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In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Amer. Egl Outftr - AEOS - cls: 29.77 chg: -0.41 stop: 27.25

No change from previous update on 04/05/05. Early morning weakness was caused by a downgrade from "out perform" to "market perform". Yet it looks like traders bought the dip to the $29.00 level today. AEOS reported March same-store sales growth of +29.2 percent, which was above analyst estimates. AEOS also raised their earnings guidance for Q1.

Picked on March 28 at $28.19
Change since picked: + 1.52
Earnings Date 05/14/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Fresh Del Monte - FDP - close: 30.58 chg: -0.29 stop: 29.99

No change from previous update on 04/05/05.

Picked on March 22 at $30.82
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 201 thousand

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Forest Oil - FST - close: 42.05 chg: -0.70 stop: 38.49

No change from our previous update on 04/04/05. We are expecting FST to see some weakness. Look for a bounce from the $40-41 range.

Picked on April 03 at $42.00
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 05/09/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Global Imaging - GISX - close: 36.36 chg: +0.66 stop: 34.65

Good news. GISX did not see any follow through on yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. The stock is bouncing. More aggressive traders can use the bounce as a new entry point. We still suggest waiting for a move over $36.50.

Picked on April 05 at $36.50
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 04/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Anheuser Busch - BUD - close: 46.10 chg: +0.45 stop: 47.01

BUD produced an oversold bounce today and shares look poised to continue bouncing tomorrow. Look for resistance at $46.50 and again near $47.00.

Picked on February 7 at $48.32
Gain since picked: - 2.22
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Flextronics - FLEX - close: 11.99 chg: -0.17 stop: 12.55

No change from previous updates on 04/03/05 and 04/06/05.

Picked on March 16 at $11.95
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Westlake Chem. - WLK - close: 30.40 chg: +0.38 stop: 32.01

No change from previous update on 04/06/05. Our entry point to go short is at $29.19.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand

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West Marine - WMAR - close: 21.03 chg: -0.13 stop: 22.01

No change from our previous update dated 04/05/05.

Picked on March 17 at $21.20
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 03/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 155 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Talbots - TLB - close: 29.30 chg: -3.55 stop: 30.49

Ouch! TLB lost more than 10 percent on big volume. The company reported March same-store sales that were under analysts' estimates. To make matters even worse TLB guided its Q1 earnings lower, slightly below analysts' estimates. The stock gapped open lower to open at $30.05, which is below our stop loss. We would have been immediately taken out at $30.05 and that's where we close the play. This is a dramatic reversal and traders can look for TLB to continue lower.

Picked on March 31 at $31.98
Change since picked: - 2.68
Earnings Date 05/18/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 408 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Countrywide Fncl - CFC - close: 32.89 chg: +0.58 stop: 34.05

Watch out! The banking indices have rallied back to challenge the top of their descending channels. Meanwhile CFC has just barely broken out through the top of its descending channel. We're going to play it safe and exit here. More aggressive players might want to consider leaving the play open as CFC still has what should be tough overhead resistance near $34.00.

Picked on March 09 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
 

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