probably trade back to the $24.00 level. We're closing the play per our target at $25.50.

Picked on March 22 at $24.36
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 135 thousand

Closed Short Plays

Symyx Tech. - SMMX - close: 22.70 chg: +0.47 stop: 24.51

The pop in SMMX may not look like much but the stock is just now starting to breakout from its narrow descending channel. The overall picture remains bearish but short-term SMMX is oversold and the two-day bounce has turned technical oscillators bullish. We would rather exit here with a small (hypothetical) gain and watch SMMX for another failed rally-bearish-entry point at resistance near $24.00 and its 200-dma.

Picked on March 21 at $23.79
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 02/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 173 thousand

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